Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 362020 times)

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4500 on: November 03, 2020, 09:51:40 PM »
Taking new research and information into account that we didn't have 3 years ago when that document was written and this virus didn't exist = throwing the science out the door? Interesting thought.

Accepting new evidence regardless of how it impacts previous conclusions is at the core of scientific advancement.

With every post you make you're making it more clear that you've made your conclusions and you're seeking out information to support those conclusions rather than trying to actually have a productive conversation.

You couldnít possibly be doing the same, of course. Youíre just so noble and truth seeking.

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4501 on: November 03, 2020, 09:52:54 PM »

Drunk = a verifiable state. The driver in that case is guilty. There's intent that comes with that decision.

Drunk is a verifiable state.  But if a 200 lb guy three or four pints over a couple hours, is he drunk?  Hmm.  Tough to say.  Certainly a guy at a bar has no idea.  Is there intent to kill someone else?  Probably not.  He has to guess based on what he thinks drunk feels like since breathalyzers are not standard bar equipment.  And he might guess wrong.

Having covid is a verifiable state.  Certainly the average person going about their day has no idea.  Is there intent to kill someone else if you fail to socially distance/wear a mask/go to parties/go to restaurants?  Probably not.  He has to guess if he has covid since often there are no symptoms and testing is not available any time someone needs it.  And he might guess wrong.

We typically hold drunk drivers responsible for their reckless actions these days.  This only happened after years of fighting people who didn't see anything wrong with what they were doing.  We don't currently hold people with covid responsible for their actions.  Currently there is lots of push back from people who don't see anything wrong with what they are doing.

A driver can be charged with impaired driving even if under 0.08% if it affects their ability to drive safely. There are personal breathalyzers and testing strips, neither of which require a Dr to order or extended wait times for results. Its easy not to drink at all or to never drive even if you've just had one drink. That's how you drive safely.  Should I sit online and complain all day long about people who had one sip of alcohol 4 hours ago and how it doesn't meet my personal comfort level for driving, even if its well within legal limits?

The opposite is not true of COVID. By merely existing, but not even actively doing anything, a person can infected. Their possible or confirmed infectiousness does not automatically make them a criminal. If anyone could be infected and we cannot risk anyone being in public (even performing public duties that are necessary), then everyone would be locked in their homes. But then again, without police or healthcare workers (who would also need to be locked in their homes for it to work) there would be a breakdown of society. So when we accept that we must keep certain functions going, we create restrictions to balance freedoms vs basic public safety, knowing that there is going to be a balance that some people aren't thrilled about. Along the way we messed up a huge segment of society who needed to work, but was deemed non-essential and as the months dragged back on we had to re-open. Nowhere in the US is currently in lock down. The fact remains that you are still bent out of shape about when others are doing COMPLETELY LEGAL things that don't fall in line with your thoughts on what should be allowed. Have you ever seen me argue to disobey state or local laws regarding COVID? I dare you to find it. My issue is that in the zeal to appear to be doing something, we get nitwits who believe that they're making a difference by becoming the internet morality police, and the same people call their local govt begging for more rules so they can feel safe. (Hint: safety is an illusion)

That in turn gets things like my local health dept publishing a list of "safe Halloween activities" (which included watching a scary movie with only the family I live with -- thanks Health Dept for allowing me to be able to continue to watch movies in my own home!), or this nonsense in California for Thanksgiving:

"The guidelines state that no more than three households can gather together at a time. Gatherings must be held outside and should last less than two hours. Attendees may go inside to use restrooms as long as the restrooms are frequently sanitized. Also, singing, chanting, and shouting are strongly discouraged."

What the hell is this? How frequently should restrooms be sanitized? Where should I send my signed sanitization logs to?
Is humming ok? What number should I call if I want to rat out my neighbors who I hear chanting in their yard?

If you can't see the slow erosion of freedoms, or the slow indoctrination of mob rule, you're blind to what's going on. You're being programmed to turn on other theoretical people who you can't even prove have done something illegal.

Iím obviously too frustrated to articulate this as well as you have, so thank you for posting.

Davnasty

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4502 on: November 03, 2020, 10:33:38 PM »
Taking new research and information into account that we didn't have 3 years ago when that document was written and this virus didn't exist = throwing the science out the door? Interesting thought.

Accepting new evidence regardless of how it impacts previous conclusions is at the core of scientific advancement.

With every post you make you're making it more clear that you've made your conclusions and you're seeking out information to support those conclusions rather than trying to actually have a productive conversation.

You couldnít possibly be doing the same, of course. Youíre just so noble and truth seeking.

Not likely. I haven't really posted my positions much in this thread lately. I've been following along but there are so many pros and cons on every side of each position* that I find it hard to state an opinion on one variable without explaining every aspect of my big picture view of the situation that I've decided it's easier to just not discuss my personal positions.

Instead I've mostly spoken up when I see a flawed argument, which is what the first portion of my post was about. Admittedly that last bid was bordering on personal attack and I probably should have left it out, but I'm curious to understand how you equate changing opinions based on new information to throwing science out the door. Again, being willing to amend our ideas based on new data a key component of science.

Also I'd like to point out that even if you were right and we should stick to the 2006/2017 guidelines without question despite new information, we still wouldn't be at the low level severity scenario that you've claimed. You misread the documents. I pointed that out in another post. If you've got the time I'd appreciate a response to that one as well.

*Except mask wearing. That's almost entirely a pro. Low cost high reward.

Davnasty

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4503 on: November 03, 2020, 10:47:24 PM »
Taking new research and information into account that we didn't have 3 years ago when that document was written and this virus didn't exist = throwing the science out the door? Interesting thought.

Accepting new evidence regardless of how it impacts previous conclusions is at the core of scientific advancement.

With every post you make you're making it more clear that you've made your conclusions and you're seeking out information to support those conclusions rather than trying to actually have a productive conversation.

You couldnít possibly be doing the same, of course. Youíre just so noble and truth seeking.

Oh, and I guess the simpler response would have been that I haven't gone seeking out information in the context of this discussion.

I've completely limited my argument to statements from the CDC which is the source you initially cited.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4504 on: November 04, 2020, 06:41:24 AM »
I'm still amazed at the difference in attitudes by the majority of this Forum compared to the majority of people I know in real life. Just for example seemingly 80% of the people I know did some type of Halloween celebrations/trick or treating/dinners/parties etc. this weekend.

Could also be the folks who are getting on with living their lives don't speak up on threads like this or the "Covid Holiday Guilt" threads and such because they don't feel like being berated and called Trumpers and what not.

Yep.

It's not like people in this forum (or the internet in general) are willing to have an respectful discussion with people that come to different conclusions.

Yeah, this thread is pretty much Black and white when I was hoping to discuss the grey area most of the real world live in.

In here it seems you're either locked down 100% leaving the house only for mandatory work and sustenance or your an anti masker/murderer.

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Just for the record I haven't been in a public building without a mask since March 10th; and I never said I was anti mask.

What I have done is been in a few friends/family homes without mask and they were also without mask. So we accepted that risk together; not me forcing the risk on other people has been implied in this thread.

Yep, everyone is going about their business as usual with varying levels of precautions.  I wonder if that's directly related to the USA getting 89k new cases yesterday and us having an official death toll of 237k?

Halloween was pretty dead in our neighborhood.  Most people just set up bowls instead of handing it out directly, although plenty of people were still passing out candy with no masks on.  We set up a table at the sidewalk with bags of candy.

Quite dead here also, in the middle of deep-red Trump country.  Of course, this could be related to the fact that our city of ~100,00 is recording 300-600 new cases per day for weeks, and deaths nearly every single day, and our hospitals are under strain and have had to have support staff sent in from other cities.

