COVID-19 CONTRARIANS

[happyuk]

I'm still on the fence with this. On the one hand, considering the low fatality numbers compared to other diseases it seems that what makes this whole corona shebang so real are the political shutdowns of public life and the manufactured hysteria. On the other hand, I don't wanna be irresponsible in face of a virus that does have severe health effects and does kill people, even though it's not on a mass scale.  I thought I would start a thread to collect information from researchers and medical experts who argue that the panic is overblown from a medical point of view and that we should be more concerned with the negative consequences for civil liberties.

What ensues from "panic" and having our government "help" is unlikely to help. They are already in a wad about the "known flus", and are not in a position and/or are unable to help much on this. About the only way they can possibly help anything is to lock up criminals, which they are also not very good at.

There are more medical experts in Germany coming out saying that the panic is completely overblown. One is Prof. Dr. Karin Mölling, former Director of the Institute of Virology at the University of Zürich. An interview with her appeared in the German state radio which adds on its website that Mölling is "cynical" because you can't compare the numbers of corona deaths to the death toll of other diseases. Why not? Isn't that exactly what you do? The radio says that old people are at greater risk. That's true, but that's also the case with the flu. Mölling says she's flabbergasted by what's going on and considering the current political climate, she'd have to fear for her job if she wasn't retired already.

Wolfgang Wodarg, physician:

https://youtu.be/p_AyuhbnPOI

Drew Pinsky, physician:

What I have a problem with is the panic and the fact that businesses are getting destroyed and people’s lives are being upended. Not by the virus, but by the panic,” he explained. “The panic must stop, and the press, they really, somehow, need to be held accountable, because they are hurting people.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/10/dr-drew-says-press-should-be-held-accountable-for-/?fbclid=IwAR1rklnB0AlsD2uZv8uwMB9FpwHk_5VY9eb3lDfDy3W-lK8hFtvqN-h5z3k

Shiva Ayyadurai, biological engineer:

As an MIT PhD in Biological Engineering who studies & does research nearly every day on the Immune System, the #coronavirus fear mongering by the Deep State will go down in history as one of the biggest fraud to manipulate economies, suppress dissent, & push MANDATED Medicine!

https://techstartups.com/2020/03/12/mit-biologist-says-fear-mongering-coronavirus-will-go-biggest-fraud-manipulate-economies/?fbclid=IwAR1qa5mH1k2AGZdmTV2_Qy_pyn6jnDgdt5PCDw24bs5N0BziUZJmI8c5X8M

William Briggs, Statistician

https://wmbriggs.com/post/29186/

Two years ago was twice as bad as this year’s horrible numbers. But I don’t recall a panic then, and there isn’t one now, either. About the flu. Importantly, there weren’t any travel restrictions or extraordinary measures taken to contain the flu then or now, yet the flu each year, as it does, burned itself out for all the reasons you already know (it gets warmer, people go outside, etc.).

Remember when an epidemic was more than a tiny portion of the population and the death rate well over 50%. Seems we managed to wipe out all the big scary diseases, so now we have to exaggerate and wring hands over everything. A measles epidemic is less than 100 people in a country of 330 million. We are terrified of tiny insects, having defeated the giants.

[mathlete]

Dr Drew is a pop science doctor famous for starring in "Celebrity Rehab". Shiva Ayyadurai rants about the Deep State on twitter all day while running what appears to be a spectacle of a Senate campaign in Massachusetts. He also flirts with anitvaxx and "vaccine skepticism".

The opinions of these two guys can be summarily dismissed.

[innkeeper77]

Yes the death toll is "low"- but even this low fatality rate is orders of magnitude higher than anything else developed nations have to deal with. It's on the risk order of living in an active warzone. The disease is MUCH more virulent than the flu, combined with our population having NO immunity to it. It's much easier to get, spread, and die from than anything else we have to worry about, and it is VERY deadly for at risk demographics.

The big reason governments are acting isn't to prevent the spread- it will happen at this point- it's to slow it down preventing hospitals from running out of capacity. Once hospitals have no more space, the bad cases have to fight each other for equipment and care, and doctors have to choose who gets care and who does not. This is already happening it Italy. Once that happens, death tolls skyrocket.

So yes, most people who get it will be just fine staying home and sleeping it off- but the subset of cases that are severe make this a BIG DEAL.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca - read this article. It covers the pressure on the healthcare system, even accounting for the vast majority of cases being mild.

