Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 356805 times)

sui generis

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4300 on: October 29, 2020, 02:03:27 PM »
...

The family has every right to be pissed off at the person who most likely caused the death.

I missed the part in that story where the family member most likely caused the death. Did the adult child test positive at some point in this process?

What does a positive test have to do with anything?

The person mentioned wasn't willing to wear a mask or do basic safety precautions - I assumed that the odds of them bothering to get a test immediately before visiting were pretty low, a great many people can't get a timely test even if they want one, because of the way this virus grows a negative test result doesn't mean that you won't test positive the next day (or the day after that), most people who are asymptomatic do not get tests (I'm also assuming that as big a dick as this guy was, even he wouldn't have visited a vulnerable relative with symptoms).

So what you're saying is that his actions could have caused a death, not that they most likely caused a death.

Word choice is very important when assigning blame for death. Most likely implies a greater than 50% chance, which seems disingenuous in this case.

No, I don't agree at all.

He was behaving like a person who has a couple dozen shots of whiskey and then goes for a joyride.  We know that a close family member was out walking and run over while he was joyriding around.  We don't know for sure it was him because his car has mysteriously disappeared.  We only know that his utter lack of concern for the life of other people put them all at risk.  Is there an off chance that another driver killed the family member?  Sure.  But it's less likely.

The family has every right to be pissed off at the person who's reckless disregard for the safety of others make it more likely that he caused the death than people in the family who took the precautions they were supposed to.  His actions make him the most likely person to have transmitted the disease until further evidence is brought forth.

If you think that's unfair . . . yeah.  Probably is.  It's also unfair to casually put other's lives at risk.

yeah agree.  We aren't proving a case in court here.  We're not trying to find the preponderance of the evidence or proving any guilt beyond a shadow of a doubt.  This is family, and that kind of casual and inconsiderate behavior does kill people and is totally legit to be treated as such by family and friends whether or not it killed this person in this particular instance.

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4301 on: October 29, 2020, 07:42:11 PM »
I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.
I think you should consider seriously what you are saying.
I did.

Everybody who's ever had the flu should also be jailed for murder.

Apart from the fact you are comparing apples to pineapples, someone getting a flu shot is taking active measures to NOT get the flu (and there are no asymptomatic flu spreaders).  Someone not wearing a mask (and how well is that person managing social distancing?) is taking steps to be a spreader, since there are asymptomatic spreaders.

Someone lying about exposure and causing a death is morally guilty of at least causing death by negligence.

I agree that Covid-19 is not the same as the flu but where did you get the idea that there are "no asymptomatic flu spreaders"?
At least one study that I found begs to differ:
https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/three-quarters-of-people-with-flu-have-no-symptoms/

Pre-covid era, the culture at my work was that you came in to the office unless if you were completely incapacitated.  Someone with mild symptoms of the flu could have easily spread it around the whole office.  It seems likely that if you traced the chain of infection you could eventually link a death to someone who came in to the office when they were sick.  Are all of those people who came in to work with undiagnosed mild symptoms of an illness morally guilty of causing death(s) by negligence?  If they were not guilty back then, why is covid different now?

Learn something new every day.  Early in the pandemic there were discussions of how Covid-19 was more dangerous because there were people who never showed symptoms but still shed the virus, and that people who did get sick were shedding virus before they showed symptoms, and this was new.  My previous understanding was that people with the flu didn't shed until they showed symptoms (of course early flu symptoms and mild flu symptoms can be easily not noticed).

I've always thought this "work until you are really sick" attitude was stupid.  Colds are ubiquitous, not really much use to stay home if you feel OK and are controlling symptoms.   If you are not coughing and sneezing and others are doing basic personal hygiene, transmission rate should be low.  But the flu?  Stay home.  And go back a step, improve your odds of not catching it in the first place, get your flu vaccination.  Same for Covid, isolate as much as possible, wear a mask, keep your distance, wash your hands.

Other really basic precaution - I am seeing more and more about seriously ill people being really deficient in Vitamin D.  I have been taking extra D (and getting  adequate but not excessive sun exposure) because X-rays a few years ago showed I have mild osteopenia.  How is everyone else doing?  Hmm, once we are thorough this pandemic I should get new x-rays done to see if my bone density has improved.

I agree with all of the above, but want to point out that the link between vitamin D and illnesses (other than bone disorders) is more correlative than causative. Several studies failed to show a benefit to vitamin D supplementation in various chronic illnesses. At any rate it doesnít hurt (hard to get toxic doses) and may help at the doses available in over the counter vitamins. Just donít OD on them.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4302 on: October 29, 2020, 08:40:20 PM »
I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.
I think you should consider seriously what you are saying.
I did.

Everybody who's ever had the flu should also be jailed for murder.

Apart from the fact you are comparing apples to pineapples, someone getting a flu shot is taking active measures to NOT get the flu (and there are no asymptomatic flu spreaders).  Someone not wearing a mask (and how well is that person managing social distancing?) is taking steps to be a spreader, since there are asymptomatic spreaders.

Someone lying about exposure and causing a death is morally guilty of at least causing death by negligence.

I agree that Covid-19 is not the same as the flu but where did you get the idea that there are "no asymptomatic flu spreaders"?
At least one study that I found begs to differ:
https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/three-quarters-of-people-with-flu-have-no-symptoms/

Pre-covid era, the culture at my work was that you came in to the office unless if you were completely incapacitated.  Someone with mild symptoms of the flu could have easily spread it around the whole office.  It seems likely that if you traced the chain of infection you could eventually link a death to someone who came in to the office when they were sick.  Are all of those people who came in to work with undiagnosed mild symptoms of an illness morally guilty of causing death(s) by negligence?  If they were not guilty back then, why is covid different now?

Learn something new every day.  Early in the pandemic there were discussions of how Covid-19 was more dangerous because there were people who never showed symptoms but still shed the virus, and that people who did get sick were shedding virus before they showed symptoms, and this was new.  My previous understanding was that people with the flu didn't shed until they showed symptoms (of course early flu symptoms and mild flu symptoms can be easily not noticed).

I've always thought this "work until you are really sick" attitude was stupid.  Colds are ubiquitous, not really much use to stay home if you feel OK and are controlling symptoms.   If you are not coughing and sneezing and others are doing basic personal hygiene, transmission rate should be low.  But the flu?  Stay home.  And go back a step, improve your odds of not catching it in the first place, get your flu vaccination.  Same for Covid, isolate as much as possible, wear a mask, keep your distance, wash your hands.

