Author Topic: Food for thought: Would the world/economy survive if everyone retired early?  (Read 7669 times)

curiousmind

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Hi mustachians - just a food for thought because I'm curious. If everyone in the country managed to retire early (let's say 35 or so), would the world/economy survive? We would have less of a consumerism behaviour, which may drive down some of the need to produce more, but what about food and such? I personally don't have an economics background but I'd like to see if anyone with experience in these higher level thinking can give their two cents :)

obstinate

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If enough people tried to do this, equity would begin growing more slowly, and thus the 4% rule would no longer be a safe bet. It would require more and more capital to retire early as a greater proportion of the workforce retired (assuming flat productivity).

Fortunately: 1. Human nature doesn't change on a timeframe where this will be a problem for any of us and 2. Eventually, everyone will be able to retire early with robots and smart computers and whatnot. Probably not in our lifetimes or our kids' lifetimes, but someday.

warfreak2

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If everyone retired early, the world would keep working fine. We'd be using global productivity increases to work less, instead of to consume more (like we have been doing with most productivity increases throughout history). There would be fewer people working, and also less work required to satisfy our (fewer, less expensive) desires.

agent_clone

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Yes I think it would.  It is not a change that would happen over night so the world would adapt to the change.  There are also many people who while they can afford to retire choose not to (At this point in time I'm unsure as to whether I will RE, however I am aiming for FI).

My understanding is that full on consumerism as we have it now only really started in the 1950's or so.  Yes before that people bought and sold things however the general populace could not afford a lot of things and items were not marketed to consumers quite as much.  So essentially the world would change, the population adapt, and life will go on.

As an example most people used to make their own clothes from patterns as it cost too much to have them pre-made (certainly one of the department stores in Australia had a good business going selling sewing patterns with the latest fashions from Europe).

odput

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An old MMM article on the subject:

http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/04/09/what-if-everyone-became-frugal/

Also, I know this topic has come up on the forum before, but I couldn't find it (read: didn't look that hard).  If you feel like diving through the archives, I think there was some good discussion on this topic

jpdcpajd

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It would survive but i did come across this interesting article on americans thinking regarding saving versus spending


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-21/keynesian-knightmare-us-savers-outnumber-spenders-record-numbers

bikebum

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It would survive but i did come across this interesting article on americans thinking regarding saving versus spending


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-21/keynesian-knightmare-us-savers-outnumber-spenders-record-numbers

I thinks it's important to remember the difference between saving and investing in this context. The poll in the article just asks people without defining what saving is. It seems to me when people argue that early retirement wouldn't work on a large scale, they forget that when you invest your money is still contributing to the economy.

2527

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Usually, low levels of consumption and low labor participation are associated with low education and low productivity in the third world.  But MMM mixes low levels of consumption with high levels of education and productivity.


franklin w. dixon

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The short answer to the question is "no" but there are a few different reasons why. Most people get the first order negative impact of reduced spending on the economy -- there will be fewer people making cars and selling Dippin Dots if there are fewer people buying those things. Typically the counterargument is that when people save they don't typically just hide currency in a pile; at the very least it is put into a bank account and then can be invested in the broader economy in the form of loans, or it is used to buy bonds and finance capital spending, or it's used to buy stocks of companies when they go public. The purchase of existing stocks is a slightly more confusing case because obviously for every buyer there is a seller, which could be someone selling in order to consume or in order to invest elsewhere; regardless, the argument is made that your money is out there doing something and therefore in the scheme of things high savings rates do not drag on the economy.

This is a shortsighted point of view, however. The whole reason passive investment is attractive/necessary in the first place is that central banks work very hard to ensure that there is a slow rate of inflation that eats up savings which are not invested. Otherwise, many more people would just keep their money in piles of physical currency or otherwise park it in the safest-possible vehicles which are the least liquid and the least useful to capital. Monetary policy thereby helps to ensure that savers will supply a sufficient amount of money to capital and as long as that quantity doesn't outpace the development of the productive forces it will recoup a real return.

But when savings do outpace the rise in labor productivity, the rate of labor exploitation, and/or the absolute size of the capitalist economy, several things can happen. The first is that the flood of money into investment vehicles causes their prices to rise and yields to fall; this is why Japanese 10-year government bonds yield only .6% even though Japanese government debt is self-evidently riskier than many other sovereign debts. The second is that a sustained decline in consumption can set off a deflationary spiral which central banks find it very difficult to escape (a deflationary spiral occurs when low consumption causes prices to fall, which encourages even lower consumption as savers realize that they can grow their buying power by just sitting on cash and waiting for it to increase in value). Third, the vague notion that savings will be turned into new loans depends on there existing consumers who want to borrow money, which is dubious in a hypothetical frugaltopia. In fact, a lack of demand for loans is also a giant obstacle to the present Japanese economy. In their case, the problem is principally demographic. As people get old they tend to have little use for loans on any terms because they are no longer interested in buying bigger houses or more cars -- i.e. they have become "frugal." So no matter how much stimulus money the Japanese government throws at markets or how attractive repayment terms are the so-called multiplier effect barely even registers.

Another example worth considering is the present no-holds-barred effort by the Chinese government to increase domestic consumption. China is not an old country demographically but like Japan savings rates there are extremely high -- as high as 30 or 40% in a country that is still quite poor. In the Chinese case, the principal drivers of savings are (1) housing prices which have inflated astronomically and demand enormous down payments, (2) a shabby healthcare system with high out of pocket costs, and (3) legal and social obligation on the part of children to provide for their elderly parents. So Chinese end up just heaping enormous mountains of RMB in the bank, where it sits earning below-inflation interest rates, because that's their only option. That's bad in the first place because it conflicts with national policy to transition to a consumer-oriented middle-income economy (and the failure of national policy in this area is domestically destabilizing), and in the second because China actually has the opposite loan problem that Japan does. Demand for loans is very high and so Chinese banks are just taking the money and throwing it all over everywhere giving any yahoo a loan to do any crazy old speculative thing, which in practice is further driving up housing prices and exacerbating the problem.