[OtherJen]

I have a PhD in immunology. My grad school friends and professors from our microbiology and immunology department are taking this seriously. I work as a science and medical editor and have read some of the clinical literature. Just because the death rate is not as high as those associated with some other diseases, don't kid yourself that this isn't serious. Left unchecked, it will overwhelm medical facilities and resources quickly, as it did in Hubei Province, China and is currently doing in Italy, Iran, Spain, Washington State, USA, and other places.

This is a highly contagious pathogen to which no one has natural immunity and 15-20% of detected cases are sick enough to require medical treatment. In the most severe cases (roughly 5%), that's mechanical ventilation under isolation conditions for weeks. If the last SARS is any indication, some people will have permanent lung damage.

Believe what you want, but don't impose your beliefs on others by putting them at risk. Social restrictions haven't been imposed without a lot of forethought.

[Archipelago]

This is definitely a serious situation but the media is not doing us any favors. They are corporations that post sensational stories to drive ad revenue. No surprise there. Same goes for any sort of political discourse covered by the media.

Not only that, but certain social media companies e.g. Facebook have created algorithms that collect user data and use it to drive maximum user interaction. So if panic over this virus drives additional ad revenue, it only perpetuates a positive feedback loop.

If that isn’t scary then I don’t know what is.

[Sibley]

HappyUK - you are welcome to be skeptical. My parents certainly are. However, please come back here in 2 weeks and update us as to the state of your skepticism. Because I suspect that 2 weeks ago, many people in Italy thought exactly as you do. And now their medical system is overwhelmed.

[mathlete]

This is definitely a serious situation but the media is not doing us any favors. They are corporations that post sensational stories to drive ad revenue. No surprise there. Same goes for any sort of political discourse covered by the media.

Not only that, but certain social media companies e.g. Facebook have created algorithms that collect user data and use it to drive maximum user interaction. So if panic over this virus drives additional ad revenue, it only perpetuates a positive feedback loop.

If that isn’t scary then I don’t know what is.

Sure they are. They're broadcasting and rebroadcasting closures and recommended measures from authorities like the WHO and the CDC. As far as I know, no reputable media outlet is telling people to stock up on toilet paper. The President issued statements on Wednesday and Friday that were riddled with inaccuracies and confusing messaging. The media has been doing its job of fact checking those and trying to get clarity.

These services are invaluable.

[Archipelago]

I have a PhD in immunology. My grad school friends and professors from our microbiology and immunology department are taking this seriously. I work as a science and medical editor and have read some of the clinical literature. Just because the death rate is not as high as those associated with some other diseases, don't kid yourself that this isn't serious. Left unchecked, it will overwhelm medical facilities and resources quickly, as it did in Hubei Province, China and is currently doing in Italy, Iran, Spain, Washington State, USA, and other places.

This is a highly contagious pathogen to which no one has natural immunity and 15-20% of detected cases are sick enough to require medical treatment. In the most severe cases (roughly 5%), that's mechanical ventilation under isolation conditions for weeks. If the last SARS is any indication, some people will have permanent lung damage.

Believe what you want, but don't impose your beliefs on others by putting them at risk. Social restrictions haven't been imposed without a lot of forethought.

Would you be willing to provide commentary on this coronavirus situation in relation to H1N1, which was about a decade ago? I know comparing it to the flu is not an apples to apples comparison but I’m interested in hearing your opinion.

[Body Surfer]

Yes we should take this situation seriously. The truth is we don't know how this started. Many believe this virus was bio-engineered in a lab, which if true, can have horrifying results. At minimum COVID-19 is stronger than the typical flu variants we are more familiar with. The experts believe most of us will get through this healthy.

I do agree with many folks that the media in general is unethical and cannot be trusted. May believe the media caused a panic. My family ignores the national media as best we can.

[alcon835]

For a quarantine to be effective, it needs to happen at the point where it feels both unnecessary and overblown. If it works, those feelings will appear completely justified.

So why are the decisions being made good ones? Look at Italy. Italy actively ignored the problem and refused to act. Their death tool is dramatically higher than the global average because of it.

I think that alone proves we should take the situation seriously and put up with overall unnecessary restrictions. I've chosen to self-quarantine for the next few weeks since I may have been exposed recently.

