How long can we wait while flattening the curve?

[Bloop Bloop Reloaded]

That's not cool. Should not be having unmasked dinner parties if that breaks the rules.

I was thinking of Gov. Steve Adler who attended a private wedding reception by private jet. My understanding is that he did it a few weeks ago before the rules changed. So if he abided by rules at that time, I don't see any issues doing that while also maintaining the current "don't travel" messaging. It might be a bit extravagant but a wedding/jet being extravagant (just like the French Laundry being extravagant) doesn't add or detract from covid risk. I imagine a private jet would be less risk than most forms of transport, after all, particularly if it was with your household that you already mix with.

[fuzzy math]

That's not cool. Should not be having unmasked dinner parties if that breaks the rules.

I was thinking of Gov. Steve Adler who attended a private wedding reception by private jet. My understanding is that he did it a few weeks ago before the rules changed. So if he abided by rules at that time, I don't see any issues doing that while also maintaining the current "don't travel" messaging. It might be a bit extravagant but a wedding/jet being extravagant (just like the French Laundry being extravagant) doesn't add or detract from covid risk. I imagine a private jet would be less risk than most forms of transport, after all, particularly if it was with your household that you already mix with.

Its not about whether it breaks any formal rules or not. If he's on TV begging people to avoid contact with anyone outside their own home, he should not be having indoor dinner parties with anyone, regardless of local regulations or not. It still reeks of "rules for thee, but not for me" even if its not a legally binding request.

[mathlete]

Want to remind the non Americans here that in the states, we are back up over 2,000 deaths a day and we have localities in Texas refusing orders but having to call in the national guard to deal with dead bodies.

It is not simply a calculation of, “well we can weigh 10 years of life for some old person vs young people missing out on opportunity”. People are getting sick and dying by the thousands every day. The healthcare system and now the national guard, evidently, has to deal with that.

[mm1970]

Newsom

No e on the end

[Kris]

Want to remind the non Americans here that in the states, we are back up over 2,000 deaths a day and we have localities in Texas refusing orders but having to call in the national guard to deal with dead bodies.

It is not simply a calculation of, “well we can weigh 10 years of life for some old person vs young people missing out on opportunity”. People are getting sick and dying by the thousands every day. The healthcare system and now the national guard, evidently, has to deal with that.

Yep. We’re close to a 9/11 in deaths every day right now. In Minnesota, we are currently #1 in infections.

And yet, today, 5 blocks from me in one direction, a group of protesters stormed into a Target maskless to demonstrate their #freedumb. And 5 blocks in another direction, another group protested the stay at home order outside the governor’s mansion.

Lord, I am so, so sick of stupid people.

[RetiredAt63]

We have the stupid here as well.  Alberta and Manitoba, yikes.  I'm guessing people aren't mad at Palliser (Progressive Conservative) for cancelling Christmas, they are mad because he wasted a whole summer of low cases doing no prep for fall/winter and school openings. 

My DD's postal code (Toronto area) is at 12.5% infection rate.

Isolating and mask wearing do help.  Ottawa was heading up and now we are heading down.  Government/high-tech employment means lots of WFH, and mask wearing is excellent.  I had to go out today (never on weekends is my motto but . . . ) and stopped in at Fabricland.  I hit the senior time by pure chance, and they had someone at the door counting shoppers.  They had an area set aside for the excess, when one shopper left, one shopper was allowed in.  They also had the cutting table barricaded with plastic and chairs, you handed your fabric to the cutter and backed off about 5 feet.  Small store so not a lot of space, but well managed.  The Canadian Tire I went to wasn't  crowded for a Saturday morning in December and was also doing well for the precautions.

So it can be done.  There has to be the will.  We never really had the expectation of controlling it in North America the way Australia was able to, the whole thing was keeping the case load low enough not to overwhelm the health facilities until there was a vaccine.  Why is that so hard for people to understand?

[deborah]

Australia is concerned at the moment. We only have a few cases, but the authorities are worried that we've run out of steam.

All through winter there were virtually no respiratory infections - colds, flu... - I don't know anyone who has had a cold since last year. Over the past couple of weeks, as our restrictions have been reduced, these have re-emerged, so people aren't hand sanitizing and socially distancing as well as they were. We don't expect to get the vaccine until March (although we were one of the nations that pre-ordered a lot of doses, we'll probably be among the last to get it because other nations have greater need), and we're still trying to repatriate over 30,000 citizens who are stuck overseas. So we expect covid19 will escape quarantine again before we get vaccinated.

[alsoknownasDean]

Australia is concerned at the moment. We only have a few cases, but the authorities are worried that we've run out of steam.

