Author Topic: Is it just me, or does traffic/posting here go way down when the market falls?  (Read 2259 times)

DeskJockey2028

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It seems like the number of posts and responses has dropped pretty sharply over the past few days, at the same time the market's taken a little stumble. It could just be a bit of selection bias on my part, but I seem to remember this happening during other market dips too.

Anyone else see this regularly? I normally wouldn't notice but it's been slow at work lately and I've been wanting to see more content here, but not getting it! :)

FIRE Artist

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Interesting observation, I, for one at least, am an exception to that rule.  I havenít checked the forum in weeks and only thought to do so today because of the markets. 

Slee_stack

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Hadn't noticed but posting here to dispute my own personal correlation.

As an aside, I am horrible at this market timing thing...no lump of cash sitting around to invest.  Go figure.

Eric

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DS

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Seems pretty high *shrug*

mxt0133

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You might be onto something OP, but I personally check the forums on a regular basis because I like to read threads not just on when people are able to FIRE but about ideas on how to achieve FIRE quicker while also living a balanced life that doesn't depend on one achieving FIRE.

On a similar note, I don't see any more Crypto millionaire posts.  I would love to get updates from posters that did not cash out and held on in hopes of their gambles (not investments) increasing.

marty998

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After 6 years here I have nothing more really to say lol.

seattlecyclone

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The market went down recently?

Paul der Krake

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Eric

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The market went down recently?

Yes.  It also went up recently, just not as recent as down.

2Birds1Stone

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The market went down recently?

I heard somewhere on here that the top was in.

ambimammular

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I stop checking Mint and Vanguard if things have really dropped. Denial, I suppose. I wouldn't want to do something rash anyway.

chasesfish

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After 6 years here I have nothing more really to say lol.

This is me as well...

I also wonder if overall visits/message board activity is down with Pete posting less

legalstache

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I can't say one way or the other but I do wonder how much the general run up in the stock market the last 6+ years has gotten people thinking about FI (especially since I imagine a lot of us are heavily invested in equities).

solon

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I wonder if Pete makes less in ad revenue when posting goes down?

Arbitrage

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I can't say one way or the other but I do wonder how much the general run up in the stock market the last 6+ years has gotten people thinking about FI (especially since I imagine a lot of us are heavily invested in equities).

My personal feeling is that there will be a bit of a 'culling of the herd' when we see a true bear market.  The FI movement, at least as more than a niche, hasn't really had to deal with one, and trends very aggressive with investments (what are bonds?).  A bear market is one thing to endure when you're early in accumulation; it's something else when you are early in FIRE or were 1-2 years away, and suddenly you've lost several hundred thousand dollars.  Many people will be fine with it.  I suspect that some others will not be.

Even MMM didn't really - though he retired shortly before 2008, didn't need to touch his investments due to his wife's part-time work and rental income, so it wasn't a big deal.  He also does hold bonds.  If you don't have a similar plan to buffer against losses/sequence of returns risk, watch out.

I have my own coping mechanism of dealing with market crashes.  I check and update my accounts much less frequently; I only look closely when I'm nearing a rebalancing band and need to shift things around.  Otherwise, I tune out the noise and trust in my asset allocation/IPS. 

Arbitrage

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You could always go check Bogleheads.  Any time there's a bad day/series of days, the classic "Markets in Free Fall" thread is resurrected.  That thread was started in 2011, when we were a hair's breadth away from a bear market (people seem to forget that these days). 

jim555

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All the interest in the FI movement lately is a top indicator.

Thedividebyzero

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Maybe everyone is out shopping for bargains?
« Reply #18 on: October 11, 2018, 04:01:28 PM »
Maybe everyone is out shopping for bargains?  :)

Brother Esau

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Top is in!!

Bateaux

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If the market goes up, I come here to gloat. 
If the market goes down, I come here to bitch.

marty998

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I can't say one way or the other but I do wonder how much the general run up in the stock market the last 6+ years has gotten people thinking about FI (especially since I imagine a lot of us are heavily invested in equities).

