Author Topic: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS  (Read 28565 times)

John Galt incarnate!

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #100 on: March 19, 2020, 06:31:39 PM »
I'm still on the fence with this. On the one hand, considering the low fatality .

I thought I would start a thread to collect information from researchers and medical experts who argue that the panic is overblown from a medical point of view and that we should be more concerned with the negative consequences for civil liberties.



I am an unflagging civil libertarian.

In my opinion, the ordinances and regulations  issued by States and local jurisdictions to control the pandemic  do not impermissibly abridge civil liberties; on the contrary, they are a legitimate exercise of the States' police power under the Tenth Amendment.


AMENDMENT  X [1791]

The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.


Under the Tenth Amendment (federalism), the States and their political subdivisions have   the police power, a sweeping  power to enact laws, regulations, and   ordinances that promote the health, safety, and welfare of the community .

The States' police power, and that of their political subdivisions,  is a comprehensive power that authorizes   regulation of  everything from A to Z, from the sale of alcoholic beverages to the caging of dangerous animals in zoos.


Commonwealth v. Alger (1851)

The government's power to enact such regulations for the good and welfare of the community as it sees fit, [is] subject to the limitations that the regulation be both reasonable and constitutional.

 It is much easier to perceive and realize the existence and sources of this power, then to mark its boundaries, or prescribe limits to its exercise.



JACOBSON  v. COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS
(1905)


The authority of the state to enact this statute is to be referred to what is commonly called the police power,—a power which the state did not surrender when becoming a member of the Union under the Constitution.

Although this court has refrained from any attempt to define the limits of that power, yet it has distinctly recognized the authority of a state to enact quarantine laws and 'health laws of every description;' indeed, all laws that relate to matters completely within its territory and which do not by their necessary operation affect the people of other states.

According to settled principles, the police power of a state must be held to embrace, at least, such reasonable regulations established directly by legislative enactment as will protect the public health and the public safety.

HPstache

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #101 on: March 21, 2020, 04:08:39 PM »
I was beginning to suspect that something extra shitty is going in Italy.  I was inspired by this graph that compares infection cases between US and Italy to show that we are following the same exponential curve in cases:

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/20/21179040/coronavirus-us-italy-not-overreacting

But nowhere have I seen deaths overlayed like this... and it was my suspicion that Italy is getting rocked way harder than the US death-wise at the same point in the infection timeline.  So I started with the date that each country had 1,000 confirmed infections and then looked at the total death count 10 days later.  Here are my preliminary results using this website for my data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

USA:
1,000 cases March 10
19,380 cases March 20 (10 days later)
256 Deaths March 20

Italy
1,000 cases Feb "28.5" (interpolating)
9,600 cases Mar "9.5" (interpolating)
547 Deaths Mar "9.5"

I chose to start the comparison at 1,000 cases rather than the 100 that Vox decided to start with for what should be better precision.  I interpolated for Italy because their 1,000 case mark happened almost exactly between Feb 28 and Feb 29.

The point is that we have half the deaths despite having significantly more infections after the same amount of time passing after reaching 1,000 infections.

I'm not posting this to prove that we should take this situation any less seriously,  but it sure seems that something really shitty is going on Italy, which we already kind of knew.  But I have tried to quantify how much worse it was at the same point in the infection timeline. 

I believe it may have to do with average age (what would our deaths be had the virus broke out in FL and AZ instead of WA and NY?) And that Italy got hit so hard their medical system is completely overwhelmed causing more people to die.  Thoughts?

John Galt incarnate!

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #102 on: March 21, 2020, 04:17:04 PM »



I believe it may have to do with average age (what would our deaths be had the virus broke out in FL and AZ instead of WA and NY?) And that Italy got hit so hard their medical system is completely overwhelmed causing more people to die.  Thoughts?

I heard reportage to the effect that lots of Italy's fatalities  were among old people who had underlying medical conditions.

HPstache

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #103 on: March 21, 2020, 04:26:25 PM »
Iran:
1,000 cases Mar 1
9,000 cases Mar 11
354 Deaths Mar 11

France
1,000 cases Mar 7
7,730 cases Mar 17
175 Deaths Mar 17

HPstache

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #104 on: March 21, 2020, 04:30:29 PM »
I can go ahead and add Spain to the bad situation list!

Spain:
1,000 cases Mar "8.5"
16,400 cases Mar "18.5"
735 deaths Mar "18.5"

JGS1980

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #105 on: March 21, 2020, 04:42:34 PM »
Can someone tie the above data to smoking rates? We know smokers are the most likely to suffer the most from the China data. USA smoking rate is about 17%, Italy 24%, 24% Spain. 36% males smoke in France vs 26 % females. China is about 52% of men, less than 3% of women. In all countries Men smoke a whole lot more, which may explain a lot of the increase male death rate.

All of this is quick google search data.

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #106 on: March 21, 2020, 04:43:46 PM »
Both in Italy and Spain there is a very concentrated outbreak in a small geographical area, Lombardy and Madrid respectively, whereas the USA cases are much more spread out.  A better comparison would be Lombardy and Madrid with Seattle or New York.  It matters because lots of cases in a small area in a short time is how medical services fail to cope and a higher proportion of the 20% or so who will need hospital treatment will die.

John Galt incarnate!

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #107 on: March 21, 2020, 04:48:22 PM »
Can someone tie the above data to smoking rates? We know smokers are the most likely to suffer the most from the China data. USA smoking rate is about 17%, Italy 24%, 24% Spain. 36% males smoke in France vs 26 % females. China is about 52% of men, less than 3% of women. In all countries Men smoke a whole lot more, which may explain a lot of the increase male death rate.

All of this is quick google search data.

I heard something (I think) about smokers' increased susceptibility to this horrible virus.

Possibly in connection with Italy's higher fatalities.

HPstache

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #108 on: March 21, 2020, 04:51:48 PM »
Another way to look at it, and even further suggest that we are currently on a completely different death trajectory compared to italy is to forget about choosing 1,000 cases as the starting point, and instead choose something that is independent of the sketchyness that was early testing (a fair criticism of my initial method).  Let's look at change in deaths 16 days after first report 11 deaths (common number between the two countries).  Deaths are something that should be very well documented:

USA:
11 Deaths March 4
256 Deaths March 20 (16 Days later)

Italy:
11 Deaths Feb 25
1,016 March 12 (16 Days Later)

Holy shit folks!
« Last Edit: March 21, 2020, 04:55:22 PM by v8rx7guy »

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #109 on: March 21, 2020, 04:57:33 PM »
Holy shit is right!

I think deaths is the correct metric.  No telling widespread the testing was from jurisdiction to jurisdiction. 

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #110 on: March 21, 2020, 04:57:56 PM »
Can someone tie the above data to smoking rates? We know smokers are the most likely to suffer the most from the China data. USA smoking rate is about 17%, Italy 24%, 24% Spain. 36% males smoke in France vs 26 % females. China is about 52% of men, less than 3% of women. In all countries Men smoke a whole lot more, which may explain a lot of the increase male death rate.

