Author Topic: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?  (Read 24967 times)

frugalnacho

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #50 on: August 26, 2014, 07:56:26 AM »
Man I think some of you are insane.  A 2% swr?  That would last 50 years if you didn't get any investment returns (other than keeping up with inflation).  That's insane! Even if you retire at 30 years old and only match inflation, that gives you until 80 years old.  How could you possibly need that much of a buffer? I'm waiting for the person to come in and say even that's not safe enough and the only way to truly be safe is to have a 0% swr and continue working an additional 20-30 years. 

Given my age (plan to FIRE by 40, probably die by 75-80), my ability to be flexible with my spending, my ability to adjust my FIRE date based on market conditions at the time I FIRE or shortly thereafter, and that both me and my wife will be collecting SS eventually, I think a 4% swr will have 100% success.  I think kids and life in general might throw a wrench in my plans, so my numbers will have to be reevaluated in the future, but by the time i'm 40 I should have a pretty good baseline for spending established and will be comfortable pulling the trigger once I hit 25X my spending.  I anticipate this to still be like 9 years away though, so maybe I will change my tune by that point.

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #51 on: August 26, 2014, 08:54:39 AM »
Man I think some of you are insane.  A 2% swr?  That would last 50 years if you didn't get any investment returns (other than keeping up with inflation).  That's insane! Even if you retire at 30 years old and only match inflation, that gives you until 80 years old.  How could you possibly need that much of a buffer? I'm waiting for the person to come in and say even that's not safe enough and the only way to truly be safe is to have a 0% swr and continue working an additional 20-30 years. 

Given my age (plan to FIRE by 40, probably die by 75-80), my ability to be flexible with my spending, my ability to adjust my FIRE date based on market conditions at the time I FIRE or shortly thereafter, and that both me and my wife will be collecting SS eventually, I think a 4% swr will have 100% success.  I think kids and life in general might throw a wrench in my plans, so my numbers will have to be reevaluated in the future, but by the time i'm 40 I should have a pretty good baseline for spending established and will be comfortable pulling the trigger once I hit 25X my spending.  I anticipate this to still be like 9 years away though, so maybe I will change my tune by that point.

I'm glad someone else feels this way. When I read the assumptions in the Trinity studies and the follow ups by Wade Pfau, I think "Wow, they are being so ridiculously conservative compared to a real retiree that how the hell can't a 4% withdrawal rate work out?" I can adjust my spending, I don't need to follow inflation, I can get a part time job to supplement my income especially while I'm a really early retiree (when the income would help my chances the greatest), I'll collect some social security, etc.

Even if 40 years from now, someone reruns the study with the same assumptions and finds that this time period we are in has a SWR of 2.5%, I'll still think that a 4% SWR for a real person would have been fine.


frugalnacho

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #52 on: August 26, 2014, 09:19:20 AM »
I'm going to have more than a bare bones retirement too.  I'm not going to have a crazy budget for excess, but there will surely be ways I could sacrifice and save money if the market totally tanks on me in the first 10 years.   A small chance I might have to forgo vacations and luxuries for a couple years in a depression is much better than a 100% chance of wasting an additional 3-5 years at a soul sucking job.   That is a risk I am willing to take.

Eric

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #53 on: August 26, 2014, 10:04:52 AM »
I'm glad someone else feels this way. When I read the assumptions in the Trinity studies and the follow ups by Wade Pfau, I think "Wow, they are being so ridiculously conservative compared to a real retiree that how the hell can't a 4% withdrawal rate work out?" I can adjust my spending, I don't need to follow inflation, I can get a part time job to supplement my income especially while I'm a really early retiree (when the income would help my chances the greatest), I'll collect some social security, etc.

I like Wade Pfau a lot.  He's really sharp.  But he's also writing and thinking from the perspective of a financial planner, so he has to be conservative by nature because this is advice that he's giving his clients.  It's a "cover your ass" scenario.  That doesn't make him wrong of course, but it's a completely different perspective than what I (or you) have.  Especially when you consider that 4% is sort of a worst case scenario.

For instance, instead of looking at a failure rate of 90% and thinking there's a 10% chance that I could run out of money, I look at it and think that there's a 90% chance that working another year would be working too long.  Probability over possibility is probably the optimism gun, but there's no 100% guarantee, so at some point you'll have to trust the odds and take the plunge anyway.  Plus as you and others have mentioned, we'll almost certainly have other income streams that are not included in these simulations, even if that's a paltry SS payment or a few hundred or thousand here or there from enjoyable part time work or hobby.

