Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 354184 times)

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4950 on: November 29, 2020, 11:34:06 AM »
I don't think it's fair to impugn the conclusion based on the use of modeling. Modeling of some kind is necessary for all conclusions of this sort because there's no way to test everybody. Models are even used to figure out how many people got/died from the Flu each year, despite the comparatively good Flu testing/treatment infrastructure.

FWIW my favorite modeler thinks that we were around 52 million in the middle of November, with a confidence interval that runs between 35 and 78 million.

That said, I wouldn't hold my breath on herd immunity either. While evidence of reinfections has been scant, COVID has only been in the states for about 8 months. Between 40K and 60K will die from COVID in the US in December and every promised miracle of COVID magically going away has let us down, so I advise everyone to stay vigilant. 

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4951 on: November 29, 2020, 01:18:40 PM »
I don't think it's fair to impugn the conclusion based on the use of modeling. Modeling of some kind is necessary for all conclusions of this sort because there's no way to test everybody. Models are even used to figure out how many people got/died from the Flu each year, despite the comparatively good Flu testing/treatment infrastructure.

Agreed, some kind of modeling is needed since as you say it's impossible to test everyone.

FWIW my favorite modeler thinks that we were around 52 million in the middle of November, with a confidence interval that runs between 35 and 78 million.

Assuming we are at ~50 Million it wouldn't be a stretch to assume another 50 Million between Dec-Mar would it?

That said, I wouldn't hold my breath on herd immunity either. While evidence of reinfections has been scant, COVID has only been in the states for about 8 months. Between 40K and 60K will die from COVID in the US in December and every promised miracle of COVID magically going away has let us down, so I advise everyone to stay vigilant. 

I agree and it is necessary to stay vigilant; hard as it is.

BUT if the 50 million is accurate and we get say another 50 million over the winter we'd be at 100 million.  Then if 50-100 million get vaccinated in the Spring (especially health care and nursing home workers, elderly, etc) then we'd be in the 50-75% of population range between natural immunity and vaccinations which could lead to a decent combination of herd immunity by Summer maybe?

If that comes to pass that would be great to get kids back in school next Fall and get back to some sort of normalcy.

Fully understand how tough this Winter will be and that we aren't out of the woods yet by any means. A few of my friends have got Covid but luckily all mild cases so far. Somehow miraculously no one in my or my wife's family (even extended family of 50-100 people) has yet despite a high percentage of us being essential on site workers. But I'm really afraid of someone getting it this Winter; especially our parents.

Seems as though if we can survive this Winter the 2nd half of 2021 and beyond looks much better than I thought just a few months ago. Before the recent Vaccine news and some of these reports on potential case numbers I was starting to fear we could have years and years of rolling lockdowns, flare ups, multiple people in my close circle (or myself) catching it, dying, etc.

---------------

I understand the majority of people on this thread/forum seem to be really pessimistic (despite MMM himself being all about Optimism) but does anyone else feel better then they did during say the Summer spikes in the Southeast or feel like there may be some light at the end of the tunnel?

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4952 on: November 29, 2020, 01:31:41 PM »
I actually feel pretty great about our local situation. We put kids back in school at the end of the summer and it's gone great, and it's looking like we should be able to easily make it through the winter at this rate. I'm guessing teachers will be high on the vaccine priority list, too, which will help.

Really, school is the #1 essential service we have. So if that's functioning I'm pretty happy. I can go to concerts and eat out next year.

-W

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4953 on: November 29, 2020, 01:37:12 PM »
I actually feel pretty great about our local situation. We put kids back in school at the end of the summer and it's gone great, and it's looking like we should be able to easily make it through the winter at this rate. I'm guessing teachers will be high on the vaccine priority list, too, which will help.

Really, school is the #1 essential service we have. So if that's functioning I'm pretty happy. I can go to concerts and eat out next year.

-W

Agreed and as I have an 8 and 10 year old and my wife's a teacher not having school has a major impact on 75% of our household and still a big indirect effect on me due to their stress/unhappiness. 

Unfortunately the way it's going I'd be shocked if my kids are back in School before Spring break and surprised if they even go back at all until next Fall :(

Glad to hear your local situation is going well Walt!!

If concerts do happen next year I've already got 5-6 I paid for this year to look forward too :D

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4954 on: November 29, 2020, 08:06:32 PM »
A new study by the CDC confirms what I was theorizing about 15 pages back. The US likely reached 50 million infections by Sept, and 100 million infections in Nov.

This of course, drops the IFR / CFR precipitously, and puts us on the path towards herd immunity much sooner than what official case counts would lead one to believe.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/11/26/939365087/government-model-suggests-u-s-covid-19-cases-could-be-approaching-100-million

That would assume that having had it means one is and continues to be (for quite some time) immune.  Is that something we know to be true?


https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/11/17/coronavirus-immunity-may-last-years-possibly-even-decades-study-suggests/

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4955 on: November 29, 2020, 08:11:35 PM »

Did you read the headline of the article at all?

It's nice that this paper affirms your beliefs on the matter but it's far from a 100% conclusive article. The entire premise is it's a model/

No, I am incapable of reading, which is precisely why I read multiple medical journal articles about COVID per week.
How many do you, oh literate one, read per week?

