Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 675192 times)

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3950 on: September 18, 2020, 01:30:31 PM »
School started, students partied (28 cases from one party at a university,  not on school property),  we have a bunch of new cases, Ottawa is officially in wave 2.  We are back to no more than 10 for inside gatherings, 25 outside.  Fines for large gatherings.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3951 on: September 18, 2020, 02:10:30 PM »
School started, students partied (28 cases from one party at a university,  not on school property),  we have a bunch of new cases, Ottawa is officially in wave 2.  We are back to no more than 10 for inside gatherings, 25 outside.  Fines for large gatherings.

Heh.  Lemme tell you, Toronto is gunning for your records if recent behaviour I've seen is any indication.  :P

the_fixer

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How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3952 on: September 18, 2020, 03:51:14 PM »
School started, students partied (28 cases from one party at a university,  not on school property),  we have a bunch of new cases, Ottawa is officially in wave 2.  We are back to no more than 10 for inside gatherings, 25 outside.  Fines for large gatherings.

Yesterday CU Boulder had over 100 new positive tests (just yesterday) in the student population. They currently have rooms set aside for quarantine that are already filling up will be interesting to see what they decide to do.

Look like they are having students move to a different dorm to make more quarantine space and doubling up the rooms to 2 quarantine students per room.

www.denverpost.com/2020/09/18/cu-boulder-darley-north-dorm-quarantine-space/amp/

Boulder county is now at a 16% positivity rate


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« Last Edit: September 18, 2020, 04:56:57 PM by the_fixer »

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3953 on: September 18, 2020, 04:01:14 PM »
School started, students partied (28 cases from one party at a university,  not on school property),  we have a bunch of new cases, Ottawa is officially in wave 2.  We are back to no more than 10 for inside gatherings, 25 outside.  Fines for large gatherings.

Heh.  Lemme tell you, Toronto is gunning for your records if recent behaviour I've seen is any indication.  :P

Western isn't in Toronto.

More locally a HS teacher with allergies has Covid as well, since the symptoms are similar it wasn't diagnosed early.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3954 on: September 18, 2020, 08:28:56 PM »
I've spent most of the pandemic deployed on a remote base where we were isolated and there was no real threat. I returned home a couple of weeks ago to the new normal in the US. Frankly it seems like other than everyone wearing masks inside stores and clear plastic shields and signs up, that there's no real change. Traffic is a bit lighter but probably 70-80% of normal. Stores are not as full but plenty of people shopping. Going to church was substantially different with capacity limited and every other pew closed off. I haven't gone back to work yet but will probably be working from home.

In the whole Albuquerque metro area (population 800k or so) the number of new cases is about 25-30/day. Statewide (population of just over 2M) it's about 100 cases a day with about 4 deaths. Frankly the risk to myself and my family feels pretty remote - especially considering our ages and lack of comorbidities.

Restaurants just recently opened for limited indoor dining. My wife and I went to our favorite Italian restaurant (basically the only restaurant we ever go to) and they had about 4-5 tables during lunch on a weekday. We took of our masks while eating and the next table with people was about 10-15 feet away.

In the stores we've gone too it's been pretty much 100% with masks on, albeit a fair number with their noses hanging out or letting them fall down to the point of being useless.

Our kids have been going to school for about a month. They've made some changes but no masks on inside all day, just desks spread apart and less moving around for classes. It's a small private school and so far no one has gotten sick.

I have an aunt and uncle in Washington that may have gotten COVID back in January or February (no testing back then) but that's it. I don't know a single other person who's been sick, certainly no one who has died. I'll keep wearing my masks and our kids are well-trained at this point. But frankly a lot of this feels like theater at this point. Everyone is playing along but for the most part, people aren't that concerned unless they're older.
« Last Edit: September 29, 2020, 01:11:00 PM by Michael in ABQ »

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3955 on: September 23, 2020, 09:28:30 PM »
Well, today we had 12 new cases statewide (out of 5 million people). Many, many postcodes, including most of the eastern half of the city, are literally covid free (no active cases). Yet the whole city is slated to have another 32 days of lockdown and curfew with no travel more than 5km from home.

Here is a map of current active cases (not new cases, any and all active cases). You can see what I mean. You could draw a diagonal line across half the city and exclude nearly all the active cases.

Fucked if I know why all of Melbourne needs to be in hard lockdown. Couldn't you just lock down the 40% of the city where the cases are located? Yes, there will be a few essential services workers who need to "cross the border" but they can be told to not visit anyone outside of their immediate family when they go home. Meanwhile the rest of the city can travel and work freely as long as it's not within the hard lockdown zone.