That is a lot! We've been in the 600 case a day range in MD for a while with a population of 7 million. It has recently started getting back to the 800 range it hit in like mId July though.

That's the reason I read (and stupidly participate) in some of these threads; to try to gauge behaviour of what is more safe/less safe etc.  Right now we aren't changing much from what we've done the last few months. But entertaining outdoors is going to get harder as the Weather cools and I'm trying to set some parameters like if our infection rates double then maybe only see one family per week or if it goes up 10 times go back to April of seeing no one or whatever (just examples, haven't come to any real conclusions parameters yet)

------------

And have as others have mentioned I haven't broken any laws, I've only done what has been allowed in Maryland, no pushing the envelope. I followed the Stay at home order seriously for the whole 6-8 weeks we had it.

Anyway, I don't know that I have much else to contribute really to this thread.

I hope you all stay healthy and sane this winter and that the numbers don't get too crazy, and that by next Summer we can all see friends/family more easily via vaccine,treatments, tracing, dumb luck, whatever!

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4505 on: November 04, 2020, 08:02:50 AM »

Today I learned that drunk drivers have intent to kill people.  The more you know. 

You know there is asymptomatic spread, and you know that people can die from this disease.  You saying "I feel fine, I'm unlikely to infect someone with coronavirus" doesn't absolve you.  You don't get to say "Meh, I think it's low risk that I'm infected and spreading this deadly disease".   We know it's not true.  We know there is asymptomatic spread.  If no one wears a mask in public infection rates increase, AND PEOPLE DIE.  You could literally make a mountain out of all the dead bodies. 

I would argue that not taking basic precautions like wearing a mask inside a grocery store has the exact same intent as deciding to drive drunk. It carries a risk, and it's disproportionately going to affect other people, completely against their will.  Saying "it's MY choice (to endanger your life)!" in either scenario makes you a selfish asshole.

We know that when we're drunk and we choose to drive drunk, there's an intent to break the law. The law exists to keep drunk people from killing others. The knowledge of that and the intent to drive when drunk makes it a slam dunk legally.

An asymptomatic person out shopping with a mask on? An asymptomatic person eating at a restaurant with a mask off? No chance in hell they'd be convicted of a crime. There have been super spreader events, none of the super spreaders has been charged or convicted of anything (because mal intent was not provable). The only time in my line of arguments that I mentioned a person without a mask in a store was referencing someone who did get arrested, but you're desperate to take this about no one wearing masks anywhere to make a corollary to the line of thinking you've hyper focused on.

Stop and re-read what you wrote:

"make a mountain of all the dead bodies"
"if no one wears a mask"
' "its my choice to endanger your life" '
"makes you a selfish asshole"

You're absolutely arguing in bad faith, multiple people have called you out on it and you keep trying to express the same sentiment in a more belligerent fashion. Maybe you should go outside, get some sun and exercise and chill the F out.

To be clear I am not (nor do I believe anyone else is) equating the legality of drunk driving with recklessly endangering other people with coronavirus infection.  I'm well aware that one is a legal slam dunk, and the other is not prosecutable.   What I'm equating is the underlying action.  Being drunk is a verifiable state, but being drunk doesn't mean you're going to kill someone.  Most people driving home from the bar with 0.08 BAC overwhelmingly arrive home safe.  You could likely do it regularly for years and years and never even get pulled over, let alone crash into and kill someone.  But we do know that compared to sober driving it still has an unacceptably high level of risk, which is why it is illegal nationwide.  The legality is completely beside my point; in fact if drunk driving legislation was repealed in its entirety today, my argument would not change. It's still immoral to drive drunk, not because it's illegal, but because you are foisting a disproportionate amount of risk onto other people.

We know the coronavirus is running rampant through the USA; we are likely to hit 10M cases and 240k deaths before next week.  We know it is airborne, we know we have asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic spread, we know we have community spread in every state, and we know that masks slow the transmission rate.  You can no longer make the claim that you aren't infected and spreading, because you simply don't know.  You think you have an exceedingly low probability of transmitting it, but the numbers speak for themselves.  Attending large gatherings, and not wearing a mask in public places is simply irresponsible. 

It would be like getting pulled over and blowing 0.08 and claiming "but I'm 200 pounds! and I only had 2 beers! I know millions of people all over the country are accidentally going over the legal limit and then unsuspectingly driving drunk, but I had no idea that I could be drunk and should have taken precautions, despite every public health official preaching that exact message to me for several months!".  IMO not a very defensible position.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4506 on: November 04, 2020, 08:08:49 AM »
This reminds me of the doctors who were insulted to be told that they should wash their hands after autopsies brfore attending their women patients in labour.  Their hands looked clean, and childbirth fever was caused by miasma anyway.  Just like malaria is caused by bad air.

A huge contributor to public health these days is caused by public health measures.  You get clean water delivered and sewage processed by your municipality, or you get your well water checked by your local health region and your septic system looked after by pumping out the septic tank for proper disposal and you keep tree roots out of your leach field.   You don't have your outhouse or your farm manure pile close to your dug well.

And most masks are not to protect you from others, they are to protect others from you.  I wear my mask to protect you, in case I am infectious, you wear your mask to protect me, in case you are infectious.  We both keep our distances to protect each other.  And remember the degrees of connection thing?  You don't know who you are being exposed to by a few degrees of connection, and you don't know who you might be exposing by a few degrees of connection.  Or as the public health doctors who track STIs point out, when you have sex with someone, disease-wise you are exposed to every partner your partner has had, all the way down the line.

The point I am trying to make here is that public health measures are to protect us from us, since we are all germ factories to some extent or another.  Please don't be the Covid equivalent of typhoid Mary, who was asymptomatic and shedding germs like mad.

On a related note it's fucking bullshit that big government is stopping me from pouring cyanide down my drain.  Just another of our rights completely eroded away.

Watchmaker

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4507 on: November 04, 2020, 08:49:17 AM »
That in turn gets things like my local health dept publishing a list of "safe Halloween activities" (which included watching a scary movie with only the family I live with -- thanks Health Dept for allowing me to be able to continue to watch movies in my own home!), or this nonsense in California for Thanksgiving:

"The guidelines state that no more than three households can gather together at a time. Gatherings must be held outside and should last less than two hours. Attendees may go inside to use restrooms as long as the restrooms are frequently sanitized. Also, singing, chanting, and shouting are strongly discouraged."

What the hell is this? How frequently should restrooms be sanitized? Where should I send my signed sanitization logs to?
Is humming ok? What number should I call if I want to rat out my neighbors who I hear chanting in their yard?

If you can't see the slow erosion of freedoms, or the slow indoctrination of mob rule, you're blind to what's going on. You're being programmed to turn on other theoretical people who you can't even prove have done something illegal.

Genuine question-- not trying to argue:

What about those guidelines is upsetting you? What you describe seems perfectly reasonable to me, so I'm obviously missing something.

The unreasonable parts (sanitation logs, rat-out-you-neighbor hotlines) seem to be your invention. 

LaineyAZ

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4508 on: November 04, 2020, 02:09:41 PM »
This reminds me of the doctors who were insulted to be told that they should wash their hands after autopsies brfore attending their women patients in labour.  Their hands looked clean, and childbirth fever was caused by miasma anyway.  Just like malaria is caused by bad air.

A huge contributor to public health these days is caused by public health measures.  You get clean water delivered and sewage processed by your municipality, or you get your well water checked by your local health region and your septic system looked after by pumping out the septic tank for proper disposal and you keep tree roots out of your leach field.   You don't have your outhouse or your farm manure pile close to your dug well.

