Here's the antibody positive rate in various demographic groups in NYC:
Whites 7%
NYPD 10.5%
Frontline healthcare workers 12%
Transit workers 14%
Manhattan residents 17%
New York City residents overall (sampled from people shopping at supermarkets) 20%
Latinos 27%
Bronx residents 28%
In my particular high-risk healthcare setting, 18% of my colleagues had PCR-confirmed positive test results (NP swabs); a number of people I know were also sick at a time NP swabs weren't offered; and I'm sure there's a significant percent who got infected but remained asymptomatic. I got swabbed once when I had a couple days of mild non-specific symptoms, and the test came out negative. I live with my DH and young child, and none of us have had cough or fever.
The Abbot antibody test (the one offered through my workplace) claims a sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 99.5%. If my pre-test probability is 10%, then the positive predictive value of a positive antibody test (PPV) is around 96% (4% chance the false positive). If my pre-test probability is 20%, the PPV increases to 98%.
I'm thinking of getting the antibody test. If negative, I'll assume I haven't been infected (Abbott claims 100% sensitivity). If positive, I'll send my DH to get tested too (Thanks,
@zygote ). Concordant results can boost the accuracy of the test. Discordant results make it more likely one of us got a false positive result.
@Dollar Slice We talked about this in your journal. I think the test offered by Quest is actually based on the Abbott test? The test characteristics are not bad, especially if you have a high pre-test probability. I too was going everywhere in Jan/Feb, in crowds, taking public transportation everywhere during rush hour. In retrospect, there definitely was community spread in Feb, but it probably wasn't widespread then. It's also the time of year people are getting colds and flu, so lots of coughing all around. The height of the spread was mid-March, right before the lockdown. I think it's not unreasonable for those of us in a high-prevalence area to get the test.