Excitingly, the Supreme Court of Victoria has ruled that the government cannot claim public interest immunity on advice it received regarding the curfew implementation, so on Monday we will get released information about why exactly the curfew has been put in place (we know the principle behind it - to aid law enforcement - but we don't know why it's still in place for the whole city when case numbers are so low).

I'm genuinely excited to hear what the government's reasoning is. If it's simply that they think people will break the law without a curfew, then that's understandable, but I doubt that would have been it; the Premier has already said that was one of the bases in his press conference. I'm hoping it's something more juicy which reveals more about the government's draconian stance. Let's wait and see :-)

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3956 on: September 26, 2020, 08:57:31 PM »
Premier Andrews has just:

- Lifted curfew four weeks early, effective tomorrow (completely unexpected, but refer to Court challenge above)
- Announced acceleration of certain easing measures
- Scrapped the previous date-based roadmap and instituted a new easing roadmap based on case numbers

All three are welcome developments and things I've been advocating for the past couple of weeks.

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3957 on: September 29, 2020, 09:54:40 AM »
Premier Andrews has just:

- Lifted curfew four weeks early, effective tomorrow (completely unexpected, but refer to Court challenge above)
- Announced acceleration of certain easing measures
- Scrapped the previous date-based roadmap and instituted a new easing roadmap based on case numbers

All three are welcome developments and things I've been advocating for the past couple of weeks.

Has he stopped having pregnant women arrested and citizens ripped from their cars and arrested for having a phone visible on the dashboard at check points?

wenchsenior

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3958 on: September 29, 2020, 11:39:17 AM »
I've spent most of the pandemic deployed on a remote base where we were isolated and there was no real threat. I returned home a couple of weeks ago to the new normal in the US. Frankly it seems like other than everyone wearing masks inside stores and clear plastic shields and signs up, that there's no real change. Traffic is a bit lighter but probably 70-80% of normal. Stores are not as full but plenty of people shopping. Going to church was substantially different with capacity limited and every other pew closed off. I haven't gone back to work yet but will probably be working from home.

In the whole Albuquerque metro area (population 800k or so) the number of new cases is about 25-30/day. Statewide (population of just over 2M) it's about 100 cases a day with about 4 deaths. Frankly the risk to myself and my family feels pretty remote - especially considering our ages and lack of comorbidities.

Restaurants just recently opened for limited indoor dining. My wife and I went to our favorite Italian restaurant (basically the only restaurant we ever go to) and they had about 4-5 tables during lunch on a weekday. We took of our masks while eating and the next table with people was about 10-15 feet away.

In the stores we've gone too it's been pretty much 100% with masks on, albeit a fair number with their noses hanging out or letting them fall down to the point of being useless.

Our kids have been going to school for about a month. They've made some changes but no masks on inside all day, just desks spread apart and less moving around for classes. It's a small private school and so far no one has gotten sick.

I have an aunt and uncle in Washington that may have gotten COVID back in January or February (no testing back then) but that's it. I don't know a single other person who's been sick, certainly no one who has died. I'll keep wearing my masks and our kids are well-trained at this point. But frankly a lot of this feels like theater at this point. Everyone is playing along but for the most part, people aren't that conferenced unless they're older.

That is truly astonishing compared with my much smaller city only 5 hours away in TX.  We've been running at 100-300 new cases a day for weeks and weeks now. 

mm1970

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3959 on: September 29, 2020, 01:16:43 PM »
Quote
In the whole Albuquerque metro area (population 800k or so) the number of new cases is about 25-30/day. Statewide (population of just over 2M) it's about 100 cases a day with about 4 deaths. Frankly the risk to myself and my family feels pretty remote - especially considering our ages and lack of comorbidities.

This is where we need to be to get our kids back to school.  We have the same number of daily cases, but for half of the population.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3960 on: September 29, 2020, 01:18:48 PM »
I've spent most of the pandemic deployed on a remote base where we were isolated and there was no real threat. I returned home a couple of weeks ago to the new normal in the US. Frankly it seems like other than everyone wearing masks inside stores and clear plastic shields and signs up, that there's no real change. Traffic is a bit lighter but probably 70-80% of normal. Stores are not as full but plenty of people shopping. Going to church was substantially different with capacity limited and every other pew closed off. I haven't gone back to work yet but will probably be working from home.

In the whole Albuquerque metro area (population 800k or so) the number of new cases is about 25-30/day. Statewide (population of just over 2M) it's about 100 cases a day with about 4 deaths. Frankly the risk to myself and my family feels pretty remote - especially considering our ages and lack of comorbidities.

Restaurants just recently opened for limited indoor dining. My wife and I went to our favorite Italian restaurant (basically the only restaurant we ever go to) and they had about 4-5 tables during lunch on a weekday. We took of our masks while eating and the next table with people was about 10-15 feet away.

