Author Topic: How many extremely early retirees are there?  (Read 19369 times)

NICE!

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #50 on: February 13, 2015, 08:45:39 AM »
So close! Best case scenario estimates I will retire at 41.

Have you done a case study? Maybe the wise mustachians here can help you chop a year and one day off that estimate?

Cookie78

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #51 on: February 13, 2015, 08:50:27 AM »
So close! Best case scenario estimates I will retire at 41.

Have you done a case study? Maybe the wise mustachians here can help you chop a year and one day off that estimate?

I haven't done a case study! But maybe I should. I've been jotting down relevant information and plans in my journal as I figure it out. But a case study might be a great idea. :)

forummm

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #52 on: May 17, 2015, 04:05:18 PM »
I think the numbers in this thread are not reliable, perhaps even within an order of magnitude. People don't always tell the truth, or interpret the question correctly on surveys. And they could easily just check the wrong box by accident (the average person isn't very good at following directions). So if you're looking at differences as small as tenths of percents, you are getting HUGE errors there. And definition of "retired" is in the eye of the beholder anyway, so there's more deviation from what some of us would think of as "retired". Some people receiving disability or SSI would consider themselves retired. They would lose their benefits if they did get work. Some young hipstery types call themselves retired, but they don't have any money and will have to work at some point. Some people might be temporarily "retired" for whatever reason.

Also, I think a very small percent of the 0.01% would consider themselves retired. A lot of them are hedge fund managers, CEOs, chairmen of the board, investors, etc. It's really easy to "work" when you're just deciding where to put your excess money. People who are driven enough to accumulate a few hundred million bucks didn't stop when they had enough for a reason.

It's an interesting question. But I think a good answer is "an incredibly small percentage", and likely much, much less than 0.5% of those <40 who retired by saving their own money.

brooklynguy

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #53 on: May 17, 2015, 05:10:56 PM »
I think the numbers in this thread are not reliable, perhaps even within an order of magnitude.

Yeah, the amount of unscientific assumptions that went into these numbers basically completely undermines whatever accuracy they might have had anyway.  But they're still interesting, as the best educated guess that the formidable collective research and analytical powers of the forum could come up with.

NICE!

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #54 on: May 18, 2015, 06:30:15 AM »
We should figure out a way to at least determine the # of early retirees (and "extreme" early retirees) in our small community. Even here, I doubt the #s are more than 10-20%.

Landlord2015

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #55 on: May 20, 2015, 01:33:27 PM »
We should figure out a way to at least determine the # of early retirees (and "extreme" early retirees) in our small community. Even here, I doubt the #s are more than 10-20%.
A poll!! Probably been done here before but may get "polluted" with the "I'm not ER yet but will be when I'm 30 so checked that box" set. Have to both define ER (working full time still? Not working at all? Or just semi-ER with a PT gig?) first and then put a scale of ages.  I think if you put a poll with a "not working at all and age" there will be very few ERers. If you put in a poll with "still working at something and age" you'll gets lots of ERers here.
I¨ll give a tease, but at the same time truth when you did not get it earlier if I remember that how you feel in health and looks matter. I want to retire when I feel like a 30 year old and look like a 30 year and I do look much younger then I am.

However lets get back to numbers... I admire Robert Kioysaki who retired at age 47. Considering he is much older today and very alive I would say 47 is very early though I am not sure I would call it extreme.

What it comes down also that people like me and arabelspy and many other forum members could retire much sooner but we don't want to live even near frugal life no instead we want wealth, richdom and luxury.

nereo

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #56 on: May 20, 2015, 01:48:49 PM »
... I admire Robert Kioysaki who retired at age 47....

ok, I just gotta call BS on this notion that Kioysaki has been 'retired' in any shape or form over the last 15 years. All jokes about the Internet Retirement Police (IRP) aside, he doesn't pass the sniff test.  Financially Independent? sure.  Retired?  No.
Also, I don't admire him at all.

Quote
What it comes down also that people like me and arabelspy and many other forum members could retire much sooner but we don't want to live even near frugal life no instead we want wealth, richdom and luxury.
In case you missed the memo, MMM isn't about frugality.
I'll leave it up to 'Rebs to decide if he is aiming for a life of 'wealth' and 'luxury'.... i suppose those words could mean vastly different things.
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Mr. Green

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #57 on: May 20, 2015, 01:52:05 PM »
EREs don't want this to become a movement that gains sizeable mass because the Tax Man always wants to be paid. As soon as noticeable dents in income tax revenue became apparent you could kiss the 5-year Rollover IRA Ladder and other "breaks" like that goodbye. Take enough of that away and ERE would become very very difficult.
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Landlord2015

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #58 on: May 20, 2015, 01:58:58 PM »
... I admire Robert Kioysaki who retired at age 47....

ok, I just gotta call BS on this notion that Kioysaki has been 'retired' in any shape or form over the last 15 years. All jokes about the Internet Retirement Police (IRP) aside, he doesn't pass the sniff test.  Financially Independent? sure.  Retired?  No.
Also, I don't admire him at all.

