Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?

[GreenSheep]

I also think that tourism to US will be really limited from a risk point.

Just curious, what risk are you referring to? As one who lives here, maybe it's equivalent to that saying about how fish don't notice the water because they live in it? The only thing I can think of is that I've heard some people outside the US mention that they're concerned about the cost of healthcare here, but wouldn't travel health insurance cover that?

The health care cost is dealt with insurance but before the Coronavirus has dissappeared totally you have a large portion of population that has no health insurance or really high cost of health insurance that will deterr people from seeking help, has no sickdays and maybe no financial means to stay home if they are sick. I would also guess that if the virus continues to spread as it is doing now the travel ban to US will not be lifted in a while.

I see. I was thinking post-COVID, since that's in the title of the thread.

[Fru-Gal]

I like the prediction above that young people will want to become health workers after this.

Interesting that I am seeing 2 predictions in various media that I think are wrong:

1, "life will never go back to what it was" (of course it will, it always does, in the main)

2, depression and suicide will increase. I predict the opposite, because a universal crisis is a focusing moment like no other. Of course not every severely mentally ill person will be improved, but many who were suffering mental illness due to affluenza (and whether we realize it or not, we are all suffering from this in one degree or another be it WRT food, entertainment, stuff or money), loneliness, lack of purpose, addiction, societal violence/trauma, school shootings, will be.

I have seen academic evidence from somewhere talking about economic depression and health saying that health improved during the Great Depression.

Is there any more specific evidence around mental health, does anyone know (beyond what could be extrapolated from general health improvement)?

FYI I am not gleefully embracing this crisis. It's scary and no end in sight. Just trying to find the silver linings.

[Plina]

I also think that tourism to US will be really limited from a risk point.

Just curious, what risk are you referring to? As one who lives here, maybe it's equivalent to that saying about how fish don't notice the water because they live in it? The only thing I can think of is that I've heard some people outside the US mention that they're concerned about the cost of healthcare here, but wouldn't travel health insurance cover that?

The health care cost is dealt with insurance but before the Coronavirus has dissappeared totally you have a large portion of population that has no health insurance or really high cost of health insurance that will deterr people from seeking help, has no sickdays and maybe no financial means to stay home if they are sick. I would also guess that if the virus continues to spread as it is doing now the travel ban to US will not be lifted in a while.

I see. I was thinking post-COVID, since that's in the title of the thread.

That is a good point. At least here in Sweden, they tell it will be a long time before we are post-covid and the virus will be flashing up from time to time even when the worst crisis is over. So my response was written with that in mind.

[mm1970]

I eat our rarely, but I could see smart restaurant owners converting to a scaled down delivery/takeout model exclusively. Not just for big city centers but also for suburban communities. Just think, you could convert a strip mall into a string of 10 small take-out/delivery options. You could have a delivery company that handles delivery for all the restaurants and when things get back to normal you could include a decent patio for those who would like to set and eat. Kind of like a mall food court that is outside and offers delivery. Now if only if I had the capital and know how. Oh well. I'm sure I'm not the first with that idea.

I read an article about restaurants branching out and selling meal kits and even just straight up groceries.  They can still get things from their suppliers, and they are reselling them.  Sometimes it is a 25 pound bag of flour, but sometimes it is an individual can of beans.  (Now, whether those beans and that flour are labeled for legal individual sale, I don't know.)  At a time when many stores are sold out of basics, it's a way to get more of them to people, and for these small businesses to get some revenue.

There's a taco shop near us selling home taco kits (and including a roll of toilet paper with each one).

Several of ours are doing this.  One Mexican place selling family meal kits, but also 1-25 lb bags of rice, beans. Tortillas, tomatoes, eggs, avocados.

The BBQ place is also selling eggs, rice, beans, meat, etc.

[MilesTeg]

I eat our rarely, but I could see smart restaurant owners converting to a scaled down delivery/takeout model exclusively. Not just for big city centers but also for suburban communities. Just think, you could convert a strip mall into a string of 10 small take-out/delivery options. You could have a delivery company that handles delivery for all the restaurants and when things get back to normal you could include a decent patio for those who would like to set and eat. Kind of like a mall food court that is outside and offers delivery. Now if only if I had the capital and know how. Oh well. I'm sure I'm not the first with that idea.

I read an article about restaurants branching out and selling meal kits and even just straight up groceries.  They can still get things from their suppliers, and they are reselling them.  Sometimes it is a 25 pound bag of flour, but sometimes it is an individual can of beans.  (Now, whether those beans and that flour are labeled for legal individual sale, I don't know.)  At a time when many stores are sold out of basics, it's a way to get more of them to people, and for these small businesses to get some revenue.

There's a taco shop near us selling home taco kits (and including a roll of toilet paper with each one).

Hah, sorry but the TP with the taco kit is.. hilarious. Taco Bell needs to take note for the future.

[Steeze]

I could see some trends occurring, even if only for a couple years.

• Retail investors stop investing, save cash instead
• working from home becomes mainstream
• Office building demand drops
• % of population renting increases, new wave of foreclosures
• Many mom & pop real estate investors are squeezed out of the market
• People want to move to suburbs, out of city center
• People want to drive instead of use public transit
• Delivery culture becomes mainstream
• Travel via cruise ships never returns to normal
• Wearing a mask becomes acceptable
• People increase their stockpile of basic necessities permanently
• Manufacturing & supply chains de-globalize
• Prices on products & food stay elevated
• workforce participation % permanently declines
• Many more brick and mortar businesses permanently close

[Cassie]

We love cruises and go once or twice a year. Don’t know if I will ever get on one again.

[deborah]

It’s estimated here that 70% of work cannot be WFH. The MMM forum tends to include more of the 30%, so we tend to think that a WFH blitz is feasible.

