Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 675283 times)

anni

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3350 on: August 03, 2020, 07:06:24 PM »
I miss going to the climbing gym but not enough to go back. It was the only "exercise" routine that ever got me totally hooked. The gym is open again, but it seems like one of the grossest places I could go right now, what with everyone touching the EXACT same surfaces, and all the ~fluids~ that come out (I've touched other people's blood on the walls before...). You have to wear a mask to go, but even then, I just really don't want to risk getting sick (or getting anyone else sick). I can appreciate that economies are in dire straits right now and I feel exceptionally lucky to still have my job and some stability, but I really wish things would stay closed and that unemployed people could keep getting public support as needed (from taxpayers like me) until a vaccine or cure is available. Maybe I haven't reached Peak Frustration yet or I'm too spoiled by my current lockdown life.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3351 on: August 03, 2020, 07:32:49 PM »
"The very places where we are seeing outbreaks, the very places where we are seeing transmission, are the places that would remain open if we went to a stage four. We shouldn't pretend that a really broad shutdown of industry will address where we are seeing the transmission."
- Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton, July 25th

the state went to stage 4 a week later. It's not just about the expert advice, unfortunately.


Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3352 on: August 03, 2020, 08:03:47 PM »
I've lost 5 kilograms during covid and feel a lot better for it. It's mainly through increased daily walking, eating more healthily and concentrating on exercise.

Meanwhile, the Victorian government has announced increased fines for isolation breaches. Which I'm happy with.

But I was just thinking that fines aren't likely to prove a deterrent for a lot of people who don't have the money to pay them (and who can never be forced to pay them in any event). Not paying a fine here in Victoria is not a criminal offence and does not lead to any further sanctions, besides debt recovery proceedings, which still don't have any effect on someone who has no assets. There are lots of stories about people with no assets driving on toll roads and racking up tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in toll fees that remain unpaid.

I think there should be a short jail sentence, say 12 hours, for anyone caught flouting an isolation order. To clarify, these are people who've tested positive and still are outside (or inside but with non-household people present) without a permitted excuse. These are the people who are most dangerous and who are spreading the virus. Jail would be a much better deterrent than a fine that's never going to be paid. We now have pandemic leave for everyone so there's no excuse to not stay home for 2 weeks after a positive test result.

I've never understood why the fine for speeding is the same as that for speeding and getting into an accident. You have to take into account the objective seriousness of the consequences of an offence. Getting into an accident should attract a much higher fine than speeding alone. The same principle applies here.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3353 on: August 03, 2020, 08:24:42 PM »
I've lost 5 kilograms during covid and feel a lot better for it. It's mainly through increased daily walking, eating more healthily and concentrating on exercise.

Meanwhile, the Victorian government has announced increased fines for isolation breaches. Which I'm happy with.

But I was just thinking that fines aren't likely to prove a deterrent for a lot of people who don't have the money to pay them (and who can never be forced to pay them in any event). Not paying a fine here in Victoria is not a criminal offence and does not lead to any further sanctions, besides debt recovery proceedings, which still don't have any effect on someone who has no assets. There are lots of stories about people with no assets driving on toll roads and racking up tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in toll fees that remain unpaid.

I think there should be a short jail sentence, say 12 hours, for anyone caught flouting an isolation order. To clarify, these are people who've tested positive and still are outside (or inside but with non-household people present) without a permitted excuse. These are the people who are most dangerous and who are spreading the virus. Jail would be a much better deterrent than a fine that's never going to be paid. We now have pandemic leave for everyone so there's no excuse to not stay home for 2 weeks after a positive test result.

I've never understood why the fine for speeding is the same as that for speeding and getting into an accident. You have to take into account the objective seriousness of the consequences of an offence. Getting into an accident should attract a much higher fine than speeding alone. The same principle applies here.

This is cute. You have zero credibility, given your history of bragging about flouting the rules. It's funny that you want to crack down on other people doing the same thing.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3354 on: August 03, 2020, 08:48:46 PM »
Meanwhile, the Victorian government has announced increased fines for isolation breaches. Which I'm happy with.
On awaiting a test, or testing positive, you must not leave your house for any reason, on pain of a large fine. Of course, if you don't get tested then you don't suffer this restriction. So people will not get tested. They'll still be infectious, of course.

I don't think this was the outcome the government was hoping for. This is why parliament must remain sitting: we all need someone to point out the fucking obvious to us from time to time.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3355 on: August 03, 2020, 09:19:27 PM »
well some good news.  Cases and positivity rate are dropping pretty fast even with testing now surpassing 1M/day and rising.  Looks like this curve should be headed downward fast.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3356 on: August 03, 2020, 09:34:39 PM »
I've lost 5 kilograms during covid and feel a lot better for it. It's mainly through increased daily walking, eating more healthily and concentrating on exercise.

Meanwhile, the Victorian government has announced increased fines for isolation breaches. Which I'm happy with.

But I was just thinking that fines aren't likely to prove a deterrent for a lot of people who don't have the money to pay them (and who can never be forced to pay them in any event). Not paying a fine here in Victoria is not a criminal offence and does not lead to any further sanctions, besides debt recovery proceedings, which still don't have any effect on someone who has no assets. There are lots of stories about people with no assets driving on toll roads and racking up tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in toll fees that remain unpaid.

I think there should be a short jail sentence, say 12 hours, for anyone caught flouting an isolation order. To clarify, these are people who've tested positive and still are outside (or inside but with non-household people present) without a permitted excuse. These are the people who are most dangerous and who are spreading the virus. Jail would be a much better deterrent than a fine that's never going to be paid. We now have pandemic leave for everyone so there's no excuse to not stay home for 2 weeks after a positive test result.

I've never understood why the fine for speeding is the same as that for speeding and getting into an accident. You have to take into account the objective seriousness of the consequences of an offence. Getting into an accident should attract a much higher fine than speeding alone. The same principle applies here.

This is cute. You have zero credibility, given your history of bragging about flouting the rules. It's funny that you want to crack down on other people doing the same thing.

We've had this discussion a million times. The rules I was "flouting" (although I wasn't even breaching the rules) were different because I had never tested positive, I had never shown symptoms, I wasn't required to lockdown, I wasn't required to not socialise [back then socialising was permitted, even without masks] and I objectively lacked the risk factors that these high-risk carriers have.

I get what you're saying - why should I get to "flout"** rules when others don't - and the answer is that I have low risk factors and for that reason I have an exemption from a lot of the rules. Don't blame me for not being an abattoir worker who lives in northwest Melbourne with a large extended family.

