Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 356819 times)

sui generis

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4350 on: October 30, 2020, 03:08:29 PM »
I do consider myself lucky for the minor inconveniences I have suffered.  But I also have to attribute that to ingenuity, creativity and relentlessness of the human spirit (not my own, I am purely riding coattails here).  My podcast club went virtual and even though we only existed for less than 6 months prior to COVID, we maintained our group and I look so forward to our stimulating discussions each month.  I do miss the potlucks, and we hope to go back to them, but we've now existed online longer than in-person and we all love seeing each others' pets on zoom each month.

My husband plays cards and other games online with his high school buddies.  This is an improvement from before COVID times because they all live in the same town on the other coast from us, so he has gotten to interact with them more (and not be left out, since they did used to get together for that kind of stuff in person).

We "went to" a comedy show last weekend!  As always, the quality of the comedy can vary, but they had special audio instructions so we could all hear each others' laughter without interrupting the comic, so not really a diminished experience and hey, the drinks were a lot cheaper and tastier at home!

I am also a laywer, although FIREd, but I am taking advantage of virtual options to volunteer on voter protection issues for the election and it's good for the soul and great to work with other professionals in this way.  My prior work as an attorney (transactional) was 1,000x more boring and isolating, so this is an improvement (though not due to the pandemic, due to FIRE!).

I spend prob 3-6 hours per day on zoom (not including the fun stuff like comedy shows and podcast clubs) and it's true I'm sick of zoom.  But I'm still grateful it exists.  This pandemic would be a million times worse (for me and many other that benefit from it - I recognize not everyone does) if it didn't.  It (and other tech) made it easier when my mom broke her hip in the spring and I may not have been able to visit even without the pandemic (due to distance) or for family birthdays, which we just always sent texts for, but stepped it up during the pandemic into actual family zooms.

I'm not an introvert, but I do appreciate my alone time at home.  I miss traveling, but I also really love being home, so I'm hanging in there.  I wish DH and I had taken more advantage of outdoor performances and things during the summer.  We've committed to looking harder for options that might still happen during our mild winter here on the CA coast.  I bet there will be some because people are getting really creative and pushing boundaries.  I have to look harder, but I know there's all kinds of untapped potential out there that I could be taking more advantage of.  Facing the holidays without seeing family in person will be a major, perhaps the most significant, impact to us.  We can't fix everything or make lemonade out of every lemon, but we are currently planning a backpacking trip to at least occupy ourselves. 

I don't want to be overly rosy, but I know this is not the worst humanity has lived through.  It's small comfort to those suffering, but I think stepping back and seeing the big picture can be helpful as well, particularly when talking about policy.

Jouer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4351 on: October 30, 2020, 03:13:08 PM »
We donít have mask mandate and our authorities donít support mask wearing. I am a pretty big introvert but honestly I am starting to getting really tired of this. I work from home about 2-3 days a week and rest from the office. Previously I worked from home from march to july. From september I have been working part time from the office because I need some socializing and the intellectual stimulance. During the spring and Summer it was ok because you could be outdoors but now when the dark and rainy season have started it is getting hard.

I miss going to the gym. I miss going to seminars and conferences and chat business with people. I miss seeing my grandfather. I miss sitting in a restaurant and cafť and enjoying my time instead of wondering why that family choose the table next to us when there was other available. I miss going to restaurants and not cringe when someone coughs. Or taking the bus without being bothered by the coughing of someone. I miss going to places that I today avoid because I would have to take public transport to get there. And above all I miss traveling, because who want to travel outside of the country and risk getting stuck there.

I am a homebody, but even I am tired of being home and of my own company. I am actually considering buying a house in the suburbs to get a garden and my own gym. So I actually understand the feeling of giving up every aspect of your life because it feels like I have given up lot of the enjoyable aspects. I am still going to do my best to socially distance but I will not be as strict as I have been during the spring and most of the summer.

I mean, we're all tired of it. It sucks the big one. We readily admit that we're eating a big shit sandwich for the better good right now. And some of us recognize that it needs to continue for quite a bit longer.

I live in a small condo and work from home. And now workout from home. And always eat at home. And my wife works from home. At the same table as me. It's fucking tiring, man. I miss seeing people in-person. I miss concerts and the theatre. But we persevere on because we feel we have to. We don't just give up because it's hard. We figure out workarounds b/c we're smart muther fuckers around here. I use resistance bands as my home gym. I have a foldable exercise bike that fits in my closet b/c there's no room in this shoebox of an apartment to leave it out somewhere. I have two friends in this city I moved to a year ago. I see them once a month for distancing beers. Imma do it in winter, too, with a parka on if need be, like I did when I was 16. Because there's no such thing as bad weather....only inappropriate clothing.

Be safe out there, folks, for gawd sakes!

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4352 on: October 30, 2020, 03:18:38 PM »
Re: government "figuring something out"

What do you think a better, more accessible, sustainable and cost effective solution is in comparison with mask wearing and social distancing?

For starters, if I were governor of Ohio, I would:

1) Immediately allow schools and colleges to fully reopen without any restrictions whatsoever. Staff who felt vulnerable could opt out with paid leave for 12 months or, for colleges, remotely lecture from an alternate location.

2) Dedicate all the resources being wasted by our colleges and universities to nursing homes and hospitals. Universities are basically engaged in a PR stunt right now with all the testing, contact tracing, etc.  There have been over 5,000,000 tests, with 150,000 positive tests, on students. There have been a grand total of 15 hospitalizations and 0 deaths. This group is 99.997% not at risk. It's an incredible waste of resources that could be better spent on protecting the more vulnerable populations that need protected.

3) Use these tests and designate family members as essential workers eligible to be tested two times a week so they can visit loved ones in nursing homes.  What we are doing to our elderly is one of the great crimes in modern history. NBC had a tragic story this week quoting nursing home industry professionals from across the country stating that loneliness, despair, and anxiety are greater threats to this population than COVID.

4) Stop the sanitation silliness, which is again a waste of resources. The scientific consensus (from what I've read in WaPo/The Atlantic) is that surface spread is minimal and that the focus should be on ventilation. I would provide grants to stores, restaurants, etc. to improve ventilation.

5) Ensure that PCR tests are not cycling at above 35 cycles (many currently have 40 cycles, which is absurd). Per Fauci, while above 35 is "technically positive, the chances of that being replication competent are extremely low. In other words, you could have a PCR-positive test and yet still not be contagious."

6) Have to be frank -- the science supporting non-fitted cloth masks is bunk, so I would not mandate masks. If we could distribute N-95s to every household, and have them all professionally fitted, that's a different story.

7) Continue the emphasis on treatments, as that is our best hope. Our treatments have improved to such a degree that COVID deaths are starting to fall in line with all cause mortality. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-covid-deaths-age-related-pattern-expert.html

8) Acknowledge that obesity is the second most important correlation for fatal outcomes (behind age). Be honest with citizens and tell those at risk that being obese puts them at far greater risk.

***

In sum, I would target our resources and get on with life. I think holistic public health has suffered greatly and I think we need to pivot to more sane and humanitarian policy.
So basically the Trump administrations plan is what you would shoot for.


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wenchsenior

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4353 on: October 30, 2020, 03:34:49 PM »
Why do you think people don't give a shit? I give many shits. We work to lower transmission rates of other deadly diseases like HIV by advising protective practices. We encourage vaccination for things like the flu and HPV. What deadly diseases do you believe people are apathetic about spreading?

I've never heard anybody call someone who contracted the flu a murderer before, just asking what threshold we start that at.  Seems to be a new thing, but maybe I'm just one of the XKCD 10,000 today.

Well, I don't think of myself as 'a murderer' b/c that would have required active plan to harm.  But since I hit my 30s and grew the fuck up, I regularly look back at my oblivious selfish teen and 20 something self with horror akin to loathing.  How the fuck could I have so regularly gotten the flu (almost yearly...b/c school) and yet obliviously continued to go out and about during the height of flu season and I behaved pretty much normal...didn't worry about what I might catch or (much more importantly) might spread...doing errands, traveling (even on planes when I was sick, b/c canceling flights or changing plans was troublesome or expensive, I am so so ashamed to admit now), etc.  I honestly do not remember ever hearing that people died of the flu when I was a teen or young college student, but of course, I didn't watch the news back then and the internet hadn't been invented yet. So maybe that's a little excuse. But honestly, I probably would have ignored that info even if I'd known it.

In the years since, as I've had several friends whose health was devastated by the flu (and experienced frightening Guillaine Barre type reactions to a 'minor cold' myself),  the hard cold light of self-awareness dawned, and I have to admit there is real possibility that my negligence in my teens and twenties killed someone. Perhaps multiple someones.

