FIRE bloggers fizzling

[Buffaloski Boris]

What's wrong with VTSAX?

Uh-oh.  Now you've done it.  You've given me an excuse to go off on one of my favorite rants:

"Why I think VTSAX (and VTI and SWSTX, and FSKAX) Stink. A Rant ."

By Buffaloski Boris.

I should get the easy stuff out of the way. The US based stuff.  I don't think much of VTSAX and it's ilk because they're US equities in a time when I think that US equities are a poor deal.  US equities are expensive both on a historical scale and as compared to the stocks of other countries. But even if you get a rotten deal today, in the long term you'll probably get a reasonable return. Where I really start having the heartburn though is that as an American, investing in US equities serves to further concentrate my personal wealth in the US.  That's not a good thing.  To paraphrase, the only free lunch you get in investing is diversification.  And not only between companies but also asset classes and countries. I have waaaaay too much of my wealth in US denominated assets.  So, I tend to want to correct that.  And VTSAX is a US index.  Exposure to foreign assets and currencies is a feature, not a bug when you're looking for diversification.  While I don't think that the US dollar is going to be used as wallpaper anytime soon, it is seeing some slippage.  I also think that as we see things deglobalize, being the world reserve currency isn't going to be as advantageous.  Plus there is some level of political and tax risk in the US. Best to diversify out of it as best you can.  Further, I have some concern about where the US equities environment is going in the macro sense.  The number of publicly traded companies has been dropping hugely over the last 20 or so years. Companies going private, merging, going out of business, etc.  Companies that offer good investment opportunities are increasingly skipping going public, which means that as an investor I have access to fewer and fewer good investment opportunities. I'm not thrilled with the idea that I get to own whatever is left over once private equity has picked over the money making opportunities that are out there.   

Now for the more VTSAX specific stuff.  VTSAX is a market cap weighted index.  That means that your investment is allocated on a market cap basis over the 3500 or so stocks that make up the fund.  Sounds good.  Here's the problem: if you actually go take a look at the top 10 holdings for VTSAX, i.e. the US mega caps, they make up roughly 23.9% of the index.  That's what it says on their website.  If you look at the top 50 or so holdings, last I ran the math it was about 50% of the index.  So what you're buying when you buy this is the top 50 or so stocks, and an inconsequential amount of the remaining 3450 companies. That's not adequate diversification for me.  Further, you're buying the same shares in the same proportion that everyone else is.  Finally, investing in these mega caps adds a whole dimension of risk when you consider that antitrust rules outside the US aren't as toothlesss as they are in the US.

I realize that US large cap has done well the last several years, but as every investment prospectus says: performance data represents past performance, which is not a guarantee of future results. YMMV.

I love it! Do you have that saved somewhere and you just copy and paste it?

I mean, I heard JL Collins say all you need is VTSAX, so it must be true,right? (No, not in the book. It was on a recent podcast.)

Naaah. I figured it was time that I put all my objections to VTSAX together, so I just typed it out over lunch. Good idea though to just cut and paste it. Maybe I’ll start a topic on it. The problem is I’ve been beating the drum on it so long, folks will just dismiss it as Buffaloski ranting again. And they might be right!

I think most of JL’s advice is pretty good with the notable exception of where he suggests people throw their money. There are better, more diversified options out there. Why not a total world fund? Or one of the target retirement funds? Vanguard spends a whole lot of time and effort figuring out a good allocation on their target retirement funds. Why not use their very intelligent and expensive talent for almost free? I get that a lot of finance goes over people’s heads and a good answer that people will implement is better than a great answer that they don’t. But is it that much more difficult to plunk your money into say 2 or 3 funds or even just one different fund that offers more diversification?

[Much Fishing to Do]

What's wrong with VTSAX?

Uh-oh.  Now you've done it.  You've given me an excuse to go off on one of my favorite rants:

"Why I think VTSAX (and VTI and SWSTX, and FSKAX) Stink. A Rant ."

By Buffaloski Boris.

I should get the easy stuff out of the way. The US based stuff.  I don't think much of VTSAX and it's ilk because they're US equities in a time when I think that US equities are a poor deal.  US equities are expensive both on a historical scale and as compared to the stocks of other countries. But even if you get a rotten deal today, in the long term you'll probably get a reasonable return. Where I really start having the heartburn though is that as an American, investing in US equities serves to further concentrate my personal wealth in the US.  That's not a good thing.  To paraphrase, the only free lunch you get in investing is diversification.  And not only between companies but also asset classes and countries. I have waaaaay too much of my wealth in US denominated assets.  So, I tend to want to correct that.  And VTSAX is a US index.  Exposure to foreign assets and currencies is a feature, not a bug when you're looking for diversification.  While I don't think that the US dollar is going to be used as wallpaper anytime soon, it is seeing some slippage.  I also think that as we see things deglobalize, being the world reserve currency isn't going to be as advantageous.  Plus there is some level of political and tax risk in the US. Best to diversify out of it as best you can.  Further, I have some concern about where the US equities environment is going in the macro sense.  The number of publicly traded companies has been dropping hugely over the last 20 or so years. Companies going private, merging, going out of business, etc.  Companies that offer good investment opportunities are increasingly skipping going public, which means that as an investor I have access to fewer and fewer good investment opportunities. I'm not thrilled with the idea that I get to own whatever is left over once private equity has picked over the money making opportunities that are out there.   

Now for the more VTSAX specific stuff.  VTSAX is a market cap weighted index.  That means that your investment is allocated on a market cap basis over the 3500 or so stocks that make up the fund.  Sounds good.  Here's the problem: if you actually go take a look at the top 10 holdings for VTSAX, i.e. the US mega caps, they make up roughly 23.9% of the index.  That's what it says on their website.  If you look at the top 50 or so holdings, last I ran the math it was about 50% of the index.  So what you're buying when you buy this is the top 50 or so stocks, and an inconsequential amount of the remaining 3450 companies. That's not adequate diversification for me.  Further, you're buying the same shares in the same proportion that everyone else is.  Finally, investing in these mega caps adds a whole dimension of risk when you consider that antitrust rules outside the US aren't as toothlesss as they are in the US.

