Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 675107 times)

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4200 on: October 23, 2020, 09:25:40 AM »
Plenty of essential workers have been going about their lives pretty normally since this started and been very successful at it. If you're not in a high risk group, and isolation is getting to be too much, mask up, stay 6ft apart, and go live your life.

My local live theatre is closed, my choir and my social groups are on Zoom.  So "normal" just isn't out there.

My grandparents died in the Spanish Flu epidemic.  I respect the lethality of some viruses.  Diseases can cause damage that lasts the rest of a person's life, rheumatic fever (heart damage), polio (delayed muscle issues) and chickenpox (shingles) are just 3 examples.  So I respect the fact that Covid can cause long-lasting health effects.

For those who hate masks (not those here, I know) isn't it a good thing they weren't living in London during the Blitz?

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4201 on: October 23, 2020, 09:31:08 AM »
Plenty of essential workers have been going about their lives pretty normally since this started and been very successful at it. If you're not in a high risk group, and isolation is getting to be too much, mask up, stay 6ft apart, and go live your life.

My local live theatre is closed, my choir and my social groups are on Zoom.  So "normal" just isn't out there.

My grandparents died in the Spanish Flu epidemic.  I respect the lethality of some viruses.  Diseases can cause damage that lasts the rest of a person's life, rheumatic fever (heart damage), polio (delayed muscle issues) and chickenpox (shingles) are just 3 examples.  So I respect the fact that Covid can cause long-lasting health effects.

For those who hate masks (not those here, I know) isn't it a good thing they weren't living in London during the Blitz?

Right. I wonder how the “but muh freeedom” anti-maskers would have reacted to blackout laws during the World Wars. Also an issue of national security, also the government telling you what to do with your private property (turn off outside lights, hang and use blackout curtains). I wonder how many whiny “but I don’t WANNA” anti-curtain protestors there were back then.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4202 on: October 23, 2020, 09:42:04 AM »
Plenty of essential workers have been going about their lives pretty normally since this started and been very successful at it. If you're not in a high risk group, and isolation is getting to be too much, mask up, stay 6ft apart, and go live your life.

My local live theatre is closed, my choir and my social groups are on Zoom.  So "normal" just isn't out there.

My grandparents died in the Spanish Flu epidemic.  I respect the lethality of some viruses.  Diseases can cause damage that lasts the rest of a person's life, rheumatic fever (heart damage), polio (delayed muscle issues) and chickenpox (shingles) are just 3 examples.  So I respect the fact that Covid can cause long-lasting health effects.

For those who hate masks (not those here, I know) isn't it a good thing they weren't living in London during the Blitz?

Right. I wonder how the “but muh freeedom” anti-maskers would have reacted to blackout laws during the World Wars. Also an issue of national security, also the government telling you what to do with your private property (turn off outside lights, hang and use blackout curtains). I wonder how many whiny “but I don’t WANNA” anti-curtain protestors there were back then.

They would have kept lights on and then used their 2nd amendment rights to simply shoot down the Nazi bombers of course.  If Britain had more lax gun laws they would have ended the second world war in a couple weeks.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4203 on: October 23, 2020, 09:43:57 AM »


Right. I wonder how the “but muh freeedom” anti-maskers would have reacted to blackout laws during the World Wars. Also an issue of national security, also the government telling you what to do with your private property (turn off outside lights, hang and use blackout curtains). I wonder how many whiny “but I don’t WANNA” anti-curtain protestors there were back then.
Well, the whole thing was very thoroughly policed by the ARP (Air Raid Precautions) Wardens, but the main incentive was not giving the Luftwaffe a signal as to where to drop their bombs.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4204 on: October 23, 2020, 09:45:08 AM »


Right. I wonder how the “but muh freeedom” anti-maskers would have reacted to blackout laws during the World Wars. Also an issue of national security, also the government telling you what to do with your private property (turn off outside lights, hang and use blackout curtains). I wonder how many whiny “but I don’t WANNA” anti-curtain protestors there were back then.
Well, the whole thing was very thoroughly policed by the ARP (Air Raid Precautions) Wardens, but the main incentive was not giving the Luftwaffe a signal as to where to drop their bombs.

I know why it was done. I wonder if there were any overgrown toddlers who refused to comply and whined about personal freedom.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4205 on: October 23, 2020, 09:50:49 AM »


Right. I wonder how the “but muh freeedom” anti-maskers would have reacted to blackout laws during the World Wars. Also an issue of national security, also the government telling you what to do with your private property (turn off outside lights, hang and use blackout curtains). I wonder how many whiny “but I don’t WANNA” anti-curtain protestors there were back then.
Well, the whole thing was very thoroughly policed by the ARP (Air Raid Precautions) Wardens, but the main incentive was not giving the Luftwaffe a signal as to where to drop their bombs.

