Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 356873 times)

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4550 on: November 05, 2020, 12:39:26 PM »


I'm not a drunk driving apologist, I'm trying to point out how ridiculous your argument is.  Perhaps I needed to add an /s since it's not obvious to you when I'm being obviously sarcastic.

Following the same logic it's absolutely ridiculous that I can be charged for merely being drunk.  I haven't crashed into anyone.  I haven't killed anyone.  I simply needed to go about my business and get my car home.  You'd probably have to wait until I drunk drove like 100 times to statistically ensure that I actually killed someone. /s

It's obvious we aren't going to change each other's minds and I don't think we are having a productive discussion.

I already told you that the equivalent would be putting others at risk by intentionally coughing on them or on public surfaces while sick (which people have been arrested for https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/grocery-store-throws-out-35k-worth-food-woman-coughed-twisted-n1169401 https://www.sacbee.com/news/nation-world/national/article244971700.html). But yes, you've forgotten that so no I don't think we're having a productive discussion.

I knew you weren't arguing in good faith (as I've stated repeatedly), but labelling it sarcasm was not a compliment I was going to hand out.

Wouldn't intentionally coughing on people be the equivalent of raging around in your car and intentionally trying to hit people (while drunk)?

And driving home from the bar, while not intentionally trying to hit people, would be the equivalent of going about your daily business while (knowingly) infected?

The crux of my entire argument is that unlike being drunk, you don't know if you are infected.  You seem to have a major issue with using the assumption that you are in fact infected (whether you actually are or not), as if the default assumption is that you are not infected.  But you also just laid out the math that the usa has had potentially up to 90M cases of infection.   I'm honestly not sure how you can simultaneously believe infections are that widespread, but also believe it's unreasonable to simply assume you are infected and take reasonable precautions.

Is anybody here advocating for walking around as if there's no issue when you're known to be COVID positive? Seems like most of the people you're going back and forth with lately have talked about doing things in public that follow state and local guidelines. Walking around while known to be COVID positive is an asshole move and isn't acceptable by any state/local guideline that I'm aware of.

I think the issue that people are raising is that it's possible to follow state/local guidelines, live relatively normal lives with reasonable precautions in place (masks when appropriate, social distancing, etc). These people aren't necessarily evil anti-maskers, and they're not necessarily ignoring the threat of a virus, or taking unnecessary risks. What one person deems unnecessary another can deem very necessary, or at least worth the risk as they see it. There's a huge difference in a person taking a reasonable risk and venturing out to do things in a manner that follows local guidelines and a person that's known positive going about life as normal. There's nothing malicious about going to church, or a sporting event or going out to eat if you're following the rules.

mizzourah2006

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4551 on: November 05, 2020, 12:48:05 PM »


I'm not a drunk driving apologist, I'm trying to point out how ridiculous your argument is.  Perhaps I needed to add an /s since it's not obvious to you when I'm being obviously sarcastic.

Following the same logic it's absolutely ridiculous that I can be charged for merely being drunk.  I haven't crashed into anyone.  I haven't killed anyone.  I simply needed to go about my business and get my car home.  You'd probably have to wait until I drunk drove like 100 times to statistically ensure that I actually killed someone. /s

It's obvious we aren't going to change each other's minds and I don't think we are having a productive discussion.

I already told you that the equivalent would be putting others at risk by intentionally coughing on them or on public surfaces while sick (which people have been arrested for https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/grocery-store-throws-out-35k-worth-food-woman-coughed-twisted-n1169401 https://www.sacbee.com/news/nation-world/national/article244971700.html). But yes, you've forgotten that so no I don't think we're having a productive discussion.

I knew you weren't arguing in good faith (as I've stated repeatedly), but labelling it sarcasm was not a compliment I was going to hand out.

Wouldn't intentionally coughing on people be the equivalent of raging around in your car and intentionally trying to hit people (while drunk)?

And driving home from the bar, while not intentionally trying to hit people, would be the equivalent of going about your daily business while (knowingly) infected?

The crux of my entire argument is that unlike being drunk, you don't know if you are infected.  You seem to have a major issue with using the assumption that you are in fact infected (whether you actually are or not), as if the default assumption is that you are not infected.  But you also just laid out the math that the usa has had potentially up to 90M cases of infection.   I'm honestly not sure how you can simultaneously believe infections are that widespread, but also believe it's unreasonable to simply assume you are infected and take reasonable precautions.

Is anybody here advocating for walking around as if there's no issue when you're known to be COVID positive? Seems like most of the people you're going back and forth with lately have talked about doing things in public that follow state and local guidelines. Walking around while known to be COVID positive is an asshole move and isn't acceptable by any state/local guideline that I'm aware of.

I think the issue that people are raising is that it's possible to follow state/local guidelines, live relatively normal lives with reasonable precautions in place (masks when appropriate, social distancing, etc). These people aren't necessarily evil anti-maskers, and they're not necessarily ignoring the threat of a virus, or taking unnecessary risks. What one person deems unnecessary another can deem very necessary, or at least worth the risk as they see it. There's a huge difference in a person taking a reasonable risk and venturing out to do things in a manner that follows local guidelines and a person that's known positive going about life as normal. There's nothing malicious about going to church, or a sporting event or going out to eat if you're following the rules.

Yes and it seems his stance is don't leave your house unless absolutely necessary, i.e. work, or food. If you do it's equivalent to drunk driving. Seems fairly reasonable to me....

PoutineLover

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4552 on: November 05, 2020, 12:49:06 PM »
I think everyone needs to find a balance that abides by local rules and policies and matches their personal assessment of risk. In places where you aren't allowed to gather (or gatherings are limited to X number of people) it's irresponsible to break that rule, even if you don't think you have COVID. But if those gatherings are allowed, then I don't think berating people for having a safe gathering is useful.

Nobody is forcing you to associate with anyone if you don't want to, but it's unfair of anyone to impose stricter than required rules on people. I work from home and if I wanted to I could order everything online and never interact with anyone, but that's not a life I want to live, and that's not the law where I live.

So I consider it safe and responsible to have one person over a time (legal), wear a mask when I shop (required) and go for walks outside without a mask (legal, and safe according to my risk tolerance and understanding of virus transmission). It keeps me sane, active and social within my local constraints. If I develop symptoms, obviously I would isolate myself and seek a test, but if I somehow caught the virus while taking those reasonable precautions, and developed an asymptomatic case, I would still not consider myself a murderer, since I never broke any laws and I took measures to protect myself and others I came into contact with.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4553 on: November 05, 2020, 01:08:30 PM »


I'm not a drunk driving apologist, I'm trying to point out how ridiculous your argument is.  Perhaps I needed to add an /s since it's not obvious to you when I'm being obviously sarcastic.

Following the same logic it's absolutely ridiculous that I can be charged for merely being drunk.  I haven't crashed into anyone.  I haven't killed anyone.  I simply needed to go about my business and get my car home.  You'd probably have to wait until I drunk drove like 100 times to statistically ensure that I actually killed someone. /s

It's obvious we aren't going to change each other's minds and I don't think we are having a productive discussion.

I already told you that the equivalent would be putting others at risk by intentionally coughing on them or on public surfaces while sick (which people have been arrested for https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/grocery-store-throws-out-35k-worth-food-woman-coughed-twisted-n1169401 https://www.sacbee.com/news/nation-world/national/article244971700.html). But yes, you've forgotten that so no I don't think we're having a productive discussion.

I knew you weren't arguing in good faith (as I've stated repeatedly), but labelling it sarcasm was not a compliment I was going to hand out.

Wouldn't intentionally coughing on people be the equivalent of raging around in your car and intentionally trying to hit people (while drunk)?

And driving home from the bar, while not intentionally trying to hit people, would be the equivalent of going about your daily business while (knowingly) infected?

The crux of my entire argument is that unlike being drunk, you don't know if you are infected. You seem to have a major issue with using the assumption that you are in fact infected (whether you actually are or not), as if the default assumption is that you are not infected.  But you also just laid out the math that the usa has had potentially up to 90M cases of infection.   I'm honestly not sure how you can simultaneously believe infections are that widespread, but also believe it's unreasonable to simply assume you are infected and take reasonable precautions.

Is anybody here advocating for walking around as if there's no issue when you're known to be COVID positive? Seems like most of the people you're going back and forth with lately have talked about doing things in public that follow state and local guidelines. Walking around while known to be COVID positive is an asshole move and isn't acceptable by any state/local guideline that I'm aware of.