It's not a pleasant thought.  Must be nice for those of you who can shrug it off.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2020, 03:39:07 PM by wenchsenior »

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4354 on: October 30, 2020, 03:43:48 PM »
Re: government "figuring something out"

What do you think a better, more accessible, sustainable and cost effective solution is in comparison with mask wearing and social distancing?

For starters, if I were governor of Ohio, I would:

1) Immediately allow schools and colleges to fully reopen without any restrictions whatsoever. Staff who felt vulnerable could opt out with paid leave for 12 months or, for colleges, remotely lecture from an alternate location.

2) Dedicate all the resources being wasted by our colleges and universities to nursing homes and hospitals. Universities are basically engaged in a PR stunt right now with all the testing, contact tracing, etc.  There have been over 5,000,000 tests, with 150,000 positive tests, on students. There have been a grand total of 15 hospitalizations and 0 deaths. This group is 99.997% not at risk. It's an incredible waste of resources that could be better spent on protecting the more vulnerable populations that need protected.

3) Use these tests and designate family members as essential workers eligible to be tested two times a week so they can visit loved ones in nursing homes.  What we are doing to our elderly is one of the great crimes in modern history. NBC had a tragic story this week quoting nursing home industry professionals from across the country stating that loneliness, despair, and anxiety are greater threats to this population than COVID.

4) Stop the sanitation silliness, which is again a waste of resources. The scientific consensus (from what I've read in WaPo/The Atlantic) is that surface spread is minimal and that the focus should be on ventilation. I would provide grants to stores, restaurants, etc. to improve ventilation.

5) Ensure that PCR tests are not cycling at above 35 cycles (many currently have 40 cycles, which is absurd). Per Fauci, while above 35 is "technically positive, the chances of that being replication competent are extremely low. In other words, you could have a PCR-positive test and yet still not be contagious."

6) Have to be frank -- the science supporting non-fitted cloth masks is bunk, so I would not mandate masks. If we could distribute N-95s to every household, and have them all professionally fitted, that's a different story.

7) Continue the emphasis on treatments, as that is our best hope. Our treatments have improved to such a degree that COVID deaths are starting to fall in line with all cause mortality. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-covid-deaths-age-related-pattern-expert.html

8) Acknowledge that obesity is the second most important correlation for fatal outcomes (behind age). Be honest with citizens and tell those at risk that being obese puts them at far greater risk.

***

In sum, I would target our resources and get on with life. I think holistic public health has suffered greatly and I think we need to pivot to more sane and humanitarian policy.
So basically the Trump administrations plan is what you would shoot for.


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I at least put myself out there. Whatís your plan? What do you disagree with?

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4355 on: October 30, 2020, 03:47:00 PM »
Three scientists from Harvard, Stanford, and Oxford ó

https://www.newsweek.com/we-should-focus-protecting-vulnerable-covid-infection-opinion-1543225

Quote
Some have argued that it is impossible to separate older and younger generations. While 100 percent separation is impossible, with the current lockdown and contact tracing strategy, we have "successfully" shifted infection risk from the professional class to the working class. With the focused protection measures outlined above, it will prove no more difficult to shift infection risk away from high-risk older people.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4356 on: October 30, 2020, 04:08:06 PM »
My life has absolutely been impacted. I enjoy going to sporting events too. In fact, I had tickets to Tokyo Olympic games. I love Japan and I love sports. Needless to say I was super excited about going and I was bummed that it didn't happen. But much like not being able to attend 25 straight Ohio State-Michigan games, this is a first world problem on steroids.

I'm very sorry about your mother. I can't imagine how difficult it must've been to not be able to physically be there for her. But I can't wrap my head around irrecoverable boiling rage over this. Your mother was incredibly vulnerable. These precautions are put into place to protect people like her. Because this virus has already killed a quarter-million people in the states and it will kill tens of thousands more by the end of the year, with older people and the immunocompromised being the most at risk. It wasn't like that was misguided red tape that kept you from her. It was a precaution that likely has near universal agreement.

2020 hasn't been a banner year for anyone. But people like us (privileged and rich Americans) should consider it an honor to do what we can to help out. And we're lucky to be able to make the best of it. We can work from home. So many don't have that option. We can afford the technology and creature comforts to make it easier on ourselves. I haven't been to a bar this year, but I've played drinking games with my friends over Zoom many times. No concerts, but I've chilled in the backyard with friends, listened to music and drank beers. No fancy meals, but I've rediscovered the McDonald's double cheeseburger. No haunted houses this Halloween, but a fun and spooky Dungeons and Dragons campaign with friends over Discord. And books! I'm reading books again! Taking drives just for the sake of getting in my car and listening to a podcast.

I'm happy that you've decided to have card games again. And if your mental health is suffering as bad as it is, then I fully endorse you loosening up and doing a little more. No judgements. I just reject that the country as a whole is right to be "over" it. We can and should expect more from each other on a nationwide scale.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4357 on: October 30, 2020, 04:11:56 PM »
I at least put myself out there. Whatís your plan? What do you disagree with?

+1

RSM put in the effort to make that list and deserves the same effort in kind. I love snarky dismissals as much as the next person on the Internet, but they're lazy.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4358 on: October 30, 2020, 04:23:35 PM »
I at least put myself out there. Whatís your plan? What do you disagree with?

+1

RSM put in the effort to make that list and deserves the same effort in kind. I love snarky dismissals as much as the next person on the Internet, but they're lazy.

As I said, when I have time/attention (and am not on mobile device) I will provide a reply

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4359 on: October 30, 2020, 04:25:36 PM »
I at least put myself out there. Whatís your plan? What do you disagree with?

+1

RSM put in the effort to make that list and deserves the same effort in kind. I love snarky dismissals as much as the next person on the Internet, but they're lazy.

As I said, when I have time/attention (and am not on mobile device) I will provide a reply

That was directed at @the_fixer

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4360 on: October 30, 2020, 04:33:37 PM »
Why do you think people don't give a shit? I give many shits. We work to lower transmission rates of other deadly diseases like HIV by advising protective practices. We encourage vaccination for things like the flu and HPV. What deadly diseases do you believe people are apathetic about spreading?

I've never heard anybody call someone who contracted the flu a murderer before, just asking what threshold we start that at.  Seems to be a new thing, but maybe I'm just one of the XKCD 10,000 today.

Very few people contract a fatal case of genital warts, but I suspect most would be seriously pissed at you if you gave them some rather than use common sense protection.

PDXTabs

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4361 on: October 30, 2020, 04:35:55 PM »
Very few people contract a fatal case of genital warts, but I suspect most would be seriously pissed at you if you gave them some rather than use common sense protection.

Or at least have a conversation before embarking on anything risky. That's the problem with the current situation, risky behavior is easy to inflict on a stranger without consent.

the_fixer

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How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4362 on: October 30, 2020, 05:51:29 PM »
Re: government "figuring something out"

What do you think a better, more accessible, sustainable and cost effective solution is in comparison with mask wearing and social distancing?

For starters, if I were governor of Ohio, I would:

1) Immediately allow schools and colleges to fully reopen without any restrictions whatsoever. Staff who felt vulnerable could opt out with paid leave for 12 months or, for colleges, remotely lecture from an alternate location.

2) Dedicate all the resources being wasted by our colleges and universities to nursing homes and hospitals. Universities are basically engaged in a PR stunt right now with all the testing, contact tracing, etc.  There have been over 5,000,000 tests, with 150,000 positive tests, on students. There have been a grand total of 15 hospitalizations and 0 deaths. This group is 99.997% not at risk. It's an incredible waste of resources that could be better spent on protecting the more vulnerable populations that need protected.

3) Use these tests and designate family members as essential workers eligible to be tested two times a week so they can visit loved ones in nursing homes.  What we are doing to our elderly is one of the great crimes in modern history. NBC had a tragic story this week quoting nursing home industry professionals from across the country stating that loneliness, despair, and anxiety are greater threats to this population than COVID.

4) Stop the sanitation silliness, which is again a waste of resources. The scientific consensus (from what I've read in WaPo/The Atlantic) is that surface spread is minimal and that the focus should be on ventilation. I would provide grants to stores, restaurants, etc. to improve ventilation.

5) Ensure that PCR tests are not cycling at above 35 cycles (many currently have 40 cycles, which is absurd). Per Fauci, while above 35 is "technically positive, the chances of that being replication competent are extremely low. In other words, you could have a PCR-positive test and yet still not be contagious."

6) Have to be frank -- the science supporting non-fitted cloth masks is bunk, so I would not mandate masks. If we could distribute N-95s to every household, and have them all professionally fitted, that's a different story.