All through winter there were virtually no respiratory infections - colds, flu... - I don't know anyone who has had a cold since last year. Over the past couple of weeks, as our restrictions have been reduced, these have re-emerged, so people aren't hand sanitizing and socially distancing as well as they were. We don't expect to get the vaccine until March (although we were one of the nations that pre-ordered a lot of doses, we'll probably be among the last to get it because other nations have greater need), and we're still trying to repatriate over 30,000 citizens who are stuck overseas. So we expect covid19 will escape quarantine again before we get vaccinated.

Well with situations like what happened yesterday with the international travellers, there's likely to continue to be the occasional outbreak.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-05/international-travellers-avoid-quarantine/12954384

I'd still rather be here than almost anywhere else in the world right now.

There's been a further change to restrictions here in Victoria, including an easing of the mask requirements.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-06/coronavirus-restrictions-eased-again-victoria/12954316

Mr Andrews said masks had been an important insurance policy to protect against the spread of coronavirus.

Masks must be carried by everyone at all times and they must be worn in indoor shopping centres and supermarkets and department stores, the Premier said.

"For instance Kmart, Myer, Ikea, Bunnings, JB HiFi just to give you a few examples, and indoor markets, such as the Prahran market," he said.

"Large, big crowds, people you don't know, not everybody has QR coded in. So there's a need or a requirement to wear a mask in those settings."

Masks are also required in taxis and rideshare vehicles and on public transport.

He said in other settings masks will continue to be strongly recommended, both indoors and outdoors where social distancing of 1.5 metres cannot be maintained.

"We would encourage people to wear a mask whenever they can and wherever there's any doubt that they're going to come in closer contact than that 1.5 metres," he said.

It's beginning to feel more like normal here, even though I'll be working from home until at least the new year.

[Bloop Bloop Reloaded]

It doesn't matter if we've run out of steam. We have literally zero active cases in the whole state of Victoria and the only danger now is from overseas arrivals. We have a contact tracing team for that, who have learned their lesson from the previous debacle. Anyway the vaccine is just around the corner. Our state government just (finally) ditched the use of masks in offices and most indoor spaces so clearly the authorities don't seem that worried we've run out of steam in any case.

We have a few months between now and when the vaccine comes and the cost/benefit equation clearly favours a continued re-opening, which is happening.

We are now doing a better job of quarantining quarantine workers (the danger is not the overseas arrivals who have covid - it's the workers who contract it and then get into the community). All along such workers should have been told to ditch their families and work on-site only for the duration of their work. It's not that hard - just bump up the pay rate and the workers will come. That's the only "leakage point" and we now have the learnings to do our best to prevent that.

Our second wave literally came from security guards who contracted the disease and then went into their large extended families. From an economic and social point of view we would have been better off paying every single guard $10 million each to work for 3 months in isolation. Now that we know this, we don't even have to set the salary at $10 million, obviously. Set it at $2000 a week and plenty of applicants will come.

[Bloop Bloop Reloaded]

It may be that regional areas don't have enough applicants to immediately hire 20-50 security guards, or they might not have a single hotel capable of accommodating large enough numbers. But I agree, a 'hub' consisting of several nearby hotels in a regional area, with workers ferried in from Melbourne (or taken from the local area), would have been a much better suggestion.

It seems that the government saw our hotel quarantine program as a way of encouraging socially marginalised people into working - which is a nice gesture but I don't think you want fringe workers to be having one of the more stringent jobs in the population.

A senior Department of Jobs official has been shifted from their role as evidence mounts that the decision to use private security guards at Melbourne’s quarantine hotels was partly driven by a well-meaning attempt to provide jobs under "social inclusion" policies.

...

Infection outbreaks among security guards at two quarantine hotels in Melbourne are widely believed to be responsible for the state's second devastating wave of coronavirus, which has killed dozens of people and put hundreds of thousands out of work.

...

The task of contracting the security firms was given to the department’s executive director of employment...the official had professional dealings with the Sydney-based security company given much of the hotel quarantine work, Unified Security, in their previous role as general manager of work and learning at the Brotherhood of St Laurence.

The charity and Unified established a partnership in 2012 to provide security training and jobs for marginalised people. The official also did some work with Unified in 2019 in finding a small number of positions under a Jobs Victoria project. As an Indigenous-owned company, Unified satisfies the government’s criteria for contracts under its social inclusion procurement policy.

The appointment of Unified proved controversial because, unlike Wilson and MSS, it was not on the government’s preferred panel of security suppliers. Despite this, Unified ended up doing the bulk of the hotel quarantine work. All three companies had to rely on sub-contractors to supply their guards – some of whom were recruited via WhatsApp messages – at short notice.

In early April, well before COVID-19 began crippling Victoria, Mr Andrews and Jobs Coordination Minister Martin Pakula released a media statement highlighting the government’s role in creating jobs for 1300 Victorians whose employment prospects had worsened due to the global pandemic.

The press release specifically referred to 450 jobs being created in the hotel quarantine program “including transport operations, security and cleaning”. International students and temporary migrants were key targets under the jobs program.

