Author Topic: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?  (Read 92772 times)

Freedomin5

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #550 on: April 02, 2020, 04:00:03 PM »
what i don't understand is the end game with social distancing. if we're doing our jobs (of distancing) right, then the spread ends. but, there are plenty of people out there that DGAF, which means it's still spreading. therefore, you can never end distancing because herd immunity will not be achieved and we cannot be freed up to all suddenly get infected. meanwhile, the govt will be printing out $2T/month in stimulus just to replace the economy that would otherwise disappear, crippling the US (forever?).

my take from back in january is that the response needs to be either extreme: 100% lockdown OR 100% freedom. anything in the middle will produce the worst of all scenarios.
my understanding is that a lot of people will build up immunity and therefore even if a second or third or fourth wave hits after social distancing ends fewer people will be affected/effected/infected. Plus the hope for a vaccine.

And maybe because all the people who were going to die from covid already died in the first round? So a larger percentage of the people remaining are in low risk categories. Plus everything you said.

kenmoremmm

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #551 on: April 02, 2020, 04:14:45 PM »
what i don't understand is the end game with social distancing. if we're doing our jobs (of distancing) right, then the spread ends. but, there are plenty of people out there that DGAF, which means it's still spreading. therefore, you can never end distancing because herd immunity will not be achieved and we cannot be freed up to all suddenly get infected. meanwhile, the govt will be printing out $2T/month in stimulus just to replace the economy that would otherwise disappear, crippling the US (forever?).

my take from back in january is that the response needs to be either extreme: 100% lockdown OR 100% freedom. anything in the middle will produce the worst of all scenarios.
my understanding is that a lot of people will build up immunity and therefore even if a second or third or fourth wave hits after social distancing ends fewer people will be affected/effected/infected. Plus the hope for a vaccine.

And maybe because all the people who were going to die from covid already died in the first round? So a larger percentage of the people remaining are in low risk categories. Plus everything you said.
bolded part doesn't make sense. that would imply that the virus is floating around and infecting only the vulnerable. or, it implies that 100% has been infected already.

if vulnerable people have isolated for a long time, there's a greater likelihood that wave 2 would be worse than wave 1.

Freedomin5

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #552 on: April 02, 2020, 04:22:54 PM »
what i don't understand is the end game with social distancing. if we're doing our jobs (of distancing) right, then the spread ends. but, there are plenty of people out there that DGAF, which means it's still spreading. therefore, you can never end distancing because herd immunity will not be achieved and we cannot be freed up to all suddenly get infected. meanwhile, the govt will be printing out $2T/month in stimulus just to replace the economy that would otherwise disappear, crippling the US (forever?).

my take from back in january is that the response needs to be either extreme: 100% lockdown OR 100% freedom. anything in the middle will produce the worst of all scenarios.
my understanding is that a lot of people will build up immunity and therefore even if a second or third or fourth wave hits after social distancing ends fewer people will be affected/effected/infected. Plus the hope for a vaccine.

And maybe because all the people who were going to die from covid already died in the first round? So a larger percentage of the people remaining are in low risk categories. Plus everything you said.
bolded part doesn't make sense. that would imply that the virus is floating around and infecting only the vulnerable. or, it implies that 100% has been infected already.

if vulnerable people have isolated for a long time, there's a greater likelihood that wave 2 would be worse than wave 1.

That is also a possibility depending on if the majority of the vulnerable population self isolated quickly enough and for long enough during the first wave.

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #553 on: April 02, 2020, 11:01:35 PM »
I think I remember reading somewhere that the hope is that when the next wave comes, they will be better prepared to immediately jump in to isolate and contact trace. This will minimize any outbreaks from spreading too far. Something they didn't really manage to do this time around.

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kenmoremmm

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #554 on: April 02, 2020, 11:03:13 PM »
I think I remember reading somewhere that the hope is that when the next wave comes, they will be better prepared to immediately jump in to isolate and contact trace. This will minimize any outbreaks from spreading too far. Something they didn't really manage to do this time around.

