Author Topic: Planet of the Humans  (Read 5510 times)

Shane

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Re: Planet of the Humans
« Reply #50 on: May 12, 2020, 01:02:55 PM »
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy

In 36 years, China's population increased by about 400 million. That with a centralized authoritarian government. Surely the policy slowed down the population growth, but if anything, this large scale experiment showed that family planning, birth control and women rights are a very long term strategy when it comes to population control.

Apparently, at least in China's cities, even now that their government has relaxed its One Child Policy, most families are voluntarily continuing to adhere to it. The Chinese government is concerned their population will soon start shrinking... Seems like a great thing to me. There's no way 1.4BB Chinese can all live like North Americans.

Travis

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Re: Planet of the Humans
« Reply #51 on: May 12, 2020, 06:27:03 PM »
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy

In 36 years, China's population increased by about 400 million. That with a centralized authoritarian government. Surely the policy slowed down the population growth, but if anything, this large scale experiment showed that family planning, birth control and women rights are a very long term strategy when it comes to population control.

Apparently, at least in China's cities, even now that their government has relaxed its One Child Policy, most families are voluntarily continuing to adhere to it. The Chinese government is concerned their population will soon start shrinking... Seems like a great thing to me. There's no way 1.4BB Chinese can all live like North Americans.

China's population problem as outlined in this article was identified in Japan, South Korea, and I believe Spain years ago.  A stable population requires something like 2.1 children per family. China's dropped to about 1.5 or less with an artificially high proportion being male.  In addition to not having enough children (especially girls), some of these countries with flat or negative population growth are also really strict with their immigration laws.  One study I read stated several regions of Japan would see their populations halved in 50 years with an increasingly greater share of those living being elderly potentially leading to their economic collapse.  There are also political and military stability issues with having too many single men roaming about with no prospects of starting a family or finding a job.

ministashy

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Re: Planet of the Humans
« Reply #52 on: May 12, 2020, 11:52:56 PM »
While I haven't watched the documentary in question, I can tell you that most serious environmentalists are fully aware that the only way to combat climate change and resource depletion is a worldwide, systemic change in how humans live and do business.  This includes renewable energy, reduction of consumption, massive increases in recycling and repairable goods, smarter use of existing freshwater supplies and farming practices that are less dependent on irrigation and nitrogen fertilizers. 
@ministashy , thanks for the link to the post comparing IFR and TWR. That was interesting.

Environmentalists claim to be aware, in theory at least, of a need to reduce consumption but, in reality, almost no one I know is willing to make any meaningful, personal lifestyle changes. Friends who claim to be environmentalists insist on driving everywhere - even very short distances of <1 mile, over flat terrain, in beautiful weather, when they're not carrying anything besides their cellphones.

At the risk of falling into the 'no true Scotsman' fallacy, I have to question whether the folks you are talking to are truly environmentalists, or just think they are because they throw their recyclables into the pretty blue bin with the triangle on it?  On the one hand, we all have our sins--no one is going to be perfect, especially in a high-carbon-footprint country like the U.S., where you could be homeless and still do more damage to the environment than someone living elsewhere--but if someone claims to be an environmentalist, but then refuses to change their lifestyle in any material way to address the looming spectre of climate change and environmental degradation, I'd give them the same side-eye as I would someone claiming to be Mustachian who consistently outspends their income and claims it's 'impossible to save'. 

There's a lot of folks who want the warm fuzzy feeling of 'doing something for the planet', but have never actually looked into what the real issues are or arranged their lives around mitigating that harm as much as is reasonably possible, given their circumstances.  I wouldn't condemn these folks--it's against human nature to go against what you see everyone else around you doing, and modern first world nations are insanely wasteful, the U.S. especially so--but at the same time, I'm not going to give them a gold star, either.  I just try to get them to consider other options when and where I can, and do what I can to make environmentally friendly (or less damaging) decisions within my circle of control.

cerat0n1a

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Re: Planet of the Humans
« Reply #53 on: May 13, 2020, 04:25:11 AM »
In addition to not having enough children (especially girls), some of these countries with flat or negative population growth are also really strict with their immigration laws.

