IOW, there's no more reason to think we'll be less affected by inflation than there is to think we'll be more affected.
Bingo.
I've never heard a coherent reason oh how or why one can or would be subject to less inflation.
All the arguments people tend to put forth on that are arguments for how to reduce spending, but not why they'll see less inflation on the things they do spend money on, which I think you'd need a crystal ball for.
Re: coherent argument for/against one being more/less affected by inflation:
The argument I want to see is inflation-index items that actually apply to me. What is
their rate of inflation?
Inflation averages a given rate annually (5% is a rate I think I've seen a lot). That rate of inflation is based on the CPI, right? The CPI is based on a set proportion of eight categories (and their sub-categories):
FOOD AND BEVERAGES (breakfast cereal, milk, coffee, chicken, wine, full service meals, snacks)
HOUSING (rent of primary residence, owners' equivalent rent, fuel oil, bedroom furniture)
APPAREL (men's shirts and sweaters, women's dresses, jewelry)
TRANSPORTATION (new vehicles, airline fares, gasoline, motor vehicle insurance)
MEDICAL CARE (prescription drugs and medical supplies, physicians' services, eyeglasses and eye care, hospital services)
RECREATION (televisions, toys, pets and pet products, sports equipment, admissions);
EDUCATION AND COMMUNICATION (college tuition, postage, telephone services, computer software and accessories);
OTHER GOODS AND SERVICES (tobacco and smoking products, haircuts and other personal services, funeral expenses).
Here's my question: The CPI is an average, which is great. But on an individual level, given my particular life/financial circumstances, I don't participate in a goodly portion of those categories, or significant portions of their sub-categories. Should I still be assuming a 5% average rate of inflation?
For examples,
We don't eat out or drink alcohol, but that's 5% of the CPI basket in the FOOD category.
We own our home outright, so we don't pay rent or mortgage or OER, but that's 24% of the CPI in the HOUSING category.
We don't buy new vehicles or lease them, but that's almost 4% in the TRANS category.
We don't have pets or watch TV, but that's 2.5% of the CPI in the RECREATION category.
Etc., etc., etc.
If I calculated the inflation rate based on the things we actually spend money on,
will it be closer to zero, or closer to 5%?. The data is there....Is there any way to calculate this, short of tediously hand-comparing ALL the tiny numbers in the BLS spreadsheets? I wish there was a form/calculator for this.