The Money Mustache Community
General Discussion => Welcome and General Discussion => Topic started by: TheContinentalOp on October 01, 2020, 08:17:34 AM
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But my fear that neither side in the US Presidential race is going to concede, has led me to sell all my mutual funds, stocks (and my minuscule bond fund) in non-taxable accounts and park the proceeds in cash. I am planning for a MAR21 FIRE. I have more than my targeted amount. I don't believe there's much upside that I'll be missing out in the next 4-8 weeks. But I'd be pretty pissed with myself if the political situation screws up my plans in the short-term and I didn't do anything to try and avoid that outcome.
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What's the biggest effect on the stock market that you see as a reasonability possibility due to a fight over winning the presidential election?
Stock market possibly, but not definitely dropping 50%, 80%? And then recovering in the next months or years?
If you expect it to possibly drop 50%, you could keep the chance to capture half of the upside, while having the ability to take advantage of a potential drop by purchasing more stocks at a discounted price, by keeping 50% in cash and 50% in stocks. (I did somethig similar from March 16 through March 23).
If you expect it to drop and not recover for a long time, having cash isn't going to help a whole lot, unless you have enough to live on cash until you're confident enough to invest on the stock market.
If you're basically sure of it dropping a lot, going to cash is a reasonable option, if you'll then invest the cash. But you would probably do even better in tha case with options.
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DJIA, Nov 6, 2000=10,977.21. DJIA, Dec 11, 2000=10,725.80.
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Meh, market timing is market timing. This board isn't likely to pat you on the back for it.
Did you let everyone know so you could get some face-punch action? The data says you are more likely to lose on this bet historically.
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Here's another perspective.
It won't make any difference who wins. They own Trump as he is in hock for 350 million dollars to someone. He won't mess up the market.
Biden was like "switched on" a few months ago when it looked like Bernie was making headway. The forces in real power had all the candidates quit (except Bernie) and support Biden. This was the power of the market at work. Biden will be beholden to those folks.
Since both candidates are controlled by the big money, you needn't worry about the market. Powerful people are trying to keep the share prices up. Only natural forces such as pestilence, droughts, innovations, or wars should drag it down.
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My friend thought along the same lines last election saying that if Trump was elected that the market would crash so he pulled everything out and urged me to do the same.
Trump won, the markets hit highs and as far as I know he is still in cash and I did not move mine.
Now if you said you were worried about the economy because of layoffs that are coming, businesses closing, lack of stimulus money, lack of FED pumping money in, people starting to default and the unknown around covid such as will we get a vaccine in time to keep the economy from getting destroyed I would have to admit that I am concerned as well.
I personally do not think that the election will tank the market, it might have a short term effect but I personally would expect it to be short lived and driven more by the underlying economic conditions and Covid than the election even a contested one.
OP - please post what you sold, when and at what price so it can be tracked.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Every election year people get spooked about how the election is going to affect the stock market and try to time the market. Every single election year it's the same thing.
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Yeah.
I mean, statistically speaking, there is a nonzero chance that this year we could get a contested election that the Supreme Court throws to Trump, which would like result in a crisis and massive civil unrest. But the thing is, EVERYONE already knows this so to some extent it's baked into share prices already.
Not like the election just springs upon us out of nowhere.
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But my fear that neither side in the US Presidential race is going to concede, has led me to sell all my mutual funds, stocks (and my minuscule bond fund) in non-taxable accounts and park the proceeds in cash. I am planning for a MAR21 FIRE. I have more than my targeted amount. I don't believe there's much upside that I'll be missing out in the next 4-8 weeks. But I'd be pretty pissed with myself if the political situation screws up my plans in the short-term and I didn't do anything to try and avoid that outcome.
Are you planning on going to cash every 4 years until you die?
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But my fear that neither side in the US Presidential race is going to concede, has led me to sell all my mutual funds, stocks (and my minuscule bond fund) in non-taxable accounts and park the proceeds in cash. I am planning for a MAR21 FIRE. I have more than my targeted amount. I don't believe there's much upside that I'll be missing out in the next 4-8 weeks. But I'd be pretty pissed with myself if the political situation screws up my plans in the short-term and I didn't do anything to try and avoid that outcome.
