Poll

What is your planned withdrawal rate? Please read details closely

2% or less
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5% or greater

Author Topic: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely  (Read 9941 times)

PhilB

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #100 on: December 29, 2021, 06:29:57 AM »
4% is a worst case rule. How many of you all stay in a plastic bubble all day to prevent anything bad from ever happening. What other portions of your life do you evaluate for the absolute worst case scenario and then base decisions on that.  Like well if I get in a plane it could crash. Better not do that.  Apply to everything else ad nauseum. 

Worst case here you need some more money.

I've been wondering some variant of this the whole thread. The 4% is 95% certainty that you won't run out of money. In my cFIRE calcs, it doesn't seem like adding years on at the tail end (ie, longer than 30 years) changes failure probability that much. So, it seems that the push for lower SWR percentages is discomfort with a 95% probability of failure, though pushing down to 3% gets you close to 100%, so 2% as a target seems excessive to me.

Even below 3.5% WR the failure rate is very, very small.

You guys are missing the forest because of the trees.  It is not a 95% chance that your money will last with a 4% wr going forward. It's a 95% your money would have lasted if you retired sometime in the last 100 yrs.  You can run all the calculations about the last 100 yrs that you want, people here are questioning the predictive value of that data set.  It's like you guys are trying to quote Bible verses to an atheist to prove that the Bible is the Word of God.

Yes, withdrawal rates will almost certainly need to be less in the future.  Don't count on the 4% rule, anymore.  There's a sticky thread here about not worrying about the 4% rule that some find comfort in.

You're missing the fact that you would be very hard pressed to find anyone on here who plans to blindly follow the 4% rule - despite the fact that it would have worked in 95% of past time spans.  I can pretty much guarantee that everybody has a plan to significantly cut spending and / or earn more money in the unlikely event that 4% doesn't look like it will be sustainable when we're a few years in.  4% isn't a 'rule' it's a guideline.  Yes it may well need corrective action more often than it would have done in the past.  I've yet to see any evidence though to convince me that, on balance of probability, you're not more likely than not to end up with more money than you started with.

boarder42

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #101 on: December 29, 2021, 07:03:41 AM »
Exits thread left heads over to boggleheads with more liberal appliers of the 4% rule

ixtap

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #102 on: December 29, 2021, 07:12:31 AM »
Exits thread left heads over to boggleheads with more liberal appliers of the 4% rule

Hahahahahaha, they are either at 2.5 or using VPW over there!

secondcor521

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #103 on: December 29, 2021, 07:31:38 AM »
I didn't keep very good historical records.

From my journal, I was at about 2% net WR right around the time I FIREd.

As of a day or two ago I'm at 0.68% net WR.

lhamo

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #104 on: December 29, 2021, 09:45:12 AM »
No statistician retires with a 4% SWR for a retirement duration for more than 30 years without the assumption they will have to go back to work or slash spending.       

So, if we accept this statement, what perhaps might be more helpful is to suggest what actual steps a statistician would take if they saw things going off the rails.
If the 4% rule is too simple/bound to fail, what are the alternatives?  Or at the very least, what are the real, statistically informed red flags that signal corrective action is needed along the way?  Something like:

25% drop in portfolio value => drop annual expenses 50% and/or bring in X in additional income

Also, for those based in the US, does this take SS into account?  Granted not many of us have budgets that would be met by SS alone, but most will get something from the program. In my case once I start taking SS at age 70 my predicted withdrawal rate will be in the 1% range. If I started taking it at age 62 instead, my withdrawal rate would be in the 2-3% range.  I FIREd at age 46 so the period I really need to be worried about is 16-24 years, not 30+

Ironically those who stay in stressful work situations long enough to get to a sub-3% SWR pre-FIRE are probably shortening their time in retirement significantly due to the damage chronic stress is doing to their health.  For me the risk that I might have to have a simpler lifestyle as I get older is worth the benefit of being able to get older!

LightStache

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #105 on: December 29, 2021, 11:21:37 AM »
Ironically those who stay in stressful work situations long enough to get to a sub-3% SWR pre-FIRE are probably shortening their time in retirement significantly due to the damage chronic stress is doing to their health.  For me the risk that I might have to have a simpler lifestyle as I get older is worth the benefit of being able to get older!

True! On the flip side, also increasing the amount of money needed to FIRE to cover healthcare costs.

Morning Glory

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #106 on: December 29, 2021, 05:40:50 PM »
4% is a worst case rule. How many of you all stay in a plastic bubble all day to prevent anything bad from ever happening. What other portions of your life do you evaluate for the absolute worst case scenario and then base decisions on that.  Like well if I get in a plane it could crash. Better not do that.  Apply to everything else ad nauseum. 

Worst case here you need some more money.

I've been wondering some variant of this the whole thread. The 4% is 95% certainty that you won't run out of money. In my cFIRE calcs, it doesn't seem like adding years on at the tail end (ie, longer than 30 years) changes failure probability that much. So, it seems that the push for lower SWR percentages is discomfort with a 95% probability of failure, though pushing down to 3% gets you close to 100%, so 2% as a target seems excessive to me.

Even below 3.5% WR the failure rate is very, very small.

You guys are missing the forest because of the trees.  It is not a 95% chance that your money will last with a 4% wr going forward. It's a 95% your money would have lasted if you retired sometime in the last 100 yrs.  You can run all the calculations about the last 100 yrs that you want, people here are questioning the predictive value of that data set.  It's like you guys are trying to quote Bible verses to an atheist to prove that the Bible is the Word of God. 