In the stores we've gone too it's been pretty much 100% with masks on, albeit a fair number with their noses hanging out or letting them fall down to the point of being useless.

Our kids have been going to school for about a month. They've made some changes but no masks on inside all day, just desks spread apart and less moving around for classes. It's a small private school and so far no one has gotten sick.

I have an aunt and uncle in Washington that may have gotten COVID back in January or February (no testing back then) but that's it. I don't know a single other person who's been sick, certainly no one who has died. I'll keep wearing my masks and our kids are well-trained at this point. But frankly a lot of this feels like theater at this point. Everyone is playing along but for the most part, people aren't that conferenced unless they're older.

That is truly astonishing compared with my much smaller city only 5 hours away in TX.  We've been running at 100-300 new cases a day for weeks and weeks now.

We're up to about 50 cases per day in the metro area and around 150-200 cases per day statewide now. Still pretty steady at 3-4 deaths per day statewide.


Just as an anecdote I know someone who lives in Ruidoso, NM which is a small mountain resort town in southern New Mexico. We thought about taking a short trip there and were asking my friend about stuff to do. He said that every weekend the town is invaded by Texans, none of whom wear masks. Enforcement is not exactly high on most people's priorities because they depend on those tourist dollars to survive. Overall New Mexico has been fairly restrictive from the beginning. I think we were the second or third state to shut down schools and technically we're supposed to have masks on even if we're outside just walking to the mailbox or going for a jog (very few people are going this far). I still see people sitting alone in their car wearing a mask, or best of all, riding a motorcycle with no helmet but a facemask. Yes, that's your greatest risk, COVID-19 virus particles hitting you at 60 mph, not the fatal head injury that could occur with even a minor accident.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3961 on: September 29, 2020, 02:13:28 PM »
or best of all, riding a motorcycle with no helmet but a facemask. Yes, that's your greatest risk, COVID-19 virus particles hitting you at 60 mph, not the fatal head injury that could occur with even a minor accident.

I've noticed the same thing and can't wrap my head around it.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3962 on: September 29, 2020, 06:05:08 PM »
Premier Andrews has just:

- Lifted curfew four weeks early, effective tomorrow (completely unexpected, but refer to Court challenge above)
- Announced acceleration of certain easing measures
- Scrapped the previous date-based roadmap and instituted a new easing roadmap based on case numbers

All three are welcome developments and things I've been advocating for the past couple of weeks.

Has he stopped having pregnant women arrested and citizens ripped from their cars and arrested for having a phone visible on the dashboard at check points?

No that's just normal life here in Australia. We fine heavily for things that contribute to risk (like having a non-socially distanced picnic - $5000;, or speeding - $390 if between 10km/h - 15km/h over the limit, or using a phone in your car - $390) but if the risk actually eventuates (e.g. you catch Covid - immunity from being fined for telling contact tracers your illegal movements, or hit someone with your car - $390 for failure to give way) there is little or no penalty because you wouldn't want to unfairly punish under-privileged people, would you?

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3963 on: September 29, 2020, 08:03:18 PM »
The police were called to a mental health incident, chased the guy down, ran him over, and stomped on his head which lead to his being put into a medically-induced coma. They were filmed doing this, and one of the officers suspended.

https://twitter.com/LoudermilkPax/status/1305103076945059840

They seem to have softened their approach since then. The assistant commissioner isn't getting up there referring to protesters as "batshit crazy" (if they're anti-lockdown protesters, not if they're BLM protesters)

https://www.instagram.com/p/CEeSPVOBeWA/

and the officers on the street are being more accommodating. The easing restrictions are I think part of this - they've suddenly realised that the enhanced powers they have now won't be forever, the shit they're doing now they won't get away with forever, and they'll have to rely on the public's goodwill once again.

The police are still excessively fining people for bullshit reasons. But they're not being violent.

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3964 on: September 30, 2020, 02:38:04 PM »
or best of all, riding a motorcycle with no helmet but a facemask. Yes, that's your greatest risk, COVID-19 virus particles hitting you at 60 mph, not the fatal head injury that could occur with even a minor accident.

I've noticed the same thing and can't wrap my head around it.

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wenchsenior

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3965 on: September 30, 2020, 03:48:46 PM »
I've spent most of the pandemic deployed on a remote base where we were isolated and there was no real threat. I returned home a couple of weeks ago to the new normal in the US. Frankly it seems like other than everyone wearing masks inside stores and clear plastic shields and signs up, that there's no real change. Traffic is a bit lighter but probably 70-80% of normal. Stores are not as full but plenty of people shopping. Going to church was substantially different with capacity limited and every other pew closed off. I haven't gone back to work yet but will probably be working from home.