Private security companies, including Unified, were also used in NSW hotel quarantine, but private security guards in Sydney were overseen by police or Border Force officials in each hotel.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/security-guards-hired-for-hotel-quarantine-in-an-attempt-at-social-inclusion-20200807-p55jlz.html

It makes no sense to me that you put the least qualified and most undertrained workers centre stage in a pandemic.

Pay security guards properly, take only the best applicants (not those on the fringes of employability) and isolate them and the new arrivals somewhere away from the greater population.

[Prairie Gal]

We have the stupid here as well.  Alberta and Manitoba, yikes.  I'm guessing people aren't mad at Palliser (Progressive Conservative) for cancelling Christmas, they are mad because he wasted a whole summer of low cases doing no prep for fall/winter and school openings. 

My DD's postal code (Toronto area) is at 12.5% infection rate.

Isolating and mask wearing do help.  Ottawa was heading up and now we are heading down.  Government/high-tech employment means lots of WFH, and mask wearing is excellent.  I had to go out today (never on weekends is my motto but . . . ) and stopped in at Fabricland.  I hit the senior time by pure chance, and they had someone at the door counting shoppers.  They had an area set aside for the excess, when one shopper left, one shopper was allowed in.  They also had the cutting table barricaded with plastic and chairs, you handed your fabric to the cutter and backed off about 5 feet.  Small store so not a lot of space, but well managed.  The Canadian Tire I went to wasn't  crowded for a Saturday morning in December and was also doing well for the precautions.

So it can be done.  There has to be the will.  We never really had the expectation of controlling it in North America the way Australia was able to, the whole thing was keeping the case load low enough not to overwhelm the health facilities until there was a vaccine.  Why is that so hard for people to understand?

Yes, I will confirm that we have a LOT of dumbasses here in Alberta.  At the same time as our numbers are skyrocketing (10.5% positivity yesterday) there were protests in several cities. Our contact tracing system is completely overwhelmed. 

Quebec is being hit hard again, too. First province to hit 2000 in one day.

[LaineyAZ]

I heard today of a family who had their regular Thanksgiving celebration with the normal amount of people but it was okay because "they used paper plates." 
It's sad and frustrating at the same time.

And as I mentioned in another thread, my belief is that the root cause is the decades-long drumbeat against government of any kind being competent and necessary.
Fast forward to 2020 when we need federal and state government leadership more than ever, but we get millions of Americans pushing back because they've been conditioned to disbelieve anyone in authority who gets a paycheck from the government.  And if you can't overcome that even with the evidence that thousands are dying every day of Covid-19, then I don't know what else will work.

[Kyle Schuant]

From an economic and social point of view we would have been better off paying every single guard $10 million each to work for 3 months in isolation. Now that we know this, we don't even have to set the salary at $10 million, obviously. Set it at $2000 a week and plenty of applicants will come.

It is worth noting that the Coates Inquiry concluded that where people have residences in Victoria, they could safely home quarantine, as the demonstrated history of this is that it was more effective in containing the virus than was hotel quarantine. The state government chose to reject this recommendation and force everyone into hotels. Which is to say they chose the more expensive, troublesome, and less reliable option.

Well, that's government for you.

[mathlete]

Newsom

No e on the end

No E? I KnewSomething always bothered me about that guy...

[mathlete]

We’re now right around the peak 7 day death average in the United States. We briefly matched this peak back in April, but based on 3 week lagged cases, we’re going to be at (likely well above) this number for a month at least. This will be by far, the worst we’ve seen.

It won’t help in the immediate, but President Biden needs to appoint a, “What the fuck happened?” commission. There were pretty clear failures at the top, of course, but we need to know all the reasons why we couldn’t get Americans to buy into taking action against a 100x 9/11 threat.

We need to quantify, if possible, the damage done to faith in institutions by everything from Gavin Newsom(-e) breaking his own orders/recommendations, to for profit cable news seeding disinformation. Basically, a COVID-19 commission report.

These are things we might want to know when this happens again in 50 years.

[stoaX]

Newsom

No e on the end

No E? I KnewSomething always bothered me about that guy...

My bad.   And to think that I have seen his name in print so many times and it never sunk in that he lacks an e at the end.

[GuitarStv]

We’re now right around the peak 7 day death average in the United States. We briefly matched this peak back in April, but based on 3 week lagged cases, we’re going to be at (likely well above) this number for a month at least. This will be by far, the worst we’ve seen.

It won’t help in the immediate, but President Biden needs to appoint a, “What the fuck happened?” commission. There were pretty clear failures at the top, of course, but we need to know all the reasons why we couldn’t get Americans to buy into taking action against a 100x 9/11 threat.