I realize that US large cap has done well the last several years, but as every investment prospectus says: performance data represents past performance, which is not a guarantee of future results. YMMV.

I completely agree with all of this and that's why the past decade I've diversified to whole world and included much more middle and small cap.

Of course, that's cost me about a half-million over just doing VTSAX, but I'm gonna go with the fact I'll eventually be paid off for being right.... ;-)

[tooqk4u22]

What's wrong with VTSAX?

Uh-oh.  Now you've done it.  You've given me an excuse to go off on one of my favorite rants:

"Why I think VTSAX (and VTI and SWSTX, and FSKAX) Stink. A Rant ."

By Buffaloski Boris.

I should get the easy stuff out of the way. The US based stuff.  I don't think much of VTSAX and it's ilk because they're US equities in a time when I think that US equities are a poor deal.  US equities are expensive both on a historical scale and as compared to the stocks of other countries. But even if you get a rotten deal today, in the long term you'll probably get a reasonable return. Where I really start having the heartburn though is that as an American, investing in US equities serves to further concentrate my personal wealth in the US.  That's not a good thing.  To paraphrase, the only free lunch you get in investing is diversification.  And not only between companies but also asset classes and countries. I have waaaaay too much of my wealth in US denominated assets.  So, I tend to want to correct that.  And VTSAX is a US index.  Exposure to foreign assets and currencies is a feature, not a bug when you're looking for diversification.  While I don't think that the US dollar is going to be used as wallpaper anytime soon, it is seeing some slippage.  I also think that as we see things deglobalize, being the world reserve currency isn't going to be as advantageous.  Plus there is some level of political and tax risk in the US. Best to diversify out of it as best you can.  Further, I have some concern about where the US equities environment is going in the macro sense.  The number of publicly traded companies has been dropping hugely over the last 20 or so years. Companies going private, merging, going out of business, etc.  Companies that offer good investment opportunities are increasingly skipping going public, which means that as an investor I have access to fewer and fewer good investment opportunities. I'm not thrilled with the idea that I get to own whatever is left over once private equity has picked over the money making opportunities that are out there.   

Now for the more VTSAX specific stuff.  VTSAX is a market cap weighted index.  That means that your investment is allocated on a market cap basis over the 3500 or so stocks that make up the fund.  Sounds good.  Here's the problem: if you actually go take a look at the top 10 holdings for VTSAX, i.e. the US mega caps, they make up roughly 23.9% of the index.  That's what it says on their website.  If you look at the top 50 or so holdings, last I ran the math it was about 50% of the index.  So what you're buying when you buy this is the top 50 or so stocks, and an inconsequential amount of the remaining 3450 companies. That's not adequate diversification for me.  Further, you're buying the same shares in the same proportion that everyone else is.  Finally, investing in these mega caps adds a whole dimension of risk when you consider that antitrust rules outside the US aren't as toothlesss as they are in the US.

I realize that US large cap has done well the last several years, but as every investment prospectus says: performance data represents past performance, which is not a guarantee of future results. YMMV.

I love it! Do you have that saved somewhere and you just copy and paste it?

I mean, I heard JL Collins say all you need is VTSAX, so it must be true,right? (No, not in the book. It was on a recent podcast.)

Naaah. I figured it was time that I put all my objections to VTSAX together, so I just typed it out over lunch. Good idea though to just cut and paste it. Maybe I’ll start a topic on it. The problem is I’ve been beating the drum on it so long, folks will just dismiss it as Buffaloski ranting again. And they might be right!

I think most of JL’s advice is pretty good with the notable exception of where he suggests people throw their money. There are better, more diversified options out there. Why not a total world fund? Or one of the target retirement funds? Vanguard spends a whole lot of time and effort figuring out a good allocation on their target retirement funds. Why not use their very intelligent and expensive talent for almost free? I get that a lot of finance goes over people’s heads and a good answer that people will implement is better than a great answer that they don’t. But is it that much more difficult to plunk your money into say 2 or 3 funds or even just one different fund that offers more diversification?

I do believe in diversification (including with some AA to bonds/cash).  And yes at the moment I too feel the markets are frothy, or I should say the big tech that is driving the markets is given that the rest of the market isn't participating so much.  But the one thing you are missing is that VTI picks up everything.  Sure, the top 50 account for 50% but where was TSLA, AMZN, Visa, Google, Netflix, etc 10, 15, or 20 years ago.   Would you have known or thought they would be in the top?  I don't know what the future holds but even the little ones might not be so little one day. 

[Chris@TTL]

But the one thing you are missing is that VTI picks up everything.

@tooqk4u22 I think that the point @Buffaloski Boris is making is that VTSAX (and VTI, the ETF version of VTSAX) do not "pick up everything".

It's a total US market fund.

And of course, it's just stocks--no bonds.

It's reasonable to make an argument that VTSAX/VTI include international exposure by the nature of the companies in the US market being exposed heavily to international economies, but @Buffaloski Boris is suggesting that this might change. There could be "deglobalization" as he put it.

I'm not really saying I agree (or disagree!), but I also wouldn't advocate for putting your entire retirement fund in VTSAX and calling it quits. Even the original Trinity Study called for some mix of bonds to produce better results than a stock-only portfolio.

[LWYRUP]

So I agree on the foreign component.  I historically held like 60/40 US/foreign for that reason.  (Note foreign has slightly higher expense ratios and slightly more tax drag, but not high enough to really make a difference.)

I agree on the valuations.  I recently switched to 50/50 US/foreign for that reason.

In theory I'd like more bonds but yields are so terrible it's hard to justify a big allocation. 

I am too lazy / skeptical to try crypto / gold / commodities / private equity / whatever.  If I am going to invest in something like that, I'd need to research it.  And research is work.  And if I am going to work, I can probably allocate my time in more effective ways. 

I haven't really thought of the market cap issue before.  I guess I'd say I think of hundreds of top companies as still pretty diversified, and so the question would really be whether we think there will be any significant performance issues going forward such that large vs. small caps can really be though of as separate asset classes.  I know many of the bogleheads love their small cap value, but it seems to me like if everyone is screaming "look there's a dollar on the ground" then it's going to disappear, or maybe already has?

