Author Topic: How do you balance staying critically minded while also relying on experts?  (Read 1902 times)

HBFIRE

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As someone who tries to question things as much as I can, I find there is a tough balance of relying on expert opinion and remaining critical minded.  To live a practical life, I have to rely on experts, but to what extent should I be comfortable doing so?

How do you balance the two?  Obviously it's impractical to become an expert on everything, nor should it necessarily be a goal to do so.  That said, experts are often either wrong or aren't transparent in whose interest they have in mind.

The other difficulty of course is that experts are often in disagreement, so even if you research what an expert tells you, you'll often find counter points to his/her opinion.

How does one balance all of this and stay efficient without going down too many rabbit holes?

BECABECA

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I leverage the opinions of other experts in a given expert’s field. For example, if >90% of experts in a given field agree on X, then I just take X as a given. I don’t have time to investigate everything, and something with <10% chance of being worth investigation doesn’t make it into the worth my time bucket. When the consensus of the field shifts, I move with the consensus. If the field is more evenly split, I typically wait to make any decisions until a consensus forms.

Additionally, when applying to me personally, like a medical treatment or a house repair, I ask the expert to explain their rationale. Nearly every time, when this explanation passes my general logic sniff test, following through with the expert’s recommendation turns out well. Early in my adult life, I was much more lenient when an expert’s explanation didn’t quite add up, and I got burned in pretty much every case. I’ve learned to trust intuition on this a lot more. And if an expert doesn’t feel comfortable explaining their rationale to me, that makes me seriously doubt their motives are in my best interest.

HBFIRE

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Fellow HB poster!  Are the statistics on agreement usually accessible?

EscapedApe

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I assign greater weight to people who gain nothing from their stance on an issue.

happy

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I also only use experts that have come with a lot of good reviews/recommendations from people I trust. 

BECABECA

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Fellow HB poster!  Are the statistics on agreement usually accessible?

HB in the house!

How amazing would it be if we had AI tabulating the consensus of human knowledge on every possible topic and keeping a running tally somewhere so we could all reference real-time numbers! Maybe Wikipedia will one day be that, here’s hoping.

In the meantime, the best we have is peer reviewed journals. For the medical field, UpToDate tabulates all the evidence based research on a given issue and the latest consensus on most effective treatments. I think it’s crazy that all doctors don’t use this.

Unfortunately, I’m not aware of a similar one stop shop in any other field (if anybody is, I’d love to know about it!) For other fields, I’m left with trusting research from peer reviewed journals with high impact factors. If something makes it into one of those, it has had to pass more scrutiny than I would be capable of personally applying, and if it has been out for a few years, referenced a lot and not credibly contested in an equal or higher impact factor journal, I take it as a given until that changes.

For information that isn’t something you could find in peer reviewed journals, I go with Wikipedia, since it’s at least reviewed by the collective hive mind of the internet, which is worlds more reliable than most stuff on the internet.

Buffaloski Boris

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I seem to be wired (or cursed) to see the world through a different lens. To my way of thinking it’s less a case of whether I question a popular opinion, but (1) whether it’s important and (2) whether I think I have any meaningful control on the outcome. Unless I can answer both questions in the affirmative, it’s not worth fussing over.



 

Moonwaves

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I've never quite figured this one out but I came relatively late to critical thinking so tend to rely more on experts, and specifically experts who people I respect think are worth listening to.

For climate science, the realclimate blog can be interesting.

cupcakery

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Follow the money.  What do they have to gain?  Also, are they pushing mediocrity?  Sometimes you just have to trust your gut.

2sk22

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A good expert is one who is willing to acknowledge that they have made mistakes and could make mistakes in the future.

More abstractly: ideally, you want an expert who only makes falsifiable statements and predictions. As per Karl Popper: a statement, hypothesis, or theory is falsifiable if it can be demonstrated to be false by observation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsifiability).

partgypsy

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Re: How do you balance staying critically minded while also relying on experts?
« Reply #10 on: December 19, 2019, 09:34:40 AM »
As someone who tries to question things as much as I can, I find there is a tough balance of relying on expert opinion and remaining critical minded.  To live a practical life, I have to rely on experts, but to what extent should I be comfortable doing so?