And I'm thankful that our reigning mathlete put you in your place :)

kenmoremmm

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4956 on: November 30, 2020, 11:34:09 AM »
question:
obviously the CFR right now is high. but, let's say the world is vaccinated or the virus has run its course in places that don't vaccinate. will CFR drop down to something more flu-like since it's killed off the people it's "supposed to" and then the rest of the survivors will experience flu-like death rates? obviously, there are mutations and variables in play, but let's assume covid is more or less as it is now.

v8rx7guy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4957 on: November 30, 2020, 11:40:56 AM »
question:
obviously the CFR right now is high. but, let's say the world is vaccinated or the virus has run its course in places that don't vaccinate. will CFR drop down to something more flu-like since it's killed off the people it's "supposed to" and then the rest of the survivors will experience flu-like death rates? obviously, there are mutations and variables in play, but let's assume covid is more or less as it is now.

This is how I've been imagining it happening... and also why I am personally concerned as to exactly how the populations will react to flu-like death rates due to COVID in the future.  Are we ever going to get back to normal as long as COVID-19 is around, even if it's equal to what we used to consider normal "flu-like" death rates?  When are we going to be "allowed" to individually determine the risk we are willing to take, like we were able to take during cold and flu season before?

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4958 on: November 30, 2020, 11:45:01 AM »
Immunity will probably last for years if not decades, so there probably won't be any Covid to speak of in a year or two.

To be clear, I don't know this for a fact. But it's what the various immunity studies seem to indicate so far.

-W

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4959 on: November 30, 2020, 11:57:39 AM »
Immunity will probably last for years if not decades, so there probably won't be any Covid to speak of in a year or two.

To be clear, I don't know this for a fact. But it's what the various immunity studies seem to indicate so far.

-W

Can you post some of the immunity studies of covid that you're referencing with this comment?

dandarc

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4960 on: November 30, 2020, 11:59:52 AM »
CFR in the US is about 2 or 3% right now. 2% if you use "all confirmed cases" as your denominator. 3.25% if you use "deaths + recovered" as your denominator. Fuzzy math article proposes approximate true cases of 7.5X officially reported positives.

So if we take that 7.5x multiplier at face value, and adjust denominator accordingly. Then you can see a back-of the napkin IFR of between 0.25% and 0.4%.

So 2.5 to 4 times deadlier overall than the flu with back-of-the-napkin math. Taking the confidence interval into account, If we take that particular study's numbers for it the range is probably more like 2 to 5 times deadlier overall than the flu.

I'm a bit skeptical of their numbers - are we really missing 1/2 (or more) of Covid hospitalizations? I'm sure there are some folks in the hospital who aren't in the count, but this study is saying we're missing 50 to 70% of them - that seems like it has to be on the high-side of possible to me. I'm not so skeptical that this result seems like it does not possibly jive with reality - just I think this is probably the high-side of multipliers overall. You'll note that mathlete's favorite modeler has roughly the same estimated cases that this study does about 1.5 months later. That's a huge difference in timing for something like this.
« Last Edit: November 30, 2020, 12:01:27 PM by dandarc »

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4961 on: November 30, 2020, 12:07:09 PM »
Immunity will probably last for years if not decades, so there probably won't be any Covid to speak of in a year or two.

To be clear, I don't know this for a fact. But it's what the various immunity studies seem to indicate so far.

-W

Can you post some of the immunity studies of covid that you're referencing with this comment?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/health/coronavirus-immunity.html

This is what most people expected, really. People who recovered from SARS are still immune ~20 years later.

Again, that *might* not be the case. But it's very likely that immunity will last a long time.

-W

dandarc

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4962 on: November 30, 2020, 12:10:26 PM »
Immunity will probably last for years if not decades, so there probably won't be any Covid to speak of in a year or two.

To be clear, I don't know this for a fact. But it's what the various immunity studies seem to indicate so far.

-W

Can you post some of the immunity studies of covid that you're referencing with this comment?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/health/coronavirus-immunity.html

This is what most people expected, really. People who recovered from SARS are still immune ~20 years later.

Again, that *might* not be the case. But it's very likely that immunity will last a long time.

-W
Makes the US response all the more shameful.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4963 on: November 30, 2020, 12:31:06 PM »
Immunity will probably last for years if not decades, so there probably won't be any Covid to speak of in a year or two.

To be clear, I don't know this for a fact. But it's what the various immunity studies seem to indicate so far.

-W

Can you post some of the immunity studies of covid that you're referencing with this comment?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/health/coronavirus-immunity.html

This is what most people expected, really. People who recovered from SARS are still immune ~20 years later.

Again, that *might* not be the case. But it's very likely that immunity will last a long time.

-W

That's a paywalled news piece, not a study.

Villanelle

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4964 on: November 30, 2020, 01:13:40 PM »
A new study by the CDC confirms what I was theorizing about 15 pages back. The US likely reached 50 million infections by Sept, and 100 million infections in Nov.

This of course, drops the IFR / CFR precipitously, and puts us on the path towards herd immunity much sooner than what official case counts would lead one to believe.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/11/26/939365087/government-model-suggests-u-s-covid-19-cases-could-be-approaching-100-million

That would assume that having had it means one is and continues to be (for quite some time) immune.  Is that something we know to be true?


https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/11/17/coronavirus-immunity-may-last-years-possibly-even-decades-study-suggests/

I'm not sure what to make of the article.  It talks about signs of long-lasting immunity, but the first line of the article is "Immunity to the novel coronavirus may last eight months or longer" which hardly seems long-lasting.  It also says, "We probably will not need to vaccinate people every year as we had feared,".  That suggests a significant amount of people would have immunity lasting less than a year.  (I ASSume that, and that they aren't referring to mutations and different versions, like the annual flu vax.)  So all of that seems to point away from that quick and sustained herd immunity.