I'll admit I'm slightly at a loss at how to invest right now with valuations and bond yields where they are.  I have been considering going overweight emerging markets and adding more bonds even though it sucks.  So maybe 30% USA, 30% foreign developed, 15% emerging, 15% bonds?  I had over 50% of my money in US equities for many years and it's been great but I'm a bit leery of the downside risk of just keeping that strategy going. 

[tooqk4u22]

But the one thing you are missing is that VTI picks up everything.

@tooqk4u22 I think that the point @Buffaloski Boris is making is that VTSAX (and VTI, the ETF version of VTSAX) do not "pick up everything".

It's a total US market fund.

And of course, it's just stocks--no bonds.

It's reasonable to make an argument that VTSAX/VTI include international exposure by the nature of the companies in the US market being exposed heavily to international economies, but @Buffaloski Boris is suggesting that this might change. There could be "deglobalization" as he put it.

I'm not really saying I agree (or disagree!), but I also wouldn't advocate for putting your entire retirement fund in VTSAX and calling it quits. Even the original Trinity Study called for some mix of bonds to produce better results than a stock-only portfolio.

First that's an AA argument, not a what's wrong with VTSAX one (and yes I know its a US fund). Second, BB did say that one of his issues was concentration, which is really the point I was contending. 

All those "Big American Companies" that get a lot, maybe half, of their revenue from foreign countries that could "deglobalize" then I suspect the same would be true for all those "Big Foreign Companies" would it not?

The foreign counterpart is VXUS, but like someone else said it has underperformed for like forever mainly bc outside of EM/China there is no to negative growth.   I still have some of it though, just waiting for that regression to the mean.....unfortunately I think that will come from VTSAX going down instead of VXUS going up - just nothing positive in Europe, Japan and other developed nations.  A lot of the negative is really due to population declines, poor business environments that stymie innovation and risk/return, and to a less extent corruption and unstable governments. 

[tooqk4u22]

So I agree on the foreign component.  I historically held like 60/40 US/foreign for that reason.  (Note foreign has slightly higher expense ratios and slightly more tax drag, but not high enough to really make a difference.)

I agree on the valuations.  I recently switched to 50/50 US/foreign for that reason.

In theory I'd like more bonds but yields are so terrible it's hard to justify a big allocation. 

I am too lazy / skeptical to try crypto / gold / commodities / private equity / whatever.  If I am going to invest in something like that, I'd need to research it.  And research is work.  And if I am going to work, I can probably allocate my time in more effective ways. 

I haven't really thought of the market cap issue before.  I guess I'd say I think of hundreds of top companies as still pretty diversified, and so the question would really be whether we think there will be any significant performance issues going forward such that large vs. small caps can really be though of as separate asset classes.  I know many of the bogleheads love their small cap value, but it seems to me like if everyone is screaming "look there's a dollar on the ground" then it's going to disappear, or maybe already has?

I'll admit I'm slightly at a loss at how to invest right now with valuations and bond yields where they are.  I have been considering going overweight emerging markets and adding more bonds even though it sucks.  So maybe 30% USA, 30% foreign developed, 15% emerging, 15% bonds?  I had over 50% of my money in US equities for many years and it's been great but I'm a bit leery of the downside risk of just keeping that strategy going.

Its really tough, the FED and other central banks are fucking everyone (but us rich people) and that is leading to even worse inequality and problems and more volatility (the piper will need to be paid at some point).   I would rather, the FED had more reasonable approach even  at the expense of some of my portfolio if the tradeoff is increased stability and more breadth of participation.   

[Buffaloski Boris]

I figure this is a good chart to bring into the discussion. It shows which asset classes perform best to worst earache year. If you look carefully you can see the trend....

[Travis]

I think most of JL’s advice is pretty good with the notable exception of where he suggests people throw their money. There are better, more diversified options out there. Why not a total world fund? Or one of the target retirement funds? Vanguard spends a whole lot of time and effort figuring out a good allocation on their target retirement funds. Why not use their very intelligent and expensive talent for almost free? I get that a lot of finance goes over people’s heads and a good answer that people will implement is better than a great answer that they don’t. But is it that much more difficult to plunk your money into say 2 or 3 funds or even just one different fund that offers more diversification?

I think Collins has said something good about the Total World Fund, but objected that its ER is still a bit high compared to the potential benefit.

He likes VTSAX precisely because it's one fund and "good enough."  If you want to get lost in a sea of comments, make a visit to Bogleheads and see just how far down the rabbit hole folks can go discussing three-fund portfolios.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Not sure if there is another thread about this, but I'm noticing that many FIRE bloggers are posting less, commenting on how their incomes are crumbling, and some of the smaller ones have closed shop entirely.  Most prominently, FINcon has pretty much imploded.  I guess it will be back with someone new at the helm in 2021?  But for blogs that I used to follow -

MMM hardly ever posts anymore.  Same with RootofGood, 1500days, and GoCurryCracker. 

RetireBy40 is showing a monthly income drop on his blog from $6k to $950

The Frugal Engineers seem to have vanished entirely...  Mr Crazy Kicks last posted over a year ago...

Any other observations on how the FIRE blogosphere has changed this year?

Mr 1500 has been posting pretty regularly

Ewww, just went to Mr. 1500's site to check it out and got a pop up ad!  WTF?  Looks like his net worth update has him rolling in it, so what's up with that?

The other thing about Mr. 1500 that bothers me, is that he owns a Trailer Park and is a mutimillionaire FIRE blogger.  Racing past the 3M milestone while his wife works and he's raking it on TSLA, and his tenants are probably unemployed and shaking in their boots about how they can afford getting sick.  Talk about sticking it to 'em, obviously they have to pay for his ER success.  The pop up ads were just the final straw on what I think about so called FIRE bloggers!

[Bloop Bloop]

What does the landlord being a multimillionaire have to do with tenants?

The tenant is responsible for paying rent.

[DadJokes]

Not sure if there is another thread about this, but I'm noticing that many FIRE bloggers are posting less, commenting on how their incomes are crumbling, and some of the smaller ones have closed shop entirely.  Most prominently, FINcon has pretty much imploded.  I guess it will be back with someone new at the helm in 2021?  But for blogs that I used to follow -

MMM hardly ever posts anymore.  Same with RootofGood, 1500days, and GoCurryCracker. 

