How long can we wait while flattening the curve?

[frugalnacho]

So basically cry babies that aren't going to get vaccinated because some people choose to wear masks on their own faces outdoors when it may not actually be necessary? And intentionally engage in reckless and dangerous behavior to over compensate someone else's virtue signaling, I guess just out of spite? Talk about being a delicate snowflake.

That's all true, but let me make a quick analogy. I train a lot of engineers. Inevitably, we end up talking about some product/device/fix that they implemented that didn't work right because the users screwed up, didn't read the manual, didn't understand, tried to use it the old way, etc, etc.

You have to accept the world as it is, though. You're going to have untrained yahoos messing up no matter what. So you have to design for that, and make it really hard to install wrong/use wrong/whatever. Sometimes that means it's more expensive or less elegant or harder to design or more annoying. But that's what you have to do.

Rednecks who don't want a vaccine because it makes liberals happy are morons. But if telling them they don't have to wear masks once they're vaccinated (which they really don't, to be fair, and besides they're not wearing them anyway) is what it takes, that's what you do. Ostentatious displays of no-mask-wearing by vaccinated people actually might help get some of these folks off the fence.

-W

They did though.  The CDC has said you don't need to wear a mask outdoors if you're vaccinated.  And crybabies are uppity because some people still choose to wear them on their own face while outside. 

I think inside is a different matter, because people can't be trusted.  I think fully vaccinated people, in areas with low numbers of cases, not in large groups and close proximity to others could probably go maskless with not much risk.  But how do you know who is actually vaccinated?

[OtherJen]

So basically cry babies that aren't going to get vaccinated because some people choose to wear masks on their own faces outdoors when it may not actually be necessary? And intentionally engage in reckless and dangerous behavior to over compensate someone else's virtue signaling, I guess just out of spite? Talk about being a delicate snowflake.

That's all true, but let me make a quick analogy. I train a lot of engineers. Inevitably, we end up talking about some product/device/fix that they implemented that didn't work right because the users screwed up, didn't read the manual, didn't understand, tried to use it the old way, etc, etc.

You have to accept the world as it is, though. You're going to have untrained yahoos messing up no matter what. So you have to design for that, and make it really hard to install wrong/use wrong/whatever. Sometimes that means it's more expensive or less elegant or harder to design or more annoying. But that's what you have to do.

Rednecks who don't want a vaccine because it makes liberals happy are morons. But if telling them they don't have to wear masks once they're vaccinated (which they really don't, to be fair, and besides they're not wearing them anyway) is what it takes, that's what you do. Ostentatious displays of no-mask-wearing by vaccinated people actually might help get some of these folks off the fence.

-W

They did though.  The CDC has said you don't need to wear a mask outdoors if you're vaccinated.  And crybabies are uppity because some people still choose to wear them on their own face while outside. 

I think inside is a different matter, because people can't be trusted.  I think fully vaccinated people, in areas with low numbers of cases, not in large groups and close proximity to others could probably go maskless with not much risk.  But how do you know who is actually vaccinated?

That's the problem. I would be thrilled to show my vaccination card (completed as of today!) in lieu of wearing a mask. But the same crowd that threw very public and occasionally violent tantrums because they didn't want to follow mask requirements last year will be the same crowd throwing tantrums over "show proof of vax or mask up" rules set by businesses in future. Either way, apparently we all have to suffer because our society caters to overgrown toddlers.

[GuitarStv]

I said that wearing a mask outdoors in isolated areas reducing the spread of covid isn't supported by scientific evidence.

That's not what you said.  I double checked.  But now that you've added 'in isolated areas' I agree with you.  Wearing a mask outdoors though?  There is evidence to back doing that (in non-isolated) areas.

Science has shown us that mask wearing works to filter particles from the air - this increases safety from airborne diseases like covid (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2#Sec3][url]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2#Sec3[/url]) because when people breathe, the virus is aerosolized (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6382806/) in tiny droplets that escape into the air.  Wearing the mask indoors or out is irrelevant to those facts.  Mask wearing reduces the probability of catching covid.  Even if the odds of catching covid outdoors are super small (say 1/1,000,000,000) science tells us that the odds of catching covid outdoors with a mask on are still less than that.

Science also tells us that spread of the disease outdoors is very low.  https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ina.12766

among our 7324 identified cases in China with sufficient descriptions, only one outdoor outbreak involving two cases occurred in a village in Shangqiu, Henan. A 27‐year‐old man had a conversation outdoors with an individual who had returned from Wuhan on January 25 and had symptom onset on February 1. This outbreak involved only two cases.

The only recorded case there was transmission from two people who were in close proximity, so we know that the likelihood of a problem at a distance is extremely small - but science tells us that it's possible.


Most sane people would play the odds and forego wearing a mask outdoors.  I certainly do, as do the majority of other people I see.  The main exception seems to be when a person is going to be close to others (say, at a baseball game outdoors), waiting to get on a bus, going to go into a building soon, or walking down a very busy sidewalk.  If I drive to the grocery store, I usually put my mask on in the car - that's a convenience thing rather than a fear of covid thing.  It's harder to mask up while walking.