Quote
What it comes down also that people like me and arabelspy and many other forum members could retire much sooner but we don't want to live even near frugal life no instead we want wealth, richdom and luxury.
In case you missed the memo, MMM isn't about frugality.
I'll leave it up to 'Rebs to decide if he is aiming for a life of 'wealth' and 'luxury'.... i suppose those words could mean vastly different things.
Good then MMM is not about frugality I think I have got that impression mostly.

When it comes to Robert Kioysaki retired at age 47 that is according to his own words. Everyone knows he has done lectures and been landlord at least after that and done other stuff but I think that has been voluntary he likes to be famous and becoming more rich and likely not so much work as a fulltime normal employee.

As for Robert Kioysaki I know he is disliked by many and that is why I love to bring him up as a teaser lol. I do like him however Casey Serin was a sad story, but it does not end well for everyone and Casey Serin did lie about his wealth to the banks when he tried to get mortgage loans. I have never lied to a bank about my financial situation if I try to get an apartment loan i.e mortgage.
« Last Edit: May 20, 2015, 02:01:03 PM by Landlord2015 »

Landlord2015

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #59 on: May 20, 2015, 02:16:01 PM »
We should figure out a way to at least determine the # of early retirees (and "extreme" early retirees) in our small community. Even here, I doubt the #s are more than 10-20%.
A poll!! Probably been done here before but may get "polluted" with the "I'm not ER yet but will be when I'm 30 so checked that box" set. Have to both define ER (working full time still? Not working at all? Or just semi-ER with a PT gig?) first and then put a scale of ages.  I think if you put a poll with a "not working at all and age" there will be very few ERers. If you put in a poll with "still working at something and age" you'll gets lots of ERers here.
I¨ll give a tease, but at the same time truth when you did not get it earlier if I remember that how you feel in health and looks matter. I want to retire when I feel like a 30 year old and look like a 30 year and I do look much younger then I am.

 
It's not that I didn't understand you when you said that looking and feeling younger then your age matters, I just don't think it matters in terms of being FI or RE as neither will effect your financial goals.
Ok then we have less confusion. I have nothing against you and you have nice funny Avatar picture:). I meant the Avatar comment as a compliment.

nereo

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #60 on: May 20, 2015, 03:32:28 PM »

When it comes to Robert Kioysaki retired at age 47 that is according to his own words. Everyone knows he has done lectures and been landlord at least after that and done other stuff but I think that has been voluntary he likes to be famous and becoming more rich and likely not so much work as a fulltime normal employee.

It's the "in his own words" that I do not trust.  I can declare myself retired this evening... until I go back to work tomorrow.  He's even said he 'came out of retirement' after 3 years.  But I don't really care if people are ER or just FI - it's the false marketing that gets me.
I also don't trust that Rich Dad/Poor Dad was a work of non-fiction, even though he listed it as such.  IMO his accumulation of wealth through Amway was unethical, and he's an incredible self-promoter. His tirades against education irk me and I completely disagree with a lot of his statements like how investments will make you poor (or in his words "how stupid can you be" to put your money in the market).

As I said, I absolutely believe he's FI by any reasonable measure.  But he hasn't just occasionally given 'voluntary' seminars, and definitely worked 'fulltime' in his own enterprise throughout his 50s and into his 60s.
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arebelspy

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #61 on: May 20, 2015, 06:38:55 PM »
What it comes down also that people like me and arabelspy and many other forum members could retire much sooner but we don't want to live even near frugal life no instead we want wealth, richdom and luxury.

While it's true I could have ER'd much earlier if I didn't want such a large ER budget, I'll still be done by 29, so I'm probably not the best example of someone who's waiting to ER to build up more.

I'll leave it up to 'Rebs to decide if he is aiming for a life of 'wealth' and 'luxury'.... i suppose those words could mean vastly different things.

I absolutely am! 

But my standard of wealth and luxury wouldn't be considered such by most Americans (though it would seem quite lavish and extravagant to many people in third world countries).

I live in tons of abundance, wealth, and luxury. :)
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FrugalFisherman10

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #62 on: July 07, 2017, 09:33:56 AM »
When you first open the forum and you get the list of sub-forums, at the bottom there are some stats below the "members online". Right now there are 660 people, 420 guests, and 180 members, some hidden, and I'm not sure what makes up the difference.

This is a pretty typical amount of people, I check it sometimes just for the hell of it. Some are lurkers who may never join, or who aren't likely ER candidates. Some are already "old-farts" and can't retire extremely early since they are already beyond 30, 35, 40, 45, whatever your definition. But a large portion of these are the regular contributors who have/will/plan to retire early, some extremely early. And this is just one of many forums devoted to this kind of lifestyle.