Kinda sounds like you're trying to time the market...
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But my fear that neither side in the US Presidential race is going to concede, has led me to sell all my mutual funds, stocks (and my minuscule bond fund) in non-taxable accounts and park the proceeds in cash. I am planning for a MAR21 FIRE. I have more than my targeted amount. I don't believe there's much upside that I'll be missing out in the next 4-8 weeks. But I'd be pretty pissed with myself if the political situation screws up my plans in the short-term and I didn't do anything to try and avoid that outcome.
Are you planning on going to cash every 4 years until you die?
But this time is different...
/s
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DJIA, Nov 6, 2000=10,977.21. DJIA, Dec 11, 2000=10,725.80.
To add some context, this was an election in which neither party conceded following the election and it went to the Supreme Court.... just what the OP is worried about. We've been there done that.
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Here's another perspective.
It won't make any difference who wins. They own Trump as he is in hock for 350 million dollars to someone. He won't mess up the market.
Biden was like "switched on" a few months ago when it looked like Bernie was making headway. The forces in real power had all the candidates quit (except Bernie) and support Biden. This was the power of the market at work. Biden will be beholden to those folks.
Since both candidates are controlled by the big money, you needn't worry about the market. Powerful people are trying to keep the share prices up. Only natural forces such as pestilence, droughts, innovations, or wars should drag it down.
I've always suspected this... seemed so strange that everyone dropped out/fell in line all of a sudden. In your opinion, who are the real forces of power out there?
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But my fear that neither side in the US Presidential race is going to concede, has led me to sell all my mutual funds, stocks (and my minuscule bond fund) in non-taxable accounts and park the proceeds in cash. I am planning for a MAR21 FIRE. I have more than my targeted amount. I don't believe there's much upside that I'll be missing out in the next 4-8 weeks. But I'd be pretty pissed with myself if the political situation screws up my plans in the short-term and I didn't do anything to try and avoid that outcome.
So...I share your concern that there's a possibility of the electoral process playing out and the losing party not relinquishing power. This would be a Very Bad Thing and could have unpredictable consequences across all levels of the economy. You seem to be betting that such a situation would result in the stock market losing more value than the dollar. Can you explain why you believe this?
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I've never timed the market. The only time I wish I would have done it is at the beginning of COVID. I distinctly remember reading about Chinese factories being shut down and COVID spreading and being surprised that the markets hadn't dropped yet. I was sure they would drop but I never even thought about doing anything because "market timing is bad". But, that was a sure enough bet that if I had thought about it I probably would have done something. Market change due to election results are not nearly sure enough for me to take any action. Also, there is a very real chance the market could climb and you would miss out on those gains.
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I didn't time for the 2016 election or 2012, or 2004, or 2000, etc... And I don't plan to do so in 2024. 2008 is another matter I will discuss below.
What I sold:
GOOGL - 1484
GOOG 1485
FB - 266
F - 6.70
KO - 48
ACI - 14
MSFT - 211
APPL - 115
Funds liquidated: VLCAS, VBMFX, VIMAX, VSMAX, VTMGX
Holding on to AMZN, BRK.B, VFIAX (500), and VHYAX (Hi-Yield Dividend) in my taxable accounts.
More than likely, I expect to miss out on 1-2 months of gains and dividends. I am willing to forgo that, against the slight chance that a protracted decision on who wins might crush the market. Kind of like buying collision and comprehensive for a car (which I don't do, because I can afford that loss). But I am not willing to blow my FIRE MAR21 plans because Biden and Trump are jerks.
In 2008 my employer switched 401-k plan administrators. Our holdings were liquidated, transferred to the new admins, and placed in the default Money Market fund. For 15 business days our accounts were locked. This was in September when the world seemed to be ending. When we could once again make investment decisions, I waited on the sidelines until April 2009 (missed the valley by about 6 weeks) and bought back in.
Before selling this week, I already had enough cash set aside to live two years comfortably.
To the person who suggested that the dollar might drop more than stocks, what would that look like? If stocks drop 25%, but the dollar drops 50%. I guess that means massive inflation? Or maybe massive inflation for imports. What does that mean for me? Higher prices for Chilean peaches in the Winter?