MooseOutFront

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #54 on: August 26, 2014, 12:00:04 PM »
Yes to all of these page 2 posts.  When you think about it the early retiree is actually taking less risk planning on a 4% SWR than the 67 yr old retiree.  A 40 year old has lots more options to change the math as needed as the years go by.

MandyM

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #55 on: August 26, 2014, 02:08:14 PM »
Amen to the above. A crazy large buffer is akin to OMY syndrome. I know for me, getting my expenses low (around $20K a year) is key to feeling secure with a tiny buffer. If I need to start earning money to cover shortfalls, that is a whole lot easier at this level than if I'm spending $50K/year.

Etihwdivadnai

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #56 on: August 26, 2014, 02:29:29 PM »
We are aiming at annual spendable income provided by 3% SWR for a 35-40 year retirement.
And 3% SWR provides about 25% *above* regular living costs (which includes hobbies, at least 1 basic localish foreign holiday per year and running costs of 1 car)
I.e. this 25% excess pays for luxuries /  one-off capital spends.
Oh and this disregards any UK state pension, which if it ever has any actual residual value is currently just counted as a bonus
But may get entirely consumed by additional health-care costs in later life.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2014, 02:36:34 PM by Etihwdivadnai »

hybrid

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #57 on: August 26, 2014, 02:40:40 PM »
Like a few others I have a hard time determining what my final number will look like because my wife will draw a pension in a few years, full SS in another eight after that, we should have passive income from rental property, etc. The 4% rule, whether you believe in it or not, doesn't have much meaning for us. For us it is much more about how much money will be coming in from various income streams compared to our expenses.

Cecil

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #58 on: August 26, 2014, 05:48:38 PM »
I've been toying with the idea of a 5% withdrawal rate on the main nest egg. So 30k spend = 600k investments.

When I consider that my wife wants to keep working part-time, and then will collect a pension in 20 years or so, and then OAS/CPP kick in after 30, and that I could pick up part-time work if I needed, it doesn't seem *that* risky any more.

Am I crazy?

G-dog

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #59 on: August 26, 2014, 08:04:10 PM »
Hmm, not sure if these are buffers per se vs. what ifs:
I don't count future SS as part of my stache
I don't count the value of my house
I don't count the projected decrease in taxes post- FIRE
I will likely FIRE from my career at 55, trigger work pension for the health insurance benefit BUT get a low key job to allow me to:
     NOT touch any other staches
     Generate earned income for Roth account and other investing
     Cover the bills/expense  I pay now ( so my SO doesn't have to and so my staches don't have to)
My SO will keep working

NWOutlier

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #60 on: August 26, 2014, 08:08:24 PM »
Man I think some of you are insane.  A 2% swr?  That would last 50 years if you didn't get any investment returns (other than keeping up with inflation).  That's insane! Even if you retire at 30 years old and only match inflation, that gives you until 80 years old.  How could you possibly need that much of a buffer? I'm waiting for the person to come in and say even that's not safe enough and the only way to truly be safe is to have a 0% swr and continue working an additional 20-30 years. 

Given my age (plan to FIRE by 40, probably die by 75-80), my ability to be flexible with my spending, my ability to adjust my FIRE date based on market conditions at the time I FIRE or shortly thereafter, and that both me and my wife will be collecting SS eventually, I think a 4% swr will have 100% success.  I think kids and life in general might throw a wrench in my plans, so my numbers will have to be reevaluated in the future, but by the time i'm 40 I should have a pretty good baseline for spending established and will be comfortable pulling the trigger once I hit 25X my spending.  I anticipate this to still be like 9 years away though, so maybe I will change my tune by that point.


Generational wealth, that's one reason.  I hope to leave millions behind, but not for the kids to spend, but to live off of... work if they want, on what they want... teach them to give, donate time and money... but that 'nut' or nest egg needs to be large to accomplish this... an egg that takes generations to build.

I don't believe in living life, spending everything that I have and leave nothing for the family... people complain about wealth inequality - well, then don't spend everything and borrow more... spend less than you make, invest the rest, build it huge, direct the money into things you feel passionate about... could be green technology, could be housing, could be education in your area or schools...  something.. anything... but it's specific to you, the individual.

totally random speak up there and not thought through.. but let's see what happens.