But my point is this: I believe you are correct brooklynguy in that the message is spreading, and the movement is growing. In 5-10 years there will not be a dozen, or 100 early retiree's, there will be thousands. I'm glad to be one of them, although I might not fit everyone's "extremely" definition since I will likely be early 40's.

I thought it would be interesting to reply to this post from 2015 with current 2017 numbers, to see how things have changed..
right now there are 681 Guests, 223 Users, 17 Hidden. So it seems the guests have gone up by a lot, and the users by a little

Funny.. I always imagined there to be way more people in this

arebelspy

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #63 on: July 07, 2017, 09:56:14 AM »
When you first open the forum and you get the list of sub-forums, at the bottom there are some stats below the "members online". Right now there are 660 people, 420 guests, and 180 members, some hidden, and I'm not sure what makes up the difference.

This is a pretty typical amount of people, I check it sometimes just for the hell of it. Some are lurkers who may never join, or who aren't likely ER candidates. Some are already "old-farts" and can't retire extremely early since they are already beyond 30, 35, 40, 45, whatever your definition. But a large portion of these are the regular contributors who have/will/plan to retire early, some extremely early. And this is just one of many forums devoted to this kind of lifestyle.

But my point is this: I believe you are correct brooklynguy in that the message is spreading, and the movement is growing. In 5-10 years there will not be a dozen, or 100 early retiree's, there will be thousands. I'm glad to be one of them, although I might not fit everyone's "extremely" definition since I will likely be early 40's.

I thought it would be interesting to reply to this post from 2015 with current 2017 numbers, to see how things have changed..
right now there are 681 Guests, 223 Users, 17 Hidden. So it seems the guests have gone up by a lot, and the users by a little

Looks like guests have gone up 62% and registered users have gone up 24% in two years. That's not too bad of growth.  The growth rate itself has definitely slowed down from the early years, but now the absolute numbers are so large it's hard to keep up, even with slower growth.

10% growth on tens of thousands is much bigger than 100% growth on hundreds.

Quote
Funny.. I always imagined there to be way more people in this

That's at any one instant. How many check in once/mo? How many just check the blog?
We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, and now travel the world full time with a kid.
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nereo

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #64 on: July 08, 2017, 04:50:49 AM »
Quote
Funny.. I always imagined there to be way more people in this

That's at any one instant. How many check in once/mo? How many just check the blog?
Then of course there's those of us who just stay logged in "forever" and are listed as being online, but read posts once every couple of days. 

I'm curious to see some sort of breakdown of the number of posts/day and posts per day per unique user.
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arebelspy

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #65 on: July 08, 2017, 08:50:58 AM »
Then of course there's those of us who just stay logged in "forever" and are listed as being online, but read posts once every couple of days. 

I'm curious to see some sort of breakdown of the number of posts/day and posts per day per unique user.

Even if you check "stay logged in," you're only counted active if you've been on the site in the last 15 minutes (clicked to open a thread, posted, etc.).  If you open the forum in a tab and leave it open, you won't be listed 20 minutes later, as you aren't an active user or "online" at that point.
We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, and now travel the world full time with a kid.
If you want to know more about me, or how we did that, or see lots of pictures, this Business Insider profile tells our story pretty well.
We (occasionally) blog at AdventuringAlong.com.
You can also read my forum "Journal."

nereo

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #66 on: July 08, 2017, 01:07:21 PM »
Then of course there's those of us who just stay logged in "forever" and are listed as being online, but read posts once every couple of days. 

I'm curious to see some sort of breakdown of the number of posts/day and posts per day per unique user.

Even if you check "stay logged in," you're only counted active if you've been on the site in the last 15 minutes (clicked to open a thread, posted, etc.).  If you open the forum in a tab and leave it open, you won't be listed 20 minutes later, as you aren't an active user or "online" at that point.
huh.  g2k.  any stats on the number of posts/day/user or anything like that? 
Just curious mostly....
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arebelspy

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #67 on: July 08, 2017, 01:48:23 PM »
any stats on the number of posts/day/user or anything like that? 
Just curious mostly....

Yearly Summary | New Topics | New Posts | New Members | Most Online | Page views |
2017 (YTD)78102546974357146376775841
20161421543818565941205123815757
2015169704164788796116289990615
2014150733113639234109365085921
20138388143272540246326704825
201231234625325951996208454

We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, and now travel the world full time with a kid.
If you want to know more about me, or how we did that, or see lots of pictures, this Business Insider profile tells our story pretty well.
We (occasionally) blog at AdventuringAlong.com.
You can also read my forum "Journal."

MrsPete

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #68 on: July 10, 2017, 07:12:49 AM »
I wonder how states come up with unemployment numbers, and if that can be used to answer your questions.  While the population measured in unemployment figures is "not working but looking for work", you'd want "not working and not looking for work", filtered by some age restriction.  That info must be out there somewhere.
That I can answer.  A friend whose husband was unemployed explained this to me, and I was surprised. 