My personal feeling is that there will be a bit of a 'culling of the herd' when we see a true bear market.  The FI movement, at least as more than a niche, hasn't really had to deal with one, and trends very aggressive with investments (what are bonds?).  A bear market is one thing to endure when you're early in accumulation; it's something else when you are early in FIRE or were 1-2 years away, and suddenly you've lost several hundred thousand dollars.  Many people will be fine with it.  I suspect that some others will not be.

Even MMM didn't really - though he retired shortly before 2008, didn't need to touch his investments due to his wife's part-time work and rental income, so it wasn't a big deal.  He also does hold bonds.  If you don't have a similar plan to buffer against losses/sequence of returns risk, watch out.

I have my own coping mechanism of dealing with market crashes.  I check and update my accounts much less frequently; I only look closely when I'm nearing a rebalancing band and need to shift things around.  Otherwise, I tune out the noise and trust in my asset allocation/IPS. 


Agree with all of this. Good post.

Top is in!!

This isn't funny anymore, at least not outside that other thread. It actually disgusts me how flippant some people on this board are when markets start falling or when economic times are difficult. People's lives can be effected in profound ways through unemployment or businesses failing, or if they are the victim of predatory financial practices which tend to happen when people are chasing that last little bit of growth at the end. Falling markets can present buying opportunities, but please don't be smugly satisfied by it.

Never forget there is a human factor to every change that occurs in the economy.

Unique User

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I can't say one way or the other but I do wonder how much the general run up in the stock market the last 6+ years has gotten people thinking about FI (especially since I imagine a lot of us are heavily invested in equities).

My personal feeling is that there will be a bit of a 'culling of the herd' when we see a true bear market.  The FI movement, at least as more than a niche, hasn't really had to deal with one, and trends very aggressive with investments (what are bonds?).  A bear market is one thing to endure when you're early in accumulation; it's something else when you are early in FIRE or were 1-2 years away, and suddenly you've lost several hundred thousand dollars.  Many people will be fine with it.  I suspect that some others will not be.

Even MMM didn't really - though he retired shortly before 2008, didn't need to touch his investments due to his wife's part-time work and rental income, so it wasn't a big deal.  He also does hold bonds.  If you don't have a similar plan to buffer against losses/sequence of returns risk, watch out.

I have my own coping mechanism of dealing with market crashes.  I check and update my accounts much less frequently; I only look closely when I'm nearing a rebalancing band and need to shift things around.  Otherwise, I tune out the noise and trust in my asset allocation/IPS.

In 2008, 2009 I didn't even open statements, I just shredded them without opening.  I wonder how many end of 2018 FIRE planners will put off their dates if the market continues to drop.   

chasesfish

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I wonder if Pete makes less in ad revenue when posting goes down?
Yes, less views on that one little google ad banner.

The good thing about being financially independent is not caring

Fomerly known as something

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I can't say one way or the other but I do wonder how much the general run up in the stock market the last 6+ years has gotten people thinking about FI (especially since I imagine a lot of us are heavily invested in equities).

My personal feeling is that there will be a bit of a 'culling of the herd' when we see a true bear market.  The FI movement, at least as more than a niche, hasn't really had to deal with one, and trends very aggressive with investments (what are bonds?).  A bear market is one thing to endure when you're early in accumulation; it's something else when you are early in FIRE or were 1-2 years away, and suddenly you've lost several hundred thousand dollars.  Many people will be fine with it.  I suspect that some others will not be.

Even MMM didn't really - though he retired shortly before 2008, didn't need to touch his investments due to his wife's part-time work and rental income, so it wasn't a big deal.  He also does hold bonds.  If you don't have a similar plan to buffer against losses/sequence of returns risk, watch out.

I have my own coping mechanism of dealing with market crashes.  I check and update my accounts much less frequently; I only look closely when I'm nearing a rebalancing band and need to shift things around.  Otherwise, I tune out the noise and trust in my asset allocation/IPS. 


Agree with all of this. Good post.

Top is in!!

This isn't funny anymore, at least not outside that other thread. It actually disgusts me how flippant some people on this board are when markets start falling or when economic times are difficult. People's lives can be effected in profound ways through unemployment or businesses failing, or if they are the victim of predatory financial practices which tend to happen when people are chasing that last little bit of growth at the end. Falling markets can present buying opportunities, but please don't be smugly satisfied by it.

Never forget there is a human factor to every change that occurs in the economy.