Other really basic precaution - I am seeing more and more about seriously ill people being really deficient in Vitamin D.  I have been taking extra D (and getting  adequate but not excessive sun exposure) because X-rays a few years ago showed I have mild osteopenia.  How is everyone else doing?  Hmm, once we are thorough this pandemic I should get new x-rays done to see if my bone density has improved.

I agree with all of the above, but want to point out that the link between vitamin D and illnesses (other than bone disorders) is more correlative than causative. Several studies failed to show a benefit to vitamin D supplementation in various chronic illnesses. At any rate it doesnít hurt (hard to get toxic doses) and may help at the doses available in over the counter vitamins. Just donít OD on them.

From the little I've been able to find, Vitamin D is involved in regulating cytokinin cascade ("cytokine storm") and also that more specific cascade (sorry I've forgotten the term)  involved in some of the Covid damage.  So it won't keep you from getting sick but it may help with not getting severe damage.

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4303 on: October 29, 2020, 09:52:08 PM »
Thatís right it may help a bit with several cytokines pathways. They still havenít figured out why the in vitro and animal models donít translate to chronic inflammatory conditions, but in the short term setting it was thought it may help. Unfortunately a large randomized trial of high dose vitamin D was done in critically ill patients published last year and found no benefit, which was somewhat surprising and disappointing. Several studies have looked at it for prevention of asthma and for TB, they were all negative. I did find a small trial in Italy for covid patients (50 patients) that suggests a benefit in preventing death, but it was too small and not well randomized. I was disappointed to find that the most commonly cited study suggesting a relationship between vitamin D levels and covid-19 positivity was from my training institution, but was not well done as it failed to account for several socioeconomic factors that correlate with vitamin deficiency in the population and with covid-19, and there were some methodology flaws. Itís an interesting hypothesis but again correlation is not causation.

Tldr: itís a good idea to take vitamin D supplements for bone disorders, but evidence for covid-19 is very weak.

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4304 on: October 30, 2020, 05:44:18 AM »
To answer the thread's orginial question, based on evidence from Europe the answer appears to be "around 6 months".

The overall explanation given is that people are more fed up / don't comply / whatever, not that there has been som genetic variation causing a much faster spread. If the latter was the explnation I assume it would have been all over the news but I havn't really seen anything to suggest that.

Up here in the high north of Europa cases have also "finally" started to rise. The numbers are still low but the rate of increase is causing alarm. 

bigblock440

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4305 on: October 30, 2020, 06:15:03 AM »
I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.
I think you should consider seriously what you are saying.
I did.

Everybody who's ever had the flu should also be jailed for murder.

Hmm.  Claims that coronavirus is the same as the flu . . . I thought we were past this.

Hmm.  Claims that influenza doesn't kill people....I thought we were.

Nobody made the claim that the influenza doesn't kill people.

You made a direct comparison between the flu and coronavirus.  Coronavirus is significantly more dangerous than the flu (greater transmissibility, more deaths, unknown long term effects).  They're not comparable.

So what mortality rate do we start charging people with murder?

I'd encourage you to re-read the posts above.  You seem to be railing against something that wasn't said.

Nobody said that anyone should be charged with murder:

"I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is. "

Sui Generis said that he(she?) hopes that a person who doesn't take sensible precautions around those who are at high risk is treated like a murderer.  Seems pretty reasonable to me.  The family has every right to be pissed off at the person who most likely caused the death.

Ok, so what mortality rate do we start "treating people like murderers"?  I apologize for interpreting "treating people like murderers" as arresting them, as that's how we treat murderers here.  Or throw them in the swamp, some families do that.  So what fatality rate do we start treating people like murderers?
« Last Edit: October 30, 2020, 06:27:31 AM by bigblock440 »

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4306 on: October 30, 2020, 06:31:50 AM »
Why are you stuck on mortality rate? Intentionally endangering the vulnerable is not okay.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4307 on: October 30, 2020, 06:48:40 AM »
Why are you stuck on mortality rate? Intentionally endangering the vulnerable is not okay.

Yep.  A person who refuses to take recommended Covid precautions should be treated the way you treat a person who grabs their keys after chugging 40oz of malt liquor.  That behaviour is not OK.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4308 on: October 30, 2020, 07:08:58 AM »
Thatís right it may help a bit with several cytokines pathways. They still havenít figured out why the in vitro and animal models donít translate to chronic inflammatory conditions, but in the short term setting it was thought it may help. Unfortunately a large randomized trial of high dose vitamin D was done in critically ill patients published last year and found no benefit, which was somewhat surprising and disappointing. Several studies have looked at it for prevention of asthma and for TB, they were all negative. I did find a small trial in Italy for covid patients (50 patients) that suggests a benefit in preventing death, but it was too small and not well randomized. I was disappointed to find that the most commonly cited study suggesting a relationship between vitamin D levels and covid-19 positivity was from my training institution, but was not well done as it failed to account for several socioeconomic factors that correlate with vitamin deficiency in the population and with covid-19, and there were some methodology flaws. Itís an interesting hypothesis but again correlation is not causation.

Tldr: itís a good idea to take vitamin D supplements for bone disorders, but evidence for covid-19 is very weak.

Intersting; wonder if this will make its way to news outlets....

Vitanin D has/had been touted as some wonder defense and selling out and everything and turns out not much was known/proven.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4309 on: October 30, 2020, 07:13:36 AM »
Thatís right it may help a bit with several cytokines pathways. They still havenít figured out why the in vitro and animal models donít translate to chronic inflammatory conditions, but in the short term setting it was thought it may help. Unfortunately a large randomized trial of high dose vitamin D was done in critically ill patients published last year and found no benefit, which was somewhat surprising and disappointing. Several studies have looked at it for prevention of asthma and for TB, they were all negative. I did find a small trial in Italy for covid patients (50 patients) that suggests a benefit in preventing death, but it was too small and not well randomized. I was disappointed to find that the most commonly cited study suggesting a relationship between vitamin D levels and covid-19 positivity was from my training institution, but was not well done as it failed to account for several socioeconomic factors that correlate with vitamin deficiency in the population and with covid-19, and there were some methodology flaws. Itís an interesting hypothesis but again correlation is not causation.

Tldr: itís a good idea to take vitamin D supplements for bone disorders, but evidence for covid-19 is very weak.

And of course correlation does not mean causation.  Elderly people seem more vulnerable to Covid, and elderly people tend to be Vitamin D deficient, but the deficiency may not be an important contributor to the vulnerability.  Vitamin D isn't technically a vitamin, but modern lifestyles mean most of us need the supplements.  Worth taking for bone density alone, and getting the bloodwork done to check for circulating blood levels.


