Covid vaccine rollout in the US - who do you know that is getting the vaccine?

[Adventine]

When the time comes, I'm also looking forward to hearing from those who get the single shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine.

[shuffler]

Part of the issue is that the newer vaccines coming out of trials now are up against the variants (in part), and they're not as effective against those newer evolutions. Pfizer and Moderna got 95% doing trials before these variants broke out. If they did their trials now, it's almost a guarantee that the numbers would be a bit lower.

Some early data is starting to come out.
Please see this post I made in the "How long can we wait" thread.

[Sugaree]

30-something DoD civilian here. My office had an email go out mid month gathering info for people who want to be vaccinated. Radio silence since then. To do my job, I have to be at the office every day. I've been back working full time in my office since April doing my job (and that of others who are in high risk groups).

Meanwhile I'm starting to see teachers and other randos my age get vaccinated on Facebook. Uhh Natsec? Continuity of government? Starting to get a disillusioned with the lack of priorities and miserably mismanaged distribution.

DoD civilian here.  We got the same email and got the first dose last week.  I'm guessing that those doses came from a federal supply vs the state supply so different guidelines apply for each group.  There are locals who are pissed that we "cut in line" but only 1/3 of the workforce chose to get it

[badger1988]

Got my first Moderna shot today at a HyVee pharmacy.

I was the 12th scheduled appointment of the day, and they had already had 6 no-shows plus a few more cancellations for the afternoon. They were calling people in off a "friends-and-family" list to try and fill the slots.

[Catbert]

Getting the appointment and vaccine was a demonstration in privilege for me.  Not white privilege but rather middle class privilege.  I didn't cut any lines or use any special   connections, but still...

I have a smartphone, laptop and internet access and know how to use them.
I'm retired so could check online for appointments as often as I wanted.
I could make an appt for any day/time without getting permission from a boss.
I have a car so I could make an appt at any time/place without needing to figure out how to get there.

So many people are missing one or more of these fairly routine privileges.

[American GenX]

Getting the appointment and vaccine was a demonstration in privilege for me.  Not white privilege but rather middle class privilege.  I didn't cut any lines or use any special   connections, but still...

I have a smartphone, laptop and internet access and know how to use them.
I'm retired so could check online for appointments as often as I wanted.
I could make an appt for any day/time without getting permission from a boss.
I have a car so I could make an appt at any time/place without needing to figure out how to get there.

So many people are missing one or more of these fairly routine privileges.

I just had to make a call to an internal extension number to reserve a spot in late December, then walk around he corner from my office a few days later to get the vaccination.  I felt pretty privileged.  The second does a few weeks later was the same.  I'm not complaining.

[HBFIRE]

Good news is in the US we are approaching 1.5 M doses/day administered -- that's more volume than any other country by a good margin.  It seems like we should be in the range of 2-3M/day administered in Feb easily with J&J joining the mix, pharmacies administering doses, and better infrastructure with more precise organization -- also the military getting involved with distribution should be a good boost.  New cases and hospitalizations are also dropping very fast.  I'm optimistic things will look very good by the end of March.  We should see deaths plummet once our 65+ and at risk demographic reaches a high % of vaccination as they make up 90+% of deaths, that really shouldn't take too much longer.  Anti-Vax sentiment should wane as more of the population gets vaccinated and we see good results.  Seeing some light at the end of the tunnel here.  This might be naive, but I think "normal" by summer is very doable.  This is an interesting stat -- the world has now administered more vaccination doses  than confirmed cases.  That's impressive given we're just starting to ramp up!

[Villanelle]

30-something DoD civilian here. My office had an email go out mid month gathering info for people who want to be vaccinated. Radio silence since then. To do my job, I have to be at the office every day. I've been back working full time in my office since April doing my job (and that of others who are in high risk groups).

Meanwhile I'm starting to see teachers and other randos my age get vaccinated on Facebook. Uhh Natsec? Continuity of government? Starting to get a disillusioned with the lack of priorities and miserably mismanaged distribution.

DoD civilian here.  We got the same email and got the first dose last week.  I'm guessing that those doses came from a federal supply vs the state supply so different guidelines apply for each group.  There are locals who are pissed that we "cut in line" but only 1/3 of the workforce chose to get it

Interesting.  Do you have any conditions or circumstances that put you in a higher category?