I know why it was done. I wonder if there were any overgrown toddlers who refused to comply and whined about personal freedom.

I'm sure there were some ..... right up until they heard planes overhead! It's a bit more immediate than invisible germs.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4206 on: October 23, 2020, 10:01:32 AM »
That logic would make a lot more sense if we didn't have over a million dead people from that invisible virus.  The virus is invisible, but the wake of its destruction is very visible and tangible. 

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4207 on: October 23, 2020, 10:07:41 AM »
That logic would make a lot more sense if we didn't have over a million dead people from that invisible virus.  The virus is invisible, but the wake of its destruction is very visible and tangible.

Yep. Just under 3000 people were killed on 9/11 and TSA was completely overhauled, the Patriot Act was signed into law, and we started a war in Afghanistan.

We're at 200,000+ COVID deaths this year in the US alone, and an unknown number of cases of long-term COVID-related morbidity. We won't understand the full extent of the latter for years. It's a serious national health and security issue.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4208 on: October 23, 2020, 10:10:11 AM »
That logic would make a lot more sense if we didn't have over a million dead people from that invisible virus.  The virus is invisible, but the wake of its destruction is very visible and tangible.

Yep. Just under 3000 people were killed on 9/11 and TSA was completely overhauled, the Patriot Act was signed into law, and we started a war in Afghanistan.

We're at 200,000+ COVID deaths this year in the US alone, and an unknown number of cases of long-term COVID-related morbidity. We won't understand the full extent of the latter for years. It's a serious national health and security issue.

But you haven't started any new wars over it yet!  #silverlining

Just Joe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4209 on: October 23, 2020, 10:13:31 AM »
Read up on militia road blocks and the next civil war. There are those few who want to Army cosplay... 

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4210 on: October 23, 2020, 10:28:58 AM »
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/hospitals-are-full-but-some-parts-of-idaho-refuse-mask-rules-2/

i know it's idaho and all and very right leaning, but to have a board member spout off this kind of BS (highlighted in bold) is truly stunning. what a dumb country we have.
Quote

BOISE — Moments after hearing an Idaho hospital was overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients and looking at sending people as far away as Seattle for care, members of a regional health department board voted Thursday to repeal a local mask mandate.

“Most of our medical surgical beds at Kootenai Health are full,” Panhandle Health District epidemiologist Jeff Lee told board members in the state’s third most populated county.

The hospital in Coeur d’Alene reached 99% capacity a day earlier, even after doubling up patients in rooms and buying more hospital beds. Idaho is one of several states where a surge of COVID-19 infections is overwhelming hospitals, likely in part because cooler weather is sending people indoors, U.S. health officials said.

“We’re facing staff shortages, and we have a lot of physician fatigue. This has been going on for seven months — we’re tired,” Lee said.

He introduced several doctors who testified about the struggle COVID-19 patients face, the burden on hospitals and how masks reduce the spread of the virus.

But the board voted 4-3 to end the mask mandate. Board members overseeing the operations of Idaho’s public health districts are appointed by county commissioners and not required to have any medical experience.

Board member Walt Kirby said he was giving up on the idea of controlling the spread of coronavirus.

“I personally do not care whether anybody wears a mask or not. If they want to be dumb enough to walk around and expose themselves and others, that’s fine with me,” Kirby said. “Nobody’s wearing the damned mask anyway. … I’m sitting back and watching them catch it and die. Hopefully I’ll live through it.”

Another member, Allen Banks, denied COVID-19 exists.

“Something’s making these people sick, and I’m pretty sure that it’s not coronavirus, so the question that you should be asking is, ‘What’s making them sick?’” he told the medical professionals who testified.

Similar scenes — with doctors and nurses asking officials for help, only to be met with reluctance or even open skepticism — have played out across the conservative state. Idaho is sixth in the nation for new coronavirus cases per capita, with the average number of confirmed cases increasing by more than 55% every day over the past two weeks.

Still, Republican Gov. Brad Little has declined to issue a statewide mask mandate or limit crowd sizes beyond requiring social distancing at large events and in businesses, which is seldom enforced. Instead, Little has left it up to local health departments and school districts to make the tough decisions that sometimes come with blowback from the public.

