Author Topic: Republican Tax Plan 2017  (Read 74850 times)

sol

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1100 on: December 05, 2017, 06:43:40 PM »
One real major change also comes from the minor bump to the bracket cutoffs and the senate plan flat out cuts every tax tier by 2.5 or 3%. If the final bill keeps that it makes a big difference in the short term. Overall it could make it easier to stay out of the 25%/22% bracket with enough deductions.

The bracket bumps are temporary.  They adjusted the inflation adjustments to brackets so that they grow more slowly, so everyone's marginal rates will creep up over time.

And remember that ALL of the other personal tax reductions are temporary.  The "doubled" standard deduction is temporary.  The increased child tax credit is temporary.  But the loss of personal deductions and exemptions is permanent.  Your taxes will go up when the bill is fully phased in!

The temporary doubling of the standard deduction means anyone who takes the standard gets a tax cut in 2018.   Most of them don't know the republicans want the doubled standard deduction to disappear in a few years.

For people who itemize the situation is more complicated, but most (~60%) will get a tax cut in 2018.

But that's because most people that itemize have children, and will get the new expanded child tax credit.  Which is only partially refundable, and which will also expire once the bill is fully phased in.  At least up front, though, having more kids means you'll get a bigger tax cut in 2018.

Here's a decent summary of the impacts on different kinds of tax filers:  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/28/upshot/what-the-tax-bill-would-look-like-for-25000-middle-class-families.html

madamwitty

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1101 on: December 05, 2017, 07:32:46 PM »
Here's a decent summary of the impacts on different kinds of tax filers:  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/28/upshot/what-the-tax-bill-would-look-like-for-25000-middle-class-families.html

Interesting analysis! But scrolling down to the bottom and looking at the effect on taxes in 2027, I don't understand why it shows such small numbers for the increase in taxes. The worse case is a family with $640 increase in taxes, whereas the worst case for 2018 is an increase of $3,780. If only the "good stuff" is expiring (doubled standard deduction, more generous child credit, lower tax rates) then why are taxes looking better for many folks in 2027 compared to 2018? What am I missing?

Wise Virgin

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1102 on: December 05, 2017, 07:35:39 PM »
The debt is going to increase anyway. You know that, right?

This Republican tax plan should be viewed as more than a tax plan, it's also a geopolitical power maneuver to keep us relevant and check the influence of competitors. Similar to "Star Wars."

So, the debt is going to increase anyway, so give the wealthiest more money? That makes no sense.

Neither does that last quoted statement. What about the tax plan is going to keep the United States relevant exactly?
Reduction in the corporate rate and repatriation of funds held out of the country.

As a thought experiment, imagine yourself as a competitor to the United States, as things are now, and alternatively as they would be under the new plan. Which do you like better?

I was traveling and did not have time to reply.

What!? What are you talking about? Repatriation of funds? I think I understand that you prescribe to the theory that corporations will somehow be investing, expanding and hiring with extra money they will receive from this tax bill. Nonsense. This doesn't happen. Our economy is fairly strong, we are employed as a country. In short, we don't need a stimulus now. We should be paying off debt instead of making it.

What's going to happen? The Fed is going to raise interest rates to stave off inflation. Corporations will be rich while we go into a downturn, but regular people the Republicans always say they care so much about will get screwed. They're going to gut Obamacare, social security, Medicaid and Medicare. Their wet dream will become reality.

EDIT: My post was in limbo.
I'm pretty sure you didn't actually do the thought experiment. Too bad, we could have discussed your insights.

The Fed will be stocked with doves and follow an accommodative policy, I think the signs are clear.

Unusual solutions to long-standing problems will be proposed, from unexpected sources.

Your disaster scenario seems like it came straight out of the media. Personally I avoid regular news and opinion media, I like business news better. I notice the businesspeople in interviews are animated, bullish, full of plans, and look like they are finally having a good time. None of them are frightened of the Fed.

Wise Virgin

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1103 on: December 05, 2017, 07:57:58 PM »


The most important element of all is the one most seem oblivious to: the animal spirits. People are really sick of sitting around obsessing about what the Federal Reserve is going to do. They want to spend.



Tell me more about these animal spirits...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_spirits_(Keynes)

accolay

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1104 on: December 05, 2017, 11:42:35 PM »
I'm pretty sure you didn't actually do the thought experiment. Too bad, we could have discussed your insights.

The Fed will be stocked with doves and follow an accommodative policy, I think the signs are clear.

Unusual solutions to long-standing problems will be proposed, from unexpected sources.

Your disaster scenario seems like it came straight out of the media. Personally I avoid regular news and opinion media, I like business news better. I notice the businesspeople in interviews are animated, bullish, full of plans, and look like they are finally having a good time. None of them are frightened of the Fed.
Well, it's not that you don't trust media, it's that you only trust the media you've chosen to trust. What if an opinion is from an actual economist? Does that count?

Moving on: it's not my disaster scenario. It's basically most economists' scenario.
Is Forbes too media-y for you?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntharvey/2017/12/02/economists-say-the-trump-tax-plan-will-have-disastrous-consequences/#4319f3a44209

How about Business Insider?
http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-gop-tax-plan-tax-economist-says-senate-bill-crazy-stupid-2017-11

Bloomberg?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-28/most-economists-agree-trump-tax-plan-will-widen-budget-deficit

Unsure what the WSJ says, since I don't have a subscription and libraries are closed right now. I'd label that as a biased source however, considering the owner.

