Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 675197 times)

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3500 on: August 09, 2020, 05:49:02 AM »

Well, I'm not sure alcohol and drugs count as mild vices. Alcohol is probably the most pernicious single force in society. Either that or religion, not sure which.

But we've got plenty of "virtues" that have been heavily proscribed - e.g. exercise - so why aren't vices?

Do people who use safe injecting rooms really need to use them at midnight to prevent a withdrawal? They can't schedule their lives even an iota? Sure, everyone has some difficulty with scheduling things - but tell that to the 99% who have to abide by severe curfews including in relation to most work.

We expect people to go without family contact, any visit to their office or workplace whatsoever (unless an "essential" service) and with very limited exercise but we must give them 100% in-person access to all alcohol?

I don’t disagree with the sentiments on drugs, but given the widespread reported use of illicit substances, you and I are in the minority. We may think people are wrong to use them, but that is not going to stop people using them.

On alcohol, humanity probably falls on a bell curve. There are always going to be those who abuse anything, legal or not.

I will tolerate a lockdown, but if you tell me my one glass of spirits per week is a consequence of a pernicious force tearing at the fabric of society and should be banned then I’ll laugh in your face. I mean, it’s also a little odd you raising it, given you’re the one out at bars all the time...?

Let me enjoy my moment of serenity at the end of a week without finger wagging. Taking that drink away would be enough for this mild mannered drone to join a RDM* protest moment.

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Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3501 on: August 09, 2020, 05:57:18 AM »
I will tolerate a lockdown, but if you tell me my one glass of spirits per week is a consequence of a pernicious force tearing at the fabric of society and should be banned then I’ll laugh in your face.
"Worldwide, 3 million deaths every year result from harmful use of alcohol"
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/alcohol

Covid's not even half that so far this year.

If it's fair to put entire states or countries under house arrest to prevent deaths from covid, it's fair to ban the drinking of alcohol to prevent the deaths it causes.

Alternately, rather than huge restrictions on everyone for an indeterminate period of time, we put in some sensible restrictions which we can live with for years - just as we do for alcohol - and a zillion other things.

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3502 on: August 09, 2020, 06:58:25 AM »
I will tolerate a lockdown, but if you tell me my one glass of spirits per week is a consequence of a pernicious force tearing at the fabric of society and should be banned then I’ll laugh in your face.
"Worldwide, 3 million deaths every year result from harmful use of alcohol"
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/alcohol

Covid's not even half that so far this year.

If it's fair to put entire states or countries under house arrest to prevent deaths from covid, it's fair to ban the drinking of alcohol to prevent the deaths it causes.

Alternately, rather than huge restrictions on everyone for an indeterminate period of time, we put in some sensible restrictions which we can live with for years - just as we do for alcohol - and a zillion other things.
Sorry, while I have alcoholics in my family I do not need to worry about them infecting me with alcoholism.

After seeing drinking devastate several of my family members (including two drinking themselves to death) I am about as anti alcohol as it gets and and think it is a scourge on society but you can not compare a virus that is easily transmitted like Covid to drinking deaths.


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marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3503 on: August 09, 2020, 04:08:34 PM »
I will tolerate a lockdown, but if you tell me my one glass of spirits per week is a consequence of a pernicious force tearing at the fabric of society and should be banned then I’ll laugh in your face.
"Worldwide, 3 million deaths every year result from harmful use of alcohol"
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/alcohol

Covid's not even half that so far this year.


How many times does it have to be said? Deaths are lower because of lockdowns!

The number of deaths would be well in excess of 3 million had the shutdowns and social distancing not been enacted.

You can’t simply just say that “Covid deaths are lower than alcohol deaths so we should open everything up and restrict alcohol”.

You’re a smart person. This should be obvious.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2020, 04:10:06 PM by marty998 »

Davnasty

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3504 on: August 09, 2020, 05:18:54 PM »
I will tolerate a lockdown, but if you tell me my one glass of spirits per week is a consequence of a pernicious force tearing at the fabric of society and should be banned then I’ll laugh in your face.
"Worldwide, 3 million deaths every year result from harmful use of alcohol"
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/alcohol

Covid's not even half that so far this year.

If it's fair to put entire states or countries under house arrest to prevent deaths from covid, it's fair to ban the drinking of alcohol to prevent the deaths it causes.

Alternately, rather than huge restrictions on everyone for an indeterminate period of time, we put in some sensible restrictions which we can live with for years - just as we do for alcohol - and a zillion other things.

Do we need another reason why this is a bad analogy? Probably not but what the heck.

History has shown that alcohol prohibition does not have the desired effect of reducing consumption and alcohol related deaths. Many countries have learned the hard way that you can't reduce societal damage of alcohol by making it illegal and in fact doing so leads to other unintended consequences like creating a black market, funding gangs, and poisonings by unregulated manufacturers. But you can reduce alcohol consumption through other means like education and support for people with addiction, so we focus resources on that instead.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3505 on: August 09, 2020, 06:45:56 PM »
Alcohol isn't the issue per se. It's the free intermingling and buying of alcohol in an unrestricted fashion at liquor stores.