Funny, I don't see that thread that way.  I see that thread as a reminder not to panic when things cycle to the downside and that one cannot predict when the economy cycles back to a recession.  Even defining a recession is something done based on past data, not present.  I don't see that thread as anything but a reminder to stay on the course based on your personal circumstances and not based on anything the "market" is doing.

ETA:  The problem with a forum is that one does not have specific conversations with specific people.  I do not speak about the economy the same way to my Aunt who works in a low skill job and has struggled since my Uncle passed away from cancer at the age of 53 as I speak with my parents who are retired with 2 stable pensions.  They have different economic lives.  In person, I can acknowledge the difference, on a forum I cannot.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2018, 05:43:40 AM by Fomerly known as something »

MrOnyx

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Something I'm considering is using a password manager to generate random passwords that are impossible for me to remember, then copy and paste those passwords into digital notes here and there.

The idea being that this makes it that little bit harder to log in to your investment accounts - you have to enter the password for your manager first, or have access to those digital notes you made. I find I'm much less likely to log into things that have such scrambled passwords, and logging into our investment accounts is not a good idea right now.

Just throwing this out there in case someone may find it helpful! Just be careful not to 'lose' or 'forget' those passwords if you do do this; they'll be a bit harder to recover, I'd say.

DeskJockey2028

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When I first came here a few years back and kicked everything off, I was here all day long, mostly reading and absorbing. I'd check my net worth and investment accounts daily. But now that it's been 2+ years of doing this, I'm starting to peter out on new things to read and new ideas to absorb. I've optimized a whole bunch (and continue to make little tweaks now and again). Mostly I'm here when my work day is slow now. Which it truly was yesterday.

What I did notice with this forum has less to do with the number of daily visitors and more to do with the number of new posts, or posts newly commented on. A month ago I was seeing the entire front page of the General Discussion commented on in the past 24 hours. Now there are posts there that haven't been updated in over 2 days. Just a little observation.


I can't say one way or the other but I do wonder how much the general run up in the stock market the last 6+ years has gotten people thinking about FI (especially since I imagine a lot of us are heavily invested in equities).

My personal feeling is that there will be a bit of a 'culling of the herd' when we see a true bear market.  The FI movement, at least as more than a niche, hasn't really had to deal with one, and trends very aggressive with investments (what are bonds?).  A bear market is one thing to endure when you're early in accumulation; it's something else when you are early in FIRE or were 1-2 years away, and suddenly you've lost several hundred thousand dollars.  Many people will be fine with it.  I suspect that some others will not be.

Even MMM didn't really - though he retired shortly before 2008, didn't need to touch his investments due to his wife's part-time work and rental income, so it wasn't a big deal.  He also does hold bonds.  If you don't have a similar plan to buffer against losses/sequence of returns risk, watch out.

I have my own coping mechanism of dealing with market crashes.  I check and update my accounts much less frequently; I only look closely when I'm nearing a rebalancing band and need to shift things around.  Otherwise, I tune out the noise and trust in my asset allocation/IPS.

ender

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Do I win if I didn't realize the market had gone up so much that when it falls that it's still way up from when I last really checked?

DeskJockey2028

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Yes! I award you one wooden nickle.

Do I win if I didn't realize the market had gone up so much that when it falls that it's still way up from when I last really checked?

Villanelle

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I have a lot more invested (both because of time and because I got far more serious about investing) than I did in 2008.  I never checked my balances then, and I rarely check them now.  I'm overdue for my 6 months rebalancing check, but even then I don't have a total at the high to which I'll compare it.  I know a lot of people here are in to the numbers. I'm not, in part because our life plan doesn't have us retiring at a certain number (for now, at least), so it doesn't have a lot of meaning.  But that also means I can't say "ZOMG!  Our portfolio was up to $700k and now it's only $625!"  Because I just don't pay attention because I know it doesn't matter right now.  I have complete confidence in my ability not to panic. 

ducky19

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I find myself checking my accounts far less often when markets are down. Feeling a little morbid this morning, so logged in and looked - not great, but not as bad as I expected. Regardless, I will still dutifully log in at the end of each month and record balances in my spreadsheet. I'm still about 5-6 years from FI, so I don't get too rattled yet, just consider it a buying opportunity. Part of my FIRE plan is to have enough liquid assets and rental income that I can start Roth conversions when I jump off the corporate hamster wheel. When it gets to that point, I'm actually hoping for a downturn so that I'm getting more shares for the money at the point of taxation. Not sure it will work out that way, but here's hoping!