[Metalcat]

It’s estimated here that 70% of work cannot be WFH. The MMM forum tends to include more of the 30%, so we tend to think that a WFH blitz is feasible.

30% is an enormous amount of work that could be done from home, that is not at all a small number.

[Jouer]

I agree with others that work from home options will likely increase. Sometimes companies need to see for themselves how well it can work. An office fire 6-7 years ago started my work from home life. Our company found we worked quite well from home while the office was being cleaned/rebuilt so offered us the option to work from the office or from home.

Question: those who think work from home will reduce the number of employees. I don't see the correlation - mind explaining it to me?

[Jouer]

I think there will be some changes but I don't think skipping sporting events, concerts, cruises will be part of that.

Why? We had to close parks and beaches with gates and cops to keep people from congregating. We've had to threaten large fines and even jail time to get some affected people to stay the fuck home out of it. Based on that, I think people will go right back to their old ways as soon as it is socially acceptable to do so.

[Cranky]

My dh is WFH and not enjoying it one bit. He says everything takes a million times longer. He’s pretty crabby about the whole thing.

[MonkeyJenga]

My dh is WFH and not enjoying it one bit. He says everything takes a million times longer. He’s pretty crabby about the whole thing.

I'm semi-FIRE now so I'm not working at all, but I've also hated my periods of full-time WFH. No physical separation to make me stop working ever, lack of social interaction, less motivation to exercise since I lost easy access to my work gym, close proximity to the fridge...

[pachnik]

We love cruises and go once or twice a year. Don’t know if I will ever get on one again.

We've gone on two cruises and really liked them.  I won't be getting on one any time soon. 

[ixtap]

My dh is WFH and not enjoying it one bit. He says everything takes a million times longer. He’s pretty crabby about the whole thing.

Mine has been WFH for 3 weeks and is still figuring out his ergo set up.

[totoro]

I know what has changed for me:

1. No longer as interested in international travel.  Permanent change in my view.  Lots of beautiful things to see locally and sanitation and environmental control and management are way more important to me.
2. Even more interested in permaculture and gardening.
3. I have permanently lost some faith in the ability of a significant proportion of our population to exercise critical thought and embrace logical steps for survival.  I have realized that a lot of people don't know how to research and make good decisions - or have no inclination to do so and just follow whatever someone in charge says.  No, seriously.  The whole face mask thing.  WTF?  I spent a lot of time raising awareness about this in my local community, had all the research and contacted the right people. Only now is there a start to community change on this topic because the CDC has indicated they may recommend cloth masks.  I still get angry push-back from people who are convinced that face masks are dangerous for the general public to wear because they'll infect themselves.  And the information is readily available for anyone to review on the internet.  I've now stopped advocating because I think we've reached a critical mass of awareness, but man was a lot of that a thankless waste of time beyond my immediate family and friends and perhaps some of those in leadership.
4. Leading directly from point 3, I am more interested in developing greater self-sufficiency and connection within a small circle of family and friends.   Not a crazy prepper type thing, but a circle of people who make sense.  I will probably not advocate for anything again except to higher levels of government or through the legal system.

[Steeze]

I know what has changed for me:

1. No longer as interested in international travel.  Permanent change in my view.  Lots of beautiful things to see locally and sanitation and environmental control and management are way more important to me.
2. Even more interested in permaculture and gardening.
3. I have permanently lost some faith in the ability of a significant proportion of our population to exercise critical thought and embrace logical steps for survival.  I have realized that a lot of people don't know how to research and make good decisions - or have no inclination to do so and just follow whatever someone in charge says.  No, seriously.  The whole face mask thing.  WTF?  I spent a lot of time raising awareness about this in my local community, had all the research and contacted the right people. Only now is there a start to community change on this topic because the CDC has indicated they may recommend cloth masks.  I still get angry push-back from people who are convinced that face masks are dangerous for the general public to wear because they'll infect themselves.  And the information is readily available for anyone to review on the internet.  I've now stopped advocating because I think we've reached a critical mass of awareness, but man was a lot of that a thankless waste of time beyond my immediate family and friends and perhaps some of those in leadership.
4. Leading directly from point 3, I am more interested in developing greater self-sufficiency and connection within a small circle of family and friends.   Not a crazy prepper type thing, but a circle of people who make sense.  I will probably not advocate for anything again except to higher levels of government or through the legal system.

#3 reminds me of my father - He actually is on the fence on whether this entire thing is a liberal conspiracy to take away personal freedoms. I get the feeling that he thinks that this is all a media hoax and that the hospitals are not actually overrun. He even pointed me to a video on YouTube where a guy was visiting NYC hospitals that had empty waiting rooms, and no lines out front to get tested like they show on the news.

[YttriumNitrate]

I think there will be some changes but I don't think skipping sporting events, concerts, cruises will be part of that.
Why? We had to close parks and beaches with gates and cops to keep people from congregating. We've had to threaten large fines and even jail time to get some affected people to stay the fuck home out of it. Based on that, I think people will go right back to their old ways as soon as it is socially acceptable to do so.

I could see sporting events, concerts, and cruises having a boom once this is all over. A pandemic is really good at reminding people that they should live for today for tomorrow they may die. So far during the lock-down, my 70 year old parents have already planned at least two trips for once things return to normal.

[mancityfan]

I have permanently lost some faith in the ability of a significant proportion of our population to exercise critical thought and embrace logical steps for survival.  I have realized that a lot of people don't know how to research and make good decisions

I think this is related to your point :-) In February I did the Rim to Rim hike in the Grand Canyon with my daughter. I trained, with a pack. For months. I did it and had a great time. I am - shall we say - older. I saw people coming down the Canyon in t shirts and sneakers on ice for the first 1/2 mile. It is only a 4000ft drop off the edge if you slip, or slide into someone else. I tried to warn people as we were hiking up, but after a while. I just had to give up. It was nuts. People were asking me if there was a restaurant to eat half way down the Grand Canyon! I have also lost faith!

