Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 675428 times)

Bloop Bloop Reloaded

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5550 on: February 15, 2021, 12:44:41 AM »
It sounds like Auckland, New Zealand is shutting down for at least the next 3 days.    The govt has detected 3 cases of COVID in the city and they want to know which variant and their origin.

Imagine having only 3 cases in a city of 1.6M...

New Zealand is scheduled to start vaccinations in one more week.

Three community spread cases. That suggests others have flown/are flying under the radar. I expect longer shutdowns.
Probably not. In Australia we’ve been detecting the odd case that’s escaped from quarantine, shutting down for a few days and reopening. It seems to have worked in several of our major cities - Perth, Adelaide, Brisbane... and it’s currently happening in Melbourne (5 day lockdown for 5 cases (at the time) in a city of 4.3 million). Everyone gets tested, all possible contact places are advertised, and people told to quarantine for 14 days if they’ve been there. Once they’re satisfied that contacts have all been identified and tested, the city reopens. It’s very sad that the current five day lockdown includes Valentine’s Day, Chinese New Year and the Australian open tennis tournament.

Here's what I find really puzzling. Let's assume that there's always some inherent risk of the virus slipping through from a returned traveller to a quarantine worker regardless of safety precautions (a pretty safe assumption I think given what we know of the virus).

We are not willing to
a) stage the hotel quarantine away from the city (in a less populated area);
b) ask hotel quarantine workers to self-quarantine to any extent at all;

However, as soon as we get 1 community transmission case (which obviously originates from the hotel quarantine worker/family member), we are willing to ask the entire state, including less populated areas, to quarantine to a very high extent.

It seems that on balance it would make a lot more sense to either put the quarantine hotels and their workers in less populated areas or pay workers more money and make them fully quarantine, like fly in, fly out workers. To the extent that people say "oh that's so onerous", you forget that we are now imposing an even more onerous lockdown on 5 million people across the entire state.


alsoknownasDean

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5551 on: February 15, 2021, 01:08:42 AM »
In a number of weeks all the hotel quarantine staff should be vaccinated, which will help things.

One risk of putting hotel quarantine in regional areas would be with response to people who test positive. There's the risk that if someone has to go into ICU, they end up being airlifted to a hospital in a capital city if the regional hospital doesn't have the facilities or staff to handle COVID-19 patients.

There was an article on The Age website today about a proposal to put hotel quarantine at Avalon Airport, but it's close enough to Melbourne and Geelong that most of the workers would be coming from one of those two cities. If you're too close to the major centres, you'll be getting staff from those cities, and defeating the purpose, but if you're too far away there may not be the medical facilities available.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2021, 01:16:03 AM by alsoknownasDean »

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5552 on: February 15, 2021, 06:17:30 AM »
Why not use members of the military to staff the quarantine hotels? Young, healthy people would be at little risk of serious effects from Covid, and they wouldn't be taking the virus home to a big family, as they could be stationed to just live at the hotels for months at a time...

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5553 on: February 15, 2021, 06:24:14 AM »
Why not use members of the military to staff the quarantine hotels? Young, healthy people would be at little risk of serious effects from Covid, and they wouldn't be taking the virus home to a big family, as they could be stationed to just live at the hotels for months at a time...
The military won’t do this.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5554 on: February 15, 2021, 06:29:17 AM »
Why not use members of the military to staff the quarantine hotels? Young, healthy people would be at little risk of serious effects from Covid, and they wouldn't be taking the virus home to a big family, as they could be stationed to just live at the hotels for months at a time...
The military won’t do this.
Why wouldn't the military be willing to defend the country by helping to fight against Covid?

Bloop Bloop Reloaded

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5555 on: February 15, 2021, 07:41:28 AM »
Or just pay everyone $4k per week instead of $1k a week to work in quarantine security. You'll get a flood of applicants who are happy to do 2 month shifts at a time, eating and sleeping in the quarantine hotel and not seeing their families.

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5556 on: February 15, 2021, 01:24:09 PM »
Why not use members of the military to staff the quarantine hotels? Young, healthy people would be at little risk of serious effects from Covid, and they wouldn't be taking the virus home to a big family, as they could be stationed to just live at the hotels for months at a time...
The military won’t do this.
Why wouldn't the military be willing to defend the country by helping to fight against Covid?
They seem to be ok with supervising quarantine workers, but not with doing the work. It’s possibly political, since quarantine is state responsibility and military are federal responsibility. Almost everyone in quarantine is from overseas. Although access to and from Australia has been severely limited, we still have many citizens desperately trying to get back from overseas, and the federal government is paying airlines to fly people back (this is even more difficult when hubs in the Middle East suddenly ban flights from European countries due to new variations of the virus - Australia has always been the end of the line).

However, the military also must be stretched thin at the moment. It’s fire season, and Western Australia has had very bad fires, so they’d be helping there. There’s also been a number of places with severe flooding. They also would be involved in airport security with the repatriation flights...

middo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5557 on: February 15, 2021, 01:29:55 PM »
Why not use members of the military to staff the quarantine hotels? Young, healthy people would be at little risk of serious effects from Covid, and they wouldn't be taking the virus home to a big family, as they could be stationed to just live at the hotels for months at a time...
The military won’t do this.
Why wouldn't the military be willing to defend the country by helping to fight against Covid?
They seem to be ok with supervising quarantine workers, but not with doing the work. It’s possibly political, since quarantine is state responsibility and military are federal responsibility. Almost everyone in quarantine is from overseas. Although access to and from Australia has been severely limited, we still have many citizens desperately trying to get back from overseas, and the federal government is paying airlines to fly people back (this is even more difficult when hubs in the Middle East suddenly ban flights from European countries due to new variations of the virus - Australia has always been the end of the line).

