I think part of the disconnect here is that we aren't even talking about the same thing. For the overwhelmingly large percentage of people the mortgage payoff scenario involves monthly payoffs over many dozens of months, not lump sum. Call it DOA if you like.
You are constantly throwing out terms like "reversion to the mean" without defining the time period and suggest market timing but say you "don't play [that] game". You stick with a suspicious and erroneous 7 year time-frame with little reason - the justification about the poster up-thread doesn't even hold water. Explanations from multiple posters about why a 7-year time-frame is not valid and why you should look at more than just the most recent 16 years have gone unanswered.
The mantra here is not 'buy low' but rather 'buy and hold'. Those aren't remotely the same thing.
FWIW I'm not even in the hard-core "never pay off your mortgage camp" though I am convinced its better for many people. I know that there are reasons for some that make sense, such as cash-flow, stress and when you've "won the game". But you try to bring in historical simulations but do it in ways that are highly biased towards your position. You talk endlessly about 'the market' but then talk about how you have 'far better options" that earn "double or triple" which you "understand and can control". Yet you still seem to be advocating paying down your mortgage, despite these amazing and "less volatile' investment opportunities available to you. How you've made that calculation I can't even begin to comprehend.
In sum you aren't representative of the people for whom this discussion is for (i.e. most people).
Not taking advantage of tax-advantaged accounts because one wants to pay down their mortgage makes no financial sense (to me) for anyone who is above the 15% tax bracket. For every dollar I put into my tax-advantaged accounts I save 25% in taxes. As Telecaster noted, that's too risky not to take advantage of.
First off, congratulations to all of those who have paid off their mortgage and don't regret it.
AGAIN. CONGRATULATIONS to those who have no regrets. You know, the title of the thread and all.
We seem to veer off that point from time to time. Not sure why so many non pay off non-regretter supporters linger here. Like sitting in the visitors section, but I digress. We do need a spirited debate afterall.
To your points:
I have defined the reversion to the mean time period you reference multiple times in this thread. I noted the market has been on a tear for 8.5 years, and over the next decade reversion is likely. So 10 years.
As far as the equity market vs alternative controlled investments, I don't doubt it is hard to comprehend. That is why few people do it, and why it is successful. And you are exactly correct, I am not representative of the people whom this discussion is generally for. I have stated that point as well, numerous times. I am not representative of most people on this board by design. That is part of the beauty of this debate. People not invested in advancing their position and being "right" or having the last word can read and see that even people who arrived at the destination a completely different way can still share the same goal. I don't like certain debt or certain risk for a variety of reasons. They may be different reasons than yours, but they are valid. But no one asks why. Instead they assume, then attack.
And this 7 year issue you keep bringing up. Dude....I have answered it multiple times, yet you bring it up again. Are you trying to be annoying now? (just messing with you - maybe). Here is what I said....TO YOU...yesterday at 6:34 on page 12 of this thread:
I went with the 7 year timeframe because that is how long the poster I was responding to owned his home.
And that is also the historical average for ownership. Somehow that response, to that guy about his 7 year ownership experience somehow turned into my defacto position on this issue, which isn't the case
Here is the original post.
I looked back at my own $200k/4.25% mortgage that my wife and I took out in 2010, put every extra cent (after retirement accounts) into, and paid off a few years later. I looked over our past extra payments and put them into a spreadsheet simulating what would have happened if we had instead put the extra payments into VTSAX. Before even considering the tax benefit of extending the mortgage interest deduction, we would have come out ahead by $130k by the time we sold that house earlier in 2017.
$130k divided by seven years is a lot more than your "max benefit" that you state.
I'm not arguing that my situation is typical of all time periods. If we had instead bought the house in 2005 the numbers would surely be different. I'd like to run those numbers when I have a bit more time, just to see.
He brought up 7 years. And he brought up a separate timeframe of 2005. So I went back 5 years further and got the numbers just to look. For myself. I didn't know what they would say. I was curious. It just so happens it supports my position some. It may even be convenient, but it is still true and it still happened. That post is due to SeattleCyclone's timeframe, not mine.
And prioritizing paying down a mortgage over other investments, even tax advantaged ones can make sense in certain circumstances. But that is not what I was choosing. I would choose the mortgage over equity accounts at this point in time, regardless of the tax saving on personal income. The tax advantaged part doesn't affect me as much as you or most others, because I have various ways of deferring or avoiding taxes through business long before it passes through to my 1040. Most people on here look at an IRA of $5500, or an extra few thousand into their 401K as their option. I think that is what Boarder was alluding to. I look at section 179 for $100K-$200K or 1031 exchanges or buying commercial property and the depreciation schedule when I look at tax advantaged moves. I think we play in different ends of the pool.
Have you thought to consider that not everyone shows income every year? You know, some people have carry forward losses. Some people buy businesses just for the carry forward loss.
I take a significant amount of various market risks in my income generation. Unlike most people here who are W-2 salaried, their income is fairly risk free and likely not exposed to markets so they get their risk on from their investments outside of income. And the most common way is through equity investing, or their primary home. So that is why this discussion revolves around those two items.
But that isn't the extent of my circle. I get all the risk one wants on the income side, so I have no room left on the investment side in order to maintain balance. Becuase of that I prefer fixed guaranteed investment or payoffs, which include a mortgage. It's not because I can't do the calculations. I do them everyday.
What is really interesting is I have lots of various risk exposure on the income side. And I do business with people just like you and all the other keep the mortgage people every day. And Confirmation bias? I have every reason to be on the keep side. I make money with that position. I make money when others have that position. I used to be on that side. It was a good position 8 years ago.
And yet it's still not my personal position now. You don't have to understand it or comprehend. Only I have to.
I am not in the hardcore payoff the mortgage camp either. I am not hardcore in either camp. I just don't care for people coming on here, a congrats on payoff thread, and dumping their shit when there are several other threads where that is appropriate. Including a thread that is just about keeping the mortgage. Go bump that one up to the top. The fact that I don't subscribe to most of the reasons for leverage, such as the 4% SWR, or expectations of future average equity market performance only help to fend off the attacks. But don't be fooled. Many of you guys are abnormally viscous with your position, even overreacting because a name was accidentally misspelled?. That I don't understand. It is likely why others don't post here. They don't want to get attacked and I understand that.
To each their own. I have repeatedly said the main thing is understanding your choice, regardless of which one it is. I completely understand mine. It has worked out very well for me and many others. For some, they have regrets. Hopefully they have taken action on those regrets and done something about it.