I think the issue that people are raising is that it's possible to follow state/local guidelines, live relatively normal lives with reasonable precautions in place (masks when appropriate, social distancing, etc). These people aren't necessarily evil anti-maskers, and they're not necessarily ignoring the threat of a virus, or taking unnecessary risks. What one person deems unnecessary another can deem very necessary, or at least worth the risk as they see it. There's a huge difference in a person taking a reasonable risk and venturing out to do things in a manner that follows local guidelines and a person that's known positive going about life as normal. There's nothing malicious about going to church, or a sporting event or going out to eat if you're following the rules.

Ok so we are all talking right past each other.  I completely agree there is no malicious intent attending church or a sporting event, but unfortunately the virus doesn't discriminate based on your intentions.  It doesn't say "oh well, this guy was wanting to practice his faith, so I'm going to refrain from infecting his congregation". 

My counterpoint is that there is also no malicious intent from people just trying to get home from a party. The risk to others is well documented, but there is certainly no malicious intent. 

You know the activity you are engaging in is reckless and risky.   Not only risky for yourself, but you are potentially endangering other people against their will, and you could accomplish the same goal with a bit more effort and coordination.  Legality aside, the responsible thing to do is mitigate that unnecessary risk for other people's sake.

The fact that you don't know which activity I'm specifically referring to in the previous paragraph is my entire point.  I'm not advocating that no one can leave their house, and anyone that claims I am, please provide the quotes I said that. 

mizzourah2006

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4554 on: November 05, 2020, 01:16:31 PM »


I'm not a drunk driving apologist, I'm trying to point out how ridiculous your argument is.  Perhaps I needed to add an /s since it's not obvious to you when I'm being obviously sarcastic.

Following the same logic it's absolutely ridiculous that I can be charged for merely being drunk.  I haven't crashed into anyone.  I haven't killed anyone.  I simply needed to go about my business and get my car home.  You'd probably have to wait until I drunk drove like 100 times to statistically ensure that I actually killed someone. /s

It's obvious we aren't going to change each other's minds and I don't think we are having a productive discussion.

I already told you that the equivalent would be putting others at risk by intentionally coughing on them or on public surfaces while sick (which people have been arrested for https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/grocery-store-throws-out-35k-worth-food-woman-coughed-twisted-n1169401 https://www.sacbee.com/news/nation-world/national/article244971700.html). But yes, you've forgotten that so no I don't think we're having a productive discussion.

I knew you weren't arguing in good faith (as I've stated repeatedly), but labelling it sarcasm was not a compliment I was going to hand out.

Wouldn't intentionally coughing on people be the equivalent of raging around in your car and intentionally trying to hit people (while drunk)?

And driving home from the bar, while not intentionally trying to hit people, would be the equivalent of going about your daily business while (knowingly) infected?

The crux of my entire argument is that unlike being drunk, you don't know if you are infected. You seem to have a major issue with using the assumption that you are in fact infected (whether you actually are or not), as if the default assumption is that you are not infected.  But you also just laid out the math that the usa has had potentially up to 90M cases of infection.   I'm honestly not sure how you can simultaneously believe infections are that widespread, but also believe it's unreasonable to simply assume you are infected and take reasonable precautions.

Is anybody here advocating for walking around as if there's no issue when you're known to be COVID positive? Seems like most of the people you're going back and forth with lately have talked about doing things in public that follow state and local guidelines. Walking around while known to be COVID positive is an asshole move and isn't acceptable by any state/local guideline that I'm aware of.

I think the issue that people are raising is that it's possible to follow state/local guidelines, live relatively normal lives with reasonable precautions in place (masks when appropriate, social distancing, etc). These people aren't necessarily evil anti-maskers, and they're not necessarily ignoring the threat of a virus, or taking unnecessary risks. What one person deems unnecessary another can deem very necessary, or at least worth the risk as they see it. There's a huge difference in a person taking a reasonable risk and venturing out to do things in a manner that follows local guidelines and a person that's known positive going about life as normal. There's nothing malicious about going to church, or a sporting event or going out to eat if you're following the rules.

Ok so we are all talking right past each other.  I completely agree there is no malicious intent attending church or a sporting event, but unfortunately the virus doesn't discriminate based on your intentions.  It doesn't say "oh well, this guy was wanting to practice his faith, so I'm going to refrain from infecting his congregation". 

My counterpoint is that there is also no malicious intent from people just trying to get home from a party. The risk to others is well documented, but there is certainly no malicious intent. 

You know the activity you are engaging in is reckless and risky.   Not only risky for yourself, but you are potentially endangering other people against their will, and you could accomplish the same goal with a bit more effort and coordination.  Legality aside, the responsible thing to do is mitigate that unnecessary risk for other people's sake.

The fact that you don't know which activity I'm specifically referring to in the previous paragraph is my entire point.  I'm not advocating that no one can leave their house, and anyone that claims I am, please provide the quotes I said that.

So then what exactly are you advocating? You have described any behavior where risk is associated with transmission as equivalent to drunk driving. Describe a behavior besides staying home all the time that doesn't come with some risk attached to it with regards to this virus?

My guess is it's ok to do all the behaviors you currently engage in...but for someone that does something you deem too risky that's where the line needs to be drawn. Is it ok that my wife goes into the office? Or is that equivalent to drunk driving?
« Last Edit: November 05, 2020, 01:20:00 PM by mizzourah2006 »

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4555 on: November 05, 2020, 01:21:55 PM »
I'm advocating that people follow the recommendations of health experts.

Wash your hands regularly.  If you have to be around other people (like for work or to get groceries), wear masks and try to distance where it's possible.  Don't have big parties.  Go out of your house regularly . . . go for walks, go for bike rides, but stay away from others wherever possible.  Don't do stupid shit (eating in a restaurant, having a drink at a bar, watching a movie in a theater, having a gigantic family gathering).  Don't assume that because you feel OK you're not infected and all is good.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4556 on: November 05, 2020, 01:29:35 PM »
So then what exactly are you advocating? You have described any behavior where risk is associated with transmission as equivalent to drunk driving. Describe a behavior besides staying home all the time that doesn't come with some risk attached to it with regards to this virus?

My guess is it's ok to do all the behaviors you currently engage in...but for someone that does something you deem too risky that's where the line needs to be drawn. Is it ok that my wife goes into the office? Or is that equivalent to drunk driving?

So rather than reading what I've actually been saying for the last 3 pages you are just going to guess at what I mean?  And I'm the one trolling and arguing in bad faith?

What I advocate is following the public health guidelines.  Wear a fucking mask in public.  Don't attend large gatherings.  Wash your hands.  Don't get together with an endless string of friends and relatives.  Not following those guidelines is putting other people at risk.

mizzourah2006

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4557 on: November 05, 2020, 01:35:47 PM »
So then what exactly are you advocating? You have described any behavior where risk is associated with transmission as equivalent to drunk driving. Describe a behavior besides staying home all the time that doesn't come with some risk attached to it with regards to this virus?

My guess is it's ok to do all the behaviors you currently engage in...but for someone that does something you deem too risky that's where the line needs to be drawn. Is it ok that my wife goes into the office? Or is that equivalent to drunk driving?

So rather than reading what I've actually been saying for the last 3 pages you are just going to guess at what I mean?  And I'm the one trolling and arguing in bad faith?

What I advocate is following the public health guidelines.  Wear a fucking mask in public.  Don't attend large gatherings.  Wash your hands.  Don't get together with an endless string of friends and relatives.  Not following those guidelines is putting other people at risk.

Seems that following those guidelines is still putting people at risk, no? Oddly enough people were still contracting the virus in areas of the country that were locked down pretty hardcore in April and May. And who in this entire thread has advocated for huge parties, not wearing masks, and getting together with endless strings of friends and relatives? Or are you just having fun preaching to the choir? I guess this is turning into an "anti-mustachian wall of shame" thread where we just talk about some "friends" we saw on FB or "relatives" we know that are violating said guidelines and then talk shit about them. I guess I missed that memo. Sorry, carry on.

I always forget I love how judgmental people on this forum are :)

charis

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4558 on: November 05, 2020, 02:46:10 PM »
What I advocate is following the public health guidelines.  Wear a fucking mask in public.  Don't attend large gatherings.  Wash your hands.  Don't get together with an endless string of friends and relatives.  Not following those guidelines is putting other people at risk.

At what point in this thread has anyone suggested not doing these things?  Also, the public health guidelines do allow for relatively large gatherings, if they aren't too large or outside and socially distanced.  What about kids who are in school and the school staff? Those risks are ok, right?

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4559 on: November 05, 2020, 03:34:28 PM »

It's certainly correct that not having an interaction is safer than having one, but the odds of getting the virus from quick, low contact interactions is pretty low. CDC says "high risk" of transmission requires somebody to be within 6ft for about 15 minutes. There aren't many interactions between the general public and service workers that fall into that category, especially now with everybody living on opposite sides of a plexiglass wall. The service workers are probably more likely to contract the virus from each other in the break room or when they share a car for a smoke break than they are with a short transactional situation. Since we seem to be trusting the CDC's assessment of the current virus, then you're not likely to get sick going to the store, and you're not likely to make anyone else sick either so long as you keep your distance and mask up.

