Author Topic: Robots and their impact on the future  (Read 216081 times)

Insanity

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1026
@Bakari:
Quote
The other big one is political.  Under a free market, increases in efficiency are likely to benefit everyone.  But under capitalism, they only benefit investors, at the expense of labor

Can you explain or link the difference between free market and capitalism?  I would have thought them about synonymous.  Or did you have crony capitalism or our bastardized protectionist capitalism in mind?

Can I ever!  I just recently finished writing a ten part series on that: http://biodieselhauling.blogspot.com/2014/04/free-market-vs-capitalism.html
everyone seems to think they are synonymous - which I suspect was deliberate political PR by capitalists. Not only are they not synonymous, they are actively opposed. 
The original free-market economist, Adam Smith, was very clear about the difference, but people who quote him most often conveniently ignore those parts.
And, sure, corruption can make it even worse, but that's a whole separate thing.

I have to say, I only read parts of it.  And I think why I only read parts of it is because the writing style and layout just was a bit distracting.  The content itself was interesting, just hard to focus on with those changes.  Then again, I'm easily distracted.

tomsang

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 966
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #101 on: June 10, 2014, 09:00:24 AM »
Really interesting article that does a good job at addressing the need to figure out the role in society and the need for thought and debate on how robots are used to improve our lives as we enter this prosperous stage in society.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101728464

Insanity

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1026
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #102 on: June 10, 2014, 08:16:08 PM »
The first sequenced human genome was complete in 2003 at a cost of nearly $3 billion, and it took 13 years. Just a decade later we can do the same in a few days for less than $1,000.

I have noted to my wife that it seems more and more teens are coming up with medical advances faster than some of the larger pharmaceuticals. This is one of the reasons why. While robots might take jobs, information is what provides the ability to gain wealth.  The question is what will wealth mean in 20-30 years from now.

And how will that impact FIRE :)


tomsang

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 966
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #103 on: June 12, 2014, 10:47:25 AM »
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101751468
Google futurist and engineering director.

Computers will achieve human level intelligence and the ability to have human level emotional relationship with them by 2029.

"My timeline is computers will be at human levels, such as you can have a human relationship with them, 15 years from now," he said. Kurzweil's comments came at the Exponential Finance conference in New York on Wednesday.

3D printing of clothing by 2020.

Solar power is underrated.   

Medicine - We will be able to reprogram our cells, which will allow us to reprogram away from cancer, heart disease, including aging in the near future.   

Personal digital assistants in the next five to 10 years.

What does this mean to mustachians?
Portfolios may need to be built to survive to infinity, having the resources to buy/pay for the technology that may be controlled by corporations, how to assist your kids/grandkids to take advantage of these changes, and understanding how laws and society develops to share the wealth with the huge technology gains that will be occurring within the next 20 years.             

jordanread

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5975
  • Age: 32
  • Location: Colorado Springs
  • Live Long, Live Free, Drop Dead
    • Frugal FIRE Show
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #104 on: June 12, 2014, 12:04:05 PM »
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101751468
Google futurist and engineering director.

Computers will achieve human level intelligence and the ability to have human level emotional relationship with them by 2029.

"My timeline is computers will be at human levels, such as you can have a human relationship with them, 15 years from now," he said. Kurzweil's comments came at the Exponential Finance conference in New York on Wednesday.

3D printing of clothing by 2020.

Solar power is underrated.   

Medicine - We will be able to reprogram our cells, which will allow us to reprogram away from cancer, heart disease, including aging in the near future.   

Personal digital assistants in the next five to 10 years.

What does this mean to mustachians?
Portfolios may need to be built to survive to infinity, having the resources to buy/pay for the technology that may be controlled by corporations, how to assist your kids/grandkids to take advantage of these changes, and understanding how laws and society develops to share the wealth with the huge technology gains that will be occurring within the next 20 years.           

I'm finding more and more stuff like this popping up wherever I look. It definitely makes things interesting. I'm about to engage in a discussion about this very topic. I already know the guy thinks that those in power wouldn't want some type of post-scarcity society to come about, since scarcity keeps them in power. I also need to read Bakari's stuff on this, and a couple of other books, but get my thoughts down on return. This stuff is pretty exciting though, and I really enjoy the thought exercise.
Join the cycling challenge!
Get in shape in 2017!
Frugal FIRE - Episode 2

"Mustachians rarely sit back and let things happen to them. Mustachians go out and happen to things."

Camp Mustache Canada - Sold Out Already!!