But then it says, "In addition, these antibodies were “durable,” showing remarkably slow rates of decline that were consistent with many years, and potentially even decades, of protection. " and "That amount of memory would likely prevent the vast majority of people from getting hospitalized disease, severe disease, for many years,". 

So I'm a bit confused about what I'm supposed to take away.  8-12 months of immunity in most cases, and annual revaccination required for everyone?  Or decades of protection? 

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4965 on: November 30, 2020, 01:14:28 PM »
I think if you are just going to dismiss a (fairly in depth, which quotes researchers directly and also cites sources) NYT article about this subject, then there's not much I can say.

Many useful things are paywalled; maybe it's time to break out the credit card and subscribe. I think they usually have a $1/week rate going.

-W

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4966 on: November 30, 2020, 01:17:43 PM »
I'm not sure what to make of the article.  It talks about signs of long-lasting immunity, but the first line of the article is "Immunity to the novel coronavirus may last eight months or longer" which hardly seems long-lasting.  It also says, "We probably will not need to vaccinate people every year as we had feared,".  That suggests a significant amount of people would have immunity lasting less than a year.  (I ASSume that, and that they aren't referring to mutations and different versions, like the annual flu vax.)  So all of that seems to point away from that quick and sustained herd immunity.

But then it says, "In addition, these antibodies were “durable,” showing remarkably slow rates of decline that were consistent with many years, and potentially even decades, of protection. " and "That amount of memory would likely prevent the vast majority of people from getting hospitalized disease, severe disease, for many years,". 

So I'm a bit confused about what I'm supposed to take away.  8-12 months of immunity in most cases, and annual revaccination required for everyone?  Or decades of protection?

You need to understand how scientists communicate here. Because they only *know* people have been immune for 8 months (because that's how long we have cases to study) nobody will go out on a limb and say "so you're immune for 20 years". They will say things like "this means immunity for decades is possible" or "consistent with potentially decades of immunity" or what have you.

In 20 years, you will be able to get a straight answer to this question from a scientist, but right now we only have predictions based on how we know the immune system to have worked thus far, as compared to how it responds to other diseases (ie, consistent with very long term immunity).

-W

Villanelle

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4967 on: November 30, 2020, 02:36:25 PM »
I'm not sure what to make of the article.  It talks about signs of long-lasting immunity, but the first line of the article is "Immunity to the novel coronavirus may last eight months or longer" which hardly seems long-lasting.  It also says, "We probably will not need to vaccinate people every year as we had feared,".  That suggests a significant amount of people would have immunity lasting less than a year.  (I ASSume that, and that they aren't referring to mutations and different versions, like the annual flu vax.)  So all of that seems to point away from that quick and sustained herd immunity.

But then it says, "In addition, these antibodies were “durable,” showing remarkably slow rates of decline that were consistent with many years, and potentially even decades, of protection. " and "That amount of memory would likely prevent the vast majority of people from getting hospitalized disease, severe disease, for many years,". 

So I'm a bit confused about what I'm supposed to take away.  8-12 months of immunity in most cases, and annual revaccination required for everyone?  Or decades of protection?

You need to understand how scientists communicate here. Because they only *know* people have been immune for 8 months (because that's how long we have cases to study) nobody will go out on a limb and say "so you're immune for 20 years". They will say things like "this means immunity for decades is possible" or "consistent with potentially decades of immunity" or what have you.

In 20 years, you will be able to get a straight answer to this question from a scientist, but right now we only have predictions based on how we know the immune system to have worked thus far, as compared to how it responds to other diseases (ie, consistent with very long term immunity).

-W

I do understand that.  But "may last 8 months" and "may last decades" are very different things, and yet it says both.

I'm not looking for, "we know that 87.9% of people will have immunity that lasts 17.3 years".  I know that can't yet exists, and because there are many factors, there isn't going to be one duration for everyone.  But do you not see how "maybe 8 months" and "maybe decades" are very different things?

I do admit to misreading the part about about vaccination.  I missed the "NOT need" part, and read it that we would need to vax every year.  That changed understanding does cause it all to make at least a bit more sense and be a bit more cohesive. 

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4968 on: November 30, 2020, 03:16:42 PM »
I think if you are just going to dismiss a (fairly in depth, which quotes researchers directly and also cites sources) NYT article about this subject, then there's not much I can say.

Many useful things are paywalled; maybe it's time to break out the credit card and subscribe. I think they usually have a $1/week rate going.

-W

Here's the study the NYT is citing:  https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4969 on: November 30, 2020, 03:21:10 PM »
My point is that you can safely read that kind of article optimistically. The chance that we'll need to vaccinate every year is slim to none. Eventually I imagine this will just be another normal childhood vaccination and everyone young enough will forget all about it.

Remember when "humanity has never made a coronavirus vaccine!" was the theme? Despite all sorts of scientists making cautiously optimistic scientist-type statements that actually, we could probably do it? Some people just want to believe the the world's going to burn, I guess.

-W

Villanelle

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4970 on: November 30, 2020, 03:47:27 PM »
My point is that you can safely read that kind of article optimistically. The chance that we'll need to vaccinate every year is slim to none. Eventually I imagine this will just be another normal childhood vaccination and everyone young enough will forget all about it.