I hate badly planned studies.  They waste time and money and can be misleading.  And the stats people play with, I've seen horrible statistical analyses done by people who had no clue.

ericrugiero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4310 on: October 30, 2020, 07:19:09 AM »
Why are you stuck on mortality rate? Intentionally endangering the vulnerable is not okay.

Yep.  A person who refuses to take recommended Covid precautions should be treated the way you treat a person who grabs their keys after chugging 40oz of malt liquor.  That behaviour is not OK.

That depends on the level of disregard the person displays.  I would argue that a person who is showing no symptoms, practices social distancing and washes hands but does not wear a mask is more on the level of driving 5-10 mph over the speed limit.  On the other hand, going out in public with no mask after a positive test or known exposure would be more like a DWI. 

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4311 on: October 30, 2020, 07:30:54 AM »
Why are you stuck on mortality rate? Intentionally endangering the vulnerable is not okay.

Yep.  A person who refuses to take recommended Covid precautions should be treated the way you treat a person who grabs their keys after chugging 40oz of malt liquor.  That behaviour is not OK.

I get your point but I think the metaphor is flawed. A person that just chugged a 40 is all but guaranteed to be negatively affected by that choice, and those negative affects are easily identifiable. The chances of a person that hasn't been distancing or wearing a mask actually being COVID positive are far lower than 'all but guaranteed' like the drunk and it's much harder to detect it.

Also if a person is truly "at risk" and they choose to associate with others, they're likely not following proper COVID protocols either. I have no idea if that's the case in the given example or not, but the "at risk" person getting infected has some responsibility for their own safety just as the person who hasn't been masking up does.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4312 on: October 30, 2020, 08:14:42 AM »
Why are you stuck on mortality rate? Intentionally endangering the vulnerable is not okay.

Yep.  A person who refuses to take recommended Covid precautions should be treated the way you treat a person who grabs their keys after chugging 40oz of malt liquor.  That behaviour is not OK.

I get your point but I think the metaphor is flawed. A person that just chugged a 40 is all but guaranteed to be negatively affected by that choice, and those negative affects are easily identifiable. The chances of a person that hasn't been distancing or wearing a mask actually being COVID positive are far lower than 'all but guaranteed' like the drunk and it's much harder to detect it.

The argument that you're making for Covid was once used for social acceptance of drunk driving.  "Ah, he's only a little tipsy and he's not going far."  Indeed, the vast majority of drunk drivers do not kill anyone when they get behind the wheel.  The chance of them killing someone though, this goes way, way up.

This is exactly the same as failing to wear a mask.  It may not spread the disease and kill someone, but statistically your odds go way up.


Also if a person is truly "at risk" and they choose to associate with others, they're likely not following proper COVID protocols either. I have no idea if that's the case in the given example or not, but the "at risk" person getting infected has some responsibility for their own safety just as the person who hasn't been masking up does.

This is blaming a victim for something without any knowledge of what that person has done in an attempt to excuse a person who we know is recklessly endangering others.  To what end?

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4313 on: October 30, 2020, 08:23:47 AM »
Why are you stuck on mortality rate? Intentionally endangering the vulnerable is not okay.

Yep.  A person who refuses to take recommended Covid precautions should be treated the way you treat a person who grabs their keys after chugging 40oz of malt liquor.  That behaviour is not OK.

I guess I would invert the question of this thread and ask -- how long are we going to have this blaming type of mentality, when we have never done that in the history of human kind?

I've limited my reading, but in my review of STAT News, The Economist, and The Atlantic, the growing scientific consensus is that we may be far off from a vaccine, that said vaccines are not going to be anywhere close to a cure-all, and that we have to learn to live with the virus.

What does that mean long term? Masks and distancing, but for how long?  It just seems incredibly likely to me that COVID is going to be with us indefinitely. And if that's the case, how and when do we pivot?

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4314 on: October 30, 2020, 08:33:40 AM »
Why are you stuck on mortality rate? Intentionally endangering the vulnerable is not okay.

Yep.  A person who refuses to take recommended Covid precautions should be treated the way you treat a person who grabs their keys after chugging 40oz of malt liquor.  That behaviour is not OK.

I guess I would invert the question of this thread and ask -- how long are we going to have this blaming type of mentality, when we have never done that in the history of human kind?

I've limited my reading, but in my review of STAT News, The Economist, and The Atlantic, the growing scientific consensus is that we may be far off from a vaccine, that said vaccines are not going to be anywhere close to a cure-all, and that we have to learn to live with the virus.

What does that mean long term? Masks and distancing, but for how long?  It just seems incredibly likely to me that COVID is going to be with us indefinitely. And if that's the case, how and when do we pivot?

How long are we planning on making drunk driving illegal?  When will we pivot?  I guess when circumstances change enough that it's no longer a risk to others . . . so maybe when autonomous vehicles replace human control.

For the moment though, we keep them.  Why pivot from a sensible safety precaution?

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4315 on: October 30, 2020, 08:41:49 AM »
Why are you stuck on mortality rate? Intentionally endangering the vulnerable is not okay.

Yep.  A person who refuses to take recommended Covid precautions should be treated the way you treat a person who grabs their keys after chugging 40oz of malt liquor.  That behaviour is not OK.

I guess I would invert the question of this thread and ask -- how long are we going to have this blaming type of mentality, when we have never done that in the history of human kind?

I've limited my reading, but in my review of STAT News, The Economist, and The Atlantic, the growing scientific consensus is that we may be far off from a vaccine, that said vaccines are not going to be anywhere close to a cure-all, and that we have to learn to live with the virus.

What does that mean long term? Masks and distancing, but for how long?  It just seems incredibly likely to me that COVID is going to be with us indefinitely. And if that's the case, how and when do we pivot?

How long are we planning on making drunk driving illegal?  When will we pivot?  I guess when circumstances change enough that it's no longer a risk to others . . . so maybe when autonomous vehicles replace human control.

For the moment though, we keep them.  Why pivot from a sensible safety precaution?

Dude, come on with the drunk driving comparison. It's not a good faith analogy.

I have worn masks, distanced, have not ate inside a restaurant, set up work from home, limited family visits, altered holiday plans, etc.; but I am not going to do all of this for that much longer.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4316 on: October 30, 2020, 08:45:15 AM »
Why would you stop, though? The danger has not passed.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4317 on: October 30, 2020, 08:51:54 AM »
Why are you stuck on mortality rate? Intentionally endangering the vulnerable is not okay.

