How long can we wait while flattening the curve?

[OtherJen]

I'm so sorry, Aussies. It looks like Sydney/NSW is where my region was in March 2020. Hard shutdowns absolutely suck, but they saved lives and kept our local medical systems from collapsing (despite what detractors continue to claim in defiance of the science).

Vulnerable people here were double masking in some situations. My mother did and was the only worker in her office who didn't get COVID last fall. As the delta variant appears to be significantly more contagious than the version that wreaked havoc here last year, you might consider double masking if you have to go out. I sincerely wish you all the best.

[former player]

The most protective type of mask is an FFP3 -


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57636360

[middo]

News from Australia about the Delta virus states that its transmissibility within the household of an infected person is 100%, and that it can be caught just from walking past an infected person. 

Not really, no.

So how's containment going in Australia at the moment?

There may be better information now, but here are my sources from 28 June:

"In Sydney, officials say the virus is infecting 100% of household contacts when it's brought into a home."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-57633457

"... case reported on Friday afternoon of a man in his 50s who was on the same floor of the Westfield Bondi Junction Myer as the initial Bondi case last Saturday. NSW health minister Brad Hazzard said the Delta variant which is behind this outbreak is a “near and present danger” given the fleeting contact between cases at the Bondi Junction Westfield.  “It is fair to say that this Delta virus would appear to be a near and present danger to anybody who is in the vicinity." The woman in her 40s regularly walks through the shopping centre, and it is not clear yet the date transmission occurred."

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/19/new-south-wales-records-three-new-covid-cases-as-mandatory-masks-introduced

NSW is pretty fucked at the moment. Expecting 100+ cases to be reported tomorrow.

We've sat here for a year by absolute dumb luck with 0-1 cases a day and the genie has finally escaped the bottle. Our incompetent federal government not only tried to nickle and dime Pfizer last year so they simply said "piss off, we'll send them to other countries first", but now has also successfully managed to scare the population against the AZ vaccine so right now we sit with only 8% fully vaccinated.

Hubris is always the downfall. We're a bloody laughing stock now.

To the 2 loud Victorians in this thread... you've complained a lot about heavy handed lockdowns but geez there's a lot of us up here who wish our state government did the same thing when the first cases were reported.

I don't know if I am a loud Victorian, but I am a reluctant Victorian. 

I hope Sydney really gets on top of this as soon as possible.  I am concerned that the current lock down settings are seeing the numbers still grow rather than fall.  I am concerned that Sydney ultimately hasn't learnt the hard lessons of Victoria that other states have shown to be effective.  Go hard, go early. 

I hope that it doesn't seed elsewhere anymore than it has too.

[NorthernIkigai]

Well if you're managing to keep Delta in its box you must be doing a lot of things right - that's good to hear that it's possible!

As a soccer player said about the complex way of determining which teams get to continue in the Euro 2020 which are played at the moment: We're keeping our fingers, toes, legs, and hairs crossed.

My optimism about being able to keep Delta in its box has not worked out that well... but also not terribly. It's now the main variant here, and the overall numbers are up, although they seem to have plateaued at a somewhat worrying, but not yet scary, level.

The main reason for the higher numbers are idiotic travelers (to said Euro 2020 and elsewhere) coming back, testing negative on the border, and then promptly IGNORING the second part of the rule: to self-isolate for at least 3 days before taking a new test. At least some people (even people I know) have taken a TNSIS* approach and just partied and traveled around during those 3 days. People really don't seem to understand, even after all this time, that testing negative once doesn't mean you're not carrying the virus already and that there is a reason for that second test and the self-isolation before it.

* Similar to YOLO, but short for The Nordic Summer is Short, ie you absolutely have to engage in all the activities you had planned, regardless of whether that actually breaks the law and puts your health and that of others at risk.

[marty998]

News from Australia about the Delta virus states that its transmissibility within the household of an infected person is 100%, and that it can be caught just from walking past an infected person. 

Not really, no.