I can't see why in-person attendance to buy alcohol is freely allowed and unrestricted but not, say, buying garden supplies. Or hiking. Not that there's any great importance to buying garden supplies or going hiking. But I have a lot more sanguine attitude to the latter than buying alcohol. No one could say it's a necessity.

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3506 on: August 09, 2020, 07:39:35 PM »
Alcohol isn't the issue per se. It's the free intermingling and buying of alcohol in an unrestricted fashion at liquor stores.

I can't see why in-person attendance to buy alcohol is freely allowed and unrestricted but not, say, buying garden supplies. Or hiking. Not that there's any great importance to buying garden supplies or going hiking. But I have a lot more sanguine attitude to the latter than buying alcohol. No one could say it's a necessity.
Honestly I think they leave the liquor stores (and marijuana shops here) open to placate / medicate people and keep them in order.

In some ways I have done the same for ourselves by buying some treats to keep around the house and have replicated some of the meals we would have out to ease our transition to the new normal.

As they say fat, dumb and happy

Or drunk, stoned and happy LOL


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Davnasty

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3507 on: August 09, 2020, 08:11:51 PM »
Alcohol isn't the issue per se. It's the free intermingling and buying of alcohol in an unrestricted fashion at liquor stores.

I can't see why in-person attendance to buy alcohol is freely allowed and unrestricted but not, say, buying garden supplies. Or hiking. Not that there's any great importance to buying garden supplies or going hiking. But I have a lot more sanguine attitude to the latter than buying alcohol. No one could say it's a necessity.
Honestly I think they leave the liquor stores (and marijuana shops here) open to placate / medicate people and keep them in order.

In some ways I have done the same for ourselves by buying some treats to keep around the house and have replicated some of the meals we would have out to ease our transition to the new normal.

As they say fat, dumb and happy

Or drunk, stoned and happy LOL


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Another thought, if liquor stores were closed in states where that was the only place to buy liquor, I bet there would be a huge increase in the number of people making long drives and crossing state lines.

I don't know how applicable this would be in Australia, but it would definitely impact US states.

What can be sold in grocery stores:


ETA: sorry for quoting with a non-response, I was typing a response but then I thought about this and it was more interesting. I forgot where I was :)
« Last Edit: August 11, 2020, 02:01:00 PM by Davnasty »

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3508 on: August 09, 2020, 08:13:32 PM »

Sorry, while I have alcoholics in my family I do not need to worry about them infecting me with alcoholism.

You do if they're your parents. There seems to be a genetic aspect to alcohol abuse. As well, culturally there's a contagion effect: if everyone around you is a pisshead, it's likely you will be, too.


https://academic.oup.com/alcalc/article/52/6/692/4082179

Of course, alcohol abuse is also a factor in car crashes, domestic violence, and so on. So it's not just the drinker who's miserable or killed. And of course, anything to do with your personal health becomes public business when you have a publicly-funded healthcare system. That's why we have a tobacco tax, for example - mostly tobacco just kills the smoker, but the treatment's expensive, so the taxes are your layby plan for your later emphysema treatment or bypass operation.

Quote
After seeing drinking devastate several of my family members (including two drinking themselves to death) I am about as anti alcohol as it gets and and think it is a scourge on society but you can not compare a virus that is easily transmitted like Covid to drinking deaths.

You're right, it's hard to compare: because alcohol kills more people than this particular virus.

HIV/AIDS deaths worldwide are about the same as covid deaths, by the way. Should we legislate to ban sexual activity outside marriage? Car accidents kill 1.35 million people worldwide each year, should we ban all cars?

There are many deadly problems in the world. We don't put entire states or countries under house arrest for all of them, nor should we for this. We make sensible restrictions which we can live with for years, or even decades, which is what we should do for this.

Covid is a serious problem, and should be dealt with. But the solution of "lock everything down!" is one which creates more problems than it solves. And again, other countries have shown it's not necessary: Taiwan, South Korea and Japan have had few restrictions and few cases. Because they have good systems of testing, treating and tracing. We should give them large sums of cash to send teams over, and do exactly what they tell us to do. We need to set aside the anglosphere cultural arrogance and learn from others.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2020, 01:56:51 AM by Kyle Schuant »

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3509 on: August 09, 2020, 08:19:22 PM »
Alcohol isn't the issue per se. It's the free intermingling and buying of alcohol in an unrestricted fashion at liquor stores.

I can't see why in-person attendance to buy alcohol is freely allowed and unrestricted but not, say, buying garden supplies. Or hiking. Not that there's any great importance to buying garden supplies or going hiking. But I have a lot more sanguine attitude to the latter than buying alcohol. No one could say it's a necessity.
Honestly I think they leave the liquor stores (and marijuana shops here) open to placate / medicate people and keep them in order.

In some ways I have done the same for ourselves by buying some treats to keep around the house and have replicated some of the meals we would have out to ease our transition to the new normal.