7) Continue the emphasis on treatments, as that is our best hope. Our treatments have improved to such a degree that COVID deaths are starting to fall in line with all cause mortality. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-covid-deaths-age-related-pattern-expert.html

8) Acknowledge that obesity is the second most important correlation for fatal outcomes (behind age). Be honest with citizens and tell those at risk that being obese puts them at far greater risk.

***

In sum, I would target our resources and get on with life. I think holistic public health has suffered greatly and I think we need to pivot to more sane and humanitarian policy.
So basically the Trump administrations plan is what you would shoot for.


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I at least put myself out there. Whatís your plan? What do you disagree with?
I disagree with most and only slightly with the school side of things.

I am not a doctor or policy maker but some things I think I would do / do different if given the chance.

1. No matter who is in power it would have been a good use of the offices of president, state and local governments to target messaging to bring people together and evoke a patriotic environment in our nation to get everyone onboard with whatever the best course of action was determined. Much like 9/11, hurricanes and war efforts of the past look at what the US is capable of when we are mobilized and not at each others throats.

2. If I knew that we needed to save the N95 and other PPE for the healthcare workers and thought that fabric masks could slow the spread I would have put forth a few designs that were easy to replicate using basic materials found at home and sent a message asking people at home to come together to make masks and distribute them as a patriotic duty to keep businesses open and slow the spread. Much like our local governor I would have been the first to wear it and he even asked people to make their own and show it off  on the state website as a way to encourage people to make / wear them.

3. I would have developed a consistent message and worked with people on the state and federal level across the board on how to safely open things up including expectations and how to implement with some type of carrot / stick situation to encourage compliance.

4. I would have urged businesses to have as many people work from home as possible nation wide possibly with incentives to companies.

5. I would have asked business and patrons to use curbside pickup and delivery not only to slow the spread but to protect the health of people working in the businesses

6. I would give parents and teachers the option to either do in person learning or remote learning. Some students are better equipped to  distance learn and some need in person. I would make it to where the teachers could choose based on their health / risk considerations.

7. I would make sure I was sending the message that if we do a good job of social distancing, wearing masks and all of the other things we will be better off for health and safety as well as economically as people will have confidence to go out and do business and the cases should stay lower.

8. I would encourage people to get outside in a safe manner and enjoy time with friends and family in a responsible manner including guidance.

9. I would be putting in every effort to make sure that stimulus was not held up and that we could work together to ensure that we get money where it needs to go.

10. I would put in every effort to work in partnership with our allies on developments and best practices this is a global issue and not just a US issue.

11. I would have quarantined all people coming from outside of the country.

12. Not sure if this one would have been necessary if we used the proper messaging but I would have someway discouraged or not allowed big events like the Sturgis bike rally to happen.

13. I personally would discourage large in person events (concerts, sporting events, rallies, protests and even offer alternative solutions to encourage safe behavior.

14. I think the testing has been ok but I would have taken up offers from other countries for their tests while we developed ours.

15. I would provide guidance / framework for contact tracing that was clear including for business.

I think the steps towards a vaccine and treatments have been good

However I am big enough to say that I would not want the job of deciding nor would I be qualified


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« Last Edit: October 30, 2020, 06:19:24 PM by the_fixer »

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4363 on: October 30, 2020, 06:20:02 PM »
Re: government "figuring something out"

What do you think a better, more accessible, sustainable and cost effective solution is in comparison with mask wearing and social distancing?

For starters, if I were governor of Ohio, I would:

1) Immediately allow schools and colleges to fully reopen without any restrictions whatsoever. Staff who felt vulnerable could opt out with paid leave for 12 months or, for colleges, remotely lecture from an alternate location.

2) Dedicate all the resources being wasted by our colleges and universities to nursing homes and hospitals. Universities are basically engaged in a PR stunt right now with all the testing, contact tracing, etc.  There have been over 5,000,000 tests, with 150,000 positive tests, on students. There have been a grand total of 15 hospitalizations and 0 deaths. This group is 99.997% not at risk. It's an incredible waste of resources that could be better spent on protecting the more vulnerable populations that need protected.

3) Use these tests and designate family members as essential workers eligible to be tested two times a week so they can visit loved ones in nursing homes.  What we are doing to our elderly is one of the great crimes in modern history. NBC had a tragic story this week quoting nursing home industry professionals from across the country stating that loneliness, despair, and anxiety are greater threats to this population than COVID.

4) Stop the sanitation silliness, which is again a waste of resources. The scientific consensus (from what I've read in WaPo/The Atlantic) is that surface spread is minimal and that the focus should be on ventilation. I would provide grants to stores, restaurants, etc. to improve ventilation.

5) Ensure that PCR tests are not cycling at above 35 cycles (many currently have 40 cycles, which is absurd). Per Fauci, while above 35 is "technically positive, the chances of that being replication competent are extremely low. In other words, you could have a PCR-positive test and yet still not be contagious."

6) Have to be frank -- the science supporting non-fitted cloth masks is bunk, so I would not mandate masks. If we could distribute N-95s to every household, and have them all professionally fitted, that's a different story.

7) Continue the emphasis on treatments, as that is our best hope. Our treatments have improved to such a degree that COVID deaths are starting to fall in line with all cause mortality. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-covid-deaths-age-related-pattern-expert.html

8) Acknowledge that obesity is the second most important correlation for fatal outcomes (behind age). Be honest with citizens and tell those at risk that being obese puts them at far greater risk.

***

In sum, I would target our resources and get on with life. I think holistic public health has suffered greatly and I think we need to pivot to more sane and humanitarian policy.

1) how do you protect faculty staff (i am not anti grade school opening) if you dont have enough who are willing to teach in person? Do you fire them all?

2) I obviously do not discount the need for nursing home and hospital testing. MY own FT org demands that I have a NP PCR test weekly. The State requires that LTC facilities test employees be tested weekly (though does not require the minilobotomies) HOWEVER, i do not view college testing as a stunt. Any congregate living setting (dorms, nursing homes, cruise ships) is high risk for spread. Just because the students are not high risk for death doesnt mean they arent likely a key cog in commmunity transmission.

3) yeah the lack of visitation sucks, staff are shining right now though. Many facilities have really come through with ipads and skype calls and alternate activities for their residents. I hope we contain the spread soon so non-humanitarian visitation can resume soon.

4) not useless but yeah over emphasized.

5) better safe than sorry. No offense but this is not at all a problem.

6) non-fitted n95 isnt as useful in a covid ward, but limiting the distance a cough, sneeze, yodeling droplet can fly DOES limit the amount and distance the virus spreads. Is it a magic bullet? absolutely not. But it isnt useless.

7) definitely and I am so so glad. This is the whole point of keeping the curve flat, buying time until we have more knowledge and resources to reduce morbidity and mortality.

8) it is a risk, BUT it isnt a useful intervention for large segments of the population right now. Anecdotally, my dear friend who died of COVID after contracting it at our hospital (his funeral is Sunday) was not obese. Neither was I. I was still sick for weeks. Neither of us was over 60.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4364 on: October 30, 2020, 06:41:47 PM »
I'm not going to direct this post any any particular member, but at the conversation as a whole.

Masks and distancing (masks are not a substitute for distancing) are IMPORTANT and are not particularly burdensome. That's the key, imo. This isnt keeping citizens locked at home. This is minimal inconvenience for a fairly large return.

As far as the changes to daily life, i think that this is a great opportunity to practice resilience and adaptability. If "our kids deserve Halloween" (not aimed at any complaints declared here) maybe Halloween doesn't have to look like trick or treating to 75 strangers. Maybe other fall activities are good, too. Frankly, i've found this time a great opportunity to model resilience and adaptability to the children in my life. I have also had to adapt my social interactions. I have had game emulator events where we have online games of cards against humanity with friends. We've also had rabit app movie nights and simple zoom get togethers.

This evening I took a distanced walk with a friend while we had hot cider with butter scotch schnapps in it.

Regularly I have been having zoom nights with my godfather and his wife where we hang out for an hour and drink the same cocktail (in our case gin basil smash) as a bonding event.

My sister has converted her woodworking shop into what is essentially a covered patio so that our immediate family can have distanced gatherings.

What I really really miss is church. I dont care how much livestream Mass happens and whether the diocese has dispensed the requirement for Eucharist, it just isnt the same as in person. In my case, the church has opened with distancing and masks, but I opt out because i do not want to expose the congregation to my hospital germs.

I also miss regular restaurants. Specifically, at a local bakery. Spouse and i used to walk for a donut on Saturday mornings.

My life isnt the same for a lot of reasons. I've lost a lot of loved ones, including longtime friends while we attempted CPR. but masking and distancing are not problems here. Indeed, they are simple, cost effective methods to eventually gain back everything the muh freedom crowd claims to want to get back to.

