Poll

How long will we need to maintain a General COVID Lockdown

1)  Open now.  Net Longterm (LT) outcome is already negative.
39 (18.7%)
2)  1-3 months.  Effective Treatment will occur, and/or net LT outcome will suffer if closed longer.
103 (49.3%)
3)  4 - 12 months.  World will still have a better off net LT outcome for the next year
45 (21.5%)
4)  12- 18 months.  Vaccine or nothing.
18 (8.6%)
5)  Never.  You can't have a livlihood without a life.
4 (1.9%)

Total Members Voted: 207

Author Topic: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last  (Read 4933 times)

Slee_stack

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Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« on: April 21, 2020, 08:17:21 AM »
Genuinely curious to this forum's opinions here.

Some people will value lives differently.

Unforeseen effects on future lives lost due to COVID and shutdown related deaths are difficult if not impossible to estimate.

Solutions such as treatments, vaccines, antibody testing, etc. may be nearer or farther away.

What do you think anyway?  When can we begin to discourage social isolation (not distancing).

What general 're-opening' timeframe will occur and/or provide the best Longterm result?
« Last Edit: April 21, 2020, 10:38:47 AM by Slee_stack »

chemistk

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Re: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2020, 08:27:32 AM »
I chose '1-3 months' because:

1) I believe that's about how long it's going to be before most areas are opened to some degree.

2) As a parent of young kids (3 under 5), there's absolutely an upper limit to what we're going to be able to mentally and emotionally handle, as parents, being stuck inside with the kids and them not being able to see grandparents/relatives & going to parks, library, etc. I know from plenty of conversations with other parents of a similar family structure that we all can't keep our kids locked inside indefinitely, only able to go on walks.

3) My and my wife's parents are going to say 'fuck it' at some point and just go out (following distancing and facemasks where they have to) because restrictions be damned.

-----

Basically, whether or not we're ready (where we stand with infection control), there's a huge population that will just start to ignore the lockdown....summer is coming and you can't keep a population semi-voluntarily locked away forever.

The only way to quell the unrest is either to enforce a lockdown (police/nat'l guard) or to appease the population and reopen a certain percentage of what's currently closed.

former player

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Re: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2020, 09:22:20 AM »
I'm in favour of having every economic and social activity allowed that can be safely open, which I think means -

1) Any activities which have no risk of passing on the virus whether the person carrying them out is negative, asymptomatic, symptomatic or recovered with antibodies.  These will mostly be solitary and/or outdoor occupations.

2)  Any activities necessary to human and animal life -farming, food, medical, etc.  Persons carrying these activities out should take all practical precautions, including having regular testing, appropriate PPE, social distancing where possible, keeping records of contacts for ease of contact tracing if they test positive.

3) If infection rates in an area are past the top of the curve, then activities which are not strictly necessary but where risk assessments (a process familiar to all activities subject to health and safety legislation) show that the risks of spreading infection can be limited and controlled, again with all participants taking all practical precautions, including having regular testing, appropriate PPE, social distancing where possible, keeping records of contacts for ease of contact tracing if they test positive. 

4)  Some activities will be risky in any circumstances where the virus is still circulating, such as large ticketed events (sports, concerts) or large groups singing.  These may need to be heavily restricted in attendance - for instance, limiting attendance to residents of areas with no known infection risks.

5)  Enhanced medical, economic and social support systems will have to become the norm for those most at risk from the virus.

Slee_stack

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Re: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2020, 09:37:21 AM »
I'm in favour of having every economic and social activity allowed that can be safely open, which I think means -

1) Any activities which have no risk of passing on the virus whether the person carrying them out is negative, asymptomatic, symptomatic or recovered with antibodies.  These will mostly be solitary and/or outdoor occupations.

2)  Any activities necessary to human and animal life -farming, food, medical, etc.  Persons carrying these activities out should take all practical precautions, including having regular testing, appropriate PPE, social distancing where possible, keeping records of contacts for ease of contact tracing if they test positive.

3) If infection rates in an area are past the top of the curve, then activities which are not strictly necessary but where risk assessments (a process familiar to all activities subject to health and safety legislation) show that the risks of spreading infection can be limited and controlled, again with all participants taking all practical precautions, including having regular testing, appropriate PPE, social distancing where possible, keeping records of contacts for ease of contact tracing if they test positive. 

4)  Some activities will be risky in any circumstances where the virus is still circulating, such as large ticketed events (sports, concerts) or large groups singing.  These may need to be heavily restricted in attendance - for instance, limiting attendance to residents of areas with no known infection risks.

5)  Enhanced medical, economic and social support systems will have to become the norm for those most at risk from the virus.
No simple poll would account for selective conditions.  All that would result in would be one choice:  We will reopen WHEN...

Which of course ignores timeline.  Time matters to do anything.  How much time can pass is the question.

The poll just basically gauges folks' gut feelings moving forward as to how much time can pass before we are net negatively impacted.

I bolded a part of your response that seemed super random to me and made me laugh.  Does 'mass singing' rival sporting events and concerts?!

bacchi

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Re: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2020, 09:46:09 AM »
I bolded a part of your response that seemed super random to me and made me laugh.  Does 'mass singing' rival sporting events and concerts?!