And most masks are not to protect you from others, they are to protect others from you.  I wear my mask to protect you, in case I am infectious, you wear your mask to protect me, in case you are infectious.  We both keep our distances to protect each other.  And remember the degrees of connection thing?  You don't know who you are being exposed to by a few degrees of connection, and you don't know who you might be exposing by a few degrees of connection.  Or as the public health doctors who track STIs point out, when you have sex with someone, disease-wise you are exposed to every partner your partner has had, all the way down the line.

The point I am trying to make here is that public health measures are to protect us from us, since we are all germ factories to some extent or another.  Please don't be the Covid equivalent of typhoid Mary, who was asymptomatic and shedding germs like mad.

On a related note it's fucking bullshit that big government is stopping me from pouring cyanide down my drain.  Just another of our rights completely eroded away.

haha!  and don't get me started on the FAA pet regulations - I should be able to bring my emotional support python on-board with me for any flight at any time.
It's my world and you're all only living in it. 

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4509 on: November 04, 2020, 05:45:03 PM »
That in turn gets things like my local health dept publishing a list of "safe Halloween activities" (which included watching a scary movie with only the family I live with -- thanks Health Dept for allowing me to be able to continue to watch movies in my own home!), or this nonsense in California for Thanksgiving:

"The guidelines state that no more than three households can gather together at a time. Gatherings must be held outside and should last less than two hours. Attendees may go inside to use restrooms as long as the restrooms are frequently sanitized. Also, singing, chanting, and shouting are strongly discouraged."

What the hell is this? How frequently should restrooms be sanitized? Where should I send my signed sanitization logs to?
Is humming ok? What number should I call if I want to rat out my neighbors who I hear chanting in their yard?

If you can't see the slow erosion of freedoms, or the slow indoctrination of mob rule, you're blind to what's going on. You're being programmed to turn on other theoretical people who you can't even prove have done something illegal.


Genuine question-- not trying to argue:

What about those guidelines is upsetting you? What you describe seems perfectly reasonable to me, so I'm obviously missing something.

The unreasonable parts (sanitation logs, rat-out-you-neighbor hotlines) seem to be your invention.

The over reach of health departments putting out advice for things that don't even involve leaving your home or seeing people. Does it not strike you as big brotherish to have a health dept "allowing" you to watch a movie in your home? Would you have ever imagined that the health dept would need to tell you what is permissible in your home on a daily basis? Maybe it doesn't bother you but I see it as over reach and a slippery slope. If they're saying it's OK to drive in your car (with your own family) to look at Halloween decorations, that means that they've weighed the current risks, but someday it might not be OK. In CA, they actually had to make sure to add chanting to singing and shouting, in case you weren't aware that ritualistic noises might ESPECIALLY spread the virus. How is chanting much more infectious than speech reading? What if I were to pull out a copy of the play I wrote, or a long news article? That seems eerily similar to chanting in terms of length / passion / cadence. Should I call them to mention that nothing over 400 words should be permitted or someone might accidentally exceed (what a bunch of office people, may without public health degrees have determined to be) safe levels? Gosh, next all literary works are banned in the back yard. Read up on BLOOP BLOOP and other Aussie's commentary on having a 5 km lockdown going on for months. Is that justifiable here? What are you willing to undergo and what crosses a personal line for you? Laws (and lesser measures) once passed are a lot harder to repeal. It reminds me of old sodomy laws, abortion laws etc. Over reach pure and simple. Next thing you know you're doubting your own judgment because you've been told you're virtuous if you wait for someone to tell you what to do.

Why would CA put out restrictions about the number of people and length of time for Thanksgiving that than to exert control? Is Thanksgiving known to be a day where people would be spreading it much beyond normal capacity of their day to day rules? If 10 people are allowed on Wednesday then why is 10 too much on Thursday? If these aren't meant to be followed then just stick to the normal day to day limit. If they're meant to be followed, that means the police are free to show up and ticket or arrest you for failing to comply. What if you're a minority or you've had a drink and you're not in the mood for anyone's bullshit and the cops pull their guns on you?
« Last Edit: November 04, 2020, 05:52:35 PM by fuzzy math »

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4510 on: November 04, 2020, 06:48:21 PM »
Fuzzy math, Canadian cases are way up after our Thanksgiving (second Monday in October).  At least we have 2 months to get numbers down before the various winter solstice holidays.  Americans will just be getting Covid numbers down after a Thanksgiving surge when Christmas & & arrive, so double whammy.  People push the limits for family holidays.  It must drive the public health people crazy.

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4511 on: November 04, 2020, 08:57:49 PM »
Fuzzy math, Canadian cases are way up after our Thanksgiving (second Monday in October).  At least we have 2 months to get numbers down before the various winter solstice holidays.  Americans will just be getting Covid numbers down after a Thanksgiving surge when Christmas & & arrive, so double whammy.  People push the limits for family holidays.  It must drive the public health people crazy.
We didnít have gatherings mid Oct quite like Canada did, and we have the same surge going on here. Itís seasonal /cyclical. If Canada (or the US) was allowing random gatherings on any old day of up to 10, and wanted smaller gatherings specifically on holidays, then the thought of millions of small gatherings arenít ok, but theyíre betting that all people donít gather every day in groups of 10. So which is it? Is it that Iím suddenly not allowed to have 10 on Thanksgiving because others want to have 10 also and weíve exceeded a theoretical level? Would 6 million groups of 6 produce less illness than 3 million groups of 10? None of this is being approached or discussed in a way that assures the public that anyone making decisions has done it thoughtfully.


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kenmoremmm

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4512 on: November 05, 2020, 12:25:04 AM »
any guess on when we'll be at 200k/day cases in the US? get a nice halloween spike + election spike?

by the time biden is inaugurated, maybe we will have herd immunity and the virus will magically go away (as the q anon crowd thinks it will if biden wins). irony?

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4513 on: November 05, 2020, 04:06:01 AM »

You said that you would be asking a lower paid employee to accept that risk for you by not doing the grocery shopping yourself.

I was simply in a nice civil manner pointing out that by doing curbside or delivery that the employee at the grocery store ( bar, restaurant or whatever you want) might be safer due to less contact.

Normally I would renew my license plates in person and do a lot of things in person, this year I did them online not because I was afraid to go in but to try and be a decent person and reduce the chance of transmission not only for the general population but the front line healthcare workers that are critical like yourself.


Just want to second this. I've seen the accusation that privileged people who can work from home and pay more for contact-less services are oblivious to what service workers are going through, but the purpose of reducing contact is just as much (if not more so) for the benefit of service workers as it is for the privileged people who have the option to reduce contact.

It's certainly correct that not having an interaction is safer than having one, but the odds of getting the virus from quick, low contact interactions is pretty low. CDC says "high risk" of transmission requires somebody to be within 6ft for about 15 minutes. There aren't many interactions between the general public and service workers that fall into that category, especially now with everybody living on opposite sides of a plexiglass wall. The service workers are probably more likely to contract the virus from each other in the break room or when they share a car for a smoke break than they are with a short transactional situation. Since we seem to be trusting the CDC's assessment of the current virus, then you're not likely to get sick going to the store, and you're not likely to make anyone else sick either so long as you keep your distance and mask up.