Steve

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #61 on: August 26, 2014, 08:20:50 PM »
Buffer is a paid for house (that I can downsize if needed) and approx. $300K in savings (which is ALL my money). I retired at 42, lived on some savings, and then a government pension at age 50 that covers all my expenses. No heirs so have no problem using up all my buffer money thru out my lifetime.

Blindsquirrel

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #62 on: August 26, 2014, 09:13:54 PM »
  Our buffer will be huge I have to say. To the point of wretched excess. Not the world best at being moustachian but working on it as we go. Our expenses are on the high side but we save well over 50% of our income.  Our goals to retire about 50ish now 46 yo.
1. Paid off residence.
2. 2 years living expenses in cash/taxable accounts.
3. I would like gross passive income off of mostly paid off rental houses approx 200K-count on 100k or so after expenses.
We are technically FI now but we provide support for our aged parents in excess of 20k+  a year and this goes up way faster than inflation. Even  with parental support we are pretty much FI. My worry wart side says work a few more years before we turn off the fire hose of cash that our paid employment gives us. However, we should be about bullet proof when we pull the plug on our jobs.

Workinghard

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #63 on: August 27, 2014, 02:26:18 AM »

Generational wealth, that's one reason.  I hope to leave millions behind, but not for the kids to spend, but to live off of... work if they want, on what they want... teach them to give, donate time and money... but that 'nut' or nest egg needs to be large to accomplish this... an egg that takes generations to build.

I don't believe in living life, spending everything that I have and leave nothing for the family... people complain about wealth inequality - well, then don't spend everything and borrow more... spend less than you make, invest the rest, build it huge, direct the money into things you feel passionate about... could be green technology, could be housing, could be education in your area or schools...  something.. anything... but it's specific to you, the individual.

totally random speak up there and not thought through.. but let's see what happens.

Steve

I've thought about generational wealth. It won't affect when we retire, since that won't be early-at least not in my husband's case. My brother and I are (or will be) first generation millionaires. He's already a multi-millionaire and we'll reach it end of the year or early spring. Interestingly, our young adult children, in their 20's, are also on their way. They're making between 60-90k, contribributing to 401ks, and building different models with different assumptions. It's nice to know that they will do well by their own diligence and hard work.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #64 on: August 27, 2014, 06:52:25 AM »
We have pretty much reached our number with a bit more, but if we continued to work until age 59 at our current saving rate and investing, it is possible we could have 5 to 6 million dollars.   This would be awesome if I knew I would live to 90 without getting cancer, heart disease, etc.   Hard to develop a buffer against cancer...

JGB

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #65 on: August 27, 2014, 07:44:07 AM »
I've been toying with the idea of a 5% withdrawal rate on the main nest egg. So 30k spend = 600k investments.

When I consider that my wife wants to keep working part-time, and then will collect a pension in 20 years or so, and then OAS/CPP kick in after 30, and that I could pick up part-time work if I needed, it doesn't seem *that* risky any more.

Am I crazy?
MadFientist stated in a couple of places that he was looking at 5% for his main RE amount, based on many of the factors others have stated here, along with an expectation of doing side work at various points during RE.

I've considered somewhere between 4% and 5% as well, but figure that the final decision will come after I get to that point, as a number of life changes could be on the horizon for when I would otherwise hit the 5% number, some of which (like a potential child) could either increase our expenses or decrease my willingness to tolerate risk.

begood

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #66 on: August 27, 2014, 10:18:49 AM »
The more I think about all this, the more my head spins!

As of today, 4% of our combined retirement and taxable accounts would be $60K/year, which just so happens to be our current yearly expenses. In retirement, I would expect our expenses to go down a little, but not a lot.

We actually have $300K more than that in those accounts, but we're planning to buy a house for cash eventually (we don't have any equity; long story), so I'm deducting the maximum we might spend on that from the total. It also doesn't count college costs for the kid, but that's six years away and I hope the accounts will continue to grow between now and then.

We don't want to be landlords and are not DIYish at all, so rental properties don't seem like a good fit for us; not to mention we haven't decided whether we're going to stay here in PA or move back down South. I don't want to own property in a town where I am not.

Anyway, even with the house to buy and the college to pay for, I think we will be okay because we're close enough to SS age (12 years to 62 for me; 13 for spouse) that I think we will get at least some of what we expect. In addition, my spouse will get a $32K/year pension at 65 (15.5 years). The pension isn't adjusted for inflation (that I can tell - it doesn't say it is in his paperwork), so its power will certainly erode, but it's still something - a revenue stream not dependent on the market.