I'm "essential" and have never stopped working on site. There are a few hundred employees per day in my facility from all over my region. My employer follows CDC protocols, so masks at pretty much all times, social distancing where possible, and if somebody has at least 2 COVID symptoms, they're sent home and a test is performed. But they take no other precautions while waiting for test results to come in (which can take 48hrs from time of test), and unless they test positive and you can prove that you were within 6 ft of them for 15 minutes, it's business as usual. If you meet the "High Risk" to exposure category by being within close proximity to a positive case, but you show no symptoms, they're probably not sending you home either. Ask me how I know. We get an email once or twice per week about a new person that was in my facility testing positive for COVID, but there have been zero known cases of spread between employees with these measures in place.

My overall point being that the CDC says it takes both time and close proximity to a positive person to transmit this virus in normal settings. Those situations aren't likely to occur with most service jobs, so you can feel good about reducing their risk by staying home and having things delivered or whatever but the reduction in risk for you or the service worker isn't really that great because there wasn't much risk for either party to begin with. Most of my friends that are taking those actions are doing it for themselves first, with any benefit to others as a fortunate side effect rather than a primary focus. That's privilege, not sacrificing for the greater good. It can't hurt to stay home of course, but it's pretty much always safer for everybody if we all just stay home right? Driving to some event carries risk, not just for you but also for those on the road with you. There's risk of transmitting some bug to others while at that event or a risk of catching it yourself. There's risk in every part of living, and at some point we have to figure out how to go out and live with this virus or become a bunch of wealthy agoraphobes afraid to leave our homes for the fact that some amount of risk exists outside of those walls.

*applause*

Bolded parts for reiteration for those who glossed over the very important details in this post. CDC contacts "close contacts" only (those < 6 ft for > 15 mins), not everyone you passed on the walking path, in the cereal aisle, or your Uber Eats driver, etc.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2020, 03:36:41 PM by fuzzy math »

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4560 on: November 05, 2020, 03:56:13 PM »
What I advocate is following the public health guidelines.  Wear a fucking mask in public.  Don't attend large gatherings.  Wash your hands.  Don't get together with an endless string of friends and relatives.  Not following those guidelines is putting other people at risk.

At what point in this thread has anyone suggested not doing these things?  Also, the public health guidelines do allow for relatively large gatherings, if they aren't too large or outside and socially distanced.  What about kids who are in school and the school staff? Those risks are ok, right?

Literally from a few days ago:

This is an excellent article about masks: https://www.meehanmd.com/blog/2020-10-10-an-evidence-based-scientific-analysis-of-why-masks-are-ineffective-unnecessary-and-harmful/

If anyone smarter than I am wants to tell me why it's wrong, I'm open to the discourse. But it seems to me that the scientific evidence over the last 40 years is crystal clear that they do not work on a community wide basis.

Anecdotally, Ohio has had a mask mandate since June 23. We are now seeing our surge despite several polls showing 90% compliance in public. My personal observation is that I maybe see 1-2 people in any given store or setting without masks.

The same is going on in several other states and European countries. Austria, Germany, France, Spain have had mask mandates for many months with very high compliance, and they are all now seeing surges.

It's all quite a sad farce that this is looking at some fringe opinion instead of the reality. We can acknowledge it and try to make better policy or continue on this idiotic path.

Go back further and this thread is chock full of skeptics.

And I'm not railing against anyone in particular in this thread, more the society in general, which absolutely are not following those guidelines 100%.  I'm pretty sure if you go back through this thread you'll find specific examples, posted by me, of people in my area not following the basic guidelines.  I even posted a picture of a huge party my neighbors had over the summer.   

I've never claimed to have all the answers.  I don't know if schools should be open, or to what extent, or what precautions need to be taken.  But several of my nieces have gone back to school, and out of caution we (and other family members) have stopped regular visitation with them. 
 

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4561 on: November 05, 2020, 04:05:24 PM »

Quote
Herd immunity by Jan would be amazing (as long as we're far enough along that its conceivable, instead of implying that we're going to get slaughtered for the next 3 months).

You're assuming that herd immunity is possible.  Probably best to get that confirmed before you risk millions of lives.

Yes I personally have the power and the will to risk millions of lives and I personally advocated that as evidenced in the bolded text where I stated exactly the opposite.

You are intentionally blind and dickish for the purpose of putting false words into people's mouths for what you see as a cheap win, without providing anything of substance in return.
You are free to read my other comments about IFR and inferred case rates, and so you can understand that my comment is that we're already hopefully close to herd immunity. If you honestly think I'm advocating for tons of additional people to die, let me know so I can block you.


LightTripper

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4562 on: November 05, 2020, 04:37:54 PM »
I'm guilty of saying the virus will be over at the end of the election. I don't think the virus is a hoax and I am not an antimasker.   What I meant by that was not that the virus would go away, but the fear mongering would.  It would no longer be politically expedient to make a major deal out of it.  In fact it would be detrimental.  Now Biden is in charge of "making it all go away" and we will see how that goes.

As somebody living in a country that hasn't been going through an election (in fact we have 4 years left before the next election, and a stonking government majority), Coronavirus is still very much in the news, top of the news, every day, and top of mind for pretty much everyone in the country (certainly most people) - whether directly or through its impact on the economy.

And yes, there are sensible debates to be had about how we should react.  But no, I don't see President Trump's position as being part of that sensible debate.  This article is a very good recent summary of the state of the debate here (and why in the author's view both extremes of that debate are wrong: which I agree with):
https://timharford.com/2020/11/lockdown-sceptics-vs-zero-covid-whos-got-it-right/

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4563 on: November 05, 2020, 04:53:03 PM »

Quote
Herd immunity by Jan would be amazing (as long as we're far enough along that its conceivable, instead of implying that we're going to get slaughtered for the next 3 months).

You're assuming that herd immunity is possible.  Probably best to get that confirmed before you risk millions of lives.

Yes I personally have the power and the will to risk millions of lives and I personally advocated that as evidenced in the bolded text where I stated exactly the opposite.

You are intentionally blind and dickish for the purpose of putting false words into people's mouths for what you see as a cheap win, without providing anything of substance in return.
You are free to read my other comments about IFR and inferred case rates, and so you can understand that my comment is that we're already hopefully close to herd immunity. If you honestly think I'm advocating for tons of additional people to die, let me know so I can block you.

There is no credible science backing the claim that the US is anywhere close to the levels of infection that grant herd immunity right now.  To get there many more millions of people would need to contract covid.  Which means many more hundreds of thousands need to die.  When you say 'Herd immunity by Jan would be amazing' that is exactly what you are advocating for.  I am glad that you are powerless to implement this idea.

But the unaddressed point from my post still stands.  We don't even know if herd immunity randomly contracted through wildly unchecked contagion over a period of a few years will even work*.  We don't know how long any immunity that may be granted after contracting the disease will be protective.






*Herd immunity if everyone can get injected with a vaccine close together is a different matter, and I suspect much more likely to be effective.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4564 on: November 05, 2020, 06:07:10 PM »
Our hospitals are full again here (MN), refusing transports from our stupid neighbor states (we are surrounded by Covid idiots).

So yay!

And Thanksgiving hasn't even hit yet.

...but we had the election.  This whole thing was a hoax just to make Trump look bad.

How many people do you know that truly think that? Serious question. Or do you just think that it's funny to say because you heard somewhere on the internet that some Trump supporters had said something along those lines?
2 of my wifeís aunts, her father, one of my sisters, her husband and a bunch of my co-workers are all in the camp of it is a hoax and we will hear nothing about it after the election.

There have been multiple times at work recently when I have said hi and asked someone how they are doing and the first thing out of their mouth is a rant on the virus and how it is a hoax and will go away after the election... I am like ummmm ok well have a nice day and move on.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Iíve heard it repeatedly (maybe daily), itís usually combined with a ďhow many people do you know that have covid?Ē Implying that no one has it if I donít know them personally. Then they might go off on the doctors get a payment for diagnosing a covid case.

It kind of depends who is around you, what you get exposed to. I work with the public, and even though Iím in a blue area, I feel I mostly encounter these types of of theories. They do wear masks though, so I appreciate that.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2020, 06:08:50 PM by Dictionary Time »

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4565 on: November 05, 2020, 06:26:05 PM »
I'm advocating that people follow the recommendations of health experts.