TLRD - Science actually does support the use of masks outdoors.  Not the use of masks outdoors in isolated areas though.  At least none that I could find.

[waltworks]

I think inside is a different matter, because people can't be trusted.  I think fully vaccinated people, in areas with low numbers of cases, not in large groups and close proximity to others could probably go maskless with not much risk.  But how do you know who is actually vaccinated?

The issue is, unless we convince people, you will by your own standards NEVER be able to stop wearing a mask (or start going to concerts or whatever you like to do). Nobody wins in that scenario. Bribe, pander, grovel... I don't care how we convince people, we have to do it.

I mean, I'm vaccinated, everyone I know around here also is, and hence I'm not worried about it anymore, so I will only wear one when required to. If by some miracle I get it, then miraculously also am contagious, and the person who gets it chose not to bother getting vaccinated... that's their ****ing problem. They can stay home from the library.

-W

[mizzourah2006]

I said that wearing a mask outdoors in isolated areas reducing the spread of covid isn't supported by scientific evidence.

That's not what you said.  I double checked.  But now that you've added 'in isolated areas' I agree with you.  Wearing a mask outdoors though?  There is evidence to back doing that (in non-isolated) areas.

Science has shown us that mask wearing works to filter particles from the air - this increases safety from airborne diseases like covid ([url]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2#Sec3]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2#Sec3][url]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2#Sec3[/url]) because when people breathe, the virus is aerosolized (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6382806/) in tiny droplets that escape into the air.  Wearing the mask indoors or out is irrelevant to those facts.  Mask wearing reduces the probability of catching covid.  Even if the odds of catching covid outdoors are super small (say 1/1,000,000,000) science tells us that the odds of catching covid outdoors with a mask on are still less than that.

Science also tells us that spread of the disease outdoors is very low.  https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ina.12766

among our 7324 identified cases in China with sufficient descriptions, only one outdoor outbreak involving two cases occurred in a village in Shangqiu, Henan. A 27‐year‐old man had a conversation outdoors with an individual who had returned from Wuhan on January 25 and had symptom onset on February 1. This outbreak involved only two cases.

The only recorded case there was transmission from two people who were in close proximity, so we know that the likelihood of a problem at a distance is extremely small - but science tells us that it's possible.


Most sane people would play the odds and forego wearing a mask outdoors.  I certainly do, as do the majority of other people I see.  The main exception seems to be when a person is going to be close to others (say, at a baseball game outdoors), waiting to get on a bus, going to go into a building soon, or walking down a very busy sidewalk.  If I drive to the grocery store, I usually put my mask on in the car - that's a convenience thing rather than a fear of covid thing.  It's harder to mask up while walking.



TLRD - Science actually does support the use of masks outdoors.  Not the use of masks outdoors in isolated areas though.  At least none that I could find.

That's fair, but I was responding to an individual who was responding to an individual about "unnecessary masking" and had quoted Monica Ghandi who was talking to people that say they still mask up most times while outside and another said they do sometimes while walking around alone. I was responding to that specifically. But you are right I didn't explicitly provide the context, I just thought it was inferred from the discussion I had responded to. That's my fault.

[OtherJen]

I think inside is a different matter, because people can't be trusted.  I think fully vaccinated people, in areas with low numbers of cases, not in large groups and close proximity to others could probably go maskless with not much risk.  But how do you know who is actually vaccinated?

The issue is, unless we convince people, you will by your own standards NEVER be able to stop wearing a mask (or start going to concerts or whatever you like to do). Nobody wins in that scenario. Bribe, pander, grovel... I don't care how we convince people, we have to do it.

I mean, I'm vaccinated, everyone I know around here also is, and hence I'm not worried about it anymore, so I will only wear one when required to. If by some miracle I get it, then miraculously also am contagious, and the person who gets it chose not to bother getting vaccinated... that's their ****ing problem. They can stay home from the library.

-W

All of this would be so much easier in a small town. I live in a county with 1.75 million residents. Only 35% of them are fully vaccinated. You are in a truly fortunate and unusual situation. I hope you realize that.

[waltworks]

All of this would be so much easier in a small town. I live in a county with 1.75 million residents. Only 35% of them are fully vaccinated. You are in a truly fortunate and unusual situation. I hope you realize that.

Agreed, we are incredibly fortunate (for many reasons) here.

Hopefully many places will get to the same status soon.

-W

[lutorm]

I mean, I'm vaccinated, everyone I know around here also is, and hence I'm not worried about it anymore, so I will only wear one when required to. If by some miracle I get it, then miraculously also am contagious, and the person who gets it chose not to bother getting vaccinated... that's their ****ing problem. They can stay home from the library.

I guess it's possible that you don't know anyone younger than 16, but I think that's factually untrue.

Are you seriously saying that kids shouldn't be allowed to use the library because you don't want to have a mask on while being around them?

