Some interesting theoretical models regarding social distancing and its efficacy from Harvard's Public Health department (
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793)
They created a model of transmission using two known coronavirii, fitted this model to prior records, then added the new coronavirus using estimated parameters from current data (the major limitation of this study).
The basic summary is: social distancing duration (4, 8, 20 weeks) only affects the onset of a second wave, but not its ability to overwhelm current hospital capacity. If the social distancing is very effective (60% reduction in transmission rate from a baseline 2.2 estimated from other coronavirii), then the second peak is nearly the same as without distancing measures. (Figures 4 - assuming no seasonal variation and 5 assuming seasonal variation, left panels). In nearly all scenarios, current critical care bed capacity will be overwhelmed at some point regardless of measures taken, other than indefinite social distancing until a vaccine is developed. In this case, a 40% or 60% reduction would stay below this threshold. The obvious advantages of longer social distancing time are the ability to increase critical care capacity and longer time to develop a vaccine. Obvious disadvantage is the economic fall-out.
The second prediction is that having cut-offs for opening up and shutting down society will allow intermittent exposure and ultimately herd immunity without overwhelming critical care capacity (Figure 6), but this would take to 2025 with current capacity, or until 2022 with doubling of capacity, with >75% of the time spent shut down in the former scenario. If we get a break in the summer, then significantly less time is spent shut down (especially if critical care capacity increases).
So it seems the best option is moderate social distancing to spread out the pain, and ramping up both ventilator capacity and re-tooling the majority of inpatient healthcare for the next 1-2 years towards managing COVID. Unfortunately there really is no good scenario in any of this.
Two trials on chloroquine/azithromycin were stopped due to high risk of fatal arrhythmias and lack of efficacy in reducing viral load. Other trials are ongoing.
In more positive news, there is promising signs on vaccine development. Both the NHS and Johnson & Johnson estimate clinical randomized trials to start by September, with preliminary results by December and potential manufacturing to start in January. Everyone hang in there, it's going to be a bumpy ride.