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

I think mainstream media will change forever. I mean, it's already been going in that direction but this has hurried it up. The major outlets of news, like Trump's press conferences and WHO announcements, only release information that people online have been talking about for the last week. They're woefully behind. I think most sensible people will find the information they need online and go with that, instead of waiting for pronouncements from the powers that be. It's taken Trump how long to suggest wearing facemasks? It took WHO how long to say pandemic??

[hops]

2, depression and suicide will increase. I predict the opposite, because a universal crisis is a focusing moment like no other. Of course not every severely mentally ill person will be improved, but many who were suffering mental illness due to affluenza (and whether we realize it or not, we are all suffering from this in one degree or another be it WRT food, entertainment, stuff or money), loneliness, lack of purpose, addiction, societal violence/trauma, school shootings, will be.

I think there will unfortunately be many suicides of healthcare workers relating to this. Some remembrances have already been shared on some of my wife's closed physicians groups.

[Kyle Schuant]

2, depression and suicide will increase. I predict the opposite, because a universal crisis is a focusing moment like no other.

When you're broke, hungry, and essentially locked inside your home, it's kind of hard to be thinking about how it's all for the public good.

[runbikerun]

I'm going to try to state this in as neutral a way as possible:

If Trump is reelected, or comes quite close, then there will be substantial changes to both world politics and to corporate structures.

The news from 3M that the Trump administration had tried to stop them from exporting masks to Canada, and the reports about shipments to other countries being redirected to the States and Trump's efforts to gain sole access to a vaccine, will probably spur other countries to plan for a different future in which their economies and supply chains are separated as much as possible from the US. There is at this point little benefit to being allied to the US as long as Trump remains in charge.

For similar reasons, a lot of global corporations will either seriously consider splitting themselves up or else shifting their headquarters elsewhere to avoid being caught between two competing countries. If an American company's factory in Germany, for example, can be ordered to export all essential supplies to the US, then forced nationalisation of the facility by Germany becomes a real risk. Shift HQ to Dublin, though, and the company is now an EU firm with American operations.

[Hula Hoop]

2, depression and suicide will increase. I predict the opposite, because a universal crisis is a focusing moment like no other.

When you're broke, hungry, and essentially locked inside your home, it's kind of hard to be thinking about how it's all for the public good.

Yes exactly.  I'm lucky that I've been able to work from home since we were locked down on March 9 but my husband lost his job and many people we know both lost their jobs. Our town here in Italy heavily relies on tourism.  There are several of my kids' classmates who are in danger of not being able to afford food at this point in the lock down.  Luckily, evictions have been halted.  Our kids' school is organizing a fund-raiser for families in need at the school. 

Obviously, the situation here in Italy is critical and no one I know is questioning the PM's decision to lock us down.  But as we get to nearly a month of lock down (all industry apart from critical industries have also been closed down) it's beginning to get difficult to feed everyone.

[scottish]

I'm going to try to state this in as neutral a way as possible:

If Trump is reelected, or comes quite close, then there will be substantial changes to both world politics and to corporate structures.

The news from 3M that the Trump administration had tried to stop them from exporting masks to Canada, and the reports about shipments to other countries being redirected to the States and Trump's efforts to gain sole access to a vaccine, will probably spur other countries to plan for a different future in which their economies and supply chains are separated as much as possible from the US. There is at this point little benefit to being allied to the US as long as Trump remains in charge.

For similar reasons, a lot of global corporations will either seriously consider splitting themselves up or else shifting their headquarters elsewhere to avoid being caught between two competing countries. If an American company's factory in Germany, for example, can be ordered to export all essential supplies to the US, then forced nationalisation of the facility by Germany becomes a real risk. Shift HQ to Dublin, though, and the company is now an EU firm with American operations.

This pisses me off.   How could we be so sloppy as to rely on foreign sources for things like N95 masks?     

We had a huge stockpile (55M) of masks from the sars outbreak 15 years ago and nobody was managing them.  (Most of them have expired)

I wonder if they're really useless now.

[marble_faun]

It's not just other countries.  The federal government has also seized medical supplies ordered by states like Massachusetts.  It can now redistribute the supplies as it pleases.

Gonna be honest, I'm embarrassed for our country and the utter incompetence of our government.  There has been no real leadership through this crisis.  Just misinformation and power-plays as millions lose their jobs and the bodies pile up.

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

I'm going to try to state this in as neutral a way as possible:

If Trump is reelected, or comes quite close, then there will be substantial changes to both world politics and to corporate structures.

The news from 3M that the Trump administration had tried to stop them from exporting masks to Canada, and the reports about shipments to other countries being redirected to the States and Trump's efforts to gain sole access to a vaccine, will probably spur other countries to plan for a different future in which their economies and supply chains are separated as much as possible from the US. There is at this point little benefit to being allied to the US as long as Trump remains in charge.

For similar reasons, a lot of global corporations will either seriously consider splitting themselves up or else shifting their headquarters elsewhere to avoid being caught between two competing countries. If an American company's factory in Germany, for example, can be ordered to export all essential supplies to the US, then forced nationalisation of the facility by Germany becomes a real risk. Shift HQ to Dublin, though, and the company is now an EU firm with American operations.