Also in the back of my mind was that I had originally picked MAR20 to FIRE, but I went OMY in late 2019. But if I had stayed on plan, I am not sure what I would have done as COVID hit and crushed the market. Like I said, I've got more than enough stashed now, and I don't mind missing out on what is likely minimal gains for some piece of mind.
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But my fear that neither side in the US Presidential race is going to concede, has led me to sell all my mutual funds, stocks (and my minuscule bond fund) in non-taxable accounts and park the proceeds in cash.
I hope that you don't mean US dollars. My fear that neither side in the US Presidential race is going to concede leads me to keep as few dollar in my life as possible. I'm as close to 100% VT as I can get.
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I've never timed the market. The only time I wish I would have done it is at the beginning of COVID. I distinctly remember reading about Chinese factories being shut down and COVID spreading and being surprised that the markets hadn't dropped yet. I was sure they would drop but I never even thought about doing anything because "market timing is bad". But, that was a sure enough bet that if I had thought about it I probably would have done something. Market change due to election results are not nearly sure enough for me to take any action. Also, there is a very real chance the market could climb and you would miss out on those gains.
Right, but you are forgetting the dozens of other times someone mentioned something bad, or you read about something, and you thought "yeah, that actually sounds plausible", but then it never panned out. It's only obvious in retrospect.
Another totally obvious one was that the coronavirus dip was going to persist for a long time, unemployment would remain high, and we were in for one hell of an economic recession, and it was going to be reflected in the stock market. Except oops, bad call, the market was instead on a rocket ride to the moon through a raging pandemic for some reason. Businesses failing, record setting unemployment, stay at home orders, hospitals in some areas exceeding capacity, and people dying at an alarming rate - and I'm setting new records for my networth.
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I've never tried to time the market....
Lemme guess, market timing thread?
But my fear that neither side in the US Presidential race is going to concede, has led me to sell all my mutual funds, stocks (and my minuscule bond fund) in non-taxable accounts and park the proceeds in cash. I am planning for a MAR21 FIRE. I have more than my targeted amount. I don't believe there's much upside that I'll be missing out in the next 4-8 weeks. But I'd be pretty pissed with myself if the political situation screws up my plans in the short-term and I didn't do anything to try and avoid that outcome.
Yep.
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How many years do you think the market's going to be down for?
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The market (S&P500) is going to be up 30% by the end of the year.
You heard it here first folks!
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Here's another perspective.
It won't make any difference who wins. They own Trump as he is in hock for 350 million dollars to someone. He won't mess up the market.
Biden was like "switched on" a few months ago when it looked like Bernie was making headway. The forces in real power had all the candidates quit (except Bernie) and support Biden. This was the power of the market at work. Biden will be beholden to those folks.
Since both candidates are controlled by the big money, you needn't worry about the market. Powerful people are trying to keep the share prices up. Only natural forces such as pestilence, droughts, innovations, or wars should drag it down.
I've always suspected this... seemed so strange that everyone dropped out/fell in line all of a sudden. In your opinion, who are the real forces of power out there?
Or.... Occam's razor suggests that since Biden was ALWAYS polling in the lead during the primaries, with the exception of a very short window of time, and then won decisively on Super Tuesday, the other candidates simply saw that it was obvious they weren't going win and did the decent thing and dropped out to consolidate behind the obvious winner and front-runner.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/
Conspiracy theories such as described above are just baroque silliness adding unnecessary complexity to something that is more explainable by simple math and voter preference. I say this having voted for Warren, myself. Most people who vote for Dems in any given election are not as far-left-leaning as the media and the twittersphere would have us believe.
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I didn't time for the 2016 election or 2012, or 2004, or 2000, etc... And I don't plan to do so in 2024. 2008 is another matter I will discuss below.
What I sold:
GOOGL - 1484
GOOG 1485
FB - 266
F - 6.70
KO - 48
ACI - 14
MSFT - 211
APPL - 115
Funds liquidated: VLCAS, VBMFX, VIMAX, VSMAX, VTMGX
Holding on to AMZN, BRK.B, VFIAX (500), and VHYAX (Hi-Yield Dividend) in my taxable accounts.