Wash your hands regularly.  If you have to be around other people (like for work or to get groceries), wear masks and try to distance where it's possible.  Don't have big parties.  Go out of your house regularly . . . go for walks, go for bike rides, but stay away from others wherever possible.  Don't do stupid shit (eating in a restaurant, having a drink at a bar, watching a movie in a theater, having a gigantic family gathering).  Don't assume that because you feel OK you're not infected and all is good.

What if my local health department, in conjunction with the governor, allows restaurants at half capacity, gyms open, weddings at 60% facility capacity with max at six per table? Am I allowed to go to those, or do I have to follow your health experts?

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4566 on: November 05, 2020, 06:28:48 PM »
Edit -- didn't catch date on the article; don't want to spread misinformation.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2020, 08:11:19 AM by ReadySetMillionaire »

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4567 on: November 05, 2020, 06:35:57 PM »
Our hospitals are full again here (MN), refusing transports from our stupid neighbor states (we are surrounded by Covid idiots).

So yay!

And Thanksgiving hasn't even hit yet.

...but we had the election.  This whole thing was a hoax just to make Trump look bad.

How many people do you know that truly think that? Serious question. Or do you just think that it's funny to say because you heard somewhere on the internet that some Trump supporters had said something along those lines?
2 of my wifeís aunts, her father, one of my sisters, her husband and a bunch of my co-workers are all in the camp of it is a hoax and we will hear nothing about it after the election.

There have been multiple times at work recently when I have said hi and asked someone how they are doing and the first thing out of their mouth is a rant on the virus and how it is a hoax and will go away after the election... I am like ummmm ok well have a nice day and move on.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Iíve heard it repeatedly (maybe daily), itís usually combined with a ďhow many people do you know that have covid?Ē Implying that no one has it if I donít know them personally. Then they might go off on the doctors get a payment for diagnosing a covid case.

It kind of depends who is around you, what you get exposed to. I work with the public, and even though Iím in a blue area, I feel I mostly encounter these types of of theories. They do wear masks though, so I appreciate that.
Funny that you mention the I do not even know anyone that has had it much less died from it crowd.

I have had that mentioned multiple times at work and pointed out that my aunt and my step dad passed away due to covid and that the guy who sits 2 offices from us just returned to work after being in the hospital for 2 months with covid and the person in my team that spent a week in the hospital with Covid and the subsequent people in my group that got it from him.

Or the many other people at work that have got it but people do not know about since it is private health information and they do not share the info at work.


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OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4568 on: November 05, 2020, 06:54:56 PM »
Our hospitals are full again here (MN), refusing transports from our stupid neighbor states (we are surrounded by Covid idiots).

So yay!

And Thanksgiving hasn't even hit yet.

...but we had the election.  This whole thing was a hoax just to make Trump look bad.

How many people do you know that truly think that? Serious question. Or do you just think that it's funny to say because you heard somewhere on the internet that some Trump supporters had said something along those lines?
2 of my wifeís aunts, her father, one of my sisters, her husband and a bunch of my co-workers are all in the camp of it is a hoax and we will hear nothing about it after the election.

There have been multiple times at work recently when I have said hi and asked someone how they are doing and the first thing out of their mouth is a rant on the virus and how it is a hoax and will go away after the election... I am like ummmm ok well have a nice day and move on.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Iíve heard it repeatedly (maybe daily), itís usually combined with a ďhow many people do you know that have covid?Ē Implying that no one has it if I donít know them personally. Then they might go off on the doctors get a payment for diagnosing a covid case.

It kind of depends who is around you, what you get exposed to. I work with the public, and even though Iím in a blue area, I feel I mostly encounter these types of of theories. They do wear masks though, so I appreciate that.


Ugh, yes. I'm so sick of the bullshit. Our state just put flags at half-mast in honor of a former state legislator (and a friend of several friends) who died of COVID-19. I met a woman at the polls on Tuesday who lost her mom to COVID-19. The husband of my best grade school friend has it now, and my former boss's son recently recovered from it (after attending a fairly small house party). Several of my cousins had it in late August after a family funeral (that I didn't attend).

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4569 on: November 05, 2020, 07:01:25 PM »
I'm advocating that people follow the recommendations of health experts.

Wash your hands regularly.  If you have to be around other people (like for work or to get groceries), wear masks and try to distance where it's possible.  Don't have big parties.  Go out of your house regularly . . . go for walks, go for bike rides, but stay away from others wherever possible.  Don't do stupid shit (eating in a restaurant, having a drink at a bar, watching a movie in a theater, having a gigantic family gathering).  Don't assume that because you feel OK you're not infected and all is good.

What if my local health department, in conjunction with the governor, allows restaurants at half capacity, gyms open, weddings at 60% facility capacity with max at six per table? Am I allowed to go to those, or do I have to follow your health experts?

There's a bit of what you're describing that sounds a little odd with me.  'in conjunction with the governor'.  The governor shouldn't be making an important health decision when he has an extremely strong incentive to put economic issues above the lives of people.  But sure, if your chief medical officer is saying that the medical evidence indicates it's perfectly safe to go out and party then knock yourself out.

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4570 on: November 05, 2020, 07:38:45 PM »
So then what exactly are you advocating? You have described any behavior where risk is associated with transmission as equivalent to drunk driving. Describe a behavior besides staying home all the time that doesn't come with some risk attached to it with regards to this virus?

My guess is it's ok to do all the behaviors you currently engage in...but for someone that does something you deem too risky that's where the line needs to be drawn. Is it ok that my wife goes into the office? Or is that equivalent to drunk driving?

What I advocate is following the public health guidelines.  Wear a fucking mask in public.  Don't attend large gatherings.  Wash your hands.  Don't get together with an endless string of friends and relatives.  Not following those guidelines is putting other people at risk.

What "other people" are being put at risk in this situation? Every adult with the faculty to make their own choices is responsible for their exposure to this virus. If there's a large gathering (whether it's permitted by local guidelines or not) isn't everybody there signing off on the risk simply by being there? If you're seeing visitors, aren't you accepting some risk that they might be asymptomatic? If you choose to go to church rather than watching the service on their website, you're taking on the risk of increased exposure, and so is everybody else that made the choice to be there in person. If you're asymptomatic and clueless that you have COVID and go to that church service and another person gets infected, how much of that is your fault and how much of it was theirs since they knew the risks going in? How would you even know that it was you that infected them and not some other person? In that scenario, nobody knew it was happening, but everyone involved knew that it could happen and still made their choice. It's hard for me to draw judgment on anybody that's willing to accept increased risk so long as everybody involved is aware of the risks. Who are these people that aren't aware of the risks after 9 months of this?

Outside of the framework of this virus, we're all responsible for risks we expose ourselves to. Like I've already said, simply driving to work is a risk not only for yourself, but you're increasing the risk for everybody else on the road as well. That's fine because they're doing the same thing to you and making the same choices. We all make judgement calls based on our risk tolerance everyday that may increase the risk for others to have a negative outcome. And others make calls everyday that may increase your risk. The only way to truly eliminate these risks (to yourself and others) is to remove yourself from society by staying home. Even then, if you're staying home and having everything delivered, it's still going to increase risk for the people delivering it of being in an accident, or slipping and falling on some ice, or whatever.

Davnasty

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4571 on: November 05, 2020, 08:08:44 PM »
Interesting that Cuomo is not going to order another shelter-in-place, noting that the "panic" it causes is "a bigger problem than the virus."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/cuomo-says-he-wont-approve-coronavirus-shelter-in-place-order-for-new-york-city.html

People saying this in April, who advocated for a more targeted policy based on the data they were seeing from Asia and Europe, were of course unsympathetic assholes that just wanted millions of people to die.  Oh well.

You realize this article is from March 18?

If so, I'm not sure what you're trying to say.

For the record, he changed his mind two days later:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/new-york-gov-cuomo-orders-100percent-of-non-essential-businesses-to-work-from-home.html

MoseyingAlong

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4572 on: November 05, 2020, 08:19:30 PM »
So then what exactly are you advocating? You have described any behavior where risk is associated with transmission as equivalent to drunk driving. Describe a behavior besides staying home all the time that doesn't come with some risk attached to it with regards to this virus?

My guess is it's ok to do all the behaviors you currently engage in...but for someone that does something you deem too risky that's where the line needs to be drawn. Is it ok that my wife goes into the office? Or is that equivalent to drunk driving?

What I advocate is following the public health guidelines.  Wear a fucking mask in public.  Don't attend large gatherings.  Wash your hands.  Don't get together with an endless string of friends and relatives.  Not following those guidelines is putting other people at risk.