However, the military also must be stretched thin at the moment. It’s fire season, and Western Australia has had very bad fires, so they’d be helping there. There’s also been a number of places with severe flooding. They also would be involved in airport security with the repatriation flights...

Sorry deborah, I need to correct you.  Under section 51 (x) of the constitution, quarantine is clearly a Federal responsibility.  The only reason the states are doing it is because our Federal government has refused to set up quarantine facilities themselves.

I am very glad they did, as a local elimination policy was never on the radar of the Federal government.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5558 on: February 15, 2021, 01:33:13 PM »
Why not use members of the military to staff the quarantine hotels? Young, healthy people would be at little risk of serious effects from Covid, and they wouldn't be taking the virus home to a big family, as they could be stationed to just live at the hotels for months at a time...
The military won’t do this.
Why wouldn't the military be willing to defend the country by helping to fight against Covid?

Military training is different than police or security guard training.  In the past, issues have arisen when people forget this.

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5559 on: February 15, 2021, 01:39:49 PM »
Why not use members of the military to staff the quarantine hotels? Young, healthy people would be at little risk of serious effects from Covid, and they wouldn't be taking the virus home to a big family, as they could be stationed to just live at the hotels for months at a time...
The military won’t do this.
Why wouldn't the military be willing to defend the country by helping to fight against Covid?
They seem to be ok with supervising quarantine workers, but not with doing the work. It’s possibly political, since quarantine is state responsibility and military are federal responsibility. Almost everyone in quarantine is from overseas. Although access to and from Australia has been severely limited, we still have many citizens desperately trying to get back from overseas, and the federal government is paying airlines to fly people back (this is even more difficult when hubs in the Middle East suddenly ban flights from European countries due to new variations of the virus - Australia has always been the end of the line).

However, the military also must be stretched thin at the moment. It’s fire season, and Western Australia has had very bad fires, so they’d be helping there. There’s also been a number of places with severe flooding. They also would be involved in airport security with the repatriation flights...

Sorry deborah, I need to correct you.  Under section 51 (x) of the constitution, quarantine is clearly a Federal responsibility.  The only reason the states are doing it is because our Federal government has refused to set up quarantine facilities themselves.

I am very glad they did, as a local elimination policy was never on the radar of the Federal government.
As with many things, the federal government has legislative powers while the states are actually responsible for doing the work.

https://www.loc.gov/law/help/health-emergencies/australia.php
« Last Edit: February 15, 2021, 01:41:21 PM by deborah »

middo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5560 on: February 15, 2021, 09:28:29 PM »
Why not use members of the military to staff the quarantine hotels? Young, healthy people would be at little risk of serious effects from Covid, and they wouldn't be taking the virus home to a big family, as they could be stationed to just live at the hotels for months at a time...
The military won’t do this.
Why wouldn't the military be willing to defend the country by helping to fight against Covid?
They seem to be ok with supervising quarantine workers, but not with doing the work. It’s possibly political, since quarantine is state responsibility and military are federal responsibility. Almost everyone in quarantine is from overseas. Although access to and from Australia has been severely limited, we still have many citizens desperately trying to get back from overseas, and the federal government is paying airlines to fly people back (this is even more difficult when hubs in the Middle East suddenly ban flights from European countries due to new variations of the virus - Australia has always been the end of the line).

However, the military also must be stretched thin at the moment. It’s fire season, and Western Australia has had very bad fires, so they’d be helping there. There’s also been a number of places with severe flooding. They also would be involved in airport security with the repatriation flights...

Sorry deborah, I need to correct you.  Under section 51 (x) of the constitution, quarantine is clearly a Federal responsibility.  The only reason the states are doing it is because our Federal government has refused to set up quarantine facilities themselves.

I am very glad they did, as a local elimination policy was never on the radar of the Federal government.
As with many things, the federal government has legislative powers while the states are actually responsible for doing the work.

https://www.loc.gov/law/help/health-emergencies/australia.php


States are responsible for the public health aspects, but not for quarantine.  They have taken it on as part of public health, but it is a specific issue the Federal government has decided to ignore.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5561 on: February 16, 2021, 06:05:18 AM »
Why not use members of the military to staff the quarantine hotels? Young, healthy people would be at little risk of serious effects from Covid, and they wouldn't be taking the virus home to a big family, as they could be stationed to just live at the hotels for months at a time...
The military won’t do this.
Why wouldn't the military be willing to defend the country by helping to fight against Covid?

Military training is different than police or security guard training.  In the past, issues have arisen when people forget this.
U.S. National Guard (As well as the Coast Guard) are both trained and function as federal law enforcement officers (and not subject to Posse Comitatus). I don't know if Aus or Canada have the equivalent within their military but if not can probably function in a national emergency as one.

ETA our National Guard is currently giving the vaccines to people at Federal FEMA sites. And guarding stuff ;-).

Most of the National Guard is not trained in any way for law enforcement. There are Military Police units but that's maybe 10,000 out of hundreds of thousands. Members of the National Guard can be granted police powers in certain circumstances, but it's rarely done because of a lack of training and a completely different mindset between military and police operations. In most cases where the National Guard has been used domestically (i.e. responding to riots or performing border protection missions), they aren't granted police powers. They're usually working in conjunction with the local police or federal agents (Border Patrol for instance) who would handle that aspect.   