All of this is quick google search data.

I heard something (I think) about smokers' increased susceptibility to this horrible virus.

Possibly in connection with Italy's higher fatalities.
The NHS is listing obesity, even without diabetes, as a risk factor.  That could put 25% of Americans at risk even without considering other factors.  (The NHS refers to a BMI over 40, but I've seen elsewhere references to "mild obesity" as a risk factor.)

Abe

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #111 on: March 21, 2020, 05:21:57 PM »
Italy definitely has a higher death rate of known cases (9% or 4835/53578). Other Western European countries have 2-5.5%,except Germany with a very low rate of 0.4%. That is in line with S Korea, which did mass testing in affected areas instead of symptom-driven testing. Italy has limited ICU capacity per capita compared to the US, and twice as many older people as percent of population. They are starting to medivac critically ill people to other regions, which may help mitigate deaths going forward. That is a strategy that can be done in the US to diffuse the burden in a given area. We have the advantage of much lower population density in most parts of the country, so ventilator use can be spread out to those areas if they haven’t had a surge of cases. Here in Southern California we are waiting but have not seen a surge of cases as we expected.

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #112 on: March 21, 2020, 05:32:53 PM »
The problem with most of the comparative numbers is that size of community and country are important factors. 

City by city would be better.

All that said, we can all hope that the measures being taken work, so that so-called contrarians can enjoy being smug about how it was all overblown and they knew all along etc etc.

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #113 on: March 21, 2020, 07:31:57 PM »
Italy definitely has a higher death rate of known cases (9% or 4835/53578). Other Western European countries have 2-5.5%,except Germany with a very low rate of 0.4%. That is in line with S Korea, which did mass testing in affected areas instead of symptom-driven testing. Italy has limited ICU capacity per capita compared to the US, and twice as many older people as percent of population. They are starting to medivac critically ill people to other regions, which may help mitigate deaths going forward. That is a strategy that can be done in the US to diffuse the burden in a given area. We have the advantage of much lower population density in most parts of the country, so ventilator use can be spread out to those areas if they haven’t had a surge of cases. Here in Southern California we are waiting but have not seen a surge of cases as we expected.

And then, maybe we shouldn't destroy our economy because of bad data coming out of a single country while ignoring how the rest of the world is handling it.

Why have so many coronavirus patients died in Italy?

Quote
“On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #114 on: March 21, 2020, 08:28:54 PM »
Unless a vaccination can be found and mass administered, I just don't see an alternative to everyone getting Covid.

It seems flattening the curve and thus reducing the mortality from 20% (needing hospitalisation but unable to get it) to the current 1-3% is the best we can hope for in developed countries. Note this would take years of social distancing.

It is iis also completely pointless in countries like Syria and regions like Africa, where there is not much of a healthcare service to start with.

I don't see how this can end with anything but mass fatalities and ongoing second, third etc waves.



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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #115 on: March 21, 2020, 09:57:31 PM »
Italy definitely has a higher death rate of known cases (9% or 4835/53578). Other Western European countries have 2-5.5%,except Germany with a very low rate of 0.4%. That is in line with S Korea, which did mass testing in affected areas instead of symptom-driven testing. Italy has limited ICU capacity per capita compared to the US, and twice as many older people as percent of population. They are starting to medivac critically ill people to other regions, which may help mitigate deaths going forward. That is a strategy that can be done in the US to diffuse the burden in a given area. We have the advantage of much lower population density in most parts of the country, so ventilator use can be spread out to those areas if they haven’t had a surge of cases. Here in Southern California we are waiting but have not seen a surge of cases as we expected.

And then, maybe we shouldn't destroy our economy because of bad data coming out of a single country while ignoring how the rest of the world is handling it.

Why have so many coronavirus patients died in Italy?

Quote
“On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.

All of those countries are handling it in similar ways, with stringent lockdowns that most of our country is not under. They are either in the run-up to the slope or have managed to lock down soon enough to slow blunt it. Even the recaltritant UK government is locking down.

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #116 on: March 21, 2020, 10:29:56 PM »
I was beginning to suspect that something extra shitty is going in Italy.  I was inspired by this graph that compares infection cases between US and Italy to show that we are following the same exponential curve in cases:

First, keep in mind the number of infection cases is closely related to testing methodology.

Along these lines is the quote from this article. In Italy:

Quote
By comparison, the median age of those who tested positive for the illness was 63.

Unless their was some very strange social dynamics, resulting in an unusual infection percentage in older folks, it seems pretty improbable to be this high. Isn't it more likely that it was considerably more widespread and inadequate testing resulted in the number of cases seeming lower than expected? Or were younger Italians strangely immune?

It feels like either that and/or this is the case for making numbers from Italy a little difficult to take at face value:

Why have so many coronavirus patients died in Italy?

Quote
“On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.


Abe

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #117 on: March 21, 2020, 10:39:00 PM »
We generally put the proximate cause of death on death certificates so that NIH quote isn’t relevant except to show that comprbidities are common in patients dying of coronavirus, just like any other infectious cause. Most coronavirus patients cause of death will either be septic shock, ARDS or cardiac arrest. Some will die of anoxic brain injury. With regardless to Italy, it has the highest median age of any country in Europe, and a significantly older median age than China, for example, where the median age of coronavirus patients (not general population) was 47.

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #118 on: March 21, 2020, 10:41:32 PM »
We generally put the proximate cause of death on death certificates so that NIH quote isn’t relevant except to show that comprbidities are common in patients dying of coronavirus, just like any other infectious cause. Most coronavirus patients cause of death will either be septic shock, ARDS or cardiac arrest. Some will die of anoxic brain injury. With regardless to Italy, it has the highest median age of any country in Europe, and a significantly older median age than China, for example, where the median age of coronavirus patients (not general population) was 47.

That makes a lot more sense.

Abe

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #119 on: March 21, 2020, 11:08:59 PM »
Don’t get me wrong, I think the economic damage will be quite high and long term human toll will not be as high as some project. However, what a lot of those projections don’t take into account are secondary deaths due to the pandemic, including patients who are in critical condition for unrelated reasons yet can’t be treated. That is obviously hard to determine but congestive heart failure, heart attack and COPD mortality are all inversely correlated with adequate critical care. 

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #120 on: March 21, 2020, 11:30:34 PM »
Is the US categorizing covid deaths properly? If we are testing only a very small portion of our live population, are we bothering to test all recent deaths for the virus? If random older people die at home without making it to a testing center or ER, will they be excluded from the stats?

We are so woefully behind the curve in testing that we have no way to know how artificially low are numbers are.