You are "unemployed" if you are currently collecting unemployment checks from the state.  On the other hand, if you've been out of work for five years and your unemployment benefits have "run out", you are no longer "unemployed".  You may not have a job yet, and you may still continue looking for a job, but if you've exhausted your unemployment benefits, you are no longer "unemployed" according to the state. 

So "unemployed" really means collecting checks, not that you're out of work.

arebelspy

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #69 on: July 10, 2017, 11:17:28 PM »
I wonder how states come up with unemployment numbers, and if that can be used to answer your questions.  While the population measured in unemployment figures is "not working but looking for work", you'd want "not working and not looking for work", filtered by some age restriction.  That info must be out there somewhere.
That I can answer.  A friend whose husband was unemployed explained this to me, and I was surprised. 

You are "unemployed" if you are currently collecting unemployment checks from the state.  On the other hand, if you've been out of work for five years and your unemployment benefits have "run out", you are no longer "unemployed".  You may not have a job yet, and you may still continue looking for a job, but if you've exhausted your unemployment benefits, you are no longer "unemployed" according to the state. 

So "unemployed" really means collecting checks, not that you're out of work.

It's usually defined as "not employed and looking for work," whether you're getting benefits or not.

If you have no job, and have given up looking, you don't count.  But just cause you have no benefits, if you're looking, I believe you count.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, please. :)
We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, and now travel the world full time with a kid.
If you want to know more about me, or how we did that, or see lots of pictures, this Business Insider profile tells our story pretty well.
We (occasionally) blog at AdventuringAlong.com.
You can also read my forum "Journal."

anonymouscow

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #70 on: July 11, 2017, 04:51:32 AM »
I wonder how states come up with unemployment numbers, and if that can be used to answer your questions.  While the population measured in unemployment figures is "not working but looking for work", you'd want "not working and not looking for work", filtered by some age restriction.  That info must be out there somewhere.
That I can answer.  A friend whose husband was unemployed explained this to me, and I was surprised. 

You are "unemployed" if you are currently collecting unemployment checks from the state.  On the other hand, if you've been out of work for five years and your unemployment benefits have "run out", you are no longer "unemployed".  You may not have a job yet, and you may still continue looking for a job, but if you've exhausted your unemployment benefits, you are no longer "unemployed" according to the state. 

So "unemployed" really means collecting checks, not that you're out of work.

It's usually defined as "not employed and looking for work," whether you're getting benefits or not.

If you have no job, and have given up looking, you don't count.  But just cause you have no benefits, if you're looking, I believe you count.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, please. :)

There are a bunch of different ways you can look at it.

https://unemploymentdata.com/what-is-u-6-unemployment/

"The six classifications of unemployment that the Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks are:

U1 is Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.

U2 is Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.

U3 is Official unemployment rate per the International Labor Organization definition. It occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively looked for work within the past four weeks.

U4 is U3 + “discouraged workers”, or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.

U5 is U4 + other “marginally attached workers”, or “loosely attached workers”, or those who “would like” and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.

U6 is U5 + Part time workers who want to work full-time, but cannot due to economic reasons, i.e. the economy is bad so their employer cut their hours and they can’t find other work."


You could also look at those "not in the labor force"

https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-4/people-who-are-not-in-the-labor-force-why-arent-they-working.htm

In 2014, 87.4 million people 16 years and older neither worked nor looked for work at any time during the year. (See table 1.) Of this group, 38.5 million people reported retirement as the main reason for not working. About 16.3 million people were ill or had a disability, and 16.0 million were attending school. Another 13.5 million people cited home responsibilities as the main reason for not working in 2014, and 3.1 million individuals gave “other reasons.”


Which goes along with labor force participation rate

https://www.forbes.com/sites/aparnamathur/2016/05/25/the-concerning-drop-in-workforce-participation-and-role-of-family-friendly-policies/#396387905c6c

The civilian labor force participation rate has dipped to 62.8%, the lowest level in nearly 30 years. Excluding the unemployed who are looking for work, the share of the population that is actually employed is an even lower 59.7%

nereo

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #71 on: July 11, 2017, 04:52:46 AM »
I wonder how states come up with unemployment numbers, and if that can be used to answer your questions.  While the population measured in unemployment figures is "not working but looking for work", you'd want "not working and not looking for work", filtered by some age restriction.  That info must be out there somewhere.
That I can answer.  A friend whose husband was unemployed explained this to me, and I was surprised. 

You are "unemployed" if you are currently collecting unemployment checks from the state.  On the other hand, if you've been out of work for five years and your unemployment benefits have "run out", you are no longer "unemployed".  You may not have a job yet, and you may still continue looking for a job, but if you've exhausted your unemployment benefits, you are no longer "unemployed" according to the state. 

So "unemployed" really means collecting checks, not that you're out of work.

It's usually defined as "not employed and looking for work," whether you're getting benefits or not.