**For example, I'm a sole trader working alone with no public contact. Therefore I get to still work on-site (in my office). I get to still drive past curfew if I want to do late night work, which I often have to do. No doubt you will call this "flouting" the rules, but it's actually a specific exemption within the rules, which I'm navigating well. The exemptions were made for low-risk sole traders like me. If you don't like, take it up with the government.

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cerat0n1a

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3358 on: August 04, 2020, 12:27:08 AM »
Most rich countries already have a fertility rate well below replacement level.

Not just rich countries. More than half of the world's countries (countries where more than half of the world's population live, too) have birth rates below replacement rates, including places like Bangladesh & Vietnam, and places like Iran where you might think the religious influence would keep the birth rate high. Once people get out of absolute poverty, seems like they choose to have fewer children without any need for draconian policies.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3359 on: August 04, 2020, 12:49:13 AM »
Most rich countries already have a fertility rate well below replacement level.

Not just rich countries. More than half of the world's countries (countries where more than half of the world's population live, too) have birth rates below replacement rates, including places like Bangladesh & Vietnam, and places like Iran where you might think the religious influence would keep the birth rate high. Once people get out of absolute poverty, seems like they choose to have fewer children without any need for draconian policies.

That sounds like good news.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3360 on: August 04, 2020, 01:58:48 AM »
well some good news.  Cases and positivity rate are dropping pretty fast even with testing now surpassing 1M/day and rising.  Looks like this curve should be headed downward fast.

Do I need to remind you of how focused you have been on hospitalistion and death rates? Apparently, the cases and positivity rates were inaccurate...... unless the hospitalisation/death rates are no longer supporting your narrative. Ffs.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3361 on: August 04, 2020, 02:00:10 AM »
I've lost 5 kilograms during covid and feel a lot better for it. It's mainly through increased daily walking, eating more healthily and concentrating on exercise.

Meanwhile, the Victorian government has announced increased fines for isolation breaches. Which I'm happy with.

But I was just thinking that fines aren't likely to prove a deterrent for a lot of people who don't have the money to pay them (and who can never be forced to pay them in any event). Not paying a fine here in Victoria is not a criminal offence and does not lead to any further sanctions, besides debt recovery proceedings, which still don't have any effect on someone who has no assets. There are lots of stories about people with no assets driving on toll roads and racking up tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in toll fees that remain unpaid.

I think there should be a short jail sentence, say 12 hours, for anyone caught flouting an isolation order. To clarify, these are people who've tested positive and still are outside (or inside but with non-household people present) without a permitted excuse. These are the people who are most dangerous and who are spreading the virus. Jail would be a much better deterrent than a fine that's never going to be paid. We now have pandemic leave for everyone so there's no excuse to not stay home for 2 weeks after a positive test result.

I've never understood why the fine for speeding is the same as that for speeding and getting into an accident. You have to take into account the objective seriousness of the consequences of an offence. Getting into an accident should attract a much higher fine than speeding alone. The same principle applies here.

This is cute. You have zero credibility, given your history of bragging about flouting the rules. It's funny that you want to crack down on other people doing the same thing.

We've had this discussion a million times. The rules I was "flouting" (although I wasn't even breaching the rules) were different because I had never tested positive, I had never shown symptoms, I wasn't required to lockdown, I wasn't required to not socialise [back then socialising was permitted, even without masks] and I objectively lacked the risk factors that these high-risk carriers have.

I get what you're saying - why should I get to "flout"** rules when others don't - and the answer is that I have low risk factors and for that reason I have an exemption from a lot of the rules. Don't blame me for not being an abattoir worker who lives in northwest Melbourne with a large extended family.

**For example, I'm a sole trader working alone with no public contact. Therefore I get to still work on-site (in my office). I get to still drive past curfew if I want to do late night work, which I often have to do. No doubt you will call this "flouting" the rules, but it's actually a specific exemption within the rules, which I'm navigating well. The exemptions were made for low-risk sole traders like me. If you don't like, take it up with the government.


Waaah! I'm different! I'm a special case! How dare you apply standards to meeeeee that you apply to other people! Waaaaaaaaah!

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3362 on: August 04, 2020, 05:20:31 AM »
Most rich countries already have a fertility rate well below replacement level.

Not just rich countries. More than half of the world's countries (countries where more than half of the world's population live, too) have birth rates below replacement rates, including places like Bangladesh & Vietnam, and places like Iran where you might think the religious influence would keep the birth rate high. Once people get out of absolute poverty, seems like they choose to have fewer children without any need for draconian policies.

That sounds like good news.

I didn't believe this so I went and looked it up. It appears so - Bangladeshi fertility rate is currently estimated to be 2.05, Vietnam 2.06, Iran hovering at about 2.

No surprise the top 20 fertility rates are African countries, who also account for the majority of the "youngest" countries with the median woman coming into her peak fertility years. Africa as a whole is still above 4.0... it's a useful metric for development/progress.

The "oldest" countries are Japan, Italy, Germany, Greece, Portugal and Spain, with median ages all over 45.


NorthernBlitz

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3363 on: August 04, 2020, 06:34:08 AM »
Diet is of primary importance if your only goal is to lose weight.  Exercise plays a bigger part than many realize though.  And as madgeylou pointed out, losing weight doesn't mean you're healthy.  If your goal is to be a healthy human being you should exercise frequently and make good eating choices.

I agree with this and won't quibble about the numbers for running marathons (2/3 of a pound of fat vs. 1 pound of fat).

I agree that reducing fat isn't the only thing that people should be doing to get healthy, but given the obesity rate in the US I think it's probably a more pressing concern. I also think that losing weight will end up increasing people's exercise because being having too much fat generally makes it less appealing to do things like go run around / ride a bike with the kids (or go to the gym and work out when that becomes possible again).

And when people exercise for the purpose of losing weight, it's super disheartening when they don't lose weight. This is probably because they aren't concentrating on what they're eating because the marketing we see is usually about some new fad exercise equipment that's going to get you in shape.

When I was in grad school, I started to run 5 km / workday on the university track. But then, I'd get a Blizzard at DQ 50% of the time when waiting to take the commuter train home to treat myself for the workouts I was doing. This was stupid and somehow I was surprised when I wasn't losing weight.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2020, 06:42:08 AM by NorthernBlitz »

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3364 on: August 04, 2020, 07:47:58 AM »
Diet is of primary importance if your only goal is to lose weight.  Exercise plays a bigger part than many realize though.  And as madgeylou pointed out, losing weight doesn't mean you're healthy.  If your goal is to be a healthy human being you should exercise frequently and make good eating choices.