How do you balance the two?  Obviously it's impractical to become an expert on everything, nor should it necessarily be a goal to do so.  That said, experts are often either wrong or aren't transparent in whose interest they have in mind.

The other difficulty of course is that experts are often in disagreement, so even if you research what an expert tells you, you'll often find counter points to his/her opinion.

How does one balance all of this and stay efficient without going down too many rabbit holes?

I don't see how relying on expert opinion and being critically-minded are naturally opposed. I think most people just rely on what they've always done, what the people around them believe, etc and come from that kind of gut, emotional response. Everything from child rearing to diet or whatever. Oftentimes what they grew up believing is not what experts in the field would agree or recommend. Most people do not search out what are the clinical, scientific consensus before acting, making decisions. So simply seeing what experts say, what the literature says is actually a good first step in being critically minded.

There are some fields (vaccinations, theory of evolution, man-made climate change and environmental degradation) that have very high scientific consensus, to the point they are not arguing about the "Fact" of say natural selection, or man-made climate change, but more about the details. Other areas I can think of diet (which is a young science, as is psychology) where you can read a wide range of what should be best practices and there is not a consensus, except in the broad terms.

Do your research. Be critical of the SOURCE of these opinions, both where they were published and the authors themselves, whether they were funded or worked for industry or otherwise may have a profit motive for presenting those views. Also understand that some areas you may need to make decisions or have views without having complete information, but based on what you DO know, whether it seems consistent or not.


Laura33

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Re: How do you balance staying critically minded while also relying on experts?
« Reply #11 on: December 19, 2019, 11:29:23 AM »
I think there is a conflict here only if you go into it with the expectation that we know all there is to know, and the only question is whose version is right.  What if you assume, instead, that all our knowledge is imperfect?  Then your critical thinking skills are directly relevant, because you are always evaluating which version of current scientific knowledge is the least imperfect.

For me, I start with triage:  how much do I care/how much does the answer matter to me/would the difference between the options be meaningful?  The level of effort I put into figuring out the best approach is directly proportional to the import of getting it "right."  So when I was wondering about what a good stroller/carseat was, I asked my SIL (who had done all the research); if she hadn't been available, I'd have pulled up Consumer Reports or somesuch and called it good. OTOH, when I was struggling to meet my daughter's needs, I spent literally years reading all sorts of parenting books and researching the state of the science until I figured it out.

Assuming it's something I care about and there are conflicting versions of "right" out there, I look for problems that might undercut the findings on each side.  What is the sum total of the evidence/research/sample size we have (more is better)?  Is it clinical or epidemiological (epidemiology is fine, but if we don't have some clinical explanation of why/how the purported cause leads to the noted effect, that leaves open the possibility that it's correlation, not causation)?  How have they address possible confounding factors, and have they left anything out?  Is there bias built into the findings (e.g., old studies that relied on white men being extrapolated to other races and genders)?  Does the study come from someone with an ax to grind (which increases the likelihood of a finger on the scale)?  Have the study results been peer-reviewed (although even this is caveated, as it's very easy to get into Groupthink).  Is there some other way the same data could be construed to draw some other conclusion (the Freakanomics kind of approach -- e.g., does the marshmallow study mean poor kids have no self-control, or does it mean they are acting rationally given their life experience?).

Actually, if it's a newspaper headline, the first question is "does the study really say that?"  Because more often than not, the study doesn't say what is reported, or all of the caveats and qualifications are completely ignored.

After I do all that -- again, assuming I care enough to do so -- I am usually left with an imperfect answer on one side and a slightly-less-imperfect answer on the other.  And usually by that point, I go with what seems to make the most sense to me, based on my own understanding of the issues involved and how well the author has tied in his/her points to solid scientific principles and data.  Which is not always majority rule; for ex., I was a huge fan of behavioral economics back when the guys who initiated that branch of the science were still by and large treated as pariahs, because what they were saying just made sense (I'd never bought the whole "rational man" precept that traditional economics is based on; I just didn't have a framework for any other alternative).