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4365 on: October 30, 2020, 08:35:10 PM »
Table 1 in this
https://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-emergencies/coronavirus-covid-19/weekly-surveillance-report

Says that only 11% of people dying of covid19 were obese, while most had cardiovascular disease and/or diabetes. This is obviously the European population, but as 10% - 30% of the European population is obese, I find it difficult to believe that obesity actually is much of a risk factor. Would someone care to supply a reliable source that says otherwise?

As a result of social distancing and hand sanitizers (masking and the second lockdown were only in place in Victoria), Australia has had almost no flu this year and many other diseases have collapsed. I havenít had a common cold at all this winter, and nobody I know has had one either.

I remember when drink driving was OK. It took quite a lot of work for it to be the demon it is today. If we accept social distancing in queues and hand sanitizers as normal practice after the pandemic, we will have gained something. There has also been a concerted effort here to be nice to others - not to be rude about social distancing or other things. A help desk operator I was talking to yesterday said that if that carries over past the pandemic we will have gained something else as well.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2020, 08:54:40 PM by deborah »

dandarc

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4366 on: October 30, 2020, 09:00:07 PM »
Now I really want to know RSM's story. "Avoid crowds, particularly indoor crowds, and wear a mask when in public" = "giving up every aspect of your life".

What does life look like that this is remotely true?

I just assumed that he goes to a lot of raves and communicates mostly by lip reading.  (Too many raves will make you deaf!)
The lip reading thing is a concern. My wife got some masks with a clear mouth part as her cousin is very hard of hearing. However, they don't work very well at all.

Plina

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4367 on: October 31, 2020, 01:00:04 AM »
We donít have mask mandate and our authorities donít support mask wearing. I am a pretty big introvert but honestly I am starting to getting really tired of this. I work from home about 2-3 days a week and rest from the office. Previously I worked from home from march to july. From september I have been working part time from the office because I need some socializing and the intellectual stimulance. During the spring and Summer it was ok because you could be outdoors but now when the dark and rainy season have started it is getting hard.

I miss going to the gym. I miss going to seminars and conferences and chat business with people. I miss seeing my grandfather. I miss sitting in a restaurant and cafť and enjoying my time instead of wondering why that family choose the table next to us when there was other available. I miss going to restaurants and not cringe when someone coughs. Or taking the bus without being bothered by the coughing of someone. I miss going to places that I today avoid because I would have to take public transport to get there. And above all I miss traveling, because who want to travel outside of the country and risk getting stuck there.

I am a homebody, but even I am tired of being home and of my own company. I am actually considering buying a house in the suburbs to get a garden and my own gym. So I actually understand the feeling of giving up every aspect of your life because it feels like I have given up lot of the enjoyable aspects. I am still going to do my best to socially distance but I will not be as strict as I have been during the spring and most of the summer.

I mean, we're all tired of it. It sucks the big one. We readily admit that we're eating a big shit sandwich for the better good right now. And some of us recognize that it needs to continue for quite a bit longer.

I live in a small condo and work from home. And now workout from home. And always eat at home. And my wife works from home. At the same table as me. It's fucking tiring, man. I miss seeing people in-person. I miss concerts and the theatre. But we persevere on because we feel we have to. We don't just give up because it's hard. We figure out workarounds b/c we're smart muther fuckers around here. I use resistance bands as my home gym. I have a foldable exercise bike that fits in my closet b/c there's no room in this shoebox of an apartment to leave it out somewhere. I have two friends in this city I moved to a year ago. I see them once a month for distancing beers. Imma do it in winter, too, with a parka on if need be, like I did when I was 16. Because there's no such thing as bad weather....only inappropriate clothing.

Be safe out there, folks, for gawd sakes!

My point was to point out that it affects all parts of life mostly in a negative way. Personally, I like working from home and probably will never go back to an employer that wants me in the office 5 days a week. I could not care less if I never set my foot in a store.  There is a socially distanced substitutes for most of the things but mostly a pretty bad substitute.

middo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4368 on: October 31, 2020, 05:34:53 AM »
Australia had one case of local transmission today. 

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4369 on: October 31, 2020, 07:20:23 AM »
I am both happy for Australia and want to step on their foot

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4370 on: October 31, 2020, 07:45:12 AM »
I'm very sorry about your mother. I can't imagine how difficult it must've been to not be able to physically be there for her. But I can't wrap my head around irrecoverable boiling rage over this. Your mother was incredibly vulnerable. These precautions are put into place to protect people like her. Because this virus has already killed a quarter-million people in the states and it will kill tens of thousands more by the end of the year, with older people and the immunocompromised being the most at risk. It wasn't like that was misguided red tape that kept you from her. It was a precaution that likely has near universal agreement.

I appreciate the time and effort put into your post. To focus on just one thing, and having lived through it, I cannot emphatically disagree with this sentiment enough. My mom is a 63 year old, college educated, and extremely independent woman. She is completely capable of evaluating risks and making decisions. Stripping her of her ability to make decisions is barbaric and abhorrent.

The risk of COVID was infinitesimal compared to the mental and emotional stress she had to deal with having cancer surgery basically alone. Both her parents have died; both her siblings have died; she only has her three kids. And we couldn't be there?

And again, just down the road, colleges are conducting tens of thousands of tests per week. Those tests on healthy young adults would be better spent so loved ones can visit their families in hospitals and nursing homes.

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4371 on: October 31, 2020, 07:54:52 AM »
1) how do you protect faculty staff (i am not anti grade school opening) if you dont have enough who are willing to teach in person? Do you fire them all?

2) I obviously do not discount the need for nursing home and hospital testing. MY own FT org demands that I have a NP PCR test weekly. The State requires that LTC facilities test employees be tested weekly (though does not require the minilobotomies) HOWEVER, i do not view college testing as a stunt. Any congregate living setting (dorms, nursing homes, cruise ships) is high risk for spread. Just because the students are not high risk for death doesnt mean they arent likely a key cog in commmunity transmission.

3) yeah the lack of visitation sucks, staff are shining right now though. Many facilities have really come through with ipads and skype calls and alternate activities for their residents. I hope we contain the spread soon so non-humanitarian visitation can resume soon.

4) not useless but yeah over emphasized.

5) better safe than sorry. No offense but this is not at all a problem.

6) non-fitted n95 isnt as useful in a covid ward, but limiting the distance a cough, sneeze, yodeling droplet can fly DOES limit the amount and distance the virus spreads. Is it a magic bullet? absolutely not. But it isnt useless.

7) definitely and I am so so glad. This is the whole point of keeping the curve flat, buying time until we have more knowledge and resources to reduce morbidity and mortality.

8) it is a risk, BUT it isnt a useful intervention for large segments of the population right now. Anecdotally, my dear friend who died of COVID after contracting it at our hospital (his funeral is Sunday) was not obese. Neither was I. I was still sick for weeks. Neither of us was over 60.

1) Being that I work in a City Law Department and have confronted unions over the last six months, yes, absolutely, you fire people for not being willing to do their jobs. Teachers are essential workers. The negative effects of remote schooling are catastrophic, and the longer we pretend otherwise, the more doomed these kids will be.

2) Students hang out with students. I don't remember hanging out with any non-college person when I was in college. Who cares if they get cases -- they are 99.9999997% going to be fine. They should be tested when they go home and that's it.

3) That's a rosy picture you're painting that does not match anywhere close to reality. The isolation we are making our seniors endure is a human rights crime. Read this -- https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/hidden-covid-19-health-crisis-elderly-people-are-dying-isolation-n1244853

5) Using PCR tests that utilize too high of a cycle threshold is not "better safe than sorry." They indicate false positives which causes significant disruption to people's lives and their economic wellbeing. More importantly, they cause a waste of government resources -- we now have people contact tracing someone's contacts when that person is not actually positive for the virus.

6) I think the science will come out the other way on this, i.e., back to where it was before everyone lost their minds.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4372 on: October 31, 2020, 08:06:31 AM »
Students definitely hang out with more than students. YOU maybe didnít, but they do see non-students, including their coworkers and families of origin.


With all due respect, I donít need a news article to know about whatís happening in nursing homes. I work for a large healthcare organization. I have friends and family who provide direct care for people in long term care settings. I have loved ones who are residents in care facilities. I would love to see full visitation again soon, but that is only possible if we get community spread under control.

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4373 on: October 31, 2020, 08:21:53 AM »
Students definitely hang out with more than students. YOU maybe didnít, but they do see non-students, including their coworkers and families of origin.

To me we have two options:

1. Acknowledge that college kids are at extremely low risk and advise students to exercise caution in interacting with the elderly (and advise elderly of the same) -- masks, distance, avoid large groups, socialize outdoors or in well ventilated areas. Allow students to go to the gym, walk to class, etc.

or

2. We can perform 10,000+ tests a week at every major university, prohibit socialization, prohibit in-person classes, ruin these kid's social lives (time of which they will never get back), close the gyms on campus (because they are now being used as testing facilities), etc.