I agree with this and won't quibble about the numbers for running marathons (2/3 of a pound of fat vs. 1 pound of fat).

I agree that reducing fat isn't the only thing that people should be doing to get healthy, but given the obesity rate in the US I think it's probably a more pressing concern. I also think that losing weight will end up increasing people's exercise because being having too much fat generally makes it less appealing to do things like go run around / ride a bike with the kids (or go to the gym and work out when that becomes possible again).

And when people exercise for the purpose of losing weight, it's super disheartening when they don't lose weight. This is probably because they aren't concentrating on what they're eating because the marketing we see is usually about some new fad exercise equipment that's going to get you in shape.

When I was in grad school, I started to run 5 km / workday on the university track. But then, I'd get a Blizzard at DQ 50% of the time when waiting to take the commuter train home to treat myself for the workouts I was doing. This was stupid and somehow I was surprised when I wasn't losing weight.

I largely agree with your post here.

From a purely aesthetic standpoint, people typically don't want to be frail and weakly . . . they want to look less jiggly.  When sedentary people start to train they usually start to change their body composition (putting on muscle while losing fat) which reduces waist size, tightens up the stuff that jiggles, and increases the amount they can eat each day without adding fat to their frame.  So, you can easily be working really hard and getting discouraged that you don't see pounds drop off at the scale . . . even though you're getting healthier and moving towards looking better at the same time.

That's why my recommendation for people is to record and track athletic performance rather than monitor weight loss.  If you used to take 10 minutes to run a mile, and now you can do it in 9 or 8, you have significantly improved your fitness and overall health.  In my experience, this type of measurement is much more consistent that a measure of weight (which can fluctuate due to salt intake, water retention, fiber eaten in the past few days, etc.).  The beauty of doing this is that you will improve for a while but eventually plateau in your athletic progression if you stick with a poor diet . . . but by that time you're already living a healthier lifestyle, and the dietary changes can be introduced in a more gradual and measured way with a clear performance goal rather than a (typically arbitrary) weight goal that is subject to many confounding factors.

Another benefit to pushing exercise is that for the vast majority of people, exercise is more fun.  When you diet and limit calories*, your body usually punishes you and makes you feel like shit**.  You feel like shit because you are literally starving yourself.  When you move and exercise, positive mood-altering endorphins are released into your body that make you feel better about what you're doing.  When properly scheduled as part of a routine, you can use this mood enhancing, mildly addictive trait of exercise to create and enforce this beneficial habit.


* Not talking about avoiding cake, cookies, brownies, sugary drinks, potato chips, donuts, candies, ice cream, etc. - if you're not already limiting these pretty hard and are trying to lose weight then you're an idiot.  Cutting this sort of poison out of your life usually makes you feel better.  I'm talking about people who are getting 90 - 95% of their calories from real food and then try cutting 250 - 500 cals out each day.

** The exception being if you go really, really far overboard - most people who are anorexic starve themselves for so long that their bodies give up on releasing ghrelins to make them feel hungry and just pump out seratonin to try to make what it sees as your last few starving days on Earth more tolerable.  But very few diets I'm aware of recommend this level and type of extremely dangerous eating behaviour.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3365 on: August 04, 2020, 07:50:45 AM »
I wonder if people who don't like the "lose weight" mantra would be content if the health advice changed from "try to lose weight" to "try to improve your mile time and eat more healthily"?

Would that be a panacea?

PDXTabs

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3366 on: August 04, 2020, 08:18:43 AM »
WRT exercise vs diet, it's entirely true that you can't outrun a bad diet. It's also true that exercise is good for you. Additionally working out during a fasted state can enhance weight loss, muscle gains, and reduce hunger. Likewise increased muscle mass increases your basal metabolic rate.

So, really you need both.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2020, 08:36:47 AM by PDXTabs »

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3367 on: August 04, 2020, 08:45:40 AM »
That's why my recommendation for people is to record and track athletic performance rather than monitor weight loss.  If you used to take 10 minutes to run a mile, and now you can do it in 9 or 8, you have significantly improved your fitness and overall health. 
The reasoning is sound, and is something I pursue with people who come to my gym. Unfortunately, they are a minority. For the general population the question is not what speed they run a mile at, nor even whether they are physically capable of running a mile, but whether they are willing and able to walk a mile in one go.

The general population is in very bad shape, with most over 35 or so having joint problems, and those of all ages being very weak and with poor cardiovascular fitness.

For them, the boring old government recommendations of "150 to 300 minutes of moderate physical activity weekly... 3 cups of vegetables daily..." etc are most appropriate.

Essentially, if own a pair of walking shoes or a bicycle and use them at least three times a week, you are probably in the top quartile of health and fitness in the general population.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3368 on: August 04, 2020, 09:26:46 AM »
That's why my recommendation for people is to record and track athletic performance rather than monitor weight loss.  If you used to take 10 minutes to run a mile, and now you can do it in 9 or 8, you have significantly improved your fitness and overall health. 
The reasoning is sound, and is something I pursue with people who come to my gym. Unfortunately, they are a minority. For the general population the question is not what speed they run a mile at, nor even whether they are physically capable of running a mile, but whether they are willing and able to walk a mile in one go.

The general population is in very bad shape, with most over 35 or so having joint problems, and those of all ages being very weak and with poor cardiovascular fitness.

For them, the boring old government recommendations of "150 to 300 minutes of moderate physical activity weekly... 3 cups of vegetables daily..." etc are most appropriate.

Essentially, if own a pair of walking shoes or a bicycle and use them at least three times a week, you are probably in the top quartile of health and fitness in the general population.

Really? Everyone I meet on a day to day basis (before lockdown, I mean) seems pretty damn fit to me. Late 20s/early 30s crowd, always getting into yoga, hot yoga, meditation, running, biking, gym, whatever. And all those exercise dates during lockdown!

I actually was a slob in my late 20s but since starting my fitness regimen in my early 30s I've lost a few kilos and have never felt better.

Now down to 99kg. Target weight is 90kg. I'm pretty solidly built and 185cm so I think I wear the weight well but I definitely need to get one of those fat-meters and assiduously measure it. Aiming for 15%. Is there any easy way to measure body fat besides the fat-meters?