I think America has burned a of bridges over the last few years. I think that even your administration might be unaware of just how many, because other countries are still using a little thing called diplomacy. It's kind of like bad service in a restaurant - you might not complain, but you won't go back and you'll tell your friends. Whether Trump gets in or not, the USA might find far fewer countries willing to get involved in whatever the USA is wanting to do. If Trump does get in, that effect will be ten fold. This thing with Canada and the masks? Trudeau isn't a complete arse, so he won't be retaliating...... but I bet he won't be backing the USA for much in the future.

[LWYRUP]

I'm going to try to state this in as neutral a way as possible:

If Trump is reelected, or comes quite close, then there will be substantial changes to both world politics and to corporate structures.

The news from 3M that the Trump administration had tried to stop them from exporting masks to Canada, and the reports about shipments to other countries being redirected to the States and Trump's efforts to gain sole access to a vaccine, will probably spur other countries to plan for a different future in which their economies and supply chains are separated as much as possible from the US. There is at this point little benefit to being allied to the US as long as Trump remains in charge.

For similar reasons, a lot of global corporations will either seriously consider splitting themselves up or else shifting their headquarters elsewhere to avoid being caught between two competing countries. If an American company's factory in Germany, for example, can be ordered to export all essential supplies to the US, then forced nationalisation of the facility by Germany becomes a real risk. Shift HQ to Dublin, though, and the company is now an EU firm with American operations.

I think America has burned a of bridges over the last few years. I think that even your administration might be unaware of just how many, because other countries are still using a little thing called diplomacy. It's kind of like bad service in a restaurant - you might not complain, but you won't go back and you'll tell your friends. Whether Trump gets in or not, the USA might find far fewer countries willing to get involved in whatever the USA is wanting to do. If Trump does get in, that effect will be ten fold. This thing with Canada and the masks? Trudeau isn't a complete arse, so he won't be retaliating...... but I bet he won't be backing the USA for much in the future.

Except that all these other countries have done the exact same thing:

France seizes masks:  https://www.dailysabah.com/world/europe/france-seizes-millions-of-masks-gloves-intended-for-spain-and-italy

Germany seizes  masks:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-09/germany-faces-backlash-from-neighbors-over-mask-export-ban

Germany bans export of medical supplies:  https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-germany-exports/germany-bans-export-of-medical-protection-gear-due-to-coronavirus-idUSL8N2AX3D9

Germany, again, seizing medical supplies going to Switzerland:  https://www.rt.com/news/483582-germany--switzerland-medical-supplies-coronavirus/

India reducing pharma exports:  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-india-drugs/europe-panicking-over-indias-pharmaceutical-export-curbs-industry-group-idUSKBN20R1MD

China nationalizing 3M factory:  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/business/masks-china-coronavirus.html

I could go on.  I found all of these with like three minutes of google searching, with slightly more effort there are hundreds of such articles 

It's amazing how 50 people will do something and Trump is one of them and then all of a sudden it's like everyone suddenly comes down with selective short term memory loss.

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

I'm going to try to state this in as neutral a way as possible:

If Trump is reelected, or comes quite close, then there will be substantial changes to both world politics and to corporate structures.

The news from 3M that the Trump administration had tried to stop them from exporting masks to Canada, and the reports about shipments to other countries being redirected to the States and Trump's efforts to gain sole access to a vaccine, will probably spur other countries to plan for a different future in which their economies and supply chains are separated as much as possible from the US. There is at this point little benefit to being allied to the US as long as Trump remains in charge.

For similar reasons, a lot of global corporations will either seriously consider splitting themselves up or else shifting their headquarters elsewhere to avoid being caught between two competing countries. If an American company's factory in Germany, for example, can be ordered to export all essential supplies to the US, then forced nationalisation of the facility by Germany becomes a real risk. Shift HQ to Dublin, though, and the company is now an EU firm with American operations.

I think America has burned a of bridges over the last few years. I think that even your administration might be unaware of just how many, because other countries are still using a little thing called diplomacy. It's kind of like bad service in a restaurant - you might not complain, but you won't go back and you'll tell your friends. Whether Trump gets in or not, the USA might find far fewer countries willing to get involved in whatever the USA is wanting to do. If Trump does get in, that effect will be ten fold. This thing with Canada and the masks? Trudeau isn't a complete arse, so he won't be retaliating...... but I bet he won't be backing the USA for much in the future.

Except that all these other countries have done the exact same thing:

France seizes masks:  https://www.dailysabah.com/world/europe/france-seizes-millions-of-masks-gloves-intended-for-spain-and-italy

Germany seizes  masks:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-09/germany-faces-backlash-from-neighbors-over-mask-export-ban

Germany bans export of medical supplies:  https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-germany-exports/germany-bans-export-of-medical-protection-gear-due-to-coronavirus-idUSL8N2AX3D9

Germany, again, seizing medical supplies going to Switzerland:  https://www.rt.com/news/483582-germany--switzerland-medical-supplies-coronavirus/

India reducing pharma exports:  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-india-drugs/europe-panicking-over-indias-pharmaceutical-export-curbs-industry-group-idUSKBN20R1MD

China nationalizing 3M factory:  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/business/masks-china-coronavirus.html

I could go on.  I found all of these with like three minutes of google searching, with slightly more effort there are hundreds of such articles 

It's amazing how 50 people will do something and Trump is one of them and then all of a sudden it's like everyone suddenly comes down with selective short term memory loss.

Have you read those articles? I followed the articles about Germany back to their sources and it seems the shipments were illegal. That's why they were seized. No one is suggesting that countries don't have the right to limit exports of items they need domestically. That's different from taking goods that had been paid for by another country while they were being moved from one plane to another in a third country.

You don't have to worry about what's true and what isn't. It will all come out in the years and years of analysis after this pandemic. Courses will be taught in universities about how it was handled. I personally don't think the USA will come out looking too neighbourly, but that's just my opinion.

