Author Topic: destroying the ignorance and myths on the coronavirus  (Read 6499 times)

lutorm

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Re: destroying the ignorance and myths on the coronavirus
« Reply #50 on: March 22, 2020, 08:25:06 PM »
This article in the NYT today surveys experts about what the US must do and pretty much advocates the "hammer".

They agree that the harder you come down, the quicker it will be over.

Boofinator

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Re: destroying the ignorance and myths on the coronavirus
« Reply #51 on: March 22, 2020, 09:06:55 PM »
Best article I've read for comprehensive information and recommended strategy: suppression. Purpose, to buy time to get more effective strategies / knowledge.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

The article indicates there could be more than 10,000,000 dead in the US if nothing is done.  There is no scientific evidence to support such a number.  The case mortality rate is 4% which is a work of science fiction.  Viral epidemics are usually the most deadly at their initiation and onset, China's fatality rate was recently reduced to 1.4% as of last week by the WHO.

The link you posted is that of science fiction, pure hysteria.

I don't think you fully understand decision analysis or the concept of worst-case scenario. In the case under discussion, one branch of the decision tree shows that if we go about our lives as usual without taking any mitigation measures, up to 10,000,000 deaths are likely to result (for the variety of reasons others have noted). This is as much science fiction as a nuclear holocaust, should every nuclear weapon go off at once in the glorious culmination of the MAD doctrine. Just because it hasn't happened or is unlikely to happen, doesn't mean it couldn't happen.

Also, telling people they are acting hysterical is not a good debating strategy.

Abe

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Re: destroying the ignorance and myths on the coronavirus
« Reply #52 on: March 22, 2020, 09:14:31 PM »
People seem to be caught up on the case fatality rate

Agreed . . . but from a slightly different perspective - there's also a good chunk of people who are coming out of this with possibly permanent lung damage.  And they're not old, but in all age groups.

That’s another good point. Death isn’t the only long term complication of this virus.

Nangirl17

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Re: destroying the ignorance and myths on the coronavirus
« Reply #53 on: March 23, 2020, 10:28:32 AM »
CUOMO: "We did some projections. We think here in New York... we're looking here at a peak in about five or six weeks. We're looking at about 110,000 hospitalizations, about 25,000 to 37,000 people needing ICU beds. That vastly overwhelms our healthcare capacity."

I live in WI, but have a kid due in six weeks. Super scared.

Ooh. I'd be giving serious thought to a home birth.

Midwife here. I love home birth, but you don't necessarily need to have a home birth if you don't want one. In fact, I don't recommend it at all unless you have a well trained attendant (that submits to a regulatory body if there is one) as well as good backup in case of emergencies, which is key for the safety of home birth.

While the best indications we have are that the virus does not cross the placenta, we really don't have enough information, and if you are infected, it is best to have a hospital birth with increased monitoring.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!