In the whole Albuquerque metro area (population 800k or so) the number of new cases is about 25-30/day. Statewide (population of just over 2M) it's about 100 cases a day with about 4 deaths. Frankly the risk to myself and my family feels pretty remote - especially considering our ages and lack of comorbidities.

Restaurants just recently opened for limited indoor dining. My wife and I went to our favorite Italian restaurant (basically the only restaurant we ever go to) and they had about 4-5 tables during lunch on a weekday. We took of our masks while eating and the next table with people was about 10-15 feet away.

In the stores we've gone too it's been pretty much 100% with masks on, albeit a fair number with their noses hanging out or letting them fall down to the point of being useless.

Our kids have been going to school for about a month. They've made some changes but no masks on inside all day, just desks spread apart and less moving around for classes. It's a small private school and so far no one has gotten sick.

I have an aunt and uncle in Washington that may have gotten COVID back in January or February (no testing back then) but that's it. I don't know a single other person who's been sick, certainly no one who has died. I'll keep wearing my masks and our kids are well-trained at this point. But frankly a lot of this feels like theater at this point. Everyone is playing along but for the most part, people aren't that conferenced unless they're older.

That is truly astonishing compared with my much smaller city only 5 hours away in TX.  We've been running at 100-300 new cases a day for weeks and weeks now.

We're up to about 50 cases per day in the metro area and around 150-200 cases per day statewide now. Still pretty steady at 3-4 deaths per day statewide.


Just as an anecdote I know someone who lives in Ruidoso, NM which is a small mountain resort town in southern New Mexico. We thought about taking a short trip there and were asking my friend about stuff to do. He said that every weekend the town is invaded by Texans, none of whom wear masks. Enforcement is not exactly high on most people's priorities because they depend on those tourist dollars to survive. Overall New Mexico has been fairly restrictive from the beginning. I think we were the second or third state to shut down schools and technically we're supposed to have masks on even if we're outside just walking to the mailbox or going for a jog (very few people are going this far). I still see people sitting alone in their car wearing a mask, or best of all, riding a motorcycle with no helmet but a facemask. Yes, that's your greatest risk, COVID-19 virus particles hitting you at 60 mph, not the fatal head injury that could occur with even a minor accident.

:guiltyface: This is literally one of the only trips my husband and were considering over the winter (though we would certainly be wearing masks). Though even after 20 years in Texas, I do not consider myself a "Texan".  So there's that.

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3966 on: September 30, 2020, 04:00:03 PM »
Premier Andrews has just:

- Lifted curfew four weeks early, effective tomorrow (completely unexpected, but refer to Court challenge above)
- Announced acceleration of certain easing measures
- Scrapped the previous date-based roadmap and instituted a new easing roadmap based on case numbers

All three are welcome developments and things I've been advocating for the past couple of weeks.

Has he stopped having pregnant women arrested and citizens ripped from their cars and arrested for having a phone visible on the dashboard at check points?

No that's just normal life here in Australia. We fine heavily for things that contribute to risk (like having a non-socially distanced picnic - $5000;, or speeding - $390 if between 10km/h - 15km/h over the limit, or using a phone in your car - $390) but if the risk actually eventuates (e.g. you catch Covid - immunity from being fined for telling contact tracers your illegal movements, or hit someone with your car - $390 for failure to give way) there is little or no penalty because you wouldn't want to unfairly punish under-privileged people, would you?

Oh enough of that please.

You are smart and privileged enough to know that there are enough racist numpties out there in the in society and in the media that will jump on and dog whistle any hint of “migrant communities” spreading Covid.

That’s why there is a perceived amount of leniency. It called trying to “build a bridge“ to them because those same “migrant community“ people are too scared to come forward and get tested for fear of being torn to shreds if they test positive.

If you got Covid, nothing at all would be mentioned in the press. The sooner you understand how lucky you are not to be under that both racist (and class) scrutiny the better.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3967 on: September 30, 2020, 04:30:49 PM »
Nah, I disagree. There was plenty of flack given to those rich white skiers from Aspen who tested positive to covid during the first wave. The media will jump on any angle, whether it's rich privileged person fails to self-quarantine or poor person spreads virus.

The other thing is this: you can take steps to reduce objective risk even without demonising anyone. This is what the government did when it locked down the NW suburbs and went door knocking. This is what the government is correctly doing now (kinda belated, but still worthwhile) by instituting routine testing for ALL workers in certain high-risk industries. This is what the government should have done a few months ago by switching its messaging from "singles stay at home" to "large family get-togethers are responsible for many deaths: do not gather, even for religious reasons".