[LWYRUP]

I'm going to try to state this in as neutral a way as possible:

If Trump is reelected, or comes quite close, then there will be substantial changes to both world politics and to corporate structures.

The news from 3M that the Trump administration had tried to stop them from exporting masks to Canada, and the reports about shipments to other countries being redirected to the States and Trump's efforts to gain sole access to a vaccine, will probably spur other countries to plan for a different future in which their economies and supply chains are separated as much as possible from the US. There is at this point little benefit to being allied to the US as long as Trump remains in charge.

For similar reasons, a lot of global corporations will either seriously consider splitting themselves up or else shifting their headquarters elsewhere to avoid being caught between two competing countries. If an American company's factory in Germany, for example, can be ordered to export all essential supplies to the US, then forced nationalisation of the facility by Germany becomes a real risk. Shift HQ to Dublin, though, and the company is now an EU firm with American operations.

I think America has burned a of bridges over the last few years. I think that even your administration might be unaware of just how many, because other countries are still using a little thing called diplomacy. It's kind of like bad service in a restaurant - you might not complain, but you won't go back and you'll tell your friends. Whether Trump gets in or not, the USA might find far fewer countries willing to get involved in whatever the USA is wanting to do. If Trump does get in, that effect will be ten fold. This thing with Canada and the masks? Trudeau isn't a complete arse, so he won't be retaliating...... but I bet he won't be backing the USA for much in the future.

Except that all these other countries have done the exact same thing:

France seizes masks:  https://www.dailysabah.com/world/europe/france-seizes-millions-of-masks-gloves-intended-for-spain-and-italy

Germany seizes  masks:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-09/germany-faces-backlash-from-neighbors-over-mask-export-ban

Germany bans export of medical supplies:  https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-germany-exports/germany-bans-export-of-medical-protection-gear-due-to-coronavirus-idUSL8N2AX3D9

Germany, again, seizing medical supplies going to Switzerland:  https://www.rt.com/news/483582-germany--switzerland-medical-supplies-coronavirus/

India reducing pharma exports:  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-india-drugs/europe-panicking-over-indias-pharmaceutical-export-curbs-industry-group-idUSKBN20R1MD

China nationalizing 3M factory:  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/business/masks-china-coronavirus.html

I could go on.  I found all of these with like three minutes of google searching, with slightly more effort there are hundreds of such articles 

It's amazing how 50 people will do something and Trump is one of them and then all of a sudden it's like everyone suddenly comes down with selective short term memory loss.

Have you read those articles? I followed the articles about Germany back to their sources and it seems the shipments were illegal. That's why they were seized. No one is suggesting that countries don't have the right to limit exports of items they need domestically. That's different from taking goods that had been paid for by another country while they were being moved from one plane to another in a third country.

You don't have to worry about what's true and what isn't. It will all come out in the years and years of analysis after this pandemic. Courses will be taught in universities about how it was handled. I personally don't think the USA will come out looking too neighbourly, but that's just my opinion.

If I had to guess, the truth will be in the eye of the beholder, and the version told by the CCP, Russia, USA, Europe, etc. will all be very different.  And they will all contain some truths and some distortions, either intentionally or due to the blinders of ideological bias.

[GuitarStv]

I'm going to try to state this in as neutral a way as possible:

If Trump is reelected, or comes quite close, then there will be substantial changes to both world politics and to corporate structures.

The news from 3M that the Trump administration had tried to stop them from exporting masks to Canada, and the reports about shipments to other countries being redirected to the States and Trump's efforts to gain sole access to a vaccine, will probably spur other countries to plan for a different future in which their economies and supply chains are separated as much as possible from the US. There is at this point little benefit to being allied to the US as long as Trump remains in charge.

For similar reasons, a lot of global corporations will either seriously consider splitting themselves up or else shifting their headquarters elsewhere to avoid being caught between two competing countries. If an American company's factory in Germany, for example, can be ordered to export all essential supplies to the US, then forced nationalisation of the facility by Germany becomes a real risk. Shift HQ to Dublin, though, and the company is now an EU firm with American operations.

This pisses me off.   How could we be so sloppy as to rely on foreign sources for things like N95 masks?     

We had a huge stockpile (55M) of masks from the sars outbreak 15 years ago and nobody was managing them.  (Most of them have expired)

I wonder if they're really useless now.

The n95 filters don't go bad if properly stored.  The elastic bands that affix the mask to the face degrade though.  If we have 55 million masks, they're usable, but might require jerry rigging to hold them up safely/correctly.

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

I'm going to try to state this in as neutral a way as possible:

If Trump is reelected, or comes quite close, then there will be substantial changes to both world politics and to corporate structures.

The news from 3M that the Trump administration had tried to stop them from exporting masks to Canada, and the reports about shipments to other countries being redirected to the States and Trump's efforts to gain sole access to a vaccine, will probably spur other countries to plan for a different future in which their economies and supply chains are separated as much as possible from the US. There is at this point little benefit to being allied to the US as long as Trump remains in charge.

For similar reasons, a lot of global corporations will either seriously consider splitting themselves up or else shifting their headquarters elsewhere to avoid being caught between two competing countries. If an American company's factory in Germany, for example, can be ordered to export all essential supplies to the US, then forced nationalisation of the facility by Germany becomes a real risk. Shift HQ to Dublin, though, and the company is now an EU firm with American operations.

I think America has burned a of bridges over the last few years. I think that even your administration might be unaware of just how many, because other countries are still using a little thing called diplomacy. It's kind of like bad service in a restaurant - you might not complain, but you won't go back and you'll tell your friends. Whether Trump gets in or not, the USA might find far fewer countries willing to get involved in whatever the USA is wanting to do. If Trump does get in, that effect will be ten fold. This thing with Canada and the masks? Trudeau isn't a complete arse, so he won't be retaliating...... but I bet he won't be backing the USA for much in the future.