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^under current testing, and likely future levels, this will not be possible. no one is testing to a level where data and isolation is meaningful (minus s. korea)

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #555 on: April 02, 2020, 11:37:34 PM »
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/texas/article/China-poisoned-our-people-says-campaign-ad-15174600.php

I don't want to quote any of this radioactive BS, reader beware.  And yes, Houstonians have to be subjected to this ad if we are watching TV (which I won't be).  I can only hope it turns people off from how crazy and polarizing it is in this current climate of needing to come together as US citizens and neighbors...

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #556 on: April 03, 2020, 06:35:23 AM »
Paddleboarder arrested at Malibu Pier for flouting state stay at home order

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/officials-paddleboarder-arrested-at-malibu-pier-for-flouting-state-stay-at-home-order/

Instead of staying at home, guy goes out and paddleboards. In the ocean. By himself. Then police go out and arrest him, creating far more contact than would have been made had he been left alone.

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #557 on: April 03, 2020, 07:44:41 AM »
With every passing day since the start of the sheltering at home measures in Germany and the situation not becoming as dire as in Italy or Spain there are increasing numbers of trolls noticeable in social media which are calling Covid-19 a hoax or a ploy by some secret organisation to cover up something bigger. It feels like if it goes on for much longer and the economic impact increases this could also lead to increased levels of aggression and division in society.

At the same time the nationalistic approach to tackling the crisis of most countries could possibly damage international relations for a long time. Germanys initial response to the crisis was to ban all exports of PPE, while the situation was still quite relaxed in Germany and already pretty grim in other states, pissing off all European partner states. Luckily that ban was lifted again. The world should tackle this issue solidly united. The virus does not differentiate between nationality or stop at borders, so it should also be fought together.

Yesterday there were reports of masks which were ordered by France being snatched up on Chinese runways by US officials paying 3 to 4 times what France paid in cash. Today there are reports of the same happening to German orders of Masks being redirected to the US. I only have a link in German, but the sources are reputable:

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article206992269/Coronavirus-Pandemie-USA-fangen-von-Berlin-bestellte-Schutzmasken-aus-China-ab.html

America first I guess.

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #558 on: April 03, 2020, 08:21:05 AM »
Paddleboarder arrested at Malibu Pier for flouting state stay at home order

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/officials-paddleboarder-arrested-at-malibu-pier-for-flouting-state-stay-at-home-order/

Instead of staying at home, guy goes out and paddleboards. In the ocean. By himself. Then police go out and arrest him, creating far more contact than would have been made had he been left alone.

I think this is a silly thing to be sarcastic / outraged about. Yes it's silly on its face, but if everyone broke the rules and went out and "did things by themselves" then there wouldn't be much of a stay-at-home order, would there? Law enforcement always "makes an example" out of people who flagrantly breaks the rules to keep everyone else in line, that's just how it works.

OtherJen

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #559 on: April 03, 2020, 08:37:20 AM »
Paddleboarder arrested at Malibu Pier for flouting state stay at home order

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/officials-paddleboarder-arrested-at-malibu-pier-for-flouting-state-stay-at-home-order/

Instead of staying at home, guy goes out and paddleboards. In the ocean. By himself. Then police go out and arrest him, creating far more contact than would have been made had he been left alone.

I think this is a silly thing to be sarcastic / outraged about. Yes it's silly on its face, but if everyone broke the rules and went out and "did things by themselves" then there wouldn't be much of a stay-at-home order, would there? Law enforcement always "makes an example" out of people who flagrantly breaks the rules to keep everyone else in line, that's just how it works.

Yeah, especially as the public beaches are closed. If they don’t make an example of this guy, there will be dozens more on the beach.

Local parks are having to close more and more amenities because people will not stop congregating.

DadJokes

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #560 on: April 03, 2020, 09:14:07 AM »
Paddleboarder arrested at Malibu Pier for flouting state stay at home order

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/officials-paddleboarder-arrested-at-malibu-pier-for-flouting-state-stay-at-home-order/

Instead of staying at home, guy goes out and paddleboards. In the ocean. By himself. Then police go out and arrest him, creating far more contact than would have been made had he been left alone.