The reason they look so happy is because they're going to making money hand over fist off of this giveaway to them. It wont stimulate an economy that doesn't need stimulating. It wont show up other countries. It's going to make the people who own and run the companies rich. It does not trickle down. I'm sorry.

Edit to fix quote.


Mr Mark

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1105 on: December 06, 2017, 12:45:38 AM »
The high level tax plan is doing exactly what the Republicans wanted.
1/big tax cut for their donors and the rich shareholding class
2/ penalise democratic strongholds (NY and Cali) that have high state and city taxes.
3/ensure nasty side effects on blue collar republicans and middle class don't get noticed until after 2018 and 2020 elections
4/ increase deficit but blame entitlements and democrats.  Slash Medicaid and future SS to 'fix'

Looks like they will get away with it.

Mr. Mark

RangerOne

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1106 on: December 06, 2017, 08:33:06 AM »
One real major change also comes from the minor bump to the bracket cutoffs and the senate plan flat out cuts every tax tier by 2.5 or 3%. If the final bill keeps that it makes a big difference in the short term. Overall it could make it easier to stay out of the 25%/22% bracket with enough deductions.

The bracket bumps are temporary.  They adjusted the inflation adjustments to brackets so that they grow more slowly, so everyone's marginal rates will creep up over time.

And remember that ALL of the other personal tax reductions are temporary.  The "doubled" standard deduction is temporary.  The increased child tax credit is temporary.  But the loss of personal deductions and exemptions is permanent.  Your taxes will go up when the bill is fully phased in!

The temporary doubling of the standard deduction means anyone who takes the standard gets a tax cut in 2018.   Most of them don't know the republicans want the doubled standard deduction to disappear in a few years.

For people who itemize the situation is more complicated, but most (~60%) will get a tax cut in 2018.

But that's because most people that itemize have children, and will get the new expanded child tax credit.  Which is only partially refundable, and which will also expire once the bill is fully phased in.  At least up front, though, having more kids means you'll get a bigger tax cut in 2018.

Here's a decent summary of the impacts on different kinds of tax filers:  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/28/upshot/what-the-tax-bill-would-look-like-for-25000-middle-class-families.html

I preface everything I say about this tax plan by saying cutting taxes on corps to stimulate and economy that has been over stimulated for a decade is stupid.

But the Republicans feel they have no choice because they know 2018 will likely see them lose their full control.

I still think the temporary aspects are a complete crock. They know from experience that no party is willing to let tax breaks for the middle class expire. So I find it unlikely they won't get extended like they were with the bush cuts.

This makes the move and even bigger load of bullshit. But I don't think raising taxes on the middle class directly is an option.

They as you note will do it the old fashion way with inflation and then cuts to public services. No one is able to stomach overt tax increases.

Aelias

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1107 on: December 06, 2017, 08:58:43 AM »
Had an interesting conversation with my husband about the tax plan as part of the tax code's treatment of income from investment over income from labor.

On balance, we'll probably end up paying more in taxes when these changes are fully phased in--high SALT state and all that.  But, it seems clear that companies are going to be absolutely flush with cash, and most of them are planning to use that money to either increase dividends or jack up their share prices through stock buybacks.  Both of which will probably boost our portfolio considerably and, depending on timing and when the next inevitable recession finally comes, may even shave a few years off our FIRE date.

So, as investors, we're going to be rewarded by this.  And, as a result, we're probably going to be removing ourselves from the labor market sooner rather than later.

Putting aside the question of "what if everyone became frugal" and all the valuable work many of us will be doing for our communities during FIRE, if the stated goal of the tax plan is to spur economic growth and vibrancy, incentivizing people to leave the labor force seems contrary to that.  Both of us will probably retire AT LEAST 15 years before "standard" retirement age, meaning we're nixing a combined 30 years of economic output.  This will be happening right about when an aging population will need ever greater support from the working population.

In reality, I suspect the number of people who can realistically FIRE is so small that it didn't even rise to the level of an afterthought in this process.  But it begs the question of whether investment is too heavily incentivized and labor is too heavily disincentivized.  Essentially, these policies are contributing to the creation of a permanent class of idle rich--and we're just riding along on the tiniest corner of their coattails.

RangerOne

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1108 on: December 06, 2017, 09:20:47 AM »
The sad thing is in theory the Republicans have it half right. You need a healthy investor class to start new businesses. But by and large we have an extremely healthy investor class and a below peak middle class. But they never moderate their approach based on reality. They always go over the top for heavy handed investor breaks with weak adjustments for working consumers.

The Dems want to solve everything with a new expensive program and rarely just worry about suring up programs like SS and cutting potentially failed programs.