The Coast Guard is different in that they have a need for police powers that they use on a daily basis for things like anti-smuggling. In the National Guard there is a small contingent in every state (as far as I know) that works in a similar capacity in the Counter-Drug Surveillance program. However, this might only be a couple dozen people and they usually work to use unique military capabilities like radar, helicopters, and signals intelligence platforms that state and local law enforcement lack.

Guarding stuff is a pretty basic military mission on the other hand. Literally something you start doing at basic training even if it's just with a flashlight and guarding the other people in your unit while they sleep.

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5562 on: February 16, 2021, 07:48:10 AM »
National Guard troops have been helping in extended care facilities in my state. It's not police work, but they've been handling administrative stuff and check in/screening processes. And having them handle those tasks has freed up medical staff to deal with patient care while also being a buffer to help offset reduced staffing for the normal admins that might be out of work.

jrhampt

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5563 on: February 16, 2021, 07:59:34 AM »
National Guard troops have been helping in extended care facilities in my state. It's not police work, but they've been handling administrative stuff and check in/screening processes. And having them handle those tasks has freed up medical staff to deal with patient care while also being a buffer to help offset reduced staffing for the normal admins that might be out of work.

They've been working the covid testing site near me.

kenmoremmm

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5564 on: February 16, 2021, 11:34:21 PM »
with the plummeting number of cases nationally, is there a chance that the new strains, which are theoretically supposed to surpass the original strain, are not detectable via current testing protocol?

similarly, even though the death tolls are decreasing, could cause of death due to covid be missed b/c of the new strains?

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5565 on: February 17, 2021, 12:39:25 AM »
with the plummeting number of cases nationally, is there a chance that the new strains, which are theoretically supposed to surpass the original strain, are not detectable via current testing protocol?

One narrative seems to be that the new and (potentiall) more contaigous strains are spreading "silently" and over time taking over, so you can have a net decrease in cases for some time for the count to rise again once the reduction in the "old" gets bypassed by increase in "new" strains.

At least that's the general worry on this side of the pond. This is also why the powers that be think our case count is only flattening out at mom and doesn't continue the rather sharp downward trend seen a bit earlier.

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5566 on: February 17, 2021, 04:33:14 AM »
with the plummeting number of cases nationally, is there a chance that the new strains, which are theoretically supposed to surpass the original strain, are not detectable via current testing protocol?

similarly, even though the death tolls are decreasing, could cause of death due to covid be missed b/c of the new strains?

It's not just cases though. Total hospitalizations are down too (at least in my state). So if the variants are spreading undetected, they don't seem to be making many people sick enough to seek treatment which sounds like a big shoulder shrug to me relative to what's occurred in the last year.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5567 on: February 17, 2021, 05:22:06 AM »
Why not use members of the military to staff the quarantine hotels? Young, healthy people would be at little risk of serious effects from Covid, and they wouldn't be taking the virus home to a big family, as they could be stationed to just live at the hotels for months at a time...
The military won’t do this.
Why wouldn't the military be willing to defend the country by helping to fight against Covid?

Military training is different than police or security guard training.  In the past, issues have arisen when people forget this.
U.S. National Guard (As well as the Coast Guard) are both trained and function as federal law enforcement officers (and not subject to Posse Comitatus). I don't know if Aus or Canada have the equivalent within their military but if not can probably function in a national emergency as one.

ETA our National Guard is currently giving the vaccines to people at Federal FEMA sites. And guarding stuff ;-).

Most of the National Guard is not trained in any way for law enforcement. There are Military Police units but that's maybe 10,000 out of hundreds of thousands. Members of the National Guard can be granted police powers in certain circumstances, but it's rarely done because of a lack of training and a completely different mindset between military and police operations. In most cases where the National Guard has been used domestically (i.e. responding to riots or performing border protection missions), they aren't granted police powers. They're usually working in conjunction with the local police or federal agents (Border Patrol for instance) who would handle that aspect.   

The Coast Guard is different in that they have a need for police powers that they use on a daily basis for things like anti-smuggling. In the National Guard there is a small contingent in every state (as far as I know) that works in a similar capacity in the Counter-Drug Surveillance program. However, this might only be a couple dozen people and they usually work to use unique military capabilities like radar, helicopters, and signals intelligence platforms that state and local law enforcement lack.

Guarding stuff is a pretty basic military mission on the other hand. Literally something you start doing at basic training even if it's just with a flashlight and guarding the other people in your unit while they sleep.
Oh I didn't know that. I was in the Coast Guard and often worked with National Guard where they did policing duties so figured that they had formal law enforcement training/schooling and responsibilities like us. They seemed pretty proficient at it though so probably wasn't too much of a difference. I transitioned to a LEO-type civilian government job after I got out and also worked with some National Guard troops who seemed very much like professionally trained LEO's.

Something to keep in mind is there's usually a lot of police officers that also serve in the National Guard. In my last unit of 130 I had at least 10 guys that were law enforcement plus a few more that worked in prisons. That's in an Infantry unit though - which tends to attract a lot of law enforcement since that's one of the few civilian jobs that type of training translates too - as opposed to a mechanic, truck driver, etc. 

jehovasfitness23

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5568 on: February 17, 2021, 05:53:03 AM »
And just like that... Dems came into power and COVID disappeared in the US.  Wouldn't that be some juicy info to feed the tinfoil hat conspiracy theorists?  Ugh...

Not gonna lie, the thought though I realize not real did cross my mind.

That said, I also wonder how much testing has decreased since I know of a few sites that closed testing to instead give vaccines.