So how's containment going in Australia at the moment?

There may be better information now, but here are my sources from 28 June:

"In Sydney, officials say the virus is infecting 100% of household contacts when it's brought into a home."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-57633457

"... case reported on Friday afternoon of a man in his 50s who was on the same floor of the Westfield Bondi Junction Myer as the initial Bondi case last Saturday. NSW health minister Brad Hazzard said the Delta variant which is behind this outbreak is a “near and present danger” given the fleeting contact between cases at the Bondi Junction Westfield.  “It is fair to say that this Delta virus would appear to be a near and present danger to anybody who is in the vicinity." The woman in her 40s regularly walks through the shopping centre, and it is not clear yet the date transmission occurred."

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/19/new-south-wales-records-three-new-covid-cases-as-mandatory-masks-introduced

NSW is pretty fucked at the moment. Expecting 100+ cases to be reported tomorrow.

We've sat here for a year by absolute dumb luck with 0-1 cases a day and the genie has finally escaped the bottle. Our incompetent federal government not only tried to nickle and dime Pfizer last year so they simply said "piss off, we'll send them to other countries first", but now has also successfully managed to scare the population against the AZ vaccine so right now we sit with only 8% fully vaccinated.

Hubris is always the downfall. We're a bloody laughing stock now.

To the 2 loud Victorians in this thread... you've complained a lot about heavy handed lockdowns but geez there's a lot of us up here who wish our state government did the same thing when the first cases were reported.

I don't know if I am a loud Victorian, but I am a reluctant Victorian. 

I hope Sydney really gets on top of this as soon as possible.  I am concerned that the current lock down settings are seeing the numbers still grow rather than fall.  I am concerned that Sydney ultimately hasn't learnt the hard lessons of Victoria that other states have shown to be effective.  Go hard, go early. 

I hope that it doesn't seed elsewhere anymore than it has too.

There are two others Middo. I also need to slightly correct my comment above.... I saw an interesting little chart today that Sydney has been implementing lockdowns this month much quicker than Victoria did last time around.

For the Victorian outbreak last year it took 67 days to get from the first case to the decision to move to "Stage 3" lockdowns... Sydney is there in less than 25, so yeah lessons have been learned, even though we feel as if there is reluctance to do it. but this variant is a hell of a lot more infectious than the one that circulated in Melbourne in 2020.

[RetiredAt63]

* Similar to YOLO, but short for The Nordic Summer is Short, ie you absolutely have to engage in all the activities you had planned, regardless of whether that actually breaks the law and puts your health and that of others at risk.

So true, could just as easily be TCSIS, The Canadian Summer Is Short.  Can't let COVID keep us from summer fun (and cottages).

[middo]

News from Australia about the Delta virus states that its transmissibility within the household of an infected person is 100%, and that it can be caught just from walking past an infected person. 

Not really, no.

So how's containment going in Australia at the moment?

There may be better information now, but here are my sources from 28 June:

"In Sydney, officials say the virus is infecting 100% of household contacts when it's brought into a home."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-57633457

"... case reported on Friday afternoon of a man in his 50s who was on the same floor of the Westfield Bondi Junction Myer as the initial Bondi case last Saturday. NSW health minister Brad Hazzard said the Delta variant which is behind this outbreak is a “near and present danger” given the fleeting contact between cases at the Bondi Junction Westfield.  “It is fair to say that this Delta virus would appear to be a near and present danger to anybody who is in the vicinity." The woman in her 40s regularly walks through the shopping centre, and it is not clear yet the date transmission occurred."

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/19/new-south-wales-records-three-new-covid-cases-as-mandatory-masks-introduced

NSW is pretty fucked at the moment. Expecting 100+ cases to be reported tomorrow.

We've sat here for a year by absolute dumb luck with 0-1 cases a day and the genie has finally escaped the bottle. Our incompetent federal government not only tried to nickle and dime Pfizer last year so they simply said "piss off, we'll send them to other countries first", but now has also successfully managed to scare the population against the AZ vaccine so right now we sit with only 8% fully vaccinated.