As they say fat, dumb and happy

Or drunk, stoned and happy LOL


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Yeah, I get the reasoning.

But it seems like a reversal of priorities or, at best, a perverse incentive.

Regular, law abiding citizens are being forced to weather huge disruptions (e.g. all retail employees being forced to stop work,  by government mandate) and yet alcoholics and drug users are subject to nil restrictions at all.

It's sort of like saying, okay, you well behaved, high functioning retail workers: sacrifice your jobs for 6-10 weeks. We're going to stop you from going into work at a department store and we know you're not going to riot or beat up your wives because of it, so make the sacrifice. Meanwhile, you alcoholics, enjoy not having any restrictions. We wouldn't want you to beat up your wives because you can't go in person to the liquor store to buy liquor. (Even though you can order liquor online which I would have thought would have been the easy solution...)

Davnasty

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3510 on: August 09, 2020, 08:20:48 PM »
Sorry, while I have alcoholics in my family I do not need to worry about them infecting me with alcoholism.
You do if they're your parents.

Genetics are not an infection.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3511 on: August 09, 2020, 08:59:06 PM »
Our liquor stores are open and have the same rules as grocery stores. So, arrows on the floor, cashiers with plexiglass, limited numbers.  Masks are mandated for all indoor places, not just grocery and liquor and beer stores.  Ontario only recently loosened up about wine in grocery stores.

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3512 on: August 09, 2020, 11:47:37 PM »
In unrelated news - ICU usage in Texas, SoCal, Arizona and Florida are improving. No one is at early June levels yet, but the current peak has clearly passed (2 weeks continuous decline). For reference, about 33% of icu patients in Houston are covid-19 admissions (admitted for covid-19, not incidentally found to have it). At the peak about 50% were. They are still >100% normal capacity, but at least that’s downtrending from 130%.

The effect of influenza + covid is concerning and we are bracing for another hit in the fall.

Randomized trials have started on or ahead of schedule, so there’s a good chance of a vaccine by early 2021. I think it’ll be spring before sufficient numbers of people are vaccinated in the US (which will lag the others).

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3513 on: August 09, 2020, 11:50:28 PM »
Why would the US lag the others, when they’ve been busy cornering the market?

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3514 on: August 10, 2020, 12:02:11 AM »
Why would the US lag the others, when they’ve been busy cornering the market?

The most promising of these vaccines and likely first to production is the UK one, which will be preferentially distributed to the UK first. Also, the US population is much larger, so total vaccines needed to get to herd immunity is more. Also, our government is a disaster at public health. Thus, we will lag in effective coverage of the population.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3515 on: August 10, 2020, 12:22:05 AM »
Why would the US lag the others, when they’ve been busy cornering the market?

The most promising of these vaccines and likely first to production is the UK one, which will be preferentially distributed to the UK first. Also, the US population is much larger, so total vaccines needed to get to herd immunity is more. Also, our government is a disaster at public health. Thus, we will lag in effective coverage of the population.

I think whomever discovers the vaccine first will make it whatever the vaccine version of shareware is. Scientists all over the world have been sharing information. Unless it's the USA. The USA would try to profit on it.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3516 on: August 10, 2020, 12:42:51 AM »
It seems that cases here are starting to decline after the introduction of Stage 4, but early days yet. Today was the lowest number of new cases in 12 days (322 new cases, peaked at over 700 last week), and the number of recoveries per day isn't far off the number of new cases. Let's see how things are in 2-3 weeks.

Unless it's the USA. The USA would try to profit on it.

If it's first discovered in the USA they'll charge $2,500 per shot if it isn't through insurance and $25,000 if it is.

gooki

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3517 on: August 10, 2020, 01:07:16 AM »
We were unwilling to learn from success. This, unfortunately, is a trait of the Anglosphere - we know best, can't possibly learn from those foreign buggers. America's the worst example of it, but the UK and Australia do it too.

I think it’s more of a trait of having muppets running these countries.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3518 on: August 10, 2020, 02:04:49 AM »
It seems that cases here are starting to decline after the introduction of Stage 4, but early days yet.
It's 3-4 weeks after the introduction of Stage 3, and 2 weeks after the mandating of masks - it's only one week into stage 4.

The case reductions we're seeing are partly a result of stage 3 and masks, stage 4's not had a chance to show results yet, which we'll see in a week.

The other factor is... If you (for the sake of argument) get 2-3 infections in 10 nursing homes with 100 residents and 50 staff each, then once you infect half the residents and staff (750 people) and isolate them, new infections will slow down. So that's not necessarily a reflection of the brilliance of the measures you've taken, but of running out of victims.

I think it’s more of a trait of having muppets running these countries.
And we elected the muppets, so those muppets are a reflection of us, culturally. Not always a reflection of the best of us, of course, but a reflection of us nonetheless.

