Author Topic: Robots and their impact on the future  (Read 147469 times)

arebelspy

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1300 on: February 24, 2017, 02:57:27 PM »
Wouldn't UBI be soaked up by inflation?

No.

Quote
Wouldn't most people want more than the barest of essentials income wise?

Yes. That's why most would still work.  Only they'd have the ability to take risks, like starting businesses, or creating art, yet still be guaranteed not to literally starve.
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tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1301 on: February 27, 2017, 07:26:08 AM »
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/27/buffett-self-driving-cars-will-hurt-the-insurance-industry.html

Warren Buffett is worried how self driving cars will affect his investments in insurance companies. He says his bet would be that there would be less than 10% of cars being self driving in 10 years. He also says that he could easily be wrong as some serious brain power is being invested in it.

prognastat

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1302 on: February 27, 2017, 08:58:40 AM »
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/27/buffett-self-driving-cars-will-hurt-the-insurance-industry.html

Warren Buffett is worried how self driving cars will affect his investments in insurance companies. He says his bet would be that there would be less than 10% of cars being self driving in 10 years. He also says that he could easily be wrong as some serious brain power is being invested in it.

I would say I agree with personal transport, due to the up front cost unless this changes faster than expected it will likely be too expensive to own a self driving car for many people for a while and holding on to their non self driving car will be cheaper.

However a very large portion of driving is done not using personal transport, but by businesses. This is where the change will have rapid and massive consequences soon in my opinion. Things like transposing goods using self driving trucks/vehicles will easily be afforded by companies who will see the potential for saving money over a relatively short period and will switch as soon as the technology has matured to this point. Imagine a truck driver that never tires, always obeys all the rules and is able to optimize the driving pattern for the best efficiency. It could constantly be up to date on traffic conditions and the fastest route and change it's route to a more optimal one the moment the conditions change. It would also be less accident prone reducing costs of insuring, repairing and the downtime associated with these. This all on top of the cost of not having to pay a driver anymore.

Another place this will likely shift fast is taxi/uber etc. Uber has already invested in self driving technology and the company to seize on this at the right time will be able to undercut those still employing humans and take a massive share of the current people using these services and grow the market on the bottom by lowering cost and opening the market up to those that have been unable/unwilling to afford it up to this point.

Due to this I think that it is true that personal vehicles will take a while to significantly switch to self driving, but corporate owned vehicles will be switching much faster and have large and far reaching consequences.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1303 on: February 27, 2017, 09:54:44 AM »
Truck driver is now the single largest occupation in many US states (although in someways this is arbitrary because of how different occupations are split or grouped). The lowest of low hanging fruit is long haul trucking along interstates. No red lights, basically no turns.

In one of the articles I read about Otto, it sounded like their first step was going to be automating just the long haul portion of the drive. So you pack a truck in Boston, a human drives it out to a rest-stop like depot on the nearest interstate, and the truck drives itself from Boston to another right-on-the-interstate depot in Santa Fe where another human driver gets onboard and drives it into the city to the warehouse or factory where it will be unloaded. 95+% of the billable human hours gone with relatively "dumb" self driving capabilities.
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prognastat

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1304 on: February 27, 2017, 10:11:24 AM »
Truck driver is now the single largest occupation in many US states (although in someways this is arbitrary because of how different occupations are split or grouped). The lowest of low hanging fruit is long haul trucking along interstates. No red lights, basically no turns.

In one of the articles I read about Otto, it sounded like their first step was going to be automating just the long haul portion of the drive. So you pack a truck in Boston, a human drives it out to a rest-stop like depot on the nearest interstate, and the truck drives itself from Boston to another right-on-the-interstate depot in Santa Fe where another human driver gets onboard and drives it into the city to the warehouse or factory where it will be unloaded. 95+% of the billable human hours gone with relatively "dumb" self driving capabilities.

Exactly and the automatization of vehicles used by businesses is likely to have much larger impact on economics and employment than that of personal vehicles which will likely take longer to reach maturity and use by a majority of the public.
« Last Edit: February 27, 2017, 10:26:50 AM by prognastat »

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1305 on: February 27, 2017, 02:25:43 PM »
Truck driver is now the single largest occupation in many US states (although in someways this is arbitrary because of how different occupations are split or grouped). The lowest of low hanging fruit is long haul trucking along interstates. No red lights, basically no turns.