Perceived "building a bridge" cannot be used as a reason to have poor objective risk assessment. You can lie in the messaging if you have to ("we're all in this together, it doesn't matter what personal attributes you have, everyone has equal risk of catching this disease"), but you have to get the objective steps right.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3968 on: September 30, 2020, 04:47:12 PM »
or best of all, riding a motorcycle with no helmet but a facemask. Yes, that's your greatest risk, COVID-19 virus particles hitting you at 60 mph, not the fatal head injury that could occur with even a minor accident.

I've noticed the same thing and can't wrap my head around it.

Cannot tell you how many masked kids I see outside riding a bike with parents, with no helmet.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3969 on: September 30, 2020, 04:59:14 PM »
or best of all, riding a motorcycle with no helmet but a facemask. Yes, that's your greatest risk, COVID-19 virus particles hitting you at 60 mph, not the fatal head injury that could occur with even a minor accident.

I've noticed the same thing and can't wrap my head around it.

Cannot tell you how many masked kids I see outside riding a bike with parents, with no helmet.

Ehhh . . . Bicycle helmets are very different.  When I grew up, wearing a bike helmet just wasn't a thing.  Every kid learned to ride a bike without a helmet, and I don't recall brain injury being a scourge of childhood (granted this may be due to brain injury sustained).  Sure I wear a bike helmet now, and force my kid to do so as well - better safe than sorry.  But it's hard to get terribly upset about a child going under 15 kph falling off a bike on grass or the sidewalk.

A motorcycle is on the road, often going 100kph.  The bike itself weighs many hundred lbs.  All of my friends who ride motorbikes have stories of coming off hard and unexpectedly, and several have had hospitalization because of it.

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3970 on: September 30, 2020, 09:34:38 PM »
When I was 8, had a friend at school, his older brother was riding his bike, got hit by a van, wasn’t wearing a helmet.

Kid became a vegetable at 10.

That sort of shit sticks with you for a long time. Always worn a helmet since. Under all circumstances.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3971 on: October 01, 2020, 07:07:59 AM »
When I was 8, had a friend at school, his older brother was riding his bike, got hit by a van, wasn’t wearing a helmet.

Kid became a vegetable at 10.

That sort of shit sticks with you for a long time. Always worn a helmet since. Under all circumstances.

You know that a bike helmet is zero protection against being hit by a van, right?

Please don't get me wrong.  I think wearing a bike helmet is a good idea and (as they're both cheap as well as relatively inconvenient to wear) everyone should wear one . . . but many people have a bizarre idea of what a bike helmet is meant to do.  It's designed to protect your head if you come to a stop on your bike, lean over too far, and smash your head on the curb.  The primary test that is done on bike helmets is dropping them 2 meters.  That's it.

If you're hit a slippery patch on the road and wipe out at speed, it isn't going to do much for you.  If a vehicle hits you, it isn't going to do much for you.  If you panic brake too hard while moving fast and go over the bars, it isn't going to do much for you.  Sure, everyone should wear one because it will probably help a bit.  But it's not going to work miracles.  Expecting a helmet to miraculously cure being hit by a van is crazy . . . and it's distressing how often terrible injuries caused by collisions with vehicles get shrugged off by 'well, he wasn't wearing a helmet'.  As if that makes the outcome of the accident the fault of the cyclist somehow.

Cycling, especially cycling at low speeds (as children do) is a very safe activity.  Your risks of catastrophic head injury is extremely low unless a vehicle is involved.  The best thing to do if you're concerned about collisions with vehicles is to convince more people to ride bikes (even without helmets).  Multiple studies have proven that accidents, injuries, and fatalities go way down when drivers become more used to regularly seeing cyclists on the road.

That's my mini-rant anyway.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3972 on: October 01, 2020, 02:29:58 PM »
It really depends on your use case. I'd have serious problems now if I hadn't worn a helmet when I was a professional cyclist (or at least I believe I'd have serious problems). I probably destroyed 25 or 30 helmets in the last 20 years - every one in crashes just involving me (or occasionally another bike, but never a car). They really are pretty good at reducing the total energy transmitted to your skull/brain, honestly, especially the new MIPS stuff.

That said, Steve's right. They are for you falling over (can easily turn an injury into nothing at all), and as the amount of energy involved increases, they get less and less effective.

It's worth having your kids wear them just to get in the habit, IMO. Most of my bad crashes were *complete* surprises. You can't just decide to be careful that day and be fine - a stick on the trail in a funny spot, or a sudden flat, or whatever will take you down with zero warning.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3973 on: October 01, 2020, 03:03:08 PM »
More kids die from bike injuries than have died of covid.

Kris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3974 on: October 01, 2020, 04:07:54 PM »
More kids die from bike injuries than have died of covid.