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3369 on: August 04, 2020, 10:03:27 AM »

Do I need to remind you of how focused you have been on hospitalistion and death rates? Apparently, the cases and positivity rates were inaccurate...... unless the hospitalisation/death rates are no longer supporting your narrative. Ffs.

Not sure what you mean by narrative.  Just reporting the numbers.  I'm not being emotional about it.  Hospitalizations and deaths are both also decreasing.  This current "wave" appears to be starting a sharp decline, this is welcome news.  Case data, positivity rates, hospitalization data, and death data are all confirming this.  The really good news is we are continuing to ramp up testing (now past 1 M tests/day), and cases are still dropping.



« Last Edit: August 04, 2020, 10:07:03 AM by HBFIRE »

Barbaebigode

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3370 on: August 04, 2020, 10:04:50 AM »
That's why my recommendation for people is to record and track athletic performance rather than monitor weight loss.  If you used to take 10 minutes to run a mile, and now you can do it in 9 or 8, you have significantly improved your fitness and overall health. 
The reasoning is sound, and is something I pursue with people who come to my gym. Unfortunately, they are a minority. For the general population the question is not what speed they run a mile at, nor even whether they are physically capable of running a mile, but whether they are willing and able to walk a mile in one go.

The general population is in very bad shape, with most over 35 or so having joint problems, and those of all ages being very weak and with poor cardiovascular fitness.

For them, the boring old government recommendations of "150 to 300 minutes of moderate physical activity weekly... 3 cups of vegetables daily..." etc are most appropriate.

Essentially, if own a pair of walking shoes or a bicycle and use them at least three times a week, you are probably in the top quartile of health and fitness in the general population.

Really? Everyone I meet on a day to day basis (before lockdown, I mean) seems pretty damn fit to me. Late 20s/early 30s crowd, always getting into yoga, hot yoga, meditation, running, biking, gym, whatever. And all those exercise dates during lockdown!

I actually was a slob in my late 20s but since starting my fitness regimen in my early 30s I've lost a few kilos and have never felt better.

Now down to 99kg. Target weight is 90kg. I'm pretty solidly built and 185cm so I think I wear the weight well but I definitely need to get one of those fat-meters and assiduously measure it. Aiming for 15%. Is there any easy way to measure body fat besides the fat-meters?

you can compare yourself with people that have a know body fat %. There are photos for that on the internet. Of course it only works if you don't have a skewed self image.

bloodaxe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3371 on: August 04, 2020, 10:09:59 AM »
In my opinion, the obesity health problem in the US is mostly from people living in car-centric cities.

If everyone got out of their mother lovin' cars and onto a bike or walked we would drop a lot of weight.

A marathon burns ~ 2,600 calories.


Didn't read the articles, but this is misleading. Maybe a pro level person who weights 120 lbs and has 5% body fat burns this amount.

But I burn ~2500 calories when going on a 13 mile run. And I'm 6 ft 175 lbs.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3372 on: August 04, 2020, 10:21:15 AM »
In my opinion, the obesity health problem in the US is mostly from people living in car-centric cities.

If everyone got out of their mother lovin' cars and onto a bike or walked we would drop a lot of weight.

A marathon burns ~ 2,600 calories.


Didn't read the articles, but this is misleading. Maybe a pro level person who weights 120 lbs and has 5% body fat burns this amount.

But I burn ~2500 calories when going on a 13 mile run. And I'm 6 ft 175 lbs.

That figure is based on an average runner.  I think your caloric estimator is probably off, as that figure seems much too high unless your heart rate is on the high side.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2020, 10:23:21 AM by HBFIRE »

mm1970

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3373 on: August 04, 2020, 10:25:35 AM »
Quote
Thanks for this post. Made one small correction because obesity in and of itself is not actually a health problem.

This is true.

mm1970

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3374 on: August 04, 2020, 10:33:43 AM »
That's why my recommendation for people is to record and track athletic performance rather than monitor weight loss.  If you used to take 10 minutes to run a mile, and now you can do it in 9 or 8, you have significantly improved your fitness and overall health. 
The reasoning is sound, and is something I pursue with people who come to my gym. Unfortunately, they are a minority. For the general population the question is not what speed they run a mile at, nor even whether they are physically capable of running a mile, but whether they are willing and able to walk a mile in one go.

The general population is in very bad shape, with most over 35 or so having joint problems, and those of all ages being very weak and with poor cardiovascular fitness.

For them, the boring old government recommendations of "150 to 300 minutes of moderate physical activity weekly... 3 cups of vegetables daily..." etc are most appropriate.

Essentially, if own a pair of walking shoes or a bicycle and use them at least three times a week, you are probably in the top quartile of health and fitness in the general population.

I wanted to address this.  What is wrong with boring?   What's wrong with being over 35?  I mean, most people get there eventually.

Look, I'm pretty type-A, and it doesn't always work out for me.  I exercise for me - running, lifting, walking, etc...but I am coming up against age limitations (I'm 50). (Overwork results in Achilles, hip, sciatica, shoulder injuries).

It's fun to work on bringing down my run times...but also injury inducing at my age.  I can do speed work, and it's nice to see my 400m time go down, or my mile time to go down, but it's REALLY hard on my body to try and get my half marathon time to get any lower.  Also, it's not nearly as much fun as just going out and running a long distance and enjoying the scenery.

At some point, MOST people have to come to terms with this.  If you are a super duper competitive person and your lifetime goal is to do a sub-2 half marathon (or sub 1:30), great - but you might want to learn to really enjoy the PROCESS more than the result.  Because results will eventually fade.

Maybe I'm just boring (I know I am), but I'm perfectly happy eating my boring diet with lots of fruits and vegetables, seeing my boring Garmin weekly results of 200-350 minutes of exercise a week, and seeing my amount of weight lifted go up really slowly...enough to get stronger without injury (currently nursing a glute injury because I was careless when returning my 35# KB to it's home during yesterday's workout.)

TLDR; don't diss boring.  Constantly striving for faster/stronger/better is fun, but it really sucks if you get injured or older and haven't learned to enjoy exercise for what it is, without the "thrill".

StashingAway

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3375 on: August 04, 2020, 10:48:33 AM »
That's why my recommendation for people is to record and track athletic performance rather than monitor weight loss.  If you used to take 10 minutes to run a mile, and now you can do it in 9 or 8, you have significantly improved your fitness and overall health. 
The general population is in very bad shape, with most over 35 or so having joint problems, and those of all ages being very weak and with poor cardiovascular fitness.