In one of the articles I read about Otto, it sounded like their first step was going to be automating just the long haul portion of the drive. So you pack a truck in Boston, a human drives it out to a rest-stop like depot on the nearest interstate, and the truck drives itself from Boston to another right-on-the-interstate depot in Santa Fe where another human driver gets onboard and drives it into the city to the warehouse or factory where it will be unloaded. 95+% of the billable human hours gone with relatively "dumb" self driving capabilities.

Truck convoys:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-22/convoys-of-automated-trucks-set-to-point-way-to-driverless-cars

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1306 on: March 01, 2017, 06:53:08 AM »
I took a minor vacation last weekend to see some family.  Sunday I walked all around Capital City and ended up passing a store that sold 3D printers; there was a homeless man sleeping in the door jam. 
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tomsang

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1307 on: March 01, 2017, 08:31:10 AM »
I took a minor vacation last weekend to see some family.  Sunday I walked all around Capital City and ended up passing a store that sold 3D printers; there was a homeless man sleeping in the door jam.

Sounds like you saw the future.

dougules

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1308 on: March 01, 2017, 10:33:13 AM »
I took a minor vacation last weekend to see some family.  Sunday I walked all around Capital City and ended up passing a store that sold 3D printers; there was a homeless man sleeping in the door jam.

Sounds like you saw the future.

No, in the future we'll have robots to remove homeless guys from door jams. 

sol

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1309 on: March 01, 2017, 10:43:57 AM »
No, in the future we'll have robots to remove homeless guys from door jams.

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Metric Mouse

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1310 on: March 04, 2017, 07:40:15 PM »
No, in the future we'll have robots to remove homeless guys from door jams.

Robot voice:
<get a job you bum>
Maybe a way to use the homelss to power thr robots that took their jobs?
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arebelspy

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1311 on: March 04, 2017, 09:09:04 PM »
Can we make them run on giant hamster wheels?
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Kriegsspiel

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1312 on: March 05, 2017, 05:48:37 PM »
Harvest their poop for biomass reactors?

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1313 on: March 06, 2017, 12:48:39 AM »
Ummm, how about use some of the robotax money to get them housing, mental health care, treatment for any addiction issues and retrained to help them become healthy, happy, fulfilled and contributing members of society? And use some more of the taxes to improve the underlying issues that help to cause such problems in the first place?

Just an idea.

Ayn Rand probably wouldn't approve tho'...
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1314 on: March 06, 2017, 01:52:57 AM »
Ummm, how about use some of the robotax money to get them housing, mental health care, treatment for any addiction issues and retrained to help them become healthy, happy, fulfilled and contributing members of society? And use some more of the taxes to improve the underlying issues that help to cause such problems in the first place?

Just an idea.

Ayn Rand probably wouldn't approve tho'...
What is the underlying problem? That really friggin smart people are building robots that are better at virtually eveything a person can do than people are? Should we tax those friggin smart people for every advancement they make based on the number of jobs it endangers?

Maybe not a bad idea...
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1315 on: March 06, 2017, 03:04:49 AM »
Ummm, how about use some of the robotax money to get them housing, mental health care, treatment for any addiction issues and retrained to help them become healthy, happy, fulfilled and contributing members of society? And use some more of the taxes to improve the underlying issues that help to cause such problems in the first place?

Just an idea.

Ayn Rand probably wouldn't approve tho'...
What is the underlying problem? That really friggin smart people are building robots that are better at virtually eveything a person can do than people are? Should we tax those friggin smart people for every advancement they make based on the number of jobs it endangers?

Maybe not a bad idea...

The problem is I don't think we should have a society where the 0.1% robot owners get all the wealth and the 99.9% are left to destitution and doing the few jobs the robots can't do. We tried that system during the Victorian industrial revolution and we got Dickensian living conditions.

On the upside, household help was cheap, as were bricklayers &  mill workers. If you were a capitalist landowning industrial barron (or your Dad or Granddad was) you did pretty well.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1316 on: March 06, 2017, 03:19:50 AM »
Well that would depend upon if one belives that robots will allow the cost of production to reach zero, as many have suggested. In that case, everyone will be fantastically rich.

Absolutely I agree that no small group should have all the wealth and leave the majority in destitution., even though the planet is set up much this way at the time of this writing.
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arebelspy

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1317 on: March 06, 2017, 03:36:19 AM »
Well that would depend upon if one belives that robots will allow the cost of production to reach zero, as many have suggested. In that case, everyone will be fantastically rich.

Everyone left, yes, but maybe at a much smaller population level.

