Author Topic: Robots and their impact on the future  (Read 360186 times)

Bakari

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1350 on: March 17, 2017, 08:39:45 AM »
I actually think you would stand a better chance at a good return if you invested industry wide in industries that will most likely benefit from automation rather than trying to pick winners in the industry building the robots. Sticking to the regular strategy myself though.


If the speculation of most people in this thread turns out to be correct, that will likely be almost all of them.

They are speculating on the industry as a whole, not the individual companies. There are plenty of opportunities for competition between these companies and also for many to try to ride the wave and crash.


You misunderstood me. 
Responding to " if you invested industry wide in industries that will most likely benefit from automation rather than trying to pick winners in the industry"
I'm saying the industries likely to benefit from automation are all of them, presuming robots and AI can eventually (possibly in our lifetimes) take over all meaningful labor, with the only human jobs left being those that have value for sentimental or principal reasons
i.e. some people may prefer a human psychologist, artist, musician, or prostitute over an AI or robot even if the AI is technically "better" at the job.Aside from that, if nearly 100% of jobs are replaced with robots that don't require any salary, every industry will benefit. 
Therefor the best investment strategy would be, as always, broad total market index funds.

prognastat

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1351 on: March 17, 2017, 08:48:10 AM »
I actually think you would stand a better chance at a good return if you invested industry wide in industries that will most likely benefit from automation rather than trying to pick winners in the industry building the robots. Sticking to the regular strategy myself though.


If the speculation of most people in this thread turns out to be correct, that will likely be almost all of them.

They are speculating on the industry as a whole, not the individual companies. There are plenty of opportunities for competition between these companies and also for many to try to ride the wave and crash.


You misunderstood me. 
Responding to " if you invested industry wide in industries that will most likely benefit from automation rather than trying to pick winners in the industry"
I'm saying the industries likely to benefit from automation are all of them, presuming robots and AI can eventually (possibly in our lifetimes) take over all meaningful labor, with the only human jobs left being those that have value for sentimental or principal reasons
i.e. some people may prefer a human psychologist, artist, musician, or prostitute over an AI or robot even if the AI is technically "better" at the job.Aside from that, if nearly 100% of jobs are replaced with robots that don't require any salary, every industry will benefit. 
Therefor the best investment strategy would be, as always, broad total market index funds.

Ah my mistake, I agree most if not all will, but some are likely to sooner than others, such as industries that heavily rely on transport of good or people. However I am not going to take the risk myself and would rather stick to trying to have my investments match the market as a whole.

theadvicist

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1352 on: March 20, 2017, 09:10:04 AM »
Autonomous electric shared vehicles seem's like a great sweet spot to me.  The downside of the electric vehicle is range, but if you can essentially swap cars out as others charge periodically, that goes away.  The upside of the electric vehicles is far fewer parts that can break, so much less on repairs.  Seems like Telsla could have a niche here in the future. 


Kind of like how messengers used to swap out horses on a long but fast journey! If you don't own the horse/car it's no problem to just swap it for a new one and leave the old one where it ran out.

theadvicist

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1353 on: March 20, 2017, 09:13:04 AM »
How twisted is it that we are developing robots that can basically do everybody's work for them, yet people are not getting free money and extra leisure time as a result? How the Hell did we screw that up?

Well, that's not true everywhere. Many of my friends who are parents work part-time, and still enjoy and incredible standard of living. Here in the UK, an expectant mother gets a year off, with some pay.

I definitely see a move towards people doing fewer hours at work and enjoying more leisure time in my circle. And lifetime hours? Definitely far fewer. Most people I know retire in their 50s.

Just Joe

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1354 on: March 20, 2017, 09:27:31 AM »
Autonomous electric shared vehicles seem's like a great sweet spot to me.  The downside of the electric vehicle is range, but if you can essentially swap cars out as others charge periodically, that goes away.  The upside of the electric vehicles is far fewer parts that can break, so much less on repairs.  Seems like Telsla could have a niche here in the future. 


Kind of like how messengers used to swap out horses on a long but fast journey! If you don't own the horse/car it's no problem to just swap it for a new one and leave the old one where it ran out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5V0vL3nnHY

It's already possible. People just need the financial motivation to do it. If gasoline went up $5 per gallon, things would change. Won't change while the markets are flooded with cheap gasoline. I figure we as consumers are currently just being trained to desire 350+ HP and not settle for pokey economy cars or electrics for another generation.