Except that all these other countries have done the exact same thing:

France seizes masks:  https://www.dailysabah.com/world/europe/france-seizes-millions-of-masks-gloves-intended-for-spain-and-italy

Germany seizes  masks:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-09/germany-faces-backlash-from-neighbors-over-mask-export-ban

Germany bans export of medical supplies:  https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-germany-exports/germany-bans-export-of-medical-protection-gear-due-to-coronavirus-idUSL8N2AX3D9

Germany, again, seizing medical supplies going to Switzerland:  https://www.rt.com/news/483582-germany--switzerland-medical-supplies-coronavirus/

India reducing pharma exports:  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-india-drugs/europe-panicking-over-indias-pharmaceutical-export-curbs-industry-group-idUSKBN20R1MD

China nationalizing 3M factory:  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/business/masks-china-coronavirus.html

I could go on.  I found all of these with like three minutes of google searching, with slightly more effort there are hundreds of such articles 

It's amazing how 50 people will do something and Trump is one of them and then all of a sudden it's like everyone suddenly comes down with selective short term memory loss.

Have you read those articles? I followed the articles about Germany back to their sources and it seems the shipments were illegal. That's why they were seized. No one is suggesting that countries don't have the right to limit exports of items they need domestically. That's different from taking goods that had been paid for by another country while they were being moved from one plane to another in a third country.

You don't have to worry about what's true and what isn't. It will all come out in the years and years of analysis after this pandemic. Courses will be taught in universities about how it was handled. I personally don't think the USA will come out looking too neighbourly, but that's just my opinion.

If I had to guess, the truth will be in the eye of the beholder, and the version told by the CCP, Russia, USA, Europe, etc. will all be very different.  And they will all contain some truths and some distortions, either intentionally or due to the blinders of ideological bias.

I kind of agree. It'll be fascinating to see how this is all viewed once there's a bit of distance. There will be horrific stories come out on all sides.

[2Cent]

I'm really curious what the impact will be on our relationship with China. On the one hand China is trying to move into a global leadership position with a charm and propaganda offensive. I'm sure when the economic hits come they will make further moves to make the world dependent on them. On the other hand with the global supply chain disrupted many countries are now feeling how dependent they already are. So there will also be a counter move to loosen ties with China. It might be that the world divides into China dependent and China independent countries similar to the cold war east west divide.

[former player]

When you're broke, hungry, and essentially locked inside your home, it's kind of hard to be thinking about how it's all for the public good.

Yeah, we're not broke or hungry yet, but my husband did lose his job because of this. He's happy about that because it was a dangerous job with a shitty employer and they were taking advantage of him, and he'd rather be alive than going into virus-filled areas with no protection. But he's itching to get back to work, and will likely not have trouble (the shitty folks are begging already) since he does work most people are relying on right now.

The question of whether a pandemic and/or global crisis is positively or negatively correlated with depression and suicide is not easily answered. Poverty is not associated with suicide, but unemployment is, and the Depression did have a high suicide rate. War tends to have a lower rate. And I can't find anything that studies how a pandemic affects suicide and mental health. However, part of the reason I made a prediction that mental health would improve is because suicide rates have been unusually high in the last few years and no one knows the reason (social media, drugs, mental health). So if they were high already, the pandemic might cause them to fall.

My understanding is that it is the feeling of a loss of social/economic status and being on the wrong side of significant societal inequality that drives a lot of mental health issues and suicides.  When economic pain is generalised among a large group of people then that is less of a factor.  The big issue will be how societies come out of this: will those who have lost most from the shutdown have a ladder back to prosperity and will there be measures to help lessen economic inequalities, or will the fat cats and the profiteers be allowed to get even richer while the working classes get left behind?

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

When you're broke, hungry, and essentially locked inside your home, it's kind of hard to be thinking about how it's all for the public good.

Yeah, we're not broke or hungry yet, but my husband did lose his job because of this. He's happy about that because it was a dangerous job with a shitty employer and they were taking advantage of him, and he'd rather be alive than going into virus-filled areas with no protection. But he's itching to get back to work, and will likely not have trouble (the shitty folks are begging already) since he does work most people are relying on right now.

The question of whether a pandemic and/or global crisis is positively or negatively correlated with depression and suicide is not easily answered. Poverty is not associated with suicide, but unemployment is, and the Depression did have a high suicide rate. War tends to have a lower rate. And I can't find anything that studies how a pandemic affects suicide and mental health. However, part of the reason I made a prediction that mental health would improve is because suicide rates have been unusually high in the last few years and no one knows the reason (social media, drugs, mental health). So if they were high already, the pandemic might cause them to fall.

My understanding is that it is the feeling of a loss of social/economic status and being on the wrong side of significant societal inequality that drives a lot of mental health issues and suicides.  When economic pain is generalised among a large group of people then that is less of a factor.  The big issue will be how societies come out of this: will those who have lost most from the shutdown have a ladder back to prosperity and will there be measures to help lessen economic inequalities, or will the fat cats and the profiteers be allowed to get even richer while the working classes get left behind?

Not much of a question when you've got a fat orange cat making the rules.

[Fru-Gal]

Interestingly, suicide is not correlated with socio-economic status. It's highly correlated with gun ownership (not the only factor of course). In America, white males comprise 70% of all suicides, while African Americans have the lowest rate of all ethnicities. Latin America has high poverty and inequality and the lowest suicide rates in the world.