Remember when "humanity has never made a coronavirus vaccine!" was the theme? Despite all sorts of scientists making cautiously optimistic scientist-type statements that actually, we could probably do it? Some people just want to believe the the world's going to burn, I guess.

-W

Like I said, I misread and thought it said we likely WOULD need to vaccinate every year, not WOULD NOT.

I actually am reading it optimistically, especially with that reading comprehension snafu out of my way.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4971 on: November 30, 2020, 03:56:51 PM »
Dr. John Campbell in England has been doing a series of videos on Covid-19. He has one that looks at the possibility of long term immunity, using the research on immunity from the first SARS, MERS, and even the 1918 pandemic.  He has the literature.  Well worth watching.

dandarc

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4972 on: November 30, 2020, 04:00:17 PM »
Had we known with a higher degree of certainty develop and roll out highly effective vaccine really would be ~18 months at the beginning, would the collective opinion on the mitigation measures have changed?

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4973 on: November 30, 2020, 04:05:47 PM »
+1 for using modeling to try and figure out how many people have gotten sick
+1 for good reporting by the Times on the prospect of reinfection

Acknowledging either is not the same as saying we should drop our guard and that the virus is (finally) gonna go away thanks to herd immunity (this time!)

Though nascent, these are good data points. They add to the conversation. We shouldn't reflexively lash out at people who bring them to us.

This is coming from one of this forum's earliest and most persistent COVID doomers, and someone very much in support of lockdown measures.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4974 on: November 30, 2020, 04:57:10 PM »
Had we known with a higher degree of certainty develop and roll out highly effective vaccine really would be ~18 months at the beginning, would the collective opinion on the mitigation measures have changed?

A very interesting question. I think a clearer time table could certainly shift opinions in either direction.

But I believe that leadership was by far the determent factor in people's opinions on mitigation. Countries such as Germany, Australia and Canada have done dramatically better than the United States in terms of raw numbers and their leaders have seen a sustained increase in approval rating.

In the United States; however, the response from the Federal Government was very erratic and unscientific from the getgo. In February, the president predicted that the virus would go away with the coming of warm weather in April. He also called attempts to take the virus seriously a hoax aimed at harming his administration. In March, he appeared to be taking it more seriously, and listening to the advice of experts and calling for a shelter in place. The CARES act was also passed in March. This was the high point of the Federal response.

This wouldn't last though. Just days after the shutdown, the President was ruminating on how we "can't let the cure be worse than the disease". He was calling for packed churches in Easter and for the economy to open up again.

At this point, the Federal government completely abdicated responsibility for the virus to state and local governments. State and local officials can order lockdowns, but they are severely hamstrung in their ability to provide fiscal relief for the fallout. The Federal government is uniquely positioned to do that. Here is an incomplete list of things the President has done since, just off the top of my head.

-Insisted on publicly feuding with his point man on the virus, including mocking him for a first pitch thrown out at a baseball game and inventing an invitation to throw out a first pitch of his own
-Crusaded against beleaguered governors trying to take the virus seriously and save lives, stoking resentment that culminated in an FBI foiled kidnapping plot https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gretchen_Whitmer_kidnapping_plot
-Made fun of his political opponents for taking precautions against spreading the virus
-Continued to hold public events where dozens in his circle, himself included, were infected
-Floated conspiracy theories about how doctors are inflating COVID death numbers
-Declared in early October that any further relief would not be negotiated until after he won reelection | it's worth noting that the House has passed another relief bill and it is 100% within the president's power to pressure the senate and then sign the bill, even as a lame duck. A vast majority of his time and attention has gone instead, to chasing down batshit conspiracy theories about election fraud. 50,000 Americans at minimum will die between now and the inauguration of the new president, including many thousand who haven't even been infected yet.

I am 100% confident that there's a reality in which our lockdown measures were both more severe and more popular. This was a failure of leadership to sell the public on the importance of precautions and offer them support. It is impossible to overstate what a fuck up this was. We will be untangling it for years.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4975 on: November 30, 2020, 05:15:49 PM »
Had we known with a higher degree of certainty develop and roll out highly effective vaccine really would be ~18 months at the beginning, would the collective opinion on the mitigation measures have changed?

A very interesting question. I think a clearer time table could certainly shift opinions in either direction.

But I believe that leadership was by far the determent factor in people's opinions on mitigation. Countries such as Germany, Australia and Canada have done dramatically better than the United States in terms of raw numbers and their leaders have seen a sustained increase in approval rating.

In the United States; however, the response from the Federal Government was very erratic and unscientific from the getgo. In February, the president predicted that the virus would go away with the coming of warm weather in April. He also called attempts to take the virus seriously a hoax aimed at harming his administration. In March, he appeared to be taking it more seriously, and listening to the advice of experts and calling for a shelter in place. The CARES act was also passed in March. This was the high point of the Federal response.

This wouldn't last though. Just days after the shutdown, the President was ruminating on how we "can't let the cure be worse than the disease". He was calling for packed churches in Easter and for the economy to open up again.

At this point, the Federal government completely abdicated responsibility for the virus to state and local governments. State and local officials can order lockdowns, but they are severely hamstrung in their ability to provide fiscal relief for the fallout. The Federal government is uniquely positioned to do that. Here is an incomplete list of things the President has done since, just off the top of my head.