The second option ignores all the health benefits of the first. It silos COVID and places it above every other public health benefit that just walking to class, socializing, learning, etc. provides.

It's a no-brainer if you are looking through the lens of holistic public health instead of obsessing over COVID.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4374 on: October 31, 2020, 08:26:35 AM »
Why are you stuck on mortality rate? Intentionally endangering the vulnerable is not okay.

Yep.  A person who refuses to take recommended Covid precautions should be treated the way you treat a person who grabs their keys after chugging 40oz of malt liquor.  That behaviour is not OK.

I guess I would invert the question of this thread and ask -- how long are we going to have this blaming type of mentality, when we have never done that in the history of human kind?

I've limited my reading, but in my review of STAT News, The Economist, and The Atlantic, the growing scientific consensus is that we may be far off from a vaccine, that said vaccines are not going to be anywhere close to a cure-all, and that we have to learn to live with the virus.

What does that mean long term? Masks and distancing, but for how long?  It just seems incredibly likely to me that COVID is going to be with us indefinitely. And if that's the case, how and when do we pivot?

How long are we planning on making drunk driving illegal?  When will we pivot?  I guess when circumstances change enough that it's no longer a risk to others . . . so maybe when autonomous vehicles replace human control.

For the moment though, we keep them.  Why pivot from a sensible safety precaution?

Dude, come on with the drunk driving comparison. It's not a good faith analogy.

I have worn masks, distanced, have not ate inside a restaurant, set up work from home, limited family visits, altered holiday plans, etc.; but I am not going to do all of this for that much longer.

Agree that the drunk driving analogy is stupid/ a stretch.

Any driving analogy is dumb but if you were to make one I'd say speeding or maybe texting and driving would be more accurate. Something most people do but wont admit and doesnt end in an accident 99% of the time.

--------

Most people I know in real life have pivoted back to doing some friend/family gatherings and stuff. As to when society in general will is hard to say.

I was at a Drs office today and saw a half a dozen workers with thier mask either completley off or below the nose. They all fixed them when they saw me coming but this seems to be pretty common everywhere I go be it grocery; mechanic; home depot, etc.

People wear the mask for public facing interactions but co mingle unmasked with thier direct co-workers quite a bit it would seem.

--------

Everything I've read agrees with you Readysetmillionaire that a Vaccine is probaly still a ways off and far from a cure all.

Hard to say what will happen in the meantime. My guess is maybe people will hole up and social distance a bit over the winter and by Spring/summer people will be so tired of it we'll get back closer to "normal" but who knows.

Dr. Nicholas Christakis, who is a professor at Yale was on Sam Harris earlier this week and he said he thinks it'll be another 1.5 years before the vaccine and/or herd immunity gets to a point where we are good in America and he says it'll be ~2024 before things go back to normal.

All the more reason to move forward now, 4 more years of the last 6 months is unsustainable in my opinion.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4375 on: October 31, 2020, 08:27:54 AM »
I would love to be done with this. But the longer we do thing by halves the longer we have to deal with the fallout. Public institutions are doing all they can but itís up to the average joe and Jane to take this seriously and stop fucking around with precautions because they somehow believe they are at risk and wonít put others at risk.

Laserjet3051

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4376 on: October 31, 2020, 08:35:40 AM »
Re: government "figuring something out"

What do you think a better, more accessible, sustainable and cost effective solution is in comparison with mask wearing and social distancing?

For starters, if I were governor of Ohio, I would:

1) Immediately allow schools and colleges to fully reopen without any restrictions whatsoever. Staff who felt vulnerable could opt out with paid leave for 12 months or, for colleges, remotely lecture from an alternate location.

2) Dedicate all the resources being wasted by our colleges and universities to nursing homes and hospitals. Universities are basically engaged in a PR stunt right now with all the testing, contact tracing, etc.  There have been over 5,000,000 tests, with 150,000 positive tests, on students. There have been a grand total of 15 hospitalizations and 0 deaths. This group is 99.997% not at risk. It's an incredible waste of resources that could be better spent on protecting the more vulnerable populations that need protected.

3) Use these tests and designate family members as essential workers eligible to be tested two times a week so they can visit loved ones in nursing homes.  What we are doing to our elderly is one of the great crimes in modern history. NBC had a tragic story this week quoting nursing home industry professionals from across the country stating that loneliness, despair, and anxiety are greater threats to this population than COVID.

4) Stop the sanitation silliness, which is again a waste of resources. The scientific consensus (from what I've read in WaPo/The Atlantic) is that surface spread is minimal and that the focus should be on ventilation. I would provide grants to stores, restaurants, etc. to improve ventilation.

5) Ensure that PCR tests are not cycling at above 35 cycles (many currently have 40 cycles, which is absurd). Per Fauci, while above 35 is "technically positive, the chances of that being replication competent are extremely low. In other words, you could have a PCR-positive test and yet still not be contagious."

6) Have to be frank -- the science supporting non-fitted cloth masks is bunk, so I would not mandate masks. If we could distribute N-95s to every household, and have them all professionally fitted, that's a different story.

7) Continue the emphasis on treatments, as that is our best hope. Our treatments have improved to such a degree that COVID deaths are starting to fall in line with all cause mortality. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-covid-deaths-age-related-pattern-expert.html

8) Acknowledge that obesity is the second most important correlation for fatal outcomes (behind age). Be honest with citizens and tell those at risk that being obese puts them at far greater risk.

***

In sum, I would target our resources and get on with life. I think holistic public health has suffered greatly and I think we need to pivot to more sane and humanitarian policy.

1) how do you protect faculty staff (i am not anti grade school opening) if you dont have enough who are willing to teach in person? Do you fire them all?

2) I obviously do not discount the need for nursing home and hospital testing. MY own FT org demands that I have a NP PCR test weekly. The State requires that LTC facilities test employees be tested weekly (though does not require the minilobotomies) HOWEVER, i do not view college testing as a stunt. Any congregate living setting (dorms, nursing homes, cruise ships) is high risk for spread. Just because the students are not high risk for death doesnt mean they arent likely a key cog in commmunity transmission.

3) yeah the lack of visitation sucks, staff are shining right now though. Many facilities have really come through with ipads and skype calls and alternate activities for their residents. I hope we contain the spread soon so non-humanitarian visitation can resume soon.

4) not useless but yeah over emphasized.

5) better safe than sorry. No offense but this is not at all a problem.

6) non-fitted n95 isnt as useful in a covid ward, but limiting the distance a cough, sneeze, yodeling droplet can fly DOES limit the amount and distance the virus spreads. Is it a magic bullet? absolutely not. But it isnt useless.

7) definitely and I am so so glad. This is the whole point of keeping the curve flat, buying time until we have more knowledge and resources to reduce morbidity and mortality.

8) it is a risk, BUT it isnt a useful intervention for large segments of the population right now. Anecdotally, my dear friend who died of COVID after contracting it at our hospital (his funeral is Sunday) was not obese. Neither was I. I was still sick for weeks. Neither of us was over 60.

Better safe than sorry? Really? This tells me you have little to no understanding how PCR really works and despite your employment as a health care worker, you are no position to be doling out information on the role of  amplification cycle # for a molecular diagnostic test. I've run RT-PCR and qPCR many hundreds if not thousands of times and I can tell you as cycle # goes beyond a particular threshold, all kinds of spurious things happen and one is often questioning the significance, if not validity, of the specific amplification reaction products obtained.  Assay validation comes in all flavors, buyer beware.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4377 on: October 31, 2020, 08:38:34 AM »
The "work" we do to lower transmission of these viruses is a millionth of the sacrifices that government has asked in response to COVID. Comparing wearing condoms and getting vaccines to people giving up every aspect of their life is not a remotely fair comparison. In fact, it illustrates just how much we have completely lost the forest from the trees when it comes to overall public health.

Do you feel you've given up every aspect of your life?

I know this post was directed at RSM, but I'll throw my two cents in as well.

For many of the reasons they mentioned my life has been turned upside down, sports, concerts, date nights, book club, bunko for my wife, hanging with friends/family, etc. etc. but as much as all that stuff sucks we have put up with it to an extent and have re-introduced some outdoor socialization and what have you.

I love live sports, live music, my kids playing youth sports, seeing friends and all that, I'm extremely extroverted and social. But I can and have put that stuff on hold, what I can't see continuing is the school closures. That has turned our life/household upside down. My wife is a teacher and I have an 8 and 10 year old so 3/4 of my household has had their lives completely up-ended and it is miserable.