I'm "essential" and have never stopped working on site. There are a few hundred employees per day in my facility from all over my region. My employer follows CDC protocols, so masks at pretty much all times, social distancing where possible, and if somebody has at least 2 COVID symptoms, they're sent home and a test is performed. But they take no other precautions while waiting for test results to come in (which can take 48hrs from time of test), and unless they test positive and you can prove that you were within 6 ft of them for 15 minutes, it's business as usual. If you meet the "High Risk" to exposure category by being within close proximity to a positive case, but you show no symptoms, they're probably not sending you home either. Ask me how I know. We get an email once or twice per week about a new person that was in my facility testing positive for COVID, but there have been zero known cases of spread between employees with these measures in place.

My overall point being that the CDC says it takes both time and close proximity to a positive person to transmit this virus in normal settings. Those situations aren't likely to occur with most service jobs, so you can feel good about reducing their risk by staying home and having things delivered or whatever but the reduction in risk for you or the service worker isn't really that great because there wasn't much risk for either party to begin with. Most of my friends that are taking those actions are doing it for themselves first, with any benefit to others as a fortunate side effect rather than a primary focus. That's privilege, not sacrificing for the greater good. It can't hurt to stay home of course, but it's pretty much always safer for everybody if we all just stay home right? Driving to some event carries risk, not just for you but also for those on the road with you. There's risk of transmitting some bug to others while at that event or a risk of catching it yourself. There's risk in every part of living, and at some point we have to figure out how to go out and live with this virus or become a bunch of wealthy agoraphobes afraid to leave our homes for the fact that some amount of risk exists outside of those walls.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2020, 04:09:33 AM by Paper Chaser »

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4514 on: November 05, 2020, 05:22:53 AM »
any guess on when we'll be at 200k/day cases in the US? get a nice halloween spike + election spike?

by the time biden is inaugurated, maybe we will have herd immunity and the virus will magically go away (as the q anon crowd thinks it will if biden wins). irony?

No idea. Mask compliance is very good where I live, and everyone who voted in the precinct where I worked wore a mask. The line moved quickly, and most people also used the available hand sanitizer. In places where people refuse to mask up, there will probably be issues related to the election.

Also, I was told by Trump followers that COVID-19 would magically disappear on Nov. 4 and we'd never hear about it again. Oops. AP News: US sets record for cases amid election battle over virus
« Last Edit: November 05, 2020, 05:25:03 AM by OtherJen »

MayDay

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4515 on: November 05, 2020, 06:49:08 AM »
Our hospitals are full again here (MN), refusing transports from our stupid neighbor states (we are surrounded by Covid idiots).

So yay!

And Thanksgiving hasn't even hit yet.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4516 on: November 05, 2020, 07:09:31 AM »
Our hospitals are full again here (MN), refusing transports from our stupid neighbor states (we are surrounded by Covid idiots).

So yay!

And Thanksgiving hasn't even hit yet.

...but we had the election.  This whole thing was a hoax just to make Trump look bad. 

mizzourah2006

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4517 on: November 05, 2020, 07:32:28 AM »
Our hospitals are full again here (MN), refusing transports from our stupid neighbor states (we are surrounded by Covid idiots).

So yay!

And Thanksgiving hasn't even hit yet.

...but we had the election.  This whole thing was a hoax just to make Trump look bad.

How many people do you know that truly think that? Serious question. Or do you just think that it's funny to say because you heard somewhere on the internet that some Trump supporters had said something along those lines?

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4518 on: November 05, 2020, 07:38:16 AM »
Our hospitals are full again here (MN), refusing transports from our stupid neighbor states (we are surrounded by Covid idiots).

So yay!

And Thanksgiving hasn't even hit yet.

...but we had the election.  This whole thing was a hoax just to make Trump look bad.

How many people do you know that truly think that? Serious question. Or do you just think that it's funny to say because you heard somewhere on the internet that some Trump supporters had said something along those lines?

"Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus.  They have no clue, they can't even count their votes in Iowa.  This is their new hoax." - Donald Trump

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4519 on: November 05, 2020, 07:40:24 AM »
Our hospitals are full again here (MN), refusing transports from our stupid neighbor states (we are surrounded by Covid idiots).

So yay!

And Thanksgiving hasn't even hit yet.

...but we had the election.  This whole thing was a hoax just to make Trump look bad.

How many people do you know that truly think that? Serious question. Or do you just think that it's funny to say because you heard somewhere on the internet that some Trump supporters had said something along those lines?

I personally know dozens.  Family members and coworkers.  Not friends, because I don't voluntarily associate with people that stupid.   

Also this isn't some fringe conspiracy theory talking point, it was a literal claim by the actual president on multiple occasions.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4520 on: November 05, 2020, 07:50:48 AM »
Also this isn't some fringe conspiracy theory talking point, it was a literal claim by the actual president on multiple occasions.

The two are not mutually exclusive.

:P

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4521 on: November 05, 2020, 08:00:42 AM »
Our hospitals are full again here (MN), refusing transports from our stupid neighbor states (we are surrounded by Covid idiots).

So yay!

And Thanksgiving hasn't even hit yet.

...but we had the election.  This whole thing was a hoax just to make Trump look bad.

How many people do you know that truly think that? Serious question. Or do you just think that it's funny to say because you heard somewhere on the internet that some Trump supporters had said something along those lines?

I personally know dozens.  Family members and coworkers.  Not friends, because I don't voluntarily associate with people that stupid.   

Same; I've had dozens of people in real life tell me it'd be over Nov 4th.

Ugggh

ixtap

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4522 on: November 05, 2020, 08:13:43 AM »
Our hospitals are full again here (MN), refusing transports from our stupid neighbor states (we are surrounded by Covid idiots).

So yay!

And Thanksgiving hasn't even hit yet.

...but we had the election.  This whole thing was a hoax just to make Trump look bad.

How many people do you know that truly think that? Serious question. Or do you just think that it's funny to say because you heard somewhere on the internet that some Trump supporters had said something along those lines?

I personally know dozens.  Family members and coworkers.  Not friends, because I don't voluntarily associate with people that stupid.   

Same; I've had dozens of people in real life tell me it'd be over Nov 4th.

Ugggh

Yep, anti mask it's all a hoax Trump supporters are a real thing.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4523 on: November 05, 2020, 08:16:38 AM »
Also this isn't some fringe conspiracy theory talking point, it was a literal claim by the actual president on multiple occasions.

The two are not mutually exclusive.

:P

Right.  I meant it isn't solely some fringe conspiracy talking point. 

skp

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4524 on: November 05, 2020, 08:22:01 AM »
I'm guilty of saying the virus will be over at the end of the election. I don't think the virus is a hoax and I am not an antimasker.   What I meant by that was not that the virus would go away, but the fear mongering would.  It would no longer be politically expedient to make a major deal out of it.  In fact it would be detrimental.  Now Biden is in charge of "making it all go away" and we will see how that goes.

mizzourah2006

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4525 on: November 05, 2020, 08:23:33 AM »
Our hospitals are full again here (MN), refusing transports from our stupid neighbor states (we are surrounded by Covid idiots).

So yay!

And Thanksgiving hasn't even hit yet.

...but we had the election.  This whole thing was a hoax just to make Trump look bad.

How many people do you know that truly think that? Serious question. Or do you just think that it's funny to say because you heard somewhere on the internet that some Trump supporters had said something along those lines?

I personally know dozens.  Family members and coworkers.  Not friends, because I don't voluntarily associate with people that stupid.   

Also this isn't some fringe conspiracy theory talking point, it was a literal claim by the actual president on multiple occasions.