For them, the boring old government recommendations of "150 to 300 minutes of moderate physical activity weekly... 3 cups of vegetables daily..." etc are most appropriate.


I wanted to address this.  What is wrong with boring?   What's wrong with being over 35?  I mean, most people get there eventually.

TLDR; don't diss boring.  Constantly striving for faster/stronger/better is fun, but it really sucks if you get injured or older and haven't learned to enjoy exercise for what it is, without the "thrill".

I think you misread Kyle's statement. They weren't saying that there is anything wrong with boring. In fact, they were suggesting that it is optimal for the general population. It wasn't a diss as I read it. It was a recognition that most people don't have the motivation or need to track athletic performance as a more specific way to measure health.

JGS1980

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3376 on: August 04, 2020, 11:14:45 AM »
When did this thread become solely about unfattenning the curves? /s

Could we get back to discussing the once in a lifetime global pandemic with nearly 700,000 global deaths?

Jouer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3377 on: August 04, 2020, 11:15:01 AM »
One major problem with the government coming out and saying "being fit will help you fight COVID" is that the general public cannot follow multiple messages.

We've seen this when we were first suggested to wear masks. People initially thought that meant masks were better than 6-ft distancing. They couldn't, and some still can't, comprehend that distancing is the number 1 driver of safety but masks are good when you can't stay over 6 ft apart. They heard masks and thought they could skip the distancing piece.

So if we tell people being fit will help you fight COVID, what will happen? Fit people will stop worrying about distancing and masks, which even if they don't get sick, they could still spread the disease.

Not everything is about math, sometimes it's about psychology. (as a math major, this is not easy for me to admit)

JGS1980

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3378 on: August 04, 2020, 11:18:26 AM »
Jouer, I disagree.

I think the public is very capable of adhering to a coherent and persistent message reinforced at every level of government. The countries that have done well so far have emphasized consistent messages with few changes along the way.

In the US, not so much.

Captain Cactus

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3379 on: August 04, 2020, 11:24:46 AM »
It is both amazing and maddening the this virus has been politicized. 

Maybe this is a trend around the world, maybe not. 

Jouer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3380 on: August 04, 2020, 11:35:42 AM »
Jouer, I disagree.

I think the public is very capable of adhering to a coherent and persistent message reinforced at every level of government. The countries that have done well so far have emphasized consistent messages with few changes along the way.

In the US, not so much.

Yes, messaging in USA has been a disaster. I guess I have less faith in the populace than you. The countries who have done well so far are better listeners to authority, not the strong suit of many Americans.


GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3381 on: August 04, 2020, 12:01:38 PM »
That's why my recommendation for people is to record and track athletic performance rather than monitor weight loss.  If you used to take 10 minutes to run a mile, and now you can do it in 9 or 8, you have significantly improved your fitness and overall health. 
The reasoning is sound, and is something I pursue with people who come to my gym. Unfortunately, they are a minority. For the general population the question is not what speed they run a mile at, nor even whether they are physically capable of running a mile, but whether they are willing and able to walk a mile in one go.

The general population is in very bad shape, with most over 35 or so having joint problems, and those of all ages being very weak and with poor cardiovascular fitness.

For them, the boring old government recommendations of "150 to 300 minutes of moderate physical activity weekly... 3 cups of vegetables daily..." etc are most appropriate.

Essentially, if own a pair of walking shoes or a bicycle and use them at least three times a week, you are probably in the top quartile of health and fitness in the general population.

I wanted to address this.  What is wrong with boring?   What's wrong with being over 35?  I mean, most people get there eventually.

Look, I'm pretty type-A, and it doesn't always work out for me.  I exercise for me - running, lifting, walking, etc...but I am coming up against age limitations (I'm 50). (Overwork results in Achilles, hip, sciatica, shoulder injuries).

It's fun to work on bringing down my run times...but also injury inducing at my age.  I can do speed work, and it's nice to see my 400m time go down, or my mile time to go down, but it's REALLY hard on my body to try and get my half marathon time to get any lower.  Also, it's not nearly as much fun as just going out and running a long distance and enjoying the scenery.

At some point, MOST people have to come to terms with this.  If you are a super duper competitive person and your lifetime goal is to do a sub-2 half marathon (or sub 1:30), great - but you might want to learn to really enjoy the PROCESS more than the result.  Because results will eventually fade.

Maybe I'm just boring (I know I am), but I'm perfectly happy eating my boring diet with lots of fruits and vegetables, seeing my boring Garmin weekly results of 200-350 minutes of exercise a week, and seeing my amount of weight lifted go up really slowly...enough to get stronger without injury (currently nursing a glute injury because I was careless when returning my 35# KB to it's home during yesterday's workout.)

TLDR; don't diss boring.  Constantly striving for faster/stronger/better is fun, but it really sucks if you get injured or older and haven't learned to enjoy exercise for what it is, without the "thrill".

If you're seeing slow/steady improvement, you're continuing to work towards your goals.  That's not boring.  Boring / non-goal oriented training most often leads to frustration and quitting in the people that I've known.

In my early 20s I was doing Muay Thai . . . with a lot of running and skipping, so there were plenty of easy and trackable performance indicators.  But eventually I was hitting a wall in my ability to progress.  So then in my late 20s I decided to get as strong as I possibly could.  Lifting heavy three or four times a week was great because I could work out a month long program and see steady progress over time.  I packed on a fair amount of muscle (going from 170 to 220 lbs in a little over a year) and got my deadlift/bench/squat the highest they've ever been (likely highest they ever will be).  Then after plateauing for a while at that, I picked up judo and wrestling, and then competitive Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.  My numbers for those three big lifts all dropped as my body lost muscle . . . but I started focusing on and setting personal records at the Olympic lifts and improving my results in tournaments.  When my kid came along in my early 30s there was no time for the kind of gym work that I had been putting in, so I started cycling to work in earnest to save time and just doing whatever lifting I could fit in around that.  Then as my kid got older and free time came up, I started doing longer distance rides and working on my endurance in a way I'd never tried before for several years.  At the beginning of Covid I pulled out my old heavy bag and was disgusted that I couldn't last a three minute round so I've been reducing the amount that I cycle and picking up some boxing again.

My point being, if you can't get your half marathon time any lower because you've reached about as far as you think you can . . . aim for another goal.  Try sprinting if you were doing distance running for a long stretch, try middle distance running.  Hell, cross-train for a goal in another sport try cycling or swimming.  Or both and do triathlons.  The idea is not to dogmatically try to run an extra second harder/longer every time whether or not your spine rips out of your back and your legs explode.  It's to improve your health in the long term, and to constantly be improving at something to provide motivation and a yard stick of measurement.  You definitely want to stick at your goals for a good chunk of time . . . but when you've plateaued for 6 - 8 months, it's always beneficial to look at your training routine and shake things up a bit.

