Author Topic: Extrapolate your Monthly Spend for the Year  (Read 4551 times)

boarder42

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9332
Extrapolate your Monthly Spend for the Year
« on: February 01, 2017, 06:11:56 AM »
Thought it would be fun to take what you spent the first month of the year and add in any one time expenses such as taxes and insurance to see where you may end up this year.

Jan Total spend including mortgage - 3800

45600 Total Spend annual + 6k property Tax + 3k Insurance = 54600

with out mortgage - 36180

Misc extra expenses in 2016 that wont continue - 6k for birth of baby. and subsequent years will involve daycare that obviously wont affect us in FIRE. 

Formula to figure out what your spend will look like in FIRE that i use

(Total Annual spend w/o mortgage) + (mortgage/1.02^(years til fire) + (expected Health insurance) + (expected Taxes)

Taxes vary based on your withdrawal method. 

57215 w/o taxes.

Taxes: 4.2k

Total annual spend with mortgage - 61500

Needed to Fire - 1.5MM - really a bit lower b/c the mortgage doesnt have to be assumed a 100% withdrawal cost. 

% of FIRE currently saved: 30%

Time to FIRE: 6 years. 

« Last Edit: March 01, 2017, 12:32:52 PM by boarder42 »

Ben Hogan

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 128
  • Location: Texas
Re: Extrapolate your Jan. Spend for the Year
« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2017, 06:26:47 AM »
Spending 1910
Saved: 3633

marielle

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 860
  • Age: 31
  • Location: South Carolina
Re: Extrapolate your Jan. Spend for the Year
« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2017, 06:37:06 AM »
January Spend: $977
x12 = $11,724

Currently not paying health insurance however...which would add $884 a year through employer, so theoretically:
$12,608

However...I'm moving in 5 months so this could potentially increase or decrease (trying to eliminate my car commute).

Time to fire...10 years if my salary never increases and I never get married/combine expenses with SO.

soccerluvof4

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7168
  • Location: Artic Midwest
  • Retired at 50
    • My Journal
Re: Extrapolate your Jan. Spend for the Year
« Reply #3 on: February 01, 2017, 07:34:19 AM »
Our yearly Budget is 85k or $7,083.00 a month. This is with family of 6 which we planned for in our retirement plan and should drop significantly in next two years (though we have 3 in plan) as two go off to already paid for college. We were under budget this month by over 1300$.

prognastat

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 781
  • Location: Texas
Re: Extrapolate your Jan. Spend for the Year
« Reply #4 on: February 01, 2017, 07:36:22 AM »
Spending: $3,840
Annual: $46,080
Annual w/o mortgage: $26,616
FIRE based on your calculation: $1,049,470
Saved so far: 15%
Years to FIRE based on January's savings: 7

January isn't very representative of the rest of my year though, along with December it is by far my highest earning month in the year.

I'm still working on reducing costs though and am also going to pay off my mortgage before retiring so the former will likely speed up things, but the latter might delay them some.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2017, 07:46:16 AM by prognastat »

Saskatchewstachian

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 203
  • Age: 33
  • Location: SK
Re: Extrapolate your Jan. Spend for the Year
« Reply #5 on: February 01, 2017, 08:27:01 AM »
Spending: $4800
Annual Spend: $57600
Annual w/o Mortgage: $37400

Saved $9600

Spend % ~70%

Relatively low spending month so I don't expect this to continue however it does feel great to start the year with a 70% month!

Dub_the_Builder

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 9
Re: Extrapolate your Jan. Spend for the Year
« Reply #6 on: February 01, 2017, 11:39:17 AM »
Spent $4,500
Annual $54k
W/O Mortgage $39.2K

Only saved $2,100

Still trying to figure out food with a toddler (very expensive fruit diet).

Want to consistently be above 30% savings, so we have a ways to go.

boarder42

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9332
Re: Extrapolate your Jan. Spend for the Year
« Reply #7 on: February 01, 2017, 11:51:35 AM »
we saved around 5k  this month.  as in actually went into our retirement accounts. 

i dont really track spending or savings rates b/c they dont do much good once you have a plan setup but i guess that puts us at

57% savings rate.  we have a ton of backloaded savings ... if we meat that spending goal our savings rate will be. 65%.

Raenia

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2648
Re: Extrapolate your Jan. Spend for the Year
« Reply #8 on: February 01, 2017, 11:53:51 AM »
Jan Spend: $1200
Annual: $14400
Needed to FIRE: $414000
% of FIRE currently saved: 25%
Time to FIRE: 8 years

Realistically, it'll be more than that, since not only was January an unusually lean month for expenses, but that assumes no children, never buying a house, etc.