Shit you're right guess I'll follow your screen name til I die

Sad response.  Wageslave23 is correcting factual error in some statements and doesn't deserve your sarcasm for it.

Guys there's lots of other things bigger and scarier than sequence risk that could jeopardize your retirement.  Divorce is much more common than a market downturn,  for example.  Do you see any sense in working longer to have double the stash just in case you get divorced? Of course not... if that happens you'll probably have to go back to work, right? And you'll be no worse off than you are now? Then why not treat sequence risk the same way?

So 50% likelihood divorce-> back to work

Probably some other factors: relatives needing support,  natural disaster, child with disability who needs ongoing care into adulthood, etc:  all scarier than sequence risk, and in my case much more likely.
 
« Last Edit: December 29, 2021, 05:43:12 PM by Morning Glory »

DaTrill

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #107 on: December 29, 2021, 06:03:06 PM »
No statistician retires with a 4% SWR for a retirement duration for more than 30 years without the assumption they will have to go back to work or slash spending.       

So, if we accept this statement, what perhaps might be more helpful is to suggest what actual steps a statistician would take if they saw things going off the rails.
If the 4% rule is too simple/bound to fail, what are the alternatives?  Or at the very least, what are the real, statistically informed red flags that signal corrective action is needed along the way?  Something like:

25% drop in portfolio value => drop annual expenses 50% and/or bring in X in additional income

Also, for those based in the US, does this take SS into account?  Granted not many of us have budgets that would be met by SS alone, but most will get something from the program. In my case once I start taking SS at age 70 my predicted withdrawal rate will be in the 1% range. If I started taking it at age 62 instead, my withdrawal rate would be in the 2-3% range.  I FIREd at age 46 so the period I really need to be worried about is 16-24 years, not 30+

Ironically those who stay in stressful work situations long enough to get to a sub-3% SWR pre-FIRE are probably shortening their time in retirement significantly due to the damage chronic stress is doing to their health.  For me the risk that I might have to have a simpler lifestyle as I get older is worth the benefit of being able to get older!

A statistician would do an analysis themselves using a 50-year retirement period as opposed to a 30-year retirement period.  Find a SWR that results in under 1% failure rate, use this, with buffers such as SS or the ability to return to work.  One of the most basic tenants of stats is not to extrapolate and using an estimate from a 30-year time period for a 50-year period is such a violation.  Extrapolation does not indicate failure, but a violation of stats rules.  Garbage in garbage out. 

In my simple analysis, 1% SWR never fails in a 50-year time period, 2% fails less than 2% and a reliable SWR for FIRE.  Failure rate geometrically increases with SWR.  One can get to 2% by cutting spending or working part time, but 4% for a 50-year retirement is aggressive.  But this is like telling people ice cream makes them fat, nobody likes bad news and many just keep eating ice cream, watch Oprah for affirmation and complain about fat shaming.     

I would argue that there are many who blindly follow 4%, I've also seen some retirement "gurus" promote a higher SWR for longer retirements, which is absolutely insane and reveals a lack of understanding methods to create the 4% estimate. 

If anyone thinks that filing out TPS reports or sitting through action plans meetings are stressful, think about the stress caused by running out of money or cutting it close after one can no longer work.  The latter is stress, the former is just annoying and motivation for cartoon characters/comedies.             

Villanelle

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #108 on: December 29, 2021, 07:07:35 PM »
I suspect a statistician would do what many (probably most) of us are planning on doing, which is not blindly withdraw 4% regardless of market conditions.  They'd likely have several layers of back up plans, like the ability to cut spending in down markets and an income stream they can fairly easily ramp up to earn a bit of money to decrease the amount needed for withdraw.

My plan is 4%, more or less.  But not blindly.  Bad market? I don't go on vacation that year and trim the grocery budget by adding an extra meatless meal.  And I'll ramp up my easily scalable side gig and/or find a new one to bring in a few thousand extra dollars. 

So yes, it is like saying ice cream makes you fat.  But I think very few people plan a diet of entirely ice cream, and they are capable of eating ice cream only in moderation, and of cutting back on ice cream intake if their pants start getting tight.   I'm not going to continue eating three scoops of ice cream per week, even as I start gaining weight. So I still feel comfortable having ice cream in my overall diet, even if it is true that too much ice cream makes you fat. 

Glenstache

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #109 on: December 29, 2021, 07:37:51 PM »
A statistician would realize the difference between a 5% and 1% failure rate. A financial planner would look at back up plans, and a human being will decide what their individual risk tolerance is. Much of the "there might be worse co diction in the future than the Great depression and 2 world wars" is rank speculation. Yes, it is possible that something worse than the prior events will happen (the n for big events is pretty small), but we could also see single payer Healthcare in the US or cold fusion that would help mustachians.  Aggressively low WR mostly indicate a low tolerance for risk. That is totally fine. It does not mean that others do not understand the underlying math and assumptions.

That said, as llhsmo says, if there are specific data driven resources  to learn from, I am personally game and willing yo adjust (I avoid YouTube videos as IMHO they are a slow way to learn things).

Tempname23

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #110 on: December 30, 2021, 06:08:19 AM »
It's complicated! today we have a 2.2% WDR, in 4 years I'll get SS, and 4 more, my wife gets her SS. At that point we should be closer to 1%, depending on what the market does. If we get a double in the next 8 years, it would be closer to 1/2%.
For poor people we sure over saved!
  Over the last 4 years we have paid about $300,000 in tuition expense to get my daughter through Dental school, now that we are done with that, I'm going to try and even things up, by starting to gift some money to our son.