[sailinlight]

I mean, I'm vaccinated, everyone I know around here also is, and hence I'm not worried about it anymore, so I will only wear one when required to. If by some miracle I get it, then miraculously also am contagious, and the person who gets it chose not to bother getting vaccinated... that's their ****ing problem. They can stay home from the library.

I guess it's possible that you don't know anyone younger than 16, but I think that's factually untrue.

Are you seriously saying that kids shouldn't be allowed to use the library because you don't want to have a mask on while being around them?

I'm pretty sure the point is that if you are worried about getting covid, then just get a vaccine and stop trying to shame people for not wearing a mask.

[GuitarStv]

I mean, I'm vaccinated, everyone I know around here also is, and hence I'm not worried about it anymore, so I will only wear one when required to. If by some miracle I get it, then miraculously also am contagious, and the person who gets it chose not to bother getting vaccinated... that's their ****ing problem. They can stay home from the library.

I guess it's possible that you don't know anyone younger than 16, but I think that's factually untrue.

Are you seriously saying that kids shouldn't be allowed to use the library because you don't want to have a mask on while being around them?

I'm pretty sure the point is that if you are worried about getting covid, then just get a vaccine and stop trying to shame people for not wearing a mask.

Right.  Which is maybe a fair argument to make when vaccines are available to everyone.  But no kids can get a vaccine right now - regardless of how concerned they or their parents are about getting covid.

[sailinlight]

I mean, I'm vaccinated, everyone I know around here also is, and hence I'm not worried about it anymore, so I will only wear one when required to. If by some miracle I get it, then miraculously also am contagious, and the person who gets it chose not to bother getting vaccinated... that's their ****ing problem. They can stay home from the library.

I guess it's possible that you don't know anyone younger than 16, but I think that's factually untrue.

Are you seriously saying that kids shouldn't be allowed to use the library because you don't want to have a mask on while being around them?

I'm pretty sure the point is that if you are worried about getting covid, then just get a vaccine and stop trying to shame people for not wearing a mask.

Right.  Which is maybe a fair argument to make when vaccines are available to everyone.  But no kids can get a vaccine right now - regardless of how concerned they or their parents are about getting covid.

Then don't go to the library if you're so worried. I'm scared of heights but I'm not suing the Grand Canyon National Park to put in railings along the Nankoweap Trail.

[waltworks]

Again, the evidence does not show that kids are in any particular danger. If you drive them to the library that part is probably more dangerous than being around a vaccinated adult (I rode my bike, but I digress). It might be safer than being around an unvaccinated adult.

If we were worried about kids, we would have run trials on them long ago with these vaccines. They're last in line for a reason, because they're in negligible danger. That is probably the only thing to be grateful for about this disease.

-W

[GuitarStv]

Again, the evidence does not show that kids are in any particular danger.

Which evidence is that exactly?

Kids are ultra low risk of dying.  Illness though?  That's not what the data suggests.

In the UK they're seeing about one in seven of children from 2 - 16 with long term problems associated with contracting Covid: (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/962830/s1079-ons-update-on-long-covid-prevalence-estimate.pdf)

This study from Italy highlights similar problems:

We assessed persistent symptoms in pediatric patients previously diagnosed with COVID-19. More than a half reported at least one persisting symptom even after 120 days since COVID-19, with 42.6% being impaired by these symptoms during daily activities. Symptoms like fatigue, muscle and joint pain, headache, insomnia, respiratory problems and palpitations were particularly frequent, as also described in adults.

The evidence that COVID-19 can have long-term impact children as well, including those with asymptomatic/paucisymptomatic COVID-19, highlight the need for pediatricians, mental health experts and policy makers of implementing measures to reduce impact of the pandemic on child’s health.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.23.21250375v1.full-text

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

Again, the evidence does not show that kids are in any particular danger.

Which evidence is that exactly?

Kids are ultra low risk of dying.  Illness though?  That's not what the data suggests.

In the UK they're seeing about one in seven of children from 2 - 16 with long term problems associated with contracting Covid: (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/962830/s1079-ons-update-on-long-covid-prevalence-estimate.pdf)

This study from Italy highlights similar problems:

We assessed persistent symptoms in pediatric patients previously diagnosed with COVID-19. More than a half reported at least one persisting symptom even after 120 days since COVID-19, with 42.6% being impaired by these symptoms during daily activities. Symptoms like fatigue, muscle and joint pain, headache, insomnia, respiratory problems and palpitations were particularly frequent, as also described in adults.

The evidence that COVID-19 can have long-term impact children as well, including those with asymptomatic/paucisymptomatic COVID-19, highlight the need for pediatricians, mental health experts and policy makers of implementing measures to reduce impact of the pandemic on child’s health.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.23.21250375v1.full-text

I'm not terribly impressed with those studies since there doesn't seem to be any comparison to a non-infected control group. Still waiting for something more like this for children before drawing stronger conclusions.

[scottish]

GuitarSteve has a point.    The long term effects of covid-19 seem to be a substantial problem.     I can tell you, chronic health issues really suck.   The worst part is that you don't know when or if you're going to get better.

