Poll: Years to FI/RE

[dmn]

The 13+ year option is for those with a low savings rate (40% or less, or at least in that range) or those with a negative net worth (large student loans, for example).

It is also for those with more conservative assumptions on investment returns. With current levels of valuation (low interest, high P/E ratios), the expected real return on current investments is probably below 4% even for equity-heavy portfolios. I use a 3% SWR for my own estimates, and that puts me at ~18 years to retirement with a small initial stache and a 60% savings rate.

[arebelspy]

The 13+ year option is for those with a low savings rate (40% or less, or at least in that range) or those with a negative net worth (large student loans, for example).

It is also for those with more conservative assumptions on investment returns. With current levels of valuation (low interest, high P/E ratios), the expected real return on current investments is probably below 4% even for equity-heavy portfolios. I use a 3% SWR for my own estimates, and that puts me at ~18 years to retirement with a small initial stache and a 60% savings rate.

(Emphasis added.)  I'd change the word "the" to "my" in that sentence (not mine, but for you).

That's fair enough though, and a good point.  Someone more conservative will have a longer time to ER.  Someone wanting a 3% WR will take longer than a 4%, and someone who is shooting for a 2% WR even longer still.

[NewStachian]

I went with 1-4. I consider myself "potentially FI" right now - I could stop working, but I don't really want to move to a lower cost of living area. Another 1-4 years should make me more comfortable with my passive revenue.