Anyone involved in athletics will get injured sooner or later.  In combat sports especially, training around injury becomes a pretty common problem that you learn to handle.  That doesn't mean you shouldn't shoot for goals, or that you should give up.  It means you need to attack the issue from a different angle.  This is not to say that you shouldn't find enjoyment in the activities you do for their own sake - of course you should find the stuff you do fun, but getting stuck in the rut of just trying to maintain what you once had while time slowly robs you of your health is a grind that you can avoid by striving for new/different goals.

This is also a very different problem than the one that those suffering from obesity and poor health due to terrible diet/lack of exercise face.

PDXTabs

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3382 on: August 04, 2020, 12:21:04 PM »
Fit people will stop worrying about distancing and masks, which even if they don't get sick, they could still spread the disease.

That's totally illogical. I'm working out 5+ times per week because I know that if I get sick, I want to start in a good place. But that doesn't mean that I want to get sick, I still distance and wear a mask. Why give up all my gains for nothing? If I value running and cycling why would I want permanent lung damage?

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3383 on: August 04, 2020, 01:05:27 PM »
Eating healthier, exercising, quitting smoking, living as healthy a life as possible, lowers risk of negative outcomes from covid and everything else. Seems like common sense.

And none of these things reliably cause a person to lose weight.

There's a difference between advocating for folks to adopt healthier habits and telling them to change the size and shape of their bodies when there is no reliable medical protocol to do that.

Health <> weight

Don't disagree that there are all types of bodies. I've had Pacific Islander friends, who, no matter how much they diet and exercise, are never going to be petite. They're just naturally really big, stocky people. There's a big difference, though, between being stout, yet physically strong and healthy, and having rolls of fat hanging off of you, like the Pillsbury Dough Boy, which is not healthy for anyone. Attempting to normalize obesity doesn't seem like a very good idea to me.

mm1970

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3384 on: August 04, 2020, 02:50:45 PM »
Quote
My point being, if you can't get your half marathon time any lower because you've reached about as far as you think you can . . . aim for another goal.

This I learned last year.  2018 was a banner year for running...3 half marathons, getting steadily faster, then I tripped on a trail run and strained my hamstring.  I was out for 3 months.  I spent the first half of 2019 trying (and failing) to get back where I was and was miserable.

That was when I realized (because I stalk running friends on Strava), that nearly every single person I know who had run the half marathons (or one of them) with me - completely quits running for months after a training cycle.  The idea that I had before = "I worked for 2 years to get to a 10:45 pace for a half marathon, and if I don't keep at it I'll lose it" was bad for me.  I mean, it was true.  But who cares?  My faster friends were in many cases just naturally faster.  I've found that for me and friends like me (11:30-14:00/ mile pace on a half marathon) who have to work really hard to get there - don't want to lose the gains.  So my friend A could start running and do a 10 week training cycle and hit 1:50 on a half marathon.  If she's really having a great day, she will be sub 1:45.  My friend D is a sub-2:00 half marathoner who can hit <1:50 with training.  But D literally does not run between training cycles.

Here I was spending 2 years to go from 13:00 to 10:45.  At some point I had to accept that I'm just physically not the same as they are.  If I'm running a couple of times a week, I can go from 14:00 to 11:30 for a half marathon pace, but anything more than that will require a couple of years AND complete dedication to running only.  One of my friends trained for 2 years to get sub 2:00 from a starting point of 2:05.  Even my running coach isn't running right now.

That's not to say that we don't do anything.  After the injury, I joined a kettlebell gym and got really strong.  Gym closed and I started running and swimming more and doing Body Pump.  Body Pump wasn't my favorite but it was fun.  No exercise is better than another, just different.  Sure, if I tried to go balls out right now, I *might* manage a mile in 9:15 and I'm doing knee pushups but my squats are killer.  I've really been enjoying not having long runs on Saturdays.  I alternate one week walking up the big hill with my husband and dog, with another week taking a short family hike with kids whining the whole time.

That's what stalking taught me.  "A" takes a break from running and switches to cycling.  D was a fellow kettlebell person.  My third friend is pretty much a crossfitter, and does one half marathon a year.  My running coach is training for a long backpacking trip.

Fru-Gal

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3385 on: August 04, 2020, 03:11:13 PM »
Personally, I always find your exercise posts inspiring/motivating, @mm1970. Agree with your POV. Personally if I don't keep switching up goals/activities, I get bored and blubbery LOL.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3386 on: August 04, 2020, 06:13:37 PM »
One major problem with the government coming out and saying "being fit will help you fight COVID" is that the general public cannot follow multiple messages.

We've seen this when we were first suggested to wear masks. People initially thought that meant masks were better than 6-ft distancing. They couldn't, and some still can't, comprehend that distancing is the number 1 driver of safety but masks are good when you can't stay over 6 ft apart. They heard masks and thought they could skip the distancing piece.

So if we tell people being fit will help you fight COVID, what will happen? Fit people will stop worrying about distancing and masks, which even if they don't get sick, they could still spread the disease.

Not everything is about math, sometimes it's about psychology. (as a math major, this is not easy for me to admit)

I think there's a grain of truth there. When our government banned movement other than for shopping, exercising and care giving, suddenly a lot of people realised they had to travel great distances to buy things from Bunnings, or to go exercising/hiking. A lot of the exercise-driven enthusiasm was sincere (not just an excuse to move around), so that was a plus, but the movement made it harder for the government to track which areas were "hotspots". (Strangely, they are still loath to release detailed data on this, and the only reason I can think of is that they don't want to stigmatise certain areas, and/or they don't want non-hotspot areas advocating for looser restrictions. Which in my view is not a good reason to not release the data they have. )

Now shopping and exercise are restricted to a 5km radius so "essential/priority work" is the only thing we can use to justify travel and curfew-breaking.

kenmoremmm

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3387 on: August 04, 2020, 10:01:45 PM »
anyone have an opinion on the decreasing number of daily cases as reported by NYT? today we're at mid-40k territory. i don't think that people have largely changed patterns, and for sure, there has been little national guidance.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3388 on: August 05, 2020, 12:18:54 AM »
I think you misread Kyle's statement. They weren't saying that there is anything wrong with boring. In fact, they were suggesting that it is optimal for the general population.
Correct.