Culturally, the anglosphere tends to cultural and technological arrogance: we don't like learning from non-english speaking countries, particularly Asian or African ones. We know from resume tests that people with Asian and African names are less likely to get job interviews, if this applies in people hiring an IT guy or accountant, how much more so in government departments or large corporations adopting entire systems?

Anette

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3519 on: August 10, 2020, 02:06:05 AM »
death rate, per case, shouldn't matter. it should be death rate per capita.

Well, death rate per infection is really what matters.  Case data doesn't give us that.

Death Rate per infection is an illusion as you are not going to be able to know how many infections there are. You mostly get the infected with symptoms and this is one of the reasons why numbers vary  wildy in different countries. Testing i("healthy" people) is at very different levels still.

It also seems hard to tell from the information you get in media what is really happening in other countries(or your own) When I read things about how Germany has handled this so great ...
I am a nurse and where I work we didn't get masks until April ( before that they only had few and locked them all away to be distributed in case!!!)
Grocery, garden and hardware stores were open all the time and you didn't have to wear a mask visiting them until end of April. Numbers of visitors were limited though. Most people I know continued going to work like normal, some were able/supposed to work from home. You were not allowed to get together with people from other households in your free time but at work you obviously were...
Now almost everything seems back to normal Except some ( mostly state organisations/offices)  which seemingly are trying to hold on to the "we are sorry but we can't work due to covid" attitude as long as possible.
Examples: While swimming pools are open, physical therapies , hair dressers and massages are available again I can't write a paper at the university in the beginning of September. It is not happening because of covid! Also I can't get an in person appointment for my daughter at the workers office due to covid
Only telephone conference which you have to wait for an appointment for much longer than usual ( this being the department that gives teenagers advice how to proceed after school, not the unemployment benefits section)

Anyway, here in Germany politicians debated in the beginning of April whether to go back to " normal" life and  just put restrictions on place for the elderly and vulnerable but they came to the conclusion they couldn't do it because that would be discrimination. So it didn't happen although even then appeared the right path.
Also might not have gone over well with other countries all over the world whom we are trading with. Our lockdown in March started right after the US threatened not to import goods from Europe because we are handling Vivid so badly, after all.

former player

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3520 on: August 10, 2020, 02:39:20 AM »
Why would the US lag the others, when they’ve been busy cornering the market?

The most promising of these vaccines and likely first to production is the UK one, which will be preferentially distributed to the UK first. Also, the US population is much larger, so total vaccines needed to get to herd immunity is more. Also, our government is a disaster at public health. Thus, we will lag in effective coverage of the population.

I think whomever discovers the vaccine first will make it whatever the vaccine version of shareware is. Scientists all over the world have been sharing information. Unless it's the USA. The USA would try to profit on it.
As I understand it the problem of delays is not particularly in making the vaccine but in bottling and distributing.  That's why governments are paying for ten of millions of doses to be manufactured and bottled before the outcome of Stage 3 trials is known - it's a big gamble but if the vaccine passes the trial it will pay off in having immediate widespread availability.

The Oxford Group vaccine has been bought by the UK government in sufficient quantities for vaccinations in the UK to start in November 2020 with the rest of the population from January 2021 - provided it works and is safe, of course.  But I think some 2020 availabiity has been bought by the USA.   Astra Zeneca, who are the manufacturing partner for the Oxford group who have developed the vaccine, are manufacturing at cost.

https://www.ovg.ox.ac.uk/news/new-study-reveals-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-produces-strong-immune-response

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3521 on: August 10, 2020, 06:34:53 AM »
Why would the US lag the others, when they’ve been busy cornering the market?

Something like 30% of people in the US have said they won't get the vaccine even if it's free. And it won't be.  Plus we have no way to mass distribute a vaccine like this.  A huge portion of the country has no consistent access to medical care.

The US can't even get people to vaccinate for things that are proven to be safe. This is something new and rushed.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3522 on: August 10, 2020, 06:59:44 AM »
Quote
Plus we have no way to mass distribute a vaccine like this

We do. We’ve done it before during H1N1 flu and that was (fairly) recent.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2020, 07:02:06 AM by MudPuppy »

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3523 on: August 10, 2020, 07:39:43 AM »
Why would the US lag the others, when they’ve been busy cornering the market?

Something like 30% of people in the US have said they won't get the vaccine even if it's free. And it won't be. Plus we have no way to mass distribute a vaccine like this.  A huge portion of the country has no consistent access to medical care.

The US can't even get people to vaccinate for things that are proven to be safe. This is something new and rushed.

What makes you think that a covid vaccine won't be free to people who choose to get it?

I'm a red panda

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3524 on: August 10, 2020, 07:42:07 AM »
Why would the US lag the others, when they’ve been busy cornering the market?

Something like 30% of people in the US have said they won't get the vaccine even if it's free. And it won't be. Plus we have no way to mass distribute a vaccine like this.  A huge portion of the country has no consistent access to medical care.

The US can't even get people to vaccinate for things that are proven to be safe. This is something new and rushed.

What makes you think that a covid vaccine won't be free to people who choose to get it?