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #121 on: March 21, 2020, 11:41:45 PM »
We are not, as we don’t have tests to waste on that. I’m guessing we’re not going to autopsy them at all (most at home deaths without evidence of foul play go straight to morgue). ME will list most likely cause based on comorbidities and family report. Retrospectively we may be able to guess at-home covid deaths as a spike from baseline, but that’s about it.

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #122 on: March 22, 2020, 05:10:44 AM »
If the number of Serious/ Critical cases (breathing machines!) in f.i. Germany (20 and now deleted !), Netherlands 354, UK etc. are correct and so very low , how can we believe that the health system is about to collapse in these countries? The measure to shut down the entire economic system is out of proportion and the damage is unheard off since WW2. This price paid is highly irresponsible and the result of manipulation and hysteria I am afraid.

Italy, Iran and also increasingly Spain show that hospitals can become overwhelmed. Japan shows that face masks and good hygiene can prevent that. In any case, it seems possible that the healthcare systems of more countries could become overwhelmed. There have been almost 800 deaths with corona in Italy only recently (compared to 1,750 per day last year from all causes on average).

Nevetheless, the lockdowns are too severe according to many if not most virologists. At the end of the day, it's not like the power elites give a remotest flying fig about human lives. They care about people revolting if there are mass deaths in overcrowded hospitals, and they care about exploiting this crisis for power.

As a contrarian, I do not doubt for a minute people are ill, sick, and will maybe die.  What I suggest this is an Economic War. Folks dying is just a side issue.
Closing down restaurants, movie theatres, travel industry, and all surrounding businesses is harsh!
How will the Administration unwind all of this? How do tell folks the virus is gone and you can go about your business as before?
Will America be the same as before? People working from home. Kids getting educated via internet. The world will change because of these isolation requirements. Maybe a good thing? Maybe a bad thing?

Makes you think there will be any health service if the economy is allowed to die?
« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 05:18:04 AM by happyuk »

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #123 on: March 22, 2020, 05:17:20 AM »
If the number of Serious/ Critical cases (breathing machines!) in f.i. Germany (20 and now deleted !), Netherlands 354, UK etc. are correct and so very low , how can we believe that the health system is about to collapse in these countries? The measure to shut down the entire economic system is out of proportion and the damage is unheard off since WW2. This price paid is highly irresponsible and the result of manipulation and hysteria I am afraid.

Italy, Iran and also increasingly Spain show that hospitals can become overwhelmed. Japan shows that face masks and good hygiene can prevent that. In any case, it seems possible that the healthcare systems of more countries could become overwhelmed. There have been almost 800 deaths with corona in Italy only recently (compared to 1,750 per day last year from all causes on average).

Nevetheless, the lockdowns are too severe according to many if not most virologists. At the end of the day, it's not like the power elites give a remotest flying fig about human lives. They care about people revolting if there are mass deaths in overcrowded hospitals, and they care about exploiting this crisis for power.

As a contrarian, I do not doubt for a minute people are ill, sick, and will maybe die.  What I suggest this is an Economic War. Folks dying is just a side issue.
Closing down restaurants, movie theatres, travel industry, and all surrounding businesses is harsh!
How will the Administration unwind all of this? How do tell folks the virus is gone and you can go about your business as before?
Will America be the same as before? People working from home. Kids getting educated via internet. The world will change because of these isolation requirements. Maybe a good thing? Maybe a bad thing?

Every scientist and health professional that I have read is gunning for more stringent measures NOW.

happyuk

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #124 on: March 22, 2020, 05:24:06 AM »
If the number of Serious/ Critical cases (breathing machines!) in f.i. Germany (20 and now deleted !), Netherlands 354, UK etc. are correct and so very low , how can we believe that the health system is about to collapse in these countries? The measure to shut down the entire economic system is out of proportion and the damage is unheard off since WW2. This price paid is highly irresponsible and the result of manipulation and hysteria I am afraid.

Italy, Iran and also increasingly Spain show that hospitals can become overwhelmed. Japan shows that face masks and good hygiene can prevent that. In any case, it seems possible that the healthcare systems of more countries could become overwhelmed. There have been almost 800 deaths with corona in Italy only recently (compared to 1,750 per day last year from all causes on average).

Nevetheless, the lockdowns are too severe according to many if not most virologists. At the end of the day, it's not like the power elites give a remotest flying fig about human lives. They care about people revolting if there are mass deaths in overcrowded hospitals, and they care about exploiting this crisis for power.

As a contrarian, I do not doubt for a minute people are ill, sick, and will maybe die.  What I suggest this is an Economic War. Folks dying is just a side issue.
Closing down restaurants, movie theatres, travel industry, and all surrounding businesses is harsh!
How will the Administration unwind all of this? How do tell folks the virus is gone and you can go about your business as before?
Will America be the same as before? People working from home. Kids getting educated via internet. The world will change because of these isolation requirements. Maybe a good thing? Maybe a bad thing?

Every scientist and health professional that I have read is gunning for more stringent measures NOW.

I don't say you intended it like this but--- that is quite an insidious statement.

It is a way of getting people to stop asking questions about this whole thing. That is something I've seen elsewhere from people I trust far less than your average mustachian.   It's also subtle in that you are using guilt-producing language tool --- Oh, you don't believe people are suffering, scared, ill....  I have an engineering PhD and a background in developing clinical coding software, as well as academic research and extensive industry experience.  I can hold my own with these people thank you very much.

In fact, the whole question of "what is real" is really the question. So never, my Mustchian friends, stop asking that question, especially when there's billions of dollars at stake and the very essence of our liberties.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 05:35:42 AM by happyuk »

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #125 on: March 22, 2020, 05:25:03 AM »
If the number of Serious/ Critical cases (breathing machines!) in f.i. Germany (20 and now deleted !), Netherlands 354, UK etc. are correct and so very low , how can we believe that the health system is about to collapse in these countries? The measure to shut down the entire economic system is out of proportion and the damage is unheard off since WW2. This price paid is highly irresponsible and the result of manipulation and hysteria I am afraid.


Just responding to this one because I have a data point here. The NL number is the number of patients in IC. My country has 1100 IC beds, half of which can be reserved for COVID-19 (there will always be other people who need IC after all). That's about 550 IC beds. We're at 354 now and the last two days were both an extra 70 patients. If we continue with those jums (so linear rather than exponential growth) we reach our max in 3 more days. Fortunately hospitals have scaled up their capacity so we should be able to sit it out for another week with some 800-1000 IC beds available (depending on how well they can be staffed..). After that, we'll likely be just another Italy.

I'm not sure how you say there 'the numbers are very low so how can we believe health care systems are about to collaps'. Every calculation I can possibly make tells me the system is going to collapse sooner rather than later.

happyuk

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #126 on: March 22, 2020, 05:30:04 AM »
If the number of Serious/ Critical cases (breathing machines!) in f.i. Germany (20 and now deleted !), Netherlands 354, UK etc. are correct and so very low , how can we believe that the health system is about to collapse in these countries? The measure to shut down the entire economic system is out of proportion and the damage is unheard off since WW2. This price paid is highly irresponsible and the result of manipulation and hysteria I am afraid.