Virtual school is awful, no one likes it. My kids cry all the time, they are depressed, as is my wife, people are learning nothing or very little,  it isn't working :(

1) how do you protect faculty staff (i am not anti grade school opening) if you dont have enough who are willing to teach in person? Do you fire them all?

1) Being that I work in a City Law Department and have confronted unions over the last six months, yes, absolutely, you fire people for not being willing to do their jobs. Teachers are essential workers. The negative effects of remote schooling are catastrophic, and the longer we pretend otherwise, the more doomed these kids will be.

+1 big time

If they don't want to do the job; find someone who will. We have to get kids back in school.

Gov Newsom the latest of the wealthy to send his kid back to school while most of his state is closed down, hello Achievement Gap :/

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/10/30/newsom-sends-his-children-back-to-school-classrooms-in-california-1332811

We live in a great public school district where the teachers are well paid and respected, even the wealthy use the public schools, etc. but that relationship is deteriorating by the minute. Most everyone I know is looking into private schools for the Spring semester. Where does that leave teachers when they don't have enough students; or people start voting with their wallets and their feet?

If you don't need the fancy public school district move across the county line and save a couple hundred K on housing cost and property taxes.

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4378 on: October 31, 2020, 08:49:52 AM »
Closing elementary schools should never have even been considered. The harm that has been done to ELL/disadvantaged/special needs kids is incalculable. We have had zero (yes, zero) cases of transmission at school this year.

If there's an essential service in our society, primary education has got to be near the top of the list. I'm proud that our district decided to keep school functioning in person this year and I'm happy to contribute (I've essentially shut down my business to take care of our 1 year old so that my wife can substitute for at-risk teachers - I'd guess it's cost us upwards of $20k so far this school year).

-W

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4379 on: October 31, 2020, 08:50:03 AM »
Students definitely hang out with more than students. YOU maybe didnít, but they do see non-students, including their coworkers and families of origin.

To me we have two options:

1. Acknowledge that college kids are at extremely low risk and advise students to exercise caution in interacting with the elderly (and advise elderly of the same) -- masks, distance, avoid large groups, socialize outdoors or in well ventilated areas. Allow students to go to the gym, walk to class, etc.

or

2. We can perform 10,000+ tests a week at every major university, prohibit socialization, prohibit in-person classes, ruin these kid's social lives (time of which they will never get back), close the gyms on campus (because they are now being used as testing facilities), etc.

The second option ignores all the health benefits of the first. It silos COVID and places it above every other public health benefit that just walking to class, socializing, learning, etc. provides.

It's a no-brainer if you are looking through the lens of holistic public health instead of obsessing over COVID.
Sorry, college kids touch every aspect of our daily lives, they work in restaurants, child care, elder care, grocery stores and many more places where they interact with people of all risk levels.

Even in a scientific setting where my wife works a good portion of the staff are grad students that spend time between school and work.

I am all for kids and whom ever else wants to get it doing so if we could stop it from spreading outwards affecting the entire country.

Re distance learning wreaking havoc on kids - many thrive and some struggle but what is not working is forcing schools in our area to be in person and shutting it down and opening it over and over. The transition from in person to distance learning back and forth is distributive and difficult on the students. A better option would be a hybrid where parents can decide between in person and distance learning based on their risk level and learning style and just roll with it for the year.


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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4380 on: October 31, 2020, 09:14:41 AM »
Closing elementary schools should never have even been considered. The harm that has been done to ELL/disadvantaged/special needs kids is incalculable. We have had zero (yes, zero) cases of transmission at school this year.

If there's an essential service in our society, primary education has got to be near the top of the list. I'm proud that our district decided to keep school functioning in person this year and I'm happy to contribute (I've essentially shut down my business to take care of our 1 year old so that my wife can substitute for at-risk teachers - I'd guess it's cost us upwards of $20k so far this school year).

-W
Schools are socialist government, don't you know?  Bars are much more important because they are private enterprise and mah freedom./s

Closing the schools while opening the bars is the natural result of having a far right Republican government.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4381 on: October 31, 2020, 09:15:38 AM »
Closing elementary schools should never have even been considered. The harm that has been done to ELL/disadvantaged/special needs kids is incalculable. We have had zero (yes, zero) cases of transmission at school this year.

If there's an essential service in our society, primary education has got to be near the top of the list. I'm proud that our district decided to keep school functioning in person this year and I'm happy to contribute (I've essentially shut down my business to take care of our 1 year old so that my wife can substitute for at-risk teachers - I'd guess it's cost us upwards of $20k so far this school year).

-W

Agree! My construction job was deemed essential....I build decks, screen porches, luxury kitchens/baths, etc. for rich people......not talking basic human shelter here.

My 65 year old diabetic, overweight,  cardiovascular disease, 3 time heart attack survivor father has been working 5-6 days a week this entire time with me. In and out of Home Depots, gassing up the work trucks, multiple peoples homes, sharing port a johns with dozens of workers, etc.

He'd never even hear us telling him to stay home for a few weeks back in March/April. It sickens me the unions and a lot of the teachers dont want to do thier jobs.

I fear it will have long term affects on the public opinion of our educators :(

waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4382 on: October 31, 2020, 09:22:46 AM »
Schools are socialist government, don't you know?  Bars are much more important because they are private enterprise and mah freedom./s

Closing the schools while opening the bars is the natural result of having a far right Republican government.

Actually, interestingly enough here it is the farthest left/liberal folks who want the schools closed. There is plenty of hypocrisy to go around through the entire political spectrum on this one. We have the "wearing a mask is socialist totalitarianism" morons, and we have the "close everything no matter what the consequences, throwing thousands of at risk kids into a lifetime of poverty is worth it to save one 90 year old" idiots. Yay 'Merica!

At our schools, they are absolute sticklers for masks, hygiene, and distancing. Vulnerable people stay away. And they are in person and making sure the kids who need help are getting it. Not hard if you're not blinded by one form or another of partisan stupidity.

-W

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4383 on: October 31, 2020, 09:25:43 AM »
Schools are socialist government, don't you know?  Bars are much more important because they are private enterprise and mah freedom./s

Closing the schools while opening the bars is the natural result of having a far right Republican government.

Actually, interestingly enough here it is the farthest left/liberal folks who want the schools closed. There is plenty of hypocrisy to go around through the entire political spectrum on this one. We have the "wearing a mask is socialist totalitarianism" morons, and we have the "close everything no matter what the consequences, throwing thousands of at risk kids into a lifetime of poverty is worth it to save one 90 year old" idiots. Yay 'Merica!

At our schools, they are absolute sticklers for masks, hygiene, and distancing. Vulnerable people stay away. And they are in person and making sure the kids who need help are getting it. Not hard if you're not blinded by one form or another of partisan stupidity.

-W

Yep I'm in a super left/liberal county that has no interest in getting back to in person learning despite our republican governor's urging.

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4384 on: October 31, 2020, 09:29:18 AM »
Closing elementary schools should never have even been considered. The harm that has been done to ELL/disadvantaged/special needs kids is incalculable. We have had zero (yes, zero) cases of transmission at school this year.

If there's an essential service in our society, primary education has got to be near the top of the list. I'm proud that our district decided to keep school functioning in person this year and I'm happy to contribute (I've essentially shut down my business to take care of our 1 year old so that my wife can substitute for at-risk teachers - I'd guess it's cost us upwards of $20k so far this school year).

-W
That is interesting, wonder what they are doing differently? Most of the schools around here have had outbreaks and have had to close some have reopened some have stayed shut.

My nephews just finished their quarantine because they were exposed at school.

My nieceís teacher tested positive a few weeks after school reopened and they were all sent home for a couple of weeks.

CU Boulder has been a train wreck and is probably the source of the big resurgence of cases in the area.


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waltworks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4385 on: October 31, 2020, 09:32:31 AM »
Yep I'm in a super left/liberal county that has no interest in getting back to in person learning despite our republican governor's urging.

I guess I should clarify - we have people protesting their kids having to wear masks at school and picketing the home of the state epidemiologist (!!) We also have people saying schools should all be closed along with basically everything else. Those groups don't perfectly overlap with conservative/liberal but it's pretty close, with a healthy dose of antivax/crazy 10-hours-a-day-on-FB moms thrown in on both sides.

-W

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4386 on: October 31, 2020, 09:34:33 AM »
That is interesting, wonder what they are doing differently? Most of the schools around here have had outbreaks and have had to close some have reopened some have stayed shut.

My nephews just finished their quarantine because they were exposed at school.

My nieceís teacher tested positive a few weeks after school reopened and they were all sent home for a couple of weeks.

CU Boulder has been a train wreck and is probably the source of the big resurgence of cases in the area.


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To clarify: no kids have gotten infected at school. We have had kids test positive, teachers test positive, etc. None of those cases happened on school grounds, because the teachers are being very very strict about masks/no physical contact between classes/etc.