Because healthcare in the US is never free.  There is NOTHING in our health system right now that everyone can access free.  Why would we think this will be?  It might be covered by insurance, but that depends on you having insurance.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3525 on: August 10, 2020, 08:34:06 AM »
Why would the US lag the others, when they’ve been busy cornering the market?

Something like 30% of people in the US have said they won't get the vaccine even if it's free. And it won't be. Plus we have no way to mass distribute a vaccine like this.  A huge portion of the country has no consistent access to medical care.

The US can't even get people to vaccinate for things that are proven to be safe. This is something new and rushed.

What makes you think that a covid vaccine won't be free to people who choose to get it?

Because healthcare in the US is never free.  There is NOTHING in our health system right now that everyone can access free.  Why would we think this will be? It might be covered by insurance, but that depends on you having insurance.

Right now, Rite Aid is offering free Covid-19 tests. When they are available, schools and employers will probably offer free vaccinations. People who don't work or attend school will probably be able to get a free covid vaccination at places like Rite Aid, CVS, etc. Obviously, nothing is actually free. Someone will be paying for it, i.e., US taxpayers, but I doubt that any individual in the US will have to pay out of pocket for a Covid-19 vaccination.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3526 on: August 10, 2020, 08:59:11 AM »
We can do the vaccinations if they are available.  We already run flu vaccination clinics at the start of flu season, plus most pharmacies will do walk-in flu vaccination during flu season.  Seniors residences often do them in-house.  You just have to show your health care card.  So the mechanisms are in place, we just need the vaccine.

And yes it will cost our government to pay for it, but it is a lot less expensive than the Covid health care costs.  Just like my former regional health unit subsidizes dog/cat rabies vaccination at the local vets clinics once a year.  It is cost effective.

I'm a red panda

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3527 on: August 10, 2020, 09:10:11 AM »
Why would the US lag the others, when they’ve been busy cornering the market?

Something like 30% of people in the US have said they won't get the vaccine even if it's free. And it won't be. Plus we have no way to mass distribute a vaccine like this.  A huge portion of the country has no consistent access to medical care.

The US can't even get people to vaccinate for things that are proven to be safe. This is something new and rushed.

What makes you think that a covid vaccine won't be free to people who choose to get it?

Because healthcare in the US is never free.  There is NOTHING in our health system right now that everyone can access free.  Why would we think this will be? It might be covered by insurance, but that depends on you having insurance.

Right now, Rite Aid is offering free Covid-19 tests. When they are available, schools and employers will probably offer free vaccinations. People who don't work or attend school will probably be able to get a free covid vaccination at places like Rite Aid, CVS, etc. Obviously, nothing is actually free. Someone will be paying for it, i.e., US taxpayers, but I doubt that any individual in the US will have to pay out of pocket for a Covid-19 vaccination.

I don't live near a rite-aid, so I would not be able to access this free test.  I had to get covid testing and had to pay for a doctor's appt for it. The test was fully covered by my insurance.
My employer offers "free" flu shots- but only if you have their insurance, then they waive the copay. If you have insurance through elsewhere, you can't get a "free" flu shot, you have to pay your copay.  Our grocery stores, CVS, Walgreens, all charge for flu vaccines (though typically insurance covers it- but if you don't have insurance...), none are "free".

Who is covering the rite-aid tests if you don't have insurance? Is rite aid paying for this? Do they have a government grant? 
I have a number of friends who are without insurance due to job loss, ineligibility for an exchange in our state, and inability to pay for COBRA (which is insanity)- who would cover this vaccine for them?

stoaX

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3528 on: August 10, 2020, 11:49:16 AM »
Why would the US lag the others, when they’ve been busy cornering the market?

Something like 30% of people in the US have said they won't get the vaccine even if it's free. And it won't be. Plus we have no way to mass distribute a vaccine like this.  A huge portion of the country has no consistent access to medical care.

The US can't even get people to vaccinate for things that are proven to be safe. This is something new and rushed.

What makes you think that a covid vaccine won't be free to people who choose to get it?

Because healthcare in the US is never free.  There is NOTHING in our health system right now that everyone can access free.  Why would we think this will be? It might be covered by insurance, but that depends on you having insurance.

Right now, Rite Aid is offering free Covid-19 tests. When they are available, schools and employers will probably offer free vaccinations. People who don't work or attend school will probably be able to get a free covid vaccination at places like Rite Aid, CVS, etc. Obviously, nothing is actually free. Someone will be paying for it, i.e., US taxpayers, but I doubt that any individual in the US will have to pay out of pocket for a Covid-19 vaccination.

I don't live near a rite-aid, so I would not be able to access this free test.  I had to get covid testing and had to pay for a doctor's appt for it. The test was fully covered by my insurance.
My employer offers "free" flu shots- but only if you have their insurance, then they waive the copay. If you have insurance through elsewhere, you can't get a "free" flu shot, you have to pay your copay.  Our grocery stores, CVS, Walgreens, all charge for flu vaccines (though typically insurance covers it- but if you don't have insurance...), none are "free".