DH is active duty military and thus far only people who are in one of the higher categories have gotten it, other than a handful of "continuity of government" types. 


~~~
For those who know people who might struggle to get registered, encouraging them to work with their local library (assuming it is open) might be one avenue to consider.  Libraries have computers and staff that tends to know how to work those computers and is tasked partially with helping the public.  It isn't perfect and doesn't cover all the reasons a person might struggle to get and attend an appointment, but it might help with some of those reasons. 

[Michael in ABQ]

30-something DoD civilian here. My office had an email go out mid month gathering info for people who want to be vaccinated. Radio silence since then. To do my job, I have to be at the office every day. I've been back working full time in my office since April doing my job (and that of others who are in high risk groups).

Meanwhile I'm starting to see teachers and other randos my age get vaccinated on Facebook. Uhh Natsec? Continuity of government? Starting to get a disillusioned with the lack of priorities and miserably mismanaged distribution.

DoD civilian here.  We got the same email and got the first dose last week.  I'm guessing that those doses came from a federal supply vs the state supply so different guidelines apply for each group.  There are locals who are pissed that we "cut in line" but only 1/3 of the workforce chose to get it

Interesting.  Do you have any conditions or circumstances that put you in a higher category?

DH is active duty military and thus far only people who are in one of the higher categories have gotten it, other than a handful of "continuity of government" types. 

In my case they sent out an email and if you wanted the vaccine you filled in some basic information on a spreadsheet. In our department of about 20-30 people I think 11 were in the first group. As far as I can tell there wasn't any sort of prioritization for underlying health risks, most are probably in their 40s and 50s. It seemed to be more of a first-come first-served. The folks who got the vaccine said it was very quick and efficient, but then again this is a military health organization so they're used to this sort of thing every year with flu shots.

[Sugaree]

30-something DoD civilian here. My office had an email go out mid month gathering info for people who want to be vaccinated. Radio silence since then. To do my job, I have to be at the office every day. I've been back working full time in my office since April doing my job (and that of others who are in high risk groups).

Meanwhile I'm starting to see teachers and other randos my age get vaccinated on Facebook. Uhh Natsec? Continuity of government? Starting to get a disillusioned with the lack of priorities and miserably mismanaged distribution.

DoD civilian here.  We got the same email and got the first dose last week.  I'm guessing that those doses came from a federal supply vs the state supply so different guidelines apply for each group.  There are locals who are pissed that we "cut in line" but only 1/3 of the workforce chose to get it

Interesting.  Do you have any conditions or circumstances that put you in a higher category?

No.  Everyone who wanted one got it.  I suspect that had more people volunteered then they would have possibly limited it to higher risk people and people who have to work closely together in the shops.  We had a member of upper management die from it last week, so I'm somewhat surprised that more people didn't go for it. 

[Villanelle]

30-something DoD civilian here. My office had an email go out mid month gathering info for people who want to be vaccinated. Radio silence since then. To do my job, I have to be at the office every day. I've been back working full time in my office since April doing my job (and that of others who are in high risk groups).

Meanwhile I'm starting to see teachers and other randos my age get vaccinated on Facebook. Uhh Natsec? Continuity of government? Starting to get a disillusioned with the lack of priorities and miserably mismanaged distribution.

DoD civilian here.  We got the same email and got the first dose last week.  I'm guessing that those doses came from a federal supply vs the state supply so different guidelines apply for each group.  There are locals who are pissed that we "cut in line" but only 1/3 of the workforce chose to get it

Interesting.  Do you have any conditions or circumstances that put you in a higher category?

DH is active duty military and thus far only people who are in one of the higher categories have gotten it, other than a handful of "continuity of government" types. 

In my case they sent out an email and if you wanted the vaccine you filled in some basic information on a spreadsheet. In our department of about 20-30 people I think 11 were in the first group. As far as I can tell there wasn't any sort of prioritization for underlying health risks, most are probably in their 40s and 50s. It seemed to be more of a first-come first-served. The folks who got the vaccine said it was very quick and efficient, but then again this is a military health organization so they're used to this sort of thing every year with flu shots.

Spouse filled out a spreadsheet a couple weeks back but thus far the only people around him who've gotten it are those with underlying health conditions.  I'm a bit surprised that they haven't been more aggressive with vaccinating active duty.  But it sounds like in some places, perhaps they are. 

[Trifle]

Looks like both Iowa and Wisconsin have moved on to vaccinating over-80s.  Both my dad (Iowa) and mother in law (Wisconsin) got a call from their doctors in the last couple of days to come in for the vaccine. 

[jrhampt]

My in-laws are supposed to get their vaccines this week.  One has an appointment this afternoon but it may get canceled due to the snowstorm.  They’re in the 75+ group.

[TheFrenchCat]

I got my first shot last week, as did my grandma and mother in law.  I'm high risk, as is my mother in law, and grandma is over 80.  I'm so thankful.