Yep.  A person who refuses to take recommended Covid precautions should be treated the way you treat a person who grabs their keys after chugging 40oz of malt liquor.  That behaviour is not OK.

I guess I would invert the question of this thread and ask -- how long are we going to have this blaming type of mentality, when we have never done that in the history of human kind?

I've limited my reading, but in my review of STAT News, The Economist, and The Atlantic, the growing scientific consensus is that we may be far off from a vaccine, that said vaccines are not going to be anywhere close to a cure-all, and that we have to learn to live with the virus.

What does that mean long term? Masks and distancing, but for how long?  It just seems incredibly likely to me that COVID is going to be with us indefinitely. And if that's the case, how and when do we pivot?

How long are we planning on making drunk driving illegal?  When will we pivot?  I guess when circumstances change enough that it's no longer a risk to others . . . so maybe when autonomous vehicles replace human control.

For the moment though, we keep them.  Why pivot from a sensible safety precaution?

Dude, come on with the drunk driving comparison. It's not a good faith analogy.

I have worn masks, distanced, have not ate inside a restaurant, set up work from home, limited family visits, altered holiday plans, etc.; but I am not going to do all of this for that much longer.

I disagree.  Flagrantly putting other people at risk in both cases is very similar.

Your stated decision is not unique.  There are also a number of people unwilling to put up with drunk driving laws every year - even though it's dangerous to everyone to do so.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4318 on: October 30, 2020, 09:32:18 AM »
Why are you stuck on mortality rate? Intentionally endangering the vulnerable is not okay.

Yep.  A person who refuses to take recommended Covid precautions should be treated the way you treat a person who grabs their keys after chugging 40oz of malt liquor.  That behaviour is not OK.

I guess I would invert the question of this thread and ask -- how long are we going to have this blaming type of mentality, when we have never done that in the history of human kind?

I've limited my reading, but in my review of STAT News, The Economist, and The Atlantic, the growing scientific consensus is that we may be far off from a vaccine, that said vaccines are not going to be anywhere close to a cure-all, and that we have to learn to live with the virus.

What does that mean long term? Masks and distancing, but for how long?  It just seems incredibly likely to me that COVID is going to be with us indefinitely. And if that's the case, how and when do we pivot?

How long are we planning on making drunk driving illegal?  When will we pivot?  I guess when circumstances change enough that it's no longer a risk to others . . . so maybe when autonomous vehicles replace human control.

For the moment though, we keep them.  Why pivot from a sensible safety precaution?

Dude, come on with the drunk driving comparison. It's not a good faith analogy.

I have worn masks, distanced, have not ate inside a restaurant, set up work from home, limited family visits, altered holiday plans, etc.; but I am not going to do all of this for that much longer.

Agree that the drunk driving analogy is stupid/ a stretch.

Any driving analogy is dumb but if you were to make one I'd say speeding or maybe texting and driving would be more accurate. Something most people do but wont admit and doesnt end in an accident 99% of the time.

--------

Most people I know in real life have pivoted back to doing some friend/family gatherings and stuff. As to when society in general will is hard to say.

I was at a Drs office today and saw a half a dozen workers with thier mask either completley off or below the nose. They all fixed them when they saw me coming but this seems to be pretty common everywhere I go be it grocery; mechanic; home depot, etc.

People wear the mask for public facing interactions but co mingle unmasked with thier direct co-workers quite a bit it would seem.

--------

Everything I've read agrees with you Readysetmillionaire that a Vaccine is probaly still a ways off and far from a cure all.

Hard to say what will happen in the meantime. My guess is maybe people will hole up and social distance a bit over the winter and by Spring/summer people will be so tired of it we'll get back closer to "normal" but who knows.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4319 on: October 30, 2020, 09:36:57 AM »
Agree that the drunk driving analogy is stupid/ a stretch.

Any driving analogy is dumb but if you were to make one I'd say speeding or maybe texting and driving would be more accurate.

"the impairments associated with using a cell phone while driving can be as profound as those associated with driving while drunk" - https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16884056/

6 of one, half dozen of the other.

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4320 on: October 30, 2020, 09:45:38 AM »
Agree that the drunk driving analogy is stupid/ a stretch.

Any driving analogy is dumb but if you were to make one I'd say speeding or maybe texting and driving would be more accurate.

"the impairments associated with using a cell phone while driving can be as profound as those associated with driving while drunk" - https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16884056/

6 of one, half dozen of the other.

It may be just as dangerous; my point was more people do it and it's more accepted by polite society. Like if you say "i got hammered and drove home Friday" people will look at you like a crazy person and murderer and rightfully so. Verse taking a phone call in the car most wouldn't give a second look.


GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4321 on: October 30, 2020, 09:49:27 AM »
Agree that the drunk driving analogy is stupid/ a stretch.

Any driving analogy is dumb but if you were to make one I'd say speeding or maybe texting and driving would be more accurate.

"the impairments associated with using a cell phone while driving can be as profound as those associated with driving while drunk" - https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16884056/

6 of one, half dozen of the other.

It may be just as dangerous; my point was more people do it and it's more accepted by polite society. Like if you say "i got hammered and drove home Friday" people will look at you like a crazy person and murderer and rightfully so. Verse taking a phone call in the car most wouldn't give a second look.

Drunk driving was once socially acceptable, just as texting and driving currently appears to be.  Hopefully that will change just like mask wearing.  Drunk driving, texting and driving, failing to wear a mask when around others - they're all the same.  They're all indicative of a selfish reckless disregard for the safety of others.

They should all get a look as though you're a crazy person.  Rightfully so.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4322 on: October 30, 2020, 09:52:23 AM »
Getting a lot of personal satisfaction out of seeing some members the "bad-assity" squad, who have ostensibly committed to a life time of no-frills living, defect after six months of having to wear a mask and not go to Applebees.

To be less snarky, if your mental health is truly suffering, make some accommodations. Go visit friends and family. Just keep gatherings small and distance if you can. Take a road trip somewhere instead of flying. Rent a cabin near an outdoor rec area instead of Disneyland. etc.

But wear a mask. Distance in public. Get tested and self-isolate if you think you're sick. Those should be non-negotiable.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4323 on: October 30, 2020, 09:55:25 AM »
Quote
Just keep gatherings small and distance if you can


In the summer I still had BYOB drinks with close friends in their yards/patios. We set our chairs 6ft+ apart and enjoyed the evening together. Responsible socialization is possible.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4324 on: October 30, 2020, 09:57:32 AM »
To be less snarky, if your mental health is truly suffering, make some accommodations. Go visit friends and family. Just keep gatherings small and distance if you can. Take a road trip somewhere instead of flying. Rent a cabin near an outdoor rec area instead of Disneyland. etc.