RetireBy40 is showing a monthly income drop on his blog from $6k to $950

The Frugal Engineers seem to have vanished entirely...  Mr Crazy Kicks last posted over a year ago...

Any other observations on how the FIRE blogosphere has changed this year?

Mr 1500 has been posting pretty regularly

Ewww, just went to Mr. 1500's site to check it out and got a pop up ad!  WTF?  Looks like his net worth update has him rolling in it, so what's up with that?

The other thing about Mr. 1500 that bothers me, is that he owns a Trailer Park and is a mutimillionaire FIRE blogger.  Racing past the 3M milestone while his wife works and he's raking it on TSLA, and his tenants are probably unemployed and shaking in their boots about how they can afford getting sick.  Talk about sticking it to 'em, obviously they have to pay for his ER success.  The pop up ads were just the final straw on what I think about so called FIRE bloggers!

This seems very presumptuous.

Since when is being a landlord a bad thing? The moment you become a multi-millionaire?

[chasesfish]

I also don't understand the distain for the 1500's, but I'm a bit biased having met them.

They were always into slow flipping real estate, retired, then ended up connecting with the Bigger Pockets folks.  I'm pretty sure the trailer park venture(s) is led by Brandon Turner.

Providing housing to low income individuals shouldn't be controversial, but to each his own

[rantk81]

Circling back to the main topic....
I used to follow this blog a lot: https://livingafi.com/
But it hasn't seen an update in years. Does anyone know how he's doing?

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Not sure if there is another thread about this, but I'm noticing that many FIRE bloggers are posting less, commenting on how their incomes are crumbling, and some of the smaller ones have closed shop entirely.  Most prominently, FINcon has pretty much imploded.  I guess it will be back with someone new at the helm in 2021?  But for blogs that I used to follow -

MMM hardly ever posts anymore.  Same with RootofGood, 1500days, and GoCurryCracker. 

RetireBy40 is showing a monthly income drop on his blog from $6k to $950

The Frugal Engineers seem to have vanished entirely...  Mr Crazy Kicks last posted over a year ago...

Any other observations on how the FIRE blogosphere has changed this year?

Mr 1500 has been posting pretty regularly

Ewww, just went to Mr. 1500's site to check it out and got a pop up ad!  WTF?  Looks like his net worth update has him rolling in it, so what's up with that?

The other thing about Mr. 1500 that bothers me, is that he owns a Trailer Park and is a mutimillionaire FIRE blogger.  Racing past the 3M milestone while his wife works and he's raking it on TSLA, and his tenants are probably unemployed and shaking in their boots about how they can afford getting sick.  Talk about sticking it to 'em, obviously they have to pay for his ER success.  The pop up ads were just the final straw on what I think about so called FIRE bloggers!

This seems very presumptuous.

Since when is being a landlord a bad thing? The moment you become a multi-millionaire?

I guess I look at it from my financially comfortable perspective - I don't need income from people who are typically in very shaky financial shape.  I'd be too soft-hearted, if any of my tenants came down with an illness or financial hardship, to demand on-time payment.  I'm already trying to figure out philanthropic strategies to best use the excess I'm blessed with - owning a trailer park would cause too much cognitive dissonance.

On the other hand, nothing wrong with being a landlord in general.  I've happily rented apartments and appreciate that there are good landlords and rental properties.  It's the predatory trailer park landlords that I take issue with.  It's up there with payday loan sharks, if you're not familiar with the industry. 

[DadJokes]

Not sure if there is another thread about this, but I'm noticing that many FIRE bloggers are posting less, commenting on how their incomes are crumbling, and some of the smaller ones have closed shop entirely.  Most prominently, FINcon has pretty much imploded.  I guess it will be back with someone new at the helm in 2021?  But for blogs that I used to follow -

MMM hardly ever posts anymore.  Same with RootofGood, 1500days, and GoCurryCracker. 

RetireBy40 is showing a monthly income drop on his blog from $6k to $950

The Frugal Engineers seem to have vanished entirely...  Mr Crazy Kicks last posted over a year ago...

Any other observations on how the FIRE blogosphere has changed this year?

Mr 1500 has been posting pretty regularly

Ewww, just went to Mr. 1500's site to check it out and got a pop up ad!  WTF?  Looks like his net worth update has him rolling in it, so what's up with that?

The other thing about Mr. 1500 that bothers me, is that he owns a Trailer Park and is a mutimillionaire FIRE blogger.  Racing past the 3M milestone while his wife works and he's raking it on TSLA, and his tenants are probably unemployed and shaking in their boots about how they can afford getting sick.  Talk about sticking it to 'em, obviously they have to pay for his ER success.  The pop up ads were just the final straw on what I think about so called FIRE bloggers!

This seems very presumptuous.

Since when is being a landlord a bad thing? The moment you become a multi-millionaire?

I guess I look at it from my financially comfortable perspective - I don't need income from people who are typically in very shaky financial shape.  I'd be too soft-hearted, if any of my tenants came down with an illness or financial hardship, to demand on-time payment.  I'm already trying to figure out philanthropic strategies to best use the excess I'm blessed with - owning a trailer park would cause too much cognitive dissonance.

On the other hand, nothing wrong with being a landlord in general.  I've happily rented apartments and appreciate that there are good landlords and rental properties.  It's the predatory trailer park landlords that I take issue with.  It's up there with payday loan sharks, if you're not familiar with the industry.

Are you assuming that it's predatory just because it's a trailer park, or has he said on his blog that he is evicting people immediately if they are struggling? I'm sure that, like in every industry, there are good and bad actors.

Without really knowing much about him, your posts seem to come across as very...wealth-shaming-y.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Are you assuming that it's predatory just because it's a trailer park, or has he said on his blog that he is evicting people immediately if they are struggling? I'm sure that, like in every industry, there are good and bad actors.

Without really knowing much about him, your posts seem to come across as very...wealth-shaming-y.

In the link, he complains that the trailer park is not performing well financially - which generally means people aren't paying their rent. 