So our buffers would be:

1) 2 years living expenses in the bank

2) SS - hoping for minimum of $20K/year

3) Pension - $32K/year - not inflation-adjusted

So here's my question:

If we have enough to retire, does that make it MORE advantageous to take SS at 62 or less? Should we take it as early as possible since we know we can use our stache if we need it later? Or do I have it ass backwards and you only take it at 62 if you DON'T have enough to retire otherwise?

 
« Last Edit: August 27, 2014, 10:52:06 AM by begood »

Workinghard

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #67 on: August 27, 2014, 11:12:36 AM »
Begood, I wrestled with the SS question for months. Playing around with online calculators (T Rowe Price)  helped me in coming up with a game plan. When the time gets closer I'll revisit it again. I am planning on doing 401k/IRA conversions to Roths between retiring and drawing SS.

http://individual.troweprice.com/public/Retail/Retirement/Social-Security-Tool

begood

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #68 on: August 27, 2014, 11:16:49 AM »
Begood, I wrestled with the SS question for months. Playing around with online calculators (T Rowe Price)  helped me in coming up with a game plan. When the time gets closer I'll revisit it again. I am planning on doing 401k/IRA conversions to Roths between retiring and drawing SS.

http://individual.troweprice.com/public/Retail/Retirement/Social-Security-Tool

Thanks, Workinghard! I will go play around!

The Roth thing makes my eyes cross, but I will make it a goal to edumacate myself. :)

Jon_Snow

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #69 on: August 27, 2014, 04:44:44 PM »
We have pretty much reached our number with a bit more, but if we continued to work until age 59 at our current saving rate and investing, it is possible we could have 5 to 6 million dollars.   This would be awesome if I knew I would live to 90 without getting cancer, heart disease, etc.   Hard to develop a buffer against cancer...

I hear you on this. When I run the numbers and project what our net worth could be if we both worked until 60, I get a 6 million dollar figure as well. Yet, at 42, we are north of 2M... not shabby, and by the time my wife hangs em' up in 5 to 8 years, we should around 3M.  I think we will never be able to raise our spending sufficiently to eat into this lesser sum, let alone 6M. Given the sun and chemical exposure I have experience in 24 years on my job, cancer is a real fear for me. Time to get out.

Working till 60 makes zero sense for us on a multitude of levels.

Workinghard

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #70 on: August 27, 2014, 04:55:20 PM »
We have pretty much reached our number with a bit more, but if we continued to work until age 59 at our current saving rate and investing, it is possible we could have 5 to 6 million dollars.   This would be awesome if I knew I would live to 90 without getting cancer, heart disease, etc.   Hard to develop a buffer against cancer...

I hear you on this. When I run the numbers and project what our net worth could be if we both worked until 60, I get a 6 million dollar figure as well. Yet, at 42, we are north of 2M... not shabby, and by the time my wife hangs em' up in 5 to 8 years, we should around 3M.  I think we will never be able to raise our spending sufficiently to eat into this lesser sum, let alone 6M. Given the sun and chemical exposure I have experience in 24 years on my job, cancer is a real fear for me. Time to get out.

Working till 60 makes zero sense for us on a multitude of levels.

You guys are my heroes! Although Vanguard shows a possible projection of 5-6M at age 90, I'm being more conservative and hope to just maintain our stache around 1M when we get there. Course that includes selling our home. It's just amazing to me that we've come so far in 22 years which included paying off my dh 40K debt, putting a kid through college, and only one income around 50-60k for 10 years. It can be done!

Abe

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #71 on: August 27, 2014, 06:47:11 PM »
I think it's worth clarifying the difference between "needing/wanting" a buffer and having a buffer because there's more money than one can spend. The latter doesn't indicate an inability to understand the limits of what money can do, or insanity, as some have suggested. It just means you have a lot left over.

begood

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #72 on: August 28, 2014, 07:19:21 AM »
Here's why I lean toward the "buffer up that 'stache" end of the spectrum:

When my mother died in 2003, my father was 83 years old. He had an annual income of $75000 from three income streams: military pension, state pension, and SS. He had $1 million invested in mutual funds. He and my mom had moved into a retirement community three years earlier, so their "entrance fee" had already been paid, and he just had the monthly fee, which included a meal a day, health clinic visits, all home maintenance, and all utilities except his cable. He easily covered that with his income. He had Medicare plus Tricare plus a state insurance plan, making his out-of-pocket health care costs nearly zero.