Funny how folks fret over a dime or a nickel when gasoline prices fluctuate but don't bat an eye at spending $35K+ on a vehicle to wear out on a daily commute. You'd think people would wear out a cheap used car and save the nice one for special occasions.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1355 on: March 21, 2017, 05:48:05 AM »
Autonomous electric shared vehicles seem's like a great sweet spot to me.  The downside of the electric vehicle is range, but if you can essentially swap cars out as others charge periodically, that goes away.  The upside of the electric vehicles is far fewer parts that can break, so much less on repairs.  Seems like Telsla could have a niche here in the future. 


Kind of like how messengers used to swap out horses on a long but fast journey! If you don't own the horse/car it's no problem to just swap it for a new one and leave the old one where it ran out.
But it does become much more of a hassle for one's four kids and 80 year old grandmother to have to move luggage and car seats and do a fire drill every 200 miles on their summer trip to WallyWorld.

theadvicist

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1356 on: March 21, 2017, 07:10:51 AM »
Autonomous electric shared vehicles seem's like a great sweet spot to me.  The downside of the electric vehicle is range, but if you can essentially swap cars out as others charge periodically, that goes away.  The upside of the electric vehicles is far fewer parts that can break, so much less on repairs.  Seems like Telsla could have a niche here in the future. 


Kind of like how messengers used to swap out horses on a long but fast journey! If you don't own the horse/car it's no problem to just swap it for a new one and leave the old one where it ran out.
But it does become much more of a hassle for one's four kids and 80 year old grandmother to have to move luggage and car seats and do a fire drill every 200 miles on their summer trip to WallyWorld.

The other option is keep the car, swap out the battery. That's what the Tesla link above was showing.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1357 on: March 21, 2017, 07:27:26 AM »
Autonomous electric shared vehicles seem's like a great sweet spot to me.  The downside of the electric vehicle is range, but if you can essentially swap cars out as others charge periodically, that goes away.  The upside of the electric vehicles is far fewer parts that can break, so much less on repairs.  Seems like Telsla could have a niche here in the future. 


Kind of like how messengers used to swap out horses on a long but fast journey! If you don't own the horse/car it's no problem to just swap it for a new one and leave the old one where it ran out.
But it does become much more of a hassle for one's four kids and 80 year old grandmother to have to move luggage and car seats and do a fire drill every 200 miles on their summer trip to WallyWorld.

The other option is keep the car, swap out the battery. That's what the Tesla link above was showing.
That is a much better idea, though probably more expensive in terms of infrastructure than a simple charging station.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1358 on: March 21, 2017, 09:58:42 AM »
Autonomous electric shared vehicles seem's like a great sweet spot to me.  The downside of the electric vehicle is range, but if you can essentially swap cars out as others charge periodically, that goes away.  The upside of the electric vehicles is far fewer parts that can break, so much less on repairs.  Seems like Telsla could have a niche here in the future. 


Kind of like how messengers used to swap out horses on a long but fast journey! If you don't own the horse/car it's no problem to just swap it for a new one and leave the old one where it ran out.
But it does become much more of a hassle for one's four kids and 80 year old grandmother to have to move luggage and car seats and do a fire drill every 200 miles on their summer trip to WallyWorld.

The other option is keep the car, swap out the battery. That's what the Tesla link above was showing.
That is a much better idea, though probably more expensive in terms of infrastructure than a simple charging station.

Since they are offering that as a feature already, I think all of the supercharge stations have the ability to do it (or will).

MrMoneySaver

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1359 on: March 21, 2017, 10:05:52 AM »
How twisted is it that we are developing robots that can basically do everybody's work for them, yet people are not getting free money and extra leisure time as a result? How the Hell did we screw that up?

Well, that's not true everywhere. Many of my friends who are parents work part-time, and still enjoy and incredible standard of living. Here in the UK, an expectant mother gets a year off, with some pay.

I definitely see a move towards people doing fewer hours at work and enjoying more leisure time in my circle. And lifetime hours? Definitely far fewer. Most people I know retire in their 50s.
Seems to be the opposite of the US. Here it's like a contest to see who can brag about working the most hours. And the majority seem to have fully bought into the idea that they'll work till they're 70 or older.

theadvicist

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1360 on: March 21, 2017, 10:14:32 AM »
How twisted is it that we are developing robots that can basically do everybody's work for them, yet people are not getting free money and extra leisure time as a result? How the Hell did we screw that up?

Well, that's not true everywhere. Many of my friends who are parents work part-time, and still enjoy and incredible standard of living. Here in the UK, an expectant mother gets a year off, with some pay.