In a longitudinal study in the UK of many thousands of men, they tested their strength (by bench press and leg press), cardiovascular fitness and recorded everything else about them health-wise. Then waited 15-20 years to see who died, and of what.

The bottom third in strength were much more likely to get cancer and die from other causes (falls, etc), but strength made no difference to heart disease. The bottom third in endurance were much more likely to die of all causes. Interestingly, being in the top third gave them no benefit in reducing mortality. I would still encourage it, since being stronger and fitter can improve quality of life, even if not quantity - but that's the stats: just don't be in the bottom third.

The boring government advice of 150-300' moderate or 75-150' vigorous endurance work weekly, and 2-3 muscle strengthening sessions, along with the dietary guidelines, are more than sufficient to keep people out of the bottom third of strength and endurance.

And if you think about it, this applies in many things. The kids in the top third of the class at school don't necessarily have better lives than those in the middle third - but both are definitely better off than the kids in the bottom third of class. Those in the top third of income and wealth aren't necessarily happier than those in the middle third, but they're almost always happier than those in the bottom third. And so on, through many measurable outcomes.

Just don't be in the bottom third. Anything else is just a bonus.

One major problem with the government coming out and saying "being fit will help you fight COVID" is that the general public cannot follow multiple messages.

If someone has failed to understand a message, this may be because,
1. the listener has failed to understand, or
2. the speaker has failed to make themselves clear

Now, cultures differ in where they place the onus of responsibility. But in the case of government, where one person is speaking to millions, I would suggest the responsibility lies mainly with the speaker in being clear.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3389 on: August 05, 2020, 01:28:27 AM »
anyone have an opinion on the decreasing number of daily cases as reported by NYT? today we're at mid-40k territory. i don't think that people have largely changed patterns, and for sure, there has been little national guidance.

It's interesting. Maybe it's reflective of the summer weather? I wonder weather the second wave here in Victoria is correlated with the cold winter we've been having.

I really wish the authorities would announce suburb-by-suburb (i.e., postcode by postcode) stats on daily infections, recoveries etc. We know they have them because they announce them sporadically and they also used them to justify a series of local lockdowns.

Imagine having daily transparency on which suburbs were doing the best and worst with infections! It would encourage people to keep doing their best to stay at home and beat the virus, and in time, as figures come down, we could use that data to determine which parts of the state can thaw out first. And from a demographic point of view it would make for great data for correlational studies.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3390 on: August 05, 2020, 03:40:42 AM »
It's interesting. Maybe it's reflective of the summer weather? I wonder weather the second wave here in Victoria is correlated with the cold winter we've been having.

I really wish the authorities would announce suburb-by-suburb (i.e., postcode by postcode) stats on daily infections, recoveries etc. We know they have them because they announce them sporadically and they also used them to justify a series of local lockdowns.

Aren't flu numbers way down?

Also, they do publish numbers by LGA (not by postcode but still). Check the media releases at the bottom of the page or the 'View full report' link under 'Latest Victorian numbers'.

https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus

https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-update-victoria-5-august-2020

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiODBmMmE3NWQtZWNlNC00OWRkLTk1NjYtMjM2YTY1MjI2NzdjIiwidCI6ImMwZTA2MDFmLTBmYWMtNDQ5Yy05Yzg4LWExMDRjNGViOWYyOCJ9

cerat0n1a

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3391 on: August 05, 2020, 05:16:49 AM »
Aren't flu numbers way down?

There was a radio programme here a couple of weeks back which had an Aussie scientist talking about flu. Apparently, it's hardly happened in Australia so far this winter, and it's not clear whether it's just not a particularly virulent strain this year, whether there's a Covid-19 interaction that means both viruses can't do well at the same time, or whether the obvious explanation that all that handwashing, mask wearing and social isolation has stopped flu spreading is correct.

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3392 on: August 05, 2020, 06:16:01 AM »
anyone have an opinion on the decreasing number of daily cases as reported by NYT? today we're at mid-40k territory. i don't think that people have largely changed patterns, and for sure, there has been little national guidance.
My guess is that people have modified their behavior from what I have seen locally.

A month ago I would see just a few people wearing masks while out on the trails or at the lake now you see more people with them than without even outdoors. Maybe 1/3 of people were wearing them going in stores a month ago now 100% are wearing them inside due to a state wide mask policy when in public places.

I have also noticed a shift in people taking socially distancing / precautions more seriously and an attitude shift from it is just a cold / the flu to accepting that it is serious.

It really amazed me this weekend how many people (especially college age kids here in Boulder) were wearing masks and staying apart at the place we went paddle boarding. In the past weekends people looked at us like we had a third eye because we were wearing masks while unloading and getting into the water now people were even wearing them out on the water.

I even heard a little girl (maybe) 5 scold her brother for putting his sandwich on the picnic table and them picking it up and eating it again. She told him that he couldn’t do that because of the covid.


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slappy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3393 on: August 05, 2020, 06:41:31 AM »
One major problem with the government coming out and saying "being fit will help you fight COVID" is that the general public cannot follow multiple messages.

We've seen this when we were first suggested to wear masks. People initially thought that meant masks were better than 6-ft distancing. They couldn't, and some still can't, comprehend that distancing is the number 1 driver of safety but masks are good when you can't stay over 6 ft apart. They heard masks and thought they could skip the distancing piece.

So if we tell people being fit will help you fight COVID, what will happen? Fit people will stop worrying about distancing and masks, which even if they don't get sick, they could still spread the disease.

Not everything is about math, sometimes it's about psychology. (as a math major, this is not easy for me to admit)

One major problem with saying that being fit helps covid is that it's not actually true. (At least by my understanding, but I'm not a scientist or anything of that nature.) I have seen many reports of young and healthy people either being hospitalized for weeks, having long term effects or even passing away from covid. Maybe they weren't "fit" in the sense of they work out regularly, but they were "healthy with no underlying conditions". I do think you are right about not being able to follow multiple messages though, which is why leadership (or lack thereof in this case) is so important. I imagine any other president would have been wearing a mask for weeks, if not months, by now. Actions speak louder than words.

Jouer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3394 on: August 05, 2020, 06:54:56 AM »
Fit people will stop worrying about distancing and masks, which even if they don't get sick, they could still spread the disease.

That's totally illogical. I'm working out 5+ times per week because I know that if I get sick, I want to start in a good place. But that doesn't mean that I want to get sick, I still distance and wear a mask. Why give up all my gains for nothing? If I value running and cycling why would I want permanent lung damage?