Hubris is always the downfall. We're a bloody laughing stock now.

To the 2 loud Victorians in this thread... you've complained a lot about heavy handed lockdowns but geez there's a lot of us up here who wish our state government did the same thing when the first cases were reported.

I don't know if I am a loud Victorian, but I am a reluctant Victorian. 

I hope Sydney really gets on top of this as soon as possible.  I am concerned that the current lock down settings are seeing the numbers still grow rather than fall.  I am concerned that Sydney ultimately hasn't learnt the hard lessons of Victoria that other states have shown to be effective.  Go hard, go early. 

I hope that it doesn't seed elsewhere anymore than it has too.

There are two others Middo. I also need to slightly correct my comment above.... I saw an interesting little chart today that Sydney has been implementing lockdowns this month much quicker than Victoria did last time around.

For the Victorian outbreak last year it took 67 days to get from the first case to the decision to move to "Stage 3" lockdowns... Sydney is there in less than 25, so yeah lessons have been learned, even though we feel as if there is reluctance to do it. but this variant is a hell of a lot more infectious than the one that circulated in Melbourne in 2020.

Yes, they have gone into a lockdown at less cases and quicker than Melbourne did.  But it is also worth remembering that Melbourne had not properly stopped the first wave before the second one broke out.  Our useless contract tracing was still dealing with returned travellers while the second wave was unfolding, and Federally there was enormous pressure to not shut down. 

As I said, I really hope they get it under control, sooner rather than later.  My concern is they are going for the least lockdown possible, which will mean a longer lockdown and cases dragging on for months.

[habanero]

Im a bit surprised by how differently this delta variant plays out in various places. There has been numerous local outbreaks here (Norway) but it has - so far - at least never developed into anything resembling any drama on a largerscale. We are also among the lest vaccinated in Western Europa as we only use Moderna and Pfizer and not AZ or J&J nor is there much underlying immunity in the population to speak of. Bar large indoor gatherings such as big concerts etc you wouldn't know there is kind of a pandemic going on if you landed in the capital. I'd say mask use is probably at 10% or so (only mandatory on public transport afaik) but then again hardly anyone wore a face mask here last spring so its less of a social marker here then elsewhere maybe. I've not worn one since the mandate was dropped. I got my first jab three weeks ago so in the official lingo I am considered "protected" which is a status you get 3 weeks after first jab or if you had covid in the last 6 months. This means if I'm going to say a football game I don't need a rapid test.

Hospitals are pretty much empty of covid patients. Probably around 2 hospitals per covid patient at the moment.

Since it's contagious as fuck I'd expect it to spread rapidly once it shows up given that people dont really care that much anymore based on public behaviour at least. That said, our testing-contact tracing-quarantine regime is pretty well-oiled so they catch stuff early and border regulations have up to now been very strict but much more relaxed now if you're in the "Protected" group at least.

[RetiredAt63]

How long will we need to wait before enough people are vaccinated and the curve flattens?  A long time if these people have their way.


https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19-health/dozen-misguided-influencers-spread-most-anti-vaccination-content-social-media

[NorthernIkigai]

I guess it depends partly on which curve we are looking at.

Although the UK positive test numbers are going up at a hair-raising rate again (and that's with 68% of people vaccinated and 53% of people fully vaccinated!) the numbers of deaths between mid-May and early July looked ... acceptable? They have kept climbing since, though, just like the positive test numbers.



I'm wondering what kind of an effect long covid will still have on us all as societies and some of us as individuals, though, long after the pandemic will be officially over.