Who is covering the rite-aid tests if you don't have insurance? Is rite aid paying for this? Do they have a government grant? 
I have a number of friends who are without insurance due to job loss, ineligibility for an exchange in our state, and inability to pay for COBRA (which is insanity)- who would cover this vaccine for them?

My state uses the federal exchange. When I retired I went on an ACA plan since I lost my employer sponsored health insurance (even though I could've continued it on cobra). What state exchange doesn't consider loss of coverage due to termination of employment a qualifying event?  That seems harsh. 

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3529 on: August 10, 2020, 12:07:20 PM »
Why would the US lag the others, when they’ve been busy cornering the market?

Something like 30% of people in the US have said they won't get the vaccine even if it's free. And it won't be. Plus we have no way to mass distribute a vaccine like this.  A huge portion of the country has no consistent access to medical care.

The US can't even get people to vaccinate for things that are proven to be safe. This is something new and rushed.

What makes you think that a covid vaccine won't be free to people who choose to get it?

Because healthcare in the US is never free.  There is NOTHING in our health system right now that everyone can access free.  Why would we think this will be? It might be covered by insurance, but that depends on you having insurance.

Right now, Rite Aid is offering free Covid-19 tests. When they are available, schools and employers will probably offer free vaccinations. People who don't work or attend school will probably be able to get a free covid vaccination at places like Rite Aid, CVS, etc. Obviously, nothing is actually free. Someone will be paying for it, i.e., US taxpayers, but I doubt that any individual in the US will have to pay out of pocket for a Covid-19 vaccination.

I don't live near a rite-aid, so I would not be able to access this free test.  I had to get covid testing and had to pay for a doctor's appt for it. The test was fully covered by my insurance.
My employer offers "free" flu shots- but only if you have their insurance, then they waive the copay. If you have insurance through elsewhere, you can't get a "free" flu shot, you have to pay your copay.  Our grocery stores, CVS, Walgreens, all charge for flu vaccines (though typically insurance covers it- but if you don't have insurance...), none are "free".

Who is covering the rite-aid tests if you don't have insurance? Is rite aid paying for this? Do they have a government grant? 
I have a number of friends who are without insurance due to job loss, ineligibility for an exchange in our state, and inability to pay for COBRA (which is insanity)- who would cover this vaccine for them?

Not sure, but I'm guessing Rite Aid isn't paying for the covid testing itself. Probably, they're getting reimbursed by the government to do the testing. Hopefully, everyone who wants to get the covid vaccine will be able to do so, without regard to whether, or not, they have the resources to pay for it. It seems like making the vaccine available to as many people as possible would be in everyone's best interest.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3530 on: August 10, 2020, 07:05:43 PM »


Death Rate per infection is an illusion as you are not going to be able to know how many infections there are. You mostly get the infected with symptoms and this is one of the reasons why numbers vary  wildy in different countries. Testing i("healthy" people) is at very different levels still.


This is why we do antibody testing to get an idea of infection penetration.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3531 on: August 10, 2020, 07:21:47 PM »
Case numbers in Victoria seem to be stabilising which is good

Fingers crossed life can get back to "normal" (i.e. most people back at work, and day trips allowed once again) sooner rather than later because the economic and mental health cost of the lockdowns has been a grave one.


Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3532 on: August 10, 2020, 09:18:59 PM »
Andrews will keep the lockdowns going, Bloop. He'll be shit-scared of a third surge which would - in his mind - necessitate shutting things down over Christmas. So he'll keep it going till December, open things up then for Christmas shopping and family visits, then there'll be another surge in January with a fresh panic.

His only obstacle will be parliament. But they've proven fairly malleable so far. His Omnibus Bill in May was passed with the help of the Shooters & Fishers party, who got a 12 month extension on hunting licenses, and the Animal Justice Party, whose MP had a son who got a government job the day the bill was passed.

Since they're bribed so easily I imagine he'll not have trouble extending things when the state of emergency 6 month limit comes up September 16th, and in any case he can legally renew states of disaster indefinitely without consulting parliament.

So our only hope really is the fact that the federal funds will slow down after September. I'd expected the federal govt to be open to keeping the tap on for Victoria, but when Andrews went to stage 4 and put 250,000 more people out of work and onto JobKeeper/JobSeeker, he added at least $100 million a week to the federal government's expenses - and he didn't ask them first. This does not encourage them to be generous in future.

When the Commonwealth money slows, public opposition and civil disobedience will increase. It's one thing to be bored, depressed and lonely locked up at home with at least a decent bank balance, it's another thing to be bored, depressed, lonely and locked up and broke.


October will tell.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3533 on: August 10, 2020, 10:06:44 PM »
I'm hoping that the Federal government will signal it's going to turn off the taps which will then put pressure on Andrews to allow us to open up slowly.