He put in his lot with other investors who came across, to me, as predatory working in a predatory industry (trailer park tenants don't own the land that their rented trailer is on, and can never buy it, along with being charged absurd borrowing rates and fees).  He doesn't go in to detail about evictions, but it's a good assumption that's what the active investors are doing to improve ROI.  Either way, if he's participating in the industry, I assume he's part of the problem unless he tells us he is providing forbearance, specifically helping tenants, or gives us any information otherwise.

I'm not shaming him because of his wealth, I'm shaming him for complaining about not making enough money off of his trailer park investment which likely is because those people are financially destitute.

Just glad I'm not part of the industry myself and I think that whole line of business needs reform.  Likewise, although they are great investments, I'll never be part of payday lending.

[slappy]

Are you assuming that it's predatory just because it's a trailer park, or has he said on his blog that he is evicting people immediately if they are struggling? I'm sure that, like in every industry, there are good and bad actors.

Without really knowing much about him, your posts seem to come across as very...wealth-shaming-y.

In the link, he complains that the trailer park is not performing well financially - which generally means people aren't paying their rent. 

He put in his lot with other investors who came across, to me, as predatory working in a predatory industry (trailer park tenants don't own the land that their rented trailer is on, and can never buy it, along with being charged absurd borrowing rates and fees).  He doesn't go in to detail about evictions, but it's a good assumption that's what the active investors are doing to improve ROI.  Either way, if he's participating in the industry, I assume he's part of the problem unless he tells us he is providing forbearance, specifically helping tenants, or gives us any information otherwise.

I'm not shaming him because of his wealth, I'm shaming him for complaining about not making enough money off of his trailer park investment which likely is because those people are financially destitute.

Just glad I'm not part of the industry myself and I think that whole line of business needs reform.  Likewise, although they are great investments, I'll never be part of payday lending.

But if you were part of the industry, couldn't you facilitate change? Or at least make a difference in the lives of your tenants? I had a tenant with a baby once and I passed on all the free samples of formula I received for my kids. She was always so happy because those small cans add up. One time she was she said I saved her $30 on formula. I'm sure it's not life changing, but its just something small that you can do. Plus it's $30 more that she can spend on rent instead of formula. ;)

I don't have a rental property anymore, and I'm pretty sure I wouldn't be a good long term landlord, because I'd be too softhearted.

[DadJokes]

Are you assuming that it's predatory just because it's a trailer park, or has he said on his blog that he is evicting people immediately if they are struggling? I'm sure that, like in every industry, there are good and bad actors.

Without really knowing much about him, your posts seem to come across as very...wealth-shaming-y.

In the link, he complains that the trailer park is not performing well financially - which generally means people aren't paying their rent. 

He put in his lot with other investors who came across, to me, as predatory working in a predatory industry (trailer park tenants don't own the land that their rented trailer is on, and can never buy it, along with being charged absurd borrowing rates and fees).  He doesn't go in to detail about evictions, but it's a good assumption that's what the active investors are doing to improve ROI.  Either way, if he's participating in the industry, I assume he's part of the problem unless he tells us he is providing forbearance, specifically helping tenants, or gives us any information otherwise.

I'm not shaming him because of his wealth, I'm shaming him for complaining about not making enough money off of his trailer park investment which likely is because those people are financially destitute.

Just glad I'm not part of the industry myself and I think that whole line of business needs reform.  Likewise, although they are great investments, I'll never be part of payday lending.

Noting lack of returns due to the pandemic on the internet is pretty different than kicking sick people out.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Are you assuming that it's predatory just because it's a trailer park, or has he said on his blog that he is evicting people immediately if they are struggling? I'm sure that, like in every industry, there are good and bad actors.

Without really knowing much about him, your posts seem to come across as very...wealth-shaming-y.

In the link, he complains that the trailer park is not performing well financially - which generally means people aren't paying their rent. 

He put in his lot with other investors who came across, to me, as predatory working in a predatory industry (trailer park tenants don't own the land that their rented trailer is on, and can never buy it, along with being charged absurd borrowing rates and fees).  He doesn't go in to detail about evictions, but it's a good assumption that's what the active investors are doing to improve ROI.  Either way, if he's participating in the industry, I assume he's part of the problem unless he tells us he is providing forbearance, specifically helping tenants, or gives us any information otherwise.

I'm not shaming him because of his wealth, I'm shaming him for complaining about not making enough money off of his trailer park investment which likely is because those people are financially destitute.

Just glad I'm not part of the industry myself and I think that whole line of business needs reform.  Likewise, although they are great investments, I'll never be part of payday lending.

Noting lack of returns due to the pandemic on the internet is pretty different than kicking sick people out.

Getting more meta than just continuing this discussion, what I've realized is that reading his blog this last time has left me worse off than if I just ignored the sparse posts.  I only looked at it because someone said Mr. 1500 had posted, and these 'checking in' posts are not valuable to me - as this demonstrated.  I used to get inspiration and new ideas from some of these folks, but not so lately...

[Bloop Bloop]

Are you assuming that it's predatory just because it's a trailer park, or has he said on his blog that he is evicting people immediately if they are struggling? I'm sure that, like in every industry, there are good and bad actors.

Without really knowing much about him, your posts seem to come across as very...wealth-shaming-y.

In the link, he complains that the trailer park is not performing well financially - which generally means people aren't paying their rent. 

He put in his lot with other investors who came across, to me, as predatory working in a predatory industry (trailer park tenants don't own the land that their rented trailer is on, and can never buy it, along with being charged absurd borrowing rates and fees).  He doesn't go in to detail about evictions, but it's a good assumption that's what the active investors are doing to improve ROI.  Either way, if he's participating in the industry, I assume he's part of the problem unless he tells us he is providing forbearance, specifically helping tenants, or gives us any information otherwise.

I'm not shaming him because of his wealth, I'm shaming him for complaining about not making enough money off of his trailer park investment which likely is because those people are financially destitute.

Just glad I'm not part of the industry myself and I think that whole line of business needs reform.  Likewise, although they are great investments, I'll never be part of payday lending.