Indeed. Kids shouldn't have to wear masks or bike helmets.

Or seat belts. Or ride in car seats.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3975 on: October 01, 2020, 05:10:52 PM »
More kids die from bike injuries than have died of covid.

Indeed. Kids shouldn't have to wear masks or bike helmets.

Or seat belts. Or ride in car seats.

We should probably give all toddlers a fork and knife and turn them loose around the baseboards. No point in using the little plastic outlet covers. Survival of the fittest, amirite?

No point in pool covers or gates, either.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3976 on: October 01, 2020, 06:20:38 PM »
We've got a pit of wolves in the basement and every time my wife gives birth, we throw the child down among them to see if it'll survive or not.  No luck so far, but we're going to have the baddest ass kindergartner on the playground when this finally succeeds.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3977 on: October 01, 2020, 06:36:27 PM »
We've got a pit of wolves in the basement and every time my wife gives birth, we throw the child down among them to see if it'll survive or not.  No luck so far, but we're going to have the baddest ass kindergartner on the playground when this finally succeeds.

And they will grow up to emulate Farley Mowat or Kevin Costner, eh?

HPstache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3978 on: October 01, 2020, 11:05:29 PM »
Trump and Melania have tested positive for COVID per his Twitter

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3979 on: October 01, 2020, 11:12:09 PM »
Trump and Melania have tested positive for COVID per his Twitter

I am delighted to hear this.

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3980 on: October 02, 2020, 04:29:38 AM »
Trump and Melania have tested positive for COVID per his Twitter
His advisor Hick’s was diagnosed Wednesday, the Trumps on Friday. She traveled with him to the debate on Tuesday and started showing symptoms on Wednesday on the flight back from a rally.

The Trumps were not wearing masks at the debate I am not sure about Hick’s or if she was even in the building but I wonder if people at the debate will be quarantined/ tested?

I would assume Hick’s was already infected prior to attending the debate based on the average time to show symptoms.

If Biden contracts it holy shit....


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anotherAlias

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3981 on: October 02, 2020, 04:58:58 AM »
Trump and Melania have tested positive for COVID per his Twitter
His advisor Hick’s was diagnosed Wednesday, the Trumps on Friday. She traveled with him to the debate on Tuesday and started showing symptoms on Wednesday on the flight back from a rally.

The Trumps were not wearing masks at the debate I am not sure about Hick’s or if she was even in the building but I wonder if people at the debate will be quarantined/ tested?

I would assume Hick’s was already infected prior to attending the debate based on the average time to show symptoms.

If Biden contracts it holy shit....


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Back in March I was talking with some co-workers about how shitty our two options were for President.  Covid was just getting started and I joked that with them both being so old, that maybe they both die of Covid and we'd get a do-over.  I would never really wish anyone to die but with this being 2020, it doesn't seem completely out of the realm of possibility.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3982 on: October 02, 2020, 05:44:16 AM »
Trump and Melania have tested positive for COVID per his Twitter
His advisor Hick’s was diagnosed Wednesday, the Trumps on Friday. She traveled with him to the debate on Tuesday and started showing symptoms on Wednesday on the flight back from a rally.

The Trumps were not wearing masks at the debate I am not sure about Hick’s or if she was even in the building but I wonder if people at the debate will be quarantined/ tested?

I would assume Hick’s was already infected prior to attending the debate based on the average time to show symptoms.

If Biden contracts it holy shit....


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Back in March I was talking with some co-workers about how shitty our two options were for President.  Covid was just getting started and I joked that with them both being so old, that maybe they both die of Covid and we'd get a do-over.  I would never really wish anyone to die but with this being 2020, it doesn't seem completely out of the realm of possibility.

Especially as Trump was on the same stage as Biden, yelling and spitting. Ugh.

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3983 on: October 02, 2020, 06:37:47 AM »
Trump and Melania have tested positive for COVID per his Twitter
His advisor Hick’s was diagnosed Wednesday, the Trumps on Friday. She traveled with him to the debate on Tuesday and started showing symptoms on Wednesday on the flight back from a rally.

The Trumps were not wearing masks at the debate I am not sure about Hick’s or if she was even in the building but I wonder if people at the debate will be quarantined/ tested?

I would assume Hick’s was already infected prior to attending the debate based on the average time to show symptoms.

If Biden contracts it holy shit....


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Back in March I was talking with some co-workers about how shitty our two options were for President.  Covid was just getting started and I joked that with them both being so old, that maybe they both die of Covid and we'd get a do-over.  I would never really wish anyone to die but with this being 2020, it doesn't seem completely out of the realm of possibility.

Especially as Trump was on the same stage as Biden, yelling and spitting. Ugh.

