I correctly predicted last week that oil would go up in response to Israel invading Lebanon. I purchased 100 shares of USO with some spare traditional IRA cash, at $69.44/share.
USO is now $75.92 but as
@reeshau helpfully pointed out, it is possible to have to receive a K1 from the USO partnership if > $1,000 in gains can be attribute to you as a stockholder, even if it is in an IRA.
I already receive a K1 each year due to a real estate partnership, so getting another K1 wouldn't force me to upgrade to the next level on my tax preparation website. It's literally just pressing some buttons to make money. Worst thing that could happen is the K1 delays my tax filing.
Yet I'm letting this tiny detail influence my decision of whether to hold or sell. This fund pays no dividends and the price closely follows NAV, so in theory I should have less than $1,000 in partnership profits attributable to me if I sell for about $950 in capital gains. That would be a limit order around $78.94, a price which could arrive within days. I'm currently up $648 on the speculation.
Additionally, and irrationally, I have some hindsight regrets about not just using bullish options plays to track USO. This thought influenced me to sell a covered call on my 100 USO shares yesterday, and it's now underwater of course, though I will probably roll it to next Wednesday later today because the time decay is amazing. However this would open up the problem of what happens if USO hits my exit price on Monday and I have an underwater short call I originally planned to hold till Wednesday!
Yet without these thoughts influencing me, I might hold USO for an even bigger pop. The Lebanon war will be at least as bad as Gaza - probably worse since Hezbollah is so much bigger and well resourced than Hamas, and is not trapped in an enclave with no hope of supply lines like Hamas was. If that's my thesis, why don't I hold USO anyway? This fund has hit $81 three times in the past 12 months.
TL;DR - I'm about to earn 13.5% within two weeks but detect irrational thought processes about my exit strategy.