Thus, I'm more interested in hospitalizations and deaths, both going down, but last week we were still over 3k/day.

All that said, back to your point. The medias shift on the school opening debate during Trump vs now with Biden is staggering. At first it was all keep em closed, now they find some evidence they can re-open all the while cases were still thru the roof and deaths over 4k/day.

MayDay

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5569 on: February 17, 2021, 06:21:09 AM »
Jehovah's fitness, does your state report the number of tests? Mine does and testing had a Christmas peak but has stayed very steady after that despite cases dropping.

Less talk about cases seems more likely related to lower cases than trying to cover something up. No need to talk it to death when they are dropping, compared to when we are out of hospital beds.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5570 on: February 17, 2021, 08:00:42 AM »
I'm encouraged cases are dropping so much faster then they rose.

7 day rolling average of ~80k in late October to ~250k mid January was 2.75 months vs only one month to drop back to 80k.

If that trend continues by Mid March things should be looking much better!!

Also my wife (teacher in MD) is supposed to be getting her first Vaccine shot this afternoon; with the 2nd scheduled ~ March 10th.

Woohoo :)

chemistk

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5571 on: February 17, 2021, 08:23:33 AM »
Jehovah's fitness, does your state report the number of tests? Mine does and testing had a Christmas peak but has stayed very steady after that despite cases dropping.

Less talk about cases seems more likely related to lower cases than trying to cover something up. No need to talk it to death when they are dropping, compared to when we are out of hospital beds.

Further to that point, much of the testing that is being performed is voluntary - people who are feeling ill or may have been exposed are going to go get tested not because they want to for fun but because they need to. There are plenty of people who are required to be tested on a regular basis, but I'd wager the number of voluntary tests far outpaces the mandatory tests.

So then the logic would seem consistent - fewer infections/exposures prompting fewer people to go out and get tested. The demand is shrinking, so the testing rates would fall commensurately.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5572 on: February 17, 2021, 08:32:07 AM »
My opinion (and of course opinions are like armpits...) is that from having so many cases, we now have enough community resistance that the virus isn’t moving as fast. We also had a mini drop from the holiday peak and then the vaccination programs started carrying slack when the holiday peak drop would have leveled off.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5573 on: February 19, 2021, 10:44:55 AM »
Cases and deaths in the US are now in a pretty sharp decline. At least some of that, of course, is due to vaccinations. 41M people have received at least one dose and daily deaths right now are currently beating the modeled consensus.

Biden and Fauci are still playing on expectations. That is, they're slow to recognize good news and setting very beatable targets. This frustrates me as a data person who wants to be shot straight 100% of the time, but Biden hasn't had a 50 year career in national public service by being bad at expectation setting I suppose.

Anyway, same old same old. Wear your masks. WFH if you can. Avoid gatherings if you can. Get tested if you're exposed. Isolate if you're sick. Get the vaccine as soon as you can.

MayDay

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5574 on: February 19, 2021, 11:00:48 AM »
Cases and deaths in the US are now in a pretty sharp decline. At least some of that, of course, is due to vaccinations. 41M people have received at least one dose and daily deaths right now are currently beating the modeled consensus.

Biden and Fauci are still playing on expectations. That is, they're slow to recognize good news and setting very beatable targets. This frustrates me as a data person who wants to be shot straight 100% of the time, but Biden hasn't had a 50 year career in national public service by being bad at expectation setting I suppose.

Anyway, same old same old. Wear your masks. WFH if you can. Avoid gatherings if you can. Get tested if you're exposed. Isolate if you're sick. Get the vaccine as soon as you can.

As an engineer who is always setting slightly unachievable targets, I don't disagree. But the early rollout of vaccines was such a cluster that I think they are right to set the bar lower. My logical side understood the early bumps but my mental health was not good anyway... People are barely coping and it's better to underpromise and overdeliver on this IMO. But the key is to slightly underpromise!

dandarc

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5575 on: February 19, 2021, 11:06:12 AM »
Cases and deaths in the US are now in a pretty sharp decline. At least some of that, of course, is due to vaccinations. 41M people have received at least one dose and daily deaths right now are currently beating the modeled consensus.

Biden and Fauci are still playing on expectations. That is, they're slow to recognize good news and setting very beatable targets. This frustrates me as a data person who wants to be shot straight 100% of the time, but Biden hasn't had a 50 year career in national public service by being bad at expectation setting I suppose.

Anyway, same old same old. Wear your masks. WFH if you can. Avoid gatherings if you can. Get tested if you're exposed. Isolate if you're sick. Get the vaccine as soon as you can.
Similar to the grind-it-out phase of building towards FI - managing the pandemic at this point is boring as hell. And yet the message needs to be reinforced over and over by our leaders so we don't collectively slip too badly. Admirable job of coming up with something to talk about that will lead to perceived (and actual) success when it is fundamentally so boring - there isn't even novelty to fall back on a year into this.

former player

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5576 on: February 19, 2021, 11:12:43 AM »
Numbers of confirmed cases are coming down quickly in the US but are still higher than at any point up to late October 2020, and the potential effect of the 3 more infectious variants that have reached the USA is unclear.  So yes, continuing with the known precautions is still the way to go.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA

By the River

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5577 on: February 19, 2021, 01:11:00 PM »
A professor at Johns Hopkins School of Medicine posted based on the 77% reduction in cases in past six weeks and vaccines given/to be given that the US will reach herd immunity (with a very low level of infection) in April. 
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

Hopefully, he is right.  I bookmarked this to check on it in 60 days.