I definitely see a move towards people doing fewer hours at work and enjoying more leisure time in my circle. And lifetime hours? Definitely far fewer. Most people I know retire in their 50s.
Seems to be the opposite of the US. Here it's like a contest to see who can brag about working the most hours. And the majority seem to have fully bought into the idea that they'll work till they're 70 or older.

Ugh, that is so lame. I was still thinking about this issue when I read this comment on the MPP thread https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/mustachian-people-problems-(just-for-fun)/msg1469672/#msg1469672

Seems some countries are ensuring that people are "getting free money and extra leisure time" (I use the phrase 'leisure time' as I was quoting someone else who was referred to reduced hours of work. I of course understand that learning sign language so as to communicate with one's son and the wider community is not really 'leisure' time per se, I just mean that it is not time working).

(let me know if it's not the done thing to link to other thread, unsure of forum etiquette on this).

Interesting to see how different countries deal with this legislatively. I must say, when the UK stopped companies 'retiring' people at set ages (claiming it was age discrimination) I did think it was kind of counter-productive in the long-run.

tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1361 on: March 24, 2017, 08:13:02 AM »
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/24/robots-could-threaten-four-out-of-10-us-jobs-by-2030.html

The fact that it is not on his radar may be the most worrisome part of the article. Sounds like the GOP's position on Global Warming.

"The 15-year timeline does not appear to be shared by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, however. In comments made to Axios Media Friday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that he was not worried about the mass displacement of U.S. workers by robots and could be a century before a labor crisis eventuates.
"It's not even on our radar screen.... 50-100 more years," Mnuchin said."

prognastat

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1362 on: March 24, 2017, 08:19:52 AM »
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/24/robots-could-threaten-four-out-of-10-us-jobs-by-2030.html

The fact that it is not on his radar may be the most worrisome part of the article. Sounds like the GOP's position on Global Warming.

"The 15-year timeline does not appear to be shared by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, however. In comments made to Axios Media Friday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that he was not worried about the mass displacement of U.S. workers by robots and could be a century before a labor crisis eventuates.
"It's not even on our radar screen.... 50-100 more years," Mnuchin said."

This is my main concern, the sheer amount of ignorance when it comes to the rapid improvements in technology constantly happening. I personally think UBI eventually will be necessary, however most of all I feel that we should be at least talking about these things on a political level right now. Saying 50-100 years shows just how ignorant he is on the topic.

Just Joe

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1363 on: March 24, 2017, 01:42:59 PM »
I agree. Maybe it IS being discussed behind closed doors but not openly in front of the media yet b/c they aren't ready for us little people to discuss it. ;)

prognastat

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1364 on: March 24, 2017, 01:48:05 PM »
I agree. Maybe it IS being discussed behind closed doors but not openly in front of the media yet b/c they aren't ready for us little people to discuss it. ;)

For some maybe, but I get the feeling that many politicians are quite ignorant as to what happens in the technology sectors.

Just Joe

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1365 on: March 24, 2017, 02:12:38 PM »
I always assumed that those people get to see the latest and greatest information before the rest of us do. The corporate crystal ball as it were.

Maybe they are just led this way and that by lobbyists?

prognastat

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1366 on: March 24, 2017, 02:17:06 PM »
I always assumed that those people get to see the latest and greatest information before the rest of us do. The corporate crystal ball as it were.

Maybe they are just led this way and that by lobbyists?

The latter is more of the feeling I got, when you look at some of the discussions that are had or the people on technology committee's for the government that seem to lack the basic understanding of current technology and also the changes that are right on the doorstep.

AlanStache

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1367 on: March 24, 2017, 02:18:47 PM »
Believing in a grand conspiracy where competent leaders are secretly working for some hidden goal is in some ways comforting; but I have trouble seeing any proof of this. 

On some level I would like to think that the Trump/GOP's failure to repeal & replace the ACA today was part of a larger strategy to move us towards single payer.   ie the ACA is the best we can do in our current system and it sucks so lets try single payer like everyone else since they are all having better luck than we are...

Any takers on that one? 

prognastat

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1368 on: March 24, 2017, 02:22:39 PM »
Believing in a grand conspiracy where competent leaders are secretly working for some hidden goal is in some ways comforting; but I have trouble seeing any proof of this. 

On some level I would like to think that the Trump/GOP's failure to repeal & replace the ACA today was part of a larger strategy to move us towards single payer.   ie the ACA is the best we can do in our current system and it sucks so lets try single payer like everyone else since they are all having better luck than we are...

Any takers on that one?

"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity."