In the southern city of Twin Falls, hospital officials told health board members this week that they too were in danger of being overwhelmed, with one out of every four hospitalized patients sick with COVID-19. The region’s hospitals, operated by St. Luke’s Health System, have been forced to postpone nonemergency surgeries and ship patients elsewhere.

“I want to be very clear: Punting those decisions is saying we’re willing to put that burden on the shoulders of our front-line staff,” Mike Fenello, St. Luke’s vice president of population health, told board members in asking for a mask mandate Wednesday. “Will you please help those on the front lines? They need you to help.”

Instead, board members decided to write a letter to the governor asking him for a statewide mask requirement. The board did restrict indoor gatherings to 50 people, except for grocery stores, schools, religious institutions, polling places and nonprofits.

In central Idaho, Adams County commissioners have approved a resolution rescinding all orders, recommendations and restrictions related to COVID-19.

“And we resolve that Adams County is open for business and back to normal,” the commissioners wrote.

Adams County is very sparsely populated, with about 4,250 residents. So far, it’s been relatively untouched by the virus, with just 32 documented cases.

Health leaders in the Boise region and in eastern Idaho have been more willing to take sometimes unpopular steps. Residents in Ada County, Idaho’s most populated, and Valley County, a resort destination with many visitors, are required to wear masks in public, and health officials have issued safety recommendations to schools.

Idaho reported 987 new COVID-19 cases Thursday, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University, bringing the total to more than 56,600 since the pandemic began. Infections are thought to be higher because a lack of testing and other factors. At least 553 people have died of the virus, including seven reported Thursday.
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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4211 on: October 23, 2020, 11:00:52 AM »
We are coming into winter.....  snowed 6" this week.

We've been really careful this whole time, only seeing 2 family members and 2 neighbor families (outside only).

But as we come in to winter, mental health is already not good, and outdoor socializing is more and more challenging.  We did buy a patio heater.  IDK.  Everything sucks, life is terrible.

No, life is not terrible.  Time to adjust your thinking.  You’re still healthy (I assume), you have a home, family and food on the table and probably a job.  I can think of much harder lives than that.

I hate comments like this. NOT HELPFUL. It's not the suffering olympics. People are allowed to be miserable even if someone has it worse. And it is also a giant middle finger to mental illness.

You can be miserable if you want to.  But wallowing in unhappiness is not going to make you feel better.  Maybe try to find something that will?
I am going to add on to the fact that this is NOT HELPFUL.  I have a family full of "suck it up", "deal with it", "quit whining" and "look on the bright side" people.

What does that do?  It minimizes peoples struggles.  It minimizes people's problems with mental illness.  Ask me how that whole attitude helped my mother, who refused to get help with her mental health because "I should be strong", and "it's weak to get help/ go to a psychiatrist/ take meds."  I'll tell you: she drank herself to death.  Also, ask me how that attitude helped my when my adult nephew told me to stop whining when I was:
- 6 months pregnant
- 42 years old
- hadn't had a full night's sleep in MONTHS
- and my mother had just DRANK HERSELF TO DEATH

There is a time, and a place, for positive thinking.  Nobody is saying that there isn't, and that we shouldn't all use our grit to think about what good is happening in our lives, and how to problem-solve the bad and difficult things.

I have taken to completely ignoring the news.  I am going on two weeks today.  I had zero idea there was a presidential debate last night until someone at work brought it up this morning.

For those suffering, seriously, take a break from the news. This is something I've aspired to and finally pulled the trigger. This article just from yesterday is so on point -- https://zora.medium.com/10-days-without-media-changed-my-life-86f6f951ab36

I'm going to +1 on this.  It is so much better for my mental health when I avoid facebook and the news.  I don't have regular TV.  I know people talk about it being a privilege, but really.
- I have already voted
- I read enough about national and local issues (where I search out specific information) to be an informed voter
- I attend enough school board meetings and school meetings to be informed about school reopening
- I track our county's COVID cases on my own
- I follow a few people on IG who are informed

I really am barely hanging on with a full time job and two kids in virtual school.  I can stay relatively informed without watching debates or hearing about what the orange man did today.  I can vote my conscience, do my best to ease the suffering of others, but I am not going to feel guilty about setting boundaries on what I can and cannot deal with.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4212 on: October 23, 2020, 11:09:40 AM »
But you haven't started any new wars over it yet!  #silverlining

"Yet" being the operative word of course. We're a creative bunch over here in the States.

bigblock440

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4213 on: October 23, 2020, 11:29:53 AM »
That logic would make a lot more sense if we didn't have over a million dead people from that invisible virus.  The virus is invisible, but the wake of its destruction is very visible and tangible.