I think this is a silly thing to be sarcastic / outraged about. Yes it's silly on its face, but if everyone broke the rules and went out and "did things by themselves" then there wouldn't be much of a stay-at-home order, would there? Law enforcement always "makes an example" out of people who flagrantly breaks the rules to keep everyone else in line, that's just how it works.

I wouldn't consider it outrage so much as laughing at the fact that police action caused far more chances of spreading the disease than letting a guy hang out by himself in the ocean.

Am I going to be arrested for walking around the neighborhood or going on a bike ride? Our state also has a stay at home order.

GuitarStv

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #561 on: April 03, 2020, 09:18:30 AM »
Paddleboarder arrested at Malibu Pier for flouting state stay at home order

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/officials-paddleboarder-arrested-at-malibu-pier-for-flouting-state-stay-at-home-order/

Instead of staying at home, guy goes out and paddleboards. In the ocean. By himself. Then police go out and arrest him, creating far more contact than would have been made had he been left alone.

I think this is a silly thing to be sarcastic / outraged about. Yes it's silly on its face, but if everyone broke the rules and went out and "did things by themselves" then there wouldn't be much of a stay-at-home order, would there? Law enforcement always "makes an example" out of people who flagrantly breaks the rules to keep everyone else in line, that's just how it works.

Yeah, especially as the public beaches are closed. If they don’t make an example of this guy, there will be dozens more on the beach.

Local parks are having to close more and more amenities because people will not stop congregating.


This is really the issue.  And I agree - on the surface it looks stupid.  The single guy out paddleboarding is no big deal.  But then another guy sees him walking up and down the beach and decides . . . hey, it's a nice day.  I want to walk on the beach.  And two of them is no big deal.  But then three, four, ten, twenty . . . eventually it's a clusterfuck of a large gathering of people on the beach.

So, they really do need to clamp down on people who don't follow the orders.  Even if it looks stupid.

Hirondelle

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #562 on: April 03, 2020, 09:35:45 AM »
With every passing day since the start of the sheltering at home measures in Germany and the situation not becoming as dire as in Italy or Spain there are increasing numbers of trolls noticeable in social media which are calling Covid-19 a hoax or a ploy by some secret organisation to cover up something bigger. It feels like if it goes on for much longer and the economic impact increases this could also lead to increased levels of aggression and division in society.


I've been hearing some of these too. Isn't it sad that this happens in a country that did take measures earlier/better testing efforts and now benefits from it, that it makes people loose motivation?

I have heard several conspiracy theories as well. In India and part of the middle east people seem to think that China made the virus in a lab and spread it over the world, starting with themselves to not make them look suspicious. Then here there's some rumors that it's a virus made in the USA or Canada and 'ordered' by some of the super rich families to make them more powerful(?!). Then there's the USA-story in a different form saying that they wanted to weaken the Chinese but then it backfired and spread over the rest of the world while China contained it quickly.

I'm still trying to decide which theory makes the least sense.

In the meantime, the whole 'virusses mutate naturally and jump from one species to another occasionally' is not believed by those people, even though the vast majority of new virusses have originated that way the past few decades. I guess them highly secret highly paid respiratory virus producing labs have been very active all this time making SARS, MERS, ebola, H1N1 and all those other strains too. Next they'll start questioning whether Spanish flu was lab made lol. 

OtherJen

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #563 on: April 03, 2020, 09:57:41 AM »
Paddleboarder arrested at Malibu Pier for flouting state stay at home order

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/officials-paddleboarder-arrested-at-malibu-pier-for-flouting-state-stay-at-home-order/

Instead of staying at home, guy goes out and paddleboards. In the ocean. By himself. Then police go out and arrest him, creating far more contact than would have been made had he been left alone.

I think this is a silly thing to be sarcastic / outraged about. Yes it's silly on its face, but if everyone broke the rules and went out and "did things by themselves" then there wouldn't be much of a stay-at-home order, would there? Law enforcement always "makes an example" out of people who flagrantly breaks the rules to keep everyone else in line, that's just how it works.