We need to quantify, if possible, the damage done to faith in institutions by everything from Gavin Newsom(-e) breaking his own orders/recommendations, to for profit cable news seeding disinformation. Basically, a COVID-19 commission report.

These are things we might want to know when this happens again in 50 years.

Agreed.

I don't know how you're going to get the political party that denied the pandemic, refused to take action until it was far too late, and then sowed disinformation from the very top to agree to participate in or listen to such a report.  Far more likely it will be painted as a partisan attack.

[mathlete]

Newsom

No e on the end

No E? I KnewSomething always bothered me about that guy...

My bad.   And to think that I have seen his name in print so many times and it never sunk in that he lacks an e at the end.

I’m the same way. I think the brain just kind of fills that stuff in sometimes.

[deborah]

Interesting article about the difference in the USand Australian response

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/07/arriving-in-the-us-from-australia-during-covid-was-like-walking-through-the-looking-glass

[RetiredAt63]

Interesting article about the difference in the USand Australian response

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/07/arriving-in-the-us-from-australia-during-covid-was-like-walking-through-the-looking-glass

And Canada is somewhere in the middle, both in approach and in numbers.   

It's pretty obvious that the more precautions are taken, the more difficult it is for the virus to spread.

[Caoineag]

And as I mentioned in another thread, my belief is that the root cause is the decades-long drumbeat against government of any kind being competent and necessary.
Fast forward to 2020 when we need federal and state government leadership more than ever, but we get millions of Americans pushing back because they've been conditioned to disbelieve anyone in authority who gets a paycheck from the government.  And if you can't overcome that even with the evidence that thousands are dying every day of Covid-19, then I don't know what else will work.

I suspect a big reason for why someone I know got sucked into conspiracy theories is because she felt the government was taking away her rights and that scared her.

Now she insists that it's just a cold, less harmful than the flu, the hospitals are lying about the number of patients and real people say that it's not worth the loss of freedom and damage to the economy. At this point, she is so out of touch with reality that I am not sure she wouldn't rationalize away a family members death from it. I really hope that she is an outlier but if not, America is in for a pretty bad winter...

[deborah]

ETA: I think Calif has approx the same population as Australia (40 million) so compare that with 30,000 positive covid in one day. YIKES!!! We suck here.

No - we've only got 25.5 million in Australia. We've had almost 28,000 positive cases all up.

[RetiredAt63]

ETA: I think Calif has approx the same population as Australia (40 million) so compare that with 30,000 positive covid in one day. YIKES!!! We suck here.

No - we've only got 25.5 million in Australia. We've had almost 28,000 positive cases all up.

Canada is 39 million so a better comparison. Today we have 73,379 active cases.  We had 1479 new cases on November 27, haven't found anything newer, but cases are up in most of the provinces, so that number is low.

[RetiredAt63]

ETA: I think Calif has approx the same population as Australia (40 million) so compare that with 30,000 positive covid in one day. YIKES!!! We suck here.

No - we've only got 25.5 million in Australia. We've had almost 28,000 positive cases all up.

Canada is 39 million so a better comparison. Today we have 73,379 active cases.  We had 1479 new cases on November 27, haven't found anything newer, but cases are up in most of the provinces, so that number is low.

EEK makes us in Calif even more terrible. 1.4 million total cases with about 20,000 deaths just here. My county of 3 million had over 2,000 new cases just today. I think LA county has around 9,000 new cases today. I think our governor did do a lot to shut down much of the state at first - and is trying again - but not much you can do if people inside the state as well as outside don't follow orders that are in place.

This is our latest:

Confirmed   415,182
Deaths          12,665
Recovered   329,138
Active           73,379
Cases Dec. 6   6,261

Of course today is Sunday, numbers jump up and down because of weekend delays.

Anyone wanting to track Canada, a good web site is
https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html

[Prairie Gal]

California = 427,000 square kms

Canada = 10 million square kms

Population density obviously as a lot to do with transmission.

[GuitarStv]

California = 427,000 square kms

Canada = 10 million square kms

Population density obviously as a lot to do with transmission.

I don't know if I buy that argument entirely.

We have a lot of space but tend to cluster pretty close together to live.  81% of Canada's population is urban compared to 95% of Californians . . . which is a difference, but not a 20:1 difference that land area comparison would suggest.

[T-Money$]

We’re now right around the peak 7 day death average in the United States. We briefly matched this peak back in April, but based on 3 week lagged cases, we’re going to be at (likely well above) this number for a month at least. This will be by far, the worst we’ve seen.

It won’t help in the immediate, but President Biden needs to appoint a, “What the fuck happened?” commission. There were pretty clear failures at the top, of course, but we need to know all the reasons why we couldn’t get Americans to buy into taking action against a 100x 9/11 threat.

We need to quantify, if possible, the damage done to faith in institutions by everything from Gavin Newsom(-e) breaking his own orders/recommendations, to for profit cable news seeding disinformation. Basically, a COVID-19 commission report.