Interesting Slashdot comments I read recently relate to this:

Person 1:
Quote
At some point though, the rich won't need money from the masses. They will be able to just directly order their robo-factories to directly build their yachts and mega-mansions, using robo-manufactured components built from robo-harvested raw materials. If they don't personally own robo-companies that have what they need, they can just trade with other 1%ers who do own the right robo-resources.

They probably will need a few lesser humans (at least in the beginning) to fill in the gaps that robots can't (yet) do. But that will just be an issue of enticing the best of the best non-1%ers with the opportunity to live in the servants' wing of their robo-built mansion and eat the leftovers of their robo-harvested food.

Right now they only need money from the masses so they can use that money to employee the masses. That dependancy goes away of you already own vast armies of robots that serve you for free.

Person 2:
Quote
Maybe this is the endgame of human evolution. Instead of having 7 billion people, of whom 1% are rich (that's 70 million): perhaps you have a human population of 70 million rich people, and about 7 billion robots? Not so scary if you are one of the 1%. I just don't want to be around during the transition period.

https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/17/03/02/150235/robots-wont-just-take-our-jobs----theyll-make-the-rich-even-richer
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1318 on: March 06, 2017, 04:04:29 AM »
Well that would depend upon if one belives that robots will allow the cost of production to reach zero, as many have suggested. In that case, everyone will be fantastically rich.

Everyone left, yes, but maybe at a much smaller population level.

Interesting Slashdot comments I read recently relate to this:

Person 1:
Quote
At some point though, the rich won't need money from the masses. They will be able to just directly order their robo-factories to directly build their yachts and mega-mansions, using robo-manufactured components built from robo-harvested raw materials. If they don't personally own robo-companies that have what they need, they can just trade with other 1%ers who do own the right robo-resources.

They probably will need a few lesser humans (at least in the beginning) to fill in the gaps that robots can't (yet) do. But that will just be an issue of enticing the best of the best non-1%ers with the opportunity to live in the servants' wing of their robo-built mansion and eat the leftovers of their robo-harvested food.

Right now they only need money from the masses so they can use that money to employee the masses. That dependancy goes away of you already own vast armies of robots that serve you for free.

Person 2:
Quote
Maybe this is the endgame of human evolution. Instead of having 7 billion people, of whom 1% are rich (that's 70 million): perhaps you have a human population of 70 million rich people, and about 7 billion robots? Not so scary if you are one of the 1%. I just don't want to be around during the transition period.

https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/17/03/02/150235/robots-wont-just-take-our-jobs----theyll-make-the-rich-even-richer

Interesting thoughts that play onto my long-term wealth plan. It leaves one many options to be in the upper percentiles (and to keep one's children there, if one wishes). Statistically, based on world-wide wealth, my family is set for at least two generations. Likely many more by the time I leave the planet.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1319 on: March 06, 2017, 05:02:01 AM »
We all remember our first smart phone.  Mine was the IPhone 4.   Before that I only had dumb flip phones.  I never switched back to the flip phone.  I had bought five desktop computers for home use and about six laptops before buying a tablet.  I'll never buy a computer again either.  Smart phones and tablets will do everything I need a computer to do.  It will be that way with the automated car.  Once you've been using one you'll never want the hassle of driving again.  Our Subaru is pretty smart, not self driving but it speeds up and slows down in traffic.  Warns of lane violation, tells you when a car is passing you and a few other features.   I've pretty much decided I'll never buy another nonautonomus car. 
Truck driving needs to be automated as soon as possible.   Just the traffic relief will be incredible.   The roads are nearly empty at night.  That is when to haul freight.  Don't have trucks on the road at all during the morning and afternoon rush hours.  In fact that is where we should tax.  Tax freight based upon the hour and location.  Make the freight companies pay a higher tax for higher traffic times.  We have the technology to do that now. 
Passive income.  With the oncoming AI revolution, wouldn't smart people be saving up passive income?  I know my job can be mostly automated.  I'll retire before that happens but if you're twenty five and expected to work another thirty to forty years.  You'd better plan to be replaced by a machine.   
« Last Edit: March 06, 2017, 08:24:16 AM by Bateaux »
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theadvicist

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1320 on: March 06, 2017, 05:41:21 AM »

Truck driving needs to be automated as soon as possible.   Just the traffic relief will be incredible.   The roads are nearly empty at night.  That is when to haul freight.  Don't have trucks on the road at all during the morning and afternoon rush hours.  In fact that is where we should tax.  Tax freight based upon the hour and location.  Make the freight companies pay a higher tax for higher traffic times.  We have the technology to do that now. 