It's going to be a while before the medical community agrees on how prevalent they are, but numbers like 20% seem to be pretty plausible.

[lutorm]

I mean, I'm vaccinated, everyone I know around here also is, and hence I'm not worried about it anymore, so I will only wear one when required to. If by some miracle I get it, then miraculously also am contagious, and the person who gets it chose not to bother getting vaccinated... that's their ****ing problem. They can stay home from the library.

I guess it's possible that you don't know anyone younger than 16, but I think that's factually untrue.

Are you seriously saying that kids shouldn't be allowed to use the library because you don't want to have a mask on while being around them?

I'm pretty sure the point is that if you are worried about getting covid, then just get a vaccine and stop trying to shame people for not wearing a mask.

Right.  Which is maybe a fair argument to make when vaccines are available to everyone.  But no kids can get a vaccine right now - regardless of how concerned they or their parents are about getting covid.

Then don't go to the library if you're so worried. I'm scared of heights but I'm not suing the Grand Canyon National Park to put in railings along the Nankoweap Trail.

You're moving the goalposts here.

I was responding to ww's assertion that "... the person who gets it chose not to bother getting vaccinated... that's their ****ing problem. They can stay home from the library" neglects that fact that there's a whole class of  persons that can not choose to get vaccinated now, so arguing that they've chosen to take that risk if they go to the library is illogical. He was making the claim that since he's done his part, and anyone else who's not vaccinated haven't chosen to do their part, he doesn't need to be concerned with their welfare.

Making the argument that "I think that the risk to kids is low, even unvaccinated, so their parents shouldn't care that I don't want to wear a mask even if they think the risk is non-negligible" is an entirely different argument, which departs from the crucial justification in the original argument that he wasn't offloading the risk onto others who hadn't already chosen to do their part.

[waltworks]

I've been coaching kids sports for the entire last year. Plenty of kids had positive covid tests (I'm sure hundreds in our community) during that time. I know of zero who had any meaningful symptoms, and none that have any that are ongoing now. Maybe there is some different variant out there that is affecting kids somewhere, but I just don't understand it, because around here the only reason they could even find kids with Covid is that they were testing family members after adults got sick.

So really, I don't think it's a real thing, at least here. I could be wrong, I guess, but around here the kids were in school and doing all their normal stuff all year and it was a big nothingburger.

Sounds like they'll have the chance for vaccines in a few months regardless, which is a good thing. Then I suppose we can move the goalposts again...

-W

[lutorm]

I've been coaching kids sports for the entire last year. Plenty of kids had positive covid tests (I'm sure hundreds in our community) during that time. I know of zero who had any meaningful symptoms, and none that have any that are ongoing now.

I personally know zero people who have had covid. That doesn't mean I think it's not affecting people, because I put more weight on what the science says. Yes, the science is frustratingly murky and changes continuously, but it's the best we have and it's still tons better than my personal anecdote.

I certainly hope we can be done with the masks when all the kids are vaccinated. But I'm worried there are enough asshats around that won't get it, or that enough people get infected worldwide that we'll be playing catchup to mutations for a long time.

The frustrating part about this pandemic is that it's (thankfully) not like some aerosol transmitted Ebola where we'd have people bleeding out everywhere, bodies literally piling up. It's just mild enough that the majority of people will be unaffected, and mild enough, and mitigated well enough, that many think it's overblown, but severe enough to have killed millions.

We were handed a very good opportunity to learn and prepare for the really bad shit that's likely to come at some point, but I'm afraid we've learned the wrong lesson.

[StashingAway]

So basically cry babies that aren't going to get vaccinated because some people choose to wear masks on their own faces outdoors when it may not actually be necessary? And intentionally engage in reckless and dangerous behavior to over compensate someone else's virtue signaling, I guess just out of spite? Talk about being a delicate snowflake.

I'd guess we see eye to eye on many (most) social issues, but it saddens me to see responses like this.

I would strongly recommend you read "The Righteous Mind" by Jonathan Heidt. He's a liberal Social Psychologist.

[Bloop Bloop Reloaded]

How many children have died worldwide from covid? The figure in Australia is 0.

In relation to the study which shows long-term effects at 14%, how does that compare to, say, influenza? All diseases will have some long-term effects especially in the absence of a control group with children.

[jehovasfitness23]

I'm not getting covid vaccinated unless it's mandatory (I'll probably get the vaccine right before our passports become useful again, since it'll be mandatory in order to travel). I don't get a flu vaccination ever, so I don't see the point in getting a covid vaccination either. That said, the situation in Australia is well under control so it's different from the States. Only over-50's and front line workers here are getting vaccinated.

the point to get it is to help protect others. signed someone that has never got the flu vaccine but sure as shit go the covid one

[jehovasfitness23]

I've been coaching kids sports for the entire last year. Plenty of kids had positive covid tests (I'm sure hundreds in our community) during that time. I know of zero who had any meaningful symptoms, and none that have any that are ongoing now. Maybe there is some different variant out there that is affecting kids somewhere, but I just don't understand it, because around here the only reason they could even find kids with Covid is that they were testing family members after adults got sick.