I wouldn't consider it outrage so much as laughing at the fact that police action caused far more chances of spreading the disease than letting a guy hang out by himself in the ocean.

Am I going to be arrested for walking around the neighborhood or going on a bike ride? Our state also has a stay at home order.

No, because your streets and sidewalks are not closed, and the stay at home orders specifically exempt solitary outdoor exercise. They also explicitly closed the beaches in California.

Seriously, if everyone would quit looking for loopholes and whining about the situation, it would settle down much more quickly.

mm1970

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #564 on: April 03, 2020, 10:00:18 AM »
Paddleboarder arrested at Malibu Pier for flouting state stay at home order

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/officials-paddleboarder-arrested-at-malibu-pier-for-flouting-state-stay-at-home-order/

Instead of staying at home, guy goes out and paddleboards. In the ocean. By himself. Then police go out and arrest him, creating far more contact than would have been made had he been left alone.

I think this is a silly thing to be sarcastic / outraged about. Yes it's silly on its face, but if everyone broke the rules and went out and "did things by themselves" then there wouldn't be much of a stay-at-home order, would there? Law enforcement always "makes an example" out of people who flagrantly breaks the rules to keep everyone else in line, that's just how it works.
This is a very tough one for me, living near the beach in California.

He's by himself!  Social distancing!

OTOH, people are stupid.  Our city has closed parks, they are starting to close trails.  It's okay for a family of 4 to walk on the beach and stay away from others, the problem is when 50 families do that at the same time. 

My friends are pissed that they may be closing the trails - "people are ruining it for us!"  Look, I get it, you are a regular hiker and now there are hundreds more on the trails and there is NO WAY to keep 6 ft on our trails when you pass.  It's not possible! 

They took down the basketball hoop at our local park yesterday, and said no outdoor group activities, even if the same family.  So we had been occasionally going to that court to play 2-square.  Have to try it in our tiny backyard  now.

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #565 on: April 03, 2020, 10:15:35 AM »
Lots of people are just self-centered, spoiled brats with no consideration for others or ability to think beyond their own immediate wants.  They need to be taken down and hard.  No one cares about their entitlements right now.  No sympathy from me if someone is made an example of.

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #566 on: April 03, 2020, 10:36:27 AM »

I've been hearing some of these too. Isn't it sad that this happens in a country that did take measures earlier/better testing efforts and now benefits from it, that it makes people loose motivation?

I have heard several conspiracy theories as well. In India and part of the middle east people seem to think that China made the virus in a lab and spread it over the world, starting with themselves to not make them look suspicious.

I've seen this online a lot in the last few weeks from tinfoil-hat Trump supporters. With the addition that they did it to derail Trump's reelection chances.

SwordGuy

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #567 on: April 03, 2020, 11:23:22 AM »

I've been hearing some of these too. Isn't it sad that this happens in a country that did take measures earlier/better testing efforts and now benefits from it, that it makes people loose motivation?

I have heard several conspiracy theories as well. In India and part of the middle east people seem to think that China made the virus in a lab and spread it over the world, starting with themselves to not make them look suspicious.

I've seen this online a lot in the last few weeks from tinfoil-hat Trump supporters. With the addition that they did it to derail Trump's reelection chances.

Yes, because 57,000 people had nothing better to do in life than die so Trump wouldn't get re-elected.  and another million+ tried to do it and failed (so far). 

These people are willfully dumb.

Hirondelle

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #568 on: April 03, 2020, 11:42:08 AM »

I've been hearing some of these too. Isn't it sad that this happens in a country that did take measures earlier/better testing efforts and now benefits from it, that it makes people loose motivation?

I have heard several conspiracy theories as well. In India and part of the middle east people seem to think that China made the virus in a lab and spread it over the world, starting with themselves to not make them look suspicious.

I've seen this online a lot in the last few weeks from tinfoil-hat Trump supporters. With the addition that they did it to derail Trump's reelection chances.