Note to self, figure out how to BTD!

uniwelder

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #111 on: December 30, 2021, 06:19:16 AM »

Guys there's lots of other things bigger and scarier than sequence risk that could jeopardize your retirement.  Divorce is much more common than a market downturn,  for example.  Do you see any sense in working longer to have double the stash just in case you get divorced? Of course not... if that happens you'll probably have to go back to work, right? And you'll be no worse off than you are now? Then why not treat sequence risk the same way?

So 50% likelihood divorce-> back to work

Probably some other factors: relatives needing support,  natural disaster, child with disability who needs ongoing care into adulthood, etc:  all scarier than sequence risk, and in my case much more likely.

You're bringing up a good point that doesn't get discussed much.  When MMM got divorced, I remember a thread about it, but otherwise not.  For those of us that are married, its actually a compelling reason to be more conservative.  The other points you bring up are a bit easier to plan around--- whether or not kids/relatives even factor in, and natural disasters are generally covered with home insurance.  In the US, expensive medical care is probably #2 concern after divorce and a situation where going back to work might not be an option.

MasterStache

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #112 on: December 30, 2021, 06:33:04 AM »
Can I pick all of the above? Seriously I mean who really draws 4% exactly every year? I think the biggest factor of a "successful" ER is flexibility. Some years you may withdraw 4%. Other years may be less or more. I plan on continuing with some occasional side work and my spouse plans on finding a fun fulfilling part time job. I have no idea how that will affect our SWR. I gave up trying to do withdrawal calculations. I just find it easier to keep an eye on our money and adjust our life situation accordingly. 

Dicey

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #113 on: December 30, 2021, 07:10:13 AM »
4% is a worst case rule. How many of you all stay in a plastic bubble all day to prevent anything bad from ever happening. What other portions of your life do you evaluate for the absolute worst case scenario and then base decisions on that.  Like well if I get in a plane it could crash. Better not do that.  Apply to everything else ad nauseum. 

Worst case here you need some more money.

I've been wondering some variant of this the whole thread. The 4% is 95% certainty that you won't run out of money. In my cFIRE calcs, it doesn't seem like adding years on at the tail end (ie, longer than 30 years) changes failure probability that much. So, it seems that the push for lower SWR percentages is discomfort with a 95% probability of failure, though pushing down to 3% gets you close to 100%, so 2% as a target seems excessive to me.

Even below 3.5% WR the failure rate is very, very small.

You guys are missing the forest because of the trees.  It is not a 95% chance that your money will last with a 4% wr going forward. It's a 95% your money would have lasted if you retired sometime in the last 100 yrs.  You can run all the calculations about the last 100 yrs that you want, people here are questioning the predictive value of that data set.  It's like you guys are trying to quote Bible verses to an atheist to prove that the Bible is the Word of God. 

Shit you're right guess I'll follow your screen name til I die

Sad response.  Wageslave23 is correcting factual error in some statements and doesn't deserve your sarcasm for it.
Huh? The very mild sarcasm seems totally appropriate, even well deserved. Why choose such a screen name for a board devoted to escaping wage slavery as soon as possible? Defeatism? Antagonism?

I found the response quite humorous, which is the opposite of sad.

ChpBstrd

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #114 on: December 30, 2021, 09:57:33 AM »
Can I pick all of the above? Seriously I mean who really draws 4% exactly every year? I think the biggest factor of a "successful" ER is flexibility. Some years you may withdraw 4%. Other years may be less or more. I plan on continuing with some occasional side work and my spouse plans on finding a fun fulfilling part time job. I have no idea how that will affect our SWR. I gave up trying to do withdrawal calculations. I just find it easier to keep an eye on our money and adjust our life situation accordingly.

Actually flexibility might be a less useful strategy than one might think:
https://earlyretirementnow.com/2018/05/09/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-24-flexibility-myths-vs-reality/

NorthernIkigai

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #115 on: December 30, 2021, 10:47:45 AM »
This thread is heading towards full Financial Samurai mode… is that some FIRE specific form of Godwin’s law?

ixtap

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #116 on: December 30, 2021, 10:58:35 AM »
This thread is heading towards full Financial Samurai mode… is that some FIRE specific form of Godwin’s law?

I still haven't figured the difference between what the OP is trying to ask and leanFIRE. Nothing quite like a thread that combines withdrawal rates and FIRE definitions!

Morning Glory

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #117 on: December 30, 2021, 03:57:51 PM »
This thread is heading towards full Financial Samurai mode… is that some FIRE specific form of Godwin’s law?

I was trying to say there is no point in oversaving now if you are miserable because you could just go back to work later if shit hits the fan, and you'll at least have had a break to get over the worst of the burnout. One guaranteed extra year of work now or a 5% chance of an extra year later. Hmm.

Ron Scott

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #118 on: December 31, 2021, 06:19:15 AM »
It is not a 95% chance that your money will last with a 4% wr going forward. It's a 95% your money would have lasted if you retired sometime in the last 100 yrs. You can run all the calculations about the last 100 yrs that you want, people here are questioning the predictive value of that data set.  It's like you guys are trying to quote Bible verses to an atheist to prove that the Bible is the Word of God.

This perfectly captures the point. Thank you.

I accept that the 4% WR results from an accurate analysis of returns and withdrawals from the past 100 years.

But that accurate analysis simply does not justify the authors’ brash assertion, that past results are indicative of future performance. That assertion is inappropriate and potentially damaging IMO.


vand

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #119 on: December 31, 2021, 06:44:58 AM »
This thread is heading towards full Financial Samurai mode… is that some FIRE specific form of Godwin’s law?