So really, I don't think it's a real thing, at least here. I could be wrong, I guess, but around here the kids were in school and doing all their normal stuff all year and it was a big nothingburger.

Sounds like they'll have the chance for vaccines in a few months regardless, which is a good thing. Then I suppose we can move the goalposts again...

-W

I'm not sure if you're aware, but kids have died and many have "long haul" symptoms. Just because a bear didn't attack you in the woods, doesn't mean carrying bear spray is a bad idea

[jehovasfitness23]

How many children have died worldwide from covid? The figure in Australia is 0.

In relation to the study which shows long-term effects at 14%, how does that compare to, say, influenza? All diseases will have some long-term effects especially in the absence of a control group with children.

In the US, far greater than 0

[OtherJen]

I've been coaching kids sports for the entire last year. Plenty of kids had positive covid tests (I'm sure hundreds in our community) during that time. I know of zero who had any meaningful symptoms, and none that have any that are ongoing now. Maybe there is some different variant out there that is affecting kids somewhere, but I just don't understand it, because around here the only reason they could even find kids with Covid is that they were testing family members after adults got sick.

So really, I don't think it's a real thing, at least here. I could be wrong, I guess, but around here the kids were in school and doing all their normal stuff all year and it was a big nothingburger.

Sounds like they'll have the chance for vaccines in a few months regardless, which is a good thing. Then I suppose we can move the goalposts again...

-W

I'm not sure if you're aware, but kids have died and many have "long haul" symptoms. Just because a bear didn't attack you in the woods, doesn't mean carrying bear spray is a bad idea

waltworks' situation only applies to small towns with high vaccination rates (i.e., not most of the US).

Certainly, kids are not dying of COVID at high rates. They seem to catch and transmit it, and a non-negligible percentage have become ill enough to require hospitalization, either from the acute symptoms or from subsequent multisystem inflammatory syndrome. Some level of caution seems prudent in most of the country, especially in populations with high rates of pediatric asthma.

[frugalnacho]

A couple weeks old, but news article from my state:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/michigan-record-breaking-number-children-have-been-hospitalized-covid-n1264986

[Wrenchturner]

At some point we have to start trusting strangers again. 

[frugalnacho]

Probably not while the pandemic is still raging though.

[Cool Friend]

At some point we have to start trusting strangers again.

No thanks!

[jrhampt]

Yeah, I don't think strangers have proved to be worthy of trust during this pandemic.  My sister just had one of her younger kids test positive for covid after two of her kids had two separate exposures in school this past week.  So it's still spreading in the community.  She and her husband are vaccinated, but now she has to deal with quarantining everyone while working at home full time and making sure they get their school work done and hoping the other two who are still too young to get vaccinated don't get it.  She's a bit worried about them since they both have a history of childhood asthma, and then to top it off, she's in the process of moving to another state.  I don't think even many of the people I know are worthy of trust during this pandemic, let alone strangers.  Because everyone thinks their "personal decisions" don't affect anyone else.

[frugalnacho]

The USA is still getting like 50k cases/day which is more than we were getting back in March/April 2020.  It's still very much spreading all over despite the wishful thinking of many declaring the pandemic over.

[mizzourah2006]

Yeah, I don't think strangers have proved to be worthy of trust during this pandemic.  My sister just had one of her younger kids test positive for covid after two of her kids had two separate exposures in school this past week.  So it's still spreading in the community.  She and her husband are vaccinated, but now she has to deal with quarantining everyone while working at home full time and making sure they get their school work done and hoping the other two who are still too young to get vaccinated don't get it.  She's a bit worried about them since they both have a history of childhood asthma, and then to top it off, she's in the process of moving to another state.  I don't think even many of the people I know are worthy of trust during this pandemic, let alone strangers.  Because everyone thinks their "personal decisions" don't affect anyone else.

So are you assuming that the kid(s) that spread it to your niece/nephew were going to school when knowingly being symptomatic of covid and thus their parents are not worthy of your trust?

[jrhampt]

I’m saying that everyone has different levels of risk tolerance.  At least with my friends, I have some idea what their risk tolerance is and how it matches up with mine.  And whether or not they’ve gotten vaccinated.  But I have to assume strangers are dangerous and/or  behaving dangerously.  I doubt that people would knowingly send their kids to school sick, but are some of them doing things that I consider risky?  Sure. 

[OtherJen]

I’m saying that everyone has different levels of risk tolerance.  At least with my friends, I have some idea what their risk tolerance is and how it matches up with mine.  And whether or not they’ve gotten vaccinated.  But I have to assume strangers are dangerous and/or  behaving dangerously.  I doubt that people would knowingly send their kids to school sick, but are some of them doing things that I consider risky?  Sure.

People have always sent their kids to school with symptoms, well before COVID. People also go to work with symptoms. Many may not have much other choice: they may not have sick leave or other childcare options.

