Does this imply that those of us who did the bulk of our accumulation during the last bull market have more to worry about?
Everything is a blend, right? If you go for 4% based on your last day of working, which happens to coincide with the Top, and you are invested in such a way that you don't hold bonds or anything other than (I assume) US stocks, AND the US market goes into decline for 5-6 years...
That's pretty unlikely. I am thinking I'll be using the variable withdrawal system, so that in bad stock years I'll reduce drawdown.
The stats, I guess, say "probably not" (having more to worry about) *statistically* - you're not likely to run out of money over the 30 year span. But, *emotionally* you retire - you pull the plug - when you have JUST hit 4% SWR and are LEAN FIRE? Your portfolio drops ~30%? I'd worry.
(Edit: Alas, I am a worrier, so I'll probably worry no matter what. In fact, I'm worrying already because the market seems to only be going up up up which is scary when you look at the CAPE ratios.... eh... etc. Problem is, TINA - what else are you going to invest in?)