MrMoneySaver

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1369 on: March 24, 2017, 07:35:13 PM »
On some level I would like to think that the Trump/GOP's failure to repeal & replace the ACA today was part of a larger strategy to move us towards single payer.   ie the ACA is the best we can do in our current system and it sucks so lets try single payer like everyone else since they are all having better luck than we are...

Any takers on that one?
I do think Trump fully intended for the GOP bill to fail. I think he'd rather just let Obamacare continue and not have to deal with healthcare for the rest of his first term. For that reason, I don't think he'll sabotage Obamacare as some people fear.

I think Trump would be fine with single-payer care, but I don't think he'll push for that -- too much political energy to expend for something that probably isn't going to happen at this point.

sol

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1370 on: March 24, 2017, 08:53:54 PM »
I think Trump would be fine with single-payer care, but I don't think he'll push for that -- too much political energy to expend for something that probably isn't going to happen at this point.

I agree that he won't push for it, but just think of the flocks of Democrats that would suddenly support him!

Eventually, someday, a US politician is going to push through universal healthcare and be hailed as a national hero for time immemorial.  That kind of fame and adulation has GOT to be attractive to a man like Trump.  And he could say "well, we tried it the Conservative way first and you guys fucked it up, so let's try it the other way and see what happens" and if he brought even a fraction of his GOP support with him, I think the dems would easily put him over the top.  He certainly wouldn't get every democrat, but I think he'd get more than enough.

Plus, you know, fulfill his campaign promises of better cheaper care for everyone that got so many people riled up in the first place.  If you're going to talk a big game like that, I think it only makes sense to at least try for it.

Bakari

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1371 on: March 24, 2017, 11:22:06 PM »
I always assumed that those people get to see the latest and greatest information before the rest of us do. The corporate crystal ball as it were.

Maybe they are just led this way and that by lobbyists?

The latter is more of the feeling I got, when you look at some of the discussions that are had or the people on technology committee's for the government that seem to lack the basic understanding of current technology and also the changes that are right on the doorstep.


"I just the other day got… an Internet was sent by my staff at 10 o'clock in the morning on Friday. I got it yesterday [Tuesday]. Why? Because it got tangled up with all these things going on the Internet commercially.… They want to deliver vast amounts of information over the Internet. And again, the Internet is not something that you just dump something on. It's not a big truck. It's a series of tubes. And if you don't understand, those tubes can be filled and if they are filled, when you put your message in, it gets in line and it's going to be delayed by anyone that puts into that tube enormous amounts of material, enormous amounts of material"

United States Senator Ted Stevens

On some level I would like to think that the Trump/GOP's failure to repeal & replace the ACA today was part of a larger strategy to move us towards single payer.   ie the ACA is the best we can do in our current system and it sucks so lets try single payer like everyone else since they are all having better luck than we are...

Any takers on that one?
I do think Trump fully intended...

Really?  Am I alone in thinking that he doesn't have any long term plans or goals, and is just living in the moment and seeing what sticks?  Seems to me to describe his entire career, from real estate to reality TV, the leader of the Birther Movement to the guy in line behind Obama in the White House.  No way anyone could have predicted that going from barely solvent construction company propped up by family money to reality TV star would be the best way to end up in the white house.  This couldn't have been a grand plan anymore than Dog the Bounty Hunter or Snookie had secret political aspirations.  This entire thing was a whim.  Maybe a bar bet, maybe a joke, maybe just something to do.  Definitely never expected - possibly didn't even intend - to win.

So, now that he's there, why would he suddenly become an expert long-term political strategist? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSkWrpH3H3Q
« Last Edit: March 24, 2017, 11:32:22 PM by Bakari »

MrMoneySaver

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1372 on: March 25, 2017, 08:53:33 AM »
Quote
So, now that he's there, why would he suddenly become an expert long-term political strategist?
I don't like Trump, but he's not as dumb as many portray him. He's smart enough to know that taking healthcare away from millions could cost him re-election. And also smart enough to realize he had to at least look like he tried to "repeal Obamacare" to please certain elements of his base, and to maintain decent relations with the Republican leadership.

Failure of the AHCA keeps him in the clear on all of that. I think his plan worked perfectly, and it is classic Trump.

twd000

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1373 on: March 25, 2017, 10:09:24 AM »
Quote
So, now that he's there, why would he suddenly become an expert long-term political strategist?
I don't like Trump, but he's not as dumb as many portray him. He's smart enough to know that taking healthcare away from millions could cost him re-election. And also smart enough to realize he had to at least look like he tried to "repeal Obamacare" to please certain elements of his base, and to maintain decent relations with the Republican leadership.