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5578 on: February 19, 2021, 01:51:10 PM »
A professor at Johns Hopkins School of Medicine posted based on the 77% reduction in cases in past six weeks and vaccines given/to be given that the US will reach herd immunity (with a very low level of infection) in April. 
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

Hopefully, he is right.  I bookmarked this to check on it in 60 days.

I think that's probably right. I mean, what we're seeing right now is what you'd expect to see at the beginning of a herd immunity state (rapidly dropping cases despite no change in behavior/weather/etc). There *could* be some other factor causing it, of course, but parsimony suggests that the virus is just running out of vulnerable hosts.

We've consistently underestimated the contagiousness of the virus, so if I was a betting man, I'd guess that a LOT more people were exposed in the last 12 months than even the highest estimates (ie 10x confirmed cases is low) that we've seen.

-W
« Last Edit: February 19, 2021, 01:53:40 PM by waltworks »

By the River

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5579 on: February 19, 2021, 02:36:29 PM »
A professor at Johns Hopkins School of Medicine posted based on the 77% reduction in cases in past six weeks and vaccines given/to be given that the US will reach herd immunity (with a very low level of infection) in April. 
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

Hopefully, he is right.  I bookmarked this to check on it in 60 days.

I think that's probably right. I mean, what we're seeing right now is what you'd expect to see at the beginning of a herd immunity state (rapidly dropping cases despite no change in behavior/weather/etc). There *could* be some other factor causing it, of course, but parsimony suggests that the virus is just running out of vulnerable hosts.

We've consistently underestimated the contagiousness of the virus, so if I was a betting man, I'd guess that a LOT more people were exposed in the last 12 months than even the highest estimates (ie 10x confirmed cases is low) that we've seen.

-W

There was actually a change in behavior 12 days ago...the Super Bowl.  Remember all the articles saying to stay home that it was going to be a super-spreader event.  cases are continuing to drop.

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5580 on: February 19, 2021, 02:49:10 PM »
Maybe to be more clear, there's been no meaningful *helpful* change in behavior in the last month or two.

I don't follow football so I forgot about the super bowl, but that's a good point.

-W

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5581 on: February 19, 2021, 03:27:05 PM »
Cases and deaths in the US are now in a pretty sharp decline. At least some of that, of course, is due to vaccinations. 41M people have received at least one dose and daily deaths right now are currently beating the modeled consensus.

Biden and Fauci are still playing on expectations. That is, they're slow to recognize good news and setting very beatable targets. This frustrates me as a data person who wants to be shot straight 100% of the time, but Biden hasn't had a 50 year career in national public service by being bad at expectation setting I suppose.

Anyway, same old same old. Wear your masks. WFH if you can. Avoid gatherings if you can. Get tested if you're exposed. Isolate if you're sick. Get the vaccine as soon as you can.

As an engineer who is always setting slightly unachievable targets, I don't disagree. But the early rollout of vaccines was such a cluster that I think they are right to set the bar lower. My logical side understood the early bumps but my mental health was not good anyway... People are barely coping and it's better to underpromise and overdeliver on this IMO. But the key is to slightly underpromise!

Haha, this is the rule in finance as well. Beating earnings by 2% is good. Blowing out earnings by 20% is bad because that's 20% that we could have been using to acquire more business and grow future earnings had we known.

But human beings I think are naturally inclined to be conservative in their estimates. Or at least, financial people are. So you end up with an earnings per share target that is the sum of estimates made by dozens of people. And each of those people are baking in a little bit of conservatism, because they don't want to be wrong. But the sum of dozens of slightly conservative estimates is a super conservative estimate. That's a battle we're constantly fighting.

« Last Edit: February 19, 2021, 03:28:41 PM by mathlete »

Bloop Bloop Reloaded

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5582 on: February 19, 2021, 09:20:34 PM »
Good predictions should be neither conservative nor optimistic. They should simply be realistic. The need for 'safety' should be baked into the parameters used in formulating whatever approach then derives from the numbers. If you supplement that with a conservative prediction you then end up having two layers of modulation which is too conservative overall which reduces overall utility.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5583 on: February 20, 2021, 07:31:11 AM »
Good predictions should be neither conservative nor optimistic. They should simply be realistic. The need for 'safety' should be baked into the parameters used in formulating whatever approach then derives from the numbers. If you supplement that with a conservative prediction you then end up having two layers of modulation which is too conservative overall which reduces overall utility.

Of course. But people react asymmetrically to good and bad news.

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5584 on: February 20, 2021, 09:20:12 PM »
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that we may have reached some level of herd immunity in certain areas, and this is starting to choke out the inter-regional spread that kept setting fires in various regions (NE in Spring, SE & SW in Summer, Midwest, Texas and CA in Fall/Winter).
Two things to keep in mind:
1. Herd immunity isn't a binary switch. There is going to be a drop in infection rate as we approach it, and we'll know we're at that promised land when infections gradually peter out. We've been burned before, but note the sigmoid shape appearing in the national graph. Obviously there's a risk that this potential decrease in rate will be yet another pothole (try to spot the summer spike!), but that risk drops as the % infected/immune goes up in a population.