I suspect a lot of the "second wave" consisted of huge outbreaks in meat works, NW suburbs (due to large families) and in particular, aged care homes. Those outbreaks not going to be ongoing ones. Meatworks are easily dealt (in hindsight) with via contact tracing and forced reduction of man-hours, like what we've got now. The NW suburbs outbreaks are probably the reason for our strict curfew (which I support, if only because it makes it harder for people to visit extended families and have large social/religious celebrations, all of which are verboten), but the curfew and lockdown can be eased in stages. We can impose geographical lockdowns as needed. And the aged care homes crisis has ravaged all it can ravage. It's running out of steam.

So I think once the numbers  stay down for a while and the funding dries up, we'll face real pressure to re-open, and hopefully we'll do so.

I don't even think we need a "full" re-opening. Just limit it to allowing most workers back onsite; dining out in small numbers; social gatherings of 2 people at a time; and day trips for things like hiking and golf. Essentially stage 2. I could live with stage 2 for the rest of my life and it wouldn't bother me one iota.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3534 on: August 10, 2020, 11:05:21 PM »
There's what we could do, reasonably, and then there's what Andrews is likely to do. Those are two different things.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3535 on: August 11, 2020, 07:28:19 AM »
It seems like making the vaccine available to as many people as possible would be in everyone's best interest.

Having healthcare available to all citizens seems like it would be in everyone's best interest, but we lack that too.

I hope you are right and the vaccine is no cost to all.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3536 on: August 11, 2020, 03:04:48 PM »
How is life in the rest of Australia?  Are things fairly normal outside of Victoria?

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3537 on: August 11, 2020, 06:11:01 PM »
Yes, fairly normal, they're down to 0 or a few cases a day, and don't have a lot of restrictions. Sydney has a few little outbreaks of 10-20 a day which they've got a fairly good grip on, but of course there are people calling for more lockdowns. Most of the states have borders closed to each-other - basically they're trying to keep out Vic and NSW infections. We're a country divided by state borders now.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3538 on: August 11, 2020, 07:14:25 PM »
How is life in the rest of Australia?  Are things fairly normal outside of Victoria?
I live in a jurisdiction that hasn’t had any cases at all for more than a month. We still have limits - in a few days gyms are going to be allowed to be 24/7 but with fewer customers, all shops and restaurants have limits on the numbers but the food courts will be allowed to have some tables soon. We aren’t supposed to travel far (and we can’t cross state borders)...

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3539 on: August 11, 2020, 07:30:42 PM »
As New Zealand has shown, elimination is not possible. Suppression is the only viable strategy. We have to get case numbers low enough so that community transmission is minimal/modest and then open up for the sake of limiting economic damage.

I think we should keep in place indefinite (till a vaccine is found) restrictions on extended family gatherings, weddings, funerals, indoor gatherings and all religious services, to limit community transmission. Low-risk activities involving only a couple or a few people like exercise, hiking, golf, and nuclear family gatherings should be allowed.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3540 on: August 12, 2020, 02:03:16 AM »
How is life in the rest of Australia?  Are things fairly normal outside of Victoria?

Am currently on public transport in Sydney. It’s about 5% as busy as it usually is in peak hour.

Was in the city over the weekend, most pubs were closed on Saturday night.

So no... things are not fairly normal here.

People are taking this seriously. And people are adapting.... I actually don’t see a lot of complaining at all... everyone is keeping as wide a distance as they can from each other.

Habits are being formed I guess.


alsoknownasDean

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3542 on: August 12, 2020, 09:29:19 AM »
How is life in the rest of Australia?  Are things fairly normal outside of Victoria?

Am currently on public transport in Sydney. It’s about 5% as busy as it usually is in peak hour.

Was in the city over the weekend, most pubs were closed on Saturday night.

So no... things are not fairly normal here.

People are taking this seriously. And people are adapting.... I actually don’t see a lot of complaining at all... everyone is keeping as wide a distance as they can from each other.

Habits are being formed I guess.

Are many people wearing masks up there? With the continued lower-level transmission in Sydney, surely there'd be discussion over a mask mandate coming into order up there.

I've taken public transport once since early March. That was because I was moving house and decided to ride my bike from my old home to my new home, and got the bus back.

But I'm sure that things are pretty much normal outside of Victoria and parts of NSW. The odd case keeps popping up in other states, but aside from a few cases in Queensland, most of them are from people in quarantine. Facebook posts from friends in Tasmania and Western Australia seem to indicate that things are fairly normal there.

dougules

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3543 on: August 12, 2020, 01:21:46 PM »
Meanwhile, in the heart of Murica...

https://www.usatoday.com/picture-gallery/news/nation/2020/08/09/2020-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-draws-thousands-no-mask-requirements-covid-19-coronavirus/3331908001/

The irony is that the main demographic at Sturgis is older overweight males.  Exactly the high risk group. 

JGS1980

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3544 on: August 12, 2020, 01:46:58 PM »
who smoke and drink more than the average male of that demographic

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3545 on: August 12, 2020, 03:35:06 PM »
Are many people wearing masks up there? With the continued lower-level transmission in Sydney, surely there'd be discussion over a mask mandate coming into order up there.