Just responding to this one because I have a data point here. The NL number is the number of patients in IC. My country has 1100 IC beds, half of which can be reserved for COVID-19 (there will always be other people who need IC after all). That's about 550 IC beds. We're at 354 now and the last two days were both an extra 70 patients. If we continue with those jums (so linear rather than exponential growth) we reach our max in 3 more days. Fortunately hospitals have scaled up their capacity so we should be able to sit it out for another week with some 800-1000 IC beds available (depending on how well they can be staffed..). After that, we'll likely be just another Italy.

I'm not sure how you say there 'the numbers are very low so how can we believe health care systems are about to collaps'. Every calculation I can possibly make tells me the system is going to collapse sooner rather than later.

Your basic position is that whether this is down to Corona/Covid19 is not even an issue anymore, Wuhan virus, whatever they've called it.

So the numbers of people they're saying have "it" can't be trusted because IT is not what they're saying IT is.

So how are you determining what's really happening? Whose numbers do you trust? This then seems like a total blind alley. People showing up at hospital could have regular flu, corona, effects of a terrorist bioweapon, PANIC attacks with symptoms, psychosomatic responses, any number of things.

I don't argue with the stuff you just said. But I don't see how numbers of people showing up can tell us that much anymore--unless we're getting deeply truthful reporting. Which we're not.

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #127 on: March 22, 2020, 05:34:45 AM »
If the number of Serious/ Critical cases (breathing machines!) in f.i. Germany (20 and now deleted !), Netherlands 354, UK etc. are correct and so very low , how can we believe that the health system is about to collapse in these countries? The measure to shut down the entire economic system is out of proportion and the damage is unheard off since WW2. This price paid is highly irresponsible and the result of manipulation and hysteria I am afraid.

Italy, Iran and also increasingly Spain show that hospitals can become overwhelmed. Japan shows that face masks and good hygiene can prevent that. In any case, it seems possible that the healthcare systems of more countries could become overwhelmed. There have been almost 800 deaths with corona in Italy only recently (compared to 1,750 per day last year from all causes on average).

Nevetheless, the lockdowns are too severe according to many if not most virologists. At the end of the day, it's not like the power elites give a remotest flying fig about human lives. They care about people revolting if there are mass deaths in overcrowded hospitals, and they care about exploiting this crisis for power.

As a contrarian, I do not doubt for a minute people are ill, sick, and will maybe die.  What I suggest this is an Economic War. Folks dying is just a side issue.
Closing down restaurants, movie theatres, travel industry, and all surrounding businesses is harsh!
How will the Administration unwind all of this? How do tell folks the virus is gone and you can go about your business as before?
Will America be the same as before? People working from home. Kids getting educated via internet. The world will change because of these isolation requirements. Maybe a good thing? Maybe a bad thing?

Every scientist and health professional that I have read is gunning for more stringent measures NOW.

I don't say you intended it like this but--- that is quite an insidious statement.

It is a way of getting people to stop asking questions about this whole thing. That is something I've seen elsewhere from people I trust far less than your average mustachian.   It's also subtle in that you are using guilt-producing language tool --- Oh, you don't believe people are suffering, scared, ill....

In fact, the whole question of "what is real" is really the question. So never, my Mustchian friends, stop asking that question, especially when there's billions of dollars at stake and the very essence of our liberties.

You can ask all the questions you like. You can even keep asking them well after they have been thoroughly answered but you didn't like that answer. The rest of us will take our scientists and researchers seriously, because they know what they're talking about. You're like the one kid in class that delays the entire class leaving by asking questions that are either obvious or already answered. Don't be that kid.

happyuk

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #128 on: March 22, 2020, 05:41:07 AM »
If the number of Serious/ Critical cases (breathing machines!) in f.i. Germany (20 and now deleted !), Netherlands 354, UK etc. are correct and so very low , how can we believe that the health system is about to collapse in these countries? The measure to shut down the entire economic system is out of proportion and the damage is unheard off since WW2. This price paid is highly irresponsible and the result of manipulation and hysteria I am afraid.

Italy, Iran and also increasingly Spain show that hospitals can become overwhelmed. Japan shows that face masks and good hygiene can prevent that. In any case, it seems possible that the healthcare systems of more countries could become overwhelmed. There have been almost 800 deaths with corona in Italy only recently (compared to 1,750 per day last year from all causes on average).

Nevetheless, the lockdowns are too severe according to many if not most virologists. At the end of the day, it's not like the power elites give a remotest flying fig about human lives. They care about people revolting if there are mass deaths in overcrowded hospitals, and they care about exploiting this crisis for power.

As a contrarian, I do not doubt for a minute people are ill, sick, and will maybe die.  What I suggest this is an Economic War. Folks dying is just a side issue.
Closing down restaurants, movie theatres, travel industry, and all surrounding businesses is harsh!
How will the Administration unwind all of this? How do tell folks the virus is gone and you can go about your business as before?
Will America be the same as before? People working from home. Kids getting educated via internet. The world will change because of these isolation requirements. Maybe a good thing? Maybe a bad thing?

Every scientist and health professional that I have read is gunning for more stringent measures NOW.

I don't say you intended it like this but--- that is quite an insidious statement.

It is a way of getting people to stop asking questions about this whole thing. That is something I've seen elsewhere from people I trust far less than your average mustachian.   It's also subtle in that you are using guilt-producing language tool --- Oh, you don't believe people are suffering, scared, ill....

In fact, the whole question of "what is real" is really the question. So never, my Mustchian friends, stop asking that question, especially when there's billions of dollars at stake and the very essence of our liberties.

You can ask all the questions you like. You can even keep asking them well after they have been thoroughly answered but you didn't like that answer. The rest of us will take our scientists and researchers seriously, because they know what they're talking about. You're like the one kid in class that delays the entire class leaving by asking questions that are either obvious or already answered. Don't be that kid.

For your info I do have a solid research background, including numerous journal publications from a previous research career.  I am more than capable of sifting hubris from facts.

You were clearly the kid in class afraid to ask "obvious" questions that nobody else knew the answers to either.  The noddy-dogs as I call them - nodding along in pretend comprehension while never understanding the material.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #129 on: March 22, 2020, 05:46:21 AM »
If the number of Serious/ Critical cases (breathing machines!) in f.i. Germany (20 and now deleted !), Netherlands 354, UK etc. are correct and so very low , how can we believe that the health system is about to collapse in these countries? The measure to shut down the entire economic system is out of proportion and the damage is unheard off since WW2. This price paid is highly irresponsible and the result of manipulation and hysteria I am afraid.

Italy, Iran and also increasingly Spain show that hospitals can become overwhelmed. Japan shows that face masks and good hygiene can prevent that. In any case, it seems possible that the healthcare systems of more countries could become overwhelmed. There have been almost 800 deaths with corona in Italy only recently (compared to 1,750 per day last year from all causes on average).