If you have no job, and have given up looking, you don't count.  But just cause you have no benefits, if you're looking, I believe you count.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, please. :)

'Rebs has it mostly right.  The headline "unemployment rate" that is determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) defines unemployment as Individuals who are willing and available to work, and who have actively sought work within the past four weeks. Those with temporary, part-time or full-time jobs are considered employed, as are those who perform at least 15 hours of unpaid family work
This is called the "U-3" (Unemployment 3) number that every major newspaper published when it says "the country's unemployment rate dropped/rose to x.x%"

It does not matter how long the person has been out of work, only that they have actively sought work in the last month.

Also important, this number is just one of six figures the BLS puts out each month.  Each calculates a slightly different labor statistic.  For example, the U4 rate includes "discouraged workers" - those that would like to work but have given up working and assume there are no jobs around.  The U4 will always be higher than or equal to the U3 number.
U6 includes marginally attached workers + part time workers + those who have been discouraged and given up work.  Lately people have started referring to this as the "real unemployment rate" - BUT, it's no better nor worse than U3; it just measures different things.

Unemployment has nothing to do with whether you are collecting unemployment checks or not.  The data is based on monthly surveys taken by the Current Population Survey (CPS), and contacts ~60,000 households/month. It is NOT based on the number of people collecting unemployment insurance (UI) as this would skew the data against people who, for various reasons, either cannot or do not receive unemployment.


www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unemploymentrate.asp#ixzz4mWCYuhnE


edit:  DRAT!  anonymouscow beat me to it!  And this took me so long to write!
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Aegishjalmur

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #72 on: July 11, 2017, 07:47:11 AM »
Before this question can be answered, I think we need to nail down what is considered early and what is considered extremely early. But even that is not straight forward. 

For early retirement, I would say that if you are younger than the earliest age when you can generally start collecting Government provided retirement benefits, you are considered early.

So for the American MMM forum members, before age 62 you count as early. 62 being the earliest age you can generally* start collecting SS benefits.
*If you start collecting due to disability, collecting deceased spouses benefits, ect, I think it's still considered early if you are younger than 62.

Other countries that have defined benefits have different ages for eligibility, so for that country, this figure could be different. I know nothing about the benefits system in Canada and Australia and I know we have a large number of members from those countries so they can chime in.

I think extremely early is actually easier to define as I think the best metric is someone who has retired X years before they can collect the Government provided retirement benefits. As we are labeling it 'Extreme' I think a good ground rule is 20 years earlier. So, based on the US SS age, if you are younger than 42, you are considered Extreme. 

42 is also the answer to Life, the Universe, and Everything. Coincidence? Probably.

I think this is a pretty reasonable basis when one considers that typical American High School graduation is when you are 17-19 years old. If you immediately attend college and graduate with a 4 year degree, you are looking at 21-23 yrs old. That puts 42 at the halfway mark between when you leave school and the earliest most people would count on being able to retire. To retire before this generally implies a pretty significant devotion of time and energy to figuring out what you want to do with life beyond the typical, and working towards it with sustained energy, especially considering the debt loads many students have now.



« Last Edit: July 11, 2017, 07:56:00 AM by Aegishjalmur »
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skip207

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #73 on: July 11, 2017, 02:07:45 PM »

In the UK I would say the vast majority who retire do so around the 60-65 mark.  The people who stop between 55 and 60 tend to be public sector, police, fire, council etc.  Some blue chip types etc.  Tend to be the higher paid section of society. 

Under 55.  I would actually say its quite rare.  So in the UK 55 is considered "early".   

State pension age is 67 but probably going up to 70 ish here soon.  Personal pension age is 55 but likely to go to 60.

So in the future anyone who wants to retire early will have a much longer gap to fill.  If you retire at 45 now you have to fill a gap of 10 years.  If the changes come in then it would be maybe 15 years.. 33% more.  Ouch.

I also suspect state pension to be means tested at some point in the future. 

All this means, IMHO, that early, very early and extreme retirement dates will actually get older in years to come.  55 is early now, but it could well be more like 60 in a few years.  Very early might be 55 where it used to be 50 or even 45.  The goal posts keep moving!

We might also expect a reduction in life time allowance, removal of the 40% tax band etc - which is a backwards step but there you go.

Cassie

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #74 on: July 11, 2017, 02:25:58 PM »
The problem that occurs if they keep increasing the age you  can retire is that many people do not retire by choice. They retire because their health is not good enough to keep working, they lose their job and can't find another one or they need to care for a sick spouse. 

skip207

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #75 on: July 11, 2017, 02:34:43 PM »
In the UK we have free healthcare though and state pension is 8k PA.
I guess the govt are looking at it from the angle that life expectancy is going up not down.

CanuckExpat

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #76 on: July 11, 2017, 09:53:11 PM »
Just very roughly making up numbers, let's say most people retire at 62 +/-  3 years. (This is roughly true in the US I believe: half of people are retired by 60 - 65, but it's hard to track).