I assume most of this is due to the normal problem of short term demands leading to short sighted action in politics and business. Big wins and action are sexy. Long term planning and refinement are not. But it should be our default mode 99% of the time.

maizeman

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1109 on: December 06, 2017, 09:28:25 AM »
It's an interesting question, Aelias. Total labor force participation of 25-54 year olds peaked back around 2000 at around 85% and has been trending slowly downward ever since. If we still had 2000 era workforce participation that would translate to an extra 6 million 25-54 year olds working (call it something like an extra $200 billion in economic activity each year, which is nothing to sneeze at).

One argument is the one that you lay out that our tax code prioritizes capital at the expense of labor too much. Another is that it reflects a workforce that is increasingly sick, disabled, and dependent on alcohol and opiates (the hillbilly eulogy explanation). A third is that automation is replacing enough need for human labor that more people are having to give up on ever finding work. Or it could be any two of the three. Or all three. Or something else entirely.

Aelias

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1110 on: December 06, 2017, 09:36:54 AM »

One argument is the one that you lay out that our tax code prioritizes capital at the expense of labor too much. Another is that it reflects a workforce that is increasingly sick, disabled, and dependent on alcohol and opiates (the hillbilly eulogy explanation). A third is that automation is replacing enough need for human labor that more people are having to give up on ever finding work. Or it could be any two of the three. Or all three. Or something else entirely.

I suspect it's probably mostly 2 and 3.  Most people who could even hypothetically retire early don't because of consumption, risk aversion, or wanting more money.  And, for the overwhelming majority of people, the disincentivization of work is a non-issue because they need to work to survive.

But the fact that these policies make investment so attractive and so lucrative is part of what makes FIRE a viable proposition.  And, from a macroeconomic perspective, the people who are making enough to invest are probably not the people you want to incentivize to leave early, especially when many people will leave by necessity due to illness/disability/other issues.

To put it another way: the gov't inevitably incentivizes behavior by their tax policy.  I'm not sure this is the kind of behavior they should be incentivizing.

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1111 on: December 06, 2017, 09:44:59 AM »
@maizeman @Aelias

USA GDP is $18.624 trillion, divided by 154.4 million US workers = $120,622/worker
While the added value of 6 million new workers would probably not be at that rate, I think you may be underestimating the boost to GDP if labor participation rates returned to the year 2000 levels

maizeman

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1112 on: December 06, 2017, 09:49:16 AM »
You may very well be right PathtoFIRE. I was going off an average full time salary of ~$35,000/worker, but I think your approach of looking at GDP per worker instead of compensation per worker is probably closer to the truth. That'd put the economic impact of all those missing workers (and missing jobs for the missing workers to take) at north of $700B/year.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1113 on: December 06, 2017, 09:50:39 AM »
http://thehill.com/news-by-subject/energy-environment/363496-coal-ceo-gop-tax-bill-wipes-us-out-destroys-thousands-of

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The CEO of one of the nation’s largest coal companies ripped the Senate tax-reform bill, saying late changes to the bill would “wipe out” coal mining jobs.

Robert Murray, founder and CEO of Murray Energy, said Tuesday that the tax hike on coal mining firms that would result from the changes would cancel out progress that President Trump has made on reviving the coal industry, according to CNN.

“We won’t have enough cash flow to exist,” Murray told CNNMoney. “This wipes out everything that President Trump has done for coal.”

You sound surprised, Mr. Coal Man.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/06/tax-plan-glitches-mistakes-republicans-208049

Quote
Republicans’ tax-rewrite plans are riddled with bugs, loopholes and other potential problems that could plague lawmakers long after their legislation is signed into law.

Some of the provisions could be easily gamed, tax lawyers say. Their plans to cut taxes on “pass-through” businesses in particular could open broad avenues for tax avoidance.

Others would have unintended results, like a last-minute decision by the Senate to keep the alternative minimum tax, which was designed to make sure wealthy people and corporations don't escape taxes altogether. For many businesses, that would nullify the value of a hugely popular break for research and development expenses.

https://www.vanityfair.com/newsletter/2017/12/trump-crony-admits-tax-plan-is-an-elaborate-middle-finger-to-liberals

Quote
TRUMP CRONY ADMITS REPUBLICAN TAX PLAN IS AN ELABORATE MIDDLE FINGER TO LIBERALS

Quote
“They go after state and local taxes, which weakens public employee unions. They go after university endowments, and universities have become play pens of the left. And getting rid of the mandate is to eventually dismantle Obamacare,” Moore said, explaining excitedly that scrapping the requirement that most people obtain coverage will hasten a “death spiral” in the Affordable Care Act’s marketplaces.

https://slate.com/business/2017/12/senate-republicans-may-have-made-a-usd260-billion-mistake-in-their-tax-bill.html

Senate Republicans Made a $289 Billion Mistake in the Handwritten Tax Bill They Passed at 2 a.m. Go Figure.
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djadziadax

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1114 on: December 06, 2017, 10:10:28 AM »
One example of benefit (sparked by a conversation with a colleague) - this plan would be of some benefit to a lot of singles who rent - think of our of college grads. They don't itemize usually and don't make tons. So doubling standard deduction is a boon.
 
