@dandarc &
@simonsez : To your questions regarding my situation: I am single & 59.5 y.o. and I am in a governmental 457b program. I will retire in a few months with a full pension (60% salary for 6.5 years, 40% thereafter, all with a COLA).
As to why I have been going full Roth for the past 5 years and am doing conversions: My assumptions are tax rates will revert to 25%/28% in 2026 (as they are currently set to revert from 22%/24%). Also looking at current IRMAA premiums if I do no conversions I expect RMDs to force IRMAA to add 1.5% to my effective tax rate. And I expect my investments to grow at least 5% above the rate of inflation. And I am not taking state tax into the calculations - it looks to be a wash.
My current salary puts me just into the 24% bracket, so all my conversions are all 24%. Based on my my pension numbers above I will only have 3 years where my marginal tax rate will be below
22%25%, but just barely with $5K-$10K headroom (2030-2032). After 2032 I will have to start SSI, and at that point I will have maybe $30K of conversion room at a then 25% rate with anything else going into the 28% bracket. At age 72 two years later I will need to start RMDs from the 457 plan. If my investments grow @ 5%, adding the RMDs to my pension and the SSI... I will be already into the
24%28% bracket. And then add 1.5% more for IRMAA at that time as well. And if I take out the minimum yearly distribution (as I plan on) the RMDs will quickly drag me up into the 28% bracket (maybe in ~4 years?).
So my back of the napkin math says I can convert at 24% now or that same money will be taxed at 29.5% starting in a decade. And starting in 2026 almost all money put into my 457b before 2026 will be taxed a minimum of 25% & quite possibly higher. I realize my conclusion may not apply to many here on MMM, but I have gone over the figures and I can't see a scenario where it doesn't work out for me (Sometimes conversions are close to a wash, other times it is at least over 5% savings)