[ChickenStash]

Got my second shot of the Pfizer vaccine on Saturday and it hit me hard. Alternating between extreme chills and sweats, major fatigue, soreness. It took me out for most of Saturday night into Sunday evening. I'm still a bit tired today but not too bad. Some coworkers that got the shot over the weekend had similar experiences.

[Morning Glory]

Good news is in the US we are approaching 1.5 M doses/day administered -- that's more volume than any other country by a good margin.  It seems like we should be in the range of 2-3M/day administered in Feb easily with J&J joining the mix, pharmacies administering doses, and better infrastructure with more precise organization -- also the military getting involved with distribution should be a good boost.  New cases and hospitalizations are also dropping very fast.  I'm optimistic things will look very good by the end of March.  We should see deaths plummet once our 65+ and at risk demographic reaches a high % of vaccination as they make up 90+% of deaths, that really shouldn't take too much longer.  Anti-Vax sentiment should wane as more of the population gets vaccinated and we see good results.  Seeing some light at the end of the tunnel here.  This might be naive, but I think "normal" by summer is very doable.  This is an interesting stat -- the world has now administered more vaccination doses  than confirmed cases.  That's impressive given we're just starting to ramp up!

My mom said that at least four of her co-workers refused the vaccine. These are all older or overweight people who are direct healthcare workers who have seen how sick Covid patients get.  They have had at least 40 Covid deaths so far in a county with less than 10K people. SMH.

[dougules]

Got my second shot of the Pfizer vaccine on Saturday and it hit me hard. Alternating between extreme chills and sweats, major fatigue, soreness. It took me out for most of Saturday night into Sunday evening. I'm still a bit tired today but not too bad. Some coworkers that got the shot over the weekend had similar experiences.

There probably isn't really any way to know, but I wonder if the people that have the worst side effects from the vaccine are also the people that would have gotten the sickest if they'd actually gotten COVID. 

[Adventine]

Got my second shot of the Pfizer vaccine on Saturday and it hit me hard. Alternating between extreme chills and sweats, major fatigue, soreness. It took me out for most of Saturday night into Sunday evening. I'm still a bit tired today but not too bad. Some coworkers that got the shot over the weekend had similar experiences.

There probably isn't really any way to know, but I wonder if the people that have the worst side effects from the vaccine are also the people that would have gotten the sickest if they'd actually gotten COVID.

There probably isn't any way to know right now, but I certainly hope a pattern can be identified years from now.

[ice_beard]

This is pretty old news, but I got my 2nd dose (Pfizer) the first week of January.  The only side effect I had was minor soreness at the injection site.  I actually felt great, even energized after both injections, especially the first one.  It was almost strange.  In general, I have a very strong immune system and even as a former ER nurse, I rarely ever get sick.

I'm a Covid ICU RN, so that's how I received it so early.  Our staff had a wide range of side effects with some needing to call off work for a few days for feeling like general crud, to none like me.     

[Dicey]

Got my second vaccine today. The nurse had come out of retirement to help out. Her shot was much smoother than the young nurse who administered the first one. By this time after #1, my arm was already sore and my ass was dragging. So far today, I feel fine. Fingers crossed.

[DizzyDaisies]

My mom said that at least four of her co-workers refused the vaccine. These are all older or overweight people who are direct healthcare workers who have seen how sick Covid patients get.  They have had at least 40 Covid deaths so far in a county with less than 10K people. SMH.

I am genuinely curious how those who refuse the vaccine think that the spread of the virus should be contained. Do they think it best to just let it burn through the entire world, overwhelming the healthcare system and leaving all this death and sickness in it’s wake? And then what? The new strains come along and it starts all over again? In my opinion, the vaccines are the only chance we have to control this virus. Or do they hope that so many will get the vaccine that they will reap the benefits without having to take one for the team?

[Adventine]

Got me second vaccine today. The nurse had come out of retirement to help out. Her shot was much smoother than the young nurse who administered the first one. By this time after #1, my arm was already sore and my ass was dragging. So far today, I feel fine. Fingers crossed.

Yay yay yay!

[American GenX]

It's a week past my second dose of Moderna.   All has been fine, and I should now be 90%+ protected against COVID-19 from the mainstream variants in the U.S.

I might actually have to try eating out in a restaurant - I haven't done than since sometimes before March of last year!

[American GenX]

I am genuinely curious how those who refuse the vaccine think that the spread of the virus should be contained. Do they think it best to just let it burn through the entire world, overwhelming the healthcare system and leaving all this death and sickness in it’s wake? And then what? The new strains come along and it starts all over again? In my opinion, the vaccines are the only chance we have to control this virus. Or do they hope that so many will get the vaccine that they will reap the benefits without having to take one for the team?

The reasons vary.  Remember, some people think it's a hoax, so none of what you stated applies to them.  I work with a guy who could have gotten it the same day as me by simply walking down the hall from his office.  But he chose not to.  He says it's overrated and shows no concern at all.  He basically ignores me as I tell him why he should get it.