But overall is a marginal benefit for most - 1-2K better off...its not all that great, but not terrible.
In my case with a family of four, I gain $12k for the standard deduction, but I lose 4 x $4,050 (2017)
or $16,200 for the personal exemptions.
 In just a few years, I won't have the two kid deductions, Then I'd gain $12k and lose $8,080, coming out ahead, at least on those two changes.
A married couple over 65yrs old get a slightly larger Standard deduction of $14,600.
 That couple gains $9,400 and loses $8,200, for a $1,200 reduction of AGI. Unless there is a senior exemption to the standard deduction change. I see where simplification is happening.

Don't forget the flex family tax credit (worth $300 per adult), the expanded child credit ($1600) and the lower tax brackets.

Again, that great, but not terrible either.

As many have said, the point of this bill is mainly to lower the corporate tax rate and attempt to repatriate cash from overseas. But most will gain on the personal side also, about 2 iPhone X worth a year.

frugalecon

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1115 on: December 06, 2017, 10:26:51 AM »
You may very well be right PathtoFIRE. I was going off an average full time salary of ~$35,000/worker, but I think your approach of looking at GDP per worker instead of compensation per worker is probably closer to the truth. That'd put the economic impact of all those missing workers (and missing jobs for the missing workers to take) at north of $700B/year.

I doubt that the people who have exited the labor force are as productive as the average worker, so this might be an overestimate.

sokoloff

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1116 on: December 06, 2017, 01:19:29 PM »
You may very well be right PathtoFIRE. I was going off an average full time salary of ~$35,000/worker, but I think your approach of looking at GDP per worker instead of compensation per worker is probably closer to the truth. That'd put the economic impact of all those missing workers (and missing jobs for the missing workers to take) at north of $700B/year.
I doubt that the people who have exited the labor force are as productive as the average worker, so this might be an overestimate.
Exactly. No more than slicing a pizza into 6 extra slices would be as filling as the original 8 slices.

OurTown

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1117 on: December 06, 2017, 01:32:27 PM »
I always cut my pizza into 6 slices.  There is no way I could eat 8.

maizeman

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1118 on: December 06, 2017, 01:38:43 PM »
You may very well be right PathtoFIRE. I was going off an average full time salary of ~$35,000/worker, but I think your approach of looking at GDP per worker instead of compensation per worker is probably closer to the truth. That'd put the economic impact of all those missing workers (and missing jobs for the missing workers to take) at north of $700B/year.
I doubt that the people who have exited the labor force are as productive as the average worker, so this might be an overestimate.
Exactly. No more than slicing a pizza into 6 extra slices would be as filling as the original 8 slices.

The people who have left the workforce may well be less productive than the average worker, but I don't think it is plausible to argue that total GDP is completely insensitive to the number of people working (which is what the analogy of slicing the same pizza into different numbers of slices implies). Taken to its logical extreme, that would imply that if someone (say a major orange political figure) managed to revoke the citizenship of every other american, deport us all, US GDP would remain exactly the same, and US per capita GDP would be more than $17 trillion.

We may well reach a point in our lifetimes where automation and machine learning make that hypothetical scenario more plausible, but today it's pretty clear that more people working equals more total economic activity (although reasonable people can certainly disagree about how much additional economic activity).

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djadziadax

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1121 on: December 06, 2017, 07:13:44 PM »


The most important element of all is the one most seem oblivious to: the animal spirits. People are really sick of sitting around obsessing about what the Federal Reserve is going to do. They want to spend.



Tell me more about these animal spirits...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_spirits_(Keynes)

Priceless burn.

Undecided

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1122 on: December 06, 2017, 08:41:28 PM »


The most important element of all is the one most seem oblivious to: the animal spirits. People are really sick of sitting around obsessing about what the Federal Reserve is going to do. They want to spend.



Tell me more about these animal spirits...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_spirits_(Keynes)

Priceless burn.

Yes, posting a broken Wikipedia link as a response to a question is a truly powerful argument.

MDM

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1123 on: December 06, 2017, 09:40:56 PM »
Tell me more about these animal spirits...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_spirits_(Keynes)
Priceless burn.
Yes, posting a broken Wikipedia link as a response to a question is a truly powerful argument.
Gonna hafta plead Poe's law to the last two comments.

Presumably y'all were astute enough to determine the Simple Machines software ignored the closing ")" in the URL and followed the "Did you mean:" wikipedia link to Animal spirits (Keynes) - Wikipedia.  Or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_spirits_(Keynes) directly.

Mr Mark

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1124 on: December 07, 2017, 12:30:24 AM »
I think Keynes Animal Spirits would have been more interested in a real and sustained plan to boost to lower and middle class disposable income. Giving it to share buybacks and the 1% will just feed the investor class. U.S. corporations are already flush with cash and easy credit. What they really need are more customers.
Mr. Mark

Undecided

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1125 on: December 07, 2017, 07:48:18 AM »
Tell me more about these animal spirits...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_spirits_(Keynes)
Priceless burn.
Yes, posting a broken Wikipedia link as a response to a question is a truly powerful argument.
Gonna hafta plead Poe's law to the last two comments.

Presumably y'all were astute enough to determine the Simple Machines software ignored the closing ")" in the URL and followed the "Did you mean:" wikipedia link to Animal spirits (Keynes) - Wikipedia.  Or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_spirits_(Keynes) directly.