These are things we might want to know when this happens again in 50 years.

The only way to avoid this crisis in the future is to prevent the hysterical, destructive left from creating public policy and to prosecute those that are responsible for the human created crisis. 

[RetiredAt63]

California = 427,000 square kms

Canada = 10 million square kms

Population density obviously as a lot to do with transmission.

I don't know if I buy that argument entirely.

We have a lot of space but tend to cluster pretty close together to live.  81% of Canada's population is urban compared to 95% of Californians . . . which is a difference, but not a 20:1 difference that land area comparison would suggest.

If you look at a light pollution map of Canada, the north is pretty dark = not many people.  Our land area is misleading re population density.

[OtherJen]

California = 427,000 square kms

Canada = 10 million square kms

Population density obviously as a lot to do with transmission.

I don't know if I buy that argument entirely.

We have a lot of space but tend to cluster pretty close together to live.  81% of Canada's population is urban compared to 95% of Californians . . . which is a difference, but not a 20:1 difference that land area comparison would suggest.

Yeah, I don't think anyone who's ever tried to drive through the GTA would think that Canada isn't subject to population density issues.

[GuitarStv]

California = 427,000 square kms

Canada = 10 million square kms

Population density obviously as a lot to do with transmission.

I don't know if I buy that argument entirely.

We have a lot of space but tend to cluster pretty close together to live.  81% of Canada's population is urban compared to 95% of Californians . . . which is a difference, but not a 20:1 difference that land area comparison would suggest.

Yeah, I don't think anyone who's ever tried to drive through the GTA would think that Canada isn't subject to population density issues.

More than 20% of the whole province of Ontario lives in Toronto.  And at least another 10% commute there every day.

:P

[RetiredAt63]

California = 427,000 square kms

Canada = 10 million square kms

Population density obviously as a lot to do with transmission.

I don't know if I buy that argument entirely.

We have a lot of space but tend to cluster pretty close together to live.  81% of Canada's population is urban compared to 95% of Californians . . . which is a difference, but not a 20:1 difference that land area comparison would suggest.

Yeah, I don't think anyone who's ever tried to drive through the GTA would think that Canada isn't subject to population density issues.

More than 20% of the whole province of Ontario lives in Toronto.  And at least another 10% commute there every day.

:P

Montreal is pretty high density too.  Not surprising that these 2 cities are so hard hit with Covid.

[deborah]

Over 86% of the Australian population is urbanised. According to the UN, we are the fifth most urbanised nation with more than 20million people in the world. The USA 82% and Canada 81% are less urbanised.

https://www.newgeography.com/content/006155-australia

[RetiredAt63]

Over 86% of the Australian population is urbanised. According to the UN, we are the fifth most urbanised nation with more than 20million people in the world. The USA 82% and Canada 81% are less urbanised.

https://www.newgeography.com/content/006155-australia

Geographically large parts of both countries can't easily support large populations.  Not surprising that our realities don't match the stereotypical Australian  bushwhacker and Canadian canoeist on a pristine Northern lake.

[MoseyingAlong]

I watched this TEDx talk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xp0O2vi8DX4

At about 6:30 into it, she talks about a study about how we learn from good or bad news changes with age. Basically after about 40-50 the ability to learn from bad news decreases.

Maybe this is why some older people are not responding the way some others expect. Note: I wrote "some," not "all.

I myself have thought that if I was a few decades older and had the choice of
1. isolate at home, see almost no one, decline in health due to lack of exercise and maybe die in 5 years or
2. continue seeing people, maintain my current fitness level and maybe die in a few months.
It's highly likely I'd choose option 2. A few elderly people I know have expressed in the past, before the pandemic, that they were at peace with death coming soon. So their choice to continue living their lives makes a lot of sense to me.

[jrhampt]

I watched this TEDx talk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xp0O2vi8DX4

At about 6:30 into it, she talks about a study about how we learn from good or bad news changes with age. Basically after about 40-50 the ability to learn from bad news decreases.

Maybe this is why some older people are not responding the way some others expect. Note: I wrote "some," not "all.

I myself have thought that if I was a few decades older and had the choice of
1. isolate at home, see almost no one, decline in health due to lack of exercise and maybe die in 5 years or
2. continue seeing people, maintain my current fitness level and maybe die in a few months.
It's highly likely I'd choose option 2. A few elderly people I know have expressed in the past, before the pandemic, that they were at peace with death coming soon. So their choice to continue living their lives makes a lot of sense to me.

Lack of exercise is a choice, though.  There's no reason you can't exercise at home!  I think that's a poor excuse.  But I do take your point.

[Kris]

I watched this TEDx talk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xp0O2vi8DX4

At about 6:30 into it, she talks about a study about how we learn from good or bad news changes with age. Basically after about 40-50 the ability to learn from bad news decreases.