GreenToTheCore

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Re: How do you balance staying critically minded while also relying on experts?
« Reply #12 on: December 19, 2019, 12:04:29 PM »
Oh man, this is something I think about often. Per usual, Laura33 articulates my thoughts better than I could.
This is a particular pet-peeve of mine:
Actually, if it's a newspaper headline, the first question is "does the study really say that?"  Because more often than not, the study doesn't say what is reported, or all of the caveats and qualifications are completely ignored.

I haven't found a perfect balance between not-knowing-as-much-as-I-would-like-to and spending-enough-time-to-make-a-masterful-spreadsheet-of-information-and-sources.
At the moment my approach is to accept that I'll put in effort on things that I care enough to do so & that maybe a perfect conclusion isn't realistic but the journey provides enough value.

The next step is figuring out if my efforts can benefit others in some way. The "Action" piece seems to be equally as difficult.


I have been playing with the thought of getting together with a group where we helping each other collect data/sources/info. Seems like it could be neat to have buddies to share the info gathering stage with. Could also be a complete disaster. Definitely would need ground rules on respect and different opinions.
Let me know if you'd be interested in joining a group like that.
« Last Edit: December 19, 2019, 12:08:58 PM by GreenToTheCore »

BicycleB

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Re: How do you balance staying critically minded while also relying on experts?
« Reply #13 on: December 19, 2019, 12:45:10 PM »
Like Laura33, I apply critical thinking as needed based on the nature the situation - importance, personal involvement; one where expertise is likely to add value (technology, medicine) vs one where interested misinformation reigns (politics, some financial issues).

Generally, I view experts as sources of possibly useful opinion, but am still a critical thinker regarding their opinions. At times, I use their opinions as guides to where I choose to expand my own knowledge.

lexde

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Re: How do you balance staying critically minded while also relying on experts?
« Reply #14 on: December 19, 2019, 01:50:55 PM »
1. What underlying facts or data are they relying on in forming their opinions?
2. Is that data complete and accurate?
3. What method or principle do they apply those facts/data to in order to form their opinion?
4. Is that process able to be replicated?
5. What do others in the field think?
6. What are the expert’s qualifications?

NorthernBlitz

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Re: How do you balance staying critically minded while also relying on experts?
« Reply #15 on: December 19, 2019, 04:04:05 PM »
As someone who tries to question things as much as I can, I find there is a tough balance of relying on expert opinion and remaining critical minded.  To live a practical life, I have to rely on experts, but to what extent should I be comfortable doing so?

How do you balance the two?  Obviously it's impractical to become an expert on everything, nor should it necessarily be a goal to do so.  That said, experts are often either wrong or aren't transparent in whose interest they have in mind.

The other difficulty of course is that experts are often in disagreement, so even if you research what an expert tells you, you'll often find counter points to his/her opinion.

How does one balance all of this and stay efficient without going down too many rabbit holes?

The truth of how most people handle this is probably something like agree with the experts that say things you already agreed with and be super-critical of those that you didn't.

I'm sure I also fall into that confirmation bias.

But for things I think are important, I at least try to go to something that looks kind of like first principles for the argument. Ideally on both sides. Then, I don't try to see who's "right". Instead I try to ask "is that opinion / argument reasonable".

I also try to think about whether I'm reacting emotionally or logically (or probably both).

Again, I'm certainly not batting 1.000. But I think that's a reasonable way to go.

I think Johnathan Haidt's book "The Righteous Mind" and Danny Khanaman's "Thinking fast and slow" were good books about how to try to think about not rushing to judgement.


LonerMatt

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Re: How do you balance staying critically minded while also relying on experts?
« Reply #16 on: December 19, 2019, 05:05:50 PM »
Generally I'll credit someone's view if it makes sense and doesn't contradict a common sense (unless there's a good and direct explanation for it), often what I believe is an amalgamation of various answers and pieces of information. Rarely does one person have all the information, any expert will acknowledge this.

At times this makes life easy, at others it makes it hard. We all want closure and causality for complex questions (why is education in Australia dropping in quality?) - there's not really AN answer to questions like these. It's a complex process where we can't assign one factor or even a hierarchy of factors. That's ok.

And, as always, I tend to agree with people whose positions align with my values.