Yeah, it's like they've forgotten than a risk-free alternative product that pays out into perpetuity and shifts the risk onto the provider has already been invented...

Ron Scott

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #120 on: December 31, 2021, 08:14:23 AM »
This thread is heading towards full Financial Samurai mode… is that some FIRE specific form of Godwin’s law?

Yeah, it's like they've forgotten than a risk-free alternative product that pays out into perpetuity and shifts the risk onto the provider has already been invented...

A good friend of mine fat-FIREd about 15 years ago, in his early 40s. His strategy was to annuitize for basic living expenses, maintain a 80-20 portfolio, hold off on taking $$ from the IRA until required to, and use SS as a buffer down the road.

When asked, he will say his strategy is like a 3% SWR… He never looked back and is very happy with his plan.


boarder42

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #121 on: December 31, 2021, 08:21:41 AM »
This thread is heading towards full Financial Samurai mode… is that some FIRE specific form of Godwin’s law?

Yeah, it's like they've forgotten than a risk-free alternative product that pays out into perpetuity and shifts the risk onto the provider has already been invented...

A good friend of mine fat-FIREd about 15 years ago, in his early 40s. His strategy was to annuitize for basic living expenses, maintain a 80-20 portfolio, hold off on taking $$ from the IRA until required to, and use SS as a buffer down the road.

When asked, he will say his strategy is like a 3% SWR… He never looked back and is very happy with his plan.


Where am I again??!??!!!

Work til you're normal retirement age buy an annuity? But you know have a "fired" wife who stays at home and takes care of the kids.  It's like advice from a boomer about the traditional American path.

Dicey

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #122 on: December 31, 2021, 09:25:14 AM »
This thread is heading towards full Financial Samurai mode… is that some FIRE specific form of Godwin’s law?

Yeah, it's like they've forgotten than a risk-free alternative product that pays out into perpetuity and shifts the risk onto the provider has already been invented...

A good friend of mine fat-FIREd about 15 years ago, in his early 40s. His strategy was to annuitize for basic living expenses, maintain a 80-20 portfolio, hold off on taking $$ from the IRA until required to, and use SS as a buffer down the road.

When asked, he will say his strategy is like a 3% SWR… He never looked back and is very happy with his plan.


Where am I again??!??!!!

Work til you're normal retirement age buy an annuity? But you know have a "fired" wife who stays at home and takes care of the kids.  It's like advice from a boomer about the traditional American path.
Nailed it!

American GenX

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #123 on: December 31, 2021, 09:30:17 AM »
4% is a worst case rule. How many of you all stay in a plastic bubble all day to prevent anything bad from ever happening. What other portions of your life do you evaluate for the absolute worst case scenario and then base decisions on that.  Like well if I get in a plane it could crash. Better not do that.  Apply to everything else ad nauseum. 

Worst case here you need some more money.

I've been wondering some variant of this the whole thread. The 4% is 95% certainty that you won't run out of money. In my cFIRE calcs, it doesn't seem like adding years on at the tail end (ie, longer than 30 years) changes failure probability that much. So, it seems that the push for lower SWR percentages is discomfort with a 95% probability of failure, though pushing down to 3% gets you close to 100%, so 2% as a target seems excessive to me.

Even below 3.5% WR the failure rate is very, very small.

You guys are missing the forest because of the trees.  It is not a 95% chance that your money will last with a 4% wr going forward. It's a 95% your money would have lasted if you retired sometime in the last 100 yrs.  You can run all the calculations about the last 100 yrs that you want, people here are questioning the predictive value of that data set.  It's like you guys are trying to quote Bible verses to an atheist to prove that the Bible is the Word of God.

Yes, withdrawal rates will almost certainly need to be less in the future.  Don't count on the 4% rule, anymore.  There's a sticky thread here about not worrying about the 4% rule that some find comfort in.

You're missing the fact that you would be very hard pressed to find anyone on here who plans to blindly follow the 4% rule - despite the fact that it would have worked in 95% of past time spans.

LOL.  "Me" Missing?  Did you completely miss that I specifically pointed out the long sticky thread?  Everything is rationalized there, you didn't add anything new.   And the "past" is not the future.

American GenX

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #124 on: December 31, 2021, 09:45:37 AM »
This thread is heading towards full Financial Samurai mode… is that some FIRE specific form of Godwin’s law?

Yeah, it's like they've forgotten than a risk-free alternative product that pays out into perpetuity and shifts the risk onto the provider has already been invented...

A good friend of mine fat-FIREd about 15 years ago, in his early 40s. His strategy was to annuitize for basic living expenses, maintain a 80-20 portfolio, hold off on taking $$ from the IRA until required to, and use SS as a buffer down the road.

When asked, he will say his strategy is like a 3% SWR… He never looked back and is very happy with his plan.
Where am I again??!??!!!

Work til you're normal retirement age buy an annuity? But you know have a "fired" wife who stays at home and takes care of the kids.  It's like advice from a boomer about the traditional American path.

LOL  How is retiring in your early 40's considered the traditional American path?  That would be more like retiring at the full retirement age of 67, or as early as 62, and immediately taking SS.

American GenX

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #125 on: December 31, 2021, 10:02:20 AM »
Can I pick all of the above? Seriously I mean who really draws 4% exactly every year? I think the biggest factor of a "successful" ER is flexibility. Some years you may withdraw 4%. Other years may be less or more. I plan on continuing with some occasional side work and my spouse plans on finding a fun fulfilling part time job. I have no idea how that will affect our SWR. I gave up trying to do withdrawal calculations. I just find it easier to keep an eye on our money and adjust our life situation accordingly.