Maybe this is why some older people are not responding the way some others expect. Note: I wrote "some," not "all.

I myself have thought that if I was a few decades older and had the choice of
1. isolate at home, see almost no one, decline in health due to lack of exercise and maybe die in 5 years or
2. continue seeing people, maintain my current fitness level and maybe die in a few months.
It's highly likely I'd choose option 2. A few elderly people I know have expressed in the past, before the pandemic, that they were at peace with death coming soon. So their choice to continue living their lives makes a lot of sense to me.

My husband and I are in our fifties and sixties. Given the choice you present, we both would, and are isolating. Because we do not want to get sick, but more importantly because we do not want to infect and possibly kill other people.

[RetiredAt63]

I watched this TEDx talk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xp0O2vi8DX4

At about 6:30 into it, she talks about a study about how we learn from good or bad news changes with age. Basically after about 40-50 the ability to learn from bad news decreases.

Maybe this is why some older people are not responding the way some others expect. Note: I wrote "some," not "all.

I myself have thought that if I was a few decades older and had the choice of
1. isolate at home, see almost no one, decline in health due to lack of exercise and maybe die in 5 years or
2. continue seeing people, maintain my current fitness level and maybe die in a few months.
It's highly likely I'd choose option 2. A few elderly people I know have expressed in the past, before the pandemic, that they were at peace with death coming soon. So their choice to continue living their lives makes a lot of sense to me.

My husband and I are in our fifties and sixties. Given the choice you present, we both would, and are isolating. Because we do not want to get sick, but more importantly because we do not want to infect and possibly kill other people.

This.  Plus there is old and then there is really old, and a lot of it is attitude.  I know people in their 80s and 90s who have zest for life and are not ready to go.

[mm1970]

Newsom

No e on the end

No E? I KnewSomething always bothered me about that guy...

My bad.   And to think that I have seen his name in print so many times and it never sunk in that he lacks an e at the end.

More than half the people complaining on our local message boards misspell his name.   I think because you are so used to typing "some".

[Paper Chaser]

I watched this TEDx talk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xp0O2vi8DX4

At about 6:30 into it, she talks about a study about how we learn from good or bad news changes with age. Basically after about 40-50 the ability to learn from bad news decreases.

Maybe this is why some older people are not responding the way some others expect. Note: I wrote "some," not "all.

I myself have thought that if I was a few decades older and had the choice of
1. isolate at home, see almost no one, decline in health due to lack of exercise and maybe die in 5 years or
2. continue seeing people, maintain my current fitness level and maybe die in a few months.
It's highly likely I'd choose option 2. A few elderly people I know have expressed in the past, before the pandemic, that they were at peace with death coming soon. So their choice to continue living their lives makes a lot of sense to me.

My husband and I are in our fifties and sixties. Given the choice you present, we both would, and are isolating. Because we do not want to get sick, but more importantly because we do not want to infect and possibly kill other people.

This.  Plus there is old and then there is really old, and a lot of it is attitude.  I know people in their 80s and 90s who have zest for life and are not ready to go.

It might be interesting to ask those people "in their 80s and 90s who have a zest for life" how they feel about restrictions in place. I'd wager that there would be a mix of responses pretty similar to other age groups, where some want to get out and take their chances, while others want to do everything they can to reduce the odds of contracting the virus. It wouldn't surprise me at all if an elderly person with a zest for life might be more inclined to take their chances (Around 80% survival rate in that demographic per the local stats that you shared) and continue to live their life how they see fit.

I've got quite a few elderly neighbors and family members. For many of them, they'd rather mask up and live their lives (situation 2 above) than be stuck and isolated for weeks or months at a time. It took an eye opening conversation with some of them near the beginning of the pandemic lockdowns for me to realize that thinking "we have to sacrifice to save the elderly" may not really be what these people want if it means extended isolation for them.

[mm1970]

I watched this TEDx talk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xp0O2vi8DX4

At about 6:30 into it, she talks about a study about how we learn from good or bad news changes with age. Basically after about 40-50 the ability to learn from bad news decreases.

Maybe this is why some older people are not responding the way some others expect. Note: I wrote "some," not "all.

I myself have thought that if I was a few decades older and had the choice of
1. isolate at home, see almost no one, decline in health due to lack of exercise and maybe die in 5 years or
2. continue seeing people, maintain my current fitness level and maybe die in a few months.
It's highly likely I'd choose option 2. A few elderly people I know have expressed in the past, before the pandemic, that they were at peace with death coming soon. So their choice to continue living their lives makes a lot of sense to me.

My husband and I are in our fifties and sixties. Given the choice you present, we both would, and are isolating. Because we do not want to get sick, but more importantly because we do not want to infect and possibly kill other people.

This.  Plus there is old and then there is really old, and a lot of it is attitude.  I know people in their 80s and 90s who have zest for life and are not ready to go.