And Wise Virgin meant it the same way as P.G. Wodehouse.

djadziadax

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1126 on: December 07, 2017, 08:27:03 AM »
Tell me more about these animal spirits...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_spirits_(Keynes)
Priceless burn.
Yes, posting a broken Wikipedia link as a response to a question is a truly powerful argument.
Gonna hafta plead Poe's law to the last two comments.

Presumably y'all were astute enough to determine the Simple Machines software ignored the closing ")" in the URL and followed the "Did you mean:" wikipedia link to Animal spirits (Keynes) - Wikipedia.  Or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_spirits_(Keynes) directly.

And Wise Virgin meant it the same way as P.G. Wodehouse.

This is pretty great - learned about P.G. Wodehouse and Poe's Law...never heard of either and I am glad someone pointed them out. Interesting stuff.

djadziadax

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1127 on: December 07, 2017, 08:29:26 AM »
Tell me more about these animal spirits...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_spirits_(Keynes)
Priceless burn.
Yes, posting a broken Wikipedia link as a response to a question is a truly powerful argument.
Gonna hafta plead Poe's law to the last two comments.

Presumably y'all were astute enough to determine the Simple Machines software ignored the closing ")" in the URL and followed the "Did you mean:" wikipedia link to Animal spirits (Keynes) - Wikipedia.  Or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_spirits_(Keynes) directly.
Burn - as used in That 70's Show Just so funny!

DarkandStormy

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1128 on: December 07, 2017, 09:24:43 AM »
https://thinkprogress.org/paul-ryan-tax-cuts-medicare-medicaid-f87d810ad5b9/

Quote
Republicans in Congress are openly admitting they plan to use their tax reform bill to justify slashing funding for essential social programs like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and food stamps.

Quote
“We’re going to have to get back next year at entitlement reform, which is how you tackle the debt and the deficit,” Ryan said, adding that health care entitlements like Medicare and Medicaid are “the big drivers of our debt.”

Quote
Rep. Rod Blum (R-IA) claimed that to achieve the growth the tax plan forecasts, “we have to have welfare reform.” Rep. Clay Higgins (R-LA) said, “If we pass tax reform, we have to have welfare reform.” Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) directly admitted that the plan all along has been “to do two things,” because “the driver of our debt is the structure of Social Security and Medicare for future beneficiaries.”

Quote
Ryan suggested that the programs are “paying people not to work.” Higgins referred to Americans who “suffer on welfare.” Blum went so far as to say, “Sometimes we need to force people to go to work.”

Quote
. Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) claimed during debate on the tax bill last week that entitlements “help people who won’t help themselves, won’t lift a finger, and expect the federal government to do everything.” Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) defended repealing the estate tax — a move that almost exclusively benefits the wealthy — by bemoaning “those that are just spending every darn penny they have, whether it’s on booze or women or movies.”

Quote
Nearly 90 percent of working-age parents who receive food stamps are back to work within a year. But two thirds of the people who receive those benefits are children, people who have disabilities, or people too old to return to work.

The tax cut, which overwhelmingly benefits the top 1% over the next 10 years, is needed in order to cut social programs that the poorest Americans need.

Your modern day GOP.
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BigHaus89

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1129 on: December 07, 2017, 10:07:43 AM »
https://thinkprogress.org/paul-ryan-tax-cuts-medicare-medicaid-f87d810ad5b9/

Quote
Republicans in Congress are openly admitting they plan to use their tax reform bill to justify slashing funding for essential social programs like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and food stamps.

Quote
“We’re going to have to get back next year at entitlement reform, which is how you tackle the debt and the deficit,” Ryan said, adding that health care entitlements like Medicare and Medicaid are “the big drivers of our debt.”

Quote
Rep. Rod Blum (R-IA) claimed that to achieve the growth the tax plan forecasts, “we have to have welfare reform.” Rep. Clay Higgins (R-LA) said, “If we pass tax reform, we have to have welfare reform.” Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) directly admitted that the plan all along has been “to do two things,” because “the driver of our debt is the structure of Social Security and Medicare for future beneficiaries.”

Quote
Ryan suggested that the programs are “paying people not to work.” Higgins referred to Americans who “suffer on welfare.” Blum went so far as to say, “Sometimes we need to force people to go to work.”

Quote
. Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) claimed during debate on the tax bill last week that entitlements “help people who won’t help themselves, won’t lift a finger, and expect the federal government to do everything.” Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) defended repealing the estate tax — a move that almost exclusively benefits the wealthy — by bemoaning “those that are just spending every darn penny they have, whether it’s on booze or women or movies.”

Quote
Nearly 90 percent of working-age parents who receive food stamps are back to work within a year. But two thirds of the people who receive those benefits are children, people who have disabilities, or people too old to return to work.

The tax cut, which overwhelmingly benefits the top 1% over the next 10 years, is needed in order to cut social programs that the poorest Americans need.

Your modern day GOP.

What the fuck?

The GOP's wet dream is becoming a wet reality. Fuck over the voting base in order to benefit GOP donors - blame the hardships on them liberals!

Undecided

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1130 on: December 07, 2017, 10:11:32 AM »

Quote
Rep. Rod Blum (R-IA) claimed that to achieve the growth the tax plan forecasts, “we have to have welfare reform.” Rep. Clay Higgins (R-LA) said, “If we pass tax reform, we have to have welfare reform.” Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) directly admitted that the plan all along has been “to do two things,” because “the driver of our debt is the structure of Social Security and Medicare for future beneficiaries.”