The reason freight is not hauled at night is not because people are driving the vehicles. Many truck drivers would far prefer to drive on quiet roads at night.

It's because there is no-one in the warehouse to despatch goods, or at the destination to receive goods. Also, many areas have restrictions on when deliveries can be made to reduce noise impact in residential areas etc. Our nearest supermarket is only allowed to receive deliveries between 8am and 6pm, for example - it was a condition of their receiving planning permission to build the store.

Now, if goods out and goods in were totally automated, then robots could load and unload through the night. But other restrictions might still be in place. It's not just about humans being in the cab.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1321 on: March 06, 2017, 05:47:13 AM »

Truck driving needs to be automated as soon as possible.   Just the traffic relief will be incredible.   The roads are nearly empty at night.  That is when to haul freight.  Don't have trucks on the road at all during the morning and afternoon rush hours.  In fact that is where we should tax.  Tax freight based upon the hour and location.  Make the freight companies pay a higher tax for higher traffic times.  We have the technology to do that now. 


The reason freight is not hauled at night is not because people are driving the vehicles. Many truck drivers would far prefer to drive on quiet roads at night.

It's because there is no-one in the warehouse to despatch goods, or at the destination to receive goods. Also, many areas have restrictions on when deliveries can be made to reduce noise impact in residential areas etc. Our nearest supermarket is only allowed to receive deliveries between 8am and 6pm, for example - it was a condition of their receiving planning permission to build the store.

Now, if goods out and goods in were totally automated, then robots could load and unload through the night. But other restrictions might still be in place. It's not just about humans being in the cab.

This.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1322 on: March 06, 2017, 10:25:18 AM »
I took the industry study on Robotics and Autonomous Systems that I lead to Pittsburgh for two day visit.  New this year was a sit down and tour with Uber's Advanced Technology Group who are currently using autonomous Volvo XC-90s to provide rides in portions of Pittsburgh (they still have an engineer in the driver's seat to monitor).

They told us that their main goal isn't to replace the individual Uber drivers, but more importantly to influence you that when it is time for a new car, you will decide not to buy a car because rideshare can provide you with all the transportation you need.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1323 on: March 06, 2017, 07:12:22 PM »
I took the industry study on Robotics and Autonomous Systems that I lead to Pittsburgh for two day visit.  New this year was a sit down and tour with Uber's Advanced Technology Group who are currently using autonomous Volvo XC-90s to provide rides in portions of Pittsburgh (they still have an engineer in the driver's seat to monitor).

They told us that their main goal isn't to replace the individual Uber drivers, but more importantly to influence you that when it is time for a new car, you will decide not to buy a car because rideshare can provide you with all the transportation you need.
Why use an automated vehicle then? Seems like they're lying, full stop.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1324 on: March 07, 2017, 06:56:59 AM »
I took the industry study on Robotics and Autonomous Systems that I lead to Pittsburgh for two day visit.  New this year was a sit down and tour with Uber's Advanced Technology Group who are currently using autonomous Volvo XC-90s to provide rides in portions of Pittsburgh (they still have an engineer in the driver's seat to monitor).

They told us that their main goal isn't to replace the individual Uber drivers, but more importantly to influence you that when it is time for a new car, you will decide not to buy a car because rideshare can provide you with all the transportation you need.
Why use an automated vehicle then? Seems like they're lying, full stop.

The engineer is there to handle the car when the automation fails and (I assume) to create a bug report.  Not sure if they have the engineer in the cars for half the day then the other half they are working on the AI code or what.  I can see benefits to having a proper engineer in the car testing the AI vs a normal driver, but it would take some convincing that it is more cost effective.  I mean the engineer could just watch a recorded video back at the office flagged by the normal driver.  Its not like the engineer can edit the software on the fly in the car.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1325 on: March 07, 2017, 08:39:10 AM »
I said autonomous car, not engineer. I  can see why the engineer is there. But why would a company that claims it is not trying to replace drivers be engineering cars that don't need drivers at all?

And why would a company that wants people to not use their own cars be interested in convincing people to buy new cars?

Seems like occams razor suggests that they are fucking lying.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1326 on: March 07, 2017, 08:54:20 AM »
I said autonomous car, not engineer. I  can see why the engineer is there. But why would a company that claims it is not trying to replace drivers be engineering cars that don't need drivers at all?

And why would a company that wants people to not use their own cars be interested in convincing people to buy new cars?

Seems like occams razor suggests that they are fucking lying.