2. The effect we are looking for (end to community spread) is a geographic phenomenon. While there is a flow of commerce & travel that makes each geographic region connected to the others, these interactions (especially now) are a small fraction of the daily exposure risks that an average person encounters. For example in my county, ~10% of the population has had confirmed COVID infection, while another 10% has been vaccinated. There is likely a significant undercount of COVID infections (2-3x by best estimates), so we're looking at 30-40% immunity already. This is a much better spot to be in than the county was when there was 0% vaccination and a small fraction exposed (beginning of November). The graph of % infected per state is an example - note the range in both shape of curves and current values for the different states. It does seem that the 10-12% of known population infected is where plateaus start to appear. Whether this will hold is unclear, but I think at this point the majority of wildfires are being put out through vaccinations and infected people having infected most of their susceptible wider circle at this point.

I doubt we will see another significant spike in the US given the widespread exposure in the population. It'll be a steady, painfully slow decline in cases until they just stop one day in the next several months.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2021, 09:35:06 PM by Abe »

kenmoremmm

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5585 on: February 20, 2021, 09:55:53 PM »
how do US trends compare with sweden trends? by and large, shouldn't sweden have reached herd immunity first given their initial and continued strategies?

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5586 on: February 21, 2021, 04:53:22 AM »
how do US trends compare with sweden trends? by and large, shouldn't sweden have reached herd immunity first given their initial and continued strategies?

https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

stoaX

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5587 on: February 21, 2021, 05:21:21 AM »
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that we may have reached some level of herd immunity in certain areas, and this is starting to choke out the inter-regional spread that kept setting fires in various regions (NE in Spring, SE & SW in Summer, Midwest, Texas and CA in Fall/Winter).
Two things to keep in mind:
1. Herd immunity isn't a binary switch. There is going to be a drop in infection rate as we approach it, and we'll know we're at that promised land when infections gradually peter out. We've been burned before, but note the sigmoid shape appearing in the national graph. Obviously there's a risk that this potential decrease in rate will be yet another pothole (try to spot the summer spike!), but that risk drops as the % infected/immune goes up in a population.

2. The effect we are looking for (end to community spread) is a geographic phenomenon. While there is a flow of commerce & travel that makes each geographic region connected to the others, these interactions (especially now) are a small fraction of the daily exposure risks that an average person encounters. For example in my county, ~10% of the population has had confirmed COVID infection, while another 10% has been vaccinated. There is likely a significant undercount of COVID infections (2-3x by best estimates), so we're looking at 30-40% immunity already. This is a much better spot to be in than the county was when there was 0% vaccination and a small fraction exposed (beginning of November). The graph of % infected per state is an example - note the range in both shape of curves and current values for the different states. It does seem that the 10-12% of known population infected is where plateaus start to appear. Whether this will hold is unclear, but I think at this point the majority of wildfires are being put out through vaccinations and infected people having infected most of their susceptible wider circle at this point.

I doubt we will see another significant spike in the US given the widespread exposure in the population. It'll be a steady, painfully slow decline in cases until they just stop one day in the next several months.

Thanks for your contribution to the discussion.  I sure hope you are right! 

lemanfan

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5588 on: February 21, 2021, 10:34:20 AM »
how do US trends compare with sweden trends? by and large, shouldn't sweden have reached herd immunity first given their initial and continued strategies?

Sweden is pretty far from herd immunity, at least at a country level.  Stockholm, the main city and probably hardest hit is now estimated to have about 20% of the population having antibodies according to todays newscasts.

As of Friday 19th of Feb, approx 0,6 million people are confirmed as having had Covid-19 and 0,4 million people out of our 10 million have had at least one virus shot.  The first number is probably low though, as testing have been partly lacking even for those of us who had symptoms.

This week that we're in now and the next is also a big school holiday when many people go for a week of skiing which might make a new spreading event that is both big and geographically extended. Government officials have talked about preparing for a third wave partly due to this. 
« Last Edit: February 21, 2021, 10:40:01 AM by lemanfan »

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5589 on: February 23, 2021, 05:51:31 PM »
Hate to ge the bearer of bad news, but US cases are ticking up ever so slightly again, which isn't a good sign given how quickly things were declining.  An uptick during a steep decline is concerning, as it could mean we're being hit all of a sudden hard.  Maybe its just a delay in reporting due to weather problems and holidays.... We need to vaccinate hard, and get everyone their first dose -- ignore second doses for now imo until we get a huge % of the population vaccinated.

Edit:  Someone had made this comment on another forum (covid related):  "As has already been said, this is almost certainly a data artifact from last week. The data has been really wonky over the last week due to a long weekend and last week's storms, especially vaccination data. For example, this past Saturday the CDC data shows we had 4.7 million doses delivered, on Sunday it was -3.17 million doses, on Monday it was 0.25 million, on Tuesday it was a paltry 975 and then today 6.9 million. It's just all over the place right now. It'll probably get back to a regular trajectory a week from now."

Meanwhile, the CA strain is looking concerning. 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/californias-coronavirus-strain-looks-increasingly-130055544.html
« Last Edit: February 23, 2021, 07:53:51 PM by HBFIRE »

Zamboni

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5590 on: February 24, 2021, 04:33:00 AM »
Those projection graphs from Sweden are encouraging, but also darkly hilarious. The have the "masks" dashed line projection on everything, but then as you scroll down there is a "mask use" graph showing that only 5% of their population has been using masks this whole time. The funniest part of that graph is that they then have this dashed line projection that goes from that flat 5% mask use they've had all along that spikes straight up to 100% mask use on that graph on today's date, which I guess is what the "masks" future projection on all of their other graphs is based on. 

"We." What does that even mean in the USA?

Where I live (southern state in the USA), unfortunately a pretty high number of people have just ignored the mask laws all along. The couple of times I have ventured out recently, mask compliance has been completely terrible even in situation where there is large signage everywhere and regular PA announcements that people need to have their masks coving their nose and mouth at all times. Restaurants have been open at full capacity dine in since last summer and many have brisk business based upon the number of cars in their parking lots.