And 85 million died in WWII, a minuscule threat by comparison.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4214 on: October 23, 2020, 12:15:38 PM »
That logic would make a lot more sense if we didn't have over a million dead people from that invisible virus.  The virus is invisible, but the wake of its destruction is very visible and tangible.

And 85 million died in WWII, a minuscule threat by comparison.

1. who would make that comparison?
2. is it though? WWWII was over a 6 year period.  Coronavirus has been over a 6 month period, with extreme mitigation measures taken worldwide.  If you scale it up it seems like the death toll is within an order of magnitude of the largest war ever.  I don't think it's making your point as strongly as you think.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4215 on: October 23, 2020, 12:29:56 PM »
I don't know that either comparison is particularly helpful.  It's a virus, not a world war.

bigblock440

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4216 on: October 23, 2020, 01:11:27 PM »
That logic would make a lot more sense if we didn't have over a million dead people from that invisible virus.  The virus is invisible, but the wake of its destruction is very visible and tangible.

And 85 million died in WWII, a minuscule threat by comparison.

1. who would make that comparison?
2. is it though? WWWII was over a 6 year period.  Coronavirus has been over a 6 month period, with extreme mitigation measures taken worldwide.  If you scale it up it seems like the death toll is within an order of magnitude of the largest war ever.  I don't think it's making your point as strongly as you think.

1. The 6 posts directly before yours.
2. I guess we'll find out in a few years, since it's not going away.  Also, it's been 10 months.  Assuming the rates stay the same, it'd still only be 1/10th in total volume.  Is it really that big of a surprise that many people just aren't that scared of it?

GardenerB

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4217 on: October 23, 2020, 02:58:35 PM »
That logic would make a lot more sense if we didn't have over a million dead people from that invisible virus.  The virus is invisible, but the wake of its destruction is very visible and tangible.

And 85 million died in WWII, a minuscule threat by comparison.

1. who would make that comparison?
2. is it though? WWWII was over a 6 year period.  Coronavirus has been over a 6 month period, with extreme mitigation measures taken worldwide.  If you scale it up it seems like the death toll is within an order of magnitude of the largest war ever.  I don't think it's making your point as strongly as you think.

I think it would be better to compare the % of world population deaths, if that comparison should be made.

For % comparison:

- Estimated worldwide deaths 2019 was 58 million (2020 without C19 I believe is 59 million)
- C19 as of Oct 23/20 - 1.14 million = 1.9% of deaths (but year not finished)
- Estimates for next five years between 1.6 to 8.8 million total (ref below)

Reference - published doc on the estimated mortality for 2019 to 2024 (5 years) due to C19 and, worse, the deaths estimated to be caused by lockdowns and poverty.  Based on the IFR ranges accepted by the WHO and CDC so using their figures:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13423

I know there is criticism for Ioannidis, but this paper and his IFR range paper are now complete for peer review and accepted by the WHO.

https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf

(Influenza deaths for comparison are all over the place. 'Up to' 650,000 per year globally (with some vaccine coverage).  For US, 2018 was 80,000 directly from influenza.) 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(18)30310-4/fulltext
https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

Also on the topic of vaccines, their end-goal is not so simple:

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/10/10/a-sars-cov2-vaccine-dont-hold-your-breath/

“These [vaccine] protocols do not emphasize the most important ramifications of COVID-19 that people are most interested in preventing: overall infection, hospitalization, and death.”

[The COVID-19 vaccine trials are only looking to see if these vaccines reduce symptoms that may be as mild as cough and headache. They are NOT requiring that the vaccines reduce the risk of infection, hospitalization or death.]"


marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4218 on: October 23, 2020, 03:05:46 PM »
@middo just got you post a few pages earlier.

Congrats to you and Victorians for getting through lockdown, and actually flattening the curve!

A bit rich of the federal health minister shooting his mouth off at Andrews. Perhaps if his tracing app worked we wouldn’t have been in the second wave situation in the first place.


Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4219 on: October 23, 2020, 08:24:46 PM »
Regarding endpoints for the vaccine trials: death rates are almost never the endpoint for vaccine trials, as they are a secondary effect of the primary endpoint, preventing infection. You can’t die of covid 19 if you don’t get it. The main reason the trial endpoint is not deaths from covid is the size of the trial powered to discriminate that endpoint would be gigantic. I roughly calculated a 50% efficacy at preventing deaths (from estimated current 0.1% to 0.05%) would require about 70,000 volunteers for an 80% power and alpha of 0.05. Current trials are powered for a 70% decrease, though.
Also they require PCR testing so it’s not based on symptoms alone.