Failure of the AHCA keeps him in the clear on all of that. I think his plan worked perfectly, and it is classic Trump.
Trump has "failed upwards" more than anyone else I can think of. I don't think he's stupid, so much as instinctual about what move to make next. You can hear his confused thinking in every speech transcript. He has zero attention span. When he begins a sentence he has no plan for where it will end. Assuming he is playing three dimensional chess thinking a dozen moves ahead is giving him way too much credit. I will say he is an absolutely brilliant and gifted salesman, reading the crowd and telling them what they want to hear.

twd000

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1374 on: March 25, 2017, 10:08:52 AM »
Quote
So, now that he's there, why would he suddenly become an expert long-term political strategist?
I don't like Trump, but he's not as dumb as many portray him. He's smart enough to know that taking healthcare away from millions could cost him re-election. And also smart enough to realize he had to at least look like he tried to "repeal Obamacare" to please certain elements of his base, and to maintain decent relations with the Republican leadership.

Failure of the AHCA keeps him in the clear on all of that. I think his plan worked perfectly, and it is classic Trump.
Trump has "failed upwards" more than anyone else I can think of. I don't think he's stupid, so much as instinctual about what move to make next. You can hear his confused thinking in every speech transcript. He has zero attention span. When he begins a sentence he has no plan for where it will end. Assuming he is playing three dimensional chess thinking a dozen moves ahead is giving him way too much credit. I will say he is an absolutely brilliant and gifted salesman, reading the crowd and telling them what they want to hear.

MrMoneySaver

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1375 on: March 26, 2017, 10:11:39 AM »
Quote
Assuming he is playing three dimensional chess thinking a dozen moves ahead is giving him way too much credit. I will say he is an absolutely brilliant and gifted salesman, reading the crowd and telling them what they want to hear.
I don't think he's playing 3-D chess. The moves he made with healthcare only required very basic calculus and probably depended a lot on "instinct" as you say. But I would continue to argue that he did indeed intend for this bill to fail all along. Trump is not dumb enough to think passing that piece of garbage would be a good thing for his presidency or re-election.

aspiringnomad

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1376 on: March 26, 2017, 10:47:24 PM »
Quote
Assuming he is playing three dimensional chess thinking a dozen moves ahead is giving him way too much credit. I will say he is an absolutely brilliant and gifted salesman, reading the crowd and telling them what they want to hear.
I don't think he's playing 3-D chess. The moves he made with healthcare only required very basic calculus and probably depended a lot on "instinct" as you say. But I would continue to argue that he did indeed intend for this bill to fail all along. Trump is not dumb enough to think passing that piece of garbage would be a good thing for his presidency or re-election.

Disagree. He may have been internally nervous about the political consequences having had a front-row seat as birther-in-chief during the backlash to Obamacare. But that's beside the point because his outward actions, public and private (if the many accounts from the Hill are to be believed), certainly showed that he was fully on-board with the AHCA. If he actually intended for the bill to fail then he must also believe that his words and tweets wield very little influence in his own party.

matchewed

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1377 on: March 27, 2017, 06:01:20 AM »
Ew someone put too much political debate in my sociotechnological thread.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1378 on: March 27, 2017, 07:48:33 AM »

tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1379 on: April 23, 2017, 07:42:27 PM »
You read these articles and the CEO's are against raising the minimum wage(which I agree is not the solution and will accelerate the unemployment of those without marketable skills), yet they have no other solution for those that can not support themselves. They also don't talk about what they clearly see in the future as technology eliminates the need for humans to be employed.  I would love for someone to follow up and ask them about UBI, about increasing taxes on corporations as corporations need less and less workers, and about income inequality as technology eliminates the need for 60%+ of the jobs out there, etc.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/23/andy-puzder-on-automation-if-robots-take-your-job-the-minimum-wage-is-zero.html

With that being said, "if your job is replaced by a machine or by some form of automation, the minimum wage is zero. You don't have a job."

tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1380 on: April 24, 2017, 08:33:39 AM »
http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/24/technology/alibaba-jack-ma-30-years-pain-robot-ceo/

"In 30 years, a robot will likely be on the cover of Time Magazine as the best CEO," Ma said in a speech over the weekend at an entrepreneurship conference in central China. And he warned of dark times ahead for people who are unprepared for the upheaval technology is set to bring.