It was probably in reference to the choir in WA that infected ~75% of the attendees. The choir conductor decided to go ahead and practice because there weren't any local cases.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak

OtherJen

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Re: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2020, 10:10:31 AM »
I'm in favour of having every economic and social activity allowed that can be safely open, which I think means -

1) Any activities which have no risk of passing on the virus whether the person carrying them out is negative, asymptomatic, symptomatic or recovered with antibodies.  These will mostly be solitary and/or outdoor occupations.

2)  Any activities necessary to human and animal life -farming, food, medical, etc.  Persons carrying these activities out should take all practical precautions, including having regular testing, appropriate PPE, social distancing where possible, keeping records of contacts for ease of contact tracing if they test positive.

3) If infection rates in an area are past the top of the curve, then activities which are not strictly necessary but where risk assessments (a process familiar to all activities subject to health and safety legislation) show that the risks of spreading infection can be limited and controlled, again with all participants taking all practical precautions, including having regular testing, appropriate PPE, social distancing where possible, keeping records of contacts for ease of contact tracing if they test positive. 

4)  Some activities will be risky in any circumstances where the virus is still circulating, such as large ticketed events (sports, concerts) or large groups singing.  These may need to be heavily restricted in attendance - for instance, limiting attendance to residents of areas with no known infection risks.

5)  Enhanced medical, economic and social support systems will have to become the norm for those most at risk from the virus.
No simple poll would account for selective conditions.  All that would result in would be one choice:  We will reopen WHEN...

Which of course ignores timeline.  Time matters to do anything.  How much time can pass is the question.

The poll just basically gauges folks' gut feelings moving forward as to how much time can pass before we are net negatively impacted.

I bolded a part of your response that seemed super random to me and made me laugh.  Does 'mass singing' rival sporting events and concerts?!

See bacchi’s link regarding heavy transmission from an asymptomatic carrier during choir rehearsal. My choir directors are taking this very seriously.

Slee_stack

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Re: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #6 on: April 21, 2020, 10:34:50 AM »
OK I didn't read about that.  I did read about a funeral causing something similar in rural GA though.

Still funny w/o context!

GizmoTX

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2020, 10:50:54 AM »
I'm for opening now in places that aren't hot spots, i.e. most of the USA. It will take considerable time to get things started again. With every day we delay, we are risking the end of our country as we know it, economically. The risk of dying from a mega depression or hyperinflation is much greater than any virus. Meanwhile, those at risk can & should continue to isolate.

Cranky

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #8 on: April 21, 2020, 11:22:05 AM »
It seems like the things that people most want to be open - restaurants, gyms, hair salons - are the things that will be the most hazardous in terms of infection transmission.

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #9 on: April 21, 2020, 11:24:01 AM »
I agree there is a lot of value in doing risk analysis and opening things that are low risk. I've been unimpressed with how "essential" has been defined though. Maybe we can do better with risk analysis.

It would be really interesting to correlate the data from this poll the one I started to see how much impact the stay at home order has had on peoples quality of life. I suspect people who were happiest stay home anyway are more comfortable with a longer lockdown. So far that's about half the responses.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/staying-home-to-normal-days-exchange-rate/msg2609628/#msg2609628


Alternatepriorities

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #10 on: April 21, 2020, 11:30:17 AM »
It seems like the things that people most want to be open - restaurants, gyms, hair salons - are the things that will be the most hazardous in terms of infection transmission.

We have fire codes that determine how many people can be in a building at a time. It seems like we could use that same system to limit crowding. ie restaurants can only seat 1/3 their normal capacity or something. Large gatherings like concerts, conventions, and mega churches seem much more likely to infect a lot of people at once and overwhelm the local medical system.

I don't believe small gatherings of friends and family in private residences should ever have been banned and that should be lifted immediately. Obviously, no one should be forced to attend. :)

Kris

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #11 on: April 21, 2020, 11:35:00 AM »
I didn't choose, because I don't really see an option that encompasses what I think.

To wit: we need to put in place widespread testing and tracking.

Speaking from a US perspective: As long as we don't have enough tests to check pretty much everyone who needs to be checked on a somewhat regular basis, and the ability to track infections, we're basically not "ready" to open back up.

A vaccine is many months away, at minimum.

And yet, I see no evidence of a nationwide move by the federal government to ramp up test production and coordinate with state and local governments to begin that process nationwide.

So, what I see going forward is sporadic attempts by states/localities to open up, then Covid surges in those areas, and then the need to close things back down again. Over and over, for months.

« Last Edit: April 21, 2020, 11:49:19 AM by Kris »

24andfrugal

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #12 on: April 21, 2020, 11:43:52 AM »
Unpopular opinion:

I think most of the restrictions that have been put in place (USA) are uncomfortably authoritarian infringements of rights. For that reason I think they should be lifted. Rather than shuttering businesses, I think an effective way to mitigate risk might be to use something like a fire code (a "health code"?) to limit the occupancy of certain places, like restaurants and retail stores, on a temporary basis.

I think that many people, especially those high-risk, will simply not want to go out even if restrictions are lifted. Standing within 6 feet of a stranger will become a social faux pas akin to taking the adjacent urinal when all of them are available (so I am told...never had occasion to use a urinal ;) ).

mizzourah2006

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #13 on: April 21, 2020, 11:48:50 AM »
Isn't opening now and 1-3 months the same thing? The lockdown is at ~6 weeks as of Friday. March 13th to Apri 24th is 6 weeks.

24andfrugal

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #14 on: April 21, 2020, 11:51:19 AM »
Isn't opening now and 1-3 months the same thing? The lockdown is at ~6 weeks as of Friday. March 13th to Apri 24th is 6 weeks.

I think OP meant "from now"

the_gastropod

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #15 on: April 21, 2020, 11:51:57 AM »
I'm for opening now in places that aren't hot spots, i.e. most of the USA.

Places become hot spots by not taking this seriously. New York had its first case ~6 weeks ago. Now more than 10k New Yorkers are dead.

It will take considerable time to get things started again. With every day we delay, we are risking the end of our country as we know it, economically. The risk of dying from a mega depression or hyperinflation is much greater than any virus. Meanwhile, those at risk can & should continue to isolate.

I see people say this (that economic depressions cause death) all the time. But I have no idea where they're getting this idea. In actuality, all past evidence shows life expectancies are higher during economic depressions (https://www.history.com/news/great-depression-economy-life-expectancy). Things like traffic accidents, pollution, cigarette smoking, drinking, eating out, all tend to drop during rough economic times. These are bad for our health, and... well, you get the rest.

Another odd claim that continues is that "high risk" people are the only ones who should really be concerned. There are more than just two outcomes of surviving and dying from this virus. Many people without "high risk" factors do die. And many more survive with permanent damage to their lungs, cardiovascular systems (e.g., required amputations), etc.

It's really frustrating that this has become a political issue. This is a serious matter, and people treating it so cavalierly put everyone else's health at greater risk. None of us are islands—we need to follow the golden rule here, and treat others with respect, and behave responsibly.

I didn't choose, because I don't really see an option that encompasses what I think.

To wit: we need to put in place widespread testing and tracking.

Speaking from a US perspective: As long as we don't have enough tests to check pretty much everyone who needs to be checked on a somewhat regular basis, and the ability to track infections, we're basically not "ready" to open back up.

A vaccine is many months away, at minimum.

And yet, I see no evidence of a nationwide move by the federal government to ramp up test production and coordinate with state and local governments to begin that process nationwide.

So, what I see going forward is sporadic attempts by states/localities to open up, then Covid surges in those areas, and then the need to close things back down again. Over and over, for months.

Well put! We need tests. I don't know why (in the US), there's confusion about this point. South Korea, for example, absolutely nailed the testing, and they were able to contain the virus and get back to (mostly) business as usual. The blueprint is there—we just need to follow it.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2020, 11:57:52 AM by the_gastropod »

Nick_Miller

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #16 on: April 21, 2020, 11:55:34 AM »
I chose 1-3 months, meaning open things up between May 21st and July 21st.

As someone pointed out, at some point people will rebel if we keep the belt tightened too much. BUT social distancing, masks, reduced capacities, increased cleaning, will have to be the new norm in businesses and the gov't MUST ramp up testing.

But I see talk of amusement parks opening this summer and I'm like HOW? How in the hell do you social distance when you're mushed in a line?

The Millers will be doing bare minimum this year. I'm sure we'll have small get-togethers with family and friends, with emphasis on "small" and I don't see us going into any crowd of any kind until we're all vaccinated.

mizzourah2006

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #17 on: April 21, 2020, 11:58:37 AM »
Isn't opening now and 1-3 months the same thing? The lockdown is at ~6 weeks as of Friday. March 13th to Apri 24th is 6 weeks.

I think OP meant "from now"

Well in that case I'd lean towards less than a month from now. But greater than 1 week. I think this completely depends on where you are. In my county of ~300k people we've had 3 confirmed cases in the past 8 days and 42 total. I get that we aren't an island....but are we supposed to wait until it's over in NYC to resume sending our kids back to school or daycare? I could give a shit about going to restaurants in the next month or so, but I don't know how long I can continue to work full time and be a fulltime daycare to a 4 and a 2 year old. I don't know how long my leadership will continue to let me do it either.

px4shooter

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #18 on: April 21, 2020, 12:02:49 PM »
Unpopular opinion:

I think most of the restrictions that have been put in place (USA) are uncomfortably authoritarian infringements of rights. For that reason I think they should be lifted. Rather than shuttering businesses, I think an effective way to mitigate risk might be to use something like a fire code (a "health code"?) to limit the occupancy of certain places, like restaurants and retail stores, on a temporary basis.

I think that many people, especially those high-risk, will simply not want to go out even if restrictions are lifted. Standing within 6 feet of a stranger will become a social faux pas akin to taking the adjacent urinal when all of them are available (so I am told...never had occasion to use a urinal ;) ).

Exactly. The ideas of what businesses should and shouldn't be open right now is strictly who donates the most money. We have all drive thrus open, walk in for take-out, home weed delivery, home alcohol delivery, and so on. Weed & alcohol are huge contributors to politicians.

I really laugh at this idea of isolation, when Dutch Bros. has 40 cars in line and they are pushing them out like crazy.

This "plan" is not to stop the spread. It isn't to prevent the spread. It is only to temporarily slow the spread. The same number will be infected, but we just wanted to slow the infection as to not over-burden the medical capabilities.

False hope of cloth masks and people wearing gloves is truly sad. Gloves don't prevent the spread and most people don't know how to use them correctly. The cloth masks are great if you are the one infected. The N95 masks are only 95% effective and the virus is right on the size range the mask doesn't stop. It will depend on the exact size of that particular virus if it will be stopped.

And we have governors banning acts, which are legally protected. Police arresting people for lawful acts. Businesses closed because they are deemed non-essential by one locality, while another allows them to be open.

After Katrina, my state enacted laws to protect certain rights. One thing was gun rights. Even with this law in place, our governor tried to ignore the law and become a dictator. He was soon reminded how limited his power actually is. He had to rely on local government to actually create and enforce the business restrictions, as he lacks the power. I am sure that will change, with some new laws to give the position greater authority.

24andfrugal

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #19 on: April 21, 2020, 12:10:03 PM »
I'm for opening now in places that aren't hot spots, i.e. most of the USA.

Places become hot spots by not taking this seriously. New York had its first case ~6 weeks ago. Now more than 10k New Yorkers are dead.

It will take considerable time to get things started again. With every day we delay, we are risking the end of our country as we know it, economically. The risk of dying from a mega depression or hyperinflation is much greater than any virus. Meanwhile, those at risk can & should continue to isolate.

I see people say this (that economic depressions cause death) all the time. But I have no idea where they're getting this idea. In actuality, all past evidence shows life expectancies are higher during economic depressions (https://www.history.com/news/great-depression-economy-life-expectancy).

Another odd claim that continues is that "high risk" people are the only ones who should really be concerned. There are more than just two outcomes of surviving and dying from this virus. Many people without "high risk" factors do die. And many more survive with permanent damage to their lungs, cardiovascular systems (e.g., required amputations), etc.

It's really frustrating that this has become a political issue. This is a serious matter, and people treating it so cavalierly put everyone else's health at greater risk. None of us are islands—we need to follow the golden rule here, and treat others with respect, and behave responsibly.


On NY/hot spots - yes and no. NYC and other large cities are having the problems they are because of population density - everyone is on top of each other, quite literally. There is some evidence to suggest that the MTA/public transportation exacerbated the spread. Many, many places in the US have "built-in" social distancing, simply because people are more spread out. You don't need to have regulations on how many people can be in the grocery store when there are only 10/15 people in the store on a normal day. It isn't reasonable to argue that everywhere will experience the same onslaught of cases that NYC did, because different places have different risk factors.

On economic depressions and death - if we see a permanent loss of jobs, particularly small businesses and those in the service sector, then we will see an exacerbation of many societal ills which do reduce quality of life and life expectancy. People forget that immediately following the Great Depression was a massive world war which sent many people to the front lines and many others to factories. I don't foresee a war following this pandemic, we will be simply trying to piece our way back to normal.

And I cannot help but feel sad for those who are putting off cancer screenings, heart surgeries, knee replacements and other types of preventative care.

flyingaway

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #20 on: April 21, 2020, 12:21:38 PM »
I think the need for more testing is just an excuse.

A person tested negative could become positive tomorrow. Do we want to test everyone every day?

Can we quarantine everyone who are tested positive? You cannot just ask people to self-quarantine at home because some of them will not comply, like the current stay-at-home orders.

How do you know a positive person is no longer contagious? Test the person everyday? Because that person wants to get out as soon as possible.

How reliable are the different tests?

24andfrugal

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #21 on: April 21, 2020, 12:21:45 PM »

This "plan" is not to stop the spread. It isn't to prevent the spread. It is only to temporarily slow the spread. The same number will be infected, but we just wanted to slow the infection as to not over-burden the medical capabilities.

False hope of cloth masks and people wearing gloves is truly sad. Gloves don't prevent the spread and most people don't know how to use them correctly. The cloth masks are great if you are the one infected. The N95 masks are only 95% effective and the virus is right on the size range the mask doesn't stop. It will depend on the exact size of that particular virus if it will be stopped.


People need something to hold onto, something that they can do that makes them feel like they have some kind of control. For a while it was staying home (to "stop" the spread!), now at least where I am it is masks and gloves - in addition to tattling on your neighbor, of course. So they convince themselves that all will be right if they do these things, no one will die, no one will get sick. That isn't and has never been true, but people need to believe that it is because the reality that it isn't going to go away in two weeks or two months even if we only go out for essentials and wear masks and whatever else is too much to deal with. I am not willing to stay home, away from my friends and family for a year and a half (the *hopeful* timeline for a vaccine) and I am not one of the 22.5 million people unemployed! Very few people would stay home for a year and a half. Our society cannot survive being shut off for a year and a half. I think most people would agree with that, but they can't or don't want to make the connection that the absolute danger is not going to magically change in 1 month, 2 months, or whatever arbitrary deadline their overlord/governor has told them they have to wait for.

Kris

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #22 on: April 21, 2020, 12:27:45 PM »
I think the need for more testing is just an excuse.

A person tested negative could become positive tomorrow. Do we want to test everyone every day?

Can we quarantine everyone who are tested positive? You cannot just ask people to self-quarantine at home because some of them will not comply, like the current stay-at-home orders.

How do you know a positive person is no longer contagious? Test the person everyday? Because that person wants to get out as soon as possible.

How reliable are the different tests?

You're forgetting the "and tracking" part of the testing.

24andfrugal

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #23 on: April 21, 2020, 12:27:56 PM »
I think the need for more testing is just an excuse.

A person tested negative could become positive tomorrow. Do we want to test everyone every day?

Can we quarantine everyone who are tested positive? You cannot just ask people to self-quarantine at home because some of them will not comply, like the current stay-at-home orders.

How do you know a positive person is no longer contagious? Test the person everyday? Because that person wants to get out as soon as possible.

How reliable are the different tests?

The problem with testing, quarantining, contact tracing etc. is that some undetermined but large share of cases are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic (this is actually a good thing in an absolute sense). There is no way to keep tabs on all of those potential cases. Taking someone's temperature to enter a public place (as has been floated) is useless for the same reason.

the_gastropod

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #24 on: April 21, 2020, 12:31:32 PM »
On NY/hot spots - yes and no. NYC and other large cities are having the problems they are because of population density - everyone is on top of each other, quite literally. There is some evidence to suggest that the MTA/public transportation exacerbated the spread. Many, many places in the US have "built-in" social distancing, simply because people are more spread out. You don't need to have regulations on how many people can be in the grocery store when there are only 10/15 people in the store on a normal day. It isn't reasonable to argue that everywhere will experience the same onslaught of cases that NYC did, because different places have different risk factors.

New York is special for many reasons in the US. I wouldn't be so quick to place full responsibility on its population density. There are a few reasons for this:
1. The neighborhoods hardest hit tend to be the least dense (they also tend to be the most impoverished) and have the highest car ownership per capita.
2. Cities *far* denser than NYC have handled this quite well. Cities like Singapore, Hong Kong, Seoul, etc. make NYC's density look like a joke, but have fewer covid cases per capita than the best states in the U.S.
3. While it's still a far cry from NY's levels, Detroit, a notoriously spread out city, is one of the worst hit, still gaining ~600 new cases daily.

There will no doubt be studies into what happened in NY. There will be lessons to be learned. Let's wait for that instead of making up rationalizations that don't really hold up to much scrutiny.

On economic depressions and death - if we see a permanent loss of jobs, particularly small businesses and those in the service sector, then we will see an exacerbation of many societal ills which do reduce quality of life and life expectancy. People forget that immediately following the Great Depression was a massive world war which sent many people to the front lines and many others to factories. I don't foresee a war following this pandemic, we will be simply trying to piece our way back to normal.

Do you have any basis to back this up? I'll provide more evidence: during the 2009 great recession, life expectancies also increased: https://www.sociology.ox.ac.uk/seminars/the-effect-of-the-great-recession-on-life-expectancy-in-the-u-s-and-the-u-k.html Recessions don't kill people. Viruses do. This argument is bunk.

And I cannot help but feel sad for those who are putting off cancer screenings, heart surgeries, knee replacements and other types of preventative care.

Aaaaabsolutely. For what it's worth, NY has just resumed elective surgeries. These were delayed because our hospitals were largely filled with covid patients. Now that this is easing up a bit, there's no reason non-urgent medical procedures can't resume. Returning to "life as usual" again, is only going to re-spike the coronavirus cases, flooding the hospitals, delaying other medical procedures again. Isolation has to continue until better testing is available.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2020, 12:37:49 PM by the_gastropod »

fattest_foot

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #25 on: April 21, 2020, 12:38:50 PM »
Places become hot spots by not taking this seriously. New York had its first case ~6 weeks ago. Now more than 10k New Yorkers are dead.

I think it's disingenuous to compare NYC to most other places in the country. Even other cities. NYC is unique. Most people don't own cars, the government limited the number of subway trains in some kind of weird reverse social distancing experiment, the prevalence of restaurant culture in the city, etc.

That's not to say other cities can't experience the same spread, but it's unlikely that anywhere else in the US will be as bad as NYC.

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #26 on: April 21, 2020, 12:41:04 PM »
I honestly don’t know. This article about a big tourist destination in Northern Michigan is concerning. It’s not even really tourist season now, and the local businesses are already encountering issues. The economy isn’t going to come roaring back once the shutdown orders are lifted.

Worried Mackinaw City business owners urge caution, going slow: 'We're scared'

Quote
A business owner who asked not to be identified out of concern his view might alienate customers, said recent customer interaction underscored his desire to remain closed.

"People were traveling when the governor didn't want people to travel," the business owner told the Free Press. "They were up here and said they were 'anti-quarantiners.' They said they 'don't believe in it.' That was a group of, like, five or six people in their 30s and 40s and they had a 5-year-old."

In another situation, a woman went into the Mackinaw City business and started coughing and hacking, then explained she had just finished a 79-hour work week at a grocery store in Grand Rapids.

"We just started wiping down everything that was touched," the business owner said Sunday. "And we can't do that all summer."

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #27 on: April 21, 2020, 12:42:06 PM »
I think we'll start to ease restrictions in May. Early, mid, late, I don't know. Maybe not everywhere, depending on the situation. But without widespread testing, it's not safe to. We're playing with fire. I have no idea how widespread the virus is in my area. Is is safe for me to go to the store? I have no data to work with, so I have to gamble.

So, we're going to be stupid. And the history books are going to ream the US for being stupid and getting however many people killed.

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #28 on: April 21, 2020, 12:43:05 PM »
I suspect that number of people encountered in a day may be just as important, possibly more important, than maintaining the 6 ft physical distance.  The lockdown stops transmission because people aren’t interacting with each other, so there is no chance to spread.

I think someone needs to look at things on a job by job basis, and figure out what things are the least risk to reopen, and how to minimize both how many people come within 6 ft and how many people each worker encounters in a day.

Also look at what causes the most harm if it is not reopened.  Resume elective surgeries.

The more people we can get back to work and the more small businesses we can save, the better it is for the economy.  It seems to me that 3 months is a reasonable amount of time to figure something out economically.

24andfrugal

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #29 on: April 21, 2020, 12:56:23 PM »
On NY/hot spots - yes and no. NYC and other large cities are having the problems they are because of population density - everyone is on top of each other, quite literally. There is some evidence to suggest that the MTA/public transportation exacerbated the spread. Many, many places in the US have "built-in" social distancing, simply because people are more spread out. You don't need to have regulations on how many people can be in the grocery store when there are only 10/15 people in the store on a normal day. It isn't reasonable to argue that everywhere will experience the same onslaught of cases that NYC did, because different places have different risk factors.

New York is special for many reasons in the US. I wouldn't be so quick to place full responsibility on its population density. There are a few reasons for this:
1. The neighborhoods hardest hit tend to be the least dense (they also tend to be the most impoverished) and have the highest car ownership per capita.
2. Cities *far* denser than NYC have handled this quite well. Cities like Singapore, Hong Kong, Seoul, etc. make NYC's density look like a joke, but have fewer covid cases per capita than the best states in the U.S.
3. While it's still a far cry from NY's levels, Detroit, a notoriously spread out city, is one of the worst hit, still gaining ~600 new cases daily.

There will no doubt be studies into what happened in NY. There will be lessons to be learned. Let's wait for that instead of making up rationalizations that don't really hold up to much scrutiny.

On economic depressions and death - if we see a permanent loss of jobs, particularly small businesses and those in the service sector, then we will see an exacerbation of many societal ills which do reduce quality of life and life expectancy. People forget that immediately following the Great Depression was a massive world war which sent many people to the front lines and many others to factories. I don't foresee a war following this pandemic, we will be simply trying to piece our way back to normal.

Do you have any basis to back this up? I'll provide more evidence: during the 2009 great recession, life expectancies also increased: https://www.sociology.ox.ac.uk/seminars/the-effect-of-the-great-recession-on-life-expectancy-in-the-u-s-and-the-u-k.html Recessions don't kill people. Viruses do. This argument is bunk.

And I cannot help but feel sad for those who are putting off cancer screenings, heart surgeries, knee replacements and other types of preventative care.

Aaaaabsolutely. For what it's worth, NY has just resumed elective surgeries. These were delayed because our hospitals were largely filled with covid patients. Now that this is easing up a bit, there's no reason non-urgent medical procedures can't resume.


I mean, when I talk about places that are more "spread out", I'm not talking about Queens, I'm talking about flyover country. I live in Connecticut currently and I wouldn't even call here "spread out".

Regarding elective surgeries, my understanding was that they weren't stopped to preserve hospital capacity but rather to prevent those patients from possibly coming into contact with Covid. Many procedures are outpatient; they don't require bed space, and ORs aren't easily converted into patient rooms.

As for life expectancy, I am talking more broadly about quality of life and the factors that impact it. Your link attributes rising life expectancy in part to "shifts in the causes of death away from those that are more prevalent among the young and middle-aged", but does not specify what those are (per the CDC, accidental injury is the leading cause of death up to age 44, with homicides and suicides ranking fairly highly as well). We know that suicides do increase during recessions, so it would appear that the increase in life expectancy can be at least partially attributable to decreases in accidental deaths. Ok...great?

We know that poverty is detrimental to health outcomes and is the driving force behind a lot of social problems. Though poverty is a complex issue, it is not helped by permanently destroying millions of jobs (some will come back, some will not). I'm not just talking about restaurants and retail, either. A significant share of colleges and universities were already teetering on the brink of collapse before any of this happened, for many this is the last straw. That not only puts all of those people out of work but further shrinks the pool of job opportunities for Ph.D. students. And that's just one industry. Ask anyone who graduated college in 2008/2009/2010 whether they feel their salaries are permanently stunted because of how the economy was when they were first starting out.

But way fewer people are dying in accidents, so life expectancy is up...whoop de do?

ixtap

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #30 on: April 21, 2020, 01:02:04 PM »
Elective procedures were also stopped to preserve PPE supplies and medical personnel.

This isn't a question of timelines. We have to wait and see. I think that is what is driving so many people crazy, but it is true.

24andfrugal

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #31 on: April 21, 2020, 01:11:58 PM »
Elective procedures were also stopped to preserve PPE supplies and medical personnel.

This isn't a question of timelines. We have to wait and see. I think that is what is driving so many people crazy, but it is true.

PPE yes, but medical personnel I am not so sure (perhaps you know better than I do). Many medical personnel have been furloughed/hours cut, as many are trained in a specific area with a skillset that cannot easily be applied to Covid needs. My MIL is a nurse, she was fortunate they had an opening on the phone lines for potential Covid patients otherwise she would have been furloughed as well.

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #32 on: April 21, 2020, 01:24:35 PM »
I’m not voting because it misses the best option: widespread testing and quarantining. Test everyone, those that have it get quarantined and isolated until they test negative. How long would that take? Anything less and basically you’re throwing up your hands and ensuring the deaths of millions, while making the US a permanent hotzone that no one else can enter until a vaccine is effective.

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #33 on: April 21, 2020, 04:57:00 PM »
Low-density, low-infection areas are ready to go now(not immediately full-open, but definitely starting to loosen things that aren't high-risk).  Places with high numbers of active infections it'll be a while.

High-density, low-infection areas pose a dilemma.  There's a very real risk of an explosion of cases in dense areas without any significant immune population as things open up.  Opening those areas up is going be extremely delicate and really doesn't work without robust testing.

The backdrop to all this is the uncertainty of vaccine development and the fact that the econnomy structurally can't take much beyond a few more weeks of this before lots of things implode.

Which is to say I chose "1-3 months", but the answer's much more complex than that.

Cranky

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #34 on: April 21, 2020, 05:19:11 PM »
Can restaurants and stores actually survive if they are limited to a third of their capacity?

John Galt incarnate!

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #35 on: April 21, 2020, 06:53:21 PM »
Deleted.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2020, 07:03:58 PM by John Galt incarnate! »

John Galt incarnate!

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #36 on: April 21, 2020, 07:02:01 PM »
Unpopular opinion:

I think most of the restrictions that have been put in place (USA) are uncomfortably authoritarian infringements of rights. For that reason I think they should be lifted. Rather than shuttering businesses, I think an effective way to mitigate risk might be to use something like a fire code (a "health code"?) to limit the occupancy of certain places, like restaurants and retail stores, on a temporary basis.

I think that many people, especially those high-risk, will simply not want to go out even if restrictions are lifted. Standing within 6 feet of a stranger will become a social faux pas akin to taking the adjacent urinal when all of them are available (so I am told...never had occasion to use a urinal ;) ).


I am supportive of the vast majority of restrictions that were issued pursuant to the police power of the States and their political subdivisions.


I am certain that a handful of restrictions ordered by governors and local officials are an overreaching, unconstitutional abuse of their police power.


In a challenge  to restrictions  issued by Kansas Governor Kelly, Federal Judge John Broomes ruled that “Plaintiffs have made a sufficient showing that a live controversy exists as to whether the Governor’s current restrictions on religious activity...violate Plaintiffs’ First Amendment right to freely exercise their religion."

 “Defendant has not argued that mass gatherings at churches pose unique health risks that do not arise in mass gatherings at airports, offices, and production facilities. Yet the exemption for religious activities has been eliminated while it remains for a multitude of activities that appear comparable in terms of health risks.”


Governor Kelly's  attorneys claimed that churches weren't singled out.

Judge Broomes was not persuaded.

“I don’t see how you can say that doesn’t target religion...when it is expressly aimed at religion. [You are] calling them out separately and that seems to be the issue here...You have picked and chosen who will get exceptions and what those exceptions will be.”

John Galt incarnate!

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #37 on: April 21, 2020, 07:10:37 PM »
Can restaurants and stores actually survive if they are limited to a third of their capacity?

I am afraid most restaurants definitely can't.

Maybe some stores can if they are very creative about rearranging their displays/shelving/merchandise, etc.


raincoast

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #38 on: April 21, 2020, 07:45:47 PM »
On NY/hot spots - yes and no. NYC and other large cities are having the problems they are because of population density - everyone is on top of each other, quite literally. There is some evidence to suggest that the MTA/public transportation exacerbated the spread. Many, many places in the US have "built-in" social distancing, simply because people are more spread out. You don't need to have regulations on how many people can be in the grocery store when there are only 10/15 people in the store on a normal day. It isn't reasonable to argue that everywhere will experience the same onslaught of cases that NYC did, because different places have different risk factors.

New York is special for many reasons in the US. I wouldn't be so quick to place full responsibility on its population density. There are a few reasons for this:
1. The neighborhoods hardest hit tend to be the least dense (they also tend to be the most impoverished) and have the highest car ownership per capita.
2. Cities *far* denser than NYC have handled this quite well. Cities like Singapore, Hong Kong, Seoul, etc. make NYC's density look like a joke, but have fewer covid cases per capita than the best states in the U.S.
3. While it's still a far cry from NY's levels, Detroit, a notoriously spread out city, is one of the worst hit, still gaining ~600 new cases daily.

There will no doubt be studies into what happened in NY. There will be lessons to be learned. Let's wait for that instead of making up rationalizations that don't really hold up to much scrutiny.


Density clearly isn't the only factor here. I live in a part of Vancouver that is one of the densest neighbourhoods in North America. We are two hours north of Seattle and, pre-pandemic, had many flights a day from China (at least 10, probably more). Our public transit was, until social distancing, frequently packed elbow-to-elbow at rush hour and we love our restaurants as much as NYC.

Six weeks into social distancing and almost three months after our first confirmed case (January 28), we have ~1,700 confirmed cases in a province of 5 million people, 87 dead (more than half long-term care residents, and no one under 40), and only 100 people in hospital. We have 4,000 empty hospital beds.

Some of this is luck. A lot of of this is aggressive testing and tracing, and quarantine of travellers. I suspect the problem in New York was that it spread uncontrollably in February, when very little testing was done. Apparently New York's first confirmed case was on March 1 - which probably says more about the state of testing in the city than about how much of the virus there was at that time. When things started shutting down around March 13, the information I could find suggested that Canada had tested more people for coronavirus than the entire USA, even though we have 1/10 the population. The US has almost caught up on a per capita basis, but our test positive rate is dramatically lower than yours.

Our public health officials are now talking about a way forward in mid-May that includes such measures as reopening restaurants at a reduced capacity with a heavy focus on patios, resuming scheduled surgeries, antibody testing, and letting some people return to their offices. Big events will still be cancelled. Basically they're trying to find a middle ground that people can tolerate, but that won't risk causing a huge spike in cases that overwhelms hospitals, and where people's total number of contacts are low enough that they can be tracked effectively. As long as it's still out there, many people will be scared enough to continue taking precautions that will limit the spread. No one here is talking seriously about some of the extreme measures being discussed in the USA, like testing almost the entire population or tracking everyone through their smartphones.

ice1717

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #39 on: April 22, 2020, 10:31:54 AM »
I see that stats from past depressions increasing life span, but is this the same?  This depression seems unique to me based on some of the following:

You would think traffic deaths are down, but they are actually up in my region.  Less traffic, but people are driving faster making crashes more lethal.  More death.