He's providing a service to people with probably very bad credit, same as payday lenders. As a landlord I wouldn't touch those tenants with a 10 foot pole. The people who do can be expected to charge higher fees than would otherwise be market standard. Simply because you have to price in the income lost to defaults, late rent, etc.

[FireLane]

Circling back to the main topic....
I used to follow this blog a lot: https://livingafi.com/
But it hasn't seen an update in years. Does anyone know how he's doing?

Dr. Doom has been MIA since he FIREd. I really liked his blog and his posts here but he did have a lot of emotional angst about FIRE and it would be nice to hear if his worry was justified or not. One of the reasons I like the post-FIRE blogger better then the pre-FIRE ones is that you get to see if their FIRE lives (especially the RE part) turned out as they imagined and what things happened (or didn't) to change their FIRE plans.

I really liked @Dr. Doom's blog. I still reread it from time to time.

IMO, his writing was a better deep dive into the psychology of FIRE than any other blogger: why work is degrading to the soul, how to switch your mindset from spending to saving, the process of actually making the decision to quit, and how retirement improved his mood and brightened his view of the world.

I understand if he feels like he doesn't have anything more to say, but I'd sure like to hear from him and find out how he's doing now!

[Dicey]

Not sure if there is another thread about this, but I'm noticing that many FIRE bloggers are posting less, commenting on how their incomes are crumbling, and some of the smaller ones have closed shop entirely.  Most prominently, FINcon has pretty much imploded.  I guess it will be back with someone new at the helm in 2021?  But for blogs that I used to follow -

MMM hardly ever posts anymore.  Same with RootofGood, 1500days, and GoCurryCracker. 

RetireBy40 is showing a monthly income drop on his blog from $6k to $950

The Frugal Engineers seem to have vanished entirely...  Mr Crazy Kicks last posted over a year ago...

Any other observations on how the FIRE blogosphere has changed this year?

Mr 1500 has been posting pretty regularly

Ewww, just went to Mr. 1500's site to check it out and got a pop up ad!  WTF?  Looks like his net worth update has him rolling in it, so what's up with that?

The other thing about Mr. 1500 that bothers me, is that he owns a fraction of a Trailer Park and is a mutimillionaire who is also a FIRE blogger.  Racing past the 3M milestone while his wife works and he's raking it on TSLA, and his tenants are probably unemployed and shaking in their boots about how they can afford getting sick.  Talk about sticking it to 'em, obviously they have to pay for his ER success.  The pop up ads were just the final straw on what I think about so called FIRE bloggers!

I don't follow Mr. 1500's blog, but I decided to have a look, based on these comments. While I do not disagree with the assessment of the tenant's potential state of mind during this pandemic, it is clear that in the USA, in the time of pandemic, fear getting sick is not limited to people who reside in trailer parks...FWIW, my parents owned a very old trailer in a very old trailer park for 30 years. It brought them a lot of happiness. They were none of the things described above.

Blaming a PF blogger who owns a very small interest in a single park for the perceived financial woes of every tenant within is a stretch. Hell, there's plenty of stuff in VTSAX that a lot of us don't fully support (tobacco, for example), yet we mustachians own shitloads of it. Why? Because it makes us more money. What is the difference, really?

It doesn't look like blogging about FIRE made him a millionaire. Nor does it look like investing in a trailer pakt was instrumental in his achievement of FI and RE. Further, where is it written that once a person achieves FIRE they must work for free? No one has to look at the ads or ever cross the threshold of his (or any blogger's) site if they don't want to.

A lot to think about, for sure.

[AO1FireTo]

Not sure if there is another thread about this, but I'm noticing that many FIRE bloggers are posting less, commenting on how their incomes are crumbling, and some of the smaller ones have closed shop entirely.  Most prominently, FINcon has pretty much imploded.  I guess it will be back with someone new at the helm in 2021?  But for blogs that I used to follow -

MMM hardly ever posts anymore.  Same with RootofGood, 1500days, and GoCurryCracker. 

RetireBy40 is showing a monthly income drop on his blog from $6k to $950

The Frugal Engineers seem to have vanished entirely...  Mr Crazy Kicks last posted over a year ago...

Any other observations on how the FIRE blogosphere has changed this year?

Mr 1500 has been posting pretty regularly

Ewww, just went to Mr. 1500's site to check it out and got a pop up ad!  WTF?  Looks like his net worth update has him rolling in it, so what's up with that?

The other thing about Mr. 1500 that bothers me, is that he owns a fraction of a Trailer Park and is a mutimillionaire who is also a FIRE blogger.  Racing past the 3M milestone while his wife works and he's raking it on TSLA, and his tenants are probably unemployed and shaking in their boots about how they can afford getting sick.  Talk about sticking it to 'em, obviously they have to pay for his ER success.  The pop up ads were just the final straw on what I think about so called FIRE bloggers!

I don't follow Mr. 1500's blog, but I decided to have a look, based on these comments. While I do not disagree with the assessment of the tenant's potential state of mind during this pandemic, it is clear that in the USA, in the time of pandemic, fear getting sick is not limited to people who reside in trailer parks...FWIW, my parents owned a very old trailer in a very old trailer park for 30 years. It brought them a lot of happiness. They were none of the things described above.

Blaming a PF blogger who owns a very small interest in a single park for the perceived financial woes of every tenant within is a stretch. Hell, there's plenty of stuff in VTSAX that a lot of us don't fully support (tobacco, for example), yet we mustachians own shitloads of it. Why? Because it makes us more money. What is the difference, really?

It doesn't look like blogging about FIRE made him a millionaire. Nor does it look like investing in a trailer pakt was instrumental in his achievement of FI and RE. Further, where is it written that once a person achieves FIRE they must work for free? No one has to look at the ads or ever cross the threshold of his (or any blogger's) site if they don't want to.

A lot to think about, for sure.

+1 1500days is very upfront about all of this.  I have no problem with what he does.  The ads don't bother me either.

[FireLane]

Word was that he went back to working full time but that may not be true. If it is then I think it would be valuable for him to talk about why. FIRE doesn't always work out for various reasons (The @FIERy Millennial blogger can testify to that), or the reality doesn't match the dream, and it would be helpful to FIRE-wannabes to hear about potential downsides.