Then for your definitions it's a matter of picking how stringent you are:
Say early retirement is below that off: so 59 or younger.
For extreme early retirement, decide if are you a three sigma or six sigma person:
three deviations: 53 or younger is extreme (you can round to 55 if you want)
six deviations: 44 or younger is extreme (you can round to 45 if you want)

Sounds as good as any definitions to me. And I haven't had a chance to talk about standard deviations and abuse statistics in a conversation for a while.
So how extreme is extreme? (Keeping in mind that I made +/- 3 years up for the sake of convenience)
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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #77 on: July 12, 2017, 12:35:35 PM »
I don't think it'll be a normal curve, it'll peak much higher toward the middle and have fairly narrow tails.
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PizzaSteve

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #78 on: July 12, 2017, 12:43:36 PM »
Good thread. 

People are so complex and movements with nuance are hard to measure.

I would love to compare to earlier movements that had similar agendas. 

What % of the population became a full 1960s flower child type Hippie (stick it to the man, live in a commune) or an 80s deadhead (live on the road, adopted a low income/low costm anti consumer lifestyle) 

Wonder what those counts are and if earlier eras had larger groups of young alternative lifestyle participants? How about RW Emerson inspired 'back to nature types?'  Even our founding fathers to some degree followed their values over the prevailing economy represented by British financial contol (e.g. Hamilton forsook a lot of potential financial gain to work for a more equitable system, albiet via public service).

Most on this site don't consider my family Mustacian, yet the site and values have influence.

So 1 out of 4 of all households younger than 35 with net worth greater than $500,000 are retired?  That seems improbable.

If I'm correctly following how you arrived at that conclusion, I think you are conflating "households" with "people".

Good point.  So that probably changes it to ~1 in 6 people under age 35 with household net worth over $500,000 are retired.
Agree with this. 
« Last Edit: July 13, 2017, 10:15:43 PM by PizzaSteve »
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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #79 on: July 12, 2017, 09:01:19 PM »
Being newly 27 here and aiming for another 4-5 years, I fall into the "ERE" category.

I don't know a single person going on a similar path IRL, and I do consulting and meet swaths of new people at each client site. This is a subject that we actually talk about occasionally, mostly positively.

Keeping in mind, I work in highly paid corporate offices.

I can't imagine the number is very high. My guess is that even most people on THESE FORUMS won't FIRE before 35. The ones that do actually make it are reasonably famous to "us"

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #80 on: July 13, 2017, 08:34:32 AM »
Just very roughly making up numbers, let's say most people retire at 62 +/-  3 years. (This is roughly true in the US I believe: half of people are retired by 60 - 65, but it's hard to track).

Then for your definitions it's a matter of picking how stringent you are:
Say early retirement is below that off: so 59 or younger.
For extreme early retirement, decide if are you a three sigma or six sigma person:
three deviations: 53 or younger is extreme (you can round to 55 if you want)
six deviations: 44 or younger is extreme (you can round to 45 if you want)

Sounds as good as any definitions to me. And I haven't had a chance to talk about standard deviations and abuse statistics in a conversation for a while.
So how extreme is extreme? (Keeping in mind that I made +/- 3 years up for the sake of convenience)

I like 3 sigma.  That makes me an extreme ER'er. 😆

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #81 on: July 14, 2017, 03:04:11 PM »
Everyone I know who retired extremely early ended up going back to work, either out of choice or necessity. One could even argue Pete has been pretty hard at work on the blog which provides him such a fabulous income.  So, it seems it is not that hard to retire extremely early, it is hard to retire early and stay retired.

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #82 on: July 14, 2017, 08:17:21 PM »
Everyone I know who retired extremely early ended up going back to work, either out of choice or necessity. One could even argue Pete has been pretty hard at work on the blog which provides him such a fabulous income.  So, it seems it is not that hard to retire extremely early, it is hard to retire early and stay retired.
IRP?
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arebelspy

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #83 on: July 14, 2017, 09:25:51 PM »
Everyone I know who retired extremely early ended up going back to work, either out of choice or necessity. One could even argue Pete has been pretty hard at work on the blog which provides him such a fabulous income.  So, it seems it is not that hard to retire extremely early, it is hard to retire early and stay retired.
IRP?

Maybe, maybe not.  Doesn't seem like he's questioning that they were retired, but is saying some unretired.  Under Pete's definition, that's unpossible, but I don't think anyone with a different definition is automatically IRP.  :)
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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #84 on: July 15, 2017, 06:25:53 AM »
Everyone I know who retired extremely early ended up going back to work, either out of choice or necessity.

How many extremely early retirees do you actually know in the flesh?  To the best of my knowledge, I know exactly zero (other than those I've met through this forum).  Despite the enormous growth of the FIRE blogosphere and increased coverage in mainstream media channels over the last several years, I would guess that the percentage of the overall population consisting of extremely early retirees (or even aspiring extremely early retirees) remains exceedingly low.