More than likely, I expect to miss out on 1-2 months of gains and dividends. I am willing to forgo that, against the slight chance that a protracted decision on who wins might crush the market. Kind of like buying collision and comprehensive for a car (which I don't do, because I can afford that loss). But I am not willing to blow my FIRE MAR21 plans because Biden and Trump are jerks.
In 2008 my employer switched 401-k plan administrators. Our holdings were liquidated, transferred to the new admins, and placed in the default Money Market fund. For 15 business days our accounts were locked. This was in September when the world seemed to be ending. When we could once again make investment decisions, I waited on the sidelines until April 2009 (missed the valley by about 6 weeks) and bought back in.
Before selling this week, I already had enough cash set aside to live two years comfortably.
To the person who suggested that the dollar might drop more than stocks, what would that look like? If stocks drop 25%, but the dollar drops 50%. I guess that means massive inflation? Or maybe massive inflation for imports. What does that mean for me? Higher prices for Chilean peaches in the Winter?
Also in the back of my mind was that I had originally picked MAR20 to FIRE, but I went OMY in late 2019. But if I had stayed on plan, I am not sure what I would have done as COVID hit and crushed the market. Like I said, I've got more than enough stashed now, and I don't mind missing out on what is likely minimal gains for some piece of mind.
I don't understand how a market decline is going to ruin your FIRE plan. I feel like we had a few posters here that retired in the past few months, during the market lows of the pandemic. How will the decline you are expecting impact your plan to retire in March? Especially if you already had two years of cash.
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Or.... Occam's razor suggests that since Biden was ALWAYS polling in the lead during the primaries, with the exception of a very short window of time, and then won decisively on Super Tuesday, the other candidates simply saw that it was obvious they weren't going win and did the decent thing and dropped out to consolidate behind the obvious winner and front-runner.
Didn't Klobuchar and Buttigieg both withdraw before Super Tuesday when Biden had a track record of coming in 4th in Iowa, 5th in New Hampshire, 2nd in Nevada, and 1st in South Carolina?
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Or.... Occam's razor suggests that since Biden was ALWAYS polling in the lead during the primaries, with the exception of a very short window of time, and then won decisively on Super Tuesday, the other candidates simply saw that it was obvious they weren't going win and did the decent thing and dropped out to consolidate behind the obvious winner and front-runner.
Didn't Klobuchar and Buttigieg both withdraw before Super Tuesday when Biden had a track record of coming in 4th in Iowa, 5th in New Hampshire, 2nd in Nevada, and 1st in South Carolina?
Yes, it's clear Biden had much better intelligence, probably from the birds, since birds are actually government drones, he used them to spy and gain an advantage on his opponents, forcing some of them to withdraw.
https://www.vice.com/en/article/xg8p4n/birds-arent-real-they-are-government-spy-drones (https://www.vice.com/en/article/xg8p4n/birds-arent-real-they-are-government-spy-drones)
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Or.... Occam's razor suggests that since Biden was ALWAYS polling in the lead during the primaries, with the exception of a very short window of time, and then won decisively on Super Tuesday, the other candidates simply saw that it was obvious they weren't going win and did the decent thing and dropped out to consolidate behind the obvious winner and front-runner.
Didn't Klobuchar and Buttigieg both withdraw before Super Tuesday when Biden had a track record of coming in 4th in Iowa, 5th in New Hampshire, 2nd in Nevada, and 1st in South Carolina?
Sure, and the party was certainly involved in putting pressure on those candidates to clear the 'centrist' slot (b/c polling for Biden was looking good in the Super Tuesday states). But parties ALWAYS do that, it's part of the reason for their existence. It's not some weird conspiracy. If the GOP party elites had done their damn job more effectively, Trump would not have been the candidate on the ticket. Klobuchar and Buttegieg weren't getting many votes and internal polling showed they were unlikely to place well on Super Tuesday either. Why spend all that unnecessary money for no purpose but to split the ticket further? Candidates drop out of primaries before Super Tuesday for these kinds of reasons every single election cycle. Non-sexy, non-conspiracy-theory reasons.