(Nicked the pic from here: https://twitter.com/john_cope/status/1416850870453538819/photo/1)

[LightTripper]

That comparison will be slightly flattering, given that deaths lag positive cases, and we are still pretty early into the third wave (around 40-50k cases per day, with a forecast we will peak above 100k and maybe even over 200k per day).  Still, even if you made allowance for that by doubling or quadrupling the death number, it's still a very powerful graphic in favour of vaccination!  Particularly considering at the beginning of this wave many of us were only single vaxxed with AZ (which doesn't offer great protection even against serious illness), while as it goes on increasing numbers will be double vaxxed with AZ or single/double vaxxed with Pfizer, both of which offer a lot more protection against hospitalisation and death.

The UK is one huge guinea pig at the moment, which is pretty worrying for those of us living here (particularly with unvaxxed people such as children, and knowing so little about the long term implications of long Covid) - but hopefully at least wlil be of some use to other countries further back on the Delta curve.

[alsoknownasDean]

Unfortunately it seems that the lockdown in NSW hasn't done enough to suppress the Delta outbreak, considering cases are still increasing (163 new community cases today).

For anyone in Sydney especially, you have my sympathies. Long-term COVID lockdowns aren't fun.

For those who suggest to 'open up and just let it rip', with a population where about 15% have had both shots and 35% having had at least one, an uncontrolled Delta outbreak would result in thousands of deaths.

Although it seems that whenever there's an outbreak/lockdown, vaccination rates increase.

[marty998]

Unfortunately it seems that the lockdown in NSW hasn't done enough to suppress the Delta outbreak, considering cases are still increasing (163 new community cases today).

For anyone in Sydney especially, you have my sympathies. Long-term COVID lockdowns aren't fun.

For those who suggest to 'open up and just let it rip', with a population where about 15% have had both shots and 35% having had at least one, an uncontrolled Delta outbreak would result in thousands of deaths.

Although it seems that whenever there's an outbreak/lockdown, vaccination rates increase.

Not sure we deserve any sympathy after thousands went marching through the CBD today. It was disgraceful. There's a city wide manhunt underway for a man who punched one of the police horses.

No one is advocating let it rip but it's so bad that people are still not getting the message. You could see Health Minister Brad Hazzard was at the end of his rope today.

I have been trying to find a GP or pharmacy who will let me have AZ but whatever reason they keep saying "come back in a few months" or they just don't have supply. GP's are under enough pressure as it is with an existing patient list to deal with, without the added pressure of "healthy" people coming asking for vaccines. I don't want to be that person clogging up the system, but equally it's a little frustrating that there's really no guidance on where you can book a spot.

We simply have too many 40 year olds waiting for Pfizer, and the federal government not having a clue what to do.

[alsoknownasDean]

Unfortunately it seems that the lockdown in NSW hasn't done enough to suppress the Delta outbreak, considering cases are still increasing (163 new community cases today).

For anyone in Sydney especially, you have my sympathies. Long-term COVID lockdowns aren't fun.

For those who suggest to 'open up and just let it rip', with a population where about 15% have had both shots and 35% having had at least one, an uncontrolled Delta outbreak would result in thousands of deaths.

Although it seems that whenever there's an outbreak/lockdown, vaccination rates increase.

Not sure we deserve any sympathy after thousands went marching through the CBD today. It was disgraceful. There's a city wide manhunt underway for a man who punched one of the police horses.

No one is advocating let it rip but it's so bad that people are still not getting the message. You could see Health Minister Brad Hazzard was at the end of his rope today.

I have been trying to find a GP or pharmacy who will let me have AZ but whatever reason they keep saying "come back in a few months" or they just don't have supply. GP's are under enough pressure as it is with an existing patient list to deal with, without the added pressure of "healthy" people coming asking for vaccines. I don't want to be that person clogging up the system, but equally it's a little frustrating that there's really no guidance on where you can book a spot.

We simply have too many 40 year olds waiting for Pfizer, and the federal government not having a clue what to do.

Well out of 8 million or so people in NSW you're bound to have a few dickheads among them.

I see in the NSW press conferences a lot of begging and pleading for people to follow the rules. Somehow given the number of cases arising from unlawful gatherings, the message isn't getting through.