But wear a mask. Distance in public. Get tested and self-isolate if you think you're sick. Those should be non-negotiable.

Agreed.

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4325 on: October 30, 2020, 10:25:17 AM »
Yep.  A person who refuses to take recommended Covid precautions should be treated the way you treat a person who grabs their keys after chugging 40oz of malt liquor.  That behaviour is not OK.

I get your point but I think the metaphor is flawed. A person that just chugged a 40 is all but guaranteed to be negatively affected by that choice, and those negative affects are easily identifiable. The chances of a person that hasn't been distancing or wearing a mask actually being COVID positive are far lower than 'all but guaranteed' like the drunk and it's much harder to detect it.

The argument that you're making for Covid was once used for social acceptance of drunk driving.  "Ah, he's only a little tipsy and he's not going far."  Indeed, the vast majority of drunk drivers do not kill anyone when they get behind the wheel.  The chance of them killing someone though, this goes way, way up.

This is exactly the same as failing to wear a mask.  It may not spread the disease and kill someone, but statistically your odds go way up.

I'm fine with your overall point that not taking precautions should be seen as socially unacceptable, risky behavior. I just think that there's a massive difference between driving drunk and not taking precautions for a respiratory virus that make it a bad way to try to illustrate your larger point.

Alcohol has immediate effects on a person's body every time they take a drink, those effects can easily be seen/felt, they can be tested for, and they fade in a few hours.

That's very different from a person not taking proper precautions with a virus. A person that's not taking COVID precautions isn't going to get the virus every time the way that an alcoholic does for each drink. The effects of the virus may never be visible or felt by an infected person, it's contagious for several days at a time and testing accuracy and timetables aren't super consistent.

They're just very different situations that I think make for a poor comparison.

Also if a person is truly "at risk" and they choose to associate with others, they're likely not following proper COVID protocols either. I have no idea if that's the case in the given example or not, but the "at risk" person getting infected has some responsibility for their own safety just as the person who hasn't been masking up does.

This is blaming a victim for something without any knowledge of what that person has done in an attempt to excuse a person who we know is recklessly endangering others.  To what end?

I'm only saying that a person who's at risk should be taking every precaution they see fit to take, just like the non-masker should. If an at-risk person had a family gathering that the non-masker attended, then the at risk person shares some of the blame should they get sick. They presumably understood the risks, and chose to take their chances with a behavior that increased their odds of getting the virus. If an at risk person catches the virus as the result of any choice that they made, they have some responsibility for that consequence. To continue your drunk driving analogy, it would be like getting in the passenger seat of a vehicle that the drunk person was driving. The drunk may crash the car, but the passenger made some risky choices there too. *Of course if an at-risk person catches the virus through no fault of their own (a care taker or something), then the responsibility for their safety shifts to the person who is in control of their exposure.

My parents and in laws are all in age groups that are at-risk. Some of them have co morbidities that put them at even higher risk. They all take some precautions to reduce risk that they feel are appropriate, but none of them are locking themselves away and completely eliminating the risk all together. They're all consenting adults and can make their own choices RE risk and behaviors and chance of exposure. They know that it would be bad if they were to get sick, they're in control of where they go and who they're around, and they're at least partly responsible for any consequences of their actions.

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4326 on: October 30, 2020, 10:26:31 AM »
Getting a lot of personal satisfaction out of seeing some members the "bad-assity" squad, who have ostensibly committed to a life time of no-frills living, defect after six months of having to wear a mask and not go to Applebees.

To be less snarky, if your mental health is truly suffering, make some accommodations. Go visit friends and family. Just keep gatherings small and distance if you can. Take a road trip somewhere instead of flying. Rent a cabin near an outdoor rec area instead of Disneyland. etc.

But wear a mask. Distance in public. Get tested and self-isolate if you think you're sick. Those should be non-negotiable.

This is basically what I've done.

My point is that society is simply not going to do masks/distancing *indefinitely* for a variety of reasons. Neither will I. And I'm someone who has largely been following the protocols since March.

Government can either accept this reality and figure something out or continue the blame game for their bad policy.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4327 on: October 30, 2020, 10:29:29 AM »
Re: government "figuring something out"



What do you think a better, more accessible, sustainable and cost effective solution is in comparison with mask wearing and social distancing?

bigblock440

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4328 on: October 30, 2020, 10:37:08 AM »
Why are you stuck on mortality rate? Intentionally endangering the vulnerable is not okay.

Because nobody gives a shit if you endanger anyone with any of the other potentially deadly diseases, I want to know what the cutoff is for treating people like murderers.  Why is that such a hard question to answer?

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4329 on: October 30, 2020, 10:54:54 AM »
Why do you think people don't give a shit? I give many shits. We work to lower transmission rates of other deadly diseases like HIV by advising protective practices. We encourage vaccination for things like the flu and HPV. What deadly diseases do you believe people are apathetic about spreading?

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4330 on: October 30, 2020, 11:08:18 AM »
Re: government "figuring something out"

What do you think a better, more accessible, sustainable and cost effective solution is in comparison with mask wearing and social distancing?

For starters, if I were governor of Ohio, I would:

1) Immediately allow schools and colleges to fully reopen without any restrictions whatsoever. Staff who felt vulnerable could opt out with paid leave for 12 months or, for colleges, remotely lecture from an alternate location.

2) Dedicate all the resources being wasted by our colleges and universities to nursing homes and hospitals. Universities are basically engaged in a PR stunt right now with all the testing, contact tracing, etc.  There have been over 5,000,000 tests, with 150,000 positive tests, on students. There have been a grand total of 15 hospitalizations and 0 deaths. This group is 99.997% not at risk. It's an incredible waste of resources that could be better spent on protecting the more vulnerable populations that need protected.

3) Use these tests and designate family members as essential workers eligible to be tested two times a week so they can visit loved ones in nursing homes.  What we are doing to our elderly is one of the great crimes in modern history. NBC had a tragic story this week quoting nursing home industry professionals from across the country stating that loneliness, despair, and anxiety are greater threats to this population than COVID.

4) Stop the sanitation silliness, which is again a waste of resources. The scientific consensus (from what I've read in WaPo/The Atlantic) is that surface spread is minimal and that the focus should be on ventilation. I would provide grants to stores, restaurants, etc. to improve ventilation.

