Had we known with a higher degree of certainty develop and roll out highly effective vaccine really would be ~18 months at the beginning, would the collective opinion on the mitigation measures have changed?
A very interesting question. I think a clearer time table could certainly shift opinions in either direction.
But I believe that leadership was by far the determent factor in people's opinions on mitigation. Countries such as Germany, Australia and Canada have done dramatically better than the United States in terms of raw numbers and their leaders have seen a sustained increase in approval rating.
In the United States; however, the response from the Federal Government was very erratic and unscientific from the getgo. In February, the president predicted that the virus would go away with the coming of warm weather in April. He also called attempts to take the virus seriously a hoax aimed at harming his administration. In March, he appeared to be taking it more seriously, and listening to the advice of experts and calling for a shelter in place. The CARES act was also passed in March. This was the high point of the Federal response.
This wouldn't last though. Just days after the shutdown, the President was ruminating on how we "can't let the cure be worse than the disease". He was calling for packed churches in Easter and for the economy to open up again.
At this point, the Federal government completely abdicated responsibility for the virus to state and local governments. State and local officials can order lockdowns, but they are severely hamstrung in their ability to provide fiscal relief for the fallout. The Federal government is uniquely positioned to do that. Here is an incomplete list of things the President has done since, just off the top of my head.
-Insisted on publicly feuding with his point man on the virus, including mocking him for a first pitch thrown out at a baseball game and inventing an invitation to throw out a first pitch of his own
-Crusaded against beleaguered governors trying to take the virus seriously and save lives, stoking resentment that culminated in an FBI foiled kidnapping plot
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gretchen_Whitmer_kidnapping_plot-Made fun of his political opponents for taking precautions against spreading the virus
-Continued to hold public events where dozens in his circle, himself included, were infected
-Floated conspiracy theories about how doctors are inflating COVID death numbers
-Declared in early October that any further relief would not be negotiated until after he won reelection | it's worth noting that the House has passed another relief bill and it is 100% within the president's power to pressure the senate and then sign the bill, even as a lame duck. A vast majority of his time and attention has gone instead, to chasing down batshit conspiracy theories about election fraud.
50,000 Americans at minimum will die between now and the inauguration of the new president, including many thousand who haven't even been infected yet.I am 100% confident that there's a reality in which our lockdown measures were both more severe and more popular. This was a failure of leadership to sell the public on the importance of precautions and offer them support.
It is impossible to overstate what a fuck up this was. We will be untangling it for years.