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #85 on: July 15, 2017, 07:05:08 AM »

How many extremely early retirees do you actually know in the flesh? 

I know two couples work retired in the 1990s (in their 30s and other early 40s) because they felt they had enough.  Each lasted 3-5 years before returning to work full time after watching their investments fall in 2000.  I also know two guys who started a huge cable tv channel in the early 1990s and sold it for megabucks in their early 40s. Both moved away from Hollywood to raise families but both went back to work within a couple years.  I know several colleagues who elected to retire in their early 50s from my employer with huge packages but all went work consulting or with other companies after a while.  Another friend involuntarily retired in the late 80s when real estate busted. He went on food stamps while trying to find work but died of alcoholism at age 49.  I know another guy who I think is retired now at age 50 but his wife still works and has a huge income.  I also know a couple who retired in their mid 50s two years ago who are still retired but the wife has a major health issue they are fighting.  I don't see her returning to work but imagine her husband could if she doesn't make it.  That reminds me I know another lady senior executive who did retire in her mid 40s to care for her sick husband. They had saved millions. He passed away and she eventually returned to work.  I know a physician who retired around age 55 but works full time managing his family foundation; in retrospect he was sort of working for fun all along considering how wealthy his family is.

I can also think of a handful of people who never really had conventional jobs because they have large incomes from oil and gas royalties but most of them also had some form of daily work (one worked in an art gallery, another made furniture, several others ran retail businesses or invested in commercial real estate).

My father retired at 55 with a great pension and health benefits. He immediately found a menial job and later a consulting gig. My mother is over 80 and still working.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2017, 07:11:50 AM by SnackDog »

sol

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #86 on: July 15, 2017, 12:52:00 PM »
How many extremely early retirees do you actually know in the flesh?  To the best of my knowledge, I know exactly zero

I met one, as a starving student while travelling the world, long before I ever had a real job.  How do you think I got started on this path in the first place? We met on a beach in Australia and it wasn't ever clear to me if his female companion was his wife or just some hanger-on he picked up along the way.

The next year I met a couple in the 40 who had quit their jobs in Arizona and sold their house to buy an RV and drive around New Zealand.  They figured they might have to go back to work in the 60s if the market didn't hold up, and were totally fine with that.  They were basically taking their retirement early, while they were still healthy, and fulfilling a lifelong dream.  It just happened to require that they abandon the safety and security of their oppressive office jobs, and break the mold of workaday routine that binds most people into small lives.

One of my primary motivations for retiring early is to be that roll model for other young people.

Cassie

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #87 on: July 15, 2017, 02:59:41 PM »
I think some people return to work because of the social interaction or needing something to do.  My Dad retired at 53 because of ill health and then my Mom by 59 because she had to take care of him by then.  I bet this happens more then you would like to think. I was fully retired for 7 months before deciding to work on a p.t. basis for myself and teaching an online college class.   I only know 2 couples that retired in their 40's and never went back to work. I heard through another person that both ended up sorry in their 60's because their $ wasn't going as far and they could not do the things like travel, eat out etc that their friends were doing. 

Cookie78

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #88 on: July 17, 2017, 11:49:00 AM »
Everyone I know who retired extremely early ended up going back to work, either out of choice or necessity.

How many extremely early retirees do you actually know in the flesh? 

I know one couple. They sold a company and retired maybe 15 years ago. They both have enough hobbies and have no desires or needs to return to work.

CanuckExpat

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #89 on: July 21, 2017, 02:10:40 PM »
I don't think it'll be a normal curve, it'll peak much higher toward the middle and have fairly narrow tails.

You are most certainly right (and I was making up numbers). Chart, from this article:

Turned into a more conventional presentation, because I dislike the above visualization:


(There's some errors in the first graph, they duplicate labels, and the totals add to more than 100%, I made some guesses at the edges to clean it up)

There's a very small group of very early retirees (<55), a bump of early retirees (55-60), a big spike of conventional retirees at (61-65) and then a longish tail of older retirees. It's asymmetrical and you are right that it is not normally distributed.  Big question above is how LIMRA get's their data, I couldn't find exact details, but most work I've seen before looks at census burea data and then makes guesses/estimates based on labor force participation, but they usually exclude very young (below 50 or 40) from counting as a retiree.

To the earlier point, even if it's not normally distributed, you can calculate mean and standard deviation based on the population data, but you can use it to extrapolate less without knowing what the distribution looks like. It's 65 +/- 7 based on the chart above (and some 1st degree approximating by me), but almost certainly not normal.
Was targetting Freedom35 but ended up retiring a couple years early. Currently Based in Buffalo for the summer.

spartana

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #90 on: July 21, 2017, 04:33:12 PM »
^Finally found a way I can be a 1 percenter ;-)
Retired at 42 to play!

surfhb

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #91 on: July 21, 2017, 05:24:48 PM »
What scares me about this almost decade long Bull Market is that most ER'er have no concept of what a Bear Market is and how it WILL affect your life and finances.    Most (even on this forum) will need to return to work.     Seen it happen 3 times now in my investing life but this is a crazy long run in the equities market.

ixtap

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #92 on: July 21, 2017, 05:39:40 PM »
What scares me about this almost decade long Bull Market is that most ER'er have no concept of what a Bear Market is and how it WILL affect your life and finances.    Most (even on this forum) will need to return to work.     Seen it happen 3 times now in my investing life but this is a crazy long run in the equities market.