[Adventine]

I am genuinely curious how those who refuse the vaccine think that the spread of the virus should be contained. Do they think it best to just let it burn through the entire world, overwhelming the healthcare system and leaving all this death and sickness in it’s wake? And then what? The new strains come along and it starts all over again? In my opinion, the vaccines are the only chance we have to control this virus. Or do they hope that so many will get the vaccine that they will reap the benefits without having to take one for the team?

The reasons vary.  Remember, some people think it's a hoax, so none of what you stated applies to them.  I work with a guy who could have gotten it the same day as me by simply walking down the hall from his office.  But he chose not to.  He says it's overrated and shows no concern at all.  He basically ignores me as I tell him why he should get it.

The classic "this worldwide health crisis doesn't look so bad to me, how could it possibly be so bad for anyone else?"

[DizzyDaisies]

The reasons vary.  Remember, some people think it's a hoax, so none of what you stated applies to them.  I work with a guy who could have gotten it the same day as me by simply walking down the hall from his office.  But he chose not to.  He says it's overrated and shows no concern at all.  He basically ignores me as I tell him why he should get it.

The classic "this worldwide health crisis doesn't look so bad to me, how could it possibly be so bad for anyone else?"

Yes, I’m sure you’re both right. We know several people who have died from or have lost relatives to COVID. I just read an article yesterday citing an unexplained increase in the development of diabetes in recovered patients. Add that to the heart, lung, and kidney problems, MIS-C, etc. developing in post COVID patients, and it blows my mind that people think this is a hoax/overblown. The vaccine seems way preferable to all of that.

[Abe Froman]

The sad part about not being able to put boundaries around the initial virus, mainstream COVID for now - it sucks even just saying that - is that its wide proliferation allows for more mutation and variants to take hold, not just the illness it creates. It is just a numbers and time game. The more numbers out there, the more timely and likely a variant will take hold.

Sure many other variants are likely out there - and likely most of those with inert mutations that did not affect transmissibility, but a few did. And here we are with a handful of new variants making news and one that has caused (either Moderna or Pfizer) to give up evaluating the current vaccine efficacy already. A new approach will need to be established possibly.

J&J though is based on a common cold virus - and uses a piece of COVID to initiate immune response, rather than Pfizer and Moderna's mRNA. J&J is self reported as 66% effective (as opposed to the others at >90%) but has proven to dramatically reduce sever effects across multiple variants - which is promising.

I am holding out for the J&J when it comes out - has a wider defense and only 1 shot, rather than boosters.

[GuitarStv]

It's a week past my second dose of Moderna.   All has been fine, and I should now be 90%+ protected against COVID-19 from the mainstream variants in the U.S.

I might actually have to try eating out in a restaurant - I haven't done than since sometimes before March of last year!

This is exactly the type of increase in risky behaviours that I expect to see as vaccines roll-out.  It's a natural reaction, and I get the urge to start doing all the things you used to do . . . but will end up causing a lot of needless deaths.

[jrhampt]

IDK, by the time I get vaccinated I will feel much safer eating out and going to the gym and at least hanging out with other vaccinated people.  I was hearing on npr this morning that an estimated 100 (**million**, not thousand -- thanks, fixed).  people in the US have already been infected and should have *some* immunity, and another 10% of the population in CT has been vaccinated.  So if roughly a third of the population has had covid already and you add on the percentage who have been vaccinated (yes, I know there is some overlap between these two categories), currently you have up to 40% of the population in CT with some kind of immunity.  The vaccination pace seems to be increasing so in another couple of months we may be up to more than half of the population here and perhaps up to 60% with some immunity, and that's when I start to feel safer doing things.  Which I won't do anyway until I get vaccinated, but hypothetically if I were vaccinated, I would start to be out and about more.  I'd guess that by the time I become eligible in (optimistically) May or June, we'll be pretty close to herd immunity, or at least close enough that I will go back to the gym. 

[Taran Wanderer]

Pretty sure you meant 100 million, not 100,000.

If we can’t go back to eating in restaurants or back to the gym or gathering with friends and family after getting vaccinated, then what is the path out of this lockdown we’ve been in for 11 months?

[GuitarStv]

Pretty sure you meant 100 million, not 100,000.

If we can’t go back to eating in restaurants or back to the gym or gathering with friends and family after getting vaccinated, then what is the path out of this lockdown we’ve been in for 11 months?

Go back to eating in restaurants, back to the gym, gathering with friends and family - that's the goal.  But it's not safe to do so until enough people have been fully vaccinated to provide herd immunity.  Last I was reading, that's sitting somewhere around 70% of the population.

There was a recent case in Toronto where a nurse was vaccinated and more than two weeks after getting his second shot.  He tested positive for covid (showing no symptoms) and was carrying the virus around so still had to quarantine.