"In the next three decades, the world will experience far more pain than happiness," the billionaire said, adding that education systems must raise children to be more creative and curious or they will be ill-prepared for the future.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1381 on: April 24, 2017, 08:35:33 AM »
Also, here's an interactive script where you can type in an occupation and get a summary of how much of your job can be automated (summarized from a McKinsey study) - http://time.com/4742543/robots-jobs-machines-work/

Threshkin

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1382 on: May 01, 2017, 04:37:45 PM »
Also, here's an interactive script where you can type in an occupation and get a summary of how much of your job can be automated (summarized from a McKinsey study) - http://time.com/4742543/robots-jobs-machines-work/

Interesting script that helps explain why I was so skeptical of automation taking over my (old) job.  Application software programming is hard to automate.  It is easy to outsource though!

I FIREd last year so I don't have as much to worry about anymore.

AlanStache

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1383 on: May 01, 2017, 05:28:58 PM »
Also, here's an interactive script where you can type in an occupation and get a summary of how much of your job can be automated (summarized from a McKinsey study) - http://time.com/4742543/robots-jobs-machines-work/
They've done some good research and white papers I occasionally read.  For those interested, google McKinsey Quarterly and subscribe.

If the link had "tomato sorter" as a profession they too would be out of jobs.  http://i.imgur.com/7nA3AkX.gifv

tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1384 on: May 01, 2017, 06:40:22 PM »
Also, here's an interactive script where you can type in an occupation and get a summary of how much of your job can be automated (summarized from a McKinsey study) - http://time.com/4742543/robots-jobs-machines-work/
They've done some good research and white papers I occasionally read.  For those interested, google McKinsey Quarterly and subscribe.


If the link had "tomato sorter" as a profession they too would be out of jobs.  http://i.imgur.com/7nA3AkX.gifv

That is almost hypnotic.

mozar

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1385 on: May 01, 2017, 08:58:17 PM »
Just saw amazon.com's patent for clothing manufacturing. Wow! They just have to figure out the sewing part.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/30/technology/detailing-amazons-custom-clothing-patent.html

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1386 on: May 01, 2017, 11:30:32 PM »
Also, here's an interactive script where you can type in an occupation and get a summary of how much of your job can be automated (summarized from a McKinsey study) - http://time.com/4742543/robots-jobs-machines-work/
They've done some good research and white papers I occasionally read.  For those interested, google McKinsey Quarterly and subscribe.

If the link had "tomato sorter" as a profession they too would be out of jobs.  http://i.imgur.com/7nA3AkX.gifv

There is a difference between 'mechanical tasks' which have been around since the advent of assembly lines (of course much refined with sensors and algorithms) and true next gen 'robots replacing humans'.  Your Tomato Sorter looks like something that has been around for a while, as opposed to the newer software/hardware doing tax returns, finance, law, and medical procedures.  That's probably why there isn't a 'tomato sorter' option (full disclosure, I've worked at a Pringles facility - lots of 'dumb automation' that long ago replaced slow, manual labor, but very cool).

maizeman

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1387 on: May 02, 2017, 08:35:01 AM »
Well the cool part about that tomato sorter -- and I don't know how smart and dumb their actual solution is -- isn't flicking tomatoes out of the way, it's the computer vision that is presumably tracking those tomatoes, scoring them based on things like shape and color, and deciding which ones are likely to be passed over by consumers at the grocery store and which ones are not. Now that could be as simple as "anything less than this red gets rejected" but once you have the physical sorting robot, it is much easier to integrating more and more advanced computer vision and decision algorithms.

Similar advances are happening in things like fruit picking, which is one of the places where slow, (relatively) expensive, physical labor by humans still dominates. The algorithms for looking at a photo of a strawberry plant, distinguishing leaves from fruits, figuring out which fruits are already completely ripe, and building up an accurate enough 3D model of the environment so a robot arm and reach out and grasp a ripe fruit without crushing it has been a much more challenging job than building the robot arm that can pick a strawberry. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIWdE2iLyJY

These are the same types of computer vision algorithm advances that can now diagnose melanomas more accurately than a dermatologist, with both fewer false positives and false negatives (https://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v542/n7639/fig_tab/nature21056_F3.html). And speaking of computer vision and medicine, I'm very, VERY happy I'm not a radiologist.

sol

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1388 on: May 02, 2017, 08:45:40 AM »
Well the cool part about that tomato sorter.. it's the computer vision that is presumably tracking those tomatoes

It's an interesting point, from a broader perspective, that it was pretty easily to automate the vast majority of human labor with steam power for things like construction and transportation over a hundred years ago, but we then had a century of relatively stagnant growth in mechanization until the advent of AI.  Now we're not replacing human muscles, we're replacing human brains.  Instead of machines taking over jobs that require a strong back, they're finally taking over jobs that require good judgement and quick thinking.