I've never heard anyone outside of forums like this make that claim. I hate Trump so I can't pretend to know what he does or does not mean, but I think it's fair to say that the Coronavirus has been politicized. On both sides. I think just about everything in this damn country is politicized nowadays. It's actually quite sad. Hopefully Biden can fix some of that.

ixtap

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4526 on: November 05, 2020, 08:26:53 AM »
I'm guilty of saying the virus will be over at the end of the election. I don't think the virus is a hoax and I am not an antimasker.   What I meant by that was not that the virus would go away, but the fear mongering would.  It would no longer be politically expedient to make a major deal out of it.  In fact it would be detrimental.  Now Biden is in charge of "making it all go away" and we will see how that goes.

My fears center around overwhelming our systems and sure enough the mobile morgues and full ICUs are back...

You can't be realistic and politicize that away.

Watchmaker

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4527 on: November 05, 2020, 08:33:36 AM »
Our hospitals are full again here (MN), refusing transports from our stupid neighbor states (we are surrounded by Covid idiots).

*Waves from rural Wisconsin county with a total of 3 ICU beds where high school football was actually, explicitly, deemed more important than the pandemic*

Watchmaker

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4528 on: November 05, 2020, 08:42:06 AM »
Genuine question-- not trying to argue:

What about those guidelines is upsetting you? What you describe seems perfectly reasonable to me, so I'm obviously missing something.

The unreasonable parts (sanitation logs, rat-out-you-neighbor hotlines) seem to be your invention.

The over reach of health departments putting out advice for things that don't even involve leaving your home or seeing people. Does it not strike you as big brotherish to have a health dept "allowing" you to watch a movie in your home? Would you have ever imagined that the health dept would need to tell you what is permissible in your home on a daily basis? Maybe it doesn't bother you but I see it as over reach and a slippery slope. If they're saying it's OK to drive in your car (with your own family) to look at Halloween decorations, that means that they've weighed the current risks, but someday it might not be OK. In CA, they actually had to make sure to add chanting to singing and shouting, in case you weren't aware that ritualistic noises might ESPECIALLY spread the virus. How is chanting much more infectious than speech reading? What if I were to pull out a copy of the play I wrote, or a long news article? That seems eerily similar to chanting in terms of length / passion / cadence. Should I call them to mention that nothing over 400 words should be permitted or someone might accidentally exceed (what a bunch of office people, may without public health degrees have determined to be) safe levels? Gosh, next all literary works are banned in the back yard. Read up on BLOOP BLOOP and other Aussie's commentary on having a 5 km lockdown going on for months. Is that justifiable here? What are you willing to undergo and what crosses a personal line for you? Laws (and lesser measures) once passed are a lot harder to repeal. It reminds me of old sodomy laws, abortion laws etc. Over reach pure and simple. Next thing you know you're doubting your own judgment because you've been told you're virtuous if you wait for someone to tell you what to do.

Why would CA put out restrictions about the number of people and length of time for Thanksgiving that than to exert control? Is Thanksgiving known to be a day where people would be spreading it much beyond normal capacity of their day to day rules? If 10 people are allowed on Wednesday then why is 10 too much on Thursday? If these aren't meant to be followed then just stick to the normal day to day limit. If they're meant to be followed, that means the police are free to show up and ticket or arrest you for failing to comply. What if you're a minority or you've had a drink and you're not in the mood for anyone's bullshit and the cops pull their guns on you?

Thanks for answering, I really do appreciate you expanding on your thoughts. Again, I'm not looking to argue-- just understand-- so I'm not going to respond to everything. But in the interests of transparency, I'll say none of the things you list as worrying bother me in the slightest. That's the job of the public health department: to give guidance on safe behavior. I'm sure they put a lot of thought in what they include and how they phrase it, so although their suggestion of staying home and watching a movie has rankled you, perhaps it has been helpful for others.  And I would trade Bloop Bloop's government's response over my government's in a heartbeat.

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4529 on: November 05, 2020, 08:47:32 AM »
Our hospitals are full again here (MN), refusing transports from our stupid neighbor states (we are surrounded by Covid idiots).

So yay!

And Thanksgiving hasn't even hit yet.

...but we had the election.  This whole thing was a hoax just to make Trump look bad.

How many people do you know that truly think that? Serious question. Or do you just think that it's funny to say because you heard somewhere on the internet that some Trump supporters had said something along those lines?
2 of my wifeís aunts, her father, one of my sisters, her husband and a bunch of my co-workers are all in the camp of it is a hoax and we will hear nothing about it after the election.

There have been multiple times at work recently when I have said hi and asked someone how they are doing and the first thing out of their mouth is a rant on the virus and how it is a hoax and will go away after the election... I am like ummmm ok well have a nice day and move on.


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OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4530 on: November 05, 2020, 09:05:33 AM »
I'm guilty of saying the virus will be over at the end of the election. I don't think the virus is a hoax and I am not an antimasker.   What I meant by that was not that the virus would go away, but the fear mongering would.  It would no longer be politically expedient to make a major deal out of it.  In fact it would be detrimental.  Now Biden is in charge of "making it all go away" and we will see how that goes.

My fears center around overwhelming our systems and sure enough the mobile morgues and full ICUs are back...

You can't be realistic and politicize that away.

Same. We did the overwhelmed hospitals/field hospital downtown/mobile morgues in my county already. Don't want to go back. I'm guessing Grand Rapids metro will be there soon because on that side of the state it's apparently too much civic responsibility to strap a piece of fabric to one's face in public areas and avoid crowded gatherings in poorly ventilated places.

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4531 on: November 05, 2020, 09:35:22 AM »
I'm guilty of saying the virus will be over at the end of the election. I don't think the virus is a hoax and I am not an antimasker.   What I meant by that was not that the virus would go away, but the fear mongering would.  It would no longer be politically expedient to make a major deal out of it.  In fact it would be detrimental.  Now Biden is in charge of "making it all go away" and we will see how that goes.

I generally agree with this. What you will see in the coming months is less fear mongering, less hysteria, etc. We will start to see rational discussions and rational debates, which is what you are seeing in hour-long BBC debates, German TV, etc.

I don't think it can be understated how much the media put the populace in a mass, irrational psychosis for months. Of course, Trump's terrible leadership at the beginning of this created the void for this psychosis, but we are still living it.

Davnasty

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4532 on: November 05, 2020, 10:26:07 AM »
...This was the biggest argument against lockdowns and other less stringent isolation measures prior to COVID.

Look at this 108 page CDC document from 2007 -- https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/11425

It thoroughly discusses the pros and cons of various policies, from masks to social distancing to closing schools to home isolation. Unfortunately, discussing the "cons" has somehow become aligned with "TRUMP" because, well, who knows.

Read it for yourself, but COVID is quite clearly a "Category 2" Pandemic. We are implementing Category 5 protocols, and all of you guys are using Category 5 logic. Why?

Someone else already pointed this out but you didn't respond so I thought maybe you missed it.

Throughout this document it's stated no less than 10 times that pandemic severity should be based primarily on case fatality rate, which would make the current pandemic a solid 5. Excess deaths is a secondary measure and is based on an "unmitigated pandemic without interventions". Obviously the current pandemic is not unmitigated but projections* based on that reality would have put it at a 4-5 on the severity scale.

Does that answer the question of why?

*For further clarification, projections is what the document calls for when assigning severity. It seems you may have been thinking in terms of actual deaths.

I'd like to continue the deeper discussion, but if you don't have the time a simple yes or no would be appreciated.

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4533 on: November 05, 2020, 10:46:06 AM »
any guess on when we'll be at 200k/day cases in the US? get a nice halloween spike + election spike?

by the time biden is inaugurated, maybe we will have herd immunity and the virus will magically go away (as the q anon crowd thinks it will if biden wins). irony?

We were at 200k cases a day in March / April when deaths peaked but there was not adequate testing... The most telling thing will be what our mortality rates hit when we next hit 200k daily.