-Insisted on publicly feuding with his point man on the virus, including mocking him for a first pitch thrown out at a baseball game and inventing an invitation to throw out a first pitch of his own
-Crusaded against beleaguered governors trying to take the virus seriously and save lives, stoking resentment that culminated in an FBI foiled kidnapping plot https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gretchen_Whitmer_kidnapping_plot
-Made fun of his political opponents for taking precautions against spreading the virus
-Continued to hold public events where dozens in his circle, himself included, were infected
-Floated conspiracy theories about how doctors are inflating COVID death numbers
-Declared in early October that any further relief would not be negotiated until after he won reelection | it's worth noting that the House has passed another relief bill and it is 100% within the president's power to pressure the senate and then sign the bill, even as a lame duck. A vast majority of his time and attention has gone instead, to chasing down batshit conspiracy theories about election fraud. 50,000 Americans at minimum will die between now and the inauguration of the new president, including many thousand who haven't even been infected yet.

I am 100% confident that there's a reality in which our lockdown measures were both more severe and more popular. This was a failure of leadership to sell the public on the importance of precautions and offer them support. It is impossible to overstate what a fuck up this was. We will be untangling it for years.

Add to that: downplayed the seriousness even after becoming ill enough to require several days of hospitalization and experimental treatments (on the US taxpayers' dime), and placing his security detail at risk by forcing them to drive him around on a victory lap while still technically admitted to the hospital.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4976 on: December 01, 2020, 07:51:46 AM »
If I was in a history class 30 years from now and read a detailed account of this administration and their response to the to the virus, I would not believe it.  I would close my text book and start looking for the candid camera, or waiting for ashton kutcher to pop out and yell that I was punk'd because this entire response has been so inept and absurd it would be literally unbelievable without experiencing it first hand.

Prairie Gal

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4977 on: December 01, 2020, 07:54:42 AM »
Dr. John Campbell in England has been doing a series of videos on Covid-19. He has one that looks at the possibility of long term immunity, using the research on immunity from the first SARS, MERS, and even the 1918 pandemic.  He has the literature.  Well worth watching.

Thanks the recommendation. I have started watching him on Youtube, and I like the his common sense. I haven't found the one on immunity yet that you mentioned.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4978 on: December 01, 2020, 08:25:03 AM »
If I was in a history class 30 years from now and read a detailed account of this administration and their response to the to the virus, I would not believe it.  I would close my text book and start looking for the candid camera, or waiting for ashton kutcher to pop out and yell that I was punk'd because this entire response has been so inept and absurd it would be literally unbelievable without experiencing it first hand.

30 years from now I bet Kutcher still looks good too.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4979 on: December 01, 2020, 08:43:23 AM »
If I was in a history class 30 years from now and read a detailed account of this administration and their response to the to the virus, I would not believe it.  I would close my text book and start looking for the candid camera, or waiting for ashton kutcher to pop out and yell that I was punk'd because this entire response has been so inept and absurd it would be literally unbelievable without experiencing it first hand.

30 years from now I bet Kutcher still looks good too.

Everyone starts looking the same when they're heads in a jar . . .

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4980 on: December 01, 2020, 09:49:17 AM »
If I was in a history class 30 years from now and read a detailed account of this administration and their response to the to the virus, I would not believe it.  I would close my text book and start looking for the candid camera, or waiting for ashton kutcher to pop out and yell that I was punk'd because this entire response has been so inept and absurd it would be literally unbelievable without experiencing it first hand.

30 years from now I bet Kutcher still looks good too.

Everyone starts looking the same when they're heads in a jar . . .


Everyone except Nixon:

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4981 on: December 01, 2020, 09:50:32 AM »
ah to be young again.  And also a robot. 

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4982 on: December 01, 2020, 10:04:55 AM »
Apparently somebody decided to test samples from routine blood donor's back in December 2019 - Jan 2020 and found over 1% of the samples had some antibodies for COVID. The study shows there were at least a hundred cases, spread across various states, up to a month earlier than the first confirmed case in the US. These people were presumably going about their normal lives, attending Christmas/Holiday gatherings, New Years parties, etc. I'm curious what that knowledge does to modeling for potential total cases, herd immunity, IFR, appropriate response, etc.

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472

« Last Edit: December 01, 2020, 10:26:02 AM by Paper Chaser »

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4983 on: December 01, 2020, 10:31:29 AM »
Apparently somebody decided to test samples from routine blood donor's back in December 2019 - Jan 2020 and found over 1% of the samples had some antibodies for COVID. The study shows there were at least a hundred cases, spread across various states, up to a month earlier than the first confirmed case in the US. These people were presumably going about their normal lives, attending Christmas/Holiday gatherings, New Years parties, etc. I'm curious what that knowledge does to modeling for potential total cases, herd immunity, IFR, appropriate response, etc.

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472

Huh; that's pretty interesting.

Note that neither NY or NJ were of the 9 states tested. Wonder if thiers would even be higher.

v8rx7guy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4984 on: December 01, 2020, 10:36:34 AM »
Apparently somebody decided to test samples from routine blood donor's back in December 2019 - Jan 2020 and found over 1% of the samples had some antibodies for COVID. The study shows there were at least a hundred cases, spread across various states, up to a month earlier than the first confirmed case in the US. These people were presumably going about their normal lives, attending Christmas/Holiday gatherings, New Years parties, etc. I'm curious what that knowledge does to modeling for potential total cases, herd immunity, IFR, appropriate response, etc.