The constant overselling of the vaccine that has been going on is somewhat of a problem.  You can still come down with covid if you're fully vaccinated (although the odds are that it will be less of a problem for you), and you can still transmit the disease to others after being vaccinated.  Until herd immunity has been reached, vaccination isn't a guarantee of your own (and certainly not others) safety.

The people involved in immunization are supposed to be educating people who get vaccinated about this  . . .  but judging from the comments in this thread that information is not sinking in.

[sui generis]

I was hoping to get vaccinated by summer, but at the current vaccination rates, my health system will get me vaccinated *possibly* by the year 2025.  https://abc7.com/kaiser-permanente-vaccine-california/10230169/

Sigh. 

I mean, I may be too impatient, but I was hoping for some glimmer of news, since the Biden Admin took over, that vaccine production and distribution would speed up.  But I'm not hearing any murmurings of actual steps that should result in that happening in the coming weeks?

[jrhampt]

They're speeding up now and are at a current rate of around 1.5 million per day.  Even if we stay stuck at this pace and don't increase at all from here, that's an additional 135 million vaccinated over the next 3 months.  Currently we're at around 30 million, so that's about half the population.  How are you getting 2025?  That's wildly pessimistic and unrealistic.

Also, in the next couple of weeks the vaccine will be sent out to retail pharmacies.  Right now in my state there are only a few places where most people can get vaccinated, so being able to get it at CVS or something will make it more accessible as well.

[sui generis]

They're speeding up now and are at a current rate of around 1.5 million per day.  Even if we stay stuck at this pace and don't increase at all from here, that's an additional 135 million vaccinated over the next 3 months.  Currently we're at around 30 million, so that's about half the population.  How are you getting 2025?  That's wildly pessimistic and unrealistic.

Also, in the next couple of weeks the vaccine will be sent out to retail pharmacies.  Right now in my state there are only a few places where most people can get vaccinated, so being able to get it at CVS or something will make it more accessible as well.

As I mentioned, that is based on the current vaccination rates.  See the story I linked to.  Obviously, my health provider hopes to get increased allocations of the vaccine, so I don't actually anticipate waiting 4 years, but there is a definite problem with my provider specifically.  Last email I got from them, they are still working through their own employees and have not even started vaccinating any of their patients.

[jrhampt]

They're speeding up now and are at a current rate of around 1.5 million per day.  Even if we stay stuck at this pace and don't increase at all from here, that's an additional 135 million vaccinated over the next 3 months.  Currently we're at around 30 million, so that's about half the population.  How are you getting 2025?  That's wildly pessimistic and unrealistic.

Also, in the next couple of weeks the vaccine will be sent out to retail pharmacies.  Right now in my state there are only a few places where most people can get vaccinated, so being able to get it at CVS or something will make it more accessible as well.

As I mentioned, that is based on the current vaccination rates.  See the story I linked to.  Obviously, my health provider hopes to get increased allocations of the vaccine, so I don't actually anticipate waiting 4 years, but there is a definite problem with my provider specifically.  Last email I got from them, they are still working through their own employees and have not even started vaccinating any of their patients.

Clearly your provider has an issue, yes, but most people I know have not gotten vaccinated through their provider.

[Catbert]

sui generis - If you otherwise meet your area's requirements to get the vaccine, you can search for and get vaccinated in a community site.  I also have Kaiser and they've just recently started vaccinating selected 75+ years old where I am.  I'm not quite that old but was able to get vaccinated last week at community clinic based on 65+

[Villanelle]

IDK, by the time I get vaccinated I will feel much safer eating out and going to the gym and at least hanging out with other vaccinated people.  I was hearing on npr this morning that an estimated 100 (**million**, not thousand -- thanks, fixed).  people in the US have already been infected and should have *some* immunity, and another 10% of the population in CT has been vaccinated.  So if roughly a third of the population has had covid already and you add on the percentage who have been vaccinated (yes, I know there is some overlap between these two categories), currently you have up to 40% of the population in CT with some kind of immunity.  The vaccination pace seems to be increasing so in another couple of months we may be up to more than half of the population here and perhaps up to 60% with some immunity, and that's when I start to feel safer doing things.  Which I won't do anyway until I get vaccinated, but hypothetically if I were vaccinated, I would start to be out and about more.  I'd guess that by the time I become eligible in (optimistically) May or June, we'll be pretty close to herd immunity, or at least close enough that I will go back to the gym.

Except a venn diagram of "had Covid" and "gotten the vaccine" has a fair amount of overlap.  I'd guess that overlap is more than just the basic statistics would suggest, as many of the people vaccinated are also the people in jobs or situations most likely to have expoused them to Covid in the first place.  My sister is one example of this.  She's in law enforcement, and was exposed at work (and got sick and tested positive).  She's also been vaccinated.  So you can't add "had Covid" + "been vaccinated" = total number with immunity. 

My plan, when I am eventually vaccinated, is to continue to mask and avoid restaurants and other gatherings.  The only thing I might allow myself is a [masked, of course] trip to see my elderly and already-vaccinated parents.    This is unless guidelines have changed by that point. 