[Archipelago]

This is definitely a serious situation but the media is not doing us any favors. They are corporations that post sensational stories to drive ad revenue. No surprise there. Same goes for any sort of political discourse covered by the media.

Not only that, but certain social media companies e.g. Facebook have created algorithms that collect user data and use it to drive maximum user interaction. So if panic over this virus drives additional ad revenue, it only perpetuates a positive feedback loop.

If that isn’t scary then I don’t know what is.

Sure they are. They're broadcasting and rebroadcasting closures and recommended measures from authorities like the WHO and the CDC. As far as I know, no reputable media outlet is telling people to stock up on toilet paper. The President issued statements on Wednesday and Friday that were riddled with inaccuracies and confusing messaging. The media has been doing its job of fact checking those and trying to get clarity.

These services are invaluable.

My statement was not a blanket statement about all media companies. Any reputable news outlet worth their salt is fact checking and broadcasting useful information to the general public, not instilling mass panic. What about those that do not? Where do you draw the line?

[elaine amj]

I have a PhD in immunology. My grad school friends and professors from our microbiology and immunology department are taking this seriously. I work as a science and medical editor and have read some of the clinical literature. Just because the death rate is not as high as those associated with some other diseases, don't kid yourself that this isn't serious. Left unchecked, it will overwhelm medical facilities and resources quickly, as it did in Hubei Province, China and is currently doing in Italy, Iran, Spain, Washington State, USA, and other places.

This is a highly contagious pathogen to which no one has natural immunity and 15-20% of detected cases are sick enough to require medical treatment. In the most severe cases (roughly 5%), that's mechanical ventilation under isolation conditions for weeks. If the last SARS is any indication, some people will have permanent lung damage.

Believe what you want, but don't impose your beliefs on others by putting them at risk. Social restrictions haven't been imposed without a lot of forethought.

Thank you - this was very helpful. We want to be wise and responsible without descending into silly hysteria. Self quarantining is making more and more sense.

We cancelled a trip to a cottage a few hours away as it felt unwise to travel so far  DH is now wondering if a cottage 45 mins away would be ok. I don't know - trying to get as educated as I can before we make a decision.

Sent from my VCE-AL00 using Tapatalk

[Dancin'Dog]

I have a PhD in immunology. My grad school friends and professors from our microbiology and immunology department are taking this seriously. I work as a science and medical editor and have read some of the clinical literature. Just because the death rate is not as high as those associated with some other diseases, don't kid yourself that this isn't serious. Left unchecked, it will overwhelm medical facilities and resources quickly, as it did in Hubei Province, China and is currently doing in Italy, Iran, Spain, Washington State, USA, and other places.

This is a highly contagious pathogen to which no one has natural immunity and 15-20% of detected cases are sick enough to require medical treatment. In the most severe cases (roughly 5%), that's mechanical ventilation under isolation conditions for weeks. If the last SARS is any indication, some people will have permanent lung damage.

Believe what you want, but don't impose your beliefs on others by putting them at risk. Social restrictions haven't been imposed without a lot of forethought.

Thanks for your professional reply.  It really helps the uninformed grasp the true serious nature of what we are, and will be, facing.  We've had a "fake news" president lying to us for 3.5 years and don't know who or what to believe anymore. 


Hopefully, this will be the wake-up call that America needs to listen to our scientists.  We'll still have to face global warming after Coronavirus is contained. 

[American GenX]

I keep wondering when the deniers are going to snap out of it.  It shouldn't be much longer.  I think Trump is even starting to get it a little bit, although he really only cares about himself.

[bacchi]

For fucks' sake.

Can we sponsor "It's a hoax!" skeptics for a vacation in Italy?

Or can we pay for a Deep State cruise? Load them all up and they can spin their conspiracy theories as they munch on the all-you-can-eat buffets.

[Hula Hoop]

I have a PhD in immunology. My grad school friends and professors from our microbiology and immunology department are taking this seriously. I work as a science and medical editor and have read some of the clinical literature. Just because the death rate is not as high as those associated with some other diseases, don't kid yourself that this isn't serious. Left unchecked, it will overwhelm medical facilities and resources quickly, as it did in Hubei Province, China and is currently doing in Italy, Iran, Spain, Washington State, USA, and other places.