He's now 94. He has spent all but $40,000 of his $1,000,000 over the past ten years on private in-home caregivers. His money, his choice. He didn't want to move out of his "independent living" duplex after bladder cancer left him walker-bound and permanently catherized. His mind is still sharp, but his body is fragile.

Over those ten years, I lived in four different states, the closest of which was 400 miles away from him. My only sibling lives on the opposite coast. We're both so grateful that our parents decided where they wanted to live in retirement and made those decisions on their own timetable. The retirement community has been a wonderful place for my dad.

He now lives in assisted living - he did fight that, but he was running out of money and the retirement community said he could apply for benevolent assistance, but only if he "spent down" his remaining savings at the level of care they deemed appropriate. He moved very reluctantly, but now says he wishes he had done it several years earlier. His income covers all but $1K of his monthly costs, so his savings should last him another three years or so before he would need to apply for benevolent assistance. He will not need to leave his retirement community if he runs out of savings since his income would still cover most of his expenses.

But he is outliving his money.

Obviously, he didn't have to - he's always been stubborn as a mule, and he liked having things the way he liked them, which the in-home caregivers gave him. I don't think he expected to live this long, frankly, and the coulda-shoulda-woulda is now really painful for him.

So I will keep buffering up my 'stache, and I will try really hard to remember not to spend $8K/mo for ten years on in-home care.

frugalnacho

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #73 on: August 28, 2014, 08:01:33 AM »
Here's why I lean toward the "buffer up that 'stache" end of the spectrum:

When my mother died in 2003, my father was 83 years old. He had an annual income of $75000 from three income streams: military pension, state pension, and SS. He had $1 million invested in mutual funds. He and my mom had moved into a retirement community three years earlier, so their "entrance fee" had already been paid, and he just had the monthly fee, which included a meal a day, health clinic visits, all home maintenance, and all utilities except his cable. He easily covered that with his income. He had Medicare plus Tricare plus a state insurance plan, making his out-of-pocket health care costs nearly zero.

He's now 94. He has spent all but $40,000 of his $1,000,000 over the past ten years on private in-home caregivers. His money, his choice. He didn't want to move out of his "independent living" duplex after bladder cancer left him walker-bound and permanently catherized. His mind is still sharp, but his body is fragile.

Over those ten years, I lived in four different states, the closest of which was 400 miles away from him. My only sibling lives on the opposite coast. We're both so grateful that our parents decided where they wanted to live in retirement and made those decisions on their own timetable. The retirement community has been a wonderful place for my dad.

He now lives in assisted living - he did fight that, but he was running out of money and the retirement community said he could apply for benevolent assistance, but only if he "spent down" his remaining savings at the level of care they deemed appropriate. He moved very reluctantly, but now says he wishes he had done it several years earlier. His income covers all but $1K of his monthly costs, so his savings should last him another three years or so before he would need to apply for benevolent assistance. He will not need to leave his retirement community if he runs out of savings since his income would still cover most of his expenses.

But he is outliving his money.

Obviously, he didn't have to - he's always been stubborn as a mule, and he liked having things the way he liked them, which the in-home caregivers gave him. I don't think he expected to live this long, frankly, and the coulda-shoulda-woulda is now really painful for him.

So I will keep buffering up my 'stache, and I will try really hard to remember not to spend $8K/mo for ten years on in-home care.

Wait, that math doesn't add up.  What happened to his $75,000/yr from pensions and SS?  Why did it stop at age 83?  If they didn't stop then he was spending $75,000 + $100,000 every year?  $175,000 per year on in home care?  That's insane!  There has to be a more frugal option.

Living to an old age, drawing on your stache for a loooong time, and increased medical expenses are certainly a concern, but you guys seem to be totally discounting the here-and-now with your able bodied self.   What if your dad had died at age 83 with $75,000/yr in pensions and $1M in assets, would you be saying "thank god he spent an extra decade in his 40's working that job and accumulating that huge, unused nest egg"?  Hardly.  It would be just as much of a tragedy knowing he wasted his 40's working a job for no good reason.


begood

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #74 on: August 28, 2014, 08:33:17 AM »

Wait, that math doesn't add up.  What happened to his $75,000/yr from pensions and SS?  Why did it stop at age 83?  If they didn't stop then he was spending $75,000 + $100,000 every year?  $175,000 per year on in home care?  That's insane!  There has to be a more frugal option.