A second point: An IRB will be unlikely to approve a trial of that size if another valid primary endpoint can be evaluated with a smaller trial size.

Finally, one of the secondary endpoints, which he left off, is prevention of severe/critical COVId-19. This is a better endpoint than death with covid-19, since it is also captures those patients who are severely ill but survive, along with those who ultimately die. 

Regarding the trial secondary completion date: that is a regulatory date upon which the sponsor must stop collecting data on patients for the purposes of the primary endpoints. It is a regulatory time point, and has nothing to do with time to answer the primary endpoint questions.

I do agree that, since we will not have all safety data available on an accelerated timeline, we shouldn’t make the vaccine mandatory. I doubt that there will be long-term effects due to the nature of the vaccine and the expected shorter duration of efficacy in T cell response, but it wouldn’t be ethical to force use of these vaccines.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2020, 08:45:50 PM by Abe »

alsoknownasDean

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4220 on: October 23, 2020, 11:33:24 PM »
Congrats to you and Victorians for getting through lockdown, and actually flattening the curve!

It's been a long slog (I haven't seen my family since mid-June), but we're nearly there!

Let's hope the latest outbreak doesn't put us back too far.

I live in a postcode that now has zero active cases, and went to a supermarket today in another postcode also with zero active cases. Everyone in the supermarket was wearing a mask, but I was still uncomfortable as it was busy. I can only imagine how the supermarket staff feel.

middo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4221 on: October 24, 2020, 05:50:12 AM »
Congrats to you and Victorians for getting through lockdown, and actually flattening the curve!

It's been a long slog (I haven't seen my family since mid-June), but we're nearly there!

Let's hope the latest outbreak doesn't put us back too far.

I live in a postcode that now has zero active cases, and went to a supermarket today in another postcode also with zero active cases. Everyone in the supermarket was wearing a mask, but I was still uncomfortable as it was busy. I can only imagine how the supermarket staff feel.

Yes, it has been 9 months since I saw my father who lives 35 kms from me.  Hopefully I will see him before Christmas.

It has been a long slog but with 7 cases today (7 local transmission cases in all of Australia today) we should be opening up soon.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4222 on: October 25, 2020, 11:55:10 PM »
Yes, it has been 9 months since I saw my father who lives 35 kms from me.  Hopefully I will see him before Christmas.

It has been a long slog but with 7 cases today (7 local transmission cases in all of Australia today) we should be opening up soon.

Hopefully soon with today's update. Zero new cases!

https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/updates/coronavirus-covid-19/statement-premier-26-october-2020

kei te pai

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4223 on: October 26, 2020, 01:16:33 AM »
Congratulations to all the Victorians! Looking forward to our travel bubble in the not too distant future, hopefully!

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4224 on: October 26, 2020, 01:19:47 PM »
My SO's family recently lost its most vulnerable member to COVID-19. As she spent her final days alone and afraid, in physical distress, one of her adult children continued diligently spouting anti-mask vitriol and virus denialism to anyone who would listen. The degree to which people have lost their minds over this is staggering.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4225 on: October 26, 2020, 01:40:25 PM »
My SO's family recently lost its most vulnerable member to COVID-19. As she spent her final days alone and afraid, in physical distress, one of her adult children continued diligently spouting anti-mask vitriol and virus denialism to anyone who would listen. The degree to which people have lost their minds over this is staggering.

Well, at least you know why the loss happened.

sui generis

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4226 on: October 26, 2020, 02:17:45 PM »
My SO's family recently lost its most vulnerable member to COVID-19. As she spent her final days alone and afraid, in physical distress, one of her adult children continued diligently spouting anti-mask vitriol and virus denialism to anyone who would listen. The degree to which people have lost their minds over this is staggering.

Sorry for your/SO's loss.  I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.  My sister's whole family got COVID and came around fine, but my sister still won't speak to her mother-in-law, who they caught it from and who had deceived them about her activities (she just *had* to go dancing and drinking!  She was so sick of staying hooommmmeee) before  being allowed to interact with the kids.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4227 on: October 26, 2020, 08:55:13 PM »
I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.
I think you should consider seriously what you are saying.

sui generis

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4228 on: October 26, 2020, 09:25:15 PM »
I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.
I think you should consider seriously what you are saying.
I did.

middo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4229 on: October 26, 2020, 09:56:26 PM »
Congratulations to all the Victorians! Looking forward to our travel bubble in the not too distant future, hopefully!