Personally, I was very surprised Harris didn't catch on with voters. I expected her to do really well. Ooops. Our personal views often don't align well with majority voter preferences.
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I've never timed the market. The only time I wish I would have done it is at the beginning of COVID. I distinctly remember reading about Chinese factories being shut down and COVID spreading and being surprised that the markets hadn't dropped yet. I was sure they would drop but I never even thought about doing anything because "market timing is bad". But, that was a sure enough bet that if I had thought about it I probably would have done something. Market change due to election results are not nearly sure enough for me to take any action. Also, there is a very real chance the market could climb and you would miss out on those gains.
Right, but you are forgetting the dozens of other times someone mentioned something bad, or you read about something, and you thought "yeah, that actually sounds plausible", but then it never panned out. It's only obvious in retrospect.
Another totally obvious one was that the coronavirus dip was going to persist for a long time, unemployment would remain high, and we were in for one hell of an economic recession, and it was going to be reflected in the stock market. Except oops, bad call, the market was instead on a rocket ride to the moon through a raging pandemic for some reason. Businesses failing, record setting unemployment, stay at home orders, hospitals in some areas exceeding capacity, and people dying at an alarming rate - and I'm setting new records for my networth.
This is the only time that I have been that confident (I'm talking prior to the drop, not hindsight) that the market was going to drop. I just didn't think about switching my 401K to more stable investments.
You do have a point that I would have anticipated the market staying down much longer. What I would have probably don't is dollar cost average back into the market so I would have invested some while the market was down and still had some in conservative when the market came back.
I'm not planning to try market timing in the future, that event was unusual and just because I was right once doesn't mean I will be again.
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I have more than my targeted amount.
Sounds like you have won the game already, so no need to continue playing if you don't want. Congrats!
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To the person who suggested that the dollar might drop more than stocks, what would that look like? If stocks drop 25%, but the dollar drops 50%. I guess that means massive inflation? Or maybe massive inflation for imports. What does that mean for me? Higher prices for Chilean peaches in the Winter?
Yes, I think that high inflation (perhaps even hyperinflation) is a very likely result of a situation where we can't agree on who our president is come mid-January. The value of a currency depends a lot on people's perception of the stability of the entity issuing it. We can see this in other countries around the world; political instability is often correlated with higher inflation (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2005/wp0549.pdf).
The effect of this is not just that imports will cost more. When the inflation gets bad enough nobody really wants your money. They'll spend it on something tangible as quickly as possible. If all you own is intangible dollars, pretty soon you'll own nothing as the government issues currency denominated in larger and large amounts.
(https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/160504154606-one-trillion-dollar-exlarge-169.jpg)
In such a scenario I'd much rather own shares of operating businesses than cash whose value is evaporating before my eyes.
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Yes, I think that high inflation (perhaps even hyperinflation) is a very likely result of a situation where we can't agree on who our president is come mid-January. The value of a currency depends a lot on people's perception of the stability of the entity issuing it. We can see this in other countries around the world; political instability is often correlated with higher inflation (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2005/wp0549.pdf).
The effect of this is not just that imports will cost more. When the inflation gets bad enough nobody really wants your money. They'll spend it on something tangible as quickly as possible. If all you own is intangible dollars, pretty soon you'll own nothing as the government issues currency denominated in larger and large amounts.
Look on the bright side - if this happens, other than crashing the entire world economy as the de facto reserve currency goes tits up and the worlds largest consumer base scrambles for basic living supplies, it will erase US government debt very quickly when we can pay for the entire coronavirus stimulus with 2 loaves of bread worth of USD.
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Yet another different perspective: the republican/democrat duopoly is corporatist to its core. They're not going to do anything to threaten the golden goose. The rhetoric and hyperbole is hugely different of course, but how they rule is very similar.
There are plenty of good reasons to go to cash; I don't think the election is one of them.
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Look on the bright side - if this happens, other than crashing the entire world economy as the de facto reserve currency goes tits up and the worlds largest consumer base scrambles for basic living supplies, it will erase US government debt very quickly when we can pay for the entire coronavirus stimulus with 2 loaves of bread worth of USD.