Actually flexibility might be a less useful strategy than one might think:
https://earlyretirementnow.com/2018/05/09/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-24-flexibility-myths-vs-reality/

With all the comments about being flexible with their WR's, I think I a lot of people are going to be sad to read that it might not save them.

boarder42

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #126 on: December 31, 2021, 10:42:07 AM »
This thread is heading towards full Financial Samurai mode… is that some FIRE specific form of Godwin’s law?

Yeah, it's like they've forgotten than a risk-free alternative product that pays out into perpetuity and shifts the risk onto the provider has already been invented...

A good friend of mine fat-FIREd about 15 years ago, in his early 40s. His strategy was to annuitize for basic living expenses, maintain a 80-20 portfolio, hold off on taking $$ from the IRA until required to, and use SS as a buffer down the road.

When asked, he will say his strategy is like a 3% SWR… He never looked back and is very happy with his plan.
Where am I again??!??!!!

Work til you're normal retirement age buy an annuity? But you know have a "fired" wife who stays at home and takes care of the kids.  It's like advice from a boomer about the traditional American path.

LOL  How is retiring in your early 40's considered the traditional American path?  That would be more like retiring at the full retirement age of 67, or as early as 62, and immediately taking SS.

Clearly you should go research the posts and threads of the poster I was responding to. It's highly unlikely 40 is the age of the person he's even talking about as he doesn't even understand Phil and bill

Telecaster

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #127 on: December 31, 2021, 10:52:04 AM »
Ironically those who stay in stressful work situations long enough to get to a sub-3% SWR pre-FIRE are probably shortening their time in retirement significantly due to the damage chronic stress is doing to their health.  For me the risk that I might have to have a simpler lifestyle as I get older is worth the benefit of being able to get older!

As @arebelspy put it (paraphrasing) you are taking a risk that if the 4% WR is too high, you could wind up busting your retirement at the end.

But if you work the extra years, you are guaranteeing a busted retirement at the beginning. 

lhamo

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #128 on: December 31, 2021, 11:12:46 AM »
Ironically those who stay in stressful work situations long enough to get to a sub-3% SWR pre-FIRE are probably shortening their time in retirement significantly due to the damage chronic stress is doing to their health.  For me the risk that I might have to have a simpler lifestyle as I get older is worth the benefit of being able to get older!

As @arebelspy put it (paraphrasing) you are taking a risk that if the 4% WR is too high, you could wind up busting your retirement at the end.

But if you work the extra years, you are guaranteeing a busted retirement at the beginning.

OOOH -- I like that!

I think I was similar to most people who FIREd pre-age 50 or so in that I recognized that if things didn't go according to plan I might need to find a way to bring in additional income to pad the stash.  I even had a PT consulting gig fall in my lap the week I quit my FT job.  I ended up backing out of that position as it morphed into something I no longer wanted due to a management change (putting the $2k I earned from a few hours of work into my Roth).  I applied for a few other things 6-12 months in but those didn't pan out.  Part of the urge to apply for things was that at that point we had not yet sold our condo in China, which we still had a mortgage on and that represented a big chunk of our net worth.  I relaxed a lot once we got a contract signed on that, further still when we got the money out of China (a complicated and nerve-wracking process), and really settled into the FIRE mindset once we purchased our place in the US and our spending settled out into the 3% WR range.  Since the stash has continued to grow faster than our spending has increased, we are at 2%.

I am still open to returning to work at some point if there are compelling reasons to do so.  Career type job not required.  I could easily cover basic living costs by being somebody's nanny or household manager if I needed to -- I'd probably prefer that to working a retail or food service job.  But since my WR will drop to around 1% once I start taking SS I doubt that financial need is going to push me back to generating income.  Hopefully I'll end up grannying my kids kids for free as my next gig.  Likely still about 10 years out from that possibility.

clarkfan1979

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #129 on: December 31, 2021, 11:36:26 AM »
For people that have highly paid and specialized positions, I think it's ok to work an extra 1-2 years, just to make sure. These are people that don't really have the option of going back to their old job or getting consulting work.

For people that can go back to their old job and/or do consulting, you don't have to be as conservative.

Just my two cents.

boarder42

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #130 on: December 31, 2021, 11:43:19 AM »
For people that have highly paid and specialized positions, I think it's ok to work an extra 1-2 years, just to make sure. These are people that don't really have the option of going back to their old job or getting consulting work.

For people that can go back to their old job and/or do consulting, you don't have to be as conservative.

Just my two cents.

This is extremely rare

DaTrill

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #131 on: December 31, 2021, 02:20:58 PM »
I suspect a statistician would do what many (probably most) of us are planning on doing, which is not blindly withdraw 4% regardless of market conditions.  They'd likely have several layers of back up plans, like the ability to cut spending in down markets and an income stream they can fairly easily ramp up to earn a bit of money to decrease the amount needed for withdraw.

My plan is 4%, more or less.  But not blindly.  Bad market? I don't go on vacation that year and trim the grocery budget by adding an extra meatless meal.  And I'll ramp up my easily scalable side gig and/or find a new one to bring in a few thousand extra dollars. 

So yes, it is like saying ice cream makes you fat.  But I think very few people plan a diet of entirely ice cream, and they are capable of eating ice cream only in moderation, and of cutting back on ice cream intake if their pants start getting tight.   I'm not going to continue eating three scoops of ice cream per week, even as I start gaining weight. So I still feel comfortable having ice cream in my overall diet, even if it is true that too much ice cream makes you fat.

I like ice cream.

It's not the 4% that is the issue, it's the over 30-year retirement duration that causes the issue with the estimate. 

PhilB

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #132 on: December 31, 2021, 02:22:28 PM »
Can I pick all of the above? Seriously I mean who really draws 4% exactly every year? I think the biggest factor of a "successful" ER is flexibility. Some years you may withdraw 4%. Other years may be less or more. I plan on continuing with some occasional side work and my spouse plans on finding a fun fulfilling part time job. I have no idea how that will affect our SWR. I gave up trying to do withdrawal calculations. I just find it easier to keep an eye on our money and adjust our life situation accordingly.

Actually flexibility might be a less useful strategy than one might think:
https://earlyretirementnow.com/2018/05/09/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-24-flexibility-myths-vs-reality/

With all the comments about being flexible with their WR's, I think I a lot of people are going to be sad to read that it might not save them.

I think a lot of people here are an awful lot more flexible than that guy thinks.  His 1929 tighten-the-belt scenario is a case in point.  To make it work you need to cut withdrawals by 69% for five years tight at the start, then 4% will work thereafter.  He claims that's impossible because you wouldn't know that you needed to cut by 69%, and who can cut that far?  I'm sure I'm not alone in saying that my reaction to a market crash that severe at the start of my FIRE wouldn't have been to cut by 69%, it would have been to cut by 100%.  Get a job of some kind just to cover basic living expenses and wait it out.  We're not after a guarantee we never have to work again, we're taking a calculated risk with a great pay off if it works - Freedom.

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #133 on: December 31, 2021, 02:30:08 PM »
Can I pick all of the above? Seriously I mean who really draws 4% exactly every year? I think the biggest factor of a "successful" ER is flexibility. Some years you may withdraw 4%. Other years may be less or more. I plan on continuing with some occasional side work and my spouse plans on finding a fun fulfilling part time job. I have no idea how that will affect our SWR. I gave up trying to do withdrawal calculations. I just find it easier to keep an eye on our money and adjust our life situation accordingly.

Actually flexibility might be a less useful strategy than one might think:
https://earlyretirementnow.com/2018/05/09/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-24-flexibility-myths-vs-reality/

With all the comments about being flexible with their WR's, I think I a lot of people are going to be sad to read that it might not save them.

I think a lot of people here are an awful lot more flexible than that guy thinks.  His 1929 tighten-the-belt scenario is a case in point.  To make it work you need to cut withdrawals by 69% for five years tight at the start, then 4% will work thereafter.  He claims that's impossible because you wouldn't know that you needed to cut by 69%, and who can cut that far?  I'm sure I'm not alone in saying that my reaction to a market crash that severe at the start of my FIRE wouldn't have been to cut by 69%, it would have been to cut by 100%.  Get a job of some kind just to cover basic living expenses and wait it out.  We're not after a guarantee we never have to work again, we're taking a calculated risk with a great pay off if it works - Freedom.

I would cut back, but plan to return to work when the situation stabilized, not in the middle of depression.

DaTrill

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #134 on: December 31, 2021, 02:37:55 PM »
A statistician would realize the difference between a 5% and 1% failure rate. A financial planner would look at back up plans, and a human being will decide what their individual risk tolerance is. Much of the "there might be worse co diction in the future than the Great depression and 2 world wars" is rank speculation. Yes, it is possible that something worse than the prior events will happen (the n for big events is pretty small), but we could also see single payer Healthcare in the US or cold fusion that would help mustachians.  Aggressively low WR mostly indicate a low tolerance for risk. That is totally fine. It does not mean that others do not understand the underlying math and assumptions.

That said, as llhsmo says, if there are specific data driven resources  to learn from, I am personally game and willing yo adjust (I avoid YouTube videos as IMHO they are a slow way to learn things).

Another more complex statistical issue is "sample vs population".  When estimates only use US stock returns for the last 100 years (sample), this analysis is ignoring the previous 5,000 years of asset returns in human history (population).  If South Sea preferred shares, Tulips R'Us picks and shovels, Napolean's bar and grille, Marie's cakes and confections, Genghis' balloons, Wright Brothers Air, Pompeii Property and Casualty, Tickle Me Elmos, Madoff and Assocaites, are included in the analysis, the long term returns for the population of assets are well under those of the sample of US equities over the last 100 years.  This suggests one needs to be much more conservative in their analysis or assume the human condition for US CEO's and workers has evolved to avoid or mitigate the above mentioned -100% return investments.     

S&P 500 returns are standard and easy to collect, but a very small sample of assets and across time but widely used without question.             

Villanelle

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #135 on: December 31, 2021, 02:47:30 PM »
Can I pick all of the above? Seriously I mean who really draws 4% exactly every year? I think the biggest factor of a "successful" ER is flexibility. Some years you may withdraw 4%. Other years may be less or more. I plan on continuing with some occasional side work and my spouse plans on finding a fun fulfilling part time job. I have no idea how that will affect our SWR. I gave up trying to do withdrawal calculations. I just find it easier to keep an eye on our money and adjust our life situation accordingly.

Actually flexibility might be a less useful strategy than one might think:
https://earlyretirementnow.com/2018/05/09/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-24-flexibility-myths-vs-reality/

With all the comments about being flexible with their WR's, I think I a lot of people are going to be sad to read that it might not save them.

I think a lot of people here are an awful lot more flexible than that guy thinks.  His 1929 tighten-the-belt scenario is a case in point.  To make it work you need to cut withdrawals by 69% for five years tight at the start, then 4% will work thereafter.  He claims that's impossible because you wouldn't know that you needed to cut by 69%, and who can cut that far?  I'm sure I'm not alone in saying that my reaction to a market crash that severe at the start of my FIRE wouldn't have been to cut by 69%, it would have been to cut by 100%.  Get a job of some kind just to cover basic living expenses and wait it out.  We're not after a guarantee we never have to work again, we're taking a calculated risk with a great pay off if it works - Freedom.

Or cut by 40%, bring in some extra income but not up to your old full salary, and then stay at 3.75% for as long as needed instead of going back up to 4%.  And get a roommate for one year.  (I don't like the idea of having a roommate, but I figure I can handle anything for about a year, and that's another ~10-12000/year (seems like the gong rate for a room in one of our likely retirement locations is $1000/mo.)

Or a million other permutations of the possible strategies. 

And one thing about SORR and the fact that they are most damaging at the beginning of your retirement is that the beginning of your retirement is likely when it is easiest to find some work, because your resume and network are most current.  (I also acknowledge that a down market is the worst time to find employment.)  Ten years after you've quit, it's going to be more challenging to find work than 6 months after you quit, all other things being equal. 

clarkfan1979

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #136 on: December 31, 2021, 03:11:00 PM »
For people that have highly paid and specialized positions, I think it's ok to work an extra 1-2 years, just to make sure. These are people that don't really have the option of going back to their old job or getting consulting work.

For people that can go back to their old job and/or do consulting, you don't have to be as conservative.

Just my two cents.

This is extremely rare

I gave two different examples. Which one is rare?

Based on my own personal example at my institution, someone who has 25+ years of service at the current institution, their salary is around $80,000 and you also get $25,000 worth of benefits (401K contribution and health care contribution). This is $105,000 total and you teach 10 classes/year. It's $10,500/course.

If someone ends up leaving one year too early and they want to go back part-time they will be compensated at $2,200/course. It would be reasonable to teach 2 courses/semester or 4 courses/year for an extra 8,800/year.

The penalty for leaving one year too early is having to work an additional 11 years part-time to make it back up. Getting your old job back is not an option because it most likely doesn't exist. They hired someone else and the new person will probably have the job for another 25 years. If you got a job at another college, you would most likely have to move and take a 30% pay cut because their is pay limit on new hires. Our current pay band for new hires is 44K to 54K. 

PhilB

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #137 on: December 31, 2021, 03:43:27 PM »
For people that have highly paid and specialized positions, I think it's ok to work an extra 1-2 years, just to make sure. These are people that don't really have the option of going back to their old job or getting consulting work.

For people that can go back to their old job and/or do consulting, you don't have to be as conservative.

Just my two cents.

This is extremely rare

I gave two different examples. Which one is rare?

Based on my own personal example at my institution, someone who has 25+ years of service at the current institution, their salary is around $80,000 and you also get $25,000 worth of benefits (401K contribution and health care contribution). This is $105,000 total and you teach 10 classes/year. It's $10,500/course.

If someone ends up leaving one year too early and they want to go back part-time they will be compensated at $2,200/course. It would be reasonable to teach 2 courses/semester or 4 courses/year for an extra 8,800/year.

The penalty for leaving one year too early is having to work an additional 11 years part-time to make it back up. Getting your old job back is not an option because it most likely doesn't exist. They hired someone else and the new person will probably have the job for another 25 years. If you got a job at another college, you would most likely have to move and take a 30% pay cut because their is pay limit on new hires. Our current pay band for new hires is 44K to 54K.

I agree with the basic premise that being in that situation would (and did) make me lean towards a slightly later retirement than if I'd been confident of walking straight into another job that paid as well if needed.  I only went a little bit late though, because the whole point is you don't need to replace your old salary if everything goes wrong.  To avoid selling at the bottom you only need to earn enough to live on while you wait it out.  We had a 2/3 savings rate pre FIRE and still had lots of expenses that could have been cut if necessary.  We'd only need to pick up about 25% of my former salary between us to easily cover expenses and there are lots of ways we could do that.

boarder42

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #138 on: December 31, 2021, 03:59:41 PM »
For people that have highly paid and specialized positions, I think it's ok to work an extra 1-2 years, just to make sure. These are people that don't really have the option of going back to their old job or getting consulting work.

For people that can go back to their old job and/or do consulting, you don't have to be as conservative.

Just my two cents.

This is extremely rare

I gave two different examples. Which one is rare?

Based on my own personal example at my institution, someone who has 25+ years of service at the current institution, their salary is around $80,000 and you also get $25,000 worth of benefits (401K contribution and health care contribution). This is $105,000 total and you teach 10 classes/year. It's $10,500/course.

If someone ends up leaving one year too early and they want to go back part-time they will be compensated at $2,200/course. It would be reasonable to teach 2 courses/semester or 4 courses/year for an extra 8,800/year.

The penalty for leaving one year too early is having to work an additional 11 years part-time to make it back up. Getting your old job back is not an option because it most likely doesn't exist. They hired someone else and the new person will probably have the job for another 25 years. If you got a job at another college, you would most likely have to move and take a 30% pay cut because their is pay limit on new hires. Our current pay band for new hires is 44K to 54K.

You're looking at returning to the exact same job. Which is also shortsighted. If what you're teaching is even partially marketable in society then you should be able to easily consult as needed. If it's not marketable in that way maybe we should question why it's being taught for a fee?

Morning Glory

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #139 on: December 31, 2021, 04:19:07 PM »
Can I pick all of the above? Seriously I mean who really draws 4% exactly every year? I think the biggest factor of a "successful" ER is flexibility. Some years you may withdraw 4%. Other years may be less or more. I plan on continuing with some occasional side work and my spouse plans on finding a fun fulfilling part time job. I have no idea how that will affect our SWR. I gave up trying to do withdrawal calculations. I just find it easier to keep an eye on our money and adjust our life situation accordingly.

Actually flexibility might be a less useful strategy than one might think:
https://earlyretirementnow.com/2018/05/09/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-24-flexibility-myths-vs-reality/

With all the comments about being flexible with their WR's, I think I a lot of people are going to be sad to read that it might not save them.

I think a lot of people here are an awful lot more flexible than that guy thinks.  His 1929 tighten-the-belt scenario is a case in point.  To make it work you need to cut withdrawals by 69% for five years tight at the start, then 4% will work thereafter.  He claims that's impossible because you wouldn't know that you needed to cut by 69%, and who can cut that far?  I'm sure I'm not alone in saying that my reaction to a market crash that severe at the start of my FIRE wouldn't have been to cut by 69%, it would have been to cut by 100%.  Get a job of some kind just to cover basic living expenses and wait it out.  We're not after a guarantee we never have to work again, we're taking a calculated risk with a great pay off if it works - Freedom.

I would cut back, but plan to return to work when the situation stabilized, not in the middle of depression.
I would probably find a pt job asap if there really was a 50% drop, just to avoid withdrawing at the bottom.  Short term travel nursing or something. Hoping not to have to though.  I wish I'd taken a career break before reaching my fi number.

American GenX

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #140 on: December 31, 2021, 05:22:55 PM »
This thread is heading towards full Financial Samurai mode… is that some FIRE specific form of Godwin’s law?

Yeah, it's like they've forgotten than a risk-free alternative product that pays out into perpetuity and shifts the risk onto the provider has already been invented...

A good friend of mine fat-FIREd about 15 years ago, in his early 40s. His strategy was to annuitize for basic living expenses, maintain a 80-20 portfolio, hold off on taking $$ from the IRA until required to, and use SS as a buffer down the road.

When asked, he will say his strategy is like a 3% SWR… He never looked back and is very happy with his plan.
Where am I again??!??!!!

Work til you're normal retirement age buy an annuity? But you know have a "fired" wife who stays at home and takes care of the kids.  It's like advice from a boomer about the traditional American path.

LOL  How is retiring in your early 40's considered the traditional American path?  That would be more like retiring at the full retirement age of 67, or as early as 62, and immediately taking SS.

Clearly you should go research the posts and threads of the poster I was responding to. It's highly unlikely 40 is the age of the person he's even talking about as he doesn't even understand Phil and bill

Well, I'm not going to research his posting history, but I was taking his word for it on the anecdote that his friend was in his early 40's when he fat-FIRED.  That would be quite young - certainly younger than this GenXer who probably has OMY.

MoseyingAlong

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #141 on: December 31, 2021, 09:12:06 PM »
.....  Get a job of some kind just to cover basic living expenses and wait it out.  We're not after a guarantee we never have to work again, we're taking a calculated risk with a great pay off if it works - Freedom.

I would cut back, but plan to return to work when the situation stabilized, not in the middle of depression.

Recently read some letters written in late 1931. The writer was a healthy, young, educated male in a major city with many ties to the community. And he was struggling to find work, any kind of work.
Lots of looking. Sold greeting cards, probably door to door, in late November. Worked at the post office for a couple days in December. One place was only taking applications from married men and he wasn't.

So I think the plan of cutting back but not expecting to easily pick up a job would be wise.

Personally I'll continue to have a 4+ year CD/US government bond ladder for my regular living expenses. Yes, this has been a drag on my portfolio growth over the last few years but the peace of mind has been so worth it.

boarder42

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #142 on: December 31, 2021, 09:31:03 PM »
.....  Get a job of some kind just to cover basic living expenses and wait it out.  We're not after a guarantee we never have to work again, we're taking a calculated risk with a great pay off if it works - Freedom.

I would cut back, but plan to return to work when the situation stabilized, not in the middle of depression.

Recently read some letters written in late 1931. The writer was a healthy, young, educated male in a major city with many ties to the community. And he was struggling to find work, any kind of work.
Lots of looking. Sold greeting cards, probably door to door, in late November. Worked at the post office for a couple days in December. One place was only taking applications from married men and he wasn't.

So I think the plan of cutting back but not expecting to easily pick up a job would be wise.

Personally I'll continue to have a 4+ year CD/US government bond ladder for my regular living expenses. Yes, this has been a drag on my portfolio growth over the last few years but the peace of mind has been so worth it.

Can only do what makes you mentally well. You made it.  Make your life easy and healthy.

CCCA

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Re: How much of a buffer did/will you retire with? Please read details closely
« Reply #143 on: December 31, 2021, 10:53:49 PM »
Happy new year everyone.

I put in 2%.

I took some time off of work a few years ago when we were around 4% (not including a modest pension I can take in a few more years or SS which we can take in alot more years), but since the market went bonkers the last few years, it's grown considerably and now we are at 2%. This is spite of my wife and i mostly working extremely part time (think ~20% time) at our old jobs, so we technically aren't retired.  Pretty safe to say we'll be all right and most likely we'll have way way too much money when we hit our later years.



« Last Edit: January 05, 2022, 12:50:27 AM by CCCA »