We had a planned trip to Queenstown for some skiing (not very Mustachian) canned this year.  Hopefully next year!

kei te pai

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4230 on: October 27, 2020, 02:10:23 AM »
We are hoping to ‘jump the ditch’ for a wedding next year. I am now cautiously optimistic about the chances.There is no way I am spending 2 weeks + in isolation much as I love the happy couple.

LightTripper

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4231 on: October 27, 2020, 06:19:05 AM »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/27/proportion-of-people-in-england-with-covid-antibodies-has-fallen-study-says

This is quite interesting, and a bit depressing.  Looks like immunity doesn't last that long. 

I guess long term this just means the vaccine will become an annual thing for older people, like flu.  Short term... seems like definitely not good news.

T-Money$

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4232 on: October 27, 2020, 09:48:48 AM »
Turns out the scientists really don’t believe in “science” after all...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/top-scientific-journals-reject-controversial-danish-study-on-effectiveness-of-face-masks-against-coronavirus-report/ar-BB1aiLvF

Top scientific journals reject 'controversial' Danish study on effectiveness of face masks against coronavirus: Report

Some of the world's top scientific journals are being accused of suppressing the results of a study aimed at determining the effectiveness of face masks against the spread of the coronavirus.

"They all said no," said Christian Torp-Pedersen, chief physician at North Zealand Hospital’s research department, who was involved in the study. "We cannot start discussing what they are dissatisfied with because, in that case, we must also explain what the study showed, and we do not want to discuss that until it is published."

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32829745/

« Last Edit: October 27, 2020, 09:50:37 AM by T-Money$ »

T-Money$

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4233 on: October 27, 2020, 09:53:42 AM »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/27/proportion-of-people-in-england-with-covid-antibodies-has-fallen-study-says

This is quite interesting, and a bit depressing.  Looks like immunity doesn't last that long. 

I guess long term this just means the vaccine will become an annual thing for older people, like flu.  Short term... seems like definitely not good news.

Measured COVID-19 antibodies do not equal immunity. 

T-Money$

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LightTripper

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4235 on: October 27, 2020, 10:01:50 AM »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/27/proportion-of-people-in-england-with-covid-antibodies-has-fallen-study-says

This is quite interesting, and a bit depressing.  Looks like immunity doesn't last that long. 

I guess long term this just means the vaccine will become an annual thing for older people, like flu.  Short term... seems like definitely not good news.

Measured COVID-19 antibodies do not equal immunity.

For sure - but longer lived antibodies would seem like good news (the team quoted in the article as saying "antibodies were still good indicator of protection against reinfections").  The article does talk about that uncertainty more generally though (and the fact that a good vaccine may well provide more or longer lasting protection than natural immunity post-infection).  Hence "a bit depressing" rather than "extremely depressing". 

bigblock440

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4236 on: October 27, 2020, 10:05:23 AM »
I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.
I think you should consider seriously what you are saying.
I did.

Everybody who's ever had the flu should also be jailed for murder.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4237 on: October 27, 2020, 10:09:42 AM »
I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.
I think you should consider seriously what you are saying.
I did.

Everybody who's ever had the flu should also be jailed for murder.

Hmm.  Claims that coronavirus is the same as the flu . . . I thought we were past this.

former player

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4238 on: October 27, 2020, 10:28:26 AM »
Turns out the scientists really don’t believe in “science” after all...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/top-scientific-journals-reject-controversial-danish-study-on-effectiveness-of-face-masks-against-coronavirus-report/ar-BB1aiLvF

Top scientific journals reject 'controversial' Danish study on effectiveness of face masks against coronavirus: Report

Some of the world's top scientific journals are being accused of suppressing the results of a study aimed at determining the effectiveness of face masks against the spread of the coronavirus.

"They all said no," said Christian Torp-Pedersen, chief physician at North Zealand Hospital’s research department, who was involved in the study. "We cannot start discussing what they are dissatisfied with because, in that case, we must also explain what the study showed, and we do not want to discuss that until it is published."

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32829745/
Two things.  Firstly, the link I followed stated that the report was still being finalised.  So not a finished study then, which would be reason for rejection by itself.  And secondly, no information is given as to why the study was rejected.  There may be faults in the study, or it may not be the kind of study that the journals approached would normally publish - the article mentions "top journals" and the competition for publication in top scientific journals is incredibly fierce.

Basically, whatever point you thought you were making, you weren't.

sui generis

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4239 on: October 27, 2020, 10:47:47 AM »
I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.
I think you should consider seriously what you are saying.
I did.

Everybody who's ever had the flu should also be jailed for murder.