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472

Huh; that's pretty interesting.

Note that neither NY or NJ were of the 9 states tested. Wonder if thiers would even be higher.

I've been saying this for quite a while... I remember talking to a lot of people in the March-April time frame who were convinced they had COVID in that Dec'19-Jan'20 range of time.  There were also quite a few elderly who passed away from pneumonia in our church congregation in that same time frame.  That being said, the CDC excess deaths chart does NOT seem to back this up.  And neither does the "loss of smell" Google search indicator.  Just figured out how to do that... huge spike in searches in March, nothing before.

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=loss%20of%20smell&geo=US
« Last Edit: December 01, 2020, 10:39:07 AM by v8rx7guy »

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4985 on: December 01, 2020, 10:38:55 AM »
CFR in the US is about 2 or 3% right now. 2% if you use "all confirmed cases" as your denominator. 3.25% if you use "deaths + recovered" as your denominator. Fuzzy math article proposes approximate true cases of 7.5X officially reported positives.

So if we take that 7.5x multiplier at face value, and adjust denominator accordingly. Then you can see a back-of the napkin IFR of between 0.25% and 0.4%.

So 2.5 to 4 times deadlier overall than the flu with back-of-the-napkin math. Taking the confidence interval into account, If we take that particular study's numbers for it the range is probably more like 2 to 5 times deadlier overall than the flu. 



Not quite.  The 0.1% fatality rate of the flu that is so often cited is based on symptomatic cases.  The common Flu and flu like illness also has a high % of asymptomatic cases that aren't in the calculation (see CDC flu data).  The actual IFR of flu is quite a bit lower.  Unfortunately, the media and even some scientific sites get sloppy with using the IFR term instead of CFR.
« Last Edit: December 01, 2020, 10:41:36 AM by HBFIRE »

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4986 on: December 01, 2020, 10:56:17 AM »
Apparently somebody decided to test samples from routine blood donor's back in December 2019 - Jan 2020 and found over 1% of the samples had some antibodies for COVID. The study shows there were at least a hundred cases, spread across various states, up to a month earlier than the first confirmed case in the US. These people were presumably going about their normal lives, attending Christmas/Holiday gatherings, New Years parties, etc. I'm curious what that knowledge does to modeling for potential total cases, herd immunity, IFR, appropriate response, etc.

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472

Huh; that's pretty interesting.

Note that neither NY or NJ were of the 9 states tested. Wonder if thiers would even be higher.

I've been saying this for quite a while... I remember talking to a lot of people in the March-April time frame who were convinced they had COVID in that Dec'19-Jan'20 range of time.  There were also quite a few elderly who passed away from pneumonia in our church congregation in that same time frame.  That being said, the CDC excess deaths chart does NOT seem to back this up.  And neither does the "loss of smell" Google search indicator.  Just figured out how to do that... huge spike in searches in March, nothing before.

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=loss%20of%20smell&geo=US

No matter how you slice there was not a raging pandemic back in December. Hospitals weren't overloaded, and people weren't reporting covid specific symptoms in droves, even if there were locally transmitted cases sprinkled through the country.   Whether people started getting infected in January, or December, or even back in September, it obviously didn't accelerate and give us huge caseloads until March. 

I remember just about everyone I knew claiming in March that they likely had it because they had a case of the sniffles in Dec/Jan.  I tried explaining it's extremely likely that they simply had a cold, because the average adult catches 2-4 colds per year, and children can average up to 10 colds per year, especially when they are very young and starting school.  They were absolutely convinced they had it though.

Davnasty

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4987 on: December 01, 2020, 10:57:31 AM »
Apparently somebody decided to test samples from routine blood donor's back in December 2019 - Jan 2020 and found over 1% of the samples had some antibodies for COVID. The study shows there were at least a hundred cases, spread across various states, up to a month earlier than the first confirmed case in the US. These people were presumably going about their normal lives, attending Christmas/Holiday gatherings, New Years parties, etc. I'm curious what that knowledge does to modeling for potential total cases, herd immunity, IFR, appropriate response, etc.

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472

The presence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies does not indicate the donor had the Covid-19 virus, only that they may have had it.

Quote
A positive test result shows you may have antibodies from an infection with the virus that causes COVID-19. However, there is a chance that a positive result means you have antibodies from an infection with a different virus from the same family of viruses (called coronaviruses).

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing/serology-overview.html



This review of 54 studies on the false positive/negative rates of antibody testing suggests the false positive rate is ~2%

https://www.cochrane.org/CD013652/INFECTN_what-diagnostic-accuracy-antibody-tests-detection-infection-covid-19-virus

Quote
Tests gave false positive results in 2% of those without COVID-19.


A 1% positive rate for Sars-cov-2 antibodies does not prove (or as far as I can tell, even suggest) that the virus was present in December or early January.

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4988 on: December 01, 2020, 11:16:01 AM »
Apparently somebody decided to test samples from routine blood donor's back in December 2019 - Jan 2020 and found over 1% of the samples had some antibodies for COVID. The study shows there were at least a hundred cases, spread across various states, up to a month earlier than the first confirmed case in the US. These people were presumably going about their normal lives, attending Christmas/Holiday gatherings, New Years parties, etc. I'm curious what that knowledge does to modeling for potential total cases, herd immunity, IFR, appropriate response, etc.