Biden chose not to wear a mask too. Must not have been too concerned about the possibility given the situation.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3984 on: October 02, 2020, 07:24:31 AM »
They were socially distanced during the entire debate.  I have no idea how they mingled before and after, but I don't think Trump could have infected Biden, or anyone, during that debate.  I'm sure there was some non-social distancing happening though and everyone's guard was lowered because everyone had been tested.  They didn't count on a trojan rona though. 

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3985 on: October 02, 2020, 09:47:28 AM »
or best of all, riding a motorcycle with no helmet but a facemask. Yes, that's your greatest risk, COVID-19 virus particles hitting you at 60 mph, not the fatal head injury that could occur with even a minor accident.

I've noticed the same thing and can't wrap my head around it.

Cannot tell you how many masked kids I see outside riding a bike with parents, with no helmet.

Ehhh . . . Bicycle helmets are very different.  When I grew up, wearing a bike helmet just wasn't a thing.  Every kid learned to ride a bike without a helmet, and I don't recall brain injury being a scourge of childhood (granted this may be due to brain injury sustained).  Sure I wear a bike helmet now, and force my kid to do so as well - better safe than sorry.  But it's hard to get terribly upset about a child going under 15 kph falling off a bike on grass or the sidewalk.

A motorcycle is on the road, often going 100kph.  The bike itself weighs many hundred lbs.  All of my friends who ride motorbikes have stories of coming off hard and unexpectedly, and several have had hospitalization because of it.

+1 As kids, we all rode our bikes around the neighborhood without helmets. TBH, I never even realized bicycle helmets were a thing, until maybe around the 90s. Among the group of friends I currently ride with, twice a week, I and some others wear helmets, but a couple of guys do not, which is fine with me. A bike helmet isn't anywhere near 100% protection, but it's better than nothing, IMHO. Just like I don't usually ride in a car without a seatbelt, I wouldn't choose to ride a motorcycle or scooter without a helmet, but I know people who do and, to me, that's fine. I won't be the one taking care of them if they crash and get traumatic brain injury. Recently, I've noticed the price of bicycle helmets in the US is getting pretty fucking ridiculous. Seems like all of the helmets our local bike shop carries are close to $100, if not more. A couple of years ago, my family and I spent a month in Christchurch, NZ, which, BTW, was a great city for cycling. Both my daughter and I got used bikes in Christchurch and rode them around the city, every day. In NZ, because they have universal healthcare, which means the government is responsible for taking care of anyone who crashes his bike and gets badly injured, helmets are mandatory, and all cyclists seem to wear them. Our Airbnb host lent me his helmet, but we had to buy one for our 9 year old daughter. I was AMAZED that at a local shopping mall I was able to purchase a child's bicycle helmet for only NZ$5, which was only about US$3.50. It wasn't like a toy helmet, or something. It was an actual bicycle helmet that looked and felt identical to bicycle helmets I see selling in the US, now, for over US$100. I'm guessing that the NZ government maybe subsidizes the cost of bicycle helmets, in order to make them accessible to everyone and to encourage widespread use? Otherwise, how the hell could a shop in Christchurch afford to sell a bike helmet for only NZ$5? Either that, or we're getting ripped off royally in the US, now.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3986 on: October 02, 2020, 10:00:22 AM »
@Shane - you're buying your stuff at a specialty shop in the US. The least expensive kids bicycle helmet at Walmart.com is $10. Wide selection under $15 that sure look like real bike helmets to my admittedly untrained eye.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3987 on: October 02, 2020, 10:02:42 AM »
I was under the impression that helmets have to conform to a minimum safety standard, so the $10 one at walmart is rated sufficiently if the worry is about getting a "cheap helmet".  And yeah, you can get them for $10-15.  Amazon seems to have them from $13, most around $15-20.  I'm sure they also have $100 ones, but they aren't any safer.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3988 on: October 02, 2020, 10:13:24 AM »
This thread is a repository of freezing cold takes.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3989 on: October 02, 2020, 12:32:52 PM »
This thread is a repository of freezing cold takes.

Could you translate this into standard English please?

Zamboni

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3990 on: October 02, 2020, 03:50:50 PM »
I'm hoping, probably in vain, that the Prez getting COVID will increase the public mask wearing among his mouth breathing followers.

Stopped at a gas station/quickie mart over the weekend & get inside to grab a drink (unmustachian, I know, lash me with a wet noodle.) Anyways, all 3 relatively older ladies working in there were maskless. Not wearing their masks improperly, which is rampant here, but no masks anywhere in sight.