Absolutely. Completely 100% illogical. Based on what you've seen in some people since March, do you expect any different?

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3395 on: August 05, 2020, 07:00:51 AM »
One major problem with the government coming out and saying "being fit will help you fight COVID" is that the general public cannot follow multiple messages.

We've seen this when we were first suggested to wear masks. People initially thought that meant masks were better than 6-ft distancing. They couldn't, and some still can't, comprehend that distancing is the number 1 driver of safety but masks are good when you can't stay over 6 ft apart. They heard masks and thought they could skip the distancing piece.

So if we tell people being fit will help you fight COVID, what will happen? Fit people will stop worrying about distancing and masks, which even if they don't get sick, they could still spread the disease.

Not everything is about math, sometimes it's about psychology. (as a math major, this is not easy for me to admit)

One major problem with saying that being fit helps covid is that it's not actually true. (At least by my understanding, but I'm not a scientist or anything of that nature.) I have seen many reports of young and healthy people either being hospitalized for weeks, having long term effects or even passing away from covid. Maybe they weren't "fit" in the sense of they work out regularly, but they were "healthy with no underlying conditions". I do think you are right about not being able to follow multiple messages though, which is why leadership (or lack thereof in this case) is so important. I imagine any other president would have been wearing a mask for weeks, if not months, by now. Actions speak louder than words.

Younger, fitter people are more likely to have a “mild” case, which is the term used merely to describe someone who doesn’t require hospitalization. Many are still be sick enough to require weeks or months of recovery. Hence this: Take Coronavirus More Seriously, Say Olympic Rowers Who Got It (NY Times)

Quote
The rowers infected ranged in age from 23 to 37, Regan said, and many battled symptoms for weeks. The cases were categorized as mild, though some athletes dealt with complications for as many as 40 days, according to Wenger. None of the rowers required hospitalization, he said.

Regan, 32, said it took her a month to feel back to normal after she fell ill. More than three months later, she is still trying to get back into competitive shape, she said. That level of fitness was extremely high: Regan is a four-time world champion in her ninth year on the national team.

“I’ve never struggled like that before,” she said.

Davnasty

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3396 on: August 05, 2020, 07:04:08 AM »
One major problem with the government coming out and saying "being fit will help you fight COVID" is that the general public cannot follow multiple messages.

We've seen this when we were first suggested to wear masks. People initially thought that meant masks were better than 6-ft distancing. They couldn't, and some still can't, comprehend that distancing is the number 1 driver of safety but masks are good when you can't stay over 6 ft apart. They heard masks and thought they could skip the distancing piece.

So if we tell people being fit will help you fight COVID, what will happen? Fit people will stop worrying about distancing and masks, which even if they don't get sick, they could still spread the disease.

Not everything is about math, sometimes it's about psychology. (as a math major, this is not easy for me to admit)

One major problem with saying that being fit helps covid is that it's not actually true. (At least by my understanding, but I'm not a scientist or anything of that nature.) I have seen many reports of young and healthy people either being hospitalized for weeks, having long term effects or even passing away from covid. Maybe they weren't "fit" in the sense of they work out regularly, but they were "healthy with no underlying conditions". I do think you are right about not being able to follow multiple messages though, which is why leadership (or lack thereof in this case) is so important. I imagine any other president would have been wearing a mask for weeks, if not months, by now. Actions speak louder than words.

Some people die in car accidents despite wearing a seatbelt, does that mean seatbelts don't help?

Being younger and in better health absolutely helps with covid outcomes, but it doesn't make you invincible.

Travis

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3397 on: August 05, 2020, 07:19:23 AM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

Mandatory mask wear, everyone staying home for the first 45 days of the outbreak, contact tracing, and limiting groups.  It was that simple for us. Half of today's new cases were actually Americans flying in, and everyone entering the country must spend two weeks in isolation to see if they're sick so they don't spread it.  Testing has been widespread and thorough, and catching it early with well-funded and prepared medical facilities has meant a low death rate.  We got complacent in June and one guy went and spread it all over Seoul in a single weekend (1 became 30 in 3 days), but by sticking to the script we're still holding steady at no more than a couple dozen new infections per day out of a population of 50 million.

https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/why-are-koreas-covid-19-death-rates-so-low/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/hbsworkingknowledge/2020/06/16/what-south-korea-teaches-the-world-about-fighting-covid/#8e950c13e365

Travis

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3398 on: August 05, 2020, 07:23:03 AM »
One major problem with the government coming out and saying "being fit will help you fight COVID" is that the general public cannot follow multiple messages.

We've seen this when we were first suggested to wear masks. People initially thought that meant masks were better than 6-ft distancing. They couldn't, and some still can't, comprehend that distancing is the number 1 driver of safety but masks are good when you can't stay over 6 ft apart. They heard masks and thought they could skip the distancing piece.

So if we tell people being fit will help you fight COVID, what will happen? Fit people will stop worrying about distancing and masks, which even if they don't get sick, they could still spread the disease.

Not everything is about math, sometimes it's about psychology. (as a math major, this is not easy for me to admit)

One major problem with saying that being fit helps covid is that it's not actually true. (At least by my understanding, but I'm not a scientist or anything of that nature.) I have seen many reports of young and healthy people either being hospitalized for weeks, having long term effects or even passing away from covid. Maybe they weren't "fit" in the sense of they work out regularly, but they were "healthy with no underlying conditions". I do think you are right about not being able to follow multiple messages though, which is why leadership (or lack thereof in this case) is so important. I imagine any other president would have been wearing a mask for weeks, if not months, by now. Actions speak louder than words.

Some people die in car accidents despite wearing a seatbelt, does that mean seatbelts don't help?

Being younger and in better health absolutely helps with covid outcomes, but it doesn't make you invincible.

You're saying we should argue with a person to wear their seat belt while they're chugging their fifth beer of the afternoon and twirling their car keys around their finger right in front of you.  The seat belt might save their life, but putting the beer and the keys away is a better solution that they're willfully ignoring.

The icing on the cake of your driving analogy is they're equally likely to seriously hurt someone else whether the drunk driver wears a seat belt or not.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2020, 07:24:36 AM by Travis »

Roland of Gilead

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3399 on: August 05, 2020, 07:27:19 AM »
The USA is a melting pot with so many different cultures.  Even with a different president pre-covid, I do not think we would have been able to follow the model of South Korea.