This is a highly contagious pathogen to which no one has natural immunity and 15-20% of detected cases are sick enough to require medical treatment. In the most severe cases (roughly 5%), that's mechanical ventilation under isolation conditions for weeks. If the last SARS is any indication, some people will have permanent lung damage.

Believe what you want, but don't impose your beliefs on others by putting them at risk. Social restrictions haven't been imposed without a lot of forethought.

Thanks for your professional reply.  It really helps the uninformed grasp the true serious nature of what we are, and will be, facing.  We've had a "fake news" president lying to us for 3.5 years and don't know who or what to believe anymore. 


Hopefully, this will be the wake-up call that America needs to listen to our scientists.  We'll still have to face global warming after Coronavirus is contained.

Thanks to both of you for your well thought out and rational replies.  I'm writing this from Italy where I'm on full lock down with my family and I had some not-so-nice things I wanted to write in my reply but your reply was much better. 

to the OP  - please educate yourself about this virus.  Yes it might not kill you or me (or actually it might kill me as I have a medical condition which puts me at higher risk than most people my age) but it will kill an awful lot of people especially if we don't 'flatten the curve' by practicing social isolation.  Please read about what is going on in northern Italy right now where the hospitals are mobbed and there aren't enough ventilators to go around.  Doctors are being forced to make decisions about who gets a machine (and therefore has a chance of surviving) and who doesn't.  These doctors are exhibiting signs of PTSD.  I could go on but I won't.  Similar things happened to China.  These things very well might happen where you live soon unless your government acts.

[StashingAway]

Yes we should take this situation seriously. The truth is we don't know how this started. Many believe this virus was bio-engineered in a lab, which if true, can have horrifying results.

They have traced it back to a particular meat market back in November using gene sequencing. The nature of coronavirus' is that most of them are zoonotic and jump from wild host animals to humans, in which some of them mutate to run their course in humans. The Chinese markets are riddled with wild animals collected to be sold for food in extremely unsanitary conditions, and this type of jump is relatively common and expected. It is not a type of virus that scientists have the capability to "engineer" like a bioweapon, so that particular theory is highly unlikely.

[SunnyDays]

Yes we should take this situation seriously. The truth is we don't know how this started. Many believe this virus was bio-engineered in a lab, which if true, can have horrifying results.

They have traced it back to a particular meat market back in November using gene sequencing. The nature of coronavirus' is that most of them are zoonotic and jump from wild host animals to humans, in which some of them mutate to run their course in humans. The Chinese markets are riddled with wild animals collected to be sold for food in extremely unsanitary conditions, and this type of jump is relatively common and expected. It is not a type of virus that scientists have the capability to "engineer" like a bioweapon, so that particular theory is highly unlikely.

I had seen on the news that the virus likely originated in bats, was transferred to a pangolin (an animal that looks like a cross between an anteater and a armadillo), which was being sold in the wet market in Wuhan.  Thereby making the jump to humans.

[Telecaster]

The part that I find bizarre is that we've already seen what has happened in Italy and China.  In Wuhan they built something like 10 emergency hospitals because the regular hospital system was overloaded.  In Italy, they've run out of hospital beds and doctors are forced to decide which patients to treat:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/not-a-wave-a-tsunami-italy-hospitals-at-virus-limit

This is actually what happened, and is happening right now. 

But if a complete crackpot like Shiva Ayyadurai says it is no big deal, then we should think it is no big deal.

What the actual fuck kind of logic is that?

We'll see in about 10-14 days if the crackpots are right. 

[HPstache]

The part that I find bizarre is that we've already seen what has happened in Italy and China.  In Wuhan they built something like 10 emergency hospitals because the regular hospital system was overloaded.  In Italy, they've run out of hospital beds and doctors are forced to decide which patients to treat:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/not-a-wave-a-tsunami-italy-hospitals-at-virus-limit

This is actually what happened, and is happening right now. 

But if a complete crackpot like Shiva Ayyadurai says it is no big deal, then we should think it is no big deal.

What the actual fuck kind of logic is that?

We'll see in about 10-14 days if the crackpots are right.

So what will the evidence be in 10-14 days?  A certain number of deaths?  A certain number of infections?  A certain trajectory?  Can we trust infection counts with such shitty rules about testing here in the US?

[Kyle Schuant]

I'm still on the fence with this. On the one hand, considering the low fatality numbers compared to other diseases -

You're in the UK. Just wait.