5) Ensure that PCR tests are not cycling at above 35 cycles (many currently have 40 cycles, which is absurd). Per Fauci, while above 35 is "technically positive, the chances of that being replication competent are extremely low. In other words, you could have a PCR-positive test and yet still not be contagious."

6) Have to be frank -- the science supporting non-fitted cloth masks is bunk, so I would not mandate masks. If we could distribute N-95s to every household, and have them all professionally fitted, that's a different story.

7) Continue the emphasis on treatments, as that is our best hope. Our treatments have improved to such a degree that COVID deaths are starting to fall in line with all cause mortality. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-covid-deaths-age-related-pattern-expert.html

8) Acknowledge that obesity is the second most important correlation for fatal outcomes (behind age). Be honest with citizens and tell those at risk that being obese puts them at far greater risk.

***

In sum, I would target our resources and get on with life. I think holistic public health has suffered greatly and I think we need to pivot to more sane and humanitarian policy.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2020, 11:10:57 AM by ReadySetMillionaire »

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4331 on: October 30, 2020, 11:10:31 AM »
Why do you think people don't give a shit? I give many shits. We work to lower transmission rates of other deadly diseases like HIV by advising protective practices. We encourage vaccination for things like the flu and HPV. What deadly diseases do you believe people are apathetic about spreading?

The "work" we do to lower transmission of these viruses is a millionth of the sacrifices that government has asked in response to COVID. Comparing wearing condoms and getting vaccines to people giving up every aspect of their life is not a remotely fair comparison. In fact, it illustrates just how much we have completely lost the forest from the trees when it comes to overall public health.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4332 on: October 30, 2020, 11:12:42 AM »
Re vaccine, I am perfectly willing to live with a short term vaccine that means I get it renewed every year.  Just like I do with the flu vaccine.  Of course I would like it to last longer, we are every 10 years for tetanus.

I remember when we all drank and drove and thought nothing of it.  More "macho" world, I can remember so many girlfriends and wives (who were sober) offering to drive, and their quite drunk boyfriends and husbands would claim they were fine to drive.  I'm amazed so many of us survived.  I also remember when going to a bar was horrible because of the cigarette smoke haze.  Deciding to take a shower when I got home, because otherwise my hair still reeked of cigarette smoke the next morning.  Social norms change.

For the rest, I AM IN THE VULNERABLE AGE GROUP.  Those of you who are not taking precautions are making it harder for vulnerable people to have a life, because we have to be even more careful than we would otherwise be. 

The Americans who are coming to Canada (because we are allowing people to cross the border for family reunification) and are not following the 14 day isolation are going to make it worse for all other visitors.
https://northernontario.ctvnews.ca/two-americans-in-northern-ontario-community-charged-with-breaking-quarantine-act-1.5166384
Plus seeing how the American states are treating this means that there are going to be a lot fewer Canadian tourists this winter.  Everyone I know who winters in either Florida or California is staying home this winter.  Small sample, I know.

I really appreciate that almost everyone here in Ottawa that I see when I am out is wearing a mask (indoors, close to other people outdoors) and being reasonably good about social distancing.  I have seen DD once since last December, and that was in a park in the sunshine and we stayed well apart.  She and her DH have lots of time off at Christmas and plan to do strict quarantine so they can come and visit me.  My friends range in age from mostly 50 to 90, and their children are being careful for their sakes.

What would you all do if you were living in London during the Blitz?  Leave your curtains open?  Not wear your gas masks and helmets?  Moan and groan in the air raid shelters?  Seriously, this is not that great a hardship. 

And bigblock440, it used to be that average life expectancy was in the 40s, not because people died of old age at 40, but because that is an average and a huge number of children died before they reached 5.  We don't have 50% child mortality any more.  Most of the really deadly diseases are taken care of by public health and sanitation.  You are not being exposed to cholera because of sewage and water treatment.  You don't get diphtheria because there is a childhood vaccine for that.  Your children don't get polio because there is a vaccine for that. 
http://www.health.gov.on.ca/en/public/programs/immunization/static/immunization_tool.html
People with things like pneumonia get medical care and anti-biotics.  Most of our deaths are from diseases that develop as we age, because the infectious diseases that kill us fast are mostly under control. 

The downside to good public health practices is that people have grown complacent and don't see the need for personal precautions any more.  They have almost no experience of knowing people who died young, and when they do it is from unexpected things like aneurysms and fast growing cancers and fatal accidents.


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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4333 on: October 30, 2020, 11:19:36 AM »
Why are you stuck on mortality rate? Intentionally endangering the vulnerable is not okay.

Yep.  A person who refuses to take recommended Covid precautions should be treated the way you treat a person who grabs their keys after chugging 40oz of malt liquor.  That behaviour is not OK.

I guess I would invert the question of this thread and ask -- how long are we going to have this blaming type of mentality, when we have never done that in the history of human kind?

I've limited my reading, but in my review of STAT News, The Economist, and The Atlantic, the growing scientific consensus is that we may be far off from a vaccine, that said vaccines are not going to be anywhere close to a cure-all, and that we have to learn to live with the virus.

What does that mean long term? Masks and distancing, but for how long?  It just seems incredibly likely to me that COVID is going to be with us indefinitely. And if that's the case, how and when do we pivot?

How long are we planning on making drunk driving illegal?  When will we pivot?  I guess when circumstances change enough that it's no longer a risk to others . . . so maybe when autonomous vehicles replace human control.

For the moment though, we keep them.  Why pivot from a sensible safety precaution?

Dude, come on with the drunk driving comparison. It's not a good faith analogy.

I have worn masks, distanced, have not ate inside a restaurant, set up work from home, limited family visits, altered holiday plans, etc.; but I am not going to do all of this for that much longer.

Agree that the drunk driving analogy is stupid/ a stretch.

Any driving analogy is dumb but if you were to make one I'd say speeding or maybe texting and driving would be more accurate. Something most people do but wont admit and doesnt end in an accident 99% of the time.

--------

Most people I know in real life have pivoted back to doing some friend/family gatherings and stuff. As to when society in general will is hard to say.

I was at a Drs office today and saw a half a dozen workers with thier mask either completley off or below the nose. They all fixed them when they saw me coming but this seems to be pretty common everywhere I go be it grocery; mechanic; home depot, etc.

People wear the mask for public facing interactions but co mingle unmasked with thier direct co-workers quite a bit it would seem.

--------

Everything I've read agrees with you Readysetmillionaire that a Vaccine is probaly still a ways off and far from a cure all.

Hard to say what will happen in the meantime. My guess is maybe people will hole up and social distance a bit over the winter and by Spring/summer people will be so tired of it we'll get back closer to "normal" but who knows.