I'm guessing all the CU boulder cases happened on the Hill at parties, right? That would have happened anyway, closing down classes won't help. And regardless, I'm talking specifically about elementary/primary schools. Higher ed is a completely different thing with much lower consequences for the kids (if you're attending CU Boulder, you're doing really well in life already). But since there's money to be lost, we're keeping colleges open and closing elementary schools. Genius.

-W
« Last Edit: October 31, 2020, 09:50:59 AM by waltworks »

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4387 on: October 31, 2020, 09:52:39 AM »
That is interesting, wonder what they are doing differently? Most of the schools around here have had outbreaks and have had to close some have reopened some have stayed shut.

My nephews just finished their quarantine because they were exposed at school.

My nieceís teacher tested positive a few weeks after school reopened and they were all sent home for a couple of weeks.

CU Boulder has been a train wreck and is probably the source of the big resurgence of cases in the area.


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To clarify: no kids have gotten infected at school. We have had kids test positive, teachers test positive, etc. None of those cases happened on school grounds, because the teachers are being very very strict about masks/no physical contact between classes/etc.

I'm guessing all the CU boulder cases happened on the Hill at parties, right? That would have happened anyway, closing down classes won't help.

-W
College students being college students, I believe they went virtual for the most part now right after the date you could drop and get a refund.


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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4388 on: October 31, 2020, 12:44:00 PM »
Re: government "figuring something out"

What do you think a better, more accessible, sustainable and cost effective solution is in comparison with mask wearing and social distancing?

For starters, if I were governor of Ohio, I would:

1) Immediately allow schools and colleges to fully reopen without any restrictions whatsoever. Staff who felt vulnerable could opt out with paid leave for 12 months or, for colleges, remotely lecture from an alternate location.

2) Dedicate all the resources being wasted by our colleges and universities to nursing homes and hospitals. Universities are basically engaged in a PR stunt right now with all the testing, contact tracing, etc.  There have been over 5,000,000 tests, with 150,000 positive tests, on students. There have been a grand total of 15 hospitalizations and 0 deaths. This group is 99.997% not at risk. It's an incredible waste of resources that could be better spent on protecting the more vulnerable populations that need protected.

3) Use these tests and designate family members as essential workers eligible to be tested two times a week so they can visit loved ones in nursing homes.  What we are doing to our elderly is one of the great crimes in modern history. NBC had a tragic story this week quoting nursing home industry professionals from across the country stating that loneliness, despair, and anxiety are greater threats to this population than COVID.

4) Stop the sanitation silliness, which is again a waste of resources. The scientific consensus (from what I've read in WaPo/The Atlantic) is that surface spread is minimal and that the focus should be on ventilation. I would provide grants to stores, restaurants, etc. to improve ventilation.

5) Ensure that PCR tests are not cycling at above 35 cycles (many currently have 40 cycles, which is absurd). Per Fauci, while above 35 is "technically positive, the chances of that being replication competent are extremely low. In other words, you could have a PCR-positive test and yet still not be contagious."

6) Have to be frank -- the science supporting non-fitted cloth masks is bunk, so I would not mandate masks. If we could distribute N-95s to every household, and have them all professionally fitted, that's a different story.

7) Continue the emphasis on treatments, as that is our best hope. Our treatments have improved to such a degree that COVID deaths are starting to fall in line with all cause mortality. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-covid-deaths-age-related-pattern-expert.html

8) Acknowledge that obesity is the second most important correlation for fatal outcomes (behind age). Be honest with citizens and tell those at risk that being obese puts them at far greater risk.

***

In sum, I would target our resources and get on with life. I think holistic public health has suffered greatly and I think we need to pivot to more sane and humanitarian policy.

1) how do you protect faculty staff (i am not anti grade school opening) if you dont have enough who are willing to teach in person? Do you fire them all?

2) I obviously do not discount the need for nursing home and hospital testing. MY own FT org demands that I have a NP PCR test weekly. The State requires that LTC facilities test employees be tested weekly (though does not require the minilobotomies) HOWEVER, i do not view college testing as a stunt. Any congregate living setting (dorms, nursing homes, cruise ships) is high risk for spread. Just because the students are not high risk for death doesnt mean they arent likely a key cog in commmunity transmission.

3) yeah the lack of visitation sucks, staff are shining right now though. Many facilities have really come through with ipads and skype calls and alternate activities for their residents. I hope we contain the spread soon so non-humanitarian visitation can resume soon.

4) not useless but yeah over emphasized.

5) better safe than sorry. No offense but this is not at all a problem.

6) non-fitted n95 isnt as useful in a covid ward, but limiting the distance a cough, sneeze, yodeling droplet can fly DOES limit the amount and distance the virus spreads. Is it a magic bullet? absolutely not. But it isnt useless.

7) definitely and I am so so glad. This is the whole point of keeping the curve flat, buying time until we have more knowledge and resources to reduce morbidity and mortality.

8) it is a risk, BUT it isnt a useful intervention for large segments of the population right now. Anecdotally, my dear friend who died of COVID after contracting it at our hospital (his funeral is Sunday) was not obese. Neither was I. I was still sick for weeks. Neither of us was over 60.

Better safe than sorry? Really? This tells me you have little to no understanding how PCR really works and despite your employment as a health care worker, you are no position to be doling out information on the role of  amplification cycle # for a molecular diagnostic test. I've run RT-PCR and qPCR many hundreds if not thousands of times and I can tell you as cycle # goes beyond a particular threshold, all kinds of spurious things happen and one is often questioning the significance, if not validity, of the specific amplification reaction products obtained.  Assay validation comes in all flavors, buyer beware.

^^^This is correct. As much as I am in favor of widespread testing, full masking, and indoor crowd limits, we need to be smart. Running qPCR for so long that random amplicons start popping up is neither helpful nor cost-effective.

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4389 on: November 01, 2020, 06:19:51 AM »
Great article on how we have slowly dripped into totalitarianism, with one of the biggest problems being that we view the natural occurrence of death as being a responsibility of government --

https://twitter.com/MTSundayExpress/status/1322857937359044608/photo/1

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4390 on: November 01, 2020, 06:52:45 AM »
This is an excellent article about masks: https://www.meehanmd.com/blog/2020-10-10-an-evidence-based-scientific-analysis-of-why-masks-are-ineffective-unnecessary-and-harmful/

If anyone smarter than I am wants to tell me why it's wrong, I'm open to the discourse. But it seems to me that the scientific evidence over the last 40 years is crystal clear that they do not work on a community wide basis.

Anecdotally, Ohio has had a mask mandate since June 23. We are now seeing our surge despite several polls showing 90% compliance in public. My personal observation is that I maybe see 1-2 people in any given store or setting without masks.

The same is going on in several other states and European countries. Austria, Germany, France, Spain have had mask mandates for many months with very high compliance, and they are all now seeing surges.

It's all quite a sad farce that this is looking at some fringe opinion instead of the reality. We can acknowledge it and try to make better policy or continue on this idiotic path.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4391 on: November 01, 2020, 07:11:40 AM »
But you haven't started any new wars over it yet!  #silverlining

"Yet" being the operative word of course. We're a creative bunch over here in the States.

I can't really imagine any nation (even the rogue ones) gathering up their troops in close quarters to launch a war. Its probably the only time in modern history that the risk has been this low.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4392 on: November 01, 2020, 08:24:00 AM »
This is an excellent article about masks: https://www.meehanmd.com/blog/2020-10-10-an-evidence-based-scientific-analysis-of-why-masks-are-ineffective-unnecessary-and-harmful/

If anyone smarter than I am wants to tell me why it's wrong, I'm open to the discourse. But it seems to me that the scientific evidence over the last 40 years is crystal clear that they do not work on a community wide basis.

Anecdotally, Ohio has had a mask mandate since June 23. We are now seeing our surge despite several polls showing 90% compliance in public. My personal observation is that I maybe see 1-2 people in any given store or setting without masks.

The same is going on in several other states and European countries. Austria, Germany, France, Spain have had mask mandates for many months with very high compliance, and they are all now seeing surges.

It's all quite a sad farce that this is looking at some fringe opinion instead of the reality. We can acknowledge it and try to make better policy or continue on this idiotic path.

The obvious question then is "how to do you think the virus is spreading?"     It doesn't seem to spread by fomites.   If it's not spreading by exhalations, then what's the mechanism?     If it is spreading by respiratory droplets and aerosol, then why don't masks work?

Statistical evidence is an important part of science, but physics counts too!

In general, we should take the advice of Anthony Fauci over an anonymous ophthalmologist with a website.