Assuming someone will still give you two loaves of bread at that stage.
Mind you, I think other currencies will go down the drain before the USD.
Even the currency exchange game is relative.
I am building up some more cash reserves but mostly because I am planning some house maintenance over the next couple of years.
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As always, I find going to cash such an odd move.
What do you expect to actually gain??
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As always, I find going to cash such an odd move.
What do you expect to actually gain??
Having a big chunk of cash can be useful for tax planning and sequence risk during the first part of the withdrawal phase, assuming inflation isn't nasty.
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As always, I find going to cash such an odd move.
What do you expect to actually gain??
Having a big chunk of cash can be useful for tax planning and sequence risk during the first part of the withdrawal phase, assuming inflation isn't nasty.
Sorry, I meant going to cash as a form of market timing. It seems like such a strange reflexive option.
I understand retirement planning reasons to alter AA at various points.
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People consider cash zero risk (many don't think about inflation) and unconsiously have a zero-risk bias (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-risk_bias). It's generally not a rational decision, but it's still a quite common form of market timing
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This year has been such a learning experience for me, you never know how you're going to react when your hard-earned money is at stake. To my surprise I wasn't really tempted to stay in cash. I retired a month ago, and to do the 401K rollover I had to liquidate the account, which was all in an S&P 500 index mutual fund. I reinvested it right back into the market.
It would probably stress me out more trying to figure out when to jump back into the market, if I decided to jump out.
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Yeah.
I mean, statistically speaking, there is a nonzero chance that this year we could get a contested election that the Supreme Court throws to Trump, which would like result in a crisis and massive civil unrest. But the thing is, EVERYONE already knows this so to some extent it's baked into share prices already.
Not like the election just springs upon us out of nowhere.
Well, baked in to some extent is true, but it would be baked in from a probabilistic sense. If people think there's a 5% chance it happens, but then it actually happens, we'd be hit by the other 95% of that. In theory.
Not defending the OP, but I guess if that's what allows them to sleep at night, ok. The key thing for a move such as this is to have a defined plan for when to get back in. Otherwise, you're potentially sitting around on a heap of cash while missing out on huge gains that may not make sense to you. Most FIRE plans fail with an asset allocation of 100% cash, and there will always be rational - and irrational - reasons not to jump back in.
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To me, the question isn't about what's going to happen in November, December, or even all of 2021. The question is -- where will this country and the stock market be in 5 years? 10? 20? Because that's what my investments are aimed at, the long term.
I do have concerns about how COVID-19 is going to affect the economy over the next several years, and the U.S. indefinitely. But I still don't see a better game in town.
I've set my AA so that I have enough cash to see me through until I believe the market has had time to have its hysterics, crash, and recover. But I see a big difference between losing faith in the market over the next few months and losing faith in the market over the next 10-20 years. I have no confidence in it over a few months. But I do still believe it will right its course over 10-20 years. I could be wrong, of course. But that's the best bet I see.
YMMV, of course.
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Seriously, what makes you think that US dollars are a good investment?
FT: The end of the dollar’s exorbitant privilege (https://www.ft.com/content/46b1a230-8c6c-4feb-b617-21a520cc201b)
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We made an irrational/timing move this year and moved ~20% out of the market, but used it to pay off the mortgage rather than sit in cash. Probably still deserve a face punch, but we were 100% in the market, so the move was not so drastic.
What I wonder about the OP, is why did your ability to FIRE in MAR 2021 feel threatened if you already had enough in cash to cover 2 years in expenses as stated? It seems that short of a real collapse of our government, and drama related to this election should be well over by MAR 2023.
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Others here will recognize me as a committed member of the DNPYM club.
Other things being equal, yhou can have a riskier allocation to stocks if you're mortgage free. It means that your cash flow needs are lower, and so you can shrink your lifestyle down in a bear market.
I personally have the biggest damn mortgage I can, but investment accounts are 20% bonds (I turned forty this year).
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We made an irrational/timing move this year and moved ~20% out of the market, but used it to pay off the mortgage rather than sit in cash. Probably still deserve a face punch, but we were 100% in the market, so the move was not so drastic.