The assumption must be that driverless cars will be cheaper to operate.  Not having people drive the cars gets around the employee/contractor tax problems.  There would be no 'employees' to push back on price changes.  If needed, Uber capacity could be quickly shifted around to squash competition where ever if popped up.  Claiming to not want to replace drivers is likely marketing BS to keep there current drivers from jumping ship.

"They told us that their main goal isn't to replace the individual Uber drivers, but more importantly to influence you that when it is time for a new car, you will decide not to buy a car because rideshare can provide you with all the transportation you need."
"And why would a company that wants people to not use their own cars be interested in convincing people to buy new cars?" I think I am missing your point.  Uber is not trying to convince people to by new cars.  Unless that was mentioned in a fine article I did not read.
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prognastat

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1327 on: March 07, 2017, 09:21:14 AM »
I said autonomous car, not engineer. I  can see why the engineer is there. But why would a company that claims it is not trying to replace drivers be engineering cars that don't need drivers at all?

And why would a company that wants people to not use their own cars be interested in convincing people to buy new cars?

Seems like occams razor suggests that they are fucking lying.

The assumption must be that driverless cars will be cheaper to operate.  Not having people drive the cars gets around the employee/contractor tax problems.  There would be no 'employees' to push back on price changes.  If needed, Uber capacity could be quickly shifted around to squash competition where ever if popped up.  Claiming to not want to replace drivers is likely marketing BS to keep there current drivers from jumping ship.

"They told us that their main goal isn't to replace the individual Uber drivers, but more importantly to influence you that when it is time for a new car, you will decide not to buy a car because rideshare can provide you with all the transportation you need."
"And why would a company that wants people to not use their own cars be interested in convincing people to buy new cars?" I think I am missing your point.  Uber is not trying to convince people to by new cars.  Unless that was mentioned in a fine article I did not read.

Uber has 0 incentive to keep regular drivers once the self driving technology is mature enough to replace human drivers and not need someone monitoring it. I am sure this is why they are investing in the technology because they could reduce ride faires which would increase demand while at the same time still keeping a larger amount per ride since they don't need to pay the driver also increasing revenue. It would also be trivial to hire new "employees" since there is no longer a hiring, they simply buy another self driving car and if a market is reduced they can just allocate some of the self driving cars in that area to an area that is experiencing an increase in demand at minimal cost.

If I were a driver for uber I would put no faith in their comments about not replacing drivers as soon as it is viable.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2017, 09:59:44 AM by prognastat »

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1328 on: March 07, 2017, 09:37:43 AM »
Exactly; Uber is lying their ass off, for all the reasons mentioned above.
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sol

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1329 on: March 07, 2017, 09:48:05 AM »
Exactly; Uber is lying their ass off, for all the reasons mentioned above.

Wait, you mean a for profit corporation lied to the public as part of a plan to maximize profit?

I thought the free market was supposed to make us all perfectly virtuous?

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1330 on: March 07, 2017, 11:05:30 AM »
Exactly; Uber is lying their ass off, for all the reasons mentioned above.

Wait, you mean a for profit corporation lied to the public as part of a plan to maximize profit?

I thought the free market was supposed to make us all perfectly virtuous?
Hopefully the government will take them over and keep all of those cushy driver jobs. It'll be perfect!
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1332 on: March 09, 2017, 09:33:59 AM »
Exactly; Uber is lying their ass off, for all the reasons mentioned above.

Wait, you mean a for profit corporation lied to the public as part of a plan to maximize profit?

I thought the free market was supposed to make us all perfectly virtuous?
Hopefully the government will take them over and keep all of those cushy driver jobs. It'll be perfect!

I'm looking forward to the cylons taking over the government myself.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1333 on: March 09, 2017, 01:37:16 PM »
Exactly; Uber is lying their ass off, for all the reasons mentioned above.

Wait, you mean a for profit corporation lied to the public as part of a plan to maximize profit?

I thought the free market was supposed to make us all perfectly virtuous?
Hopefully the government will take them over and keep all of those cushy driver jobs. It'll be perfect!

I'm looking forward to the cylons taking over the government myself.
hmmm...

What's their view on universal health care? :)
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1334 on: March 09, 2017, 01:41:26 PM »
What's their view on universal health care? :)

EXTERMINATE !  EXTERMINATE !

Wait, wrong robots?