Dr. Nicholas Christakis, who is a professor at Yale was on Sam Harris earlier this week and he said he thinks it'll be another 1.5 years before the vaccine and/or herd immunity gets to a point where we are good in America and he says it'll be ~2024 before things go back to normal.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4334 on: October 30, 2020, 11:21:13 AM »
Why do you think people don't give a shit? I give many shits. We work to lower transmission rates of other deadly diseases like HIV by advising protective practices. We encourage vaccination for things like the flu and HPV. What deadly diseases do you believe people are apathetic about spreading?

The "work" we do to lower transmission of these viruses is a millionth of the sacrifices that government has asked in response to COVID. Comparing wearing condoms and getting vaccines to people giving up every aspect of their life is not a remotely fair comparison. In fact, it illustrates just how much we have completely lost the forest from the trees when it comes to overall public health.

It's a lot of work because we're just starting! It won't be this much work forever, even if covid never goes away.

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4335 on: October 30, 2020, 11:24:59 AM »
Dr. Nicholas Christakis, who is a professor at Yale was on Sam Harris earlier this week and he said he thinks it'll be another 1.5 years before the vaccine and/or herd immunity gets to a point where we are good in America and he says it'll be ~2024 before things go back to normal.

This is similar to what I have been reading on STAT news.  Trump effectively lying about the vaccine timeline teeters on impeachable.

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4336 on: October 30, 2020, 11:25:38 AM »
Why do you think people don't give a shit? I give many shits. We work to lower transmission rates of other deadly diseases like HIV by advising protective practices. We encourage vaccination for things like the flu and HPV. What deadly diseases do you believe people are apathetic about spreading?

The "work" we do to lower transmission of these viruses is a millionth of the sacrifices that government has asked in response to COVID. Comparing wearing condoms and getting vaccines to people giving up every aspect of their life is not a remotely fair comparison. In fact, it illustrates just how much we have completely lost the forest from the trees when it comes to overall public health.

It's a lot of work because we're just starting! It won't be this much work forever, even if covid never goes away.

I think I get what you are saying. I laid out eight points on what I would generally do if I were king of the world. What would you do? Honestly just curious.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4337 on: October 30, 2020, 11:30:35 AM »
I disagree with a lot of them but I want to give my reply more attention than I have to spare currently.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4338 on: October 30, 2020, 12:43:34 PM »
Getting a lot of personal satisfaction out of seeing some members the "bad-assity" squad, who have ostensibly committed to a life time of no-frills living, defect after six months of having to wear a mask and not go to Applebees.

To be less snarky, if your mental health is truly suffering, make some accommodations. Go visit friends and family. Just keep gatherings small and distance if you can. Take a road trip somewhere instead of flying. Rent a cabin near an outdoor rec area instead of Disneyland. etc.

But wear a mask. Distance in public. Get tested and self-isolate if you think you're sick. Those should be non-negotiable.

This is basically what I've done.

My point is that society is simply not going to do masks/distancing *indefinitely* for a variety of reasons. Neither will I. And I'm someone who has largely been following the protocols since March.

Government can either accept this reality and figure something out or continue the blame game for their bad policy.

I don't accept as fact that people are simply tuned to revolt against masks and distancing. Leadership matters. And American leadership has been epically bad on this from day 1. If you lead in the right way, people don't mind engaging in pro-social behavior.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4339 on: October 30, 2020, 12:55:56 PM »
Just by the by, the depression lasted many years. And when the United States entered WWII, 10 million young men were drafted into service and we rebuilt our economy around women in the workforce.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4340 on: October 30, 2020, 12:57:42 PM »
The "work" we do to lower transmission of these viruses is a millionth of the sacrifices that government has asked in response to COVID. Comparing wearing condoms and getting vaccines to people giving up every aspect of their life is not a remotely fair comparison. In fact, it illustrates just how much we have completely lost the forest from the trees when it comes to overall public health.

Do you feel you've given up every aspect of your life?

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4341 on: October 30, 2020, 01:02:24 PM »
Fourth post in a row!

For what it's worth, I've come around on opening schools. It will increase transmission, but the results with remote learning haven't been great from what I've seen.

dandarc

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4342 on: October 30, 2020, 01:11:00 PM »
Now I really want to know RSM's story. "Avoid crowds, particularly indoor crowds, and wear a mask when in public" = "giving up every aspect of your life".

What does life look like that this is remotely true?

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4343 on: October 30, 2020, 01:16:58 PM »
Now I really want to know RSM's story. "Avoid crowds, particularly indoor crowds, and wear a mask when in public" = "giving up every aspect of your life".

What does life look like that this is remotely true?

I just assumed that he goes to a lot of raves and communicates mostly by lip reading.  (Too many raves will make you deaf!)

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4344 on: October 30, 2020, 01:21:08 PM »
For real, I don't want to make light of anyone's situation. Mental health is no joke and isolation can make it worse.

I just can't reconcile not making reasonable accommodations and looking out for each other with the supposed toughness that is associated with Americans.

I sympathize with people wanting to open up schools if they've got empirical evidence that kids are being harmed. And I can sympathize with people who are unemployed, but that's a reason why the government needs to be borrowing and spending IMO. Not a reason why we've got to pretend like things are normal.

Plina

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4345 on: October 30, 2020, 02:06:09 PM »
We donít have mask mandate and our authorities donít support mask wearing. I am a pretty big introvert but honestly I am starting to getting really tired of this. I work from home about 2-3 days a week and rest from the office. Previously I worked from home from march to july. From september I have been working part time from the office because I need some socializing and the intellectual stimulance. During the spring and Summer it was ok because you could be outdoors but now when the dark and rainy season have started it is getting hard.

I miss going to the gym. I miss going to seminars and conferences and chat business with people. I miss seeing my grandfather. I miss sitting in a restaurant and cafť and enjoying my time instead of wondering why that family choose the table next to us when there was other available. I miss going to restaurants and not cringe when someone coughs. Or taking the bus without being bothered by the coughing of someone. I miss going to places that I today avoid because I would have to take public transport to get there. And above all I miss traveling, because who want to travel outside of the country and risk getting stuck there.

I am a homebody, but even I am tired of being home and of my own company. I am actually considering buying a house in the suburbs to get a garden and my own gym. So I actually understand the feeling of giving up every aspect of your life because it feels like I have given up lot of the enjoyable aspects. I am still going to do my best to socially distance but I will not be as strict as I have been during the spring and most of the summer.