Herd immunity by Jan would be amazing (as long as we're far enough along that its conceivable, instead of implying that we're going to get slaughtered for the next 3 months).

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4534 on: November 05, 2020, 10:58:30 AM »
any guess on when we'll be at 200k/day cases in the US? get a nice halloween spike + election spike?

by the time biden is inaugurated, maybe we will have herd immunity and the virus will magically go away (as the q anon crowd thinks it will if biden wins). irony?

We were at 200k cases a day in March / April when deaths peaked but there was not adequate testing... The most telling thing will be what our mortality rates hit when we next hit 200k daily.

Herd immunity by Jan would be amazing (as long as we're far enough along that its conceivable, instead of implying that we're going to get slaughtered for the next 3 months).

You're assuming that herd immunity is possible.  Probably best to get that confirmed before you risk millions of lives.

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4535 on: November 05, 2020, 11:06:09 AM »
any guess on when we'll be at 200k/day cases in the US? get a nice halloween spike + election spike?

by the time biden is inaugurated, maybe we will have herd immunity and the virus will magically go away (as the q anon crowd thinks it will if biden wins). irony?
Assuming immunity to covid sticks..

Let see 332 million people and they are saying that we would need around 70% of the population to get it and recover from it

So 3.2 years @ 200k people contracting it per day to reach herd immunity?

Add in a vaccine and you can cut the time but by Jan 2021? nah not gonna happen.


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frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4536 on: November 05, 2020, 11:09:23 AM »
any guess on when we'll be at 200k/day cases in the US? get a nice halloween spike + election spike?

by the time biden is inaugurated, maybe we will have herd immunity and the virus will magically go away (as the q anon crowd thinks it will if biden wins). irony?

We were at 200k cases a day in March / April when deaths peaked but there was not adequate testing... The most telling thing will be what our mortality rates hit when we next hit 200k daily.

Herd immunity by Jan would be amazing (as long as we're far enough along that its conceivable, instead of implying that we're going to get slaughtered for the next 3 months).

We were never at 200k cases a day ever.  Not even if you assume we were vastly under testing and missing cases (which we were). 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The mortality rate will likely be greatly improved over March/April for a variety of reasons, but the death toll is still going to be astronomical.

Herd immunity is not going to happen and is a terrible strategy.  The experts have been telling us that the entire time.



fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4537 on: November 05, 2020, 11:32:12 AM »

To be clear I am not (nor do I believe anyone else is) equating the legality of drunk driving with recklessly endangering other people with coronavirus infection.  I'm well aware that one is a legal slam dunk, and the other is not prosecutable.   What I'm equating is the underlying action.  Being drunk is a verifiable state, but being drunk doesn't mean you're going to kill someone.  Most people driving home from the bar with 0.08 BAC overwhelmingly arrive home safe.  You could likely do it regularly for years and years and never even get pulled over, let alone crash into and kill someone.  But we do know that compared to sober driving it still has an unacceptably high level of risk, which is why it is illegal nationwide.  The legality is completely beside my point; in fact if drunk driving legislation was repealed in its entirety today, my argument would not change. It's still immoral to drive drunk, not because it's illegal, but because you are foisting a disproportionate amount of risk onto other people.

We know the coronavirus is running rampant through the USA; we are likely to hit 10M cases and 240k deaths before next week.  We know it is airborne, we know we have asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic spread, we know we have community spread in every state, and we know that masks slow the transmission rate.  You can no longer make the claim that you aren't infected and spreading, because you simply don't know.  You think you have an exceedingly low probability of transmitting it, but the numbers speak for themselves.  Attending large gatherings, and not wearing a mask in public places is simply irresponsible. 

It would be like getting pulled over and blowing 0.08 and claiming "but I'm 200 pounds! and I only had 2 beers! I know millions of people all over the country are accidentally going over the legal limit and then unsuspectingly driving drunk, but I had no idea that I could be drunk and should have taken precautions, despite every public health official preaching that exact message to me for several months!".  IMO not a very defensible position.

The essential difference is that

1) we've decided that anyone who is out in public could be "guilty" of spreading it, even if they have no evidence (illness as the weapon, body as the crime). You're trying to make them guilty of a crime for being in society at all (work, socializing, taking kids out etc). You're also trying to attach that to specifically killing a person, which you can't because there isn't an obvious person transmitting it or an obvious person getting it and going on to die. Its entirely possible that someone spreading it might do so in a limited enough capacity that the infected people do not die (IFR is 0.27% so you'd need to be involved in infecting 370 people to statistically ensure it would result in a death). ** Also with the WHO accepting the 0.27% IFR, its most likely that the US has already seen 89 million infections**

2) Drunk drivers have actively chosen to be drunk AND chosen to drive. It is actually possible to engage in daily life in society without drinking at all.  If the govt made alcohol illegal again altogether for the sake of reducing drunk driving deaths, would you consider that an imposition on your life? What if breathalyzers were standard on your vehicle to ensure that you couldn't ever drive drunk? What if you were presumed drunk at all times and it prevented you from being able to travel freely, get medical care, see your loved ones or work? What if the health dept put out a notice telling the public there's been a rise of drunkards and to be on the look out for any person in a car as they might be killing people? What if that made people angry? You might find this ridiculous, but I want to point out that there's 90 pages of people here judging other's actions... Its bullshit, and I think everyone is just trying to do their damn best to get through their time until this is over.

I want to reiterate that this isn't about mask wearing, this is about wantonly ascribing deaths to people who might not have ever presented as sick, and went about in society following local rules. Small gatherings, personal hygeine etc. Hell, YOU might have killed someone!!! And for those who you deem to be "the guilty ones", perhaps have a bit of a conscience that their needs, education, or personal experiences might be different than yours, and you might not understand their circumstances enough to be able to pass judgment.

BTW, you sound like a drunk driving apologist. And you're still arguing in bad faith because you're moaning about how you can't pour arsenic down the drain (something you weren't ever going to do and something that you know is bad and has no benefit).
 

mizzourah2006

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4538 on: November 05, 2020, 11:42:01 AM »
any guess on when we'll be at 200k/day cases in the US? get a nice halloween spike + election spike?

by the time biden is inaugurated, maybe we will have herd immunity and the virus will magically go away (as the q anon crowd thinks it will if biden wins). irony?

We were at 200k cases a day in March / April when deaths peaked but there was not adequate testing... The most telling thing will be what our mortality rates hit when we next hit 200k daily.

Herd immunity by Jan would be amazing (as long as we're far enough along that its conceivable, instead of implying that we're going to get slaughtered for the next 3 months).

We were never at 200k cases a day ever.  Not even if you assume we were vastly under testing and missing cases (which we were). 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The mortality rate will likely be greatly improved over March/April for a variety of reasons, but the death toll is still going to be astronomical.

Herd immunity is not going to happen and is a terrible strategy.  The experts have been telling us that the entire time.

I guess this kind of depends on how you achieve herd immunity doesn't it? One way of achieving herd immunity is via vaccination. Have experts been telling us that's a terrible strategy? Because I missed that.

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4539 on: November 05, 2020, 11:42:11 AM »
any guess on when we'll be at 200k/day cases in the US? get a nice halloween spike + election spike?

by the time biden is inaugurated, maybe we will have herd immunity and the virus will magically go away (as the q anon crowd thinks it will if biden wins). irony?

We were at 200k cases a day in March / April when deaths peaked but there was not adequate testing... The most telling thing will be what our mortality rates hit when we next hit 200k daily.

Herd immunity by Jan would be amazing (as long as we're far enough along that its conceivable, instead of implying that we're going to get slaughtered for the next 3 months).