What I wonder about the OP, is why did your ability to FIRE in MAR 2021 feel threatened if you already had enough in cash to cover 2 years in expenses as stated? It seems that short of a real collapse of our government, and drama related to this election should be well over by MAR 2023.
I'm curious as to what your interest rate was if you'd be willing to share.
You should know that whether or not to pay off your mortgage for some reason is really controversial here. I hope I don't start an argument.
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Some people take the mortgage thing seriously. I hope I have a reputation as someone who saw both arguments, judged it right for him, but was supportive of Mustachians who slayed their mortgages as one step along the way to bad-assity.
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Or.... Occam's razor suggests that since Biden was ALWAYS polling in the lead during the primaries, with the exception of a very short window of time, and then won decisively on Super Tuesday, the other candidates simply saw that it was obvious they weren't going win and did the decent thing and dropped out to consolidate behind the obvious winner and front-runner.
Didn't Klobuchar and Buttigieg both withdraw before Super Tuesday when Biden had a track record of coming in 4th in Iowa, 5th in New Hampshire, 2nd in Nevada, and 1st in South Carolina?
Buttigieg withdrew because he knew he wasn't going to do well on Super Tuesday. Iowa's giant eff-up meant he couldn't capitalize on his (admittedly tiny margin) win there to get momentum in the other states.
As a Buttigieg supporter in Iowa who worked my ass off on his campaign to get ready for the caucus, I am still so mad how that went. I can't imagine how he actually feels. Iowa is only important for momentum, and they screwed the pooch for the campaigns that won and/or did better than expected.
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We made an irrational/timing move this year and moved ~20% out of the market, but used it to pay off the mortgage rather than sit in cash. Probably still deserve a face punch, but we were 100% in the market, so the move was not so drastic.
What I wonder about the OP, is why did your ability to FIRE in MAR 2021 feel threatened if you already had enough in cash to cover 2 years in expenses as stated? It seems that short of a real collapse of our government, and drama related to this election should be well over by MAR 2023.
I'm curious as to what your interest rate was if you'd be willing to share.
You should know that whether or not to pay off your mortgage for some reason is really controversial here. I hope I don't start an argument.
3.125% Completely aware of controversy, I've read much and posted little.
The remainder of our NW is in index funds, no bonds so I see this as asset allocation, while acknowledging the emotional component of that being in contrast to math.
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Buttigieg withdrew because he knew he wasn't going to do well on Super Tuesday. Iowa's giant eff-up meant he couldn't capitalize on his (admittedly tiny margin) win there to get momentum in the other states.
As a Buttigieg supporter in Iowa who worked my ass off on his campaign to get ready for the caucus, I am still so mad how that went. I can't imagine how he actually feels. Iowa is only important for momentum, and they screwed the pooch for the campaigns that won and/or did better than expected.
I have to say that it was the Iowa Democratic Party that messed up and not Iowa in general. The Iowa Republican run caucuses ran like clockwork.
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Yeah, Republicans know how to run an election. That part is completely solid.
The other stuff we're supposed to be running, well smaller government is good anyway.
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Buttigieg withdrew because he knew he wasn't going to do well on Super Tuesday. Iowa's giant eff-up meant he couldn't capitalize on his (admittedly tiny margin) win there to get momentum in the other states.
As a Buttigieg supporter in Iowa who worked my ass off on his campaign to get ready for the caucus, I am still so mad how that went. I can't imagine how he actually feels. Iowa is only important for momentum, and they screwed the pooch for the campaigns that won and/or did better than expected.
I have to say that it was the Iowa Democratic Party that messed up and not Iowa in general. The Iowa Republican run caucuses ran like clockwork.
Yes, the Republican caucus is a completely different thing, and very very different. I don't know a single Republican who attended this year though. (And my neighborhood is FILLED with them. They all babysat for the Democrats.)
Caucuses in general are unrepresentative bullshit that have no place in a democracy, IMO.
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S&P 500 down 3.3% for October. I didn't go and calculate my other past holdings. My plan is still to re-enter the market on Nov. 16th, if things aren't "crazy."
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S&P 500 down 3.3% for October. I didn't go and calculate my other past holdings. My plan is still to re-enter the market on Nov. 16th, if things aren't "crazy."