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472

The presence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies does not indicate the donor had the Covid-19 virus, only that they may have had it.

Quote
A positive test result shows you may have antibodies from an infection with the virus that causes COVID-19. However, there is a chance that a positive result means you have antibodies from an infection with a different virus from the same family of viruses (called coronaviruses).

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing/serology-overview.html



This review of 54 studies on the false positive/negative rates of antibody testing suggests the false positive rate is ~2%

https://www.cochrane.org/CD013652/INFECTN_what-diagnostic-accuracy-antibody-tests-detection-infection-covid-19-virus

Quote
Tests gave false positive results in 2% of those without COVID-19.


A 1% positive rate for Sars-cov-2 antibodies does not prove (or as far as I can tell, even suggest) that the virus was present in December or early January.

I'm not a medical expert, but it seems like the study took other Coronavirus infections into account and was able to look specifically at SARS-CoV-2:

"In order to better characterize the specimens that were reactive on the pan-Ig ELISA containing whole SARS-CoV-2 spike protein as the capture antigen, and distinguish these from cross reactivity to common coronaviruses, additional, more specific SARS-CoV-2 testing was performed. The S1 subunit has been reported to be a more specific antigen for SARS-CoV-2 serologic diagnosis than the whole S protein [23]. Furthermore, in recent studies, sera from patients with confirmed human coronavirus infection only contained SARS-CoV-2 S-specific IgG antibodies and did not contain IgM or IgA antibodies; neutralizing activity in these sera was found to target only the S2 portion of the spike protein [23, 24]. Therefore, the presence of IgM or IgA antibodies and S1-specific binding activity may distinguish antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 from antibodies to human common coronaviruses [23, 24]. In the present study, 84 of 90 (>93%) reactive sera had neutralizing activity against SARS-CoV-2 virus, 39 (44.3%) had both IgG and IgMSARS-CoV-2 S-specific antibodies, 2 (2.2%) sera had surrogate neutralization activities, and 1/90 (1.1%) had SARS-CoV-2 S1-specific Ig. Collectively, these data suggest that at least some of the reactive blood donor sera could be due to prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. One serum, collected on January 10, 2020 in Connecticut, demonstrated a neutralization titer of 320, 6.75 signal to threshold ratio, and 70% inhibition activity by surrogate neutralization activity, but was Ortho S1 non-reactive. These data indicate that this donation was likely from an individual with a past or active SARS-CoV-2 infection."


To me, that sounds like even if nearly all of the cases of antibodies being present are just a fluke, there was likely one case captured by this study in Connecticut on Jan 10, 2020. That's 10 days before the first confirmed case in the US, on the opposite coast, and captured from a  pretty random study (not somebody presenting symptoms  and seeking help).


The timeline also fits pretty well with claims from State medical officials in Ohio back in the summer that the first cases in Ohio were traced back to early January (two weeks before the first confirmed case in the US):

https://www.wcpo.com/rebound/first-ohio-case-of-covid-19-was-earlier-in-the-year-than-thought

https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/local-news/investigations/hundreds-may-have-had-covid-19-before-first-cases-announced
« Last Edit: December 01, 2020, 12:30:07 PM by Paper Chaser »

dandarc

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4989 on: December 01, 2020, 12:32:12 PM »
CFR in the US is about 2 or 3% right now. 2% if you use "all confirmed cases" as your denominator. 3.25% if you use "deaths + recovered" as your denominator. Fuzzy math article proposes approximate true cases of 7.5X officially reported positives.

So if we take that 7.5x multiplier at face value, and adjust denominator accordingly. Then you can see a back-of the napkin IFR of between 0.25% and 0.4%.

So 2.5 to 4 times deadlier overall than the flu with back-of-the-napkin math. Taking the confidence interval into account, If we take that particular study's numbers for it the range is probably more like 2 to 5 times deadlier overall than the flu. 



Not quite.  The 0.1% fatality rate of the flu that is so often cited is based on symptomatic cases.  The common Flu and flu like illness also has a high % of asymptomatic cases that aren't in the calculation (see CDC flu data).  The actual IFR of flu is quite a bit lower.  Unfortunately, the media and even some scientific sites get sloppy with using the IFR term instead of CFR.
Fair point - I was trying to be charitable to the "covid ain't so bad" implication of the paper.

Bloop Bloop Reloaded

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4990 on: December 02, 2020, 05:36:16 PM »
Why are people criticising governors for saying to stay at home while the governors stay in private villas? I don't see how there's any logical inconsistency there - the governors are still staying at home, so unless they've breached travel restrictions it's not an issue - and in any case the rational thing to do is to analyse the message rather than shooting the messenger.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4991 on: December 03, 2020, 08:50:31 AM »
Why are people criticising governors for saying to stay at home while the governors stay in private villas? I don't see how there's any logical inconsistency there - the governors are still staying at home, so unless they've breached travel restrictions it's not an issue - and in any case the rational thing to do is to analyse the message rather than shooting the messenger.

It highlights staggering inequality. Kind of like when lockdowns first happened in March, and celebrities posted "We're all in this together" messages from huge homes. Even I recognize that living in a four bedroom home with just me and my sigoth is a luxury. We've been able to transform two rooms into home offices for the both of us. It's objectively harder for people living in a smaller place with more people. So while I support stay at home guidelines, I understand why people would question the authority of the message when it comes from someone so clearly not feeling the pain.