Nevetheless, the lockdowns are too severe according to many if not most virologists. At the end of the day, it's not like the power elites give a remotest flying fig about human lives. They care about people revolting if there are mass deaths in overcrowded hospitals, and they care about exploiting this crisis for power.

As a contrarian, I do not doubt for a minute people are ill, sick, and will maybe die.  What I suggest this is an Economic War. Folks dying is just a side issue.
Closing down restaurants, movie theatres, travel industry, and all surrounding businesses is harsh!
How will the Administration unwind all of this? How do tell folks the virus is gone and you can go about your business as before?
Will America be the same as before? People working from home. Kids getting educated via internet. The world will change because of these isolation requirements. Maybe a good thing? Maybe a bad thing?

Every scientist and health professional that I have read is gunning for more stringent measures NOW.

I don't say you intended it like this but--- that is quite an insidious statement.

It is a way of getting people to stop asking questions about this whole thing. That is something I've seen elsewhere from people I trust far less than your average mustachian.   It's also subtle in that you are using guilt-producing language tool --- Oh, you don't believe people are suffering, scared, ill....

In fact, the whole question of "what is real" is really the question. So never, my Mustchian friends, stop asking that question, especially when there's billions of dollars at stake and the very essence of our liberties.

You can ask all the questions you like. You can even keep asking them well after they have been thoroughly answered but you didn't like that answer. The rest of us will take our scientists and researchers seriously, because they know what they're talking about. You're like the one kid in class that delays the entire class leaving by asking questions that are either obvious or already answered. Don't be that kid.

For your info I do have a solid research background, including numerous journal publications from a previous research career.  I am more than capable of sifting hubris from facts.

You were clearly the kid in class afraid to ask "obvious" questions that nobody else knew the answers to either.  The noddy-dogs as I call them - nodding along in pretend comprehension while never understanding the material.

I'm not afraid to ask questions. I've been in trouble more times than I can count for asking the wrong question! I think the real difference is that all of this is something I have seen and read about hundreds of times. This is a very familiar situation for me, and I know where it ends up. I haven't seen one single thing so far that doesn't align with every simulation I've been through.

Hirondelle

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #130 on: March 22, 2020, 05:49:15 AM »
If the number of Serious/ Critical cases (breathing machines!) in f.i. Germany (20 and now deleted !), Netherlands 354, UK etc. are correct and so very low , how can we believe that the health system is about to collapse in these countries? The measure to shut down the entire economic system is out of proportion and the damage is unheard off since WW2. This price paid is highly irresponsible and the result of manipulation and hysteria I am afraid.


Just responding to this one because I have a data point here. The NL number is the number of patients in IC. My country has 1100 IC beds, half of which can be reserved for COVID-19 (there will always be other people who need IC after all). That's about 550 IC beds. We're at 354 now and the last two days were both an extra 70 patients. If we continue with those jums (so linear rather than exponential growth) we reach our max in 3 more days. Fortunately hospitals have scaled up their capacity so we should be able to sit it out for another week with some 800-1000 IC beds available (depending on how well they can be staffed..). After that, we'll likely be just another Italy.

I'm not sure how you say there 'the numbers are very low so how can we believe health care systems are about to collaps'. Every calculation I can possibly make tells me the system is going to collapse sooner rather than later.

Your basic position is that whether this is down to Corona/Covid19 is not even an issue anymore, Wuhan virus, whatever they've called it.

So the numbers of people they're saying have "it" can't be trusted because IT is not what they're saying IT is.

So how are you determining what's really happening? Whose numbers do you trust? This then seems like a total blind alley. People showing up at hospital could have regular flu, corona, effects of a terrorist bioweapon, PANIC attacks with symptoms, psychosomatic responses, any number of things.

I don't argue with the stuff you just said. But I don't see how numbers of people showing up can tell us that much anymore--unless we're getting deeply truthful reporting. Which we're not.

happyuk, I'm not sure what you're asking here?

I say that the number of people on IC due to coronavirus (so, a positive corona test and they are being treated for corona not sth else) is currently 354. Every day they update this number with the new corona patients admitted to the IC. People on IC for other reasons do not get reported.

I don't know what you mean with 'numbers of people showing up'? There are not people showing up at the hospital with a panick attack asking to go into IC on a ventilator after which authorities claim it's corona.. Not sure where you got that theory from...

I get numbers from my own employer (the regional hospital) every single day. They have about 0 reasons to lie about these numbers, but if you want I can call my nurse friend who works at the IC and ask if she can count the number of patients for you.

Polaria

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #131 on: March 22, 2020, 07:16:42 AM »
Belgium: 1,380 hospitalized, 290 in IC. We’re following the Italian pattern so far in term of deaths (75).

On a more positive note 340 hospitalized people have recovered and left the hospital since the 13th of March.

Abe

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #132 on: March 22, 2020, 07:27:29 AM »
If the number of Serious/ Critical cases (breathing machines!) in f.i. Germany (20 and now deleted !), Netherlands 354, UK etc. are correct and so very low , how can we believe that the health system is about to collapse in these countries? The measure to shut down the entire economic system is out of proportion and the damage is unheard off since WW2. This price paid is highly irresponsible and the result of manipulation and hysteria I am afraid.


Just responding to this one because I have a data point here. The NL number is the number of patients in IC. My country has 1100 IC beds, half of which can be reserved for COVID-19 (there will always be other people who need IC after all). That's about 550 IC beds. We're at 354 now and the last two days were both an extra 70 patients. If we continue with those jums (so linear rather than exponential growth) we reach our max in 3 more days. Fortunately hospitals have scaled up their capacity so we should be able to sit it out for another week with some 800-1000 IC beds available (depending on how well they can be staffed..). After that, we'll likely be just another Italy.

I'm not sure how you say there 'the numbers are very low so how can we believe health care systems are about to collaps'. Every calculation I can possibly make tells me the system is going to collapse sooner rather than later.

Your basic position is that whether this is down to Corona/Covid19 is not even an issue anymore, Wuhan virus, whatever they've called it.

So the numbers of people they're saying have "it" can't be trusted because IT is not what they're saying IT is.

So how are you determining what's really happening? Whose numbers do you trust? This then seems like a total blind alley. People showing up at hospital could have regular flu, corona, effects of a terrorist bioweapon, PANIC attacks with symptoms, psychosomatic responses, any number of things.

I don't argue with the stuff you just said. But I don't see how numbers of people showing up can tell us that much anymore--unless we're getting deeply truthful reporting. Which we're not.

happyuk, I'm not sure what you're asking here?

I say that the number of people on IC due to coronavirus (so, a positive corona test and they are being treated for corona not sth else) is currently 354. Every day they update this number with the new corona patients admitted to the IC. People on IC for other reasons do not get reported.