DS

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I wonder if Pete makes less in ad revenue when posting goes down?

There are ads on the forum? #ABP

I'd check my net worth and investment accounts daily. But now that it's been 2+ years of doing this, I'm starting to peter out on new things to read and new ideas to absorb.

I see what you did there.

Maenad

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Funny, I don't see that thread that way.  I see that thread as a reminder not to panic when things cycle to the downside and that one cannot predict when the economy cycles back to a recession. 

Exactly. I see that thread as whistling past the graveyard, because what else can you do? Really? The data shows over and over that sticking to your IPS and not freaking out every time the market drops to be the best way to become wealthy, so yeah we're going to poke fun at someone who wants to rile us all up with fear. Living with that fear sucks, and it doesn't actually do you any good.

And every time I've seen someone enthusiastic about the next recession as a buying opportunity, another poster comes along shortly to remind them "Don't fucking dance": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7eYcWpgCb7o.

ketchup

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The market went down recently?
+1  I do not pay attention to daily fluctuations.  I don't even use Mint anymore, partially for that reason.  It does wonders for one's sanity.  Nowadays I check balances maybe a couple times a year.  I'm still in accumulation, so I'll be "up" no matter what at this point (barring some yuge drop that I'm sure I'd hear about elsewhere).

FireHiker

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I still update monthly, but we are enough years away from FIRE still that I'm not concerned. Actually my husband's comment yesterday (today is payday) was that we'll be buying in this month at a discount. We can't frontload our contributions because then we miss the company match at the end of the year; stupid change that went into effect this year. I don't mind now, though, because we get this pay period's contribution purchases on sale!

I'm a red panda

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I know the markets had a massive dive the last few days because the news told me so. But I check my accounts on the first, so I have no idea how it looks for me. I own the same number of shares as before, so I'm sure it will recover eventually.

I mostly post non finance things on this board. So the market is irrelevant.

Eric

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Top is in!!

This isn't funny anymore, at least not outside that other thread. It actually disgusts me how flippant some people on this board are when markets start falling or when economic times are difficult. People's lives can be effected in profound ways through unemployment or businesses failing, or if they are the victim of predatory financial practices which tend to happen when people are chasing that last little bit of growth at the end. Falling markets can present buying opportunities, but please don't be smugly satisfied by it.

Never forget there is a human factor to every change that occurs in the economy.

This board has only existed during good economic times, so it seems your disgust is manufactured by events that never happened. 

Sugaree

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I still update monthly, but we are enough years away from FIRE still that I'm not concerned. Actually my husband's comment yesterday (today is payday) was that we'll be buying in this month at a discount. We can't frontload our contributions because then we miss the company match at the end of the year; stupid change that went into effect this year. I don't mind now, though, because we get this pay period's contribution purchases on sale!

I'm glad that I'm not the only one thinking "stock sale!". That's even better than a shoe sale.

Raenia

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I only ever find out the markets are falling by checking in here!  I only check my accounts at my end-of-month accounting, and even then I don't distinguish between investment gains vs ongoing contributions, I just record the total.  I barely noticed the last "major drop" earlier this year, and I won't be surprised if by the end of the month, there's nothing to notice about this one either.

seattlecyclone

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In 2008, 2009 I didn't even open statements, I just shredded them without opening.  I wonder how many end of 2018 FIRE planners will put off their dates if the market continues to drop.   

As someone in that group, I have thought a bit about this. I'm planning to FIRE in 3-6 months. I just checked and we're only down about 7% from the high. That's not enough to affect my plans at all. We've (over?)saved enough that we could probably withstand a pretty sizable drop and still retire with a 4% withdrawal rate.

At the same time, there's something to be said for adding to the stash rather than subtracting from it when the market hits bottom and on the way back up. If there was a major crash this month and signs of upward movement by my original planned date, I might stick it out a few more months just to really pad that stash one last time and set myself up for an exploding volcano of wealth in retirement. Hard to say. We'll see what the near future brings.