So under capitalist conditions, frugality (whether by informed choice or simply as a matter of biological aging) is economically disastrous.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2014, 07:50:37 PM by franklin w. dixon »

bikebum

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@ franklin

Sounds like you are assuming there is something special about the current amount of consumption. The economy adjusts to what people want to consume, not the other way around. I think a capitalist economy could do just fine under lower amounts of consumption. Sure investment returns would probably drop if everyone were frugal, but that doesn't mean it would be disastrous. As long as the world became frugal slowly (and that's how it would happen if it did) there would be time for the economy to adjust. The idea that there is some minimum level of consumption required to keep the economy from crashing is silly. At the extreme, if no one consumes, no one needs to work.


ChrisLansing

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Wouldn't wages/salaries increase due to labor needs?    If careers shorten to between 7 and 15 years (7 for high earners, 15 or maybe 20 for low earners) then there would be a need to replace these people frequently.   


NewStachian

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franklin,

Awesome post - obviously very well thought out. As with any question of this scale, there is never any way to know for certain what exactly would happen, especially since the entering question is vague. Are we saying everyone just becomes frugal regarding consumer items? Do people shift spending from convenience to things that make them happy so there is growth in other areas to offset the consumer spending decline? Are we assuming everyone is now trying to FIRE? What are we assuming people will start doing if everyone FIRE's? These are just a few of the thousands of questions that should be asked despite having no way to answer them.

I think this is on the order of "how would the world change if everyone became nice?" You would think it would obviously be much better, but again, there are too many variables to really know. When talking about fundamentally changing the mindset of billions of people in an intricately connected feedback loop with an uncountable number of connections, things get tricky.

But for the sake of having an entertaining conversation, and assuming you could brainwash people to actually want to be frugal, I think we would find that growth would stop and people would stop being able to use the 4% rule. We might find ourselves in that deflation spiral franklin mentioned, but people would be too frugal to spend money on anything. We would all eventually migrate to farms and grow our own crops and become self-sufficient. Innovation would completely die because nobody would be buying anything. Infrastructure would crumble and we'd be back in the early 19th century. We would all be much happier... until someone invades us and takes us over, strips us of our land, starts industry, has a revolution, and starts a consumer economy. But, by that point we'll realize... maybe we should just all be frugal instead...

obstinate

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> Wouldn't wages/salaries increase due to labor needs?

Yes, but that's the point. As wages increase, costs increase, it costs more to buy things, it becomes harder to have enough money to retire. Also, the thought experiment presumes that *everyone* does it. Even with very high productivity, the limit of economic activity as participants approaches zero is zero.

warfreak2

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Also, the thought experiment presumes that *everyone* does it. Even with very high productivity, the limit of economic activity as participants approaches zero is zero.
FIRE doesn't mean never working in your whole life. Even if everyone saved for 10 years and retired for 90, there would still be a bare minimum of ~10% of humans producing. (More or less, depending on if the population is growing or shrinking). Also, FIRE doesn't even mean never producing.

grantmeaname

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Or never consuming, for that matter. Retirees buy stuff just like everybody else does.

And "no consumer debt" is not equivalent to "no investment opportunities" - look at mortgages, corporate bonds and equities, government borrowings... I'd be willing to bet that consumer debt is a tiny slice of that pie, and it diminishing as more (or even all) people see the light does not mean that no investments would be available - just that no securitized credit card debt would be available. Well, so?

odput

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I think there is also some confusion of frugality with cheapness at play here too...frugalrich  people that love cooking will still spend money on things like high quality cookware and knives.  Frugal rich people that love rock climbing will still need to get their gear somewhere, and will pay to maintain climbing gyms, and a thousand other examples.  These items would retain their value while things like cable subscriptions would disappear and consumer electronics would deflate away until supply matched the smaller demand

MrFancypants

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Given that not everyone wants to retire early, I don't think this would be an issue.  There are people who do actually enjoy their jobs and are happy to continue plugging along even if they make enough to reach an early retirement.

curiousmind

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Hmm. What awesome group of thinkers we have here. @odput - thanks for the link again, I forgot that this was already visited by MMM himself!

grantmeaname

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There are a couple other old threads about it that you may be able to find with the search tool if you're interested, too. It's been maybe a year since somebody's brought this up but the older threads are at least a couple pages long and really good.

greaper007

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To quote Chuck Palahniuk.

"Imagine," Tyler said, "stalking elk past department store windows and stinking racks of beautiful rotting dresses and tuxedos on hangers; you'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life, and you'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower.  Jack and the beanstalk, you'll climb up through the dripping forest canopy and the air will be so clean you'll see tiny figures pounding corn and laying strips of venison to dry in the empty car pool lane of an abandoned superhighway stretching eight-lanes-wide and August-hot for a thousand miles."

Leisured

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As bikebum pointed out:  ‘The economy adjusts to what people want, not the other way around.’ Once WW2 was over, the economy adjusted to a steep decline in military spending.

There is a catch. The MMM lifestyle requires investment income at middle age, when the Mustachian has retired. John Keynes saw it differently in his legendary 1930 essay, The Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, where he envisaged, a century from 1930, people working to normal retirement age, but with a sharply reduced working week. The existing retirement provisions, at least for European type societies, will work as usual, but if people work, say, 20 hours a week, there is no need for the determined saving and investment required by the MMM lifestyle.

Some people will still save and invest, as usual, and just as well they do.