Author Topic: FIRE'd because I got fired  (Read 9221 times)

Kay-Ell

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Re: FIRE'd because I got fired
« Reply #50 on: July 13, 2018, 10:09:43 AM »
As you've probably discovered by now this is a niche forum for people who are persuing early retirement through varying levels of frugality, and we have a lot of very vocal opinions about people who "waste" money.  But don't let that scare you away, we've also got a lot of good ideas about investing, and optimizing our lives.  Lots of people will have suggestions on how you can reduce your spending and live a happy life on less money.  But since that's not what you asked, I won't go into that.

In your position, with your stated goals, here's what I'd do.

Generally speaking, people who have indefinite retirement horizons (people like you and your wife in your 30's and 40's who may have 40-60 years of life left and want your cash to essentially last into perpetuity) rely on the Trinity Study based 4% rule (https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/05/29/how-much-do-i-need-for-retirement/).  To summarize; based on the history of the US stock market, even if you retired at the worst time in the market you'd still have a 95% chance of never ever running out of money if you withdraw 4% of your protfolio (adjusted only for inflation) every year forever.  Based on this, you're 6.5m in cash and 200k in IRA would produce about $268k/year in perpetual income.

Now - the liklihood that your portfolio will produce more than 4% most years is obviously very high.  But during downturns, when your portfolio may lose money, if you're still planning to take out the same amount of money each year, your portfolio will need additional years of returns greater than 4% to recover sufficiently to sustain your long term balance indefinitely.

In your situation, I'd give myself a year off and a gift to myself and my family.  Take time to settle your family in a leisurely fashion.  Take a few more vacations.  Hire a financial advisor who's willing to work with you on an hourly basis (rather than a % of returns) to set you up for long term sustainable returns.  Track your expenses for the year (there are plently of programs that can help you with this, Mint is a popular one on this forum).  At the end of the year, see if your American expenses really do add up to $325k.  My guess is that even without materially changing your lifestyle you'll come in well under that number. 

If not - you'll have some important choices to make.  You'll either need to earn more money for a few years to get your portfolio up to the point where it sustains your lifestyle indefinitely.  OR you'll need to cut your expenses to fit within the income your portfolio can produce.  But either way, at the end of a year, you'll be in a much better position to make an informed decision about what's best for you and your family.

A note on healthcare - 40k/year is ridiculous and in my opionon completely worthless.  Find a High Deductible plan with an out of pocket max, WELL below that (usually 15k for a family).  And resign yourself to paying cash for routine medical care up to the deductible while you save (likely) well over half of that 40k/year figure most years, and 1/4 of that figure even on the worst years where you mit the out of pocket max.

And last but not least, I definitely echo the suggestions to post on Boggleheads.  This forum is geared toward people who aim to retire as early as possible and live as inexpensively as they can.  It's not going to be as helpful to someone like you with a very high net worth and very expensive annual spending.

retire

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Re: FIRE'd because I got fired
« Reply #51 on: July 13, 2018, 10:57:40 PM »
Thank you very much for your reply Kay-Ell.  I've decided to do exactly what you suggested.  My wife and I will start tracking every expense starting August and track it for  a year.  We intend to cut as much as possible without completely living like hermits and then see what the annual spend is.  That will give me a more realistic target return for our cash.  We are also looking at some easy work options that offer healthcare benefits doing something I love like a non-profit organization. 

I've lined up meetings with accountants and finanacial planner/advisers once I get to the US as well.  Have been checking out boggleheads and I feel like I have a good idea of my portfolio set up.  I know I'm young but I intend to be more heavily weighted on fixed income vs. equity as I just need to clip coupons for income.  If trade war heats up and markets sell off hard, then I'll be ready to start layering in more equity.

Appreciate all the help from everyone! 

greenhill

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Re: FIRE'd because I got fired
« Reply #52 on: July 14, 2018, 03:52:26 AM »
I grow up and live in HK as well. While it is true that the cost of living is high there, I know folks who could FIRE in their 30s with a self-owned property plus US$350K in investable assets.

That being said, most HK people live in flats smaller than 300-400 sq. ft. A 1000 sq. ft flat would probably rent at least US$4-5K per month, which is considered very big in HK standard. I think these numbers are crazy in anywhere else.

COEE

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Re: FIRE'd because I got fired
« Reply #53 on: July 14, 2018, 08:33:06 AM »
With that much in cash, and my current expenses of $60k/year I could live another 108 years without investing a penny.  Not to mention that I think $60k/year is pretty lavish here in the US.  You're fine.  I would suggest investing at least a good chunk of your cash.  You could go 100% bonds and make $130k/year or so easily.  That's twice what I spend on our family, including a mortgage.  If I had that much money each year I'd spend several months of the year traveling.

PS.  I also think you're a troll.

Kay-Ell

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Re: FIRE'd because I got fired
« Reply #54 on: July 14, 2018, 09:08:38 AM »
Thank you very much for your reply Kay-Ell.  I've decided to do exactly what you suggested.  My wife and I will start tracking every expense starting August and track it for  a year.  We intend to cut as much as possible without completely living like hermits and then see what the annual spend is.  That will give me a more realistic target return for our cash.  We are also looking at some easy work options that offer healthcare benefits doing something I love like a non-profit organization. 

I've lined up meetings with accountants and finanacial planner/advisers once I get to the US as well.  Have been checking out boggleheads and I feel like I have a good idea of my portfolio set up.  I know I'm young but I intend to be more heavily weighted on fixed income vs. equity as I just need to clip coupons for income.  If trade war heats up and markets sell off hard, then I'll be ready to start layering in more equity.

Appreciate all the help from everyone!

Glad I could be of help. And congratulations on your future adventures. I hope you and your family find the most rewarding and meaningful use for your time and money!

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!