[fuzzy math]

Inhaled corticosteroids (daily asthma maintenance inhalers) show a huge protective effect against serious COVID symptoms. So paradoxically asthmatics are at LESS risk for severe COVID than the general population (which is opposite nearly every other infectious respiratory condition out there).

Signed, someone who works at times in the COVID ward AND has a child with asthma

[Bloop Bloop Reloaded]

I'm not getting covid vaccinated unless it's mandatory (I'll probably get the vaccine right before our passports become useful again, since it'll be mandatory in order to travel). I don't get a flu vaccination ever, so I don't see the point in getting a covid vaccination either. That said, the situation in Australia is well under control so it's different from the States. Only over-50's and front line workers here are getting vaccinated.

the point to get it is to help protect others. signed someone that has never got the flu vaccine but sure as shit go the covid one

We have no local transmission so I'm not sure how getting it will help others. The risk is infinitesimally small.

[RetiredAt63]

I'm not getting covid vaccinated unless it's mandatory (I'll probably get the vaccine right before our passports become useful again, since it'll be mandatory in order to travel). I don't get a flu vaccination ever, so I don't see the point in getting a covid vaccination either. That said, the situation in Australia is well under control so it's different from the States. Only over-50's and front line workers here are getting vaccinated.

the point to get it is to help protect others. signed someone that has never got the flu vaccine but sure as shit go the covid one

We have no local transmission so I'm not sure how getting it will help others. The risk is infinitesimally small.

You are in Australia.  Your situation is so different from large chunks of the world that your experience is really only relevant to places that have similarly low numbers.  Be glad you are there and be glad your state and federal governments have coped so well.

Roughly 1/3 of the ICU patients in my city are from other cities that have no ICU space for them.  Pregnancy women are getting Covid and ending up in ICU, because they are more vulnetable.  It's the extreme but one baby was born by C-section because the mother was on a ventilator.

[the_fixer]

I'm not getting covid vaccinated unless it's mandatory (I'll probably get the vaccine right before our passports become useful again, since it'll be mandatory in order to travel). I don't get a flu vaccination ever, so I don't see the point in getting a covid vaccination either. That said, the situation in Australia is well under control so it's different from the States. Only over-50's and front line workers here are getting vaccinated.

the point to get it is to help protect others. signed someone that has never got the flu vaccine but sure as shit go the covid one

We have no local transmission so I'm not sure how getting it will help others. The risk is infinitesimally small.

What is going to happen when they start letting people in your country for business / leisure? Or when people from your country are allowed to travel for business / leisure?

If only people 50 and up are getting the vaccine seems like there will be plenty of hosts to spread around the rona and everything your country did to control it will be out the door.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

How many children have died worldwide from covid? The figure in Australia is 0.

In relation to the study which shows long-term effects at 14%, how does that compare to, say, influenza? All diseases will have some long-term effects especially in the absence of a control group with children.

In the US, far greater than 0

According to the CDC, the number of covid deaths for 0-17 years in the US is 282 as of 5/1 (which is ~1/150th of the deaths from all causes in that age group over the same time-frame).

[frugalnacho]

I'm not getting covid vaccinated unless it's mandatory (I'll probably get the vaccine right before our passports become useful again, since it'll be mandatory in order to travel). I don't get a flu vaccination ever, so I don't see the point in getting a covid vaccination either. That said, the situation in Australia is well under control so it's different from the States. Only over-50's and front line workers here are getting vaccinated.

the point to get it is to help protect others. signed someone that has never got the flu vaccine but sure as shit go the covid one

We have no local transmission so I'm not sure how getting it will help others. The risk is infinitesimally small.

You are in Australia.  Your situation is so different from large chunks of the world that your experience is really only relevant to places that have similarly low numbers.  Be glad you are there and be glad your state and federal governments have coped so well.

Roughly 1/3 of the ICU patients in my city are from other cities that have no ICU space for them.  Pregnancy women are getting Covid and ending up in ICU, because they are more vulnetable.  It's the extreme but one baby was born by C-section because the mother was on a ventilator.

Australia is around 30k cases and 900 deaths in total.  The county I live in is at 114k and 2.2k; The neighboring county I work in is at 159k and 4.8k.  Combined that's roughly 9X the number of case and 7.5X the number of deaths in 1/2000th of the area. 


Also people are definitely sending kids to school with symptoms, and people are still working with symptoms, just like they did before.  At least one person I know of got their shot while they were positive and supposed to be quarantining.  A disturbingly large portion of the population still believes that it's no big deal, no worse than the common cold. 

[Bloop Bloop Reloaded]

I'm not getting covid vaccinated unless it's mandatory (I'll probably get the vaccine right before our passports become useful again, since it'll be mandatory in order to travel). I don't get a flu vaccination ever, so I don't see the point in getting a covid vaccination either. That said, the situation in Australia is well under control so it's different from the States. Only over-50's and front line workers here are getting vaccinated.

the point to get it is to help protect others. signed someone that has never got the flu vaccine but sure as shit go the covid one

We have no local transmission so I'm not sure how getting it will help others. The risk is infinitesimally small.