Sources:

1. https://afsp.org/about-suicide/suicide-statistics/

2. work I completed for a public health agency

[FIRE Artist]

Interestingly, suicide is not correlated with socio-economic status. It's highly correlated with gun ownership (not the only factor of course). In America, white males comprise 70% of all suicides, while African Americans have the lowest rate of all ethnicities. Latin America has high poverty and inequality and the lowest suicide rates in the world.

Sources:

1. https://afsp.org/about-suicide/suicide-statistics/

2. work I completed for a public health agency

OT

Malcom Gladwell's latest book Talking to Strangers talks about the link of the rate of suicide to the individual's preferred method of suicide.  It is pretty fascinating.  He talks about how the UK switching from coal gas to natural gas eliminated the option of sticking your head in an oven, and how as a result suicide deaths plummeted.  The argument is that if the preferred method of suicide is not available, people don't go out and find another method, contrary to what is common belief.  He made the same argument about putting rails up on the Golden Gate Bridge. 

Thought you might enjoy the book. 

[Psychstache]

Interestingly, suicide is not correlated with socio-economic status. It's highly correlated with gun ownership (not the only factor of course). In America, white males comprise 70% of all suicides, while African Americans have the lowest rate of all ethnicities. Latin America has high poverty and inequality and the lowest suicide rates in the world.

Sources:

1. https://afsp.org/about-suicide/suicide-statistics/

2. work I completed for a public health agency

OT

Malcom Gladwell's latest book Talking to Strangers talks about the link of the rate of suicide to the individual's preferred method of suicide.  It is pretty fascinating.  He talks about how the UK switching from coal gas to natural gas eliminated the option of sticking your head in an oven, and how as a result suicide deaths plummeted.  The argument is that if the preferred method of suicide is not available, people don't go out and find another method, contrary to what is common belief.  He made the same argument about putting rails up on the Golden Gate Bridge. 

Thought you might enjoy the book.

Yes, I enjoyed all of talking with strangers and this chapter particularly, since it ties into my work.

The Interpersonal Theory of Suicide is also a useful model for thinking about suicidality. In a very short oversimplified form, suicide ideation begins when you have two factors: failed belongingness (loss of a tribe) and perceived burdensomeness (believing that those you care about would be better off if you were gone). When these factors are present, it presents a risk of suicide, particularly for those who have high acquired ability, or the ability to handle pain and discomfort to be able to go through with the act.

It is an interesting model with evidence and support. It helps explain why increased firearms lead to increased suicides (no need for an acquired ability if your method of suicide is painless) and why some groups might have higher levels of suicide than expected (veterans, individuals with eating disorders). Dr. Thomas Joiner's book "Why People Die By Suicide" is a great resource for the interested parties.

[Fru-Gal]

Interesting stuff, thanks for the book recommendation.

[jinga nation]

Somewhat more people, but not most people, will remember being short on money when they were out of a job and will start spending less.

This will be good for them, but not good for the economy as a whole as it will make it harder for businesses who (barely) got through the upcoming bad times to ever recover.

Seriously doubt it. Humans are fickle and have short memories. After the last recession / housing bust, we're now at record highs for personal borrowing. Didn't learn jack shit.

Rinse & Repeat.

[Loretta]

Will the concept of checking in on our isolated mentally ill/unstable cohort remain once we’ve returned to business as usual?  I had been in a lot of communication with a college friend who is now schizophrenic and oh my gosh call me a villain but I had to stop communicating with her.  I’m afraid telehealth is not going to be enough support for her but she also needs to take some responsibility and do what she needs to do.  Don’t be arguing with schizophrenics, lesson learned.

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

Will the concept of checking in on our isolated mentally ill/unstable cohort remain once we’ve returned to business as usual?  I had been in a lot of communication with a college friend who is now schizophrenic and oh my gosh call me a villain but I had to stop communicating with her.  I’m afraid telehealth is not going to be enough support for her but she also needs to take some responsibility and do what she needs to do.  Don’t be arguing with schizophrenics, lesson learned.

It's not villainous to accept you can't deal with someone, for whatever reason. You need to be cognizant of your own mental health/energy levels/priorities also.

[js82]

- Online courses / e-learning / homeschooling. For both K-12 and universities, I think the sudden wide availability of school at home will continue. Many people may permanently pull their kids out of school over ongoing illness issues now that they've been forced to learn to homeschool.

-  Universities will go bankrupt eventually. Lots of money is tied up in having a fancy campus. With universities being closed we are learning  the optics of those fancy buildings do little to contribute to the education of students. Please note, I am not arguing that university buildings themselves are pointless. Many hours spent in science labs were the fundamentals of my education. The $$$ spent on optics for a university may no longer be valued as much.

I think the business models for universities will change, and probably for the better.  I think the footprint per student will go down, and more institutions will find ways to offer effective remote instruction.  This *should* have the effect of driving tuition down, if executed well.

Not every university will go bankrupt, but this shift will lead to economies of scale, which will probably mean fewer, larger universities, with a bigger online presence and smaller physical footprints on a per-student basis.

Other thoughts/hopes:
-I'm hoping corporate culture around staying home while sick will change.  Even if it's not Covid-19, coming into work while you're sick and infecting coworkers isn't good for the company - but some companies encourage employees to do just that, due either to stingy sick leave policies or screwed-up corporate culture.  This needs to change, and this might be the catalyst.

-People will remember that truckers, grocery store employees, etc. are *essential* workers, and that their jobs are important and deserve respect, even if they aren't paid the same as a CEO.

-A lot of anti-vaxxers will become *former* anti-vaxxers

-The death of certain retail chains(not a hope, but it's almost guaranteed to happen).  For struggling chains, this is probably their death knell.  In this environment, Amazon wins, brick-and-mortar loses.  And it's unlikely to return to "normal" for some time after this pandemic ends.