Sailor Sam

  • CMTO 2023 Attendees
  • Walrus Stache
  • *
  • Posts: 5732
  • Age: 43
  • Location: Steel Beach
  • Semper...something
Re: Extrapolate your Jan. Spend for the Year
« Reply #9 on: February 01, 2017, 11:58:32 AM »
Spent: $2,542
Projected annual: $30,504

Spent w/out rent: $1502
Projected annual w/out rent: $18,024

Saved: $5,343
Projected annual: $64,116

Needed to FIRE: $1,000,000
% of FIRE currently saved: 38%
Time to FIRE: 7 years

The annual spending is about 10k lower than 2016's total spending, and the savings is 28k higher. It would be pretty awesome to reach these totals!

prognastat

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 781
  • Location: Texas
Re: Extrapolate your Jan. Spend for the Year
« Reply #10 on: February 01, 2017, 12:17:31 PM »
we saved around 5k  this month.  as in actually went into our retirement accounts. 

i dont really track spending or savings rates b/c they dont do much good once you have a plan setup but i guess that puts us at

57% savings rate.  we have a ton of backloaded savings ... if we meat that spending goal our savings rate will be. 65%.

It's hard to say how much we saved exactly since it is most of it is withheld for 401ks etc, but about 6k was added to our 401ks.

Also when I subtract my spending from the amount moved to 401ks + the amount deposited to my bank accounts through the month there is about 8.5k  that wasn't spent so the balance in my bank have also grown about 2.5k on top of the 401ks. Not sure if I can quite call it "savings" yet since some of it may be spent on our house in the next few months and thus not end up being invested. Hopefully most of it will be able to be invested though.

If I count anything that wasn't spent during that month vs everything I actually got that month the savings rate would be about a 68% savings rate, however as I mentioned before January is not very representative of my average month for income.

boarder42

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9332
Re: Extrapolate your Jan. Spend for the Year
« Reply #11 on: March 01, 2017, 12:32:26 PM »
so where does everyone stand after month 2? 
Jan 3800
Feb 4210
We're at 8010 with mortgage.  so our spending was higher this month extrapolates out to 48k with mortgage.  insanely higher month for us not really excited about that

inline five

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 675
Re: Extrapolate your Monthly Spend for the Year
« Reply #12 on: March 01, 2017, 12:52:47 PM »
Can I ask what the fixation on monthly savings is? Why does it matter? Our NW increased >$100k YTD, since Jan 2016 we are +$450k. That is really what matters. You can save all you want but if you are swimming upstream you'll go nowhere. IMO. We couldn't save that much yearly if we dumped 100% of our gross income into savings.

marielle

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 860
  • Age: 31
  • Location: South Carolina
Re: Extrapolate your Monthly Spend for the Year
« Reply #13 on: March 01, 2017, 12:57:27 PM »
Can I ask what the fixation on monthly savings is? Why does it matter? Our NW increased >$100k YTD, since Jan 2016 we are +$450k. That is really what matters. You can save all you want but if you are swimming upstream you'll go nowhere. IMO. We couldn't save that much yearly if we dumped 100% of our gross income into savings.

Every dollar, every day counts. This blog/forum is more about reducing your expenses and insourcing your needs than about how much your investments went up in a year.

prognastat

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 781
  • Location: Texas
Re: Extrapolate your Jan. Spend for the Year
« Reply #14 on: March 01, 2017, 01:56:34 PM »
so where does everyone stand after month 2? 
Jan 3800
Feb 4210
We're at 8010 with mortgage.  so our spending was higher this month extrapolates out to 48k with mortgage.  insanely higher month for us not really excited about that

After the first two months.
Jan $3,800
Feb $4,000
Would be $7,800 so far, extrapolating to $46,800 with mortgage for the year.

Not moving in the direction I wanted, but mostly due to an appliance breaking and some unexpected vet bills so hopefully March will be better.

prognastat

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 781
  • Location: Texas
Re: Extrapolate your Monthly Spend for the Year
« Reply #15 on: March 01, 2017, 02:00:07 PM »
Can I ask what the fixation on monthly savings is? Why does it matter? Our NW increased >$100k YTD, since Jan 2016 we are +$450k. That is really what matters. You can save all you want but if you are swimming upstream you'll go nowhere. IMO. We couldn't save that much yearly if we dumped 100% of our gross income into savings.