We were never at 200k cases a day ever.  Not even if you assume we were vastly under testing and missing cases (which we were). 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The mortality rate will likely be greatly improved over March/April for a variety of reasons, but the death toll is still going to be astronomical.

Herd immunity is not going to happen and is a terrible strategy.  The experts have been telling us that the entire time.

Dude, linking to something that proves what case counts we were able to capture, does nothing to quantify the amount of cases we could not capture. I can tell you from experience that many states were not allowed to release tests to people who they thought were worthy of testing, simply because there were not enough tests go go around and their release was being coordinated by the state health dept director.

A 0.27% IFR with 2600+ deaths occurring on many days in March / April infers over 900,000 new infections per day in the weeks prior (before any sort of mitigation occurred). I was being very conservative in only acknowledging that we likely had hit 200,000 infections per day.

mizzourah2006

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4540 on: November 05, 2020, 11:43:40 AM »
any guess on when we'll be at 200k/day cases in the US? get a nice halloween spike + election spike?

by the time biden is inaugurated, maybe we will have herd immunity and the virus will magically go away (as the q anon crowd thinks it will if biden wins). irony?

We were at 200k cases a day in March / April when deaths peaked but there was not adequate testing... The most telling thing will be what our mortality rates hit when we next hit 200k daily.

Herd immunity by Jan would be amazing (as long as we're far enough along that its conceivable, instead of implying that we're going to get slaughtered for the next 3 months).

We were never at 200k cases a day ever.  Not even if you assume we were vastly under testing and missing cases (which we were). 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The mortality rate will likely be greatly improved over March/April for a variety of reasons, but the death toll is still going to be astronomical.

Herd immunity is not going to happen and is a terrible strategy.  The experts have been telling us that the entire time.

Dude, linking to something that proves what case counts we were able to capture, does nothing to quantify the amount of cases we could not capture. I can tell you from experience that many states were not allowed to release tests to people who they thought were worthy of testing, simply because there were not enough tests go go around and their release was being coordinated by the state health dept director.

A 0.27% IFR with 2600+ deaths occurring on many days in March / April infers over 900,000 new infections per day in the weeks prior (before any sort of mitigation occurred). I was being very conservative in only acknowledging that we likely had hit 200,000 infections per day.

They wouldn't test my daughter in March. They tested her for the flu and strep twice and those both came back negative, but wouldn't test her for Coronavirus even though they said it's a strong possibility.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4541 on: November 05, 2020, 11:46:48 AM »
any guess on when we'll be at 200k/day cases in the US? get a nice halloween spike + election spike?

by the time biden is inaugurated, maybe we will have herd immunity and the virus will magically go away (as the q anon crowd thinks it will if biden wins). irony?

We were at 200k cases a day in March / April when deaths peaked but there was not adequate testing... The most telling thing will be what our mortality rates hit when we next hit 200k daily.

Herd immunity by Jan would be amazing (as long as we're far enough along that its conceivable, instead of implying that we're going to get slaughtered for the next 3 months).

We were never at 200k cases a day ever.  Not even if you assume we were vastly under testing and missing cases (which we were). 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The mortality rate will likely be greatly improved over March/April for a variety of reasons, but the death toll is still going to be astronomical.

Herd immunity is not going to happen and is a terrible strategy.  The experts have been telling us that the entire time.

I guess this kind of depends on how you achieve herd immunity doesn't it? One way of achieving herd immunity is via vaccination. Have experts been telling us that's a terrible strategy? Because I missed that.

Neither fuzzymath nor me are talking about vaccinations and you know it. 

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4542 on: November 05, 2020, 11:48:13 AM »
any guess on when we'll be at 200k/day cases in the US? get a nice halloween spike + election spike?

by the time biden is inaugurated, maybe we will have herd immunity and the virus will magically go away (as the q anon crowd thinks it will if biden wins). irony?

We were at 200k cases a day in March / April when deaths peaked but there was not adequate testing... The most telling thing will be what our mortality rates hit when we next hit 200k daily.

Herd immunity by Jan would be amazing (as long as we're far enough along that its conceivable, instead of implying that we're going to get slaughtered for the next 3 months).

We were never at 200k cases a day ever.  Not even if you assume we were vastly under testing and missing cases (which we were). 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The mortality rate will likely be greatly improved over March/April for a variety of reasons, but the death toll is still going to be astronomical.

Herd immunity is not going to happen and is a terrible strategy.  The experts have been telling us that the entire time.

Dude, linking to something that proves what case counts we were able to capture, does nothing to quantify the amount of cases we could not capture. I can tell you from experience that many states were not allowed to release tests to people who they thought were worthy of testing, simply because there were not enough tests go go around and their release was being coordinated by the state health dept director.

A 0.27% IFR with 2600+ deaths occurring on many days in March / April infers over 900,000 new infections per day in the weeks prior (before any sort of mitigation occurred). I was being very conservative in only acknowledging that we likely had hit 200,000 infections per day.

My bad.  Where's your source BTW?  How did you come up with 200k cases/day?

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4543 on: November 05, 2020, 11:52:11 AM »

They wouldn't test my daughter in March. They tested her for the flu and strep twice and those both came back negative, but wouldn't test her for Coronavirus even though they said it's a strong possibility.

My case was run all the way up to the state health director in early March after I disclosed being a healthcare worker and having recently traveled to the Seattle area. No dice. ER docs were literally prevented from releasing a test. Also, after having had a 22 virus panel, and flu A/B swabs all come back negative. I had loss of taste (food literally cardboard), shortness of breath and coughing fits that almost made me pass out. The rest of my family had it too...  5 cases not captured in my home alone, and I can name multiple other people with the same experiences. Nowadays you can be totally fine, and tell people you have loss of taste and its marked a presumed positive.

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4544 on: November 05, 2020, 11:53:15 AM »

Neither fuzzymath nor me are talking about vaccinations and you know it.

Are you thinking he's arguing in bad faith? Man, that's annoying...

mizzourah2006

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4545 on: November 05, 2020, 11:54:47 AM »
any guess on when we'll be at 200k/day cases in the US? get a nice halloween spike + election spike?

by the time biden is inaugurated, maybe we will have herd immunity and the virus will magically go away (as the q anon crowd thinks it will if biden wins). irony?

We were at 200k cases a day in March / April when deaths peaked but there was not adequate testing... The most telling thing will be what our mortality rates hit when we next hit 200k daily.

Herd immunity by Jan would be amazing (as long as we're far enough along that its conceivable, instead of implying that we're going to get slaughtered for the next 3 months).

We were never at 200k cases a day ever.  Not even if you assume we were vastly under testing and missing cases (which we were). 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The mortality rate will likely be greatly improved over March/April for a variety of reasons, but the death toll is still going to be astronomical.

Herd immunity is not going to happen and is a terrible strategy.  The experts have been telling us that the entire time.

I guess this kind of depends on how you achieve herd immunity doesn't it? One way of achieving herd immunity is via vaccination. Have experts been telling us that's a terrible strategy? Because I missed that.

Neither fuzzymath nor me are talking about vaccinations and you know it.