What "other people" are being put at risk in this situation? Every adult with the faculty to make their own choices is responsible for their exposure to this virus. If there's a large gathering (whether it's permitted by local guidelines or not) isn't everybody there signing off on the risk simply by being there? If you're seeing visitors, aren't you accepting some risk that they might be asymptomatic? If you choose to go to church rather than watching the service on their website, you're taking on the risk of increased exposure, and so is everybody else that made the choice to be there in person. If you're asymptomatic and clueless that you have COVID and go to that church service and another person gets infected, how much of that is your fault and how much of it was theirs since they knew the risks going in? How would you even know that it was you that infected them and not some other person? In that scenario, nobody knew it was happening, but everyone involved knew that it could happen and still made their choice. It's hard for me to draw judgment on anybody that's willing to accept increased risk so long as everybody involved is aware of the risks. Who are these people that aren't aware of the risks after 9 months of this?

Outside of the framework of this virus, we're all responsible for risks we expose ourselves to. Like I've already said, simply driving to work is a risk not only for yourself, but you're increasing the risk for everybody else on the road as well. That's fine because they're doing the same thing to you and making the same choices. We all make judgement calls based on our risk tolerance everyday that may increase the risk for others to have a negative outcome. And others make calls everyday that may increase your risk. The only way to truly eliminate these risks (to yourself and others) is to remove yourself from society by staying home. Even then, if you're staying home and having everything delivered, it's still going to increase risk for the people delivering it of being in an accident, or slipping and falling on some ice, or whatever.

+1

Really it's balancing risks. There are risks to staying home and missing church/gatherings/etc.  Loneliness, weaker social network, more sedentary time, etc., etc. etc..

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4573 on: November 05, 2020, 10:41:05 PM »
This is ridiculous and I don't understand the communication break down.  I work at an essential business, with 80 other people. We never shut down. I go grocery shopping with hundreds of other people. I have to get my car repaired. I have to do other essential things. 

The vast majority of my coworkers don't wear masks at work.  Many of them wear maga hats and openly talk of the virus being a hoax.  Many don't follow proper hand washing procedures, including after taking a shit.

My county has mandated mask usage indoors, but at the grocery store there are always several people with no mask on, or a mask hanging off their ear, or used as a chin diaper.  I wear my mask, but my mask is to protect you from me, not vice versa. 

I see neighbors hosting large indoor gatherings.  Or maybe just parking 20 random cars on their lawn? It's been going on non stop since March. 

New case numbers in the usa just shattered the day old record, which shattered the previous day old record.  The exact same trend is happening in michigan, and many other states as well.  I wish my portfolio returns looked as good as the new case graph.

All of those people are assholes and are putting people at risk in my opinion.  If you think it's their right to attend a super spreader rally, host a large party, fraternize with dozens of coworkers without wearing masks or observing suggested social distancing or hand washing guidelines, and then stand directly next to me sans mask while I'm at work or shopping or some other essential task I have to perform then we disagree. 

alsoknownasDean

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4574 on: November 06, 2020, 12:31:59 AM »
So then what exactly are you advocating? You have described any behavior where risk is associated with transmission as equivalent to drunk driving. Describe a behavior besides staying home all the time that doesn't come with some risk attached to it with regards to this virus?

My guess is it's ok to do all the behaviors you currently engage in...but for someone that does something you deem too risky that's where the line needs to be drawn. Is it ok that my wife goes into the office? Or is that equivalent to drunk driving?

What I advocate is following the public health guidelines.  Wear a fucking mask in public.  Don't attend large gatherings.  Wash your hands.  Don't get together with an endless string of friends and relatives.  Not following those guidelines is putting other people at risk.

What "other people" are being put at risk in this situation? Every adult with the faculty to make their own choices is responsible for their exposure to this virus. If there's a large gathering (whether it's permitted by local guidelines or not) isn't everybody there signing off on the risk simply by being there?

Everybody there at said gathering aren't the only ones bearing that risk, but they're also putting at risk anyone they may contact after that gathering while pre-symptomatic or early in their symptomatic phase, along with anyone those people contact. If enough people have the attitude that the rules don't apply to them, then everyone is at risk.

If a significantly large group of people decides it's their right to run red lights because 'fuck the government', then it's not only them they're putting at risk when out on the roads.

The choices are to do nothing and let the virus run rampant, or to take action to prevent further spread of the virus. Both have consequences, but I'm glad the latter choice was chosen here. 15 active cases in the entire state and no new cases for the last week.

mizzourah2006

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4575 on: November 06, 2020, 05:51:53 AM »
Sounds like you need a new job frugal.

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4576 on: November 06, 2020, 08:19:34 AM »
This is ridiculous and I don't understand the communication break down.  I work at an essential business, with 80 other people. We never shut down. I go grocery shopping with hundreds of other people. I have to get my car repaired. I have to do other essential things. 

The vast majority of my coworkers don't wear masks at work.  Many of them wear maga hats and openly talk of the virus being a hoax.  Many don't follow proper hand washing procedures, including after taking a shit.

My county has mandated mask usage indoors, but at the grocery store there are always several people with no mask on, or a mask hanging off their ear, or used as a chin diaper.  I wear my mask, but my mask is to protect you from me, not vice versa. 

I see neighbors hosting large indoor gatherings.  Or maybe just parking 20 random cars on their lawn? It's been going on non stop since March. 

New case numbers in the usa just shattered the day old record, which shattered the previous day old record.  The exact same trend is happening in michigan, and many other states as well.  I wish my portfolio returns looked as good as the new case graph.

All of those people are assholes and are putting people at risk in my opinion.  If you think it's their right to attend a super spreader rally, host a large party, fraternize with dozens of coworkers without wearing masks or observing suggested social distancing or hand washing guidelines, and then stand directly next to me sans mask while I'm at work or shopping or some other essential task I have to perform then we disagree.

So after 20 pages of bitching about how you're holier than thou, it turns out we all basically have the same opinion? Look, your work and your neighborhood suck but you've been projecting your hate about them on everyone here, as if we're not allowed to work or grocery shop or go to a restaurant while following guidelines.

BTW, if your coworkers don't wash their hands after shitting, your work was a bad place to be before COVID. Are you in a field where you could find an equivalent job in your area? Or would you consider moving to a more civilized area?

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4577 on: November 06, 2020, 08:37:15 AM »
This is ridiculous and I don't understand the communication break down.  I work at an essential business, with 80 other people. We never shut down. I go grocery shopping with hundreds of other people. I have to get my car repaired. I have to do other essential things. 

The vast majority of my coworkers don't wear masks at work.  Many of them wear maga hats and openly talk of the virus being a hoax.  Many don't follow proper hand washing procedures, including after taking a shit.

My county has mandated mask usage indoors, but at the grocery store there are always several people with no mask on, or a mask hanging off their ear, or used as a chin diaper.  I wear my mask, but my mask is to protect you from me, not vice versa. 

I see neighbors hosting large indoor gatherings.  Or maybe just parking 20 random cars on their lawn? It's been going on non stop since March. 

New case numbers in the usa just shattered the day old record, which shattered the previous day old record.  The exact same trend is happening in michigan, and many other states as well.  I wish my portfolio returns looked as good as the new case graph.

All of those people are assholes and are putting people at risk in my opinion.  If you think it's their right to attend a super spreader rally, host a large party, fraternize with dozens of coworkers without wearing masks or observing suggested social distancing or hand washing guidelines, and then stand directly next to me sans mask while I'm at work or shopping or some other essential task I have to perform then we disagree.

So after 20 pages of bitching about how you're holier than thou, it turns out we all basically have the same opinion? Look, your work and your neighborhood suck but you've been projecting your hate about them on everyone here, as if we're not allowed to work or grocery shop or go to a restaurant while following guidelines.

BTW, if your coworkers don't wash their hands after shitting, your work was a bad place to be before COVID. Are you in a field where you could find an equivalent job in your area? Or would you consider moving to a more civilized area?

I still don't understand the communication break down, so if that's what you gleaned from all my posts then sure. 

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4578 on: November 06, 2020, 08:59:47 AM »
This is ridiculous and I don't understand the communication break down.  I work at an essential business, with 80 other people. We never shut down. I go grocery shopping with hundreds of other people. I have to get my car repaired. I have to do other essential things. 

The vast majority of my coworkers don't wear masks at work.  Many of them wear maga hats and openly talk of the virus being a hoax.  Many don't follow proper hand washing procedures, including after taking a shit.

My county has mandated mask usage indoors, but at the grocery store there are always several people with no mask on, or a mask hanging off their ear, or used as a chin diaper.  I wear my mask, but my mask is to protect you from me, not vice versa. 

I see neighbors hosting large indoor gatherings.  Or maybe just parking 20 random cars on their lawn? It's been going on non stop since March. 

New case numbers in the usa just shattered the day old record, which shattered the previous day old record.  The exact same trend is happening in michigan, and many other states as well.  I wish my portfolio returns looked as good as the new case graph.