Long before vaccines were available, two of my local grocery stores that have "drink in" wine/beer bars reopened them so people can hang out and drink. Seriously, go drink at a normal bar, you louts. I've had to adjust my schedule and only grocery shop in the morning now, before the "in store bar" is open, but the people who work in the grocery stores and restaurants have no little choice and even less say in these decisions.

Just found out completely by accident this past week that both my boss and my other half's boss (different person) have older kids who have been attending in person at the most expensive and exclusive local private K-12 school this whole time. So, of course I had to look it up: elementary school there is about $25K per year per child. They stayed open even though all of the public schools in the area, where our kids go, have been shut down and moved to remote learning only for the past year. I think it wouldn't bother me much at all if not for their completely feigned empathy this whole time for folks who have actually been trying to adhere to social distancing guidelines, work full time, and basically home school their kids full time. They were trying to pretend they were in the same boat with most of their employees and actually had the gall to give people little lectures about how they could manage things at home better and get more work done. Hypocrites. Any last little shred of goodwill I had towards them is completely gone.

One of my good friends from college told me she has been eating in restaurants this whole time bc it has been allowed in Florida and she thinks it's perfectly fine "at places where she knows the people who work there." Did she get COVID? Yep, in December. Did she spread it? Almost certainly. Does she work in a job where she likely spread it far and wide to many high risk people? Yep, she works in a major hospital for crying out loud.

So, a lot of people just don't care and are have been ignoring the law and best advice of epidemiologists for quite some time if not the whole time. All of that makes me glad that some folks can be vaccinated. Because there is no "we" in the US. There's only "me." Me me me me me.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5591 on: February 24, 2021, 07:34:46 AM »
I overheard two coworkers talking yesterday.  One said he took a survey and it asked if he was interested in getting the covid vaccine and he responded "Fuck no!", to which the other coworker started laughing, and they both continued laughing and shitting on the vaccine.  I don't know if they are anti vax in general, just against the covid vaccine, or just idiots.  The whole crowd seems very MAGAish and I've seen some Trump bumper stickers and Trump face masks, so maybe they are all 3. 

sui generis

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5592 on: February 24, 2021, 08:13:14 AM »
I still see lots of covid-deniers crying about how our businesses shouldn't be shut down and how horrible everything is, but based on comments above and my own experience in probably one of the most covid-careful (if not necessarily successful, could be a lot of virtue signalling, but that's the Bay Area for you) areas is that everything except schools is pretty much open.  Granted, I'm not a big shopper, but I just don't even know what's still closed?

I do recognize that lots of businesses are closed, as in permanently closed, because they did not survive the last year, and that's a tragedy that the owners and employees should be able to rely on our (non-existent) social safety net for.  But, I'm just honestly mystified as to what's not open anywhere (*esp* in red states and counties) that people are still so riled up about?

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5593 on: February 24, 2021, 08:23:57 AM »
I live in a really red state and the only thing that's "closed" is big events (ie concerts, sports events, etc). I think those are mostly not happening by choice of the organizers, not state mandate.

"Opening" these things just depends on controlling covid (and getting all the hesitant folks to get vaccinated).

-W

lemanfan

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5594 on: February 24, 2021, 08:33:44 AM »
Those projection graphs from Sweden are encouraging, but also darkly hilarious. The have the "masks" dashed line projection on everything, but then as you scroll down there is a "mask use" graph showing that only 5% of their population has been using masks this whole time. The funniest part of that graph is that they then have this dashed line projection that goes from that flat 5% mask use they've had all along that spikes straight up to 100% mask use on that graph on today's date, which I guess is what the "masks" future projection on all of their other graphs is based on. 

5% seems about right for mask use in Sweden based on what I see around the city were I live.  It was not encouraged here until recently (January 7th 2021), and then only during peak hours of public transport (a bit earlier in health care, of course).  It is not enforced.

Actually, just now I'm watching new updates from the government in a live stream.  Some stricter rules regarding stores and restaurants, but yet nothing about masks after too many words...

Michael in ABQ

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5595 on: February 24, 2021, 08:45:49 AM »
I still see lots of covid-deniers crying about how our businesses shouldn't be shut down and how horrible everything is, but based on comments above and my own experience in probably one of the most covid-careful (if not necessarily successful, could be a lot of virtue signalling, but that's the Bay Area for you) areas is that everything except schools is pretty much open.  Granted, I'm not a big shopper, but I just don't even know what's still closed?

I do recognize that lots of businesses are closed, as in permanently closed, because they did not survive the last year, and that's a tragedy that the owners and employees should be able to rely on our (non-existent) social safety net for.  But, I'm just honestly mystified as to what's not open anywhere (*esp* in red states and counties) that people are still so riled up about?

Here in New Mexico, which is definitely a blue state, most schools are still not open. At least the Albuquerque Public School system (70,000 students, by far the largest in the state). My kids go to a private school and it's been open and in person since August. The kids desks are spread apart and they wear masks outside the classroom but that's it. No COVID among any students or staff all year.

Theaters are still closed, restaurants were closed for indoor dining until a couple of weeks ago. They're just now allowing 25% capacity. A local outdoor amusement park that's an institution in the area is still closed, but the brand new Top Golf which got millions in government subsidies just opened up for in-person use (I guess the former didn't grease the right palms). I just saw a local news story about a bowling alley that's still closed down.