MrsPete

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3277
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #105 on: June 12, 2014, 06:59:11 PM »
Two things I've seen lately that foretell changes in the way we shop:

- In the past I've seen a kiosk selling Proactive (acne medicine) at the mall.  Recently I saw that it's been replaced with a vending machine.  Put in your credit card, out comes your purchase . . . just like a soda. 

- At Panera Bread, I recently saw that they've installed iPads in the stores, and you can walk up to one, place your order, and pay with a credit card . . . then pick up a thingy that'll beep when your order is ready at the counter.

Insanity

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1026
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #106 on: June 12, 2014, 07:10:22 PM »
Two things I've seen lately that foretell changes in the way we shop:

- In the past I've seen a kiosk selling Proactive (acne medicine) at the mall.  Recently I saw that it's been replaced with a vending machine.  Put in your credit card, out comes your purchase . . . just like a soda. 

- At Panera Bread, I recently saw that they've installed iPads in the stores, and you can walk up to one, place your order, and pay with a credit card . . . then pick up a thingy that'll beep when your order is ready at the counter.

Red Robin uses kiosks at tables for ordering drinks and appetizers, not to mention you can pay your bill that way so you don't have to wait for a check.

One contract that I am working on is dealing with things going into Amazon Web Services (the cloud environment).  The amount of computing power they work with is just incredible.  The fact they can manage the type of things they do, automatically, with infrastructure of virtual machines.  I firmly believe anything is possible with computers.  Anything.  You don't have to worry about scarcity, the entire definition of economy is going to change.

How?  Who knows.  I just know that I am in information security and at least until that time happens where people don't care about information being out there - I'll have a job until the robots do take over everything.

matchewed

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4060
  • Location: CT
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #107 on: August 14, 2014, 05:57:09 PM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

Great video from CGP Grey. Worth taking a look see.

greaper007

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1130
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #108 on: August 15, 2014, 04:17:38 PM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

Great video from CGP Grey. Worth taking a look see.

Necro-poster!!!

tomsang

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 966
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #109 on: August 16, 2014, 06:43:05 AM »
It will be interesting to see.  Make up the job losses with volume. Their comment about a highly educated workforce is the wave of the future. Fortunately there is a huge wave of highly compensated machines that will be retiring in the next decade. It sounds like robots will be replacing these jobs.

http://m.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2014/08/13/many-are-working-how-many-people-will-be-replaced.html?r=full



matchewed

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4060
  • Location: CT
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #110 on: August 16, 2014, 08:01:37 AM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

Great video from CGP Grey. Worth taking a look see.

Necro-poster!!!

Guilty as charged. Suspend me mods, I've done wrong. :)

tomsang

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 966
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #111 on: August 16, 2014, 09:40:52 AM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

Great video from CGP Grey. Worth taking a look see.

That was an interesting video. They didn't really address the big question that they posed of what to do with the huge amount of people that are unemployed.

matchewed

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4060
  • Location: CT
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #112 on: August 16, 2014, 10:17:20 AM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

Great video from CGP Grey. Worth taking a look see.

That was an interesting video. They didn't really address the big question that they posed of what to do with the huge amount of people that are unemployed.

I'm fond of CGP's videos in general. He is much more of an explainer of complex issues and their impact. He is not necessarily an advocate of any specific course of action. And you can get a note of, not fatalism, but inevitability in his presentation.

Regarding the what to do with the inevitable unemployed, well I think that will be up to us to decide. There is a bit of a catch-22 going on here where if you have massive unemployment there is no one to buy the things and no incentive to make the things therefore you even have "unemployed", or rather, unused robots. A great deal of money invested in unproductive assets. It certainly will be a challenge and I can think of a few potential (I don't want to call them solutions because I'm not sure if we can call the situation a problem, now in our time of excess and luxury do we really consider the fact that so few people are needed to provide food for a great number of people a "problem"? I think not, there are problems it creates but it is not a problem in of itself) mitigating actions.

While a form of this has happened time and time again this may be the time where it truly is different. We're not going to free up people to do "other" work. We're finally replacing people with not people in a broad spectrum of jobs. Probably most jobs in the next 20-50 years. That will take cultural, legal, governmental, and infrastructure changes to the countries that adopt this. And most countries will that can as it won't be the countries but the businesses. It may seem fantastical but science fiction is a great place to look to see where this sort of society can bring us. And much like a source for inspiration to science may be the source of inspiration on how to deal with the side effects of said science.

ch12

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 596
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #113 on: August 23, 2014, 09:54:31 PM »
There's some Pew research on the impact of AI that I thought would be interesting to you all.

http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/08/06/future-of-jobs/

Leisured

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 402
  • Age: 72
  • Location: South east Australia, in country
  • Retired, and loving it.
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #114 on: August 27, 2014, 02:10:09 AM »

The laws of Nature allow automatic operation. If I stand up, my heart and breathing increase a little, automatically. I do not need to push buttons or pull levers. If I look away from the computer screen and look out of the window, my eyes automatically change focus for long sight. My body digests food automatically. My body is a miniature automated economy.

These matters have been known to science since the 1950s, and Mother Nature has set us an intelligence test; automate the economy. We have been climbing up from barbarism over the last 8000 years, and the next step in this progress is for people in an automated economy to move up to the level of a leisured class, and draw a Basic Income from the economy. This not an easy task, but it is more of a political and social matter than an economic matter. The emergence of advanced machinery is likely to open the door to the transition to a largely automated economy in about 20 years. Will people walk through the door?

In the past, science writers and commentators assumed that most people would eventually pass Mother Nature’s test, but it now looks as though most people will fail the test, and will not even know there is a test. It will not surprise me if, in 20 years, most voters demand restrictions on the use of advanced machinery to retain jobs. Is this intelligence or stupidity?

Bakari

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1738
  • Age: 37
  • Location: Oakland, CA
  • Veggie Powered Handyman
    • The Flamboyant Introvert
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #115 on: August 27, 2014, 07:21:18 AM »
It will not surprise me if, in 20 years, most voters demand restrictions on the use of advanced machinery to retain jobs. Is this intelligence or stupidity?


Of whom?  The voters?
Its a consequence of setting up a capitalist system in which those who own the advanced machinery get 100% of the profit, and those who are replaced by them get 0%

It would obviously be smarter to change the system of economic distribution, but that would be much harder to do.  It would mean changing a huge part of the most fundamental parts of our concept of ownership and value and rights.
Anything I've said here useful or interesting?  Find a lot more of my thoughts here: http://randomthoughts.fyi

arebelspy

  • Administrator
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *****
  • Posts: 25795
  • Age: -999
  • Location: Traveling the World
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #116 on: August 27, 2014, 10:58:11 AM »
We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, and now travel the world full time with a kid.
If you want to know more about me, or how we did that, or see lots of pictures, this Business Insider profile tells our story pretty well.
We (occasionally) blog at AdventuringAlong.com.
You can also read my forum "Journal."

RichLife

  • Guest
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #117 on: August 27, 2014, 11:13:25 AM »
I for one welcome our new robot overlords ;) On a more serious note, I actually like the idea of a future where work becomes something you want rather than have to do. Not sure if it is Mustachian of me or not, but I think that if we moved towards a system where everyone gets a certain basic income we'd all be better for it. That way we could spend our time on what we enjoy doing, like for example sell paintings for extra income rather than slave away in a 9 to 5 grind. In fact, it sounds a lot like being FI except it would be for everyone :) Maybe a very utopian view, but I like to secretly hope that future generations will have it better in that regard. Just like how we already fare lots better than say people in the industrial revolution.

Leisured

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 402
  • Age: 72
  • Location: South east Australia, in country
  • Retired, and loving it.
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #118 on: August 31, 2014, 12:08:33 AM »
It will not surprise me if, in 20 years, most voters demand restrictions on the use of advanced machinery to retain jobs. Is this intelligence or stupidity?


Of whom?  The voters?
Its a consequence of setting up a capitalist system in which those who own the advanced machinery get 100% of the profit, and those who are replaced by them get 0%

It would obviously be smarter to change the system of economic distribution, but that would be much harder to do.  It would mean changing a huge part of the most fundamental parts of our concept of ownership and value and rights.


My father told me that during the Great Depression – he was a boy at the time – there were families camped in public gardens, and plenty of rental houses empty. The landlords wanted tenants, and the campers wanted to rent houses, but the money system had temporarily broken down.

The parallel that is emerging today is that owners of capital need customers for their products, otherwise there will be no sales. Workers are the most numerous customers, but workers need paid jobs to buy things. It is in the interests of both owners and workers to support the idea of a Basic Income. This point is what I had in mind when I wondered about intelligent behaviour.