Additionally, in the states, we've had at least one governor and a high profile mayor and councilperson utilize upscale dining. This is a bad look.

This is again, where leadership comes into play. Leaders should be consumed, morning day and night, with how they can make this difficult situation less difficult for people, so they're more likely to make the choice that helps abate a public health crisis. Unfortunately, state and local officials can't print money like the federal government can. But how about drumming up support from your rich friends to help out food banks, or sending out meal delivery gift cards so that people can order in and patronize local businesses.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4992 on: December 04, 2020, 01:04:07 AM »
We are all in the same storm, we are not all in the same boat.

Bloop Bloop Reloaded

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4993 on: December 04, 2020, 01:39:21 AM »
Quote
Leaders should be consumed, morning day and night, with how they can make this difficult situation less difficult for people, so they're more likely to make the choice that helps abate a public health crisis.

As far as I'm concerned the job of a leader is to drive rational discourse about costs and benefits, QALY considerations, and enforcement measures (as appropriate). I don't want my leader pretending that he or she is in the same boat with me - as if that makes a difference in any way. The leader might live in a palace, I in a shack and someone else in a shanty...it makes no difference to the rationality (or otherwise) of measures. Nor do I think a leader has to avoid "fine dining" or living it up in a villa as long as those things aren't against the rules. But, I guess I'm not a typical citizen in that respect.

stoaX

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4994 on: December 04, 2020, 05:12:32 AM »
Quote
Leaders should be consumed, morning day and night, with how they can make this difficult situation less difficult for people, so they're more likely to make the choice that helps abate a public health crisis.

As far as I'm concerned the job of a leader is to drive rational discourse about costs and benefits, QALY considerations, and enforcement measures (as appropriate). I don't want my leader pretending that he or she is in the same boat with me - as if that makes a difference in any way. The leader might live in a palace, I in a shack and someone else in a shanty...it makes no difference to the rationality (or otherwise) of measures. Nor do I think a leader has to avoid "fine dining" or living it up in a villa as long as those things aren't against the rules. But, I guess I'm not a typical citizen in that respect.

I agree with you - that is how it should be.

I believe the governor that Mathlete is referring to is Governor Newsome of California.  It was an incident of a large, unmasked party he attended at the renowned French Laundry thrown by his best friend who also is a lobbyist. He admitted that it violated the rules his administration was promulgating.  So yeah, not a good look on many levels, but in the grand scheme of things it doesn't change the rationality or irrationality of the states policy response to the pandemic.

Bloop Bloop Reloaded

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4995 on: December 04, 2020, 06:14:29 AM »
That's not cool. Should not be having unmasked dinner parties if that breaks the rules.

I was thinking of Gov. Steve Adler who attended a private wedding reception by private jet. My understanding is that he did it a few weeks ago before the rules changed. So if he abided by rules at that time, I don't see any issues doing that while also maintaining the current "don't travel" messaging. It might be a bit extravagant but a wedding/jet being extravagant (just like the French Laundry being extravagant) doesn't add or detract from covid risk. I imagine a private jet would be less risk than most forms of transport, after all, particularly if it was with your household that you already mix with.

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4996 on: December 04, 2020, 07:44:39 AM »
That's not cool. Should not be having unmasked dinner parties if that breaks the rules.

I was thinking of Gov. Steve Adler who attended a private wedding reception by private jet. My understanding is that he did it a few weeks ago before the rules changed. So if he abided by rules at that time, I don't see any issues doing that while also maintaining the current "don't travel" messaging. It might be a bit extravagant but a wedding/jet being extravagant (just like the French Laundry being extravagant) doesn't add or detract from covid risk. I imagine a private jet would be less risk than most forms of transport, after all, particularly if it was with your household that you already mix with.

Its not about whether it breaks any formal rules or not. If he's on TV begging people to avoid contact with anyone outside their own home, he should not be having indoor dinner parties with anyone, regardless of local regulations or not. It still reeks of "rules for thee, but not for me" even if its not a legally binding request.


mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4997 on: December 05, 2020, 02:48:51 PM »
Want to remind the non Americans here that in the states, we are back up over 2,000 deaths a day and we have localities in Texas refusing orders but having to call in the national guard to deal with dead bodies.

It is not simply a calculation of, “well we can weigh 10 years of life for some old person vs young people missing out on opportunity”. People are getting sick and dying by the thousands every day. The healthcare system and now the national guard, evidently, has to deal with that.

mm1970

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4998 on: December 05, 2020, 03:18:06 PM »
Newsom

No e on the end

Kris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4999 on: December 05, 2020, 04:31:36 PM »
Want to remind the non Americans here that in the states, we are back up over 2,000 deaths a day and we have localities in Texas refusing orders but having to call in the national guard to deal with dead bodies.

It is not simply a calculation of, “well we can weigh 10 years of life for some old person vs young people missing out on opportunity”. People are getting sick and dying by the thousands every day. The healthcare system and now the national guard, evidently, has to deal with that.

Yep. We’re close to a 9/11 in deaths every day right now. In Minnesota, we are currently #1 in infections.

And yet, today, 5 blocks from me in one direction, a group of protesters stormed into a Target maskless to demonstrate their #freedumb. And 5 blocks in another direction, another group protested the stay at home order outside the governor’s mansion.

Lord, I am so, so sick of stupid people.