[waltworks]

By the time I'm vaccinated (I'm pretty much last in line, for good reason), basically everyone who wants to will be, so I'll do whatever the heck I want. For folks who refused the vaccine, tough shit.

Alternately, if I haven't yet been vaccinated but cases have dropped to very low levels, I'll go back to normal life as well.

I'm hoping that's by May or June. Things are ramping up fast!

-W

[dougules]

They're speeding up now and are at a current rate of around 1.5 million per day.  Even if we stay stuck at this pace and don't increase at all from here, that's an additional 135 million vaccinated over the next 3 months.  Currently we're at around 30 million, so that's about half the population.  How are you getting 2025?  That's wildly pessimistic and unrealistic.

Also, in the next couple of weeks the vaccine will be sent out to retail pharmacies.  Right now in my state there are only a few places where most people can get vaccinated, so being able to get it at CVS or something will make it more accessible as well.

We've only got Moderna and Pfizer going here in the US at the moment, so how much will J&J, AstraZeneca, Novavax, and the Sanofi/Pfizer partnership add to total production? 

IDK, by the time I get vaccinated I will feel much safer eating out and going to the gym and at least hanging out with other vaccinated people.  I was hearing on npr this morning that an estimated 100 (**million**, not thousand -- thanks, fixed).  people in the US have already been infected and should have *some* immunity, and another 10% of the population in CT has been vaccinated.  So if roughly a third of the population has had covid already and you add on the percentage who have been vaccinated (yes, I know there is some overlap between these two categories), currently you have up to 40% of the population in CT with some kind of immunity.  The vaccination pace seems to be increasing so in another couple of months we may be up to more than half of the population here and perhaps up to 60% with some immunity, and that's when I start to feel safer doing things.  Which I won't do anyway until I get vaccinated, but hypothetically if I were vaccinated, I would start to be out and about more.  I'd guess that by the time I become eligible in (optimistically) May or June, we'll be pretty close to herd immunity, or at least close enough that I will go back to the gym.

The vaccines aren't 100% so changes in behavior should be based on changes on total case numbers, not your own vaccination status.  You can still catch it and spread it even if less so.

Also, the vaccines and previous natural immunity aren't as effective against the South African and Brazilian strains that are already spreading in other countries including the US.  Those make it even more necessary to not let our guard down until we see the total numbers come down. 

On a completely separate note, is the US, Britain, and Israel being so far ahead based on something fair?  Is there something like us devoting more of our own resources to R&D and manufacturing, or are we basically just stealing from grandmothers in the EU, nurses in Bolivia, and doctors in Guinea?

[the_fixer]

I was hoping to get vaccinated by summer, but at the current vaccination rates, my health system will get me vaccinated *possibly* by the year 2025.  https://abc7.com/kaiser-permanente-vaccine-california/10230169/

Sigh. 

I mean, I may be too impatient, but I was hoping for some glimmer of news, since the Biden Admin took over, that vaccine production and distribution would speed up.  But I'm not hearing any murmurings of actual steps that should result in that happening in the coming weeks?

Kaiser is struggling here in Colorado as well what you are not taking into account is that you do not have to wait for Kaiser you can do what many people here in Colorado are doing and go to another system or provider often the same day.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jrhampt]

By the time I'm vaccinated (I'm pretty much last in line, for good reason), basically everyone who wants to will be, so I'll do whatever the heck I want. For folks who refused the vaccine, tough shit.

This is basically my stance as well, and I'm one of the more conservative people I know in terms of risk.  I work from home and haven't socialized indoors at all with anyone outside my household since last March.  I haven't eaten indoors in a restaurant since last March or been to the gym or gotten a hair cut.  I haven't flown anywhere.  The only risky activity I do is getting groceries.  But by the time I get vaccinated in a few months, I expect we'll have had around half the population vaccinated already, at least.  I will probably choose not to socialize indoors with unvaccinated friends, but otherwise I'm planning on resuming more normal life.

[GuitarStv]

By the time I'm vaccinated (I'm pretty much last in line, for good reason), basically everyone who wants to will be, so I'll do whatever the heck I want. For folks who refused the vaccine, tough shit.

This is basically my stance as well, and I'm one of the more conservative people I know in terms of risk.  I work from home and haven't socialized indoors at all with anyone outside my household since last March.  I haven't eaten indoors in a restaurant since last March or been to the gym.  I haven't flown anywhere.  The only risky activity I do is getting groceries.  But by the time I get vaccinated in a few months, I expect we'll have had around half the population vaccinated already, at least.  I will probably choose not to socialize indoors with unvaccinated friends, but otherwise I'm planning on resuming more normal life.

 . . . and as long as vaccination rates are up around the numbers that give herd immunity that'll be perfectly fine.  Before we hit herd immunity people (even vaccinated ones) should continue taking the same precautions as before they had it.

[former player]

They're speeding up now and are at a current rate of around 1.5 million per day.  Even if we stay stuck at this pace and don't increase at all from here, that's an additional 135 million vaccinated over the next 3 months.  Currently we're at around 30 million, so that's about half the population.  How are you getting 2025?  That's wildly pessimistic and unrealistic.