Oh, interesting. Where did you hear that?

Given how well the market has performed since he retired in 2015, I wouldn't think that he'd have a pressing financial reason to return to work. But maybe he wanted to upgrade his lifestyle or found his life lacking in some other way.

Either way, I agree I'd be interested to hear about any possible downsides of FIRE. Coming from a seasoned veteran who's been living that way for several years, it would be an especially valuable perspective.

[chasesfish]

I'd also love to hear the downsides of pursuing FIRE...because the FI piece is really nice, even if I end up with enough income to send the Internet Retirement Police after me on the RE side of FIRE

[SugarMountain]

Circling back to the main topic....
I used to follow this blog a lot: https://livingafi.com/
But it hasn't seen an update in years. Does anyone know how he's doing?

Dr. Doom has been MIA since he FIREd. I really liked his blog and his posts here but he did have a lot of emotional angst about FIRE and it would be nice to hear if his worry was justified or not. One of the reasons I like the post-FIRE blogger better then the pre-FIRE ones is that you get to see if their FIRE lives (especially the RE part) turned out as they imagined and what things happened (or didn't) to change their FIRE plans.

I really liked @Dr. Doom's blog. I still reread it from time to time.

IMO, his writing was a better deep dive into the psychology of FIRE than any other blogger: why work is degrading to the soul, how to switch your mindset from spending to saving, the process of actually making the decision to quit, and how retirement improved his mood and brightened his view of the world.

I understand if he feels like he doesn't have anything more to say, but I'd sure like to hear from him and find out how he's doing now!

Word was that he went back to working full time but that may not be true. If it is then I think it would be valuable for him to talk about why. FIRE doesn't always work out for various reasons (The @FIERy Millennial blogger can testify to that), or the reality doesn't match the dream, and it would be helpful to FIRE-wannabes to hear about potential downsides.

Interesting.  He was young enough he and his wife may have decided to have kids.  Or after a few years he discovered he was bored.  I really enjoyed his blog, and felt like he was writing exactly what I was feeling in the midlife fisis series, so I hope whatever he's doing he's finding it fulfilling.  He was a really good writer, so maybe something in that arena instead of software.

[Zoot]

I'm not sure but maybe here. I don't think it because of financial reasons but maybe he didn't find the RE part of FIRE as satisfactory as he thought he would. Just speculating though but that is often a fairly common complaint I've heard by others pist-FIRE. Boredom,  not as engaged in things as they thought they'd be, not enough challenges, etc.

I do remember hearing this about Jacob Lund Fisker (i.e., that he went back to work, either after finding the RE part not to his liking or getting a job offer that was too good to pass up or both), but I've never heard it in connection with Dr. Doom.  Would love to know if it is true of him, too--I absolutely LOVED his blog as soon as I discovered it and was both happy (for him) and sad (for all the rest of us) when he stopped updating.

If you do remember where you heard or find any more info, let us know--would love to hear how he's doing and what he's up to!  I think it's important for us to hear about the various trajectories of those who do manage to break through the FIRE barrier.

Maybe if we bat-signal him, he'll come 'round to tell his story.  Hey, @Dr. Doom--wanna give us an update?

[bacchi]

I heard that about Jacob too but again don t know the source so ...fake news maybe! Also the last post Dr. Doom did was April 1st 2016 about how FIRE sucked and he missed working so maybe someone took that joke as real. I don't think he posted in over 4 years. Perhaps he is, in reality, Batman out fighting crime and too busy to blog. I guess that's going back to work. Or maybe just a side gig for the ER set.

Jacob blogged about his Chicago quant job. It did sound pretty cool if it truly had the autonomy he was promised.

Dr. Doom briefly responded in the comments for his blog as recently as 2018:

Sqkywheel says:   
March 20, 2018 at 11:19 am   

He is back! He does podcasts and twitter. Just not this blog any more.
Reply   

    livafi says:   
    March 22, 2018 at 6:38 pm   

    Not true.

[rantk81]

Well, if he wants to stay out of the spotlight and silently sail off into the FIRE sunset, I can respect that... But I still have my own curiosities on how things ended up :)

[toocold]

Does anybody find the irony of posting about fizzling FIRE blogs on a forum of a FIRE blogger?

There are many RE folks at the early retirement forum, if you are curious about post-FIRE (good and bad), non-blogger types.  As you can imagine it skews more 40+ than this forum.

[Chris@TTL]

I'd also love to hear the downsides of pursuing FIRE...because the FI piece is really nice, even if I end up with enough income to send the Internet Retirement Police after me on the RE side of FIRE

I think the perceived downside is really just...not spending the money, and all that entails.

I could have driven a Ferrari in my 20s, for example. But instead I scrimped and saved, at least, that's how some would view it.

I say perceived because folks who see this as a negative don't seem to understand that the money is indeed being spent. It's just being spent far in the future, on time for yourself and your life. You may not have purchased a Ferarri, instead, you bought time.

So the downside is: not spending money now.

[tooqk4u22]

I'd also love to hear the downsides of pursuing FIRE...because the FI piece is really nice, even if I end up with enough income to send the Internet Retirement Police after me on the RE side of FIRE

I think the perceived downside is really just...not spending the money, and all that entails.

I could have driven a Ferrari in my 20s, for example. But instead I scrimped and saved, at least, that's how some would view it.

I say perceived because folks who see this as a negative don't seem to understand that the money is indeed being spent. It's just being spent far in the future, on time for yourself and your life. You may not have purchased a Ferarri, instead, you bought time.

So the downside is: not spending money now.

When my working spendy friends talk about loosening up or working for more....I politely tell them that I have made a far larger purchase than they ever will, far more than a ferrari or a beach house or multiples of those combined.  haha

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Does anybody find the irony of posting about fizzling FIRE blogs on a forum of a FIRE blogger?

There are many RE folks at the early retirement forum, if you are curious about post-FIRE (good and bad), non-blogger types.  As you can imagine it skews more 40+ than this forum.

You probably haven't been around here for too long, this is not the most egregious / 'ironic' thread by a long shot!  Won't list of the other ones I'm thinking about...