I am more concerned about the proposed budgets that don't include home maintenance, and the number of posters who consider car repairs unforeseen emergencies.

StudentEngineer

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #93 on: July 21, 2017, 06:07:26 PM »
I'm aiming for barebones FI by 30 but will likely take that new status and use it to spend time on more fulfilling entrepreneurial ventures.
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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #94 on: July 21, 2017, 07:54:31 PM »
I have friends (married couple) that just retired at 37, and another set of married friends that should cut the cord in about 5 years at 42.  To me anyone under 40 would be extreme early retirement.

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #95 on: Today at 05:58:24 AM »
What scares me about this almost decade long Bull Market is that most ER'er have no concept of what a Bear Market is and how it WILL affect your life and finances.    Most (even on this forum) will need to return to work.     Seen it happen 3 times now in my investing life but this is a crazy long run in the equities market.

I am more concerned about the proposed budgets that don't include home maintenance, and the number of posters who consider car repairs unforeseen emergencies.

Or thinking that if they can live on 20k in their 20s and 30s, they'll be able to live on the same budget in their 50s and beyond. They have no idea what might come in terms of their own health and vitality, or what unexpected events will occur.
« Last Edit: Today at 06:34:47 AM by tipster350 »

Lan Mandragoran

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #96 on: Today at 08:20:33 AM »
What scares me about this almost decade long Bull Market is that most ER'er have no concept of what a Bear Market is and how it WILL affect your life and finances.    Most (even on this forum) will need to return to work.     Seen it happen 3 times now in my investing life but this is a crazy long run in the equities market.

Meh, im accumulating for a long time still so bring on the Bear!  Even for those who are ER'd atm, though.

 Isn't this site's underlying message that, we are smart, adaptable people that are willing to optimize our lives with little regard to the short term... We`re Mustachians! Market goes to hell, we use the combination of cultivated skill sets + incredible world we live in to make enough that we dont need to pull to much out.

I mean ffs, its not like you need much money by normal standards to live a good life if you have no debt and a willingness to not waste. Even just a small 15-20k a year or something could mean you have to pull out just 50% of what you normally would(less for some people).
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TheAnonOne

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #97 on: Today at 08:25:19 AM »
What scares me about this almost decade long Bull Market is that most ER'er have no concept of what a Bear Market is and how it WILL affect your life and finances.    Most (even on this forum) will need to return to work.     Seen it happen 3 times now in my investing life but this is a crazy long run in the equities market.

Meh, im accumulating for a long time still so bring on the Bear!  Even for those who are ER'd atm, though.

 Isn't this site's underlying message that, we are smart, adaptable people that are willing to optimize our lives with little regard to the short term... We`re Mustachians! Market goes to hell, we use the combination of cultivated skill sets + incredible world we live in to make enough that we dont need to pull to much out.

I mean ffs, its not like you need much money by normal standards to live a good life if you have no debt and a willingness to not waste. Even just a small 15-20k a year or something could mean you have to pull out just 50% of what you normally would(less for some people).

Given that people on this forum are accounting for BEAR markets using the SWR's I can't see exactly why it would be the end of FIRE for us all? Seems a little doom-and-gloom if you ask me.

If it turns out to be worse than the worst yet, AND you retired right before it, the sequence of returns could ding you pretty hard, but again, we are talking about an awfully unlucky subject.

sol

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #98 on: Today at 08:52:16 AM »
If it turns out to be worse than the worst yet, AND you retired right before it, the sequence of returns could ding you pretty hard, but again, we are talking about an awfully unlucky subject.

The often-overlooked nature of the SWR success percentages is that they do not apply to subjects, but to years.  If 2017 is going to be one of the 4% failure years, then every single person who retires on 4% this is going to fail together.  It would be a 100% failure rate for the class of 2017.  See the difference?

Yes, those folks would be unlucky, but they would all be unlucky together at the same time, and that doesn't feel like luck. 

brooklynguy

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Re: How many extremely early retirees are there?
« Reply #99 on: Today at 09:01:40 AM »
Isn't this site's underlying message that, we are smart, adaptable people that are willing to optimize our lives with little regard to the short term... We`re Mustachians!

Absolutely, but this message has gotten diluted as the site's ranks have swelled.  So it always warms my mustache to hear an invocation of core principles, which bear repeating amid this board's current climate of undue pessimism and advancing consumerist creep.