I've never tried to time the market....

[Arbitrage]

S&P 500 down 3.3% for October. I didn't go and calculate my other past holdings. My plan is still to re-enter the market on Nov. 16th, if things aren't "crazy."

So, have you decided whether things are crazy or not, and will you follow your stated plan?  VTSAX is up 6.7% from October 1 until today.  My small-cap value funds are up 15-17% over that time period (about damn time they stopped dragging my portfolio down).  Was your peace of mind worth it? 

I'm not trying to rub salt in the wound (if there is indeed a wound); I'm just curious on your mindset, and think it might be instructive to others - you did start the thread, after all, so it's only fair to see how things ended up.  It would also be instructive if you decided to change your plan.  One takeaway, I think, is that the market is not at all a predictable beast, even when things seem like they should be - or should've been - obvious.

[lthenderson]

S&P 500 down 3.3% for October. I didn't go and calculate my other past holdings. My plan is still to re-enter the market on Nov. 16th, if things aren't "crazy."

Since your original post on October 1rst, my investment portfolio has increased by 5.6% invested in S&P 500 index stocks. As predicted above, you missed the big bump and essentially lost money by pulling out of the stock market when you did.

[mathlete]

Interestingly enough, we do have one side refusing to accept the results of the election, as OP guessed. We've also gotten two tremendously good pieces of news on COVID. That kind of stuff is hard to predict.

[slappy]

Interestingly enough, we do have one side refusing to accept the results of the election, as OP guessed. We've also gotten two tremendously good pieces of news on COVID. That kind of stuff is hard to predict.

Hardly an impressive distinction, considering that both of those items were all over the news for the past few weeks/months. There so many companies that were working night and day toward a vaccine, that it was only a matter of time before we had some good news there.  The only questionable thing was that OP suggested that neither side would accept the results. I don't believe ever hearing anything to indicate that Biden would not accept the election results, while Trump (I believe) flat out stated that he would not accept the results.

[mathlete]

Interestingly enough, we do have one side refusing to accept the results of the election, as OP guessed. We've also gotten two tremendously good pieces of news on COVID. That kind of stuff is hard to predict.

Hardly an impressive distinction, considering that both of those items were all over the news for the past few weeks/months. There so many companies that were working night and day toward a vaccine, that it was only a matter of time before we had some good news there.  The only questionable thing was that OP suggested that neither side would accept the results. I don't believe ever hearing anything to indicate that Biden would not accept the election results, while Trump (I believe) flat out stated that he would not accept the results.

"It's only a matter of time before" is the eternal justification for timing the market though. No one should be surprised that we're making progress on a COVID vaccine. But determining on October 1st whether this good news would come in mid-November or February or later is anyone's guess.

[frugalnacho]

Interestingly enough, we do have one side refusing to accept the results of the election, as OP guessed. We've also gotten two tremendously good pieces of news on COVID. That kind of stuff is hard to predict.

Trump has been claiming since 2016 that he won't accept the results, unless he wins.  Every single primary that he lost in he claimed was rigged and the opponent cheated.  He eventually won the nomination, but then claimed he would only accept the results of the presidential election if he won.  Even after he won he still claimed the other side cheated and had millions of illegal votes.  He's been railing against the results of the 2020 election since 6 months before it even took place.  It's not surprising in the least that he refuses to concede.  He's been remarkably consistent on that point. 

[Arbitrage]

Interestingly enough, we do have one side refusing to accept the results of the election, as OP guessed. We've also gotten two tremendously good pieces of news on COVID. That kind of stuff is hard to predict.

Trump has been claiming since 2016 that he won't accept the results, unless he wins.  Every single primary that he lost in he claimed was rigged and the opponent cheated.  He eventually won the nomination, but then claimed he would only accept the results of the presidential election if he won.  Even after he won he still claimed the other side cheated and had millions of illegal votes.  He's been railing against the results of the 2020 election since 6 months before it even took place.  It's not surprising in the least that he refuses to concede.  He's been remarkably consistent on that point.

I completely agree.  Anyone who is surprised in the slightest by the election tantrum hasn't been paying attention.

[wageslave23]

I still don't understand why that would affect the economy or stock market.  The stock market cares about stimulus, shutdowns, and a vaccine.  The presidency being in limbo for a few months affects nothing.  If anything the stock market would be in limbo until the dust settles and it could price in the next president and his expected policies.

[Arbitrage]

I think the stock market cares about far more than you give it credit for.  It's always pricing in everything people think might affect any particular public business, in probabilities.