The state has a red, yellow, green categorization for counties. Red is the most restrictive, green is less so. "Close-contact recreational facilities" are closed at all three levels. This includes: movie theaters, arcades, amusement parks, bowling alleys, casinos, event venues, bars, dance clubs, adult entertainment venues, and any other place of recreation or entertainment (except the national driving range chain which apparently doesn't have to follow the same rules because it's considered a golf course which is an outdoor recreational facility).

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5596 on: February 24, 2021, 09:02:55 AM »
5% seems about right for mask use in Sweden based on what I see around the city were I live.  It was not encouraged here until recently (January 7th 2021), and then only during peak hours of public transport (a bit earlier in health care, of course).  It is not enforced.

Actually, just now I'm watching new updates from the government in a live stream.  Some stricter rules regarding stores and restaurants, but yet nothing about masks after too many words...

To be fair, as someone who religiously wears a mask in public settings, it's not clear to me that they helped. My own community (very affluent, very liberal) has 100% mask compliance as far as I can tell. I literally have never seen someone unmasked indoors and people do a good job covering their whole mouth/nose.

Our larger state is super conservative and when I am outside of my own community/county, there's maybe 50% mask compliance at best, though some specific chains (ie Costco, Kroger grocery stores) enforce things pretty strictly.

So there's a huge divergence in behavior on masks... and basically no difference in infection rates/case numbers from my county to any of the others in the state over the course of the pandemic.

I guess you could blame this on people traveling between counties, but like I said, *everyone* here wears a mask, and people caught covid at about the same rate as they did in places where almost nobody does. It really doesn't look like there was much effect from the masks, if any at all.

-W

simmias

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5597 on: February 24, 2021, 09:20:13 AM »
In my liberal city I see virtually 100% compliance in stores, but virtually 0% compliance from my young neighbors in our 200+ unit condo complex who regularly throw large, crowded parties.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5598 on: February 24, 2021, 09:27:06 AM »
5% seems about right for mask use in Sweden based on what I see around the city were I live.  It was not encouraged here until recently (January 7th 2021), and then only during peak hours of public transport (a bit earlier in health care, of course).  It is not enforced.

Actually, just now I'm watching new updates from the government in a live stream.  Some stricter rules regarding stores and restaurants, but yet nothing about masks after too many words...

To be fair, as someone who religiously wears a mask in public settings, it's not clear to me that they helped. My own community (very affluent, very liberal) has 100% mask compliance as far as I can tell. I literally have never seen someone unmasked indoors and people do a good job covering their whole mouth/nose.

Our larger state is super conservative and when I am outside of my own community/county, there's maybe 50% mask compliance at best, though some specific chains (ie Costco, Kroger grocery stores) enforce things pretty strictly.

So there's a huge divergence in behavior on masks... and basically no difference in infection rates/case numbers from my county to any of the others in the state over the course of the pandemic.

I guess you could blame this on people traveling between counties, but like I said, *everyone* here wears a mask, and people caught covid at about the same rate as they did in places where almost nobody does. It really doesn't look like there was much effect from the masks, if any at all.

-W

As a person who, also, has been religiously wearing a mask in all indoor public places, since March, 2020, I'm pretty skeptical about whether they have much/any effect on preventing transmission of covid. If anything, masks seem to give many people a false sense of security. Over and over again, I've observed people, completely unnecessarily, spend hours and hours in small, crowded, completely unventilated, spaces. When I've challenged them on the wisdom of having 2 hour meetings in tiny rooms, with no windows, the door closed, and no working ventilation, they tell me, "It's okay. We've all got masks on." wtf? I believe a mask helps protect me and others, in case one of us inadvertently sneezes or coughs, during the few minutes we have to go inside a store, or whatever, but if people think wearing a homemade cloth or paper mask is going to do anything, at all, to prevent the transmission of any virus between people who are, for example, riding in a car together with the windows closed, they're just fooling themselves, imho.

LightTripper

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #5599 on: February 24, 2021, 09:43:20 AM »
I think that's largely why our chief medical officers here in the UK have been fairly quiet on masks (they are encouraged, and indeed mandated on public transport and in shops - but I've seen plenty of people in shops and on public transport either with no mask or a baggy mask hanging under their nose and nobody does anything about it).  In many ways this is poor, but the advantage is that I think people here do largely understand that a mask offers only limited protection.  If you're cautious you wear one - but are mainly protected by just avoiding indoor spaces and other people.  If you're not cautious, you don't wear one and don't take any other precautions either.

I recently bought a pack of FFP2 masks (triggered by some other European governments mandating them for public transport or other settings), and they are noticeably harder to breathe through (still not bad though - I would recommend).  I hardly ever use them but it's reassuring to have one in your pocket when you can't avoid human contact (e.g. on the rare occasions I have to go to a shop - we normally get our groceries delivered - or today I went to pick up books for the kids at the library, which usually you can do in the doorway, but they were short-staffed today so I had to go inside for a few minutes). 

So it's quite alien to me to read about people taking the trouble to wear masks, but then happily sitting around in indoor meeting rooms talking to people for long periods or socialising indoors with masks.  Maybe it's partly the US work culture, which I think is very extremely work-focused compared to here in Europe?  The vast majority of people in office jobs here have been working from home since last March, with maybe a few days in the office during August/September when our numbers were very low.  But even when I have seen people in offices here (from outside), they have rarely been wearing masks - so it seems to be a case of either ignore the whole thing, or take it seriously (and therefore you don't need a mask because you're never indoors with somebody outside your household).