Living to an old age, drawing on your stache for a loooong time, and increased medical expenses are certainly a concern, but you guys seem to be totally discounting the here-and-now with your able bodied self.   What if your dad had died at age 83 with $75,000/yr in pensions and $1M in assets, would you be saying "thank god he spent an extra decade in his 40's working that job and accumulating that huge, unused nest egg"?  Hardly.  It would be just as much of a tragedy knowing he wasted his 40's working a job for no good reason.

Sorry, frugalnacho, my tenses got away from me! He still gets his $75K/year income, plus his three medical insurances are still in force. He had them at 83 and he still has them at 94, which has been his saving grace - his income from 83-93 covered all of his monthly expenses... except for the in-home care... and now his income covers all but $1K of his monthly expenses in assisted living.

Over those ten years, he had two stretches, 8-months-long each, in skilled care at $300/day on top of his regular monthly costs. He had 24-hour in-home care for a time when he moved back from skilled care to his "independent living" duplex. So $8K/month was the average. Some months he spent twice that, or more.

Also, from what I understand (he was not terribly forthcoming about the rapid demise of his funds, so we didn't have a good sense of his finances until push came to shove about his housing in the retirement community), he moved his mutual fund money to CDs and money market accounts after my mom's death, so it didn't grow much, and undoubtedly lost $$ to inflation.

Given the downturn in 2008, I can't say that was the wrong decision to make - his money was safe and eroding slowly, not falling off a cliff in the market. He missed the upturn, but it's hard to imagine any credible financial adviser telling a 90-year-old man to invest in index funds with his remaining moolah.

He did many things right - most things, really - over the course of his lifetime. We (his children) didn't live close enough to him to provide the kind of care he needed, so he made decisions that fit his life, and he could afford them... until he couldn't.

And yes, of course there was a more frugal option: he could have moved into assisted living and spent $1K more a month instead of an average of $8K more. He was wildly resistant to that idea. He liked his life the way it was and didn't want to change.

I read recently that resistance to change can accelerate in later years - we certainly saw that with my husband's parents, who flat-out refused to consider leaving their home and both, in fact, died at home. They too had started spending copious amounts of money on private in-home care. After his dad died, my husband sat his mother down and made her go through the finances. Prior to that time, she had refused to discuss money with him. He told her with the 24-hour-a-day care they had been paying for, she would run out of money in three years; with 8-hour-a-day care, her money would last about 8 years; or she could choose something in between. She went with 8 hours a day, which worked very well for her. She died a year later.

Private in-home care is a budget buster. I personally can't wait to move into a retirement community, but I hope when the time comes, I have the sense to make use of the care levels built into the whole retirement community concept, not try to create something that only works for me.

By the way, I realize my tone may sound callous or cold. I want to say that I absolutely adore my dad. He's a WWII veteran, a retired college professor - smart and interesting and kind and charming and warm. And stubborn. ;)



Abe

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #75 on: August 28, 2014, 02:50:37 PM »
Your father's experience is a good lesson. A lot of expense from major operations, especially in older people, is the medium to long term care needed due to their debilitated state. This is especially true for cancer patients or heart failure patients. Insurers will fight tooth and nail to dump these costs on patients because they can become enormous, costing well over the initial surgery and chemotherapy, for example.

Workinghard

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #76 on: August 28, 2014, 04:20:49 PM »
Thank you for sharing your father's story, begood. Kinda scary, isn't it at how fast the money can go. Most of my patients are elderly, and it's so hard for them to give up their homes and independence. For those that need 24 hr care, bypassing an agency would be cheaper, but then it's finding someone you can trust and doing background checks.

begood

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #77 on: August 28, 2014, 04:52:16 PM »
Thank you for sharing your father's story, begood. Kinda scary, isn't it at how fast the money can go. Most of my patients are elderly, and it's so hard for them to give up their homes and independence. For those that need 24 hr care, bypassing an agency would be cheaper, but then it's finding someone you can trust and doing background checks.

Yes, Workinghard, I imagine trying to piece together care without the benefit of a licensed agency could lead to worse outcomes than dying broke - theft, neglect, abuse.

And, Abe, my mother was denied admittance to a retirement community she herself had worked for, had served on the board for, and had been at the top of the waiting list for for more than a decade. The reason? She'd had breast cancer fifteen years earlier. They said they couldn't guarantee a skilled bed would be available when she needed it. When the time came? She needed a skilled bed for THREE DAYS. Yes, I am still bitter.