Wow, where did you get that? Since when do civilian family members have the power to put their other family members in jail? That's crazy

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4240 on: October 27, 2020, 03:37:01 PM »
Turns out the scientists really don’t believe in “science” after all...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/top-scientific-journals-reject-controversial-danish-study-on-effectiveness-of-face-masks-against-coronavirus-report/ar-BB1aiLvF

Top scientific journals reject 'controversial' Danish study on effectiveness of face masks against coronavirus: Report

Some of the world's top scientific journals are being accused of suppressing the results of a study aimed at determining the effectiveness of face masks against the spread of the coronavirus.

"They all said no," said Christian Torp-Pedersen, chief physician at North Zealand Hospital’s research department, who was involved in the study. "We cannot start discussing what they are dissatisfied with because, in that case, we must also explain what the study showed, and we do not want to discuss that until it is published."

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32829745/
Two things.  Firstly, the link I followed stated that the report was still being finalised.  So not a finished study then, which would be reason for rejection by itself.  And secondly, no information is given as to why the study was rejected.  There may be faults in the study, or it may not be the kind of study that the journals approached would normally publish - the article mentions "top journals" and the competition for publication in top scientific journals is incredibly fierce.

Basically, whatever point you thought you were making, you weren't.

Yeah, papers are rejected all the time.     The authors could always put it up in medrxiv if they felt it was really important.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4241 on: October 27, 2020, 06:20:28 PM »
I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.
I think you should consider seriously what you are saying.
I did.

Everybody who's ever had the flu should also be jailed for murder.

Apart from the fact you are comparing apples to pineapples, someone getting a flu shot is taking active measures to NOT get the flu (and there are no asymptomatic flu spreaders).  Someone not wearing a mask (and how well is that person managing social distancing?) is taking steps to be a spreader, since there are asymptomatic spreaders.

Someone lying about exposure and causing a death is morally guilty of at least causing death by negligence.

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4242 on: October 27, 2020, 09:16:57 PM »
Turns out the scientists really don’t believe in “science” after all...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/top-scientific-journals-reject-controversial-danish-study-on-effectiveness-of-face-masks-against-coronavirus-report/ar-BB1aiLvF

Top scientific journals reject 'controversial' Danish study on effectiveness of face masks against coronavirus: Report

Some of the world's top scientific journals are being accused of suppressing the results of a study aimed at determining the effectiveness of face masks against the spread of the coronavirus.

"They all said no," said Christian Torp-Pedersen, chief physician at North Zealand Hospital’s research department, who was involved in the study. "We cannot start discussing what they are dissatisfied with because, in that case, we must also explain what the study showed, and we do not want to discuss that until it is published."

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32829745/
Two things.  Firstly, the link I followed stated that the report was still being finalised.  So not a finished study then, which would be reason for rejection by itself.  And secondly, no information is given as to why the study was rejected.  There may be faults in the study, or it may not be the kind of study that the journals approached would normally publish - the article mentions "top journals" and the competition for publication in top scientific journals is incredibly fierce.

Basically, whatever point you thought you were making, you weren't.

Yeah, papers are rejected all the time.     The authors could always put it up in medrxiv if they felt it was really important.

I agree. Based on the quotes my guess is it showed no difference between mask wearing and no mask in public. Most likely it was rejected due to lack of power. To explain this: If you are trying to find a difference in treatment for a rare event, if you don’t recruit enough people then you may not see a real difference, just because of chance. For example: a trial has 100 people in each trial arm, and 5/100 get covid vs 4/100. Your standard error is 1 for both arms. You can’t say whether or not the two arms are equivalent or there’s a benefit to the 2nd arm. Giving the authors the benefit of the doubt: If the trial in question accrued 6000 participants, and the incidence of covid-19 was 5% within the month-long trial (unlikely since in the US even after a several month period, high-risk populations had a prevalence of only 5%), it would only have a 47% probability of finding a true relative reduction of risk by 20% (5 vs 4%). If the incidence is lower but benefit bigger (say 3 vs 2% for a 33% reduction), the power would be still be only 70%. Still a 30% chance the trial was unlucky and missed a true difference. Ways they could’ve improved the power would’ve been increasing the time studied to increase the prevalence of covid-19 in the placebo group, or increase the trial size. This is all obviously speculation but that is a common reason that randomized trials are rejected, and most vaccine trials are recruiting more than 30,000; this suggests the proper sample size is around that amount.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2020, 09:22:08 PM by Abe »

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4243 on: October 27, 2020, 09:47:06 PM »
Troubling data from Europe:

https://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-emergencies/coronavirus-covid-19/weekly-surveillance-report

Figure 3 shows that although increases in positives has been mostly in the younger age F groups, deaths remain disproportionately higher among older groups and actually increase in relative and absolute numbers with the current surge.
 