More than half of the world's countries now have a birth rate below replacement rate, and more than half of the world's population lives in those countries. Many of those countries still have growing populations because lifespans are extending and/or because higher fertility rates in the past mean that there's a proportionately higher number of women of childbearing age. It's pretty difficult to find a country where the birth rate doesn't drop sharply once a certain level of education and material wealth is attained. Even places like Iran, where you might think government and religious policies would mandate lots of children don't seem to be immune to it. Lifting people out of poverty seems to be the best way to reduce the population, long-term.

slappy

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Re: Planet of the Humans
« Reply #54 on: May 13, 2020, 06:40:45 AM »
These problems all cease to be problems with 5 billion fewer people on the planet.

Good point. Has anyone seen Thanos lately?

I "see" Thanos every time a new current event happens. Covid-19, earthquakes, killer hornets... He has all the infinity stones again and he's pissed.

Shane

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Re: Planet of the Humans
« Reply #55 on: May 13, 2020, 07:19:13 AM »
While I haven't watched the documentary in question, I can tell you that most serious environmentalists are fully aware that the only way to combat climate change and resource depletion is a worldwide, systemic change in how humans live and do business.  This includes renewable energy, reduction of consumption, massive increases in recycling and repairable goods, smarter use of existing freshwater supplies and farming practices that are less dependent on irrigation and nitrogen fertilizers. 
@ministashy , thanks for the link to the post comparing IFR and TWR. That was interesting.

Environmentalists claim to be aware, in theory at least, of a need to reduce consumption but, in reality, almost no one I know is willing to make any meaningful, personal lifestyle changes. Friends who claim to be environmentalists insist on driving everywhere - even very short distances of <1 mile, over flat terrain, in beautiful weather, when they're not carrying anything besides their cellphones.

At the risk of falling into the 'no true Scotsman' fallacy, I have to question whether the folks you are talking to are truly environmentalists, or just think they are because they throw their recyclables into the pretty blue bin with the triangle on it?  On the one hand, we all have our sins--no one is going to be perfect, especially in a high-carbon-footprint country like the U.S., where you could be homeless and still do more damage to the environment than someone living elsewhere--but if someone claims to be an environmentalist, but then refuses to change their lifestyle in any material way to address the looming spectre of climate change and environmental degradation, I'd give them the same side-eye as I would someone claiming to be Mustachian who consistently outspends their income and claims it's 'impossible to save'. 

There's a lot of folks who want the warm fuzzy feeling of 'doing something for the planet', but have never actually looked into what the real issues are or arranged their lives around mitigating that harm as much as is reasonably possible, given their circumstances.  I wouldn't condemn these folks--it's against human nature to go against what you see everyone else around you doing, and modern first world nations are insanely wasteful, the U.S. especially so--but at the same time, I'm not going to give them a gold star, either.  I just try to get them to consider other options when and where I can, and do what I can to make environmentally friendly (or less damaging) decisions within my circle of control.

Agreed, shaming people who don't live up to an arbitrary definition of "environmentalist" is not a very productive use of time. I try to do the best I can, while keeping in mind that others are, hopefully, doing the same. I always tell people "It's fine to do anything you want, just not everything." For example, it's okay to drive a Hummer if that's what makes you happy. Just don't drive it very much. It's fine to live in a big house if you want. Just make sure the big house is close to your work, so you can walk and leave your Hummer parked in the driveway. I have a friend who lives in Seattle who, every winter, flies to Switzerland to go skiing for a long weekend. Some people get on his case about that, since he also claims to be an "environmentalist," but I think it's pointless to attack individuals for doing things that they love that make them happy.

If, as a society, we decided that we really wanted to make a difference, we would institute something like a carbon tax that would make it much, much more expensive for Americans to continue consuming as much as we do now. That way, people who wanted to drive their Hummer 1/2 mile to the grocery store, or who liked to fly to Switzerland for the weekend, would have to pay real money to do that, and others, who made more moderate choices in their lives would be the net benefactors of those choices, because they would get a check in the mail, every month or whatever, and the people who were emitting more carbon would end up paying for closer to the real cost of their lifestyle choices.

Even a pretty mild carbon tax like they've been trying out in Canada seems to get a lot of push back, though. Making goods and services more expensive means people consume less of them, which is what we should want, but it's also seen as being "bad for the economy." It just seems to me like no matter what we do as individuals, it's not really going to make much of a difference. If a small group of people who think of themselves as environmentalists start consuming less of something, say fuel, the price will drop a little bit, and other people will take that as a signal that they should buy bigger SUVs and start driving them more.


