And the same ugly arguments come up again.
Eleven thousand serious injuries per 200 million miles implies that we're looking at about a 0.055% chance of injury on a given ten-mile ride, versus about a 0.000215% chance on a given ten-mile drive. So add a zero, and we find that per mile, cycling is actually about 0.00054785% more risky per mile.
That's the true reflection of the danger involved per mile. But what happens if we correct for journey distance? Or for the fact that motorway driving, which bike commuters will still be using a car for, accounts for a full third of all miles driven (in the UK at least) but only 9% of accidents?
And because this thread has been sorely in need of some actual hard, referenced data:
https://www.bmj.com/content/357/bmj.j1456?tab=related#datasupp
The interesting stuff:
-The researchers followed a quarter of a million people to assess the health outcomes of different modes of commuting.
-Cycling was positively correlated with a lower risk of both cardiovascular disease and cancer, AND for all-cause mortality. In other words, cycling in the UK at least is objectively associated with strongly positive health outcomes.
Or how about this:
https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/abs/10.2105/AJPH.2015.302724?url_ver=Z39.88-2003&rfr_id=ori%3Arid%3Acrossref.org&rfr_dat=cr_pub%3Dpubmed
The key findings there? That cycle commuting prevents about six and a half thousand deaths a year in Holland, and adds about six months to Dutch life expectancy. SIX MONTHS.
As humans, we are genetically hardwired to assess risk poorly. Cycling to and from work is one of the most positive things the average person can do for their health if they live within biking range. All the fear and worry in the world doesn't change that.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm off to ride to the shops.
I too am just blown away by people looking at half the argument, piss poor interpretation of stats, and the "from my cold dead hands" attitude towards the suggestion of giving up their cars.
People who became millionaires from games of chance were orders of magnitude more likely to have played the lottery. In fact, there was almost a direct correlation between the number of tickets bought, and the likelihood of becoming a millionaire. Therefore I think it's safe and obvious that if you want to become a millionaire, play the lottery, and buy as many tickets as you can.
I think runbikerun might be the only person on this entire forum that gets it. According to
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_volcanic_eruptions_by_death_toll 1 person has died from volcanoes in Iceland. over 125
thousand have died in Indonesia. Literally you have 125000 times the likelihood of dying from an eruption in Indonesia as Iceland. Forget 17x and the bike car argument, volcanoes are the real risky killer.
That's the whole point of the safety is an expensive illusion. Airlines are the perfect example. Even if there was a 9/11 attack monthly, it would still kill less people than driving, but having 1 in 100 years was enough to increase security spending by a huge factor. You're odds of dying from terrorism are 1 in 3.64 million, but too high! Too Dangerous! Spend thousands of dollars to make it lower!
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/you-re-more-likely-die-choking-be-killed-foreign-terrorists-n715141At the same time, your odds of dying from heart disease, cancer, health issues, are non trivial in the order of actual percents! People here are worried about reducing 1/10,000 to 1/1,1000 while ignoring the real risk health issues pose. Great job. You reduced your cumulative transport + health risk from 10.002% to 10.0015%.
People say they do everything they can to reduce risk. Do you have a personal driver? Studies show professionals have an order of magnitude less accidents. You can further decrease your risk by a factor of 10. 10 is a huge number.
You've reduced your lifetime odds of dying from 1/5000 or essentially 0, to 1/50000, or essentially 0. Was that worth increasing your commuting cost by a factor of 10?
People need to look at the whole package like the studies above. You're more likely to die on a per mile basis, but you're also likely to improve health, save money, help the environment.
As a whole what are the key differences between biking and driving? What results could an average person expect? It's not enough to say you're more likely to die biking as it isn't enough to say you're more likely to be a millionaire playing lotto.