I don't know what you mean with 'numbers of people showing up'? There are not people showing up at the hospital with a panick attack asking to go into IC on a ventilator after which authorities claim it's corona.. Not sure where you got that theory from...

I get numbers from my own employer (the regional hospital) every single day. They have about 0 reasons to lie about these numbers, but if you want I can call my nurse friend who works at the IC and ask if she can count the number of patients for you.

To be clear, psychosomatic disorders and panic attacks don’t result in respiratory failure. Also less likely are an undetected global terrorist attack that no group has claimed credit for. Influenza season is nearly over so a spike now would be extremely unlikely (though one in February not surprising). I do agree the number of infected is likely an underestimate, but I trust the number of patients in the ICU and dead because those are easy to determine. As someone who is actually dealing with the fallout and whose wife lost her job from this, I still agree with the measures being taken.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 07:45:38 AM by Abe »

T-Money$

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #133 on: March 22, 2020, 07:48:00 AM »
Belgium: 1,380 hospitalized, 290 in IC. We’re following the Italian pattern so far in term of deaths (75).

On a more positive note 340 hospitalized people have recovered and left the hospital since the 13th of March.

Statistics show Beligum currently has a death rate that is 1/6 what Italy has.  What pattern were you referring to?

The current death rate of those tested in Belgium is about 2%, in Italy it is over 8%.  Also, Belgians are about 5 years younger than the average Italian with lower rates of smoking, less poverty and overall better health.

There is no country in the world that is mimicking the death rate in Italy.  None. 

Abe

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #134 on: March 22, 2020, 07:57:01 AM »
I think a more salient point has been raised: absolute number of ICU beds. Part of The reason the death rate has been so high in Italy is relative lack of critical care vs number of patients. As one would expect, if the number of critically ill infected people exceeds the ventilator capacity, then deaths will climb significantly. That’s my (and most physicians’) main concern.

Abe

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #135 on: March 22, 2020, 07:59:18 AM »
Also Spain and France’s death rates are over 5% of confirmed cases, not as high as Italy’s 8% but still concerning.

ender

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #136 on: March 22, 2020, 08:11:15 AM »
Belgium: 1,380 hospitalized, 290 in IC. We’re following the Italian pattern so far in term of deaths (75).

On a more positive note 340 hospitalized people have recovered and left the hospital since the 13th of March.

Statistics show Beligum currently has a death rate that is 1/6 what Italy has.  What pattern were you referring to?

The current death rate of those tested in Belgium is about 2%, in Italy it is over 8%.  Also, Belgians are about 5 years younger than the average Italian with lower rates of smoking, less poverty and overall better health.

There is no country in the world that is mimicking the death rate in Italy.  None.

Keep in mind testing methodology is going to heavily influence death rate.


Polaria

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #137 on: March 22, 2020, 08:40:23 AM »
Belgium: 1,380 hospitalized, 290 in IC. We’re following the Italian pattern so far in term of deaths (75).

On a more positive note 340 hospitalized people have recovered and left the hospital since the 13th of March.

Statistics show Beligum currently has a death rate that is 1/6 what Italy has.  What pattern were you referring to?

The current death rate of those tested in Belgium is about 2%, in Italy it is over 8%.  Also, Belgians are about 5 years younger than the average Italian with lower rates of smoking, less poverty and overall better health.

There is no country in the world that is mimicking the death rate in Italy.  None.

Keep in mind testing methodology is going to heavily influence death rate.

@egillespie I am just relaying the info from the Belgian medias. This is the pattern they’re referring to. It seems that it is gonna be the ugliest in Spain.

Frankly this is why I am posting as least as possible on the MMM forums, because most often than not I have to build a Ph.D. case following my posts. /rant over.

« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 09:02:37 AM by Polaria »

BostonBrit

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #138 on: March 22, 2020, 09:10:38 AM »
Another way to look at it, and even further suggest that we are currently on a completely different death trajectory compared to italy is to forget about choosing 1,000 cases as the starting point, and instead choose something that is independent of the sketchyness that was early testing (a fair criticism of my initial method).  Let's look at change in deaths 16 days after first report 11 deaths (common number between the two countries).  Deaths are something that should be very well documented:

USA:
11 Deaths March 4
256 Deaths March 20 (16 Days later)

Italy:
11 Deaths Feb 25
1,016 March 12 (16 Days Later)

Holy shit folks!

I think you're slightly missing the point on this with regards the concentration of cases. Each city/region will have it s own epidemiological curve.

Nearly 50% of current cases are all in Lombardy which has an area 20% of NY state whereas the US stats you are comparing are across an entire continent. The big issue and higher mortality rates come when you run out of hospital beds in your system (and so the definition/denominator of that system is important).

For better results, I would suggest you need to compare either:

a) Whole of Europe vs US.
b) Italy vs a single state.

Many flaws in my analysis above but directionally better.

mistymoney

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #139 on: March 22, 2020, 09:59:19 AM »
Don’t get me wrong, I think the economic damage will be quite high and long term human toll will not be as high as some project. However, what a lot of those projections don’t take into account are secondary deaths due to the pandemic, including patients who are in critical condition for unrelated reasons yet can’t be treated. That is obviously hard to determine but congestive heart failure, heart attack and COPD mortality are all inversely correlated with adequate critical care.

likely a huge decrease in accidental death - car accidents, and any sports/recreation related - like skiing.

Kiki the witch

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #140 on: March 22, 2020, 10:13:10 AM »
Hi. I'm Italian and live in Italy, I have been reading MMM for a while, I've never written because I had nothing meaningful to add. But now I think it can be useful if I gave some information abount the current situation in Italy, since many people seem (rightly) puzzled.

The official numbers in Italy are completely useless. Currently the only people who get tested are the ones with severe symptomps and people in key roles (health service, military, etc.). We have NO idea on the real extension of the epidemic in the country.
If you are sick but you are in no apparent life treatening situation you are told to self-isolate and no one will test you, even if you live in a badly hit area and you develop an high fever. (I will not go into the reasons behind this policy.)
My guess is that the real number of sick people is at least ten times the official number.
This would partly explain the abnormal mortality rate in Italy and the high median age of the positive tests.

This does not mean that the situation is better than you have been told.
The army trucks in the photo are leaving the town of Bergamo, one of the worse hit in the country. They are taking the remains of I do not know how many people to other towns to be cremated, because the morgues in Bergamo are not coping.

I know that many people outside Italy think we live in the medieval ages, playing the mandolin and eating pizza. We don't. The worst affected area, the region around Milan, is the richest and more developed area in the country, its health system is excellent (and free), comparable to the German or French one. And it is not coping.

We realized that we were in the middle of this crisis too late, too late. Now 5.000 people are dead, many more will die, the country is paralized and the economy in ruins, probabily for many years.
Please, rest of the western world, learn from our mistakes. You are a few weeks behind us, you can stop everything and restart later, with less deaths, less damages to the economy, less trauma.