I'm never quite sure what anyone means by "welfare," but given that the two programs to which Sen. Rubio referred are also the subject of stand-alone taxes and premiums, I don't understand his comment at all. While I understand that future expenditures under those programs may be legitimate concerns, the programs have all been at a surplus for years (and Social Security and Medicare Part A are at those surpluses entirely from the stand-alone tax collections), and they're expected to continue to run at surplus for the next few years, at least. So how are they the driver of our existing debt?

Paul der Krake

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1131 on: December 07, 2017, 10:16:40 AM »
Welfare and entitlements mean "government programs I don't like".

Food stamps, TANF, and Section 8, are welfare.
Mortgage deductions, subsidized gasoline, and the Pentagon, are necessary spending.

sol

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1132 on: December 07, 2017, 10:31:01 AM »
The GOP's wet dream is becoming a wet reality. Fuck over the voting base in order to benefit GOP donors - blame the hardships on them liberals!

Stolen jokes:

The Republican tax plan includes tax breaks for people who own private jets, and for golf course owners, and repeals the estate tax.  It also raises health insurance premiums by an extra 10% per year and will cause approximately 13 million fewer Americans to have health insurance.  So chin up, America!  If you die from not being able to afford health care, at least you can leave up to eleven million dollars to your kids!

It also includes tax breaks for wineries and private school tuition.  So if you happen to be using your private jet to fly from your golf course to your country estate winery while your kids are away at private school, this tax plan is going to be great for you!

"Imagine if a poor child only inherited eleven million dollars and had to pay taxes on it, why they could absolutely starve!"

As if this big middle finger to average Americans wasn't enough, they've also used their tax plan to strike a blow against reproductive rights.  The republican tax plan would give a tax ID number to unborn fetuses so they can hold 529 accounts, moving them one step closer to personhood than their lack of a central nervous system would indicate.

62% of the benefits in this bill go to the top 1%, an unimaginable transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich.  Republicans think this is appropriate because poor people are morally inferior and don't deserve tax breaks.  Chuck Grassley specifically disparaged Americans who don't own stock as morally inferior.  (that last one isn't a joke, it's just really fucking infuriating)

BigHaus89

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1133 on: December 07, 2017, 10:40:30 AM »

62% of the benefits in this bill go to the top 1%, an unimaginable transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich.  Republicans think this is appropriate because poor people are morally inferior and don't deserve tax breaks.  Chuck Grassley specifically disparaged Americans who don't own stock as morally inferior.  (that last one isn't a joke, it's just really fucking infuriating)

They really are gunning(pun intended) for a violent revolution of the masses(the poor). U.S. drone strikes on U.S. soil? Sign an executive order to protect "True Americans."

The future of America sure is Great!

PopMegaphone

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1134 on: December 07, 2017, 11:33:15 AM »
A post from Robert Reich yesterday:

Quote
Make no mistake. The oligarchs (Koch brothers, Mercers, Wilks, Waltons, Deasons, Schwabs, Neugebauers, Murdochs, Griffins, Ricketts, etc.) are now in charge of the U.S. government. The views of most Americans (75 percent of whom are against the tax cut, for example) no longer matter.

This was the oligarch’s deal with the devil (Trump) from the start: Get us a huge tax cut, use the resulting deficit to justify cutting Medicare and Social Security, and get rid of environmental and financial regulations. In return, we’ll finance you, we’ll back your allies in the GOP, and we’ll mount PR campaigns on your behalf that magnify your lies. Hell, we’ll even make you look like a populist.

Over half the money contributed in the 2016 came from just 158 families, along with the companies they own or control. More than 50 of these people are on the Forbes list of America’s richest billionaires. 64 of them made their fortunes in finance (hedge fund and private equity). 17 in energy, mostly oil and gas. 15 in real estate and construction (the Trumps, for example). 10 in technology.

These American oligarchs don’t have to worry about whether Social Security or Medicare will be there for them in their retirement because they’ve put away huge fortunes. They don’t worry about climate change because they don’t live in homes that might succumb to hurricanes or wildfires. They don't care about public schools because their families don't attend them. They don't care about public transportation because they don't use it. Truth to tell, they don't even care that much about America, because their personal and financial interests are global.

They are living in their own separate society, and they want people who will represent them, not the rest of us.

The Republican Party is their vehicle. Fox News is their voice. Trump is their champion.

neverrun

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1135 on: December 07, 2017, 03:31:55 PM »

gerardc

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1136 on: December 07, 2017, 09:55:48 PM »
62% of the benefits in this bill go to the top 1%, an unimaginable transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich.
You keep repeating the same tired arguments. In a tax bill, you can't look at the delta in isolation to determine if it's fair or not, you need to look at the final state.
E.g.: someone earning $20k/year pays $1k in taxes; someone earning $10M pays $3.5M. After the bill, they might pay $3.4M instead. Quit crying that the "delta" of the bill is unfair. You need to look at the big picture. Many people think that $3.4M is more than fair enough in this case. Taxing the rich more is not always the solution. What's the evidence we have that we're currently undertaxing the rich? Those questions are not that simple.