So once we have machines doing all of the physical work, and all of the mental work, what's left?  How long until machines take over creative jobs, or leadership jobs, or literary criticism jobs?

tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1389 on: May 02, 2017, 09:31:43 AM »
Well the cool part about that tomato sorter -- and I don't know how smart and dumb their actual solution is -- isn't flicking tomatoes out of the way, it's the computer vision that is presumably tracking those tomatoes, scoring them based on things like shape and color, and deciding which ones are likely to be passed over by consumers at the grocery store and which ones are not.

These sorting machine are pretty cool.  I saw an apple sorting machine a few years back.  It was pretty cool in that they could use different spectrums to sort and grade the apples.  They could tell if the apple's sugar content was high, low or just right and sort the apples into the appropriate bins.  They also make a very uniform apple regarding size and color.  So a certain bin would be very uniform.  So when they are sold to the stores the apples are pretty much all the same. So people are not sorting through the bins looking for the "good" ones.

The yields go up as people would tend to throw away an acceptable apple, so waste goes down.  Also the equipment is better at putting them into various piles that could be used for other uses like juice, cider, apple sauce, etc.

The storage is getting pretty crazy too, with apples lasting up to 18 months.  During harvest season, most people are eating a "fresh" apple that is a year old.   

AlanStache

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1390 on: May 02, 2017, 09:58:20 AM »
... Also the equipment is better at putting them into various piles that could be used for other uses like juice, cider, apple sauce, etc.

So it can sort in to N different bins but it would also know the contents of each bin so if you were to make juice out of bin #4 you would already know the sweetness of that bin and could workout beforehand how much sugar to add to get your desired sweetness. 

"During harvest season, most people are eating a "fresh" apple that is a year old. " 
wow, I think I will plant an apple tree this weekend; that is just not right.  Why do they store them that long - just to even out the supply through the year?

Few years back I knew a radiologist, wish we were still in contact to get his take on where his field was going.  Know he mentioned offshoring but dont think he directly mentioned AI.

theadvicist

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1391 on: May 04, 2017, 02:53:28 AM »
"During harvest season, most people are eating a "fresh" apple that is a year old. " 
wow, I think I will plant an apple tree this weekend; that is just not right.  Why do they store them that long - just to even out the supply through the year?


Well, that's how it's always been. Apples are ready once a year. I mean, I have a tree that's ready in August, and one that's ready in September to lengthen the season, but each tree's fruit are ready once per year.

In the olden days, and in my house, you harvest the tree, and store the apples in a dark cool place not touching each other - because one rotten apple will ruin them all. Newspaper is often used for this.

My apples easily last into the new year. I can't get them to go a full year, and am now on store-bought again, but with commerical refrigeration, or the time to check them each week so as to remove any rotten ones, I'm sure I could get them to last a year.

There's nothing 'wrong' about it. It's how agriculture is when you are not importing things from the other hemisphere, which is the other way to get 'fresh' apples in the summer before the harvest.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1392 on: May 04, 2017, 11:25:04 AM »
A step more in line with some earlier conversations. It's a long read, but good.

http://waitbutwhy.com/2017/04/neuralink.html

tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1393 on: May 04, 2017, 01:26:36 PM »
A step more in line with some earlier conversations. It's a long read, but good.

http://waitbutwhy.com/2017/04/neuralink.html

Thanks I will check it out.

tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1394 on: May 07, 2017, 09:03:44 PM »
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/warren-buffett-ai-good-society-enormously-disruptive-203957098.html

Buffet's take and Munger's take on AI and the impact on society.  Munger does not believe it will be as disruptive, where Buffett indicated that he thought it would come on much quicker and disruptive than Munger.


maizeman

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1395 on: May 08, 2017, 01:25:13 PM »
Interesting article in FT on the impact of AI on law firms. Essentially a lot of the work done by junior partners is searching through documents, and that type of work can be done faster and more accurately by machine learning based systems (I'd heard this before, but this article has more detail than I'd read previously). Right now senior lawyer's work isn't as threatened, but will have to do some structuring to figure out where the new senior lawyers come from if the entry level jobs in the field go away.