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1335 on: March 09, 2017, 01:42:53 PM »

Ummm, how about use some of the robotax money to get them housing, mental health care, treatment for any addiction issues and retrained to help them become healthy, happy, fulfilled and contributing members of society? And use some more of the taxes to improve the underlying issues that help to cause such problems in the first place?Just an idea. Ayn Rand probably wouldn't approve tho'...
What is the underlying problem? That really friggin smart people are building robots that are better at virtually eveything a person can do than people are? Should we tax those friggin smart people for every advancement they make based on the number of jobs it endangers? Maybe not a bad idea...

Your mixing up two unrelated issues.  Most of the homeless don't have jobs to begin with, so endangering jobs isn't directly relevant to the underlying problem.  Of course, in the long run it could certainly exacerbate the problem, if massive unemployment leads to more homelessness, but having enough job openings for all able-bodied adults wouldn't necessarily alleviate all drug addiction and mental and physical illness.  Taxes could certainly help pay for rehab centers and long-term medical care facilities.

Person 2:
Quote
Maybe this is the endgame of human evolution. Instead of having 7 billion people, of whom 1% are rich (that's 70 million): perhaps you have a human population of 70 million rich people, and about 7 billion robots? Not so scary if you are one of the 1%. I just don't want to be around during the transition period.
https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/17/03/02/150235/robots-wont-just-take-our-jobs----theyll-make-the-rich-even-richer

The transition wouldn't have to be tragically terrible, if we could spread it out a few generations and accomplish it via free sterilizations and birth control and a one-child policy (at least in terms of social expectations, if not law).  We could also, for example, tax each child, instead of providing tax breaks.


We all remember our first smart phone.
Google gave me a free motorola / android so I could be one of their officially recommended handymen for my area, since I didn't have a "smart phone" at the time and they developed an app version before the website.

Quote
Mine was the IPhone 4.   Before that I only had dumb flip phones.  I never switched back to the flip phone.
That phone is here on my desk right now.  Never got a service plan for it, I just use it at home on wi-fi.  For actual on the road phone calls, I use my $20 on ebay water proof shock resistant folds in half flip phone, that has a camera and even a (very slow and inconvenient) web browser built in.
Why?  Because it the web browser is there for when I absolutely need it, and the rest of the time it is slow and inconvenient.
I'm not just a luddite for its own sake - my TV has netflix and youtube built in, I run kodi, my car can send me an email or text if I forget to plug it in.  But it does not seem that a pocket computer actually makes any one's life better, (or at least, not better enough to compensate for the ways it makes it worse)

Quote
I had bought five desktop computers for home use and about six laptops before buying a tablet.  I'll never buy a computer again either.  Smart phones and tablets will do everything I need a computer to do.
We have a tablet too.  I rarely use it, because it doesn't do a lot of things my (much older!) computer can do, and those it can it doesn't do as well.  The computer is faster, has way more software options, and easier to type on keyboard, a 10x bigger screen, infinitely better speakers, a CD/DVD drive, card readers, ethernet port, 7 USB ports - no matter how good tablets and pocket computers get, they will never be able to do certain things as well, by nature of their size.

Quote
  The roads are nearly empty at night.  That is when to haul freight.  Don't have trucks on the road at all during the morning and afternoon rush hours.
Actually, a lot of freight IS moved at night.  Truck drivers get paid by the mile, not by the hour, and they have a limited number of hours they can drive each day.  So many, probably most, long haul truckers make a point to avoid cities in the day time, and drive at off-peak hours as much as possible.  What you see in the day are mostly short-haul runs, which have no choice but to deliver to businesses when those businesses are actually open.