All 12 people in my train carriage right now are wearing masks and sitting an appropriate distance apart.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3546 on: August 12, 2020, 10:13:19 PM »
Numbers dropping here in Victoria thank god and it's been only 10 days since the first of the stage 4 restrictions came in and only 7 days since the retail closure kicked in. So I think the drop has been driven by the earlier stage 3 restrictions and hopefully the stage 4 restrictions drive further decreases in coming days.

Then we can start the most important discussion about when to open things up again. Commuting, Retail, dining, construction would be a good start to try to limit the economic damage and get consumer spending back to normal. We do need to keep hospitals, abattoirs, and aged care homes under lock and key for a while though.

Good news too about vaccine trials. If those go to plan then maybe by early next year we can return to normal, or effectively normal (just with bans on large gatherings).

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3547 on: August 12, 2020, 10:28:26 PM »
Department of health released figures stating median age of covid deaths in Australia is 83 with range 33 to 103

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3548 on: August 12, 2020, 11:19:42 PM »

Numbers dropping here in Victoria thank god and it's been only 10 days since the first of the stage 4 restrictions came in and only 7 days since the retail closure kicked in. So I think the drop has been driven by the earlier stage 3 restrictions and hopefully the stage 4 restrictions drive further decreases in coming days.

Yes, stage 4 was punitive merely.

Cases will remain in the triple digits as it's still making its way through aged care, meatworks and warehousing, and their households.

Quote
Then we can start the most important discussion about when to open things up again.

We can start the discussion, but it won't be determined by science, but politics. If it were determined by science we wouldn't have a Stage 4 at all - the CHO didn't want one. If it were determined by science then, with stage 4 only 10 days old and not yet run long enough to show an effect, we would not have the Premier saying,


"What this shows you, not just today's numbers as a single day, but if you look at the trend over the last seven days or so, these stage 4 restrictions — as heartbreaking, as challenging as painful as they are — are working. We would just caution against any Victorian thinking that we aren't in the midst of a real marathon."

Andrews, suffering his target fixation on covid, and struggling with the cognitive dissonance of the ineffectiveness of the punitive lockdowns, will want to keep the screws tightened for as long as politically possible.

In October the federal money taps turns from 200% to 150% flow, and people will start thinking about the future when it goes back to its old 50% flow.

In November people will start wondering about Christmas, and so plans will be made to reopen retail and some restaurants and cinemas and so on then. The decision will only be: do you reopen Dec 1st and have lots of cases from the 15th, or do you reopen the 8th and, because there'll be the same number of people crammed into a shorter timeframe, have LOTS of cases from the 22nd? There will be talk of whether to let people visit extended family etc, but whatever the rules, it will happen, and so there will be a big case surge in January.

If Andrews is still Premier in January then we'll have another lockdown then.

Stop being hopeful, Bloop, you're a lawyer, you know better than this, that what could or should happen is not necessarily what will happen. Be realistic. Andrews has told us: he's going to make us do a marathon. Of course, the marathon is named after the run a guy did where at the end he died...
« Last Edit: August 12, 2020, 11:29:51 PM by Kyle Schuant »

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3549 on: August 12, 2020, 11:34:29 PM »
I'm ever an optimist, which is probably why I'm not as good a lawyer as I could be. But it makes the rest of life much more pleasant.

Stage 4 is largely punitive for those office professionals and department store workers who are now stuck at home for no particular reason, but I actually support the curfew. It prevents unwanted family gatherings and social parties. You're not going to have a dinner party or a birthday party or a party for grandma if everyone has to park their cars 3 streets away and be done by 7.30pm. As far as I'm concerned the curfew can continue till the vaccine is found because it prevents extended gatherings and celebrations which are the backbone of community spread.

As for aged care, I think everyone who could have gotten infected has gotten infected, haven't they? The aged care number isn't important for assessing lockdown anyway, as Andrews has said he'll focus on community transmission.

As for the opening up debate, the fact is that Andrews also took a ridiculously hard stance (against opening up) in May, but within a couple of weeks of very low case numbers, he changed his tune. Politicians are ruled by sentiment. Right now when there are a lot of aged care residents dying, and we've had high case numbers, no one wants to ask the obvious, and crucial, question of when we can stop haemorrhaging money via the lockdowns. But give it two weeks, when unemployment mounts, and money gets tight, and we're having 50 cases a day only, and the tide will start turning.

I am confident that by September 13 we'll be back down to level 3, if not level 2.

As for what happens over Christmas, the best case scenario would be heavy enforcement of, and fines/jail time for, religious services and extended family gatherings to prevent a "third wave". But I agree with you that it's going to be a tough political sell. Hopefully people remember the importance of keeping to nuclear families and couples ONLY. If not, maybe we'll be able to escape Victoria for a little period and let the rest of the state lock down in January while we holiday in South Australia, or something. Because I agree that Christmas is going to be a real danger.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!