And if the markets go down your net worth may go down by several hundred thousand. Unless you are FIRE and are living off your stache it means nothing. Meanwhile spending less means saving more and also lowering the amount you need to cover your spending in FIRE. Every dollar saved is one that not only adds a dollar to your stache, it is also one that keeps growing until you do FIRE and is $25 less you need in your stache to cover it at 4% SWR.

Sailor Sam

  • CMTO 2023 Attendees
  • Walrus Stache
  • *
  • Posts: 5732
  • Age: 43
  • Location: Steel Beach
  • Semper...something
Re: Extrapolate your Jan. Spend for the Year
« Reply #16 on: March 01, 2017, 02:52:31 PM »
Spent: $2,542
Projected annual: $30,504

Spent w/out rent: $1502
Projected annual w/out rent: $18,024

Saved: $5,343
Projected annual: $64,116

Needed to FIRE: $1,000,000
% of FIRE currently saved: 38%
Time to FIRE: 7 years

The annual spending is about 10k lower than 2016's total spending, and the savings is 28k higher. It would be pretty awesome to reach these totals!

Month 2:

Spent: $2,507 =
Projected annual: $30,084

Spent w/out rent: $1457
Projected annual w/out rent: $17,484

Saved: $6,796
Projected annual: $81,552

Needed to FIRE: $1,000,000
% of FIRE currently saved: 39.9%
Time to FIRE: 6 years

Saving is falsely inflated, thanks to a hefty tax refund. Otherwise spending is holding pretty steady. Certainly not the best, but it ain't the worst.

Mr. Green

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4534
  • Age: 40
  • Location: Wilmington, NC
Re: Extrapolate your Monthly Spend for the Year
« Reply #17 on: March 01, 2017, 05:36:49 PM »
After two months exactly as is: $73,164 for the year.

Looks ugly but has lots of costs in there that don't transfer to FIRE. Mortgage goes away when we move, that's $17,199.  My last pre-mustachian car payment is in 3 months, that's $3,284 off the books. Then there's the ungodly medical bills associated with my hospital visit and associated cardiac tests. If I ran the currently monthly average out for the year that's $20,270. Knock those off and we're back to a nice, mustachian $32,411, well under our target of $40,000 a year for FIRE.

boarder42

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9332
Re: Extrapolate your Monthly Spend for the Year
« Reply #18 on: March 01, 2017, 05:48:40 PM »
Can I ask what the fixation on monthly savings is? Why does it matter? Our NW increased >$100k YTD, since Jan 2016 we are +$450k. That is really what matters. You can save all you want but if you are swimming upstream you'll go nowhere. IMO. We couldn't save that much yearly if we dumped 100% of our gross income into savings.

This is a thread about spending. So you may be lost. Because spending matters alot. Exactly 2 x as much as savings.  But they are one in the same you have an income you have a spending. The difference is your savings. Not sure what your point is.

BlueMR2

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2313
Re: Extrapolate your Monthly Spend for the Year
« Reply #19 on: March 01, 2017, 05:57:17 PM »
Yeah, if I extrapolated based on so far, I'd be looking at $12k for the year.  I know from past years though that I must be missing some other expenses as my true baseline is closer to $16-18k once I remove extra spending and car/house repairs that I have to outsource now (because I'm too busy working to do them myselves).  With all the stuff in there, it runs anywhere from $20-25k depending on the year.  Those outsourced repairs are a surprisingly large part of the budget.  Labor is definitely not cheap!

Zikoris

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4550
  • Age: 37
  • Location: Vancouver, BC
  • Vancouverstachian
Re: Extrapolate your Monthly Spend for the Year
« Reply #20 on: March 01, 2017, 07:54:13 PM »
We spent $1219 in January and $1485 in February. That would mean we're looking at $16,224, plus travel spending of 8-9K, so somewhere between $24,000 and $25,000. Sounds about right. We usually spend around $27,000.

rpr

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 718
Re: Extrapolate your Monthly Spend for the Year
« Reply #21 on: March 01, 2017, 08:16:27 PM »
Jan $5360 (includes some large regular annual expenditures such as insurance)
Feb $4411

Averaging about $4800/month for the first two months. Extrapolates to be about $60K annual. About in line with what we spent all last year. Does not include pre-tax deductions from paycheck such as health insurance premiums which total almost $5000 annually.

Definitely not very mustachian at this point even though we save a good chunk:( Would love to get it to below $54K annual.

boarder42

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9332
Re: Extrapolate your Monthly Spend for the Year
« Reply #22 on: March 02, 2017, 10:22:41 AM »
Oh duh insurance. Our spending was considerably lower when you pull out 1200 that's an annual expense. I feel much better now thanks for pointing that out.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!