I'm not sure how you like to drive, but where I'm from we like to slow the car down before it smashes into the tree, not after. As I was taught in the army, the 7 Ps: proper preparation and planning prevents piss-poor performance.

The principles we apply here with money can be more broadly-applied to the rest of our lives, if we choose.

[Miss Piggy]

I have a PhD in immunology. My grad school friends and professors from our microbiology and immunology department are taking this seriously. I work as a science and medical editor and have read some of the clinical literature. Just because the death rate is not as high as those associated with some other diseases, don't kid yourself that this isn't serious. Left unchecked, it will overwhelm medical facilities and resources quickly, as it did in Hubei Province, China and is currently doing in Italy, Iran, Spain, Washington State, USA, and other places.

This is a highly contagious pathogen to which no one has natural immunity and 15-20% of detected cases are sick enough to require medical treatment. In the most severe cases (roughly 5%), that's mechanical ventilation under isolation conditions for weeks. If the last SARS is any indication, some people will have permanent lung damage.

Believe what you want, but don't impose your beliefs on others by putting them at risk. Social restrictions haven't been imposed without a lot of forethought.

Honest question for you, @OtherJen: the "roughly 5%" you shared above...is that 5% of known cases (so a very high number)? Or 5% of the 15-20% sick enough to require medical treatment (so a much small number)? Thanks! (Also see the question above from Archipelago to you.)

[Telecaster]

So what will the evidence be in 10-14 days?  A certain number of deaths?  A certain number of infections?  A certain trajectory?  Can we trust infection counts with such shitty rules about testing here in the US?

We are about 10-14 days behind Italy in the infection curve.  Maybe less due to our lack of testing.   So, if that's the case, then our medical infrastructure will be completely overwhelmed in about two weeks.  If everything is chugging along fine, then it was all a big scam, like Ayyadurai says.

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

The thing that skeptics and contrarians don't understand is that situations develop incrementally..... right up until it's a disaster. And then it's too late. You can explain away this as a media beat up or fake news right up until you see "bodies in the streets".

[OtherJen]

I have a PhD in immunology. My grad school friends and professors from our microbiology and immunology department are taking this seriously. I work as a science and medical editor and have read some of the clinical literature. Just because the death rate is not as high as those associated with some other diseases, don't kid yourself that this isn't serious. Left unchecked, it will overwhelm medical facilities and resources quickly, as it did in Hubei Province, China and is currently doing in Italy, Iran, Spain, Washington State, USA, and other places.

This is a highly contagious pathogen to which no one has natural immunity and 15-20% of detected cases are sick enough to require medical treatment. In the most severe cases (roughly 5%), that's mechanical ventilation under isolation conditions for weeks. If the last SARS is any indication, some people will have permanent lung damage.

Believe what you want, but don't impose your beliefs on others by putting them at risk. Social restrictions haven't been imposed without a lot of forethought.

Would you be willing to provide commentary on this coronavirus situation in relation to H1N1, which was about a decade ago? I know comparing it to the flu is not an apples to apples comparison but I’m interested in hearing your opinion.

Sort of? I was a T cell biologist rather than a virologist or epidemiologist. My understanding of SARS-CoV-2 vs. H1N1 is that SARS-CoV-2 is more infectious (higher R0 number, as far as scientists can tell) and that it most strongly affects older people. H1N1 hit younger people hardest.

From an immunology standpoint, the age difference is fascinating. I don't know if previous exposure to other flu strains would have protected older people from H1N1, whereas younger people wouldn't have had as much of an opportunity to develop immunological memory to a similar strain. Moreover, the thymus, which is where your T cells finish developing and maturing, starts to shrink during puberty, and as you get older, your ability to replenish your T cell populations diminishes. That suggests to me that SARS-CoV-2 is exploiting an age-related weakness in the immune system. Something else that would suggest an age-related issue would be the mechanism of severe illness; I haven't read yet whether it's more frequently straight-up uncontrolled pneumonia in older people vs. cytokine storm and organ failure in younger people (cytokine storm is an excessive inflammatory immune response and is thought to have been responsible for deaths from H1N1 and the 1918 flu strain).

I think at this point, scientists still have a lot to learn about this virus, including whether an effective vaccine is possible. If it mutates regularly, like influenza viruses do, then a seasonal vaccine would be needed.