All of those people are assholes and are putting people at risk in my opinion.  If you think it's their right to attend a super spreader rally, host a large party, fraternize with dozens of coworkers without wearing masks or observing suggested social distancing or hand washing guidelines, and then stand directly next to me sans mask while I'm at work or shopping or some other essential task I have to perform then we disagree.

I live/work in a similar environment, although perhaps not quite as much disregard by the sound of it. Are you able to limit the time spent within 6ft of these people at work, or at the store, etc? Again, CDC says that it's not "high risk" of transmission unless you're within 6ft for 15 minutes. Most people have some control over their distance and/or the time they spend in close proximity to others, especially in public. Masks do help the wearer too, so obviously keeping yours on is better than nothing (I'm sure you're doing this, just mentioned it because you said that the mask helps the person on the otherside and not the wearer). Wearing masks and following the 6ft/15 minute rule at my employer (about 5 times the number of people than yours) has resulted in zero cases of employee to employee transfer. I can completely understand being frustrated with those that aren't following local guidelines. But I see no reason to judge people that are following guidelines but simply doing things that you find too risky.

Quote from: alsoknownasDean
Everybody there at said gathering aren't the only ones bearing that risk, but they're also putting at risk anyone they may contact after that gathering while pre-symptomatic or early in their symptomatic phase, along with anyone those people contact. If enough people have the attitude that the rules don't apply to them, then everyone is at risk.

If a significantly large group of people decides it's their right to run red lights because 'fuck the government', then it's not only them they're putting at risk when out on the roads.

The choices are to do nothing and let the virus run rampant, or to take action to prevent further spread of the virus. Both have consequences, but I'm glad the latter choice was chosen here. 15 active cases in the entire state and no new cases for the last week.

Again, anybody out in public that might be encountering anybody else is responsible for their risk exposure. They're accepting some risk simply by being there, just as they accept some risk of a traffic accident by driving, etc. I'm not trying to excuse reckless behavior on the road or in regards to the virus, but transmitting a virus is not entirely the fault of a single person. It takes two to tango. If you're concerned about the possibility of catching the virus, or people exposing you to it, then you should be doing anything in your power to reduce the chance of that occurring (limiting trips, keeping distance, wearing masks, avoiding visitors, etc). If you're not doing those things, then you're clearly not that concerned.

Our CDC has stated that there's very low risk of transmitting the virus unless a person is within 6ft of a positive person for 15 minutes or more. These encounters are pretty uncommon in public, especially in the current environment. Assuming the CDC is right, that person that walked past you in the grocery aisle or held the door for you in the gas station isn't likely to spread the virus in such a short interaction. Nearly all employees in a public facing position are wearing masks, and most people are following local mask mandates where applicable. Plus there's a lot of signage about distancing, tables and seats are spaced appropriately (limiting capacity) and there are often physical barriers in place to add another level of protection for everybody involved. The person doing those risky things just isn't that likely to transmit the virus to an unwitting person against their will, especially if that unwitting person is doing their part too by wearing a mask (which they presumably are since they're trying to avoid the virus).
« Last Edit: November 06, 2020, 09:01:48 AM by Paper Chaser »

mm1970

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4579 on: November 06, 2020, 11:24:14 AM »
Quote
Everybody there at said gathering aren't the only ones bearing that risk, but they're also putting at risk anyone they may contact after that gathering while pre-symptomatic or early in their symptomatic phase, along with anyone those people contact. If enough people have the attitude that the rules don't apply to them, then everyone is at risk.

If a significantly large group of people decides it's their right to run red lights because 'fuck the government', then it's not only them they're putting at risk when out on the roads.

The choices are to do nothing and let the virus run rampant, or to take action to prevent further spread of the virus. Both have consequences, but I'm glad the latter choice was chosen here. 15 active cases in the entire state and no new cases for the last week.

+1
« Last Edit: November 06, 2020, 03:07:18 PM by mm1970 »

Jouer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4580 on: November 06, 2020, 11:46:28 AM »
So then what exactly are you advocating? You have described any behavior where risk is associated with transmission as equivalent to drunk driving. Describe a behavior besides staying home all the time that doesn't come with some risk attached to it with regards to this virus?

My guess is it's ok to do all the behaviors you currently engage in...but for someone that does something you deem too risky that's where the line needs to be drawn. Is it ok that my wife goes into the office? Or is that equivalent to drunk driving?

What I advocate is following the public health guidelines.  Wear a fucking mask in public.  Don't attend large gatherings.  Wash your hands.  Don't get together with an endless string of friends and relatives.  Not following those guidelines is putting other people at risk.

What "other people" are being put at risk in this situation? Every adult with the faculty to make their own choices is responsible for their exposure to this virus. If there's a large gathering (whether it's permitted by local guidelines or not) isn't everybody there signing off on the risk simply by being there? If you're seeing visitors, aren't you accepting some risk that they might be asymptomatic? If you choose to go to church rather than watching the service on their website, you're taking on the risk of increased exposure, and so is everybody else that made the choice to be there in person. If you're asymptomatic and clueless that you have COVID and go to that church service and another person gets infected, how much of that is your fault and how much of it was theirs since they knew the risks going in? How would you even know that it was you that infected them and not some other person? In that scenario, nobody knew it was happening, but everyone involved knew that it could happen and still made their choice. It's hard for me to draw judgment on anybody that's willing to accept increased risk so long as everybody involved is aware of the risks. Who are these people that aren't aware of the risks after 9 months of this?

Outside of the framework of this virus, we're all responsible for risks we expose ourselves to. Like I've already said, simply driving to work is a risk not only for yourself, but you're increasing the risk for everybody else on the road as well. That's fine because they're doing the same thing to you and making the same choices. We all make judgement calls based on our risk tolerance everyday that may increase the risk for others to have a negative outcome. And others make calls everyday that may increase your risk. The only way to truly eliminate these risks (to yourself and others) is to remove yourself from society by staying home. Even then, if you're staying home and having everything delivered, it's still going to increase risk for the people delivering it of being in an accident, or slipping and falling on some ice, or whatever.

If the virus couldn't be transferred to someone else not at the gathering, like their spouse, parent, child, coworker, grocery clerk, etc. you'd have a point. But it is. So you don't.

dandarc

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4581 on: November 06, 2020, 11:57:17 AM »
The anti-maskers on this thread and elsewhere need to grow the fuck up and admit you were and are wrong. This "actually this is not like the other thing where people are expected to meet a minimum standard of responsible behavior because . . ." stuff is pretty much equivalent to saying "all lives matter".

The fact that you're arguing the details of the analogy means you really don't get it, just as saying "all lives matter" or the accompanying rhetoric as a retort to "black lives matter" is a strong indicator you have a ton to learn about systemic racism in this country. Many are not ready to do the real work to learn more and adjust their behavior, so they're arguing semantics instead.

This is definitely a stage in the personal growth process, but it is very frustrating and exhausting to have to start explaining stuff that should be well understood over and over again. Medical professionals all over the country are weary in large part because they have to explain over and over again to people who are literally asking for their lives to be saved how a reality TV star is not a good source for medical advice. Racial and social justice activists have been weary of a similar fight against ignorance for a very long time.

Personal growth is extremely difficult for those lacking a sense of security in their lives. Do whatever you need to do to get to a place where you feel secure enough to examine your own beliefs, and adjust them where necessary.

mizzourah2006

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4582 on: November 06, 2020, 12:22:11 PM »
The anti-maskers on this thread and elsewhere need to grow the fuck up and admit you were and are wrong. This "actually this is not like the other thing where people are expected to meet a minimum standard of responsible behavior because . . ." stuff is pretty much equivalent to saying "all lives matter".

The fact that you're arguing the details of the analogy means you really don't get it, just as saying "all lives matter" or the accompanying rhetoric as a retort to "black lives matter" is a strong indicator you have a ton to learn about systemic racism in this country. Many are not ready to do the real work to learn more and adjust their behavior, so they're arguing semantics instead.

This is definitely a stage in the personal growth process, but it is very frustrating and exhausting to have to start explaining stuff that should be well understood over and over again. Medical professionals all over the country are weary in large part because they have to explain over and over again to people who are literally asking for their lives to be saved how a reality TV star is not a good source for medical advice. Racial and social justice activists have been weary of a similar fight against ignorance for a very long time.

Personal growth is extremely difficult for those lacking a sense of security in their lives. Do whatever you need to do to get to a place where you feel secure enough to examine your own beliefs, and adjust them where necessary.