So, have you decided whether things are crazy or not, and will you follow your stated plan? VTSAX is up 6.7% from October 1 until today. My small-cap value funds are up 15-17% over that time period (about damn time they stopped dragging my portfolio down). Was your peace of mind worth it?
I'm not trying to rub salt in the wound (if there is indeed a wound); I'm just curious on your mindset, and think it might be instructive to others - you did start the thread, after all, so it's only fair to see how things ended up. It would also be instructive if you decided to change your plan. One takeaway, I think, is that the market is not at all a predictable beast, even when things seem like they should be - or should've been - obvious.
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S&P 500 down 3.3% for October. I didn't go and calculate my other past holdings. My plan is still to re-enter the market on Nov. 16th, if things aren't "crazy."
Since your original post on October 1rst, my investment portfolio has increased by 5.6% invested in S&P 500 index stocks. As predicted above, you missed the big bump and essentially lost money by pulling out of the stock market when you did.
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Interestingly enough, we do have one side refusing to accept the results of the election, as OP guessed. We've also gotten two tremendously good pieces of news on COVID. That kind of stuff is hard to predict.
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Interestingly enough, we do have one side refusing to accept the results of the election, as OP guessed. We've also gotten two tremendously good pieces of news on COVID. That kind of stuff is hard to predict.
Hardly an impressive distinction, considering that both of those items were all over the news for the past few weeks/months. There so many companies that were working night and day toward a vaccine, that it was only a matter of time before we had some good news there. The only questionable thing was that OP suggested that neither side would accept the results. I don't believe ever hearing anything to indicate that Biden would not accept the election results, while Trump (I believe) flat out stated that he would not accept the results.
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Interestingly enough, we do have one side refusing to accept the results of the election, as OP guessed. We've also gotten two tremendously good pieces of news on COVID. That kind of stuff is hard to predict.
Hardly an impressive distinction, considering that both of those items were all over the news for the past few weeks/months. There so many companies that were working night and day toward a vaccine, that it was only a matter of time before we had some good news there. The only questionable thing was that OP suggested that neither side would accept the results. I don't believe ever hearing anything to indicate that Biden would not accept the election results, while Trump (I believe) flat out stated that he would not accept the results.
"It's only a matter of time before" is the eternal justification for timing the market though. No one should be surprised that we're making progress on a COVID vaccine. But determining on October 1st whether this good news would come in mid-November or February or later is anyone's guess.
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Interestingly enough, we do have one side refusing to accept the results of the election, as OP guessed. We've also gotten two tremendously good pieces of news on COVID. That kind of stuff is hard to predict.
Trump has been claiming since 2016 that he won't accept the results, unless he wins. Every single primary that he lost in he claimed was rigged and the opponent cheated. He eventually won the nomination, but then claimed he would only accept the results of the presidential election if he won. Even after he won he still claimed the other side cheated and had millions of illegal votes. He's been railing against the results of the 2020 election since 6 months before it even took place. It's not surprising in the least that he refuses to concede. He's been remarkably consistent on that point.
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Interestingly enough, we do have one side refusing to accept the results of the election, as OP guessed. We've also gotten two tremendously good pieces of news on COVID. That kind of stuff is hard to predict.
Trump has been claiming since 2016 that he won't accept the results, unless he wins. Every single primary that he lost in he claimed was rigged and the opponent cheated. He eventually won the nomination, but then claimed he would only accept the results of the presidential election if he won. Even after he won he still claimed the other side cheated and had millions of illegal votes. He's been railing against the results of the 2020 election since 6 months before it even took place. It's not surprising in the least that he refuses to concede. He's been remarkably consistent on that point.
I completely agree. Anyone who is surprised in the slightest by the election tantrum hasn't been paying attention.
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I still don't understand why that would affect the economy or stock market. The stock market cares about stimulus, shutdowns, and a vaccine. The presidency being in limbo for a few months affects nothing. If anything the stock market would be in limbo until the dust settles and it could price in the next president and his expected policies.
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I think the stock market cares about far more than you give it credit for. It's always pricing in everything people think might affect any particular public business, in probabilities.