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #141 on: March 22, 2020, 10:38:35 AM »
If the number of Serious/ Critical cases (breathing machines!) in f.i. Germany (20 and now deleted !), Netherlands 354, UK etc. are correct and so very low , how can we believe that the health system is about to collapse in these countries? The measure to shut down the entire economic system is out of proportion and the damage is unheard off since WW2. This price paid is highly irresponsible and the result of manipulation and hysteria I am afraid.

Italy, Iran and also increasingly Spain show that hospitals can become overwhelmed. Japan shows that face masks and good hygiene can prevent that. In any case, it seems possible that the healthcare systems of more countries could become overwhelmed. There have been almost 800 deaths with corona in Italy only recently (compared to 1,750 per day last year from all causes on average).

Nevetheless, the lockdowns are too severe according to many if not most virologists. At the end of the day, it's not like the power elites give a remotest flying fig about human lives. They care about people revolting if there are mass deaths in overcrowded hospitals, and they care about exploiting this crisis for power.

As a contrarian, I do not doubt for a minute people are ill, sick, and will maybe die.  What I suggest this is an Economic War. Folks dying is just a side issue.
Closing down restaurants, movie theatres, travel industry, and all surrounding businesses is harsh!
How will the Administration unwind all of this? How do tell folks the virus is gone and you can go about your business as before?
Will America be the same as before? People working from home. Kids getting educated via internet. The world will change because of these isolation requirements. Maybe a good thing? Maybe a bad thing?

Every scientist and health professional that I have read is gunning for more stringent measures NOW.
I don't say you intended it like this but--- that is quite an insidious statement.

It is a way of getting people to stop asking questions about this whole thing. That is something I've seen elsewhere from people I trust far less than your average mustachian.   It's also subtle in that you are using guilt-producing language tool --- Oh, you don't believe people are suffering, scared, ill....

In fact, the whole question of "what is real" is really the question. So never, my Mustchian friends, stop asking that question, especially when there's billions of dollars at stake and the very essence of our liberties.

You can ask all the questions you like. You can even keep asking them well after they have been thoroughly answered but you didn't like that answer. The rest of us will take our scientists and researchers seriously, because they know what they're talking about. You're like the one kid in class that delays the entire class leaving by asking questions that are either obvious or already answered. Don't be that kid.

For your info I do have a solid research background, including numerous journal publications from a previous research career.  I am more than capable of sifting hubris from facts.

You were clearly the kid in class afraid to ask "obvious" questions that nobody else knew the answers to either.  The noddy-dogs as I call them - nodding along in pretend comprehension while never understanding the material.

See also Dunning_Krueger effect in which a person over estimates their knowledge and ability in a subject. I also have a doctorate, many peer reviewed publications and live with an MD who is in a hospital on the front lines of the coronavirus pandemic. I tons of access to ancillary information. I place my trust in the world class epidemiologist that I know with deep subject knowledge (who has been working himself to a nub the last few weeks providing technical assistance to many agencies the last few weeks).

TLDR: beware your own blinders. A predisposition to distrust all data because some is uncertain or bad should not preclude the ability to make decisions. The data are most useful when viewed as bounding cases. The bounding scenarios are all pretty bad. The course of action is actually pretty clear and is a selection of “least bad” options. There are no good outcomes, just choosing how much damage we will get.

fattest_foot

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #142 on: March 22, 2020, 11:11:10 AM »
The official numbers in Italy are completely useless. Currently the only people who get tested are the ones with severe symptomps and people in key roles (health service, military, etc.). We have NO idea on the real extension of the epidemic in the country.

You can basically say that about every country right now. Even with the flu, we only have a range of estimated cases, and that's based on decades of historical data.

During the midst of this outbreak, all of the numbers we have are meaningless because they're all based on tested individuals.

ender

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #143 on: March 22, 2020, 11:15:40 AM »
TLDR: beware your own blinders. A predisposition to distrust all data because some is uncertain or bad should not preclude the ability to make decisions. The data are most useful when viewed as bounding cases. The bounding scenarios are all pretty bad. The course of action is actually pretty clear and is a selection of “least bad” options. There are no good outcomes, just choosing how much damage we will get.

My least favorite part of figuring out what is going on is how many social media experts there are.

Filtering out the media storm to see who actually knows what they are talking about vs the armchair quarterbacks is tricky this time around. Between the news media and social media, there seem to be more people speaking authoritatively than I ever thought possible!

runbikerun

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #144 on: March 22, 2020, 03:02:57 PM »
If the number of Serious/ Critical cases (breathing machines!) in f.i. Germany (20 and now deleted !), Netherlands 354, UK etc. are correct and so very low , how can we believe that the health system is about to collapse in these countries? The measure to shut down the entire economic system is out of proportion and the damage is unheard off since WW2. This price paid is highly irresponsible and the result of manipulation and hysteria I am afraid.

Italy, Iran and also increasingly Spain show that hospitals can become overwhelmed. Japan shows that face masks and good hygiene can prevent that. In any case, it seems possible that the healthcare systems of more countries could become overwhelmed. There have been almost 800 deaths with corona in Italy only recently (compared to 1,750 per day last year from all causes on average).

Nevetheless, the lockdowns are too severe according to many if not most virologists. At the end of the day, it's not like the power elites give a remotest flying fig about human lives. They care about people revolting if there are mass deaths in overcrowded hospitals, and they care about exploiting this crisis for power.

As a contrarian, I do not doubt for a minute people are ill, sick, and will maybe die.  What I suggest this is an Economic War. Folks dying is just a side issue.
Closing down restaurants, movie theatres, travel industry, and all surrounding businesses is harsh!
How will the Administration unwind all of this? How do tell folks the virus is gone and you can go about your business as before?
Will America be the same as before? People working from home. Kids getting educated via internet. The world will change because of these isolation requirements. Maybe a good thing? Maybe a bad thing?

Every scientist and health professional that I have read is gunning for more stringent measures NOW.

I don't say you intended it like this but--- that is quite an insidious statement.

It is a way of getting people to stop asking questions about this whole thing. That is something I've seen elsewhere from people I trust far less than your average mustachian.   It's also subtle in that you are using guilt-producing language tool --- Oh, you don't believe people are suffering, scared, ill....  I have an engineering PhD and a background in developing clinical coding software, as well as academic research and extensive industry experience.  I can hold my own with these people thank you very much.

In fact, the whole question of "what is real" is really the question. So never, my Mustchian friends, stop asking that question, especially when there's billions of dollars at stake and the very essence of our liberties.

I am not an epidemiologist. I do not have a research background. I do, however, have a pretty decent record in competitive university-level debating, first as a competitor, then as an adjudicator.

If person A says "many experts are saying X" and person B says "every expert I've seen has said the exact opposite", then you can tell quite a lot from person A's response. If they provide details of the experts and ideally provide some info about what percentage of experts are indeed saying X, then as an adjudicator I think that at the very least they've built a positive case for their statement. If instead of doing this, they cast aspersions on the motivations of person B and talking about "guilt-producing language tools", I am going to assume that they are talking absolute bollocks unless they pull out some absolutely fantastic arguments following on from that.

