New (used) care or high cost repair 2002 Ranger?

[ak907]

I have 2002 4 cyl Ford Ranger with ~110,000 miles. I have gotten a lifetime average of about 25.5 miles per gallon out of it and overall it has been pretty reliable except for one expensive issue that has cropped up again.

The slave cylinder for the clutch seems to fail around 40 thousand-60 thousand miles. It cost me around ~$1500 to ~$1800 6 years ago or so to fix this issue so I expect it to be at least $2000 this time (inflation plus higher COL area). The truck is only worth about $2500-3000 Kelly blue book, so I am not sure if its worth it to get this problem fixed. Particularly as it seems guaranteed to crop up again, and adds about 4 cents to my per mile cost.

While I have gotten more proficient in doing a lot of my own car work this repair requires dropping the transmission, not something I think I am up to.


The alternative is to buy something used and mustashian, I was thinking about a Mazda 3 hatchback 4 cyl skyactive. Is there an up to date list of mustashian cars?

also: yes for now i need a car

[franklin w. dixon]

This is a question that's near and dear! I have a 2002 Nissan Frontier 4-cyl with 133k that averages 26mpg and I can almost guarantee that repair is a better choice. Suppose you buy a 2012 Mazda 3 with the powertrain you indicate, which is rated at 32 mpg (which I'll compare to 25 mpg in your truck). The car will cost something like $12,000, less the value of your truck ($3000).

It's necessary to make some hazy assumptions about maintenance and the future price of gasoline. Let's say you save $.05 per mile on maintenance and repairs by buying the newer car, and that gasoline costs $3.00 per gallon. That's a total savings of 7.625 cents per mile. In other words, you'll have to drive 118,000 miles, or an entire decade to break even. And this doesn't even include the sales tax on a $12,000 purchase, or the likely difference in insurance cost, or the opportunity cost of investing the $9000 now (or $7,000, once you pay for the $2000 repair).

As a rule of thumb, repair is almost always a better choice than replacement, until one of a few things happen:

1. The frame is warped or rusted through, and repair is impossible.
2. The car is so old or unusual that you can't find spare parts and repair is exorbitantly expensive (25+ years?).
3. Fuel mileage is truly, truly terrible compared to the replacement (if you were getting 12 mpg in your current car, the payback mileage would be 44,000, and therefore a bit more palatable).

There are also a couple things to hold in the back of your head which are speculative but could make plowing into a 10-year payback an even more foolish:

1. The chance that gas prices remain low, which means the payback mileage is higher.
2. The chance that electric vehicles become affordable and offer a far greater fuel cost savings (instead of going from 25 to 32 mpg you can go from 25 to 100+ mpg cost equivalent).
3. The chance that anything happens in the next 10 years to reduce or eliminate your need for a car.

[RWD]

If you don't need a truck then it's probably worth replacing it with a efficient car. Check fueleconomy.gov to find the most fuel efficient vehicles that meet your criteria and then cross-reference with TrueDelta for reliability info.

Top picks are likely Toyota Yaris, Honda Fit, Mazda 3, and Toyota Matrix/Pontiac Vibe.

[Sid Hoffman]

How many miles a year do you drive, or more to the point: how many do you expect to drive over the next 10 years?  That plays a huge role in determining what makes the most sense.  As a general rule, the more miles you drive, the more sense it makes to buy newish cars, where you get the best fuel economy and lowest cost of repairs.  However if you drive few miles, then buying used, even if it means a less fuel efficient car, will likely be the better option as cars depreciate based on age, not just mileage, yet the majority of repairs are mileage based, not age-based.

[ak907]

Thanks Franklin, that gets me started on the analysis I should do in excel. My concern with it being an older car is that this is hardly the only costly repair/maintenance I am looking at in the future. And it would only take a few to tip the balance.

Sid I drive ~ 12,000 miles a year currently.

[ak907]

hmm did a quick spread sheet and it looks like the approximate break even point of current vs new, assuming this repair plus it needing to be done every 50,000 plus two more $1000 dollar repairs, is about $10,000 on the new car, assuming it only needs $1000 of repairs in the first 2 years.


ugly paste of spreadsheet:
   Miles per year   14,000      Persistent Repair cost      $2,000.00      
   Years   2      Miles to recurrence      50,000      
   Price of gas   $3.00                  
                        
Vehicle   Value at start   Avg. MPG   Repair costs   Current miles      Total Cost   Accounting for future value of $ for new car   Miles
Current - 2002 Ford Ranger   $3,000.00   25.5   $5,120.00   110,000      $11,414.12   $12,377.19   138,000
Mazda 3   $13,000.00   37   $1,000.00   0      $16,270.27   $18,715.57   28,000
hypothetical   $7,000.00   33   $2,000.00   25,000      $11,545.45   $12,862.15   53,000
                        
               Difference   -$4,856.15   -$6,338.38   
                  -$131.34   -$484.96   

[Forcus]

Let me save you a whole lot of money.

Find a new shop, and insist they use factory parts.

The parts store stuff in this particular instance is not very good. The big brand is Cardone. I use Cardone for some stuff but where it's an expensive repair (if you have to remove the transmission, and a leak could damage the clutch) I only use the best possible and that is new, not rebuilt, and is generally factory parts.