What is going to happen when they start letting people in your country for business / leisure? Or when people from your country are allowed to travel for business / leisure?

If only people 50 and up are getting the vaccine seems like there will be plenty of hosts to spread around the rona and everything your country did to control it will be out the door.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think the simplest solution is to require anyone who wants to travel internationally (in or out) to be required to be vaccinated. No exceptions.

[marty998]

I'm not getting covid vaccinated unless it's mandatory (I'll probably get the vaccine right before our passports become useful again, since it'll be mandatory in order to travel). I don't get a flu vaccination ever, so I don't see the point in getting a covid vaccination either. That said, the situation in Australia is well under control so it's different from the States. Only over-50's and front line workers here are getting vaccinated.

the point to get it is to help protect others. signed someone that has never got the flu vaccine but sure as shit go the covid one

We have no local transmission so I'm not sure how getting it will help others. The risk is infinitesimally small.

What is going to happen when they start letting people in your country for business / leisure? Or when people from your country are allowed to travel for business / leisure?

If only people 50 and up are getting the vaccine seems like there will be plenty of hosts to spread around the rona and everything your country did to control it will be out the door.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think the simplest solution is to require anyone who wants to travel internationally (in or out) to be required to be vaccinated. No exceptions.

Yes and when a fully vaccinated person returns to Sydney (as was the case this week) and still tests positive for Covid then what?

They can still pass it on.

You need to get everyone vaccinated. You included. Not just the ones flying in and out.

[the_fixer]

I'm not getting covid vaccinated unless it's mandatory (I'll probably get the vaccine right before our passports become useful again, since it'll be mandatory in order to travel). I don't get a flu vaccination ever, so I don't see the point in getting a covid vaccination either. That said, the situation in Australia is well under control so it's different from the States. Only over-50's and front line workers here are getting vaccinated.

the point to get it is to help protect others. signed someone that has never got the flu vaccine but sure as shit go the covid one

We have no local transmission so I'm not sure how getting it will help others. The risk is infinitesimally small.

What is going to happen when they start letting people in your country for business / leisure? Or when people from your country are allowed to travel for business / leisure?

If only people 50 and up are getting the vaccine seems like there will be plenty of hosts to spread around the rona and everything your country did to control it will be out the door.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think the simplest solution is to require anyone who wants to travel internationally (in or out) to be required to be vaccinated. No exceptions.

I think you would still end up with transmission at some point and it would run rampant in an unvaccinated population that has little natural immunity.

Best wishes it has been a rough year + here in the US (and most of the rest of the world) and I hope you do not have to experience it especially after working so hard to contain it over the last year.

It would be a shame


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[RetiredAt63]

I'm not getting covid vaccinated unless it's mandatory (I'll probably get the vaccine right before our passports become useful again, since it'll be mandatory in order to travel). I don't get a flu vaccination ever, so I don't see the point in getting a covid vaccination either. That said, the situation in Australia is well under control so it's different from the States. Only over-50's and front line workers here are getting vaccinated.

the point to get it is to help protect others. signed someone that has never got the flu vaccine but sure as shit go the covid one

We have no local transmission so I'm not sure how getting it will help others. The risk is infinitesimally small.

What is going to happen when they start letting people in your country for business / leisure? Or when people from your country are allowed to travel for business / leisure?

If only people 50 and up are getting the vaccine seems like there will be plenty of hosts to spread around the rona and everything your country did to control it will be out the door.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think the simplest solution is to require anyone who wants to travel internationally (in or out) to be required to be vaccinated. No exceptions.

The international travel vaccination requirement is coming or already here.  But that is only the tip of the iceberg.  The countries that have had small caseloads are very vulnerable to undetected cases arriving, especially once more people are allowed in.  And without vaccination there is no herd immunity. 

We are just lucky that this is not more transmissible and more nasty.  We (the world) were woefullly unprepared.

My world-view on this is definitely coloured by the fact that my Dad was orphaned as a little child by the Spanish Flu.  Both parents gone in under 6 months.  I know how devastating pandemics can be.

[Bloop Bloop Reloaded]

I'm not getting covid vaccinated unless it's mandatory (I'll probably get the vaccine right before our passports become useful again, since it'll be mandatory in order to travel). I don't get a flu vaccination ever, so I don't see the point in getting a covid vaccination either. That said, the situation in Australia is well under control so it's different from the States. Only over-50's and front line workers here are getting vaccinated.

the point to get it is to help protect others. signed someone that has never got the flu vaccine but sure as shit go the covid one

We have no local transmission so I'm not sure how getting it will help others. The risk is infinitesimally small.

What is going to happen when they start letting people in your country for business / leisure? Or when people from your country are allowed to travel for business / leisure?

If only people 50 and up are getting the vaccine seems like there will be plenty of hosts to spread around the rona and everything your country did to control it will be out the door.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think the simplest solution is to require anyone who wants to travel internationally (in or out) to be required to be vaccinated. No exceptions.