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4393 on: November 01, 2020, 08:47:24 AM »
The obvious question then is "how to do you think the virus is spreading?"     It doesn't seem to spread by fomites.   If it's not spreading by exhalations, then what's the mechanism?     If it is spreading by respiratory droplets and aerosol, then why don't masks work?

Statistical evidence is an important part of science, but physics counts too!

In general, we should take the advice of Anthony Fauci over an anonymous ophthalmologist with a website.

Non-fitted masks, especially cloth masks, do not work because they are not equipped or designed to stop aerosol particles. This is a fact.

And your last point is an appeal to authority that does not counter the actual data.

***

On a broader note, and I have said this many times -- if government wants me to wear a mask, the burden of proof is on the government to show me that they work, not on me to show that they do not work.

Masks are often compared to seatbelts -- but the data is overwhelmingly clear that seatbelts save lives. Same goes for drunk driving, secondhand smoke, helmets, etc. The evidence on these is overwhelmingly clear and society has thus accepted them as the norm.

The evidence on masks is simply not there, as that article cites. The science was *unequivocal* prior to COVID that masks do not work to stop the spread of influenza-like viruses. The evidence was overwhelming and well accepted in the scientific community, which is why WHO, CDC, Surgeon General -- all of them -- said masks don't work.

The evidence we are seeing with states and countries with mask mandates piles up by the day. States and countries with mask mandates *for months* are now seeing surges.

Masks are an emotional and political appeal, a symbol that "we are all in this." But they are not a reasonable policy solution based on any meaningful data. Government thus fails its burden of proof, and I therefore do not believe they are a "reasonable accommodation."

It is an absolute abomination that this scientific reality is being condescended as blasphemous.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4394 on: November 01, 2020, 09:18:16 AM »
The obvious question then is "how to do you think the virus is spreading?"     It doesn't seem to spread by fomites.   If it's not spreading by exhalations, then what's the mechanism?     If it is spreading by respiratory droplets and aerosol, then why don't masks work?

Statistical evidence is an important part of science, but physics counts too!

In general, we should take the advice of Anthony Fauci over an anonymous ophthalmologist with a website.

Non-fitted masks, especially cloth masks, do not work because they are not equipped or designed to stop aerosol particles. This is a fact.

And your last point is an appeal to authority that does not counter the actual data.

***

On a broader note, and I have said this many times -- if government wants me to wear a mask, the burden of proof is on the government to show me that they work, not on me to show that they do not work.

Masks are often compared to seatbelts -- but the data is overwhelmingly clear that seatbelts save lives. Same goes for drunk driving, secondhand smoke, helmets, etc. The evidence on these is overwhelmingly clear and society has thus accepted them as the norm.

The evidence on masks is simply not there, as that article cites. The science was *unequivocal* prior to COVID that masks do not work to stop the spread of influenza-like viruses. The evidence was overwhelming and well accepted in the scientific community, which is why WHO, CDC, Surgeon General -- all of them -- said masks don't work.

The evidence we are seeing with states and countries with mask mandates piles up by the day. States and countries with mask mandates *for months* are now seeing surges.

Masks are an emotional and political appeal, a symbol that "we are all in this." But they are not a reasonable policy solution based on any meaningful data. Government thus fails its burden of proof, and I therefore do not believe they are a "reasonable accommodation."

It is an absolute abomination that this scientific reality is being condescended as blasphemous.

Meehan is an anti-vaxxer, pro-QAnon and his twitter profile is more partisan than medical.  I don't think it's unfair to assume that the Mayo Clinic, UCSF, MIT and a host of other non-partisan instutitions are less motivated to dig up possibly spurious information because of political motivations.  His motivations are the Platonic ideal of suspect.  Anyone that believes in QAnon is someone I probably wouldn't believe if they told me the sky was blue, just to be safe.

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4395 on: November 01, 2020, 09:24:37 AM »
Meehan is an anti-vaxxer, pro-QAnon and his twitter profile is more partisan than medical.  I don't think it's unfair to assume that the Mayo Clinic, UCSF, MIT and a host of other non-partisan instutitions are less motivated to dig up possibly spurious information because of political motivations.  His motivations are the Platonic ideal of suspect.  Anyone that believes in QAnon is someone I probably wouldn't believe if they told me the sky was blue, just to be safe.

I saw his other articles and thus clicked more than half of the studies he cited to view the direct sources; those supported his overall conclusion. I agree he is a clown on a variety of other issues, but that does not mean he is wrong about masks.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4396 on: November 01, 2020, 09:37:26 AM »
Meehan is an anti-vaxxer, pro-QAnon and his twitter profile is more partisan than medical.  I don't think it's unfair to assume that the Mayo Clinic, UCSF, MIT and a host of other non-partisan instutitions are less motivated to dig up possibly spurious information because of political motivations.  His motivations are the Platonic ideal of suspect.  Anyone that believes in QAnon is someone I probably wouldn't believe if they told me the sky was blue, just to be safe.

I saw his other articles and thus clicked more than half of the studies he cited to view the direct sources; those supported his overall conclusion. I agree he is a clown on a variety of other issues, but that does not mean he is wrong about masks.

Did he list the studies about how masks work?

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4397 on: November 01, 2020, 09:58:37 AM »
Meehan is an anti-vaxxer, pro-QAnon and his twitter profile is more partisan than medical.  I don't think it's unfair to assume that the Mayo Clinic, UCSF, MIT and a host of other non-partisan instutitions are less motivated to dig up possibly spurious information because of political motivations.  His motivations are the Platonic ideal of suspect.  Anyone that believes in QAnon is someone I probably wouldn't believe if they told me the sky was blue, just to be safe.

I saw his other articles and thus clicked more than half of the studies he cited to view the direct sources; those supported his overall conclusion. I agree he is a clown on a variety of other issues, but that does not mean he is wrong about masks.

It's not difficult to take good data and good studies and misuse them to make a plausible argument, especially if you know what you're doing. Unless you yourself can analyze the studies they've cited on a professional level and have taken the time to do so, you're putting some amount of faith in the author. If they have concluded vaccines are bad and completely unfounded conspiracy theories are true, why would you put any amount of trust in them.

I recommend an analysis from a peer-reviewed scientific journal like this:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02801-8

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4398 on: November 01, 2020, 11:18:17 AM »
Meehan is an anti-vaxxer, pro-QAnon and his twitter profile is more partisan than medical.  I don't think it's unfair to assume that the Mayo Clinic, UCSF, MIT and a host of other non-partisan instutitions are less motivated to dig up possibly spurious information because of political motivations.  His motivations are the Platonic ideal of suspect.  Anyone that believes in QAnon is someone I probably wouldn't believe if they told me the sky was blue, just to be safe.

I saw his other articles and thus clicked more than half of the studies he cited to view the direct sources; those supported his overall conclusion. I agree he is a clown on a variety of other issues, but that does not mean he is wrong about masks.

RSM, you need to understand that the vast majority of academic papers and studies fall by the wayside.   Only a small fraction turn into accepted science.

There are so many papers and studies about covid-19 right now that you can use them to build an argument for just about any point of view.

The appeal to Dr Fauci is not a blind appeal to authority, but rather listening to an expert who collaborates with other experts through the process of sorting out fact from fantasy.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4399 on: November 01, 2020, 11:52:22 AM »
Meehan is an anti-vaxxer, pro-QAnon and his twitter profile is more partisan than medical.  I don't think it's unfair to assume that the Mayo Clinic, UCSF, MIT and a host of other non-partisan instutitions are less motivated to dig up possibly spurious information because of political motivations.  His motivations are the Platonic ideal of suspect.  Anyone that believes in QAnon is someone I probably wouldn't believe if they told me the sky was blue, just to be safe.

I saw his other articles and thus clicked more than half of the studies he cited to view the direct sources; those supported his overall conclusion. I agree he is a clown on a variety of other issues, but that does not mean he is wrong about masks.

RSM, you need to understand that the vast majority of academic papers and studies fall by the wayside.   Only a small fraction turn into accepted science.

There are so many papers and studies about covid-19 right now that you can use them to build an argument for just about any point of view.

The appeal to Dr Fauci is not a blind appeal to authority, but rather listening to an expert who collaborates with other experts through the process of sorting out fact from fantasy.

The appeal to authority is a logical fallacy that occurs when you are asking people to trust someone's opinion who is not an expert on the topic under discussion.  Fauci is trained and informed to be an expert on the corovavirus.  Appeal to authority therefore doesn't apply in his case.  If someone was pointing to a person who is respected in some fields but not epidemiology like say . . . the pope, or Stephen Hawkings . . . that would fit the appeal to authority fallacy.  As mentioned, Fauci is an authority on this because he is one of the best informed and well trained people regarding this particular problem.  His opinion should matter and be counted.  (Otherwise appeal to authority would be used in debate as a weapon to silence experts.)