I have not yet seen these fantastic arguments.

happyuk

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #145 on: March 22, 2020, 03:20:04 PM »
I'm suggesting that there has to be balance between facing our fears with courage and resolve and denying them altogether... We are being told 80% of people (and presumably throughout the world) will contract COVID-19:

https://www.the-sun.com/news/574277/new-york-cuomo-slams-groups-mnuchin-warns-12-weeks/

We are being told to prepare for lockdown for the rest of the year, with little or no means for the average person to provide for or to protect themselves.

I will tell anyone who is seriously considering this as a viable solution, it will absolutely not fly.  If we accept this solution, society will collapse well before the virus takes its course and we the people will be subject to a fascist geopolitical bureaucratic/dictatorship tasked to manage the crisis. I see no other logical outcome. I can almost promise authoritarian government will come to pass well before the virus clears through the population, as there will be no other way to manage the ensuing chaos... People without food, shelter, clothing, and the basic resources for survival will demand it. With guns and baseball bats....

In this setup, many, many more people will die from democide and societal collapse than from the virus.

Alternatively:

We can endure a brief shutdown to catch our breath--maybe two weeks maximum, and with a clear end date--and then reboot the economy come hell or high water.

Yes, some people will still contract the virus and some people will still die. I am not suggesting the government (governments are servants of the people) sit back and do nothing to combat the pandemic... nor do we sit back and go about our business and hope herd immunity takes hold without any planning; if this is a crisis, real or promulgated, I'm suggesting we aggressively mobilize the economy, similar to WWII, and stop producing cell phones, flat-screens and sports cars (I'm sure you can think of other things) and focus our collective effort on producing the following:

Mass production of ventilators
Mass production of hospital beds and necessary infrastructure to accommodate a real set of data of those who will need medical assistance.
Medical training/voluntary assistance on a mass scale

This, of course, is just the beginning of what the economy will need to produce at record pace to tackle this crisis. But this is what we should be focusing on, not shutting down the economy altogether.

Remember, most people will recover from this illness, but 20% may need hospitalisation and 5% may need critical care... that's the problem. But that's a problem our collective ingenuity and resolve can solve. We did it in WWII, and we can do it again.

Our economy has the ability to mass produce smart phones and automobiles and flat screen TVs for every individual (with stockholder's deadlines in mind); if we switch gears now, with humanitarian deadlines instead, and with the fervour and the full might of the government behind a new directive, we should be able to remobilise production to accommodate the sick. We should then let the virus do as it will. Most well recover and do just fine--those at the highest risk will need to take precautions per the guidelines.

Is there really any other way to tackle this without losing our countries, our liberties, our very way way of life?

If we execute this approach we may just find less people perish from this thing than from tuberculosis, cancer, heart disease, car accidents... and yes, even the flu.

Whatever the case, a nine-month lockdown/allowing for global economic collapse/ushering in government assistance for our very survival (with conditions)/Marshal Law, ensuing hyperinflation, etc., etc., is not the answer.

Throwing out Constitutional Government is not the answer..

runbikerun

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #146 on: March 22, 2020, 03:36:17 PM »
Absolutely none of what you said related even slightly to the point I made.

You claimed that many if not most virologists were saying the lockdowns were too severe, and when AnnaGrowsAMustache pointed out that every scientist and health professional she had seen or heard was advocating even more stringent measures, you wrote almost a hundred and forty words of vaguely accusatory rhetoric without offering any kind of an explanation for your accusations or simply naming some of the virologists who are apparently on record as saying the current lockdowns are too severe. When I pointed this out, you then responded with over six hundred words of vague rhetoric about how we need to "reboot the economy".

You still haven't named any of these virologists.

Your argument is terrible aside from that, but right now I'm just really annoyed that you're engaging in cheaply dishonest rhetoric.

runbikerun

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #147 on: March 22, 2020, 03:38:07 PM »
As for the idea that we can completely retool the global economy in a matter of weeks to increase medical capacity by perhaps 500-600% across the world all at once...words fail me.

Viking Thor

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #148 on: March 22, 2020, 04:01:23 PM »
I think the consensus is to have a period of social distancing. However the experts are much less predicting doomsday scenarios and are questioning whether it's worth destroying the economy for a long time period.

Essentially the experts are saying we need more data to figure out the health impacts before we shut down the economy for a lengthy time period (i.e months or years) and cause significant harm.

Here is one example:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

Below is an example of what the expert Epidemiology Researchers in the U.S. say about the # of deaths which they collectively estimate ranging from 4k to 1.2M with an average of 200k. But essentially saying we need more data.

Before all the unscientific haters / mob come out - I am not saying to do nothing. But the actual scientists say we don't know if this will produce bad flu type numbers or huge fatalities. Before shutting down for 5 months and causing great depression 2.0 we should shut down for a few weeks and re-evaluate societal cost benefit of doing so.

Here is summary of a survey of the expert epidemiologists in the U.S.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/infectious-disease-experts-dont-know-how-bad-the-coronavirus-is-going-to-get-either/

bmjohnson35

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Re: COVID-19 CONTRARIANS
« Reply #149 on: March 22, 2020, 04:24:45 PM »
Thank you for taking the time to share this information.

BJ


Hi. I'm Italian and live in Italy, I have been reading MMM for a while, I've never written because I had nothing meaningful to add. But now I think it can be useful if I gave some information abount the current situation in Italy, since many people seem (rightly) puzzled.

The official numbers in Italy are completely useless. Currently the only people who get tested are the ones with severe symptomps and people in key roles (health service, military, etc.). We have NO idea on the real extension of the epidemic in the country.
If you are sick but you are in no apparent life treatening situation you are told to self-isolate and no one will test you, even if you live in a badly hit area and you develop an high fever. (I will not go into the reasons behind this policy.)
My guess is that the real number of sick people is at least ten times the official number.
This would partly explain the abnormal mortality rate in Italy and the high median age of the positive tests.

This does not mean that the situation is better than you have been told.
The army trucks in the photo are leaving the town of Bergamo, one of the worse hit in the country. They are taking the remains of I do not know how many people to other towns to be cremated, because the morgues in Bergamo are not coping.

I know that many people outside Italy think we live in the medieval ages, playing the mandolin and eating pizza. We don't. The worst affected area, the region around Milan, is the richest and more developed area in the country, its health system is excellent (and free), comparable to the German or French one. And it is not coping.

We realized that we were in the middle of this crisis too late, too late. Now 5.000 people are dead, many more will die, the country is paralized and the economy in ruins, probabily for many years.
Please, rest of the western world, learn from our mistakes. You are a few weeks behind us, you can stop everything and restart later, with less deaths, less damages to the economy, less trauma.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!