Shane

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Re: Planet of the Humans
« Reply #56 on: May 13, 2020, 07:26:23 AM »
In addition to not having enough children (especially girls), some of these countries with flat or negative population growth are also really strict with their immigration laws.

More than half of the world's countries now have a birth rate below replacement rate, and more than half of the world's population lives in those countries. Many of those countries still have growing populations because lifespans are extending and/or because higher fertility rates in the past mean that there's a proportionately higher number of women of childbearing age. It's pretty difficult to find a country where the birth rate doesn't drop sharply once a certain level of education and material wealth is attained. Even places like Iran, where you might think government and religious policies would mandate lots of children don't seem to be immune to it. Lifting people out of poverty seems to be the best way to reduce the population, long-term.

As you say, most Western countries' fertility rate is already below replacement. The US, UK, Australia, Canada, NZ, etc., are all importing workers from poorer countries, so they can keep growing their populations and economies. Eventually, once all countries become "developed," there won't be anywhere left from which to import workers, as all populations, of all countries, will be going down, not up. From an environmental perspective, that seems like a great thing to me. We need economists, though, who can come up with a viable plan for moving forward that doesn't include constant growth.

cerat0n1a

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Re: Planet of the Humans
« Reply #57 on: May 13, 2020, 08:27:45 AM »
As you say, most Western countries' fertility rate is already below replacement.

It's not just Western countries - the birthrate has dropped surprisingly quickly in many developing countries. Vietnam & Bangladesh are expected to be below 2.0 this year, for example.

Travis

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Re: Planet of the Humans
« Reply #58 on: May 13, 2020, 09:47:17 AM »
In addition to not having enough children (especially girls), some of these countries with flat or negative population growth are also really strict with their immigration laws.

More than half of the world's countries now have a birth rate below replacement rate, and more than half of the world's population lives in those countries. Many of those countries still have growing populations because lifespans are extending and/or because higher fertility rates in the past mean that there's a proportionately higher number of women of childbearing age. It's pretty difficult to find a country where the birth rate doesn't drop sharply once a certain level of education and material wealth is attained. Even places like Iran, where you might think government and religious policies would mandate lots of children don't seem to be immune to it. Lifting people out of poverty seems to be the best way to reduce the population, long-term.

As you say, most Western countries' fertility rate is already below replacement. The US, UK, Australia, Canada, NZ, etc., are all importing workers from poorer countries, so they can keep growing their populations and economies. Eventually, once all countries become "developed," there won't be anywhere left from which to import workers, as all populations, of all countries, will be going down, not up. From an environmental perspective, that seems like a great thing to me. We need economists, though, who can come up with a viable plan for moving forward that doesn't include constant growth.

And a system that can support a higher average population age. Fewer babies + people living longer=lots of old people.

Shane

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Re: Planet of the Humans
« Reply #59 on: May 13, 2020, 03:52:07 PM »
As you say, most Western countries' fertility rate is already below replacement.

It's not just Western countries - the birthrate has dropped surprisingly quickly in many developing countries. Vietnam & Bangladesh are expected to be below 2.0 this year, for example.

Cool!

Shane

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Re: Planet of the Humans
« Reply #60 on: May 13, 2020, 03:56:06 PM »
In addition to not having enough children (especially girls), some of these countries with flat or negative population growth are also really strict with their immigration laws.

More than half of the world's countries now have a birth rate below replacement rate, and more than half of the world's population lives in those countries. Many of those countries still have growing populations because lifespans are extending and/or because higher fertility rates in the past mean that there's a proportionately higher number of women of childbearing age. It's pretty difficult to find a country where the birth rate doesn't drop sharply once a certain level of education and material wealth is attained. Even places like Iran, where you might think government and religious policies would mandate lots of children don't seem to be immune to it. Lifting people out of poverty seems to be the best way to reduce the population, long-term.

As you say, most Western countries' fertility rate is already below replacement. The US, UK, Australia, Canada, NZ, etc., are all importing workers from poorer countries, so they can keep growing their populations and economies. Eventually, once all countries become "developed," there won't be anywhere left from which to import workers, as all populations, of all countries, will be going down, not up. From an environmental perspective, that seems like a great thing to me. We need economists, though, who can come up with a viable plan for moving forward that doesn't include constant growth.

And a system that can support a higher average population age. Fewer babies + people living longer=lots of old people.

Our economic system seems like a big pyramid scheme.