This article covers a lot of the same points and is fairly comprehensive: https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-myths.html
The Lancet medical journal has made its coronavirus literature free to read on its website: https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

[Bloop Bloop]

I don't think it's a hoax. But I certainly think that scientists are taking precautions and giving out information on projections based on something like the 75th - 99th (worst) percentile outcome rather than the 50th percentile (median). Therefore we are taking an overly cautious approach. I think that's appropriate in the circumstances, but I wish we could get a better understanding of the median outcome - but I understand that doctors are reluctant to give out that information because they want to ward off complacency. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

[OtherJen]

I have a PhD in immunology. My grad school friends and professors from our microbiology and immunology department are taking this seriously. I work as a science and medical editor and have read some of the clinical literature. Just because the death rate is not as high as those associated with some other diseases, don't kid yourself that this isn't serious. Left unchecked, it will overwhelm medical facilities and resources quickly, as it did in Hubei Province, China and is currently doing in Italy, Iran, Spain, Washington State, USA, and other places.

This is a highly contagious pathogen to which no one has natural immunity and 15-20% of detected cases are sick enough to require medical treatment. In the most severe cases (roughly 5%), that's mechanical ventilation under isolation conditions for weeks. If the last SARS is any indication, some people will have permanent lung damage.

Believe what you want, but don't impose your beliefs on others by putting them at risk. Social restrictions haven't been imposed without a lot of forethought.

Honest question for you, @OtherJen: the "roughly 5%" you shared above...is that 5% of known cases (so a very high number)? Or 5% of the 15-20% sick enough to require medical treatment (so a much small number)? Thanks! (Also see the question above from Archipelago to you.)

As far as I've read, it's approx. 5% of the known cases. I don't know what other factors contribute to that frequency. I would expect the age and health of the population to be factors. Yes, that is a high number, and that's why medical facilities in hotspots are overwhelmed. In Hubei Province, the Chinese government actually built temporary hospitals to house the overflow of patients requiring intensive care.

I don't want to scare people into a panic, but there is a lot of value in social distancing. It's the only way that Hubei Province was able to get the outbreak under control.

[Kyle Schuant]

I don't want to scare people into a panic, but there is a lot of value in social distancing.

Yes. And for many people, this is a low-cost precaution. It's inconvenient, but won't empty out our bank accounts or ruin our lives otherwise. I'm preparing for a month or two of homeschooling, and my wife for a month or two of working from home. This is a big hassle and will take some back-and-forth and organising, but we can do it.

For some people, it's higher-cost. It's difficult with this one because the people who most need to self-isolate - older and sicker people - are those in most need of social and other help. In the UK they are suggesting everyone over 70 self-isolate for 4 months. This may actually kill as many people over 70 as the virus would. I don't know the solution here.

[Anette]

https://youtu.be/p_AyuhbnPOI

Did anybody actually listen to ( read) this?
I would love to hear your opinion!

[projekt]

Part of the reason for low overall cases and deaths at this point is that China went all-in on limiting movement. Not just citywide travel, but home quarantine in Hubei (Wuhan) and closing all gatherings across China. After people have been home quarantined for 14 days, they can go back to work, which is actually kind of amazing.

If China had taken a less draconian approach it would have hundreds of thousands or millions of cases right now, probably overwhelming its ability to test let alone treat. It's really a success story but we in the west looked at that and said, "nah, we can't do that."

Contrarians would look a lot better if they weren't so clearly carrying water for the President.

[projekt]

https://youtu.be/p_AyuhbnPOI

Did anybody actually listen to ( read) this?
I would love to hear your opinion!

I don't know how he can square his claim that Italy has no abnormal level of severe respiratory illness when it is having to triage extremely severe cases to "do not treat" because they are out of ICU beds and ventilator units. In China, because they were able to close off Wuhan and implement isolation measures so effectively, they were able to create new hospitals and staff them from other provinces.

[partgypsy]

If self isolating then causes the us to have lower, and manageable number of severe cases, isn't it worth it for us to self isolate. I know there are costs, esp financial. But it seems better to err on side of caution. It is a novel virus, capable of killing a non significant percent of infected, we have no immunity, we have no cure. Makes sense to be prudent. Otoh my dad is visiting, and he said, can we talk about anything OTHER than the virus. So we watched a old bill Maher show, walked around, talked about other things. Step away from media coverage if it's bothering you.