There was a General Strike in England in 1926, which was partly about wages and condition in coal mines. Winston Churchill was a senior politician at the time, and was part of efforts to break the deadlock in talks between miners and mine owners. He said that he met the miners first, and thought they were the most stupid men in England. Then he met the mine owners…


arebelspy

  • Administrator
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *****
  • Posts: 25795
  • Age: -999
  • Location: Traveling the World
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #119 on: August 31, 2014, 12:24:02 AM »
There was a General Strike in England in 1926, which was partly about wages and condition in coal mines. Winston Churchill was a senior politician at the time, and was part of efforts to break the deadlock in talks between miners and mine owners. He said that he met the miners first, and thought they were the most stupid men in England. Then he met the mine owners…

Presumably at the time Mr. Churchill wasn't being paid by the owners, a slight problem we have today regarding politicians...
We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, and now travel the world full time with a kid.
If you want to know more about me, or how we did that, or see lots of pictures, this Business Insider profile tells our story pretty well.
We (occasionally) blog at AdventuringAlong.com.
You can also read my forum "Journal."

tomsang

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 966
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #120 on: September 02, 2014, 06:57:40 PM »
I for one welcome our new robot overlords ;)

I saw this on yahoo and thought of your quote!

‘Robot overlords’: Coming our way soon?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101962796

tomsang

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 966
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #121 on: September 04, 2014, 11:21:24 PM »

his "device isn’t meant to make employees more efficient. It’s meant to completely obviate them."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/momentum-machines-burger-robot-2014-8#ixzz3CPpGmri1

I like the bluntness of this guy.

theadvicist

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1328
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #122 on: September 05, 2014, 08:20:30 AM »
This is a really interesting thread!

I have a question, and it might well be a very stupid one, but here goes: What is the exact difference between a robot and a machine? Eg. newspapers are printed by machine, I'm sure we've all seen video footage of that. But cars are now being built by robots. What makes them robots and not machines, and the printing press a machine and not a robot? Are all robots also machines, but not all machines robots?

matchewed

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4060
  • Location: CT
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #123 on: September 05, 2014, 11:04:24 AM »
This is a really interesting thread!

I have a question, and it might well be a very stupid one, but here goes: What is the exact difference between a robot and a machine? Eg. newspapers are printed by machine, I'm sure we've all seen video footage of that. But cars are now being built by robots. What makes them robots and not machines, and the printing press a machine and not a robot? Are all robots also machines, but not all machines robots?

More of a semantic discussion than anything. But in general a robot would be defined as (if you go by wikipedia) a machine which is made in such a way as to duplicate a specific function of a human or animal. Basically a mechanical version of something we already have; arms, legs...etc.

A machine is a tool that does an action but may not replicate a specific human or animal function.

Or for more examples - robot.


Machine



One will be very intuitively understood what function it serves. The other... probably not.

theadvicist

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1328
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #124 on: September 08, 2014, 01:45:52 AM »
Thanks matchewed, that makes sense!

tomsang

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 966
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #125 on: September 11, 2014, 09:49:49 PM »
One of my companies has a robot in one of these industries.

http://www.wisebread.com/robots-will-take-over-these-5-jobs-soon-is-one-of-them-yours


tomsang

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 966
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #126 on: September 13, 2014, 09:53:19 AM »
I was reading Yahoo news and saw Nancy Pelosi stating that civilization as we know it will be in jeopardy if the GOP wins the senate.

http://news.yahoo.com/nancy-pelosi-civilization-know-jeopardy-124400035.html

Big claims, but as others mentioned Robots will improve GDP and the quality of life but the question is where do those benefits reside. Will all tides rise or will robots be used to benefit the 1% and be used to protect them from the 99%.  The laws that are written today will impact how the technological advances benefit society in the future. Thoughts on the types of laws that should be made?

tomsang

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 966
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #127 on: September 17, 2014, 08:14:29 AM »

jordanread

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5975
  • Age: 32
  • Location: Colorado Springs
  • Live Long, Live Free, Drop Dead
    • Frugal FIRE Show
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #128 on: September 17, 2014, 10:11:28 AM »
Interesting and scary article about technology.


http://io9.com/10-horrifying-technologies-that-should-never-be-allowed-1635238363


I'm always torn when I see articles like this. Some of the questions need to be addressed for sure, but I don't think that potential for misuse is a reason to not pursue something. I suppose when it comes to technology, I'm a bit of an optimist. I believe that technology can be part of a drastic change that could really make things a hell of a lot better (and considering how good we have it now...that's saying something). Could it be worse, too? Absolutely. As I'm typing this, I just had a thought:

So sometimes the argument is that the collective 'we' shouldn't pursue a technology, because there is the potential that 'they' could misuse it, and cause massive and irreparable harm. However, 'we' not pursuing it doesn't necessarily mean 'they' won't. Now it's beginning to sound like justification for an arms race, which bugs me, but I think my brain is trying to take me down the path that 'we' might as well get the good things out of technology, instead of being run by fear. Granted, for this to work, there needs to be a shift in thinking. We are still caught up in this imperialist mind set. This us against the world style thinking (and it doesn't really matter who you are, or what criteria you use to define 'us', I haven't found very many exceptions to this rule). I think big-picture thinking will have to win out. We need to realize we are all part of a whole, and doing something that benefits all of us...well, that is where the benefits of technology will truly shine. Fear is an awful reason to [not] act. That gets people stuck in ruts. Kind of reminds me of the study with the monkeys, the ladder, and the hose.

What do you think?

[...]
Will all tides rise or will robots be used to benefit the 1% and be used to protect them from the 99%. [...]

I think this ties in with the shift in thinking I mentioned above. Did you read the Manna story upthread? This doesn't quite go the route I think we should go, but it does draw some interesting comparisons with two separate 'entities', one in which profits and benefits go to the 1%, and one in which a more global thought pattern is addressed.

As far as the laws go, I don't hold out much hope, or put much stake in it truly effecting technology (maybe only how quickly it comes to benefit people). I mean, we still can't even agree that the Internet should be common carrier...but that's neither here nor there. I don't think any government can truly keep up with technology, so I think we currently need to make sure we police ourselves, and use the power we do have to ensure things don't go all crazy.

Just general musings first thing in the morning.
Join the cycling challenge!
Get in shape in 2017!
Frugal FIRE - Episode 2

"Mustachians rarely sit back and let things happen to them. Mustachians go out and happen to things."

Camp Mustache Canada - Sold Out Already!!

jordanread

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5975
  • Age: 32
  • Location: Colorado Springs
  • Live Long, Live Free, Drop Dead
    • Frugal FIRE Show
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #129 on: September 17, 2014, 01:30:37 PM »
Just gonna leave this here, so I can remember to read it later. It's preliminary, but something I'll definitely continue following. Also, it ties in with the thoughts on legislation.

http://intelligence.org/2013/09/12/how-well-will-policy-makers-handle-agi-initial-findings/.
Join the cycling challenge!
Get in shape in 2017!
Frugal FIRE - Episode 2

"Mustachians rarely sit back and let things happen to them. Mustachians go out and happen to things."

Camp Mustache Canada - Sold Out Already!!

tomsang

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 966
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #130 on: September 20, 2014, 11:31:36 AM »
Technology - more pay, less jobs. Make sure you and your kids are on the right side of technology and education.

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2014/09/19/mcdonalds-tablets-automate-ordering-living-wage-fight/

Interesting watch this play out.

tomsang

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 966
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #131 on: September 22, 2014, 05:05:33 PM »
Mercedes newest self driving trucks!  It will be interesting to see how quickly they displace the current drivers.

https://autos.yahoo.com/blogs/motoramic/mercedes-benz-reveals-future-truck-2025--the-optimus-prime-of-self-driving-semis-204305500.html

Cyrano

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 124
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #132 on: September 22, 2014, 05:39:06 PM »
If and when we reach a point where technological unemployment is no longer Other People's Problem, then the moral case against redistributionist socialism will have vanished, and we will be rich enough to pay for it. The adjustment could be rocky in places.

ch12

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 596
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #133 on: September 26, 2014, 02:40:58 PM »
Yet another one, pulling from one of the authors of the Second Machine Age (Erik Brynjolfsson) and Robert Shiller, who all of us here know and love. The idea floated is livelihood insurance.

http://www.mckinsey.com/Insights/Public_Sector/The_Great_Decoupling?cid=mckq50-eml-alt-mkq-mck-oth-1409

Some of it's fluff, to be sure, and not new to most people who are on this thread. Still, it's an enjoyable and relatively short article.

Albert

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1254
  • Location: Switzerland
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #134 on: September 27, 2014, 07:59:32 AM »
Mercedes newest self driving trucks!  It will be interesting to see how quickly they displace the current drivers.

https://autos.yahoo.com/blogs/motoramic/mercedes-benz-reveals-future-truck-2025--the-optimus-prime-of-self-driving-semis-204305500.html

The question is will they for legal reasons ever be allowed to have no human in the truck at all (driving or not). Until that is a case there is no reduction in employment.

tomsang

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 966
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #135 on: September 27, 2014, 08:54:58 AM »
The question is will they for legal reasons ever be allowed to have no human in the truck at all (driving or not). Until that is a case there is no reduction in employment.