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Does anyone know anything about what Paul and Vicki Terhorst are up to these days?

[BookLoverL]

The thing with Jacob was that he went to this quant job even though he was FIRE because he thought it sounded interesting and it wasn't something he'd be able to try by himself, I think. He kept it for a while and then stopped again. He and his wife are still living on extremely low amounts per year and have a big enough stash to last them for over a hundred years or something.

[Spud]

I found MMM in September 2014. I started reading the "All the posts since the beginning of time" page from the bottom up. The first post was written on January 6, 2011. By the time I got to The "Shockingly Simple Math" which was written on January 13, 2012, I stopped. I did go on to read all posts until about mid 2013, but I must have a had two week break and just kept returning to The Shockingly Simple Math, because it was the one post the basically summarised the mechanics of this stuff, and that was when I loved away from just reading and started taking action in the real world.

Every posts since about mid 2013, as been fluff. It's not really helped me get any closer to being financially independent. Yet the blog is still hanging on 7 years later. At this point it's like a dead person repeatedly being resuscitated and then left to die over and over and over again.

MMM produced 20 blog posts in April 2011 alone. From January 2018 to September 2020 he's only produced 31 posts in total.

This forum is so much better than the blog. I think for most people it's the number one reason for coming here once they've read the early blog posts and got a handle on stuff.

Thanks to whoever posted Dr Doom's blog. I'll have a read. Seems like a fun blog but more my kind of thing than MMM.

[rantk81]

You can also put me in the column of thinking that "The Shockingly Simple Math" was the the most influential blog posts for me, out of anything I've read on the topic.
I was already well under-way on my FIRE journey at the point when I read TSSM -- but it really hammered the points home!

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Does anyone know anything about what Paul and Vicki Terhorst are up to these days?

MMM did an blog post about them not to long ago I believe. Plus some other media about them when they hit 30 years  retired. Sounded like they were doing well. Now in their early 60s I think.

This was all I found, from 2015...  https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/mustachianism-around-the-web/the-original-mmm/

[marty998]

You can also put me in the column of thinking that "The Shockingly Simple Math" was the the most influential blog posts for me, out of anything I've read on the topic.
I was already well under-way on my FIRE journey at the point when I read TSSM -- but it really hammered the points home!

The True Cost Of Commuting is right up there too I'd say. I read that one at a time when I had a 3 hour a day commute. It hurt.

[KBCB]

following

[Retire-Canada]

My interest with reading FIRE blogs has fizzled over time. I got the information I needed back in 2014/15 for the most part. I appreciated the folks who wrote that information...including MMM. I think it's great that he made a bundle of $$$ from his blog. I'm glad my page views were part of that blog income for him. I don't care one bit whether he never writes another blog post or whether he writes 500 more.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Does anyone know anything about what Paul and Vicki Terhorst are up to these days?

MMM did an blog post about them not to long ago I believe. Plus some other media about them when they hit 30 years  retired. Sounded like they were doing well. Now in their early 60s I think.

This was all I found, from 2015...  https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/mustachianism-around-the-web/the-original-mmm/

I guess I was wrong as I couldn't find any MMM post about them or their book "Cashing in on the American Dream: How to Retire at 35". This fairly recent article about several early retirees who retired before 40 has a link to the Terhorst but I didn't read it yet.   https://www.supermoney.com/10-inspirational-stories-people-retired-before-40/

Here's the quick lie down from the article:

"In 1988 Richard Eisenberg wrote an article for money magazine on early retiree Paul Terhorst and recently updated the story 30 years later. “Last week, I caught up with Paul, now 65, to find out how the past 30 years have gone for him and his wife, Vicki (also 35 when she retired) — and to learn his plans for, what could be, another 30 years. ‘It excites us very much,’ Paul said, calling from their $450-a-month rental in Chiang Mai, Thailand, one of the seven best places to retire around the world, according to the new 2014 Retire Overseas Index. ‘Three of our four parents are alive in their 90s. We’re very excited and fully hope we can live and have vital, exciting lives for the next 30 years.’ When they first retired, says Paul, the couple determined that ‘we wanted to have a good life, rather than just a good job, so we decided to retire and never look back.’ And they haven’t.”

Not sure about the whole article (says it was updated 7/7/2020), but the info about Jeremy (GoCurryCracker) was very outdated...

As U.S. citizens and residents of Washington State (although they’re traveling in Mexico now), Jacobson and his wife Winnie Tseng pay federal but not state taxes. ‘Our lifestyle requires about $850,000 invested,’ Jacobson says. Currently, his financial plan requires that they live on 4% of that, a bit less than $36,000.”

They just had their second child, so definitely weren't gallivanting around Mexico in the midst of a pandemic in July...  Also didn't travel to Mexico in 2019 and that's as far as I researched.  Just thought it was amusing.

[Retire-Canada]

Have no idea what GoCurryCracker is up to now. Maybe he will come along and update us.

GCC update as of 17 Aug 2020

https://www.gocurrycracker.com/and-then-they-were-four/

[slappy]

Have no idea what GoCurryCracker is up to now. Maybe he will come along and update us.

GCC update as of 17 Aug 2020

https://www.gocurrycracker.com/and-then-they-were-four/

I've never followed them, but what a sweet update!

[Retire-Canada]

I've never followed them, but what a sweet update!

I don't read their blog, but since Spartana brought them up I went and had a look for when their last update was.

[chasesfish]

I was thrilled to see GCC share that, especially after a heartbreaking post in the last year or two about giving up after failed IVF

[soccerluvof4]

Just read all 3.5 pages of this thread. Agree with everything! :-)  No it is true that you basically get to a point and then its rinse and repeat. Alot of sites mentioned I had followed or stopped in on at the past but always find my way back to here or bogleheads. All I need.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Just read all 3.5 pages of this thread. Agree with everything! :-)  No it is true that you basically get to a point and then its rinse and repeat. Alot of sites mentioned I had followed or stopped in on at the past but always find my way back to here or bogleheads. All I need.

@soccerluvof4  You must be retired ;)

[EscapeVelocity2020]

I really would love to know what has become of this guy - https://earlyretirementdude.com/ !