[Dancin'Dog]

Here's a link to a site for physicians & health care providers about CONVID-19


https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/03/a-covid-19-coronavirus-update-from-concerned-physicians.html

[Miss Piggy]

I have a PhD in immunology. My grad school friends and professors from our microbiology and immunology department are taking this seriously. I work as a science and medical editor and have read some of the clinical literature. Just because the death rate is not as high as those associated with some other diseases, don't kid yourself that this isn't serious. Left unchecked, it will overwhelm medical facilities and resources quickly, as it did in Hubei Province, China and is currently doing in Italy, Iran, Spain, Washington State, USA, and other places.

This is a highly contagious pathogen to which no one has natural immunity and 15-20% of detected cases are sick enough to require medical treatment. In the most severe cases (roughly 5%), that's mechanical ventilation under isolation conditions for weeks. If the last SARS is any indication, some people will have permanent lung damage.

Believe what you want, but don't impose your beliefs on others by putting them at risk. Social restrictions haven't been imposed without a lot of forethought.

Honest question for you, @OtherJen: the "roughly 5%" you shared above...is that 5% of known cases (so a very high number)? Or 5% of the 15-20% sick enough to require medical treatment (so a much small number)? Thanks! (Also see the question above from Archipelago to you.)

As far as I've read, it's approx. 5% of the known cases. I don't know what other factors contribute to that frequency. I would expect the age and health of the population to be factors. Yes, that is a high number, and that's why medical facilities in hotspots are overwhelmed. In Hubei Province, the Chinese government actually built temporary hospitals to house the overflow of patients requiring intensive care.

I don't want to scare people into a panic, but there is a lot of value in social distancing. It's the only way that Hubei Province was able to get the outbreak under control.

Yes, I am now seeing the same stats. Thanks for the reply.

[Roland of Gilead]

Part of the reason for low overall cases and deaths at this point is that China went all-in on limiting movement. Not just citywide travel, but home quarantine in Hubei (Wuhan) and closing all gatherings across China. After people have been home quarantined for 14 days, they can go back to work, which is actually kind of amazing.

If China had taken a less draconian approach it would have hundreds of thousands or millions of cases right now, probably overwhelming its ability to test let alone treat. It's really a success story but we in the west looked at that and said, "nah, we can't do that."

Contrarians would look a lot better if they weren't so clearly carrying water for the President.

Now if only China had prevented people from eating/selling bat soup in the first place...

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

Part of the reason for low overall cases and deaths at this point is that China went all-in on limiting movement. Not just citywide travel, but home quarantine in Hubei (Wuhan) and closing all gatherings across China. After people have been home quarantined for 14 days, they can go back to work, which is actually kind of amazing.

If China had taken a less draconian approach it would have hundreds of thousands or millions of cases right now, probably overwhelming its ability to test let alone treat. It's really a success story but we in the west looked at that and said, "nah, we can't do that."

Contrarians would look a lot better if they weren't so clearly carrying water for the President.

Now if only China had prevented people from eating/selling bat soup in the first place...

No one knows where this came from. The West is saying chinese bat soup. The East is saying it was an american soldier. They can't find patient zero, so no one knows a damn frickin thing, not that it's even relevant at this stage.

[Omy]

It's kind of relevant...it may be time to stop unsafe food practices in outdoor markets around the world.

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

It's kind of relevant...it may be time to stop unsafe food practices in outdoor markets around the world.

There's not going to BE outdoor markets around the world for quite awhile, my friend.

[Bloop Bloop]

Well, I don't think Americans can stop unsafe food practices in foreign markets any more than the rest of the world can stop gun massacres in the States.

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

Well, I don't think Americans can stop unsafe food practices in foreign markets any more than the rest of the world can stop gun massacres in the States.

Well, it's a sightly better reason for marching in to foreign markets than imaginary weapons of mass destruction

[Roland of Gilead]

Well, I don't think Americans can stop unsafe food practices in foreign markets any more than the rest of the world can stop gun massacres in the States.

They probably can't but I am just saying don't clap China too much on the back for their handling of the virus when their unsafe practices in handling food is very likely what caused the virus.

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

Well, I don't think Americans can stop unsafe food practices in foreign markets any more than the rest of the world can stop gun massacres in the States.

They probably can't but I am just saying don't clap China too much on the back for their handling of the virus when their unsafe practices in handling food is very likely what caused the virus.