Oh I thought because you were trolling so much on this thread it was fair for others to. I didn't realize you were the only person allowed to do that. Go back to drunk driving and pouring cyanide down your sink.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4546 on: November 05, 2020, 11:57:37 AM »

To be clear I am not (nor do I believe anyone else is) equating the legality of drunk driving with recklessly endangering other people with coronavirus infection.  I'm well aware that one is a legal slam dunk, and the other is not prosecutable.   What I'm equating is the underlying action.  Being drunk is a verifiable state, but being drunk doesn't mean you're going to kill someone.  Most people driving home from the bar with 0.08 BAC overwhelmingly arrive home safe.  You could likely do it regularly for years and years and never even get pulled over, let alone crash into and kill someone.  But we do know that compared to sober driving it still has an unacceptably high level of risk, which is why it is illegal nationwide.  The legality is completely beside my point; in fact if drunk driving legislation was repealed in its entirety today, my argument would not change. It's still immoral to drive drunk, not because it's illegal, but because you are foisting a disproportionate amount of risk onto other people.

We know the coronavirus is running rampant through the USA; we are likely to hit 10M cases and 240k deaths before next week.  We know it is airborne, we know we have asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic spread, we know we have community spread in every state, and we know that masks slow the transmission rate.  You can no longer make the claim that you aren't infected and spreading, because you simply don't know.  You think you have an exceedingly low probability of transmitting it, but the numbers speak for themselves.  Attending large gatherings, and not wearing a mask in public places is simply irresponsible. 

It would be like getting pulled over and blowing 0.08 and claiming "but I'm 200 pounds! and I only had 2 beers! I know millions of people all over the country are accidentally going over the legal limit and then unsuspectingly driving drunk, but I had no idea that I could be drunk and should have taken precautions, despite every public health official preaching that exact message to me for several months!".  IMO not a very defensible position.

The essential difference is that

1) we've decided that anyone who is out in public could be "guilty" of spreading it, even if they have no evidence (illness as the weapon, body as the crime). You're trying to make them guilty of a crime for being in society at all (work, socializing, taking kids out etc). You're also trying to attach that to specifically killing a person, which you can't because there isn't an obvious person transmitting it or an obvious person getting it and going on to die. Its entirely possible that someone spreading it might do so in a limited enough capacity that the infected people do not die (IFR is 0.27% so you'd need to be involved in infecting 370 people to statistically ensure it would result in a death). ** Also with the WHO accepting the 0.27% IFR, its most likely that the US has already seen 89 million infections**

2) Drunk drivers have actively chosen to be drunk AND chosen to drive. It is actually possible to engage in daily life in society without drinking at all.  If the govt made alcohol illegal again altogether for the sake of reducing drunk driving deaths, would you consider that an imposition on your life? What if breathalyzers were standard on your vehicle to ensure that you couldn't ever drive drunk? What if you were presumed drunk at all times and it prevented you from being able to travel freely, get medical care, see your loved ones or work? What if the health dept put out a notice telling the public there's been a rise of drunkards and to be on the look out for any person in a car as they might be killing people? What if that made people angry? You might find this ridiculous, but I want to point out that there's 90 pages of people here judging other's actions... Its bullshit, and I think everyone is just trying to do their damn best to get through their time until this is over.

I want to reiterate that this isn't about mask wearing, this is about wantonly ascribing deaths to people who might not have ever presented as sick, and went about in society following local rules. Small gatherings, personal hygeine etc. Hell, YOU might have killed someone!!! And for those who you deem to be "the guilty ones", perhaps have a bit of a conscience that their needs, education, or personal experiences might be different than yours, and you might not understand their circumstances enough to be able to pass judgment.

BTW, you sound like a drunk driving apologist. And you're still arguing in bad faith because you're moaning about how you can't pour arsenic down the drain (something you weren't ever going to do and something that you know is bad and has no benefit).

I'm not a drunk driving apologist, I'm trying to point out how ridiculous your argument is.  Perhaps I needed to add an /s since it's not obvious to you when I'm being obviously sarcastic.

Following the same logic it's absolutely ridiculous that I can be charged for merely being drunk.  I haven't crashed into anyone.  I haven't killed anyone.  I simply needed to go about my business and get my car home.  You'd probably have to wait until I drunk drove like 100 times to statistically ensure that I actually killed someone. /s


It's obvious we aren't going to change each other's minds and I don't think we are having a productive discussion. 

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4547 on: November 05, 2020, 12:07:57 PM »

My bad.  Where's your source BTW?  How did you come up with 200k cases/day?

Follow the previous conversation...

any guess on when we'll be at 200k/day cases in the US? get a nice halloween spike + election spike?

We were at 200k cases a day in March / April when deaths peaked but there was not adequate testing... The most telling thing will be what our mortality rates hit when we next hit 200k daily.

SOURCE: https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf

Even if we use a higher IFR of 0.57% (as possibly evidenced by our higher mortality rates, which again are skewed due to lack of testing) we'd come up with 460,000 infections per day.

Equation

1                              x number of infections
-------                 =     -----------
IFR as a decimal        daily deaths

1                             x number of infections
-------            =       ----------------
0.0057                     2600 deaths

Solve for X at an IFR of 0.57% and the daily rate is 460,000 infections. With an IFR of 0.27% its over 900,000 infections

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4548 on: November 05, 2020, 12:20:19 PM »


I'm not a drunk driving apologist, I'm trying to point out how ridiculous your argument is.  Perhaps I needed to add an /s since it's not obvious to you when I'm being obviously sarcastic.

Following the same logic it's absolutely ridiculous that I can be charged for merely being drunk.  I haven't crashed into anyone.  I haven't killed anyone.  I simply needed to go about my business and get my car home.  You'd probably have to wait until I drunk drove like 100 times to statistically ensure that I actually killed someone. /s

It's obvious we aren't going to change each other's minds and I don't think we are having a productive discussion.

I already told you that the equivalent would be putting others at risk by intentionally coughing on them or on public surfaces while sick (which people have been arrested for https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/grocery-store-throws-out-35k-worth-food-woman-coughed-twisted-n1169401 https://www.sacbee.com/news/nation-world/national/article244971700.html). But yes, you've forgotten that so no I don't think we're having a productive discussion.

I knew you weren't arguing in good faith (as I've stated repeatedly), but labelling it sarcasm was not a compliment I was going to hand out.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4549 on: November 05, 2020, 12:29:00 PM »


I'm not a drunk driving apologist, I'm trying to point out how ridiculous your argument is.  Perhaps I needed to add an /s since it's not obvious to you when I'm being obviously sarcastic.

Following the same logic it's absolutely ridiculous that I can be charged for merely being drunk.  I haven't crashed into anyone.  I haven't killed anyone.  I simply needed to go about my business and get my car home.  You'd probably have to wait until I drunk drove like 100 times to statistically ensure that I actually killed someone. /s

It's obvious we aren't going to change each other's minds and I don't think we are having a productive discussion.

I already told you that the equivalent would be putting others at risk by intentionally coughing on them or on public surfaces while sick (which people have been arrested for https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/grocery-store-throws-out-35k-worth-food-woman-coughed-twisted-n1169401 https://www.sacbee.com/news/nation-world/national/article244971700.html). But yes, you've forgotten that so no I don't think we're having a productive discussion.

I knew you weren't arguing in good faith (as I've stated repeatedly), but labelling it sarcasm was not a compliment I was going to hand out.

Wouldn't intentionally coughing on people be the equivalent of raging around in your car and intentionally trying to hit people (while drunk)?

And driving home from the bar, while not intentionally trying to hit people, would be the equivalent of going about your daily business while (knowingly) infected?

The crux of my entire argument is that unlike being drunk, you don't know if you are infected.  You seem to have a major issue with using the assumption that you are in fact infected (whether you actually are or not), as if the default assumption is that you are not infected.  But you also just laid out the math that the usa has had potentially up to 90M cases of infection.   I'm honestly not sure how you can simultaneously believe infections are that widespread, but also believe it's unreasonable to simply assume you are infected and take reasonable precautions.