Yup.  My in laws and stepfather are isolating (in their 70s and 80s).  My sisters are isolating (60s).  We are isolating (50s).

But I know plenty of others in their 60s and 70s who aren't.

California is a hot mess right now.  LA had over 10k new cases yesterday or the day before.

Locally, people are pissed about the shut down and "hey, it spreads at parties, why shut down restaurants?"  Uhhh... google dude.  Why do I have to google for you?  It still spreads at restaurants and bars, and the shutdown worked last time, and ... well ... our cases are higher than they have ever been.

And also "how come schools can STAY open but new schools can't OPEN?  Is it safe or not?"  Well, TRUMPER - it's not black/ white, it's a spectrum.  There's a REASON why the small, private, rich schools have opened and the others have not - it's because they have more SPACE, more TEACHERS and the ability to follow all of the guidelines. Also, they only can STAY open if they continue to stay COVID free.  For crying out loud, the local private HS has about 30-35 students per GRADE and my 9th grader has at least that many students in EACH class, with 500 students per grade.  We aren't even on the same playing field.  Duh.

[RetiredAt63]

I'm in Ontario, where so many things are shut down.  Our ("we seniors") zest for life has people learning new computer skills so we can socialise on Zoom, have meetings and speakers on Zoom, have choir practice on Zoom.  We met in each other's back yards, well distanced, when the weather was good.  We had free spins where we all brought our own chairs and sat well apart, outside.  We do the grocery shopping at 7am (priority hour) or use delivery or curb-side pickup.  We are all wearing masks and distancing and keeping our hands extra clean.  I personally have given up mascara for the duration, because I touch my eyes more when I wear it.  This sounds minor but my eyelashes aren't that visible when I don't wear it, and my eyes are the only part of my face that shows.  Oh well.     ;-)

We want to still be healthy when things open up.  It looks like the first vaccinations will happen this month!

[mm1970]

And of course there's a pretty big difference between one person's isolation and another's. Here in hot mess Hellifornia we are not only allowed but highly encouraged to get out doors and do active recreation. Alone, or with household members. Im At a park right now after a long solo hike and it is pretty darn good. A few people around but not many.  Heck I even went to IKEA this morning and it was empty (stocking up on Christmas goodies). To me, an introvert, it is all good but I do recognise for others even our freedoms during a shut down are too restrictive and they feel The need to be in close contact regardless.The problem comes when people don't follow the mandate and gather in big groups of non-household members,  often unmasked and close together. Or retail stores etc don't follow the 20% capacity limit. That's when the "authorities" step in and close everything down.

Yup, my small home rural county in the northeast is exploding because people refuse to mask up at Walmart.

We just got a call today that an in-law's elderly (late 70s) relatives - who decided to FLY to the casino over Thanksgiving, have COVID.  The husband is on a ventilator and it doesn't look good.

[OtherJen]

I'm in Ontario, where so many things are shut down.  Our ("we seniors") zest for life has people learning new computer skills so we can socialise on Zoom, have meetings and speakers on Zoom, have choir practice on Zoom.  We met in each other's back yards, well distanced, when the weather was good.  We had free spins where we all brought our own chairs and sat well apart, outside.  We do the grocery shopping at 7am (priority hour) or use delivery or curb-side pickup.  We are all wearing masks and distancing and keeping our hands extra clean.  I personally have given up mascara for the duration, because I touch my eyes more when I wear it.  This sounds minor but my eyelashes aren't that visible when I don't wear it, and my eyes are the only part of my face that shows.  Oh well.     ;-)

We want to still be healthy when things open up.  It looks like the first vaccinations will happen this month!

Oh, yeah. My elderly friends have gotten super proficient with Zoom. They're still energetic and mentally sound and definitely want to be around next year. For most of them, they're at home a lot more than usual but are not afraid to mask up and patronize local businesses during off-hours as needed. My dad is still doing in-person grocery shopping, but only during the early senior hours. Mom puts on a mask and goes to work every day (in an office setting).

[Shane]

I watched this TEDx talk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xp0O2vi8DX4

At about 6:30 into it, she talks about a study about how we learn from good or bad news changes with age. Basically after about 40-50 the ability to learn from bad news decreases.

Maybe this is why some older people are not responding the way some others expect. Note: I wrote "some," not "all.

I myself have thought that if I was a few decades older and had the choice of
1. isolate at home, see almost no one, decline in health due to lack of exercise and maybe die in 5 years or
2. continue seeing people, maintain my current fitness level and maybe die in a few months.
It's highly likely I'd choose option 2. A few elderly people I know have expressed in the past, before the pandemic, that they were at peace with death coming soon. So their choice to continue living their lives makes a lot of sense to me.