Republicans think this is appropriate because poor people are morally inferior and don't deserve tax breaks.
That's just your (angry) opinion. Why don't you assume good faith? Why couldn't the reason be that they really believe the whole economy works better that way?

Abe

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1137 on: December 07, 2017, 10:01:14 PM »
62% of the benefits in this bill go to the top 1%, an unimaginable transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich.
You keep repeating the same tired arguments. In a tax bill, you can't look at the delta in isolation to determine if it's fair or not, you need to look at the final state.
E.g.: someone earning $20k/year pays $1k in taxes; someone earning $10M pays $3.5M. After the bill, they might pay $3.4M instead. Quit crying that the "delta" of the bill is unfair. You need to look at the big picture. Many people think that $3.4M is more than fair enough in this case. Taxing the rich more is not always the solution. What's the evidence we have that we're currently undertaxing the rich? Those questions are not that simple.

Republicans think this is appropriate because poor people are morally inferior and don't deserve tax breaks.
That's just your (angry) opinion. Why don't you assume good faith? Why couldn't the reason be that they really believe the whole economy works better that way?

Agree with your first point, though I think the main counter-argument is that the rich disproportionately get long-term capital gain income that is taxed at a lower rate for unclear reasons. I don't understand why my marginal wage tax rate should be in the mid to upper 30% range while my long-term gain rate is half. Hence Warren Buffett's famous statement that his cumulative tax rate is less than his secretary's.

Second point - I can't ascribe motives to the Republicans other than I'm sure it's self-serving to some extent, given human nature. They may believe the economy works better that way, but most economists on the entire spectrum of thought agree that it won't (at least not enough to balance out the major debt increase). Good faith without being informed by experts isn't what we pay Congress for, they are supposed to make decisions based on all available information and expert opinion.

« Last Edit: December 07, 2017, 10:03:01 PM by Abe »

Glenstache

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1138 on: December 07, 2017, 10:20:50 PM »
62% of the benefits in this bill go to the top 1%, an unimaginable transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich.
You keep repeating the same tired arguments. In a tax bill, you can't look at the delta in isolation to determine if it's fair or not, you need to look at the final state.
E.g.: someone earning $20k/year pays $1k in taxes; someone earning $10M pays $3.5M. After the bill, they might pay $3.4M instead. Quit crying that the "delta" of the bill is unfair. You need to look at the big picture. Many people think that $3.4M is more than fair enough in this case. Taxing the rich more is not always the solution. What's the evidence we have that we're currently undertaxing the rich? Those questions are not that simple.

Republicans think this is appropriate because poor people are morally inferior and don't deserve tax breaks.
That's just your (angry) opinion. Why don't you assume good faith? Why couldn't the reason be that they really believe the whole economy works better that way?

Agree with your first point, though I think the main counter-argument is that the rich disproportionately get long-term capital gain income that is taxed at a lower rate for unclear reasons. I don't understand why my marginal wage tax rate should be in the mid to upper 30% range while my long-term gain rate is half. Hence Warren Buffett's famous statement that his cumulative tax rate is less than his secretary's.

Second point - I can't ascribe motives to the Republicans other than I'm sure it's self-serving to some extent, given human nature. They may believe the economy works better that way, but most economists on the entire spectrum of thought agree that it won't (at least not enough to balance out the major debt increase). Good faith without being informed by experts isn't what we pay Congress for, they are supposed to make decisions based on all available information and expert opinion.
I think the closed door process that purposefully avoided time for discussion of analysis by independent or even GOP sources us anathema to working in good faith. The bills were crammed through before people woukd really kniw what was in there.

Undecided

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1139 on: December 07, 2017, 10:28:46 PM »
Republicans think this is appropriate because poor people are morally inferior and don't deserve tax breaks.
That's just your (angry) opinion. Why don't you assume good faith? Why couldn't the reason be that they really believe the whole economy works better that way?

DarkandStormy provided a few quotes earlier, including these:

Quote
Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) claimed during debate on the tax bill last week that entitlements “help people who won’t help themselves, won’t lift a finger, and expect the federal government to do everything.”

Quote
Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) defended repealing the estate tax — a move that almost exclusively benefits the wealthy — by bemoaning “those that are just spending every darn penny they have, whether it’s on booze or women or movies.”

While I think your first point was reasonable, if this is how two top Republican Senators are willing to go on record, I think Sol’s on to something, too.

accolay

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1140 on: December 07, 2017, 10:40:56 PM »
That's just your (angry) opinion. Why don't you assume good faith? Why couldn't the reason be that they really believe the whole economy works better that way?

Assume good faith? Fool me once...

I guess the reason could be that they believe the economy works better like this....but I'm not sure how many more Republican economic experiments the US can survive.

Bateaux

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1141 on: December 08, 2017, 01:22:35 AM »
It took one hell of a lot of poor and working class voters to create this political nightmare.   The rich simply don't have the numbers themselves to get elected.   With the pending election of Roy Moore to the Senate, I'm pretty much done.  Fuck the poor and working middle class.   They brought it on themselves.
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accolay

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1142 on: December 08, 2017, 02:04:54 AM »
Fuck the poor and working middle class.   They brought it on themselves.