Also, in the next couple of weeks the vaccine will be sent out to retail pharmacies.  Right now in my state there are only a few places where most people can get vaccinated, so being able to get it at CVS or something will make it more accessible as well.

We've only got Moderna and Pfizer going here in the US at the moment, so how much will J&J, AstraZeneca, Novavax, and the Sanofi/Pfizer partnership add to total production? 

IDK, by the time I get vaccinated I will feel much safer eating out and going to the gym and at least hanging out with other vaccinated people.  I was hearing on npr this morning that an estimated 100 (**million**, not thousand -- thanks, fixed).  people in the US have already been infected and should have *some* immunity, and another 10% of the population in CT has been vaccinated.  So if roughly a third of the population has had covid already and you add on the percentage who have been vaccinated (yes, I know there is some overlap between these two categories), currently you have up to 40% of the population in CT with some kind of immunity.  The vaccination pace seems to be increasing so in another couple of months we may be up to more than half of the population here and perhaps up to 60% with some immunity, and that's when I start to feel safer doing things.  Which I won't do anyway until I get vaccinated, but hypothetically if I were vaccinated, I would start to be out and about more.  I'd guess that by the time I become eligible in (optimistically) May or June, we'll be pretty close to herd immunity, or at least close enough that I will go back to the gym.

The vaccines aren't 100% so changes in behavior should be based on changes on total case numbers, not your own vaccination status.  You can still catch it and spread it even if less so.

Also, the vaccines and previous natural immunity aren't as effective against the South African and Brazilian strains that are already spreading in other countries including the US.  Those make it even more necessary to not let our guard down until we see the total numbers come down. 

On a completely separate note, is the US, Britain, and Israel being so far ahead based on something fair?  Is there something like us devoting more of our own resources to R&D and manufacturing, or are we basically just stealing from grandmothers in the EU, nurses in Bolivia, and doctors in Guinea?

Apparently our Health Minister here in the UK watched the film Contagion and as a result went in hard and early on ordering vaccines, with the result that it's one of the few things we've got right on the pandemic -

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55274833

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

[jrhampt]

By the time I'm vaccinated (I'm pretty much last in line, for good reason), basically everyone who wants to will be, so I'll do whatever the heck I want. For folks who refused the vaccine, tough shit.

This is basically my stance as well, and I'm one of the more conservative people I know in terms of risk.  I work from home and haven't socialized indoors at all with anyone outside my household since last March.  I haven't eaten indoors in a restaurant since last March or been to the gym.  I haven't flown anywhere.  The only risky activity I do is getting groceries.  But by the time I get vaccinated in a few months, I expect we'll have had around half the population vaccinated already, at least.  I will probably choose not to socialize indoors with unvaccinated friends, but otherwise I'm planning on resuming more normal life.

 . . . and as long as vaccination rates are up around the numbers that give herd immunity that'll be perfectly fine.  Before we hit herd immunity people (even vaccinated ones) should continue taking the same precautions as before they had it.

Somewhat, yes, but even before reaching herd immunity, assuming the case levels are trending low I might feel comfortable getting a (masked) haircut or even going to a (masked) yoga class.  I would definitely feel free to hang out with other vaccinated people indoors while continuing to limit contact with unvaccinated people.

[jrhampt]

They're speeding up now and are at a current rate of around 1.5 million per day.  Even if we stay stuck at this pace and don't increase at all from here, that's an additional 135 million vaccinated over the next 3 months.  Currently we're at around 30 million, so that's about half the population.  How are you getting 2025?  That's wildly pessimistic and unrealistic.

Also, in the next couple of weeks the vaccine will be sent out to retail pharmacies.  Right now in my state there are only a few places where most people can get vaccinated, so being able to get it at CVS or something will make it more accessible as well.

We've only got Moderna and Pfizer going here in the US at the moment, so how much will J&J, AstraZeneca, Novavax, and the Sanofi/Pfizer partnership add to total production? 

IDK, by the time I get vaccinated I will feel much safer eating out and going to the gym and at least hanging out with other vaccinated people.  I was hearing on npr this morning that an estimated 100 (**million**, not thousand -- thanks, fixed).  people in the US have already been infected and should have *some* immunity, and another 10% of the population in CT has been vaccinated.  So if roughly a third of the population has had covid already and you add on the percentage who have been vaccinated (yes, I know there is some overlap between these two categories), currently you have up to 40% of the population in CT with some kind of immunity.  The vaccination pace seems to be increasing so in another couple of months we may be up to more than half of the population here and perhaps up to 60% with some immunity, and that's when I start to feel safer doing things.  Which I won't do anyway until I get vaccinated, but hypothetically if I were vaccinated, I would start to be out and about more.  I'd guess that by the time I become eligible in (optimistically) May or June, we'll be pretty close to herd immunity, or at least close enough that I will go back to the gym.