Quote
Passive income.  With the oncoming AI revolution, wouldn't smart people be saving up passive income?
Um, isn't that already true, robots or no robot?  Isn't that the whole point of the entire MMM thing?
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1336 on: March 09, 2017, 07:31:11 PM »
I'm thinking Uber might want people to buy self driving cars and put them into Uber service.   That way they don't have to maintain the cars.  You maintain the car, you clean the car,  you fuel the car.  You get paid for its use.  It's your car when you want to use it and remove from service.   Imagine, you go on vacation, drive to another city, get a hotel and release your car while you enjoy a restful afternoon or restaurant meal.  The whole time your car is working for you while you relax.  I'm certain some full service stations will gladly refuel and maintain your car in a nationwide network.  You make the investment,  Uber books the car and pays you for use.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1337 on: March 10, 2017, 03:34:11 AM »
I'm thinking Uber might want people to buy self driving cars and put them into Uber service.   That way they don't have to maintain the cars.  You maintain the car, you clean the car,  you fuel the car.  You get paid for its use.  It's your car when you want to use it and remove from service.   Imagine, you go on vacation, drive to another city, get a hotel and release your car while you enjoy a restful afternoon or restaurant meal.  The whole time your car is working for you while you relax.  I'm certain some full service stations will gladly refuel and maintain your car in a nationwide network.  You make the investment,  Uber books the car and pays you for use.
Would be difficult to use evs for this; after your drive the car would need to charge the whole time you are eating or relaxing. Uber just wants to replace their drivers with a cheaper option as soon as practical, period.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2017, 04:47:58 AM by Metric Mouse »
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1338 on: March 10, 2017, 04:45:28 AM »
I'm thinking Uber might want people to buy self driving cars and put them into Uber service.   That way they don't have to maintain the cars.  You maintain the car, you clean the car,  you fuel the car.  You get paid for its use.  It's your car when you want to use it and remove from service.   Imagine, you go on vacation, drive to another city, get a hotel and release your car while you enjoy a restful afternoon or restaurant meal.  The whole time your car is working for you while you relax.  I'm certain some full service stations will gladly refuel and maintain your car in a nationwide network.  You make the investment,  Uber books the car and pays you for use.
Would be difficult to use evs for this; after your deive the car would need to charge the whole time you are eating or relaxing. Uber just wants to replace their drivers with a cheaper option as soon as practical, period.

This is actually a really interesting juxtaposition between new technologies (the Uber model and EVs):

Autonomous vehicles which can be called when needed is kind of predicated on the fact that most cars aren't used most of the time. They are taking that downtime and creating an efficiency saving by saying those cars don't need to be owned individually and parked up 90% of the time, they could be moving other people.

The move towards EVs requires long periods of standing cars though, for them to take on charge.

I guess it is all solved by the cars being charged overnight (when there is very little demand) and batteries being large and efficient enough to run a car all day.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1339 on: March 10, 2017, 04:53:19 AM »
I'm thinking Uber might want people to buy self driving cars and put them into Uber service.   That way they don't have to maintain the cars.  You maintain the car, you clean the car,  you fuel the car.  You get paid for its use.  It's your car when you want to use it and remove from service.   Imagine, you go on vacation, drive to another city, get a hotel and release your car while you enjoy a restful afternoon or restaurant meal.  The whole time your car is working for you while you relax.  I'm certain some full service stations will gladly refuel and maintain your car in a nationwide network.  You make the investment,  Uber books the car and pays you for use.
Would be difficult to use evs for this; after your deive the car would need to charge the whole time you are eating or relaxing. Uber just wants to replace their drivers with a cheaper option as soon as practical, period.

This is actually a really interesting juxtaposition between new technologies (the Uber model and EVs):

Autonomous vehicles which can be called when needed is kind of predicated on the fact that most cars aren't used most of the time. They are taking that downtime and creating an efficiency saving by saying those cars don't need to be owned individually and parked up 90% of the time, they could be moving other people.

The move towards EVs requires long periods of standing cars though, for them to take on charge.

I guess it is all solved by the cars being charged overnight (when there is very little demand) and batteries being large and efficient enough to run a car all day.
Or solved with more cars (than using ICE vehicles would) or car designs that allow or quick, automated swapping of the batteries- no absolute need for the car to be parked, just the batteries. Will be an interesting problem to solve, no doubt.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1340 on: March 10, 2017, 06:43:21 AM »
I'm thinking Uber might want people to buy self driving cars and put them into Uber service.   That way they don't have to maintain the cars.  You maintain the car, you clean the car,  you fuel the car.  You get paid for its use.  It's your car when you want to use it and remove from service.   Imagine, you go on vacation, drive to another city, get a hotel and release your car while you enjoy a restful afternoon or restaurant meal.  The whole time your car is working for you while you relax.  I'm certain some full service stations will gladly refuel and maintain your car in a nationwide network.  You make the investment,  Uber books the car and pays you for use.

Interesting.  I could see Uber wanting to sell/lease to the public its selfdriving car with the intent that it would be part of the Uber fleet when not used by its primary owner.  Not sure I would want to enter into that sort of deal but it could workout. 

Tesla Model X is being sold as having 295 miles of range (https://www.tesla.com/modelx), so even a 40 mile commute still leaves significant range for self-drive Ubering while the owner is at work or in the evening.  Not as much range as IC but we would need to start looking at how many trips and average trip distance a current Uber driver takes in a day.  Maybe 200 miles is a useful range, I dont know.  Also you would need to look at how cycling to full range would affect battery longevity; the economics might still work out.  Not really in the mood to go gather data and do math :-)
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1341 on: March 10, 2017, 10:06:05 AM »
The move towards EVs requires long periods of standing cars though, for them to take on charge.