Four years ago it was illegal to have an autonomous car. Today it is legal in four states. Google's newest car has no steering wheel nor pedals. There have been two reported accidents after 700,000 miles of driving. In one accident the car was rear ended while stopped at a stoplight and the other accident was when the car was being driven manually. Both obviously were human error. The most likely scenario will be that it will be illegal to drive a car manually in a few decades as it is too dangerous.

When you have freight and people moving around with no accidents nor breaks the laws will follow. There is nothing safe about human drivers.

I would predict that within 10 years that it will be legal in all 50 states and within 25 years it will be illegal to drive your own car. Your grandchildren will think it is crazy that people used to manually control an object weighing thousands of pounds moving 60 miles an hour. Very unsafe!!!

Leisured

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 402
  • Age: 72
  • Location: South east Australia, in country
  • Retired, and loving it.
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #136 on: September 27, 2014, 08:59:26 AM »

This has all happened before; it is known as feudalism. As advanced machines take over jobs, the ‘nobles’, that is people, extract an unearned income from the peasants and workers, who are now machines. Feudalism Phase 1 emerged in the ancient world thousands of years ago. Feudalism Phase 2 will emerge within ten years, where all humans are regarded as ’nobles’, and who generally do not work, and machines take the place of peasants and workers. I have mentioned this many times before. Why is this hard to understand?

In Mississippi in 1800 sugar planters harvested sugar cane with slave labor. In 1900 they used paid labor. Now they use machines. Slave labor, paid labor and machines are interchangeable. We do not want slave labor, and we will in the future prefer machines to paid labor. Why is this hard to understand?

Consider Jane Austen’s novels, where landowners drew an unearned income from owning land, and other investments. Earning an income from owning land was regarded as a ‘legitimate’ way of drawing an income, and still does. You will notice that I use the word ‘draw’ rather than the word ‘earn’. The day will come when drawing an income from taxing robots will also be regarded as a legitimate way of drawing an income.

This has been known to science, as a long term matter, since the fifties. Are people clever enough to understand these matters, or will these matters turn out to be an intelligence test which only a minority will understand? Science offers all people in the world the opportunity to move up to the noble level, in time. Will they even understand what is on offer?


matchewed

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4060
  • Location: CT
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #137 on: September 27, 2014, 09:59:47 AM »
This has all happened before; it is known as feudalism. As advanced machines take over jobs, the ‘nobles’, that is people, extract an unearned income from the peasants and workers, who are now machines. Feudalism Phase 1 emerged in the ancient world thousands of years ago. Feudalism Phase 2 will emerge within ten years, where all humans are regarded as ’nobles’, and who generally do not work, and machines take the place of peasants and workers. I have mentioned this many times before. Why is this hard to understand?

In Mississippi in 1800 sugar planters harvested sugar cane with slave labor. In 1900 they used paid labor. Now they use machines. Slave labor, paid labor and machines are interchangeable. We do not want slave labor, and we will in the future prefer machines to paid labor. Why is this hard to understand?

Consider Jane Austen’s novels, where landowners drew an unearned income from owning land, and other investments. Earning an income from owning land was regarded as a ‘legitimate’ way of drawing an income, and still does. You will notice that I use the word ‘draw’ rather than the word ‘earn’. The day will come when drawing an income from taxing robots will also be regarded as a legitimate way of drawing an income.

This has been known to science, as a long term matter, since the fifties. Are people clever enough to understand these matters, or will these matters turn out to be an intelligence test which only a minority will understand? Science offers all people in the world the opportunity to move up to the noble level, in time. Will they even understand what is on offer?

Let's take this one paragraph at a time. First, it is not a guarantee that what has happened will happen again. That is just a claim you are making. Your analogy isn't hard to understand, some people just happen to disagree with it. Your premise that all people will suddenly turn into nobility is just an assumption. If you disagree with the assumption then you don't necessarily come to the same conclusion.

I totally agree that we'll use machines in the future. That isn't hard to understand. And I don't think anyone is disagreeing with that premise.

In order to tax the robots, as you put it, they will need to be earning wages. Or you're just working off of a corporate tax. Well if no actual people have jobs, who's buying the stuff that is required for the corporations to pay the taxes? Whether you say draw or earn is meaningless. The money has to originate from somewhere, it doesn't magically appear. Money is exchanged for labor, when people no longer labor where do they get their money?