Still surprised that Bunnings etc is open and there's still no mandatory outdoor masks in Sydney.

Weren't they saying that NSW had plenty of AZ to go around? Do they have many mass-vaccination hubs in Sydney? Can you book online? I've considered AZ but I think I'll wait until Pfizer eligibility is opened up, hopefully by September.

It seems that the Federal Government decided to put all of their eggs in the AstraZeneca basket, and with the changing medical advice around that vaccine, they've been caught with their pants down. I can understand considering the AZ vaccine can be produced locally, but surely a bigger order of Pfizer or Moderna would have been prudent. And I'm absolutely amazed that the limo driver who caught it and bought it into the community was unvaccinated and wasn't wearing a mask. Wouldn't be surprised if there's still a bunch of unvaccinated aged care staff.

Speaking of masks, I've been into a few shops with staff not wearing masks, and I won't be going back into those shops until the virus is gone from the community. It only takes one turd to ruin a swimming pool, and it only takes one person with Delta to cause a super-spreading event.  I've left the house once since Wednesday.

[marty998]

Unfortunately it seems that the lockdown in NSW hasn't done enough to suppress the Delta outbreak, considering cases are still increasing (163 new community cases today).

For anyone in Sydney especially, you have my sympathies. Long-term COVID lockdowns aren't fun.

For those who suggest to 'open up and just let it rip', with a population where about 15% have had both shots and 35% having had at least one, an uncontrolled Delta outbreak would result in thousands of deaths.

Although it seems that whenever there's an outbreak/lockdown, vaccination rates increase.

Not sure we deserve any sympathy after thousands went marching through the CBD today. It was disgraceful. There's a city wide manhunt underway for a man who punched one of the police horses.

No one is advocating let it rip but it's so bad that people are still not getting the message. You could see Health Minister Brad Hazzard was at the end of his rope today.

I have been trying to find a GP or pharmacy who will let me have AZ but whatever reason they keep saying "come back in a few months" or they just don't have supply. GP's are under enough pressure as it is with an existing patient list to deal with, without the added pressure of "healthy" people coming asking for vaccines. I don't want to be that person clogging up the system, but equally it's a little frustrating that there's really no guidance on where you can book a spot.

We simply have too many 40 year olds waiting for Pfizer, and the federal government not having a clue what to do.

Well out of 8 million or so people in NSW you're bound to have a few dickheads among them.

I see in the NSW press conferences a lot of begging and pleading for people to follow the rules. Somehow given the number of cases arising from unlawful gatherings, the message isn't getting through.

Still surprised that Bunnings etc is open and there's still no mandatory outdoor masks in Sydney.

Weren't they saying that NSW had plenty of AZ to go around? Do they have many mass-vaccination hubs in Sydney? Can you book online? I've considered AZ but I think I'll wait until Pfizer eligibility is opened up, hopefully by September.

It seems that the Federal Government decided to put all of their eggs in the AstraZeneca basket, and with the changing medical advice around that vaccine, they've been caught with their pants down. I can understand considering the AZ vaccine can be produced locally, but surely a bigger order of Pfizer or Moderna would have been prudent. And I'm absolutely amazed that the limo driver who caught it and bought it into the community was unvaccinated and wasn't wearing a mask. Wouldn't be surprised if there's still a bunch of unvaccinated aged care staff.

Speaking of masks, I've been into a few shops with staff not wearing masks, and I won't be going back into those shops until the virus is gone from the community. It only takes one turd to ruin a swimming pool, and it only takes one person with Delta to cause a super-spreading event.  I've left the house once since Wednesday.

Yep, plenty of AZ, but the where do you go to get it? The roll out is a shambles.

Regarding the limo driver… I’m not sure a mask would have made a difference. It wouldn’t have stopped the virus getting on his hands for example, and people (myself included) are not that great when it comes to keeping hands away from eyes and mouth when putting and taking masks on and off.