1500-1600 is WAY too much for just a slave cylinder replacement. Now if it was clutch replacement, slave cylinder replacement, flywheel resurfacing, etc., then maybe. I would expect it to be around $600 at most with just a slave cylinder, it's not a hard or long job with a car lift.

I'd go so far as to actually buy the part and bring it to whatever shop. That still doesn't guarantee they won't keep it and slap in a parts store part, but I don't know what else you can do short of actually watching them do the work.

Bottom line, you shouldn't have to replace it every two years and it shouldn't be $2k to replace either.

[Sid Hoffman]

hmm did a quick spread sheet and it looks like the approximate break even point of current vs new, assuming this repair plus it needing to be done every 50,000 plus two more $1000 dollar repairs, is about $10,000 on the new car, assuming it only needs $1000 of repairs in the first 2 years.

This confuses me.  Why would you only be looking at a 2-year view instead of a 10-year view?  Are you just looking to delay replacing your vehicle for 2 years?  If so, I totally get that, as I have a dump of a 1997 Ford that I'd love to get rid of, but I have some other financial goals I want to achieve in the mean time and would rather replace my car in spring 2016 if I could get it to last that long without totally falling apart or costing a fortune in repairs.  Otherwise a newer vehicle looks generally more attractive because of the improved gas mileage and likely lower repair costs.

I can't tell what you were trying to show in the comparison either because it comes out as a jumble.  You'd need to either take a screen capture and post it as an image or else use the "code" feature of the forum.  See below.  You might have to do a reply with quote in order to see how to use the "code" feature.  I had to format it in notepad first, since that uses a fixed width font.

Code: [Select]

Date            Miles   Tot Min  Mov Min  Mov Avg  Ovrl   Avg Vmax
8/12/2007       14.37   95       82       10.6     9.1    18.4
8/14/2007       12.40   74       66       11.3     10.1   16.2


[ak907]

Forcus:
The shop that did the work previously is not the shop that would be doing the work now. I trust both shops. Yes there is much more involved than the slave cylinder since when it goes it it sprays down the clutch with brake fluid. As a result its slave cylinder, clutch plates, brake fluid (cheap), and I think tranny fluid  plus maybe a few other things. labor makes up most the cost.
Last replacement was of the original part with oem parts. Tried calling Ford and some parts shops but they had no advice, hadn't heard of the issue, but you can find it pretty easy online in the first few search results.

I used the 2 year value for what I pasted as things look much better using a 10 year value. 2 year shows me what I am out in the short term. For reference I have posted below the 10 year version.



ugly paste 2:

Code: [Select]

Miles per year 14,000 Persistent Repair cost $2,000.00
Years 10 Miles to recurrence 50,000
Price of gas $3.00

Vehicle Value at start Avg. MPG Repair costs Current miles Total Cost Accounting for future value of $ for new car Miles
Ford Ranger $3,000.00 25.5 $10,100.00 110,000 $29,570.59 $43,380.96 250,000
Mazda 3       $13,000.00 37 $1,000.00 0 $25,351.35 $43,127.08 140,000
hypothetical $7,000.00 33 $2,000.00 25,000 $21,727.27 $31,298.82 165,000

                    Difference $4,219.24 $253.88
                                $7,843.32 $12,082.14

[Forcus]

I used the 2 year value for what I pasted as things look much better using a 10 year value. 2 year shows me what I am out in the short term. For reference I have posted below the 10 year version.

I might have missed it, but did you account for depreciation? A 2002 Ranger that is worth $3k now is not going to be worth that much less no matter how many miles you pile on it. Using a 2 year view, maybe losing only $500 in value, a 10 year view, maybe $1500 in value, whereas the Mazda will obviously lose more because there is more to lose.

Also, I'm assuming no matter what you are going to have to eat that first $2k repair (that is, the one now) because the Ranger will be a hard sell at more than $1k if it needs the clutch work (maybe $2k.... but at least around here around Xmas no one has any money).

Sorry to hear that it was a Ford part that failed. I've seen stories like yours but its usually with the reman parts. The Mazda 3 is a good alternate choice too I just wouldn't give up on the old girl yet unless you are just ready to move on and the $ allows it.

[Sid Hoffman]

There are so many "it depends" with cars that it's hard to know sometimes.  An element we never talk about on this forum but is very much real is auto injury rates.  Older vehicles do not provide the same level of injury protection as newer vehicles.  Injury affects your well being, your ability to produce income, and if there wasn't sufficient insurance to cover your medical care, it affects your savings too.  Injuries are very much "it depends" too, especially since they are based on statistical probability with 100% of the population believing they won't be in the 1% seriously injured in an auto wreck next year.

Again, I feel in a similar situation with my 97 Ford.  I know it's unreliable, I know it's expensive to fix, and I know it's not a very safe car.  I also don't want to have to spend money buying a new car when I am so close to achieving one of my major financial goals as long as I don't drop thousands of dollars on either repairs or a new car and set myself back potentially to 2016.  I'd rather achieve my financial goal then buy a new (used) car in 2016 instead, but I don't know if it will end up working out that way.  I drive fewer miles so I have some more flexibility but it's still frustrating since it's not concrete math the way a loan amortization schedule is.

[ak907]

Sid - good point on safety, something I will have to keep in mind

I was kinda hoping I could get a dealership to take the thing before they noticed, its not something you can find without knowing how it should feel or taking the tranny down. That being said probably would come back at me lol.

I have decided to go ahead and eat the repair and keep rolling the old truck :).