What has been known to science? Could you lay out the unspoken theory or hypothesis you're referring too? Looking back at history is not necessarily science but history. Science is done with repeat experiments and doesn't offer anything other than pure knowledge, it is how people choose to use knowledge that makes the world. There is no guarantee for the fuzzy happy land picture you're painting.

tomsang

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 966
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #138 on: October 23, 2014, 02:45:18 PM »
New Boeing 777X wing plant: A lot of automated equipment, not so many workers

http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2014/10/21/new-boeing-777x-wing-plant-a-lot-of-automated.html?page=all

"If you think that Boeing's new 1.3 million-square-foot 777X wing plant will be teeming with Boeing workers, think again."

I have seen the automation.  Very impressive in accuracy, lack of downtime, and elimination of employees.

tomsang

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 966
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #139 on: October 25, 2014, 10:22:17 AM »
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102121127

Elon Musk says "AI is like summoning the demon"

Interesting comments from a tech guy that has a completely automated factory.

MoneyCat

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1758
  • Location: New Jersey
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #140 on: October 25, 2014, 02:22:39 PM »
Robots will inevitably take over almost all unskilled and then skilled jobs.  The numbers of unemployed will increase and wages will decrease due to the massive labor pool.  At that point, pressure will build until there is revolt.  A lot of people will get hurt.  It's happened before and will happen again.  The current era reminds me a lot of what I've read about the "Gilded Age" from the late 1800s-early 1900s.  Hoard your cash because it's all going to come tumbling down again.

arebelspy

  • Administrator
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *****
  • Posts: 25795
  • Age: -999
  • Location: Traveling the World
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #141 on: October 25, 2014, 03:47:29 PM »
Robots will inevitably take over almost all unskilled and then skilled jobs.  The numbers of unemployed will increase and wages will decrease due to the massive labor pool.  At that point, pressure will build until there is revolt.  A lot of people will get hurt.  It's happened before and will happen again.  The current era reminds me a lot of what I've read about the "Gilded Age" from the late 1800s-early 1900s.  Hoard your cash because it's all going to come tumbling down again.

Hoard my cash?  Why wouldn't I invest it in all those companies that are going to be making all the money?  Seems smarter to own some of those than be part of the labor...
We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, and now travel the world full time with a kid.
If you want to know more about me, or how we did that, or see lots of pictures, this Business Insider profile tells our story pretty well.
We (occasionally) blog at AdventuringAlong.com.
You can also read my forum "Journal."

ch12

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 596
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #142 on: October 25, 2014, 05:43:35 PM »
Robots will inevitably take over almost all unskilled and then skilled jobs.  The numbers of unemployed will increase and wages will decrease due to the massive labor pool.  At that point, pressure will build until there is revolt.  A lot of people will get hurt.  It's happened before and will happen again.  The current era reminds me a lot of what I've read about the "Gilded Age" from the late 1800s-early 1900s.  Hoard your cash because it's all going to come tumbling down again.

Hoard my cash?  Why wouldn't I invest it in all those companies that are going to be making all the money?  Seems smarter to own some of those than be part of the labor...

+1

Two sides: ones who own the robots and the ones who are displaced by the robots. I choose to own. Thanks for reminding me to go do my homework on that. I'm invested in a fair amount of software, but I need to look specifically into the top robotics manufacturers.

jordanread

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5975
  • Age: 32
  • Location: Colorado Springs
  • Live Long, Live Free, Drop Dead
    • Frugal FIRE Show
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #143 on: October 26, 2014, 10:08:14 AM »
This is such an awesome time we live in. I have been doing research more into the AI aspect of technology advancement lately (as opposed to just robotics, generally), so I've been reading a lot on the two sides of how people think this is going to go. Initially, I got caught up in the overwhelming optimism of those like Ray Kurzweill and Alan Turing, and when I realized that there were some points that were glossed over, I started looking at the side of those who feel it will be the end of everything. People like Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking (even though Hawking hasn't written much on the subject). One of the most well-balanced books I've read (I'm pretty sure - I read a lot and sometimes they get a bit blurred. I'll confirm later) was Our Final Invention by James Barrat. He does a pretty good job of weighing each side of things.