-People will realize that a certain level of medical support is essential from a public health perspective, and can actually save everyone money.  Making treatment for Covid-19 free is great, but it's not the only disease out there where having people uninsured that can't get treatment/preventative care only ends up costing society more than it would if we simply made treatment accessible for everyone.


I may be dreaming on some of these, but I do think this pandemic has the potential to be an "aha!" moment for a number of things that really ought to change, and could be a catalyst for improving at least a few of them.

[marble_faun]

The pandemic might spell the end of the typical movie theater. 

With theaters closed for COVID, studios are releasing their new films onto streaming platforms. For a long time the theaters were able to combat streaming and give themselves a window of exclusive time. But that might not be the case in the future.

The theaters that survive will have some sort of gimmick.  Like an interesting atmosphere or other entertainments to go along with the film which you can't experience at home. 

The average suburban multiplexes probably aren't going to hack it. They might struggle to survive for a few more years, but ultimately they will go the way of Blockbuster and Hollywood Video.

[marble_faun]

I really don't mean to be provocative, but depending on how the US responds to the next phases of the pandemic, I wonder how that will impact the gun rights movement in America. Over here, we are in country-wide lockdown enforced (in different ways in different areas) by the police. New crimes have been created, such as "coronavirus coughing" (deliberately coughing at people and claiming you have coronavirus). I know other countries are tracking mobile data to track transmission.

This seems to me like a classic case of the kind of tyrannical government gun supporters want the right to fight against. Will the lack of such controls be painted as a win by gun supporters? Or, if they come in, will the gun supporters take to the streets to fight it? If not, will their tyrannical government argument no longer hold as much weight?

@shelivesthedream : Sure enough, some people see coronavirus restrictions as infringements on their rights and are prepared to put up "physical defense" against the government: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/us/coronavirus-idaho-bundy-patriot.html

(These are the same people who tried to take over a wildlife refuge and had an armed stand-off with the government a few years back.)

[mm1970]

The pandemic might spell the end of the typical movie theater. 

With theaters closed for COVID, studios are releasing their new films onto streaming platforms. For a long time the theaters were able to combat streaming and give themselves a window of exclusive time. But that might not be the case in the future.

The theaters that survive will have some sort of gimmick.  Like an interesting atmosphere or other entertainments to go along with the film which you can't experience at home. 

The average suburban multiplexes probably aren't going to hack it. They might struggle to survive for a few more years, but ultimately they will go the way of Blockbuster and Hollywood Video.

I don't really see that happening.  I like watching movies in the comfort of my own home, when I can pause and go pee.

But my husband LOVES the theater.  It's his thing.  He goes often (compared to me anyway, maybe 6 movies a year), and with our kid, and I bought him a gift card for Christmas.  What's more, I know several people who see a LOT of movies.  Weekly, at least.

Added to that, there are now (in several metro areas) "fancy" theaters where they serve food and drinks (I remember in the 1990s, we had one small theater that did that).  I see the popularity of those growing, not reducing. 

[Psychstache]

The pandemic might spell the end of the typical movie theater. 

With theaters closed for COVID, studios are releasing their new films onto streaming platforms. For a long time the theaters were able to combat streaming and give themselves a window of exclusive time. But that might not be the case in the future.

The theaters that survive will have some sort of gimmick.  Like an interesting atmosphere or other entertainments to go along with the film which you can't experience at home. 

The average suburban multiplexes probably aren't going to hack it. They might struggle to survive for a few more years, but ultimately they will go the way of Blockbuster and Hollywood Video.

I don't really see that happening.  I like watching movies in the comfort of my own home, when I can pause and go pee.

But my husband LOVES the theater.  It's his thing.  He goes often (compared to me anyway, maybe 6 movies a year), and with our kid, and I bought him a gift card for Christmas.  What's more, I know several people who see a LOT of movies.  Weekly, at least.

Added to that, there are now (in several metro areas) "fancy" theaters where they serve food and drinks (I remember in the 1990s, we had one small theater that did that).  I see the popularity of those growing, not reducing.

Theaters that have a schtick and go above and beyond the atmosphere that can be developed at home will make it. I think OPs argument that we will have far fewer TOTAL theaters is likely.

We still enjoy going to see blockbusters starring explosions in the fancy theaters, but I can't remember the last time I set foot in an old school AMC or Cinemark type place.

[rantk81]

Theaters have really "upped their game" in the past few years.
Attached full service restaurants/bars.  Very large reclining seats, shared love-seats for couples.  Waiter/waitress service.  Much improved audio systems, etc.
With these improvements, the prices have gone up a little. However, I can see how the "value" of going out to the movies these days (pre-corona) has given the movie-go'er more bang-for-their-buck.

In spite of all of that, I still prefer my living room though :)

[jinga nation]

Cash will probably go away. I know most here don't use cash but I imagine the look of horror and disgust a cashier will have when someone tried to pay with virus encrusted dollars that they must touch and return in change. I wonder if pole dancers, strippers, etc take Am Ex.

They'll wear NFC payment system like Square's reader for contactless. Wonder if they'll accept chip insertion or mag stripe... hmmm... only one way to find out.
"Honey, this is a research trip to Club de Tetas."

[Travis]

Cash will probably go away. I know most here don't use cash but I imagine the look of horror and disgust a cashier will have when someone tried to pay with virus encrusted dollars that they must touch and return in change. I wonder if pole dancers, strippers, etc take Am Ex.

They'll wear NFC payment system like Square's reader for contactless. Wonder if they'll accept chip insertion or mag stripe... hmmm... only one way to find out.
"Honey, this is a research trip to Club de Tetas."

That seductive hand reaching around your waist? RF swiping your wallet.