The vaccines aren't 100% so changes in behavior should be based on changes on total case numbers, not your own vaccination status.  You can still catch it and spread it even if less so.

Also, the vaccines and previous natural immunity aren't as effective against the South African and Brazilian strains that are already spreading in other countries including the US.  Those make it even more necessary to not let our guard down until we see the total numbers come down. 

On a completely separate note, is the US, Britain, and Israel being so far ahead based on something fair?  Is there something like us devoting more of our own resources to R&D and manufacturing, or are we basically just stealing from grandmothers in the EU, nurses in Bolivia, and doctors in Guinea?

Apparently our Health Minister here in the UK watched the film Contagion and as a result went in hard and early on ordering vaccines, with the result that it's one of the few things we've got right on the pandemic -

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55274833

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

That's awesome!!  As for the US, I very rarely say anything positive about the past administration, but I do think they should get credit for pushing early for a vaccine (possibly because we were too undisciplined to really try mitigation, contact tracing, and testing strategies, but still).

[Taran Wanderer]

The US would have benefited from a more multi-faceted, science based approach, but the heavy focus on a vaccine and associated funding almost certainly accelerated the process. I sometimes wonder if a broader, more cautious approach would have been as successful in speeding vaccine delivery. I doubt it.

[seattlecyclone]

By the time I'm vaccinated (I'm pretty much last in line, for good reason), basically everyone who wants to will be, so I'll do whatever the heck I want. For folks who refused the vaccine, tough shit.

This is basically my stance as well, and I'm one of the more conservative people I know in terms of risk.  I work from home and haven't socialized indoors at all with anyone outside my household since last March.  I haven't eaten indoors in a restaurant since last March or been to the gym.  I haven't flown anywhere.  The only risky activity I do is getting groceries.  But by the time I get vaccinated in a few months, I expect we'll have had around half the population vaccinated already, at least.  I will probably choose not to socialize indoors with unvaccinated friends, but otherwise I'm planning on resuming more normal life.

 . . . and as long as vaccination rates are up around the numbers that give herd immunity that'll be perfectly fine.  Before we hit herd immunity people (even vaccinated ones) should continue taking the same precautions as before they had it.

So I know a thing or two about probabilities in general, but I'm no expert on disease propagation specifically.

Here's how I've been reasoning about it. If the vaccine is 80% effective, once you have the vaccine you'll be 20% as likely to contract or transmit COVID when interacting with other people as you would have been pre-vaccine. You could ease up on the precautions a bit, such that your risky behavior doubles, and you'd be 40% as likely to contract or transmit COVID as you were pre-vaccine. If everybody does that and no more, and COVID numbers are declining anyway (as they are in my area), then vaccinated people could double their risky behavior and we'd still see COVID numbers decline. The decline would in fact be steeper than it is today because 40% is less than 100%.

20% is even less than 40%, so we'd kill off the virus even faster by maintaining full restrictions until herd immunity is reached, but the trajectory would still look pretty good even if vaccinated people doubled their risky behavior. The problem is that there's still a big difference from doubling your risky behavior and fully going "back to normal." If "back to normal" means increasing your risk ten-fold, then you're at 200% overall risk level, and then the disease numbers would start going the wrong way until herd immunity is achieved. The advice to not change your behavior at all therefore seems to make a lot of sense, because people are probably going to naturally ease up a little bit once they're vaccinated, but on a population level we can't really condone that or people will go too far.

Am I basically thinking about this the right way, or am I missing something?

[Michael in ABQ]

20% is even less than 40%, so we'd kill off the virus even faster by maintaining full restrictions until herd immunity is reached, but the trajectory would still look pretty good even if vaccinated people doubled their risky behavior. The problem is that there's still a big difference from doubling your risky behavior and fully going "back to normal." If "back to normal" means increasing your risk ten-fold, then you're at 200% overall risk level, and then the disease numbers would start going the wrong way until herd immunity is achieved. The advice to not change your behavior at all therefore seems to make a lot of sense, because people are probably going to naturally ease up a little bit once they're vaccinated, but on a population level we can't really condone that or people will go too far.

Am I basically thinking about this the right way, or am I missing something?

I'd just note that the people most likely to engage in risky behavior, i.e. going to a packed bar or restaurant with no mask, are the ones most likely to get infected and would therefore contribute to herd immunity in that way.

One of the first people near me that caught COVID was the receptionist at my physical therapist. Every time I came in her mask was on her chin while all the other employees and patients were diligent about wearing ours properly.

[Morning Glory]

I officially have a vaccine appointment for Friday!!!

[Adventine]

I officially have a vaccine appointment for Friday!!!

Nice!!