Who are the anti-maskers in the thread that you're referring to? Who specifically within the past week in this thread has said that they don't wear a mask? Maybe I'm missing posts in this thread and a bunch of anti-maskers are posting stuff I can't see, but it really seems to me like a bunch of people in this thread are frustrated with people in their own lives and taking it out on people in this thread, which is pretty childish. It's already become clear frugalnacho is frustrated with the people in his life and taking it out on people in this thread who happened to take question with his stance that being in public while a virus is active is equivalent to drunk driving.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4583 on: November 06, 2020, 12:32:33 PM »
The anti-maskers on this thread and elsewhere need to grow the fuck up and admit you were and are wrong. This "actually this is not like the other thing where people are expected to meet a minimum standard of responsible behavior because . . ." stuff is pretty much equivalent to saying "all lives matter".

The fact that you're arguing the details of the analogy means you really don't get it, just as saying "all lives matter" or the accompanying rhetoric as a retort to "black lives matter" is a strong indicator you have a ton to learn about systemic racism in this country. Many are not ready to do the real work to learn more and adjust their behavior, so they're arguing semantics instead.

This is definitely a stage in the personal growth process, but it is very frustrating and exhausting to have to start explaining stuff that should be well understood over and over again. Medical professionals all over the country are weary in large part because they have to explain over and over again to people who are literally asking for their lives to be saved how a reality TV star is not a good source for medical advice. Racial and social justice activists have been weary of a similar fight against ignorance for a very long time.

Personal growth is extremely difficult for those lacking a sense of security in their lives. Do whatever you need to do to get to a place where you feel secure enough to examine your own beliefs, and adjust them where necessary.

Who are the anti-maskers in the thread that you're referring to? Who specifically within the past week in this thread has said that they don't wear a mask? Maybe I'm missing posts in this thread and a bunch of anti-maskers are posting stuff I can't see, but it really seems to me like a bunch of people in this thread are frustrated with people in their own lives and taking it out on people in this thread, which is pretty childish. It's already become clear frugalnacho is frustrated with the people in his life and taking it out on people in this thread who happened to take question with his stance that being in public while a virus is active is equivalent to drunk driving.

Anti-mask argument that there's no reason to wear a mask from five days ago:

This is an excellent article about masks: https://www.meehanmd.com/blog/2020-10-10-an-evidence-based-scientific-analysis-of-why-masks-are-ineffective-unnecessary-and-harmful/

If anyone smarter than I am wants to tell me why it's wrong, I'm open to the discourse. But it seems to me that the scientific evidence over the last 40 years is crystal clear that they do not work on a community wide basis.

Anecdotally, Ohio has had a mask mandate since June 23. We are now seeing our surge despite several polls showing 90% compliance in public. My personal observation is that I maybe see 1-2 people in any given store or setting without masks.

The same is going on in several other states and European countries. Austria, Germany, France, Spain have had mask mandates for many months with very high compliance, and they are all now seeing surges.

It's all quite a sad farce that this is looking at some fringe opinion instead of the reality. We can acknowledge it and try to make better policy or continue on this idiotic path.

dandarc

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4584 on: November 06, 2020, 12:40:09 PM »
You are one of them mizzourah2006 - you're arguing semantics rather than advocating for helping others. I know this, because after reviewing your recent posts days ago, you became the 11th individual on my ignore list. As I mentioned up thread, there is one thing and one thing only that gets you on that list - being deliberately obtuse and misleading others.

Simply put, it seems from your posting history that it is more important to you to win whatever you're arguing here than to do the right thing and advocate for policy that helps your fellow citizens stay alive and healthy.

Considering your screen name, be interesting to see your thoughts on that poll worker in Missouri who has passed away since election day and due to their irresponsible actions has likely taken a few maybe more than a few, innocent people with them.

dandarc

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4585 on: November 06, 2020, 01:07:36 PM »
And I, for one, agree with frugalnacho that just living your life as if there is not a pandemic going on is equivalent to drunk driving. Many people are ignoring the guidelines, so we actually probably do need some rules with some teeth.

You know why drunk driving is evoking such an extreme emotional reaction in this context? Because MADD has been doing very difficult work for decades to make sure everyone knows just how risky drunk driving is. To the point now that drunk driving is, for almost everyone in the United States, known to be a very bad thing that you shouldn't do. But it wasn't always that way. And people were outraged at being compared to violent criminals early in that fight.

mizzourah2006

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4586 on: November 06, 2020, 01:59:26 PM »
You are one of them mizzourah2006 - you're arguing semantics rather than advocating for helping others. I know this, because after reviewing your recent posts days ago, you became the 11th individual on my ignore list. As I mentioned up thread, there is one thing and one thing only that gets you on that list - being deliberately obtuse and misleading others.

Simply put, it seems from your posting history that it is more important to you to win whatever you're arguing here than to do the right thing and advocate for policy that helps your fellow citizens stay alive and healthy.

Considering your screen name, be interesting to see your thoughts on that poll worker in Missouri who has passed away since election day and due to their irresponsible actions has likely taken a few maybe more than a few, innocent people with them.

Show me where I've said anything about not wearing a mask or following local ordinances. I'll wait because I've been wearing a mask since April..but I appreciate that you clearly know what I do. I simply took issue with the fact that people are equating going out in public to drunk driving, that's literally it. I think the poll worker in missouri was completely irresponsible. They clearly knew they were sick. You and frugal are arguing that's the same thing as basically doing anything outside of getting groceries and working. I get that you have friends and family that are acting irresponsibly, but don't take that out on me for calling out insane comparisons.

Who had advocated for living life as if the virus isn't here? Have I? Please show me. I'll wait again. You keep putting words in my mouth and you wonder why people say you are arguing in bad faith.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2020, 02:01:19 PM by mizzourah2006 »

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4587 on: November 06, 2020, 02:16:27 PM »
You are one of them mizzourah2006 - you're arguing semantics rather than advocating for helping others. I know this, because after reviewing your recent posts days ago, you became the 11th individual on my ignore list. As I mentioned up thread, there is one thing and one thing only that gets you on that list - being deliberately obtuse and misleading others.

Simply put, it seems from your posting history that it is more important to you to win whatever you're arguing here than to do the right thing and advocate for policy that helps your fellow citizens stay alive and healthy.

Considering your screen name, be interesting to see your thoughts on that poll worker in Missouri who has passed away since election day and due to their irresponsible actions has likely taken a few maybe more than a few, innocent people with them.

Show me where I've said anything about not wearing a mask or following local ordinances. I'll wait because I've been wearing a mask since April..but I appreciate that you clearly know what I do. I simply took issue with the fact that people are equating going out in public to drunk driving, that's literally it. I think the poll worker in missouri was completely irresponsible. They clearly knew they were sick. You and frugal are arguing that's the same thing as basically doing anything outside of getting groceries and working. I get that you have friends and family that are acting irresponsibly, but don't take that out on me for calling out insane comparisons.

Who had advocated for living life as if the virus isn't here? Have I? Please show me. I'll wait again. You keep putting words in my mouth and you wonder why people say you are arguing in bad faith.

(s)He is another one of the insufferables apparently. You can claim to be doing everything right, and not only is s/he telling you you're akin to drunk driving, but now you're akin to yelling "all lives matter" too.
Did you notice s/he said s/he blocked you, but that it would be interesting to hear from you? It seems you're wasting your breath.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4588 on: November 06, 2020, 02:29:23 PM »
...You guys do realize there are 330M other people in the USA not involved in this thread?  And that some of the arguments presented in this thread are broad generalizations that are not directed at you specifically? 

That's great that you are following all of the public health guidelines and local ordinances related to covid.  I don't understand why you are so defensive when it's pointed out that other people are demonstrably not following those guidelines and putting people at risk. 

dandarc

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4589 on: November 06, 2020, 02:35:14 PM »
Fuzzy math - you conveniently ignored my next post fully explaining how drunk driving is an apt comparison and also why many people take offense to the term in an analogy. So you've chosen an apt screen name. And I'll note drunk driving is actually far less of a threat to life and limb now that we've widely implemented measures to get people to put themselves and others at less risk.

BTW "they" is a perfectly acceptable singular pronoun these days. Dictionary even says so. Save a character typing and your sentence is more readable. A true win-win. And you're being more inclusive of more people with the term "they". So a very simple way (simple - not to say easy) to be a little kinder to your fellow people.

Wear your masks in public, distance, avoid crowds and indoor gatherings with members outside your immediate household.

mizzourah2006

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4590 on: November 06, 2020, 02:49:06 PM »
...You guys do realize there are 330M other people in the USA not involved in this thread?  And that some of the arguments presented in this thread are broad generalizations that are not directed at you specifically? 

That's great that you are following all of the public health guidelines and local ordinances related to covid.  I don't understand why you are so defensive when it's pointed out that other people are demonstrably not following those guidelines and putting people at risk.