Beside the fact that we have a citywide mask mandate for businesses, this is a small indoor space with poor ventilation and a steady flow of hundreds of people per day in and out. At the rate we have the virus spreading in our state, those three ladies are 100% doomed to be infected, but they were oblivious.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3991 on: October 02, 2020, 06:06:59 PM »
@Shane - you're buying your stuff at a specialty shop in the US. The least expensive kids bicycle helmet at Walmart.com is $10. Wide selection under $15 that sure look like real bike helmets to my admittedly untrained eye.

Cool. That's good to know. The helmet I'm using now I bought at Target for, I think, around $30. At the time I was looking, that seemed like the going price for adult helmets at discount stores, in Hawaii, anyway.

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3992 on: October 02, 2020, 06:14:28 PM »
I almost cried when a helmet inspection guy threw my kid's nearly brand new (at the time) $80 helmet in the garbage and said it had already sustained too many impacts. My kids treat helmets like kick balls. This reminds me to go to the big box store and get some new ones again. I'm sure helmet inspection guy would not approve of how they look now either.

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3993 on: October 02, 2020, 06:21:47 PM »
I almost cried when a helmet inspection guy threw my kid's nearly brand new (at the time) $80 helmet in the garbage and said it had already sustained too many impacts. My kids treat helmets like kick balls. This reminds me to go to the big box store and get some new ones again. I'm sure helmet inspection guy would not approve of how they look now either.
Helmet police? Where are you located? Do they pull you over or just go door to door checking helmets?

Inquiring minds want to know


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fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3994 on: October 02, 2020, 06:23:49 PM »
I almost cried when a helmet inspection guy threw my kid's nearly brand new (at the time) $80 helmet in the garbage and said it had already sustained too many impacts. My kids treat helmets like kick balls. This reminds me to go to the big box store and get some new ones again. I'm sure helmet inspection guy would not approve of how they look now either.
Helmet police? Where are you located? Do they pull you over or just go door to door checking helmets?

Inquiring minds want to know


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I took my kids to a bike safety fair. The lockdowns haven't gotten quite that bad here yet.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3995 on: October 03, 2020, 12:44:47 AM »
This thread is a repository of freezing cold takes.

Could you translate this into standard English please?

So a hot take is like an opinion that's an immediate reaction. Like, hot off the presses. A cold take would be an older opinion. I characterize many of the opinions in this thread as "freezing cold" because we're six months in and they've aged like milk. 25 straight weeks of clear excess mortality.

We've seen less and less of it in recent weeks which is good. But in case anyone is still having doubts, let's revisit this post in three months when we finish out the year with and additional 30K-60K deaths.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3996 on: October 03, 2020, 06:59:50 AM »
This thread is a repository of freezing cold takes.

Could you translate this into standard English please?

So a hot take is like an opinion that's an immediate reaction. Like, hot off the presses. A cold take would be an older opinion. I characterize many of the opinions in this thread as "freezing cold" because we're six months in and they've aged like milk. 25 straight weeks of clear excess mortality.

We've seen less and less of it in recent weeks which is good. But in case anyone is still having doubts, let's revisit this post in three months when we finish out the year with and additional 30K-60K deaths.

Thanks for clarifying.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3997 on: October 03, 2020, 07:39:53 AM »
This thread is a repository of freezing cold takes.

Could you translate this into standard English please?

So a hot take is like an opinion that's an immediate reaction. Like, hot off the presses. A cold take would be an older opinion. I characterize many of the opinions in this thread as "freezing cold" because we're six months in and they've aged like milk. 25 straight weeks of clear excess mortality.

We've seen less and less of it in recent weeks which is good. But in case anyone is still having doubts, let's revisit this post in three months when we finish out the year with and additional 30K-60K deaths.

I'm not seeing as many arguments that covid is the same as the flu recently.  :P

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3998 on: October 03, 2020, 10:24:07 AM »
This thread is a repository of freezing cold takes.

Could you translate this into standard English please?

So a hot take is like an opinion that's an immediate reaction. Like, hot off the presses. A cold take would be an older opinion. I characterize many of the opinions in this thread as "freezing cold" because we're six months in and they've aged like milk. 25 straight weeks of clear excess mortality.

We've seen less and less of it in recent weeks which is good. But in case anyone is still having doubts, let's revisit this post in three months when we finish out the year with and additional 30K-60K deaths.

I'm not seeing as many arguments that covid is the same as the flu recently.  :P

Yes. I’m very happy about that. In recent weeks I’ve seen the most discussion happening around school. I’ve largely stayed out of that because I don’t have kids. The government basically gave up on trying to help out with stimulus and extended unemployment and many parents rely on school as babysitting so I understand how brutal this must be on them.

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3999 on: October 03, 2020, 02:43:43 PM »
Keeping schools closed indefinitely would require a fundamental restructuring of our economy/society, really. It's not a realistic option in the US, for the most part.

-W

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!