Yes and when a fully vaccinated person returns to Sydney (as was the case this week) and still tests positive for Covid then what?

They can still pass it on.

You need to get everyone vaccinated. You included. Not just the ones flying in and out.

I'll get vaccinated in (a long) time, but I'm the lowest of the low priority (healthy, young, live alone and little contact with high-risk people). There are not even enough doses to vaccinate the at-risk population let alone the extremely low risk population. The cost benefit is not there right now.

Vaccination is like car insurance. The people who need it most (people who drive a lot + bad drivers) are the ones who should prioritise getting it.

[OtherJen]

Meanwhile, in the US: U.S. states are turning down hundreds of thousands of doses as demand plummets (NY Times)

[fuzzy math]

The USA is still getting like 50k cases/day which is more than we were getting back in March/April 2020.  It's still very much spreading all over despite the wishful thinking of many declaring the pandemic over.

This sort of thinking is flawed. The US had WAY MORE cases last March / April than now. If you look at the death numbers and the percentages of New Yorkers who ended up with antibodies, its crystal clear that we had hundreds of thousands of uncaptured / untested cases in those 2 months alone. The infrastructure was not in place and available to test people at that time.

[the_fixer]

The USA is still getting like 50k cases/day which is more than we were getting back in March/April 2020.  It's still very much spreading all over despite the wishful thinking of many declaring the pandemic over.

This sort of thinking is flawed. The US had WAY MORE cases last March / April. If you look at the death numbers and the percentages of New Yorkers who ended up with antibodies, its crystal clear that we had hundreds of thousands of uncaptured / untested cases. The infrastructure was not in place and available to test people at that time.

While I agree that we do not know the true case counts from early in the pandemic due to ramping up testing and ETC I do not think you can compare death counts now VS then as a large portion of the vulnerable population has been vaccinated or passed away.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[fuzzy math]

The USA is still getting like 50k cases/day which is more than we were getting back in March/April 2020.  It's still very much spreading all over despite the wishful thinking of many declaring the pandemic over.

This sort of thinking is flawed. The US had WAY MORE cases last March / April. If you look at the death numbers and the percentages of New Yorkers who ended up with antibodies, its crystal clear that we had hundreds of thousands of uncaptured / untested cases. The infrastructure was not in place and available to test people at that time.

While I agree that we do not know the true case counts from early in the pandemic due to ramping up testing and ETC I do not think you can compare death counts now VS then as a large portion of the vulnerable population has been vaccinated or passed away.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I have repeatedly posted in these 125 pages of chat (as have many others) studies based on Infection rates, stool samples in the sewers, early infection stories in CA (January), immunity studies in communities etc that confirm what I asserted above. I'm not going to sort through all of it again for you or Nacho's benefit, as you can click through yourselves, but I assure you the data is right here and his (as well as your) thinking continues to be flawed in the face of much data.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

The USA is still getting like 50k cases/day which is more than we were getting back in March/April 2020.  It's still very much spreading all over despite the wishful thinking of many declaring the pandemic over.

This sort of thinking is flawed. The US had WAY MORE cases last March / April. If you look at the death numbers and the percentages of New Yorkers who ended up with antibodies, its crystal clear that we had hundreds of thousands of uncaptured / untested cases. The infrastructure was not in place and available to test people at that time.

While I agree that we do not know the true case counts from early in the pandemic due to ramping up testing and ETC I do not think you can compare death counts now VS then as a large portion of the vulnerable population has been vaccinated or passed away.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

There are reasonable estimates of the early phases of the outbreak in the US. For example, it is estimated infections/day peaked in the US's first wave at ~275K in March 2020, whereas using a prevalence ratio of 2.5 infections/case for current case counts, the US is now having a little over 100K infections/day.

[the_fixer]

The USA is still getting like 50k cases/day which is more than we were getting back in March/April 2020.  It's still very much spreading all over despite the wishful thinking of many declaring the pandemic over.

This sort of thinking is flawed. The US had WAY MORE cases last March / April. If you look at the death numbers and the percentages of New Yorkers who ended up with antibodies, its crystal clear that we had hundreds of thousands of uncaptured / untested cases. The infrastructure was not in place and available to test people at that time.

While I agree that we do not know the true case counts from early in the pandemic due to ramping up testing and ETC I do not think you can compare death counts now VS then as a large portion of the vulnerable population has been vaccinated or passed away.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I have repeatedly posted in these 125 pages of chat (as have many others) studies based on Infection rates, stool samples in the sewers, early infection stories in CA (January), immunity studies in communities etc that confirm what I asserted above. I'm not going to sort through all of it again for you or Nacho's benefit, as you can click through yourselves, but I assure you the data is right here and his (as well as your) thinking continues to be flawed in the face of much data.

Ok that was a bit aggressive...

One of the metrics you referenced was deaths then vs now.

I simply said I do not think you can compare deaths a year ago to deaths today due to vaccination reducing mortality.

I agree that case counts were much higher than were reported at the start so not sure what you take issue with?

Shrug


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk