LOL. I never doubted there was going to be a recession. I'm also not surprised about a temporary hike in the S&P 500 over a few days, but it's temporary, because the far worst of the coronavirus effect is yet to hit the country causing much greater economic damange, and I fully expect another big drop in the S&P 500 below the recent low.
It's been a couple months, when is that drop you're expecting going to happen?
The stock market is pricing in a V-shaped super fast recovery, more stimulus, low rates, a fast vaccine, a fast return to full employment, supply chain returns to normal, etc. If the market's optimism is justified it may never drop or continue up. In 2006 I was in Florida - ground zero of the housing bust and it seemed real bad here with people walking away from houses, etc. but stock prices kept going up for over a year before the market dropped 50%. I don't know if we will see that type of delayed reaction this time but I share the skeptism that things are as good as the market is pricing.
At the same time I am not declaring when or even IF the market will drop because we all know even the experts are often wrong about that. One common technical definition of depression is negative 10% GDP growth and I would be shocked if we didn't already hit that #. To me it seems crazy to not to consider/believe this is an unprecedented and there are significant stock market risks right now.
If you want to come and remind people they are wrong you should definitely give it more time, because the market was very slow to react last time around and just like now there was no shortage of people predicting a continued boom right before stocks crashed in 2007.
From a very long-term perspective we can be almost certain stocks will be up 20 years from now. The only time that didn't happen was the great depression and that seems very very unlikely.