Now if the limo driver was vaccinated…, or the FedEx crew he was transporting were tested before being allowed to fly into the country with the Delta Strain….

[deborah]

News reports say that NSW have used 15% of their AZ allocation. I think the other jurisdictions have also used less than is available - that’s why we can give it to other nations.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/22/nsw-government-has-only-used-15-of-its-allocation-of-the-astrazeneca-vaccine

The ABC had the same story.

I do think NSW is doing reasonably - not well enough, but they’ve been keeping the numbers pretty steady, and that must take a lot of effort. They just need a bit of a boost. I’ve just been talking to someone there and he said that the footpaths are crowded whenever his family goes out for exercise, which would be a problem.

[Kyle Schuant]

This is Australia right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yY7PSF59KWY

[frugalnacho]

There is no mask mandate in my state, and from what I can tell no businesses (except medical facilities) are requiring masks.  I went to a couple of stores recently, and probably 80% of the people do not wear masks.  Of the people that do wear masks, a good portion of them are wearing them below their nose, or under their chin.  It's totally baffling.  No one is making you wear a mask, it's 100% voluntary, so you are making a conscious decision to don a mask, but you are wearing it incorrectly.  Why? So perplexing.

[windytrail]

There is no mask mandate in my state, and from what I can tell no businesses (except medical facilities) are requiring masks.  I went to a couple of stores recently, and probably 80% of the people do not wear masks.  Of the people that do wear masks, a good portion of them are wearing them below their nose, or under their chin.  It's totally baffling.  No one is making you wear a mask, it's 100% voluntary, so you are making a conscious decision to don a mask, but you are wearing it incorrectly.  Why? So perplexing.

Here it's the opposite: 90%+ of people still wearing masks at the grocery store even where it's voluntary. Not me, though.

Damn unvaccinated people ruining it for the rest of us. Wouldn't be surprised if they issue a new mask mandate here now that the CDC is planning on revising its guidance.

I personally don't feel unsafe at all because I trust the science and the data that show you are very, very unlikely to become hospitalized with the virus after you've been vaccinated. And the risk to children who have not yet been vaccinated is even less than previously thought:

Children are at extremely slim risk of dying from Covid-19, according to some of the most comprehensive studies to date, which indicate the threat might be even lower than previously thought.

Some 99.995% of the 469,982 children in England who were infected during the year examined by researchers survived, one study found.

In fact, there were fewer deaths among children due to the virus than initially suspected. Among the 61 child deaths linked to a positive Covid-19 test in England, 25 were actually caused by the illness, the study found.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-children-risk-of-covid-19-death-or-serious-illness-remain-extremely-low-new-studies-find-11625785260

[GodlessCommie]

Re: mask mandates... the only way to make it enforceable is to make everyone wear them. So yeah, thanks, antivaxxers, for screwing it for the rest of us in so many ways...

 

For those who suggest to 'open up and just let it rip', with a population where about 15% have had both shots and 35% having had at least one, an uncontrolled Delta outbreak would result in thousands of deaths.

How refreshing to see that there are countries full of people who see thousands of deaths as a problem. Here in the Land of the Free we just say "but the economy" or "fake news", and let them die.

[OtherJen]

Re: mask mandates... the only way to make it enforceable is to make everyone wear them. So yeah, thanks, antivaxxers, for screwing it for the rest of us in so many ways...

 

For those who suggest to 'open up and just let it rip', with a population where about 15% have had both shots and 35% having had at least one, an uncontrolled Delta outbreak would result in thousands of deaths.

How refreshing to see that there are countries full of people who see thousands of deaths as a problem. Here in the Land of the Free we just say "but the economy" or "fake news", and let them die.

While taking all kinds of steps to criminalize abortion because fetuses have beating hearts (ignoring that the 610,000 born US residents who died of COVID also had beating hearts).

[Channel-Z]

My metro area is returning to indoor masks this week, although the state attorney general is going to sue to stop the mandate. I feel deflated. It was nice seeing everyone smile for a couple of months.