I get it, but I'm not there yet.

sokoloff

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1143 on: December 08, 2017, 03:22:24 AM »
I think the main counter-argument is that the rich disproportionately get long-term capital gain income that is taxed at a lower rate for unclear reasons. I don't understand why my marginal wage tax rate should be in the mid to upper 30% range while my long-term gain rate is half.
I see two main reasons for long-term capital gains to be taxed at a lower marginal rate than short-term capital gains. (Then, I leave open the question of whether short-term capital gains should be taxed the same as labor or differently, but with total marginal rates on short term capital gains already over 50% for many investors, it's hard to argue that short-term capital gains should be taxed even more heavily.)

First, capital gains are a tax on nominal gains, not real gains. Over a short time frame, the effects of inflation (at least in the US) are low and so can reasonably be ignored. Over a long time frame, the effects of inflation are significant and the reduction in rate for long-term capital gains can be viewed as an imperfect nod to taxing that part that represents the real economic gain. (The housing total exclusion on some amount of gain on qualifying sales can be viewed as an economically sound exclusion for the same reason, IMO.)

The second relates to incenting behavior directly. Many businesses need long-term, committed capital to get off the ground, for inventory or other working capital needs, and/or for expansion. Businesses have uncertain returns for investors as well. Combining these factors, lowering the rates on LTCG serves as a financial incentive to invest for a longer horizon (and in these riskier ventures) than an investor might otherwise be inclined to do. Ceteris paribus, this has a positive effect on business formation, business expansion, and job creation.

AdrianC

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1144 on: December 08, 2017, 07:15:54 AM »
Fuck the poor and working middle class.   They brought it on themselves.

I get it, but I'm not there yet.

I get it too. People I know, even people dependent on Obamacare, either voted for this shit or didn't bother to vote at all. I'm starting to lose a little sympathy.

Peter Parker

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1145 on: December 08, 2017, 07:42:42 AM »
Fuck the poor and working middle class.   They brought it on themselves.

I get it, but I'm not there yet.

I get it too. People I know, even people dependent on Obamacare, either voted for this shit or didn't bother to vote at all. I'm starting to lose a little sympathy.

I would like to get there, but can't.

Wife and I earn enough that we will likely benefit from this plan. But for me that is not enough reason to say "hey it's great!"  It is definitely not great for my kids and those I care about that are less fortunate than me.

It is so frustrating to see many neighbors, friends, family support these idiots who constantly want to take money them and reduce many of the benefits they rely on....Then I hear about how "congress" wants to take away their Social Security.  Who do they think "congress" is???  It's the dolts they voted for.  I want to shake them and scream "pay attention people!" 


farmecologist

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1146 on: December 08, 2017, 07:56:08 AM »
Fuck the poor and working middle class.   They brought it on themselves.

I get it, but I'm not there yet.

I get it too. People I know, even people dependent on Obamacare, either voted for this shit or didn't bother to vote at all. I'm starting to lose a little sympathy.

I would like to get there, but can't.

Wife and I earn enough that we will likely benefit from this plan. But for me that is not enough reason to say "hey it's great!"  It is definitely not great for my kids and those I care about that are less fortunate than me.

It is so frustrating to see many neighbors, friends, family support these idiots who constantly want to take money them and reduce many of the benefits they rely on....Then I hear about how "congress" wants to take away their Social Security.  Who do they think "congress" is???  It's the dolts they voted for.  I want to shake them and scream "pay attention people!"


I have no sympathy for people who don't vote.  Especially the Bernie supporters who were 'perfectly comfortable' with their non-vote.  I saw many pre-election interviews with these people and I couldn't believe it.   I really hope they learned their lesson...but I fear not.

Frankly, you have to be a realist in this day and age...NOT an idealist.





180_FromEvil

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1147 on: December 08, 2017, 10:04:11 AM »

AdrianC

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1148 on: December 08, 2017, 01:25:48 PM »
we could all save a ton on taxes if we own LLCs:


It's very easy to set up an LLC. I've got one.

OurTown

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Re: Republican Tax Plan 2017
« Reply #1149 on: December 08, 2017, 02:06:15 PM »
Law firm associates, LLC. Under the Senate bill, there is potentially a major problem as drafted: Employees may be able to benefit from the pass-through provision by forming a pass-through of which they are an owner. To achieve the tax savings, no longer be an employee (who cannot benefit from the provision); instead be an owner (who can benefit from the provision). For example, law firm associates (and other employees of the firm) should no longer be mere associates. They should instead be partners in Associates, LLC—a separate partnership paid to provide services to the original firm. Their “profit share”—in lieu of salary—from Associates, LLC would then be given the special low pass-through rate. There are restrictions on lawyers—since they provide a personal service, which is disfavored in the bill—from benefiting from the special pass-through rate, but those restrictions would not apply to these associates. So long as the associate (or really partner in Associates, LLC) makes less than $500,000 in taxable income (for a married couple) or $250,000 (for a single individual), they would be fully eligible. And that covers a lot of law firm associates, not to mention many other people who are now employees—but who may not be for long.