Figure 4 shows that the rate of positive covid tests in the influenza-like/acute respiratory illness survey is declining, suggesting that non-covid illnesses are also increasing with the winter approaching. This they are not seeing a drop in other illnesses that was seen in Australia.

Estimated infection fatality rates now hover around 0.5-1% per the WHO (US confirmed case fatality rate is about 2.5%).

Eowyn_MI

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4244 on: October 28, 2020, 05:51:46 AM »
I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.
I think you should consider seriously what you are saying.
I did.

Everybody who's ever had the flu should also be jailed for murder.

Apart from the fact you are comparing apples to pineapples, someone getting a flu shot is taking active measures to NOT get the flu (and there are no asymptomatic flu spreaders).  Someone not wearing a mask (and how well is that person managing social distancing?) is taking steps to be a spreader, since there are asymptomatic spreaders.

Someone lying about exposure and causing a death is morally guilty of at least causing death by negligence.

I agree that Covid-19 is not the same as the flu but where did you get the idea that there are "no asymptomatic flu spreaders"?
At least one study that I found begs to differ:
https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/three-quarters-of-people-with-flu-have-no-symptoms/

Pre-covid era, the culture at my work was that you came in to the office unless if you were completely incapacitated.  Someone with mild symptoms of the flu could have easily spread it around the whole office.  It seems likely that if you traced the chain of infection you could eventually link a death to someone who came in to the office when they were sick.  Are all of those people who came in to work with undiagnosed mild symptoms of an illness morally guilty of causing death(s) by negligence?  If they were not guilty back then, why is covid different now?

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4245 on: October 28, 2020, 08:03:44 AM »
Turns out the scientists really don’t believe in “science” after all...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/top-scientific-journals-reject-controversial-danish-study-on-effectiveness-of-face-masks-against-coronavirus-report/ar-BB1aiLvF

Top scientific journals reject 'controversial' Danish study on effectiveness of face masks against coronavirus: Report

Some of the world's top scientific journals are being accused of suppressing the results of a study aimed at determining the effectiveness of face masks against the spread of the coronavirus.

"They all said no," said Christian Torp-Pedersen, chief physician at North Zealand Hospital’s research department, who was involved in the study. "We cannot start discussing what they are dissatisfied with because, in that case, we must also explain what the study showed, and we do not want to discuss that until it is published."

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32829745/
Two things.  Firstly, the link I followed stated that the report was still being finalised.  So not a finished study then, which would be reason for rejection by itself.  And secondly, no information is given as to why the study was rejected.  There may be faults in the study, or it may not be the kind of study that the journals approached would normally publish - the article mentions "top journals" and the competition for publication in top scientific journals is incredibly fierce.

Basically, whatever point you thought you were making, you weren't.

T-Money is disingenuous and arguing in bad faith.  He is sifting through mounds and mounds of data, ignoring most of it until he finds something that he thinks fits his viewpoint.  He can/should be ignored*.  I haven't read a post of his in months and I don't think I've missed anything of value. 

*Is there a way to hide a member's posts and ignore them?

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4246 on: October 28, 2020, 08:17:00 AM »
Yes, you can in your profile. I have greatly improved my forum experience by ignoring a user.

bigblock440

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4247 on: October 28, 2020, 09:02:52 AM »
I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.
I think you should consider seriously what you are saying.
I did.

Everybody who's ever had the flu should also be jailed for murder.

Hmm.  Claims that coronavirus is the same as the flu . . . I thought we were past this.

Hmm.  Claims that influenza doesn't kill people....I thought we were.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4248 on: October 28, 2020, 09:08:43 AM »
I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.
I think you should consider seriously what you are saying.
I did.

Everybody who's ever had the flu should also be jailed for murder.

Hmm.  Claims that coronavirus is the same as the flu . . . I thought we were past this.

Hmm.  Claims that influenza doesn't kill people....I thought we were.

Nobody made the claim that the influenza doesn't kill people.

You made a direct comparison between the flu and coronavirus.  Coronavirus is significantly more dangerous than the flu (greater transmissibility, more deaths, unknown long term effects).  They're not comparable.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4249 on: October 28, 2020, 09:14:24 AM »
Yes, you can in your profile. I have greatly improved my forum experience by ignoring a user.

Nice.  T-Money$ just made the list. 


 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!