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4346 on: October 30, 2020, 02:18:26 PM »
Do you feel you've given up every aspect of your life?

My personal and professional life has been significantly disrupted.

I enjoy my profession (attorney) because I get to go around, meet new clients, go to CLE's, go to hearings, etc. All of that changed.  I went from probably 20 hearings per month to zero for about five months.  I have only had three in-person meetings with clients since March. My monthly Inn of Courts (favorite night of the month -- hour CLE, free dinner, and beers afterwards) has basically dissolved. My career has gone from solving people's problems and being social to pushing paper for people I've never met.

Moreover, the tedium of the remote technology has been incredibly difficult for a solo practitioner. I did just hire someone to help out 4-8 hours per week, but setting up Zoom meetings, remote depositions, etc. was extremely disruptive and tedious.

Personally, my non-professional social outlets include attending sporting events. Ohio State, Browns, Indians, etc. This is by far and away my biggest recreational passion in life and it is completely gone. Just to give you an idea, the last time I did not attend the Ohio State season opener was in 2000. The last time I did not attend the Ohio State v. Michigan game was in 1996, when I was 7. These are markers on the calendar the same way others might think of holidays. My mom cries when we get to the Michigan game and always says, "We made it another year." Meaning "we're alive." Completely gone.

My wife and I used to go to church bi-weekly. It was a vibrant community. It was shut down for four months and now it is a ghost-town.

Meeting friends at bars (basically gone until recently), and playing in card games (violates the gathering rules) were also basically stripped away. I am hosting cards for the first time since March next Tuesday.

The nail in the coffin was not being able to see my mom after her cancer surgeries. That filled me with a boiling rage that I have never recovered from.

So yes, my life has been completely turned upside down. If yours hasn't, I'm genuinely (not being sarcastic) happy for you.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2020, 02:20:36 PM by ReadySetMillionaire »

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4347 on: October 30, 2020, 02:18:52 PM »
We donít have mask mandate and our authorities donít support mask wearing. I am a pretty big introvert but honestly I am starting to getting really tired of this. I work from home about 2-3 days a week and rest from the office. Previously I worked from home from march to july. From september I have been working part time from the office because I need some socializing and the intellectual stimulance. During the spring and Summer it was ok because you could be outdoors but now when the dark and rainy season have started it is getting hard.

I miss going to the gym. I miss going to seminars and conferences and chat business with people. I miss seeing my grandfather. I miss sitting in a restaurant and cafť and enjoying my time instead of wondering why that family choose the table next to us when there was other available. I miss going to restaurants and not cringe when someone coughs. Or taking the bus without being bothered by the coughing of someone. I miss going to places that I today avoid because I would have to take public transport to get there. And above all I miss traveling, because who want to travel outside of the country and risk getting stuck there.

I am a homebody, but even I am tired of being home and of my own company. I am actually considering buying a house in the suburbs to get a garden and my own gym. So I actually understand the feeling of giving up every aspect of your life because it feels like I have given up lot of the enjoyable aspects. I am still going to do my best to socially distance but I will not be as strict as I have been during the spring and most of the summer.

Thank you for sharing.

mizzourah2006

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4348 on: October 30, 2020, 02:41:25 PM »
Do you feel you've given up every aspect of your life?

My personal and professional life has been significantly disrupted.

I enjoy my profession (attorney) because I get to go around, meet new clients, go to CLE's, go to hearings, etc. All of that changed.  I went from probably 20 hearings per month to zero for about five months.  I have only had three in-person meetings with clients since March. My monthly Inn of Courts (favorite night of the month -- hour CLE, free dinner, and beers afterwards) has basically dissolved. My career has gone from solving people's problems and being social to pushing paper for people I've never met.

Moreover, the tedium of the remote technology has been incredibly difficult for a solo practitioner. I did just hire someone to help out 4-8 hours per week, but setting up Zoom meetings, remote depositions, etc. was extremely disruptive and tedious.

Personally, my non-professional social outlets include attending sporting events. Ohio State, Browns, Indians, etc. This is by far and away my biggest recreational passion in life and it is completely gone. Just to give you an idea, the last time I did not attend the Ohio State season opener was in 2000. The last time I did not attend the Ohio State v. Michigan game was in 1996, when I was 7. These are markers on the calendar the same way others might think of holidays. My mom cries when we get to the Michigan game and always says, "We made it another year." Meaning "we're alive." Completely gone.

My wife and I used to go to church bi-weekly. It was a vibrant community. It was shut down for four months and now it is a ghost-town.

Meeting friends at bars (basically gone until recently), and playing in card games (violates the gathering rules) were also basically stripped away. I am hosting cards for the first time since March next Tuesday.

The nail in the coffin was not being able to see my mom after her cancer surgeries. That filled me with a boiling rage that I have never recovered from.

So yes, my life has been completely turned upside down. If yours hasn't, I'm genuinely (not being sarcastic) happy for you.

I think from earlier threads this forum and lifestyle tends to attract introverts, so fewer opportunities for social interaction, while not ideal, doesn't have the same impact it has on someone that generates a lot of their energy from social interaction.

I'm similar to you, but if I'm being honest my life hasn't been impacted that greatly (which I count as a blessing). I already worked from home and while I have always gone to 10-12 live professional or collegiate sporting events per year I can get by without for a year or so. I do miss my weekly social release with friends, it's been tough as many of my friends are still literally locked up in their homes, but some are doing outdoor beer gardens, etc. However, that was once a week or at the very least once every 2 weeks, now it's once every 4-6 weeks, so working remotely in a programming job and being an extrovert has made it hard.

I will say that one thing that has made this at least manageable for my family is that our daycare only shutdown for 4 weeks. If we were in the position that people in many other states are in either my wife or I literally would have had to quit our jobs. She has had to go into the office the entire time and I have a pretty demanding consulting/data science job and we have a 5-year-old and a 2-year-old. So, I'm lucky I live in the state I live in and they were more lenient about childcare or I think it would be fair to say that this would have impacted about every aspect of my life.

Like you said, if people have only been minorly inconvenienced by the past 8 months they should consider themselves lucky.

bigblock440

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4349 on: October 30, 2020, 02:52:25 PM »
Why do you think people don't give a shit? I give many shits. We work to lower transmission rates of other deadly diseases like HIV by advising protective practices. We encourage vaccination for things like the flu and HPV. What deadly diseases do you believe people are apathetic about spreading?

I've never heard anybody call someone who contracted the flu a murderer before, just asking what threshold we start that at.  Seems to be a new thing, but maybe I'm just one of the XKCD 10,000 today.