So then this thread has become a venting thread about people we know that are ignoring guidelines. I could do that all day, I even have friends on FB that literally bitch about other friends on their FB ignoring Covid and then have house warming parties with their friends the next week. But guess what....I'm not them and me scolding them on the internet or bitching about them here does literally nothing to change their behavior. So if you want to vent, vent, but don't bitch at other people for calling you out when you make an insane comparison and then slowly move the goalposts to make your point more valid.

P.S. I just got back from the grocery store (wearing a mask in and out in 5 minutes) because my 2 year old said he wanted pizza tonight and we didn't have it. Should I have done that? It wasn't absolutely necessary and clearly increased my risk of exposure or exposing others. Did I engage in the equivalent of drunk driving just then? It seems you and dandarc have all the answers, so I figured I'd see how much I should beat myself up over it tonight. Tell me how many lashings I deserve.

Fuzzy math - you conveniently ignored my next post fully explaining how drunk driving is an apt comparison and also why many people take offense to the term in an analogy. So you've chosen an apt screen name. And I'll note drunk driving is actually far less of a threat to life and limb now that we've widely implemented measures to get people to put themselves and others at less risk.

BTW "they" is a perfectly acceptable singular pronoun these days. Dictionary even says so. Save a character typing and your sentence is more readable. A true win-win. And you're being more inclusive of more people with the term "they". So a very simple way (simple - not to say easy) to be a little kinder to your fellow people.

Wear your masks in public, distance, avoid crowds and indoor gatherings with members outside your immediate household.

You all have moved the goalposts then. I don't think many would disagree that knowingly going out with Covid or ignoring all local ordinances on purpose is all that different than drunk driving. This literally started when frugalnacho equated going out to eat when local ordinances allow it to being the equivalent to drunk driving. He literally said...anything that increases yours or others risk of exposure is the equivalent to drunk driving....which is literally every behavior outside of never leaving your home.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2020, 02:51:41 PM by mizzourah2006 »

dandarc

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4591 on: November 06, 2020, 03:43:14 PM »
Funny thing about this forum - very easy to read back through. Particularly when it isn't the first time reading the recent posts.

You actually got all pissed off several days ago about RSM's "there should be no rules" position being compared to drunk driving.

The way this started - RSM says "there should be no rules, and further we should not even discuss individual choices with regard to risks they have externalized". Pretty standard fare from that user, and backed up by the usually dubious 'information' RSM provides.

Frugalnacho says "I'm convinced by your argument and think it should apply in other places - I like to drive drunk, and have determined all things considered that the risk to myself and others is reasonable". A very clear analogy immediately showing why we need rules and that individual discretion should not be the end all. The point being made was immediately obvious.

You got pissed off right then. So the goalposts have not moved at all, you just continue to miss the point. At this point it is obvious you're being deliberately obtuse.

You're making my point for me - you don't give a shit about other people really. Not enough of a shit to be more worried about the consequences of misinformation than you are about winning this argument. Why do are you so offended by the drunk driving analogy? Makes no sense - the best way to state your position is "well I might quibble with the details, but yes the drunk driving analogy works pretty well. This is why we need guidelines and laws for Covid-19 . . ." Which draws back to what I said today - if you're taking offense at the specifics of the analogy rather than the misinformation and illogic said analogy exposes, then you probably really don't grasp how bad Covid-19 is.

So keep wearing your mask, and encourage others to do the same. Do medical professionals a favor by heeding the guidelines and demanding others to do the same, and you'll help shorten the lines of ambulances bringing in people so sick that 30% of them will likely die. And part of your responsibility is helping to educate others why they should also follow the guidelines. Arguing how dining out at a restaurant really isn't that bad is doing the opposite of what you, and everyone else should be doing right now.

mizzourah2006

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4592 on: November 06, 2020, 04:16:41 PM »
You're absolutely right that is the great thing about forums. First of all why are you saying I'm "pissed" what gives you that impression?

It wasn't frugalnacho, it was guitarstv and he responded to people talking about what they were seeing people doing around their area and that many met up with others for Halloween and dadjokes responded saying it's not possible to have a conversation about Covid and reach differing conclusions on what is acceptable (small gatherings are within legal ordinances in many parts of the country). Then guitarstv said well I've weighed the risks and decided drunk driving is fine. Let's have a discussion about that. So right there you are wrong. I responded with "troll much?" to him responding to a discussion about doing perfectly legal things that abide by local ordinances being equivalent to drunk driving. Then the goalposts moved to the argument being that drunk driving is equivalent to knowingly going out in public while infected and/or just completely ignoring all local ordinances. Which was not even remotely close to what I responded to with troll much.

Again you're making stuff up and arguing in bad faith. That's cool. I'll concede you win. I just sure hope you've done nothing but work, grocery shop, and meet with family members in your household or else you too are part of the problem. I'm done arguing with you on this thread. We're clearly talking past each other. I wish you well.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2020, 04:20:26 PM by mizzourah2006 »

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4593 on: November 06, 2020, 04:31:15 PM »
Guys, one of the forum rules is not to be nasty to one another.

Here in Australia, thereís been a big push for people to be respectful of one another through covid19. I was talking to a service desk person the other day and she hoped that was one of the changes the pandemic had brought about that would endure. I can still advise the person behind me in a queue that theyíre too close (and I do, even though where I live has gone a long time without any actual cases), but doing it respectfully makes life just a bit smoother.

The Economist had a graph of who people get infected with covid19 get it from (I think in Europe). Every age group usually gets it from someone else in the same age group EXCEPT 25-40 year olds give it to all age groups. I guess that age group interacts with all other age groups far more.

dandarc

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4594 on: November 06, 2020, 04:59:21 PM »
I agree with your deborah. Deliberately misleading people (rsm) is a truly nasty thing to do. Distracting from the debunking of that misinformation is pretty nasty too.
 
The spread statistics you cite make some sense on the face of it - people in that age bracket often have kids and parents still and tend to interact with both.

dandarc

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4595 on: November 06, 2020, 05:04:12 PM »
Also Australia is a pretty good example that widespread lockdowns (we'd call suggesting people maintain distance a lockdown in the united states) are a good way to handle things. Y'all have pretty well beat it down to essentially nothing twice now.

In the USA we tend to demand perfection, and anything short of that is just details. 95% and 40% are often considered equivalent essentially. You see that in this thread over and over.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4596 on: November 07, 2020, 06:12:33 PM »
The attitude towards masks from the elected officials here has been that masks provide a significant benefit for relatively low cost, and will be kept for as long as needed.

If daily case numbers are 100,000 per day, then to borrow a phrase from the blog, that's a 'hair on fire' situation.

It's understandable that getting the entire community to support any restrictions and the legality of any restrictions are a challenge for the US.

Today was the ninth day of no new cases in this state, and active cases are down to 4 (and about 90 nationwide). The 25km travel limit and restrictions on travel between metro and regional Victoria will be lifted from midnight tonight. I'm looking forward to visiting my parents tomorrow for the first time since June.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2020, 06:31:35 PM by alsoknownasDean »

middo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4597 on: November 07, 2020, 06:31:14 PM »
@alsoknownasDean , enjoy the time with your parents.

I saw my Dad yesterday for the first time since February.  My step-mother has anxiety issues anyway, and covid made them into hermits, apart from the carers coming in and out most days.  Logic was also not one of her strong points.

We brought them fish and chips and shared them outside.  It was so good to see them.  Dad has deteriorated as lockdowns are not good for Alzheimer's.  But he was still cognizant of most stuff we talked about.  He was excited about Biden and the US election.

And Victoria has less active cases than WA now.

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4598 on: November 07, 2020, 09:42:31 PM »
Fuzzy math - you conveniently ignored my next post fully explaining how drunk driving is an apt comparison and also why many people take offense to the term in an analogy. So you've chosen an apt screen name. And I'll note drunk driving is actually far less of a threat to life and limb now that we've widely implemented measures to get people to put themselves and others at less risk.

BTW "they" is a perfectly acceptable singular pronoun these days. Dictionary even says so. Save a character typing and your sentence is more readable. A true win-win. And you're being more inclusive of more people with the term "they". So a very simple way (simple - not to say easy) to be a little kinder to your fellow people.

Wear your masks in public, distance, avoid crowds and indoor gatherings with members outside your immediate household.

Do not lecture me about pronouns. It is not non-inclusive if I didn't use "they" automatically to refer to a poster. I actually understand pronouns quite well and it's quite ridiculous for you to accuse me of not being inclusive if I said s/he. If you want me to call you they, you can state that but you're going to be blocked too so I won't see it :)

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4599 on: November 07, 2020, 09:45:52 PM »
@alsoknownasDean and @middo it's fantastic that you're seeing your parents again. Hopefully I'll see mine soon too! And all the states will be open to each other again.