As far as displacement of workers, though, I think I've decided that given the current structure of things (i.e. a huge wealth gap, an active public market, a consumer-centric society), arebelspy is right in the course of action to take. Mustachians are going to be totally fine. I don't know that any of the '1%' have fully privately held fortunes, so we can completely get our slice of that via owning bits of the companies. Mustachianism for the win!!

Personally, the only thing I would change would be to try to get my hands on one of the 3D house printers (they are still working on it). All of the labor costs go straight into your pocket (minus the discount you provide people), since your costs are so much lower. Other than that, I think I'm solid with my plan. I also think that REITs might wind up being a decent way to go as well (and Vanguard has a fund) as opposed to bonds. Real Estate will only go down when a bubble pops, and those short term things don't matter for us.

Join the cycling challenge!
Get in shape in 2017!
Frugal FIRE - Episode 2

"Mustachians rarely sit back and let things happen to them. Mustachians go out and happen to things."

Camp Mustache Canada - Sold Out Already!!

Albert

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1254
  • Location: Switzerland
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #144 on: October 26, 2014, 10:27:39 AM »
How about those potential Mustachians who are just born? How will they earn enough to start investing if the worst case scenario of massive decrease in needed labour takes place? Let's assume no meaningful inheritance from parents.

rocketpj

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 617
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #145 on: October 26, 2014, 11:13:17 AM »
Science fiction has been exploring the concepts of an automated world supporting a world full of humans living leisurely lives for 150 years or so. 

I think automation is going to happen, extremely rapidly.  I think it has already happened in ways most of us don't really recognize (did anyone send their dictation down to the typing pool to get it entered onto this forum?).

I think some of the professions we currently cannot imagine as possible to automate will be done better by machines.  Family doctor seems like one of those things - a single doctor could probably focus on operating dozens or hundreds of patient interfaces, and spend their time dealing with the things that are not immediately obvious to a machine.  Really, what percentage of a typical doctor's day is spent dealing with the same sets of problems (flu, colds, bumps and scrapes, minor fractures, headaches).  For that matter, I'd bet that most of the 'bad' interactions with the medical system happen when a doctor pigeonholes a particular issue because they've seen it 1000 times already that month. 

Almost every profession could be automated in that way - with actual humans getting further away from the point of contact as automation and problem solving improves.  Lawyers are similarly doomed - most basic contracts can already be done automatically (if we let ourselves do it).  How much of a typical real estate transaction could be done by a bot, if we take a step back and really think about it?

All that said, we are human beings.  As humans we instinctively seek to build our 'status', and culturally we do that right now through wealth and displays of wealth.  Not all of us, but the vast majority of us.  Current trends in automation are likely to dramatically exacerbate wealth inequities, leading to a Gilded Age contrast between ridiculous absurd extremes of ostentation and abject poverty for the majority.  Humans being human, the wealthy will convince themselves they are naturally smarter than the rest - especially those who are born into wealth and have no meaningful idea of how the world works. 

That system will reach a breaking point fairly quickly (probably a decade or so, rather than the historical century or two it usually takes).  I am very curious to see what comes afterwards.  What will we do with a society that can and does produce more than enough to keep every human healthy, happy and with all their needs met, but does not really require more than a very few to direct all that production?

In the Victorian era, the wealthy used to spend their time on ostentatiously useless pursuits (i.e. ancient languages, epic poetry, extensive butterfly collections etc.).  I suspect we'll do the same.  In some ways we already are - it is not a desperately poor person who decides to become an artisanal cheesemaker or make a living selling weird knitting shapes on Etsy. 

Albert

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1254
  • Location: Switzerland
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #146 on: October 26, 2014, 11:46:59 AM »
The other option is a violent revolution. Human history of full of examples of that as well.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5343
  • Age: 40
  • Location: Pacific Northwest

aschmidt2930

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 276
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #148 on: October 26, 2014, 01:55:37 PM »
I see two options:

1) We improve education to produce more workers with the skill sets to fill the next gen job.

2) Unemployment rates begin to rise, and tax rates increase to support the percentage of the population who cannot find jobs. 

I pick 1.

Albert

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1254
  • Location: Switzerland
Re: Robots and their impact on the future
« Reply #149 on: October 26, 2014, 01:57:58 PM »
I see two options:

1) We improve education to produce more workers with the skill sets to fill the next gen job.

2) Unemployment rates begin to rise, and tax rates increase to support the percentage of the population who cannot find jobs. 

I pick 1.

All this thread is about a hypothetical situation where #1 is impossible. Maybe we are wrong and it never happens, but if it does extra education will not be an answer.