Quote
In the past, BLP would have pulled together a small team of junior lawyers and paralegals at short notice, then put them in a room to extract that data manually from hundreds of pages a process that could take weeks. The Ravn system reviews and extracts the same information in minutes.

https://www.ft.com/content/f809870c-26a1-11e7-8691-d5f7e0cd0a16

(If the link hits a paywall, just type "Artificial intelligence closes in on the work of junior lawyers" into google and hit the first link.)

dougules

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1396 on: May 08, 2017, 02:24:00 PM »
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/warren-buffett-ai-good-society-enormously-disruptive-203957098.html

Buffet's take and Munger's take on AI and the impact on society.  Munger does not believe it will be as disruptive, where Buffett indicated that he thought it would come on much quicker and disruptive than Munger.

Automation has been going for 200 years now, and it already has been disruptive.  Just take a trip to Youngstown or small town Kansas.  I think AI will just increase the speed of automation, which will just increase the speed of disruptions that already have been happening. 

brooklynguy

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1397 on: May 08, 2017, 03:11:43 PM »
Interesting article in FT on the impact of AI on law firms. Essentially a lot of the work done by junior partners is searching through documents, and that type of work can be done faster and more accurately by machine learning based systems (I'd heard this before, but this article has more detail than I'd read previously). Right now senior lawyer's work isn't as threatened, but will have to do some structuring to figure out where the new senior lawyers come from if the entry level jobs in the field go away.

Quote
In the past, BLP would have pulled together a small team of junior lawyers and paralegals at short notice, then put them in a room to extract that data manually from hundreds of pages a process that could take weeks. The Ravn system reviews and extracts the same information in minutes.

https://www.ft.com/content/f809870c-26a1-11e7-8691-d5f7e0cd0a16

(If the link hits a paywall, just type "Artificial intelligence closes in on the work of junior lawyers" into google and hit the first link.)

The article sort of dances around the crux of the issue, which, for the legal industry (or at least its big-law-firm-money-center, the article's focus), is that an abundance of low-level work performed by human lawyers is a key ingredient for profits under the current business model.  As the article points out, the "traditional and profitable [law firm business] model involves many low-paid legal staff doing most of the routine work, while a handful of equity partners earn about 1m a year" (incidentally, I would note that junior lawyers' pay at big firms could only be described as "low" when considered in relation to the compensation of their respective senior lawyers).  In the world of big law firms, the ratio of a firm's non-equity-partner lawyers to its equity partners is referred to as "leverage," and most big law firms are deliberately highly leveraged in order to drive profits.  Cutting out low-level work means cutting out a significant, if not the primary, source of revenue.  Law firms generally charge by the hour, so the more inefficiently the work is performed, the higher the profits to the partners.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1398 on: May 09, 2017, 11:40:59 AM »
The same is true for any work that charges by the hour - but you don't see construction laborers using hand saws and those eggbeater type of hand drills.
The lawyers will do like everyone else, some combination of charging more for the same work and reducing profit (due to competition, when the other firm starts using the software)

Axecleaver

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1399 on: May 15, 2017, 02:59:03 PM »
Quote
"During harvest season, most people are eating a "fresh" apple that is a year old. " 
The majority of the apples in the US are produced in a handful of counties in Washington and New York. Mrs Axe's cousin married one of the apple barons in our county, so I have learned a few things about the business over holiday meals.

Apple production today already uses some heavy machinery to do a lot of the work - the planting in particular is very dense and fast, putting trees about 2' apart in dense rows, and fertilizing them with very specific formulations that encourage light production in year two and full production in year three. He has teams of three people planting trees, each team planting one tree and a support every 6 seconds. A second step to bind them to support columns follows this several weeks later, and takes less than a minute per tree.

Harvesting is still done by human hands. Apple harvests spread from August to October here, with different varieties finishing in overlapping 1-2 week windows. Many of the laborers have been working on the farms for generations - one guy has been with a farm down the road for 70 years, coming here for harvest and flying home to the Dominican Republic to live off what he makes the rest of the year. The farm pays his airfare and has labor camps and buses to take the workers grocery shopping, medical care, dentists, etc.

The apples are loaded into large plastic crates roughly four feet per side. These are placed in rapid chilling units which bring the apples to exactly 32.1 degrees, then moved into longer term cold storage. The sellers store the apples and get contracts to provide apples on a regular basis to customers for the entire year. These apples will make their way all over the US, with up to 60% of the harvest exported to Europe and Asia, where prices are higher.

The cold storage rotates out the old apples and will sell at discounts when they reach the end of their storage lifetimes. Some apples can be stored as many as two years. Other varieties will only keep for a couple of months. If you're eating a generic red delicious, that may be a year old. But if you're enjoying the shorter lived Cortlands, Macouns, and Macintosh near harvest time, it's pretty fresh.
If you live in an urban area and shop at big grocery stores, you're getting year-old apples until the stores run down