We've all seen articles about the "Covid-15" (gaining weight)... folks aren't eating healthier or exercising more.  Many are just ordering take out - either to help restaurants or because they would anyway -  and are staying more sedentary.  Worse Health...

Social interaction, shown to be good for mental health, is way down.  But hey to quote a different poster on another thread "Drink your problems away and call your sister".  Something tells me increasing alcohol and weed consumption to battle loneliness is bad for your health. 

People are afraid to go to the hospital or doctor.  How many medical conditions are getting worse or going undetected that would be caught in a more "normal" depression?

Telecaster

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #40 on: April 22, 2020, 01:10:13 PM »
And yet, I see no evidence of a nationwide move by the federal government to ramp up test production and coordinate with state and local governments to begin that process nationwide.

So, what I see going forward is sporadic attempts by states/localities to open up, then Covid surges in those areas, and then the need to close things back down again. Over and over, for months.

Good analysis.  Trump has said several times there will be no federal government testing and tracking program.   We need at least triple, more likely 20 times our current testing capacity to keep a lid on this thing.  States have limited budgets that are already decimated so any track and trace program will be woefully inadequate.  Therefore our economy will be negatively impacted for far longer than necessary. 


skp

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #41 on: April 22, 2020, 02:00:29 PM »
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ap-norc-poll-few-americans-support-easing-virus-protections/ar-BB132Vjg?ocid=spartanntp

I just read this and find it questionable.  This survey seems to me to contradict  this poll on what seems to me a quite liberal web site.   Thoughts?
« Last Edit: April 22, 2020, 02:04:04 PM by skp »

Telecaster

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #42 on: April 22, 2020, 06:47:49 PM »
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ap-norc-poll-few-americans-support-easing-virus-protections/ar-BB132Vjg?ocid=spartanntp

I just read this and find it questionable.  This survey seems to me to contradict  this poll on what seems to me a quite liberal web site.   Thoughts?

The poll on this site isn't in any way scientific and definitely not representative of the US population as a whole. 

ixtap

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #43 on: April 22, 2020, 06:54:41 PM »
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ap-norc-poll-few-americans-support-easing-virus-protections/ar-BB132Vjg?ocid=spartanntp

I just read this and find it questionable.  This survey seems to me to contradict  this poll on what seems to me a quite liberal web site.   Thoughts?

Most of the posters here  have said the poll here doesn't actually deal with any realistic options and have refused to answer it.

middo

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #44 on: April 22, 2020, 06:59:35 PM »
Probably a different perspective from most of those here, but as an Australian, I think that a lockdown and widespread testing until everyone is found to no longer have the virus is necessary.  Is that possible in the US?  I don't know.  It is possible in Australia and New Zealand.

The reality is that any easing of restrictions is going to lead to a spread of the virus.  It currently kills somewhere between 1 and 2% of people it infects.  Easing restrictions = more deaths.  Potentially a lot more deaths.

There also seems to be a belief that people will become immune to Covid-19 once they have recovered from the disease.  There is no proof of that yet, and past coronavirus and upper respiratory tract infections information suggests that any immunity may be short lived.  This is not like the seasonal flu.  It kills a much higher percentage of people that the flu.

As an Australian, I am resigned to not being able to travel overseas for the foreseeable future.  I may be able to travel to NZ and some of the Pacific Islands, which will form a virus free bubble.  I am content with this outcome in some senses, but disappointed that the rest of the world couldn't have the vision to eradicate the virus early.

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #45 on: April 22, 2020, 07:04:25 PM »
I voted for 4, but that lacks nuisance.

I want government officials to modulate the infection rate to be as high as it can be without overwhelming hospitals, which might mean no sporting events or concerts until we have a vaccine.

PDXTabs

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #46 on: April 22, 2020, 07:30:43 PM »
The cloth masks are great if you are the one infected.

Did you see Hong Kong during SARs? Everyone wore surgical masks to protect everyone else.

The N95 masks are only 95% effective and the virus is right on the size range the mask doesn't stop. It will depend on the exact size of that particular virus if it will be stopped.

That's not true. Actual droplets that the virus is likely to be in are usually quoted as being ~5 microns, plenty large enough for an N95 to stop.

PDXTabs

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #47 on: April 22, 2020, 07:47:58 PM »
You would think traffic deaths are down, but they are actually up in my region.  Less traffic, but people are driving faster making crashes more lethal.  More death.

Wow, where do you live? Oregon is down 37% for the year.

Villanelle

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #48 on: April 22, 2020, 08:25:36 PM »
I think it is going to be a series of steps, so I can't answer the poll.  Different regions, different infection rates, different industries... a blanket opening seems ill-advised (pun intended!) no matter the timing, unless maybe we are talking many months or even a year+ from now.  And even within that context, we may have to take steps back, especially if we want to be aggressive with the steps forward. 

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Re: Poll: Opinion on how long Lockdown must last
« Reply #49 on: April 22, 2020, 08:30:46 PM »
As with most polls, I don't like the choices and the additional commentary with each one.

I won't bother speculating on the number of months, but I think it's a long hard road ahead.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!