My husband and I are in our fifties and sixties. Given the choice you present, we both would, and are isolating. Because we do not want to get sick, but more importantly because we do not want to infect and possibly kill other people.

This.  Plus there is old and then there is really old, and a lot of it is attitude.  I know people in their 80s and 90s who have zest for life and are not ready to go.

It might be interesting to ask those people "in their 80s and 90s who have a zest for life" how they feel about restrictions in place. I'd wager that there would be a mix of responses pretty similar to other age groups, where some want to get out and take their chances, while others want to do everything they can to reduce the odds of contracting the virus. It wouldn't surprise me at all if an elderly person with a zest for life might be more inclined to take their chances (Around 80% survival rate in that demographic per the local stats that you shared) and continue to live their life how they see fit.

I've got quite a few elderly neighbors and family members. For many of them, they'd rather mask up and live their lives (situation 2 above) than be stuck and isolated for weeks or months at a time. It took an eye opening conversation with some of them near the beginning of the pandemic lockdowns for me to realize that thinking "we have to sacrifice to save the elderly" may not really be what these people want if it means extended isolation for them.

A friend's 92 year old mom is in a nursing home on the other side of the country from where she lives. Since March, my friend has had to cancel multiple plans to visit with her mom, because of covid outbreaks in the nursing home. Finally, a couple of months ago, my friend successfully got permission to see her mom in person. She flew across the US. I picked her up at the airport. We both wore masks in the car and left the windows open for ventilation. In the week that my friend was here, she got to have two short in-person visits with her mom, but the third planned visit had to be cancelled, because someone in her mom's unit tested positive for covid. Hopefully, my friend will be able to start coming for longer visits with her mom, sometime next year, but there's still a very real chance that my friend's mom will die, without being able to see her children in person again. At 92, her days are numbered...

[dreadmoose]

It might be interesting to ask those people "in their 80s and 90s who have a zest for life" how they feel about restrictions in place. I'd wager that there would be a mix of responses pretty similar to other age groups, where some want to get out and take their chances, while others want to do everything they can to reduce the odds of contracting the virus. It wouldn't surprise me at all if an elderly person with a zest for life might be more inclined to take their chances (Around 80% survival rate in that demographic per the local stats that you shared) and continue to live their life how they see fit.

I've got quite a few elderly neighbors and family members. For many of them, they'd rather mask up and live their lives (situation 2 above) than be stuck and isolated for weeks or months at a time. It took an eye opening conversation with some of them near the beginning of the pandemic lockdowns for me to realize that thinking "we have to sacrifice to save the elderly" may not really be what these people want if it means extended isolation for them.

Remember that to ask them retrospectively you'll have to assume a magnitude higher chance of catching the virus, as lockdowns and masks and restrictions that we put in place so we didn't have to sacrifice a portion of the population's lives have slowed down transmission.

I think your thought experiment here may more likely prove how poorly humans can parse statistical information and risks than anything about actual will to live.

[GardenerB]

Does the data here match what people are seeing in their State?  It shows most States' hospitals are running at 70-90% capacity, with 10-20% of capacity due to C19 cases.  I know typically hospitals run up to 90-100% capacity during worst times (ours was at 115% during last winter before prepping for C19):

https://protect-public.hhs.gov/datasets/state-representative-estimates-for-hospital-utilization/data?geometry=77.616%2C-16.870%2C-84.455%2C72.215&orderBy=state_name

I saw a post of this graphically and was wondering how/why places like North and South Dakota, or Florida and California, could all have the same or similar rates regardless of how light or strict their lockdown measures were/are.

[T-Money$]

Poetic justice is so much better than social justice.

https://www.wtae.com/article/pennsylvania-gov-tom-wolf-tests-positive-for-covid-19/34920856

I encourage Gov Wolf to visit his friends Cuomo and Fauci as soon as possible. 

[OtherJen]

I think the concern, at least in part, is the overwhelm of ICU/critical care services, especially in underserved rural areas.

‘There’s No Place for Them to Go’: I.C.U. Beds Near Capacity Across U.S. (NY Times)

[scottish]

Poetic justice is so much better than social justice.

https://www.wtae.com/article/pennsylvania-gov-tom-wolf-tests-positive-for-covid-19/34920856

I encourage Gov Wolf to visit his friends Cuomo and Fauci as soon as possible.

What's poetic about Tom Wolf getting sick?    He's not a covid-19 denier...

[mm1970]

Poetic justice is so much better than social justice.

https://www.wtae.com/article/pennsylvania-gov-tom-wolf-tests-positive-for-covid-19/34920856

I encourage Gov Wolf to visit his friends Cuomo and Fauci as soon as possible.

What's poetic about Tom Wolf getting sick?    He's not a covid-19 denier...

+1.  He agrees COVID is real, and he takes precautions.  Nothing poetic about it.

Poetic would be the deniers and anti-maskers getting COVID.