I'm surprised I haven't seen any discussion of the Rising Equities Glidepath.
I brought this up as well, (look for my name in this thread). I suspect that having a 50% to 70% bond allocation at the start of retirement is a radical position for this forum (even though it is pretty routine among normal retirees).
FIRE 20/20, I note that your intention is to retire in 2019, would you mind sharing what your asset allocation is? What percent of your assets are currently in bonds? Will you grow this in the next year before retirement? How do you feel about seeing double digit percent growth in stocks if you have significant bond allocation? Sorry for the personal questions, but I have not found anyone else that is pursuing this strategy. Best wishes, ap.
Sorry I missed your post.
My asset allocation is 60% stocks, 40% bonds. This is not in Kitces' sweet spot, but he makes some simplifying assumptions (related to future income like SS, pensions, inheritance, and part time work) that don't apply to me. I don't know if I will adjust the allocation before retirement. I just learned about Kitces' work in this area about a year ago, and I waited until around March or April of this year to make the move. I was hesitant to change my approach significantly until I had thought it through and done more research. After doing that research, making a lot of CFireSim runs on my own, and talking about goals with my partner, etc. we decided to make the move.
As for the question about how I'll feel when we see double digit percentage growth in stocks, I'm ok with that. The way I see it, I'm making the best decision I can given the information I have. Based on the analysis I have done, a rising equities glidepath reduces the chances of the worst possible outcome (sequence of returns risk) while taking as its price a reduction in something I don't care about (maximum peak wealth at the end). Part of the reason I am confident in maintaining my equanimity is that most of my career has included analysis of stochastic processes via modeling and simulation. It's not in the area of finance, but I think it's given me a comfort level in making decisions when the future outcome is determined in large part by randomness (or at least unpredictability). At work I often make the best possible decision given the available data but still see the undesirable outcome occur. I think that experience allows me to view my finances somewhat dispassionately.