I guess it is all solved by the cars being charged overnight (when there is very little demand) and batteries being large and efficient enough to run a car all day.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_station

The current Tesla supercharger can give you a 50% capacity in 20 minutes.  The next version of the Tesla supercharger goes from 145kw(current charger) to more than 350kw.  Battery technology is also continuously upgrading.  I could see Uber cars using EV and then going out of service for 20 minutes for a charge while robots clean the vehicle during the charge.  Then you will have very clean cars as they will be cleaned once or more per day.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1342 on: March 10, 2017, 01:13:40 PM »
And Tesla could start out in urban centers where most trips are short and the could strategically place their chargers around.  If it was all autonomous, they could optimize for when/where each car would get recharged throughout the day so that they still have their "territory" ready to serve customers at every given time/place. 

Autonomous electric shared vehicles seem's like a great sweet spot to me.  The downside of the electric vehicle is range, but if you can essentially swap cars out as others charge periodically, that goes away.  The upside of the electric vehicles is far fewer parts that can break, so much less on repairs.  Seems like Telsla could have a niche here in the future. 

And if they can get consumers to buy the cars, then rent them back to tesla for 80% of the day, it's an even bigger win for tesla.  They will get paid for the car upfront, then they can "rent" the vehicle back and make additional profit from the car.  And the owners will offset the cost of the car in rent.  Seems like a pretty good deal for everyone. 

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1343 on: March 10, 2017, 01:47:40 PM »
I didn't read all the posts, but Bill's idea is the most stupid thing I've ever heard.  Doesn't he understand that the definition of "robot" is entirely undefined (should it have arms and look like a person?) and that all the PC's microsoft has produced would likely come under any definition.

It's basically an assault on innovation, which has repeatedly been shown to raise living standards.

I find this sort of thinking usually comes from people who have already "made their fortune" and have some guilt about it.

The Mises Institute recently wrote an article on this topic.

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1344 on: March 10, 2017, 06:28:42 PM »
Even a plain old inexpensive not-so-fancy <100 mile range Nissan Leaf can charge to 80% of full charge in 30 min.  They all can, using a "type 3" charger, not just Tesla.


The average Uber trip is 6 miles.  Maybe double that for the travel to where ever the next pick up is.  One EV might not be able to go the entire day without charging, but (with current tech, and without being a 75k car), good for 6 trips between 30 min charges, certainly enough time to make a little extra income on a car that's not being used
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1345 on: March 10, 2017, 06:39:33 PM »
How twisted is it that we are developing robots that can basically do everybody's work for them, yet people are not getting free money and extra leisure time as a result? How the Hell did we screw that up?

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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1346 on: March 10, 2017, 07:10:14 PM »
How twisted is it that we are developing robots that can basically do everybody's work for them, yet people are not getting free money and extra leisure time as a result? How the Hell did we screw that up?
We essentially traded free time for a drastically higher standard of living. People are greedy, and if they can make more money, have more luxuries and be more comfortable, they will often trade that for free time.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1347 on: March 10, 2017, 09:28:04 PM »
We are getting free money.  You've just gotta pay to play.  I invested in the 90s for the free money I'm getting now.  I was buying mutual funds that were investing into business that is making me robo dollars now.  Trading hours for dollars is what you do when you're poor.  You sacrifice when you're young and invest.   The stock market is the biggest robot in the world now. 
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1348 on: March 11, 2017, 01:42:05 AM »
We are getting free money.  You've just gotta pay to play.  I invested in the 90s for the free money I'm getting now.  I was buying mutual funds that were investing into business that is making me robo dollars now.  Trading hours for dollars is what you do when you're poor.  You sacrifice when you're young and invest.   The stock market is the biggest robot in the world now.
Invest as early and much as one can; I'm living proof of that.
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Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #1349 on: March 11, 2017, 04:24:12 AM »
Even a plain old inexpensive not-so-fancy <100 mile range Nissan Leaf can charge to 80% of full charge in 30 min.  They all can, using a "type 3" charger, not just Tesla.


The average Uber trip is 6 miles.  Maybe double that for the travel to where ever the next pick up is.  One EV might not be able to go the entire day without charging, but (with current tech, and without being a 75k car), good for 6 trips between 30 min charges, certainly enough time to make a little extra income on a car that's not being used

Definitely.  And imagine how much quieter our cities could become in 40 years.