You don't actually know what caused the virus. Could have been a mutation from a corona virus that's already very common for al you know.

[use2betrix]

It's kind of relevant...it may be time to stop unsafe food practices in outdoor markets around the world.

While some of the “exotic” foods may be able to be minimized, food practices in probably 95% of third world countries around the world would be considered “unsafe” by American standards.

My wife and I spent months in Southeast Asia, and the food handling/storage/preparation practices are not anything that would every fly in the U.S..

[Kyle Schuant]

Given that the processed food so popular in the West contributes to obesity, diabetes and blindness and loss of limbs, colorectal cancer and death, heart disease and death, and so on with victims in the millions annually - well, let's just say no country is in a position to be pointing fingers at other countries' food practices.

[Roland of Gilead]

You don't actually know what caused the virus. Could have been a mutation from a corona virus that's already very common for al you know.

You are right, we don't, although scientists have given a high likelihood that it jumped cross species (perhaps snakes/bats/pangolins) due to conditions in the supposedly illegal wild animal markets.   I do find it a bit strange that a country which can crack down on protesters and social media so quickly is unable to close down these markets but I have never been to one to see how it operates.

[elaine amj]

Given that the processed food so popular in the West contributes to obesity, diabetes and blindness and loss of limbs, colorectal cancer and death, heart disease and death, and so on with victims in the millions annually - well, let's just say no country is in a position to be pointing fingers at other countries' food practices.

Good point. Let me just say that while my home country in Asia has loads of unsafe food practices that make DH squeamish, they all collectively shake their heads at the typical American diet. Diplomatically, we all have things we can do better and perhaps now is not the time to point fingers.

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[projekt]

China banned wild animal sales (probably with some loopholes) after this started. You don't have to live in China, if you don't like the way people eat. I don't get why people think they're so superior to each other.

[Roland of Gilead]

Given that the processed food so popular in the West contributes to obesity, diabetes and blindness and loss of limbs, colorectal cancer and death, heart disease and death, and so on with victims in the millions annually - well, let's just say no country is in a position to be pointing fingers at other countries' food practices.

Good point. Let me just say that while my home country in Asia has loads of unsafe food practices that make DH squeamish, they all collectively shake their heads at the typical American diet. Diplomatically, we all have things we can do better and perhaps now is not the time to point fingers.

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I tried to look up what the heart disease and colon cancer rates were in Asia vs the USA to see if there were significant differences but was unable to quickly find any comparison data.  It actually looks like stroke is higher in China than the USA although high blood pressure is a bit higher in the USA.

[Roland of Gilead]

China banned wild animal sales (probably with some loopholes) after this started. You don't have to live in China, if you don't like the way people eat. I don't get why people think they're so superior to each other.

I don't live in China but the viruses cross the oceans because the world has free travel and fairly open borders so it *does* matter what one country does.   Above ground atomic bomb testing by the USA and Soviet Union likely caused the world cancer levels to rise and I blame both of those countries for that as well.

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

Given that the processed food so popular in the West contributes to obesity, diabetes and blindness and loss of limbs, colorectal cancer and death, heart disease and death, and so on with victims in the millions annually - well, let's just say no country is in a position to be pointing fingers at other countries' food practices.

Good point. Let me just say that while my home country in Asia has loads of unsafe food practices that make DH squeamish, they all collectively shake their heads at the typical American diet. Diplomatically, we all have things we can do better and perhaps now is not the time to point fingers.

Sent from my VCE-AL00 using Tapatalk

Unsafe food practices or just different food practices?

It's common in asia to eat rare cooked chicken. In the USA you'd scream salmonella etc. However, salmonella is common in the USA because of the way chickens are raised and, more importantly, how they are butchered. It's a PROCESS driven disease. It's not inherent to chicken flesh. In asia, chickens are bred and slaughtered differently, so rare cooked chicken isn't dangerous to eat. And hasn't been for the last frickin thousand years.

In most British colony countries it's common to make jam and seal it with wax or a cellophane jam cover. Americans get all up in arms and insist everything is canned with a water process. Jam is preserved. Sugar is a preservative! People have been making jam the same way since the dawn of jam with very few jam related issues.

I find that the USA generally has a huge lack of understanding of other country's practices. To be honest, it's just one of the many thing about Planet Yank that annoys the f$#^ out of me.