Given my dad's experience, I have felt over the past few years that there really can't be "enough". If we have "too much" when we pass, then my daughter can decide what to do with the excess, even if it's just continuing to pile up the 'stache so she doesn't have to worry in her old age.

I wonder if any (other) Mustachians plan to live in retirement communities at some point, and if not, then what their late-in-life plans might be. Though the costs (both upfront and maintenance) for those communities can be high, the opportunity costs of pulling together private care could be even more catastrophic to a 'stache. Maybe I will start a thread about that and stop hijacking this one! :)

lagniappe

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #78 on: August 30, 2014, 12:16:38 PM »
I have multiple buffers built into my planning.

Buffer 1 - My "bare bones"  (call it "X") budget includes a paid for home, which if times are really rough, can be exchanged for a decent rental; the proceeds from the house convert my bare bones budget into a decent life, with a little international travel, eating out a couple of times a week, etc.  I have a sufficient next egg for X.

Buffer 2 - My current life costs about 1.55X.  I have a sufficient nest egg for this.

Buffer 3 - The scenario I call "Big Life" is more money than I have ever spent on discretionary expenses.  This number is 2.4X, and a have a sufficient nest egg for this.

Buffer 4 - I have saved enough to actually fund 3.0X.

Buffer 5 - I am still working.  I found a tough problem that needed to be solved, and I am actively engaged in solving it.  It pays well, but I have enough buffers that when it becomes too much BS, I will stop doing it.

Davids

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #79 on: August 30, 2014, 07:40:04 PM »
Honestly I do not know. For me it almost is one of those questions I can't answer until I get there. Once I hit FI the question becomes how much longer before I RE.

arebelspy

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #80 on: August 31, 2014, 12:29:35 AM »
Since the bulk of my FIRE income will come from rentals, I have different metrics than the traditional (for instance, SWR is almost meaningless to my portfolio).

Thus my buffer is different as well.

With that caveat out of the way, my current plan has about a 40% annual spending buffer due primarily to two things:
1) Much more potential alignment of negative events due to higher frequency and law of large numbers, i.e. volatility, and
2) Much more uncertainty in spending (planning to have a kid and start full time world travel when I FIRE, and both of these can be expensive, so I have no idea what my budget will be in FIRE).

So I have a rather large buffer due to uncertainty.

If I had traditional portfolio, I'd most likely be attempting a trial FIRE on 4% SWR to see how my budget holds up and if it can shrink/expand easily, and then go back if necessary to build the buffer a bit later.  Not being in that circumstance though, I can't really say for certain, as it's different when the rubber actually meets the road.
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

fartface

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #81 on: August 31, 2014, 11:00:32 AM »
I haven't yet caught FIRE, but I'm shooting for a few things.
  • No debt w/ > 4% interest
  • 4.5% SWR covers annual expenses + 15%
  • $50K - $100K liquid (see below)
My SO and I are about 4.5 years away from catching FIRE, but we plan on being fugitives from the retirement police. Our first year is going to involve a fair bit of fun travel, but after that, we plan on spending a couple of years traveling to really awesome places for ~6 months out of the year. One of the goals of these trips is to find investment properties. Live there, learn the area, fix up the house/duplex/fourplex we purchase, and have lots of really fun times. We won't ever be upside down, so each of our "vacations" will involve generating an additional unnecessary stream of income.

Plus, since my career is also my passion (Software Engineering), I will probably take a couple of remote projects that seem fun, just because...well, they seem fun. Another thought is that if we get out of the homesteading mindset, we might sell a good chunk of our stuff, take our permanent home and rent it out (adding yet another income stream), get a big sailboat, and travel full time.

I'm not as conservative as some because I'm youngish and know almost everything. :-)

Great FIRE scenario. I enjoyed reading it!

Cassie

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Re: How much buffer are you building/did you build into your 'stache?
« Reply #82 on: August 31, 2014, 05:40:59 PM »
Also if you are planning to take soc sec at age 62 there is a limit on how much $ you can earn for those of you wanting to work p.t. before they start taking a $1.00 of your SS for every $2 that you make.   At full retirement age it does not matter how much $ you make because you get to keep all of your SS.  Both my hubby & I have pensions that will each pass to the other upon death, savings, a paid for house that could be sold, SS in the future, and our p.t. work providing that we still want to do it.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!