Yes, because 57,000 people had nothing better to do in life than die so Trump wouldn't get re-elected.  and another million+ tried to do it and failed (so far). 

These people are willfully dumb.

Yup, would've never guessed that particularly Italians and Spaniards were willing to die just to avoid getting Trump re-elected. They must be more socialist than Bernie Sanders!

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #569 on: April 03, 2020, 01:40:45 PM »
I'm fully on board with removing people who are in places that have been closed, using the above argument that if you allow one, you'll soon have a crowd, but what I can't figure out is... if the beach was closed, why was there a lifeguard working there?

SwordGuy

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #570 on: April 03, 2020, 02:39:19 PM »
I'm fully on board with removing people who are in places that have been closed, using the above argument that if you allow one, you'll soon have a crowd, but what I can't figure out is... if the beach was closed, why was there a lifeguard working there?

(a) Because his place of work wasn't a danger to anyone else and (b) he's a first responder and (c) someone's got to call the po-po on the folks at the beach!  :)

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #571 on: April 03, 2020, 05:42:37 PM »
I'm fully on board with removing people who are in places that have been closed, using the above argument that if you allow one, you'll soon have a crowd, but what I can't figure out is... if the beach was closed, why was there a lifeguard working there?
Hawaii resident here.

Beaches are technically closed. Lifeguards are not manning the towers. But they're patrolling the shores, doing... not sure what they're doing. But they're there.

You can still go in the ocean. Surf breaks are as crowded as ever, maybe even more than usual since everybody is out of work/school. You're just not supposed to linger on the beach, but crossing it to go in the water is totally fine. Done it in front of cops, no problemo.

Plenty of people still go to the beach to linger despite the order, just not the popular ones, and they don't hang out in large groups.

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #572 on: April 03, 2020, 06:44:47 PM »
My county has just closed off recreational boating of all kinds.

I already felt like it wasn't really in the spirit of stay at home, but I also felt quite privileged to have the ability to go to the boat every weekend. It really broke up the weeks, given that I was already at home for a week before the stay at home order in our state. Except for groceries and the boat.

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #573 on: April 03, 2020, 06:54:31 PM »
My son, who is a very knowledgeable and attentive source for things in Georgia, said the Governor of Georgia just put statewide restrictions on movement into effect.

He and a number of public health and civic leaders in his part of the state are livid about this because the governor also cancelled all local city and county restrictions with that executive order.

His own area had more stringent restrictions in place and has NOT had the kind of exponential growth other areas are getting.  Now those tougher restrictions are lifted.

I'm waiting to see what the official public response from public health and civic leaders in his part of the state will be to this.


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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #574 on: April 04, 2020, 05:36:41 AM »
Is an effective COVID-19 vaccination possible?

I thought attempts at vaccines for other coronavirus strains (SARS) have been unsuccessful?

Regarding ventilators, from what I’ve read the survival rate once a COVID-19 patient has been placed on a ventilator is only about 15%.  Those aren’t good treatment odds, so I’m not quite sure the importance placed on a last resort treatment that is not particularly effective.

former player

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #575 on: April 04, 2020, 06:13:01 AM »
Is an effective COVID-19 vaccination possible?

I thought attempts at vaccines for other coronavirus strains (SARS) have been unsuccessful?

Regarding ventilators, from what I’ve read the survival rate once a COVID-19 patient has been placed on a ventilator is only about 15%.  Those aren’t good treatment odds, so I’m not quite sure the importance placed on a last resort treatment that is not particularly effective.
Because not doing it is a death sentence?  And because medics are a bit squeamish at handing those out and relatives "want everything done".

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #576 on: April 04, 2020, 08:35:15 AM »
Is an effective COVID-19 vaccination possible?

I thought attempts at vaccines for other coronavirus strains (SARS) have been unsuccessful?

Regarding ventilators, from what I’ve read the survival rate once a COVID-19 patient has been placed on a ventilator is only about 15%.  Those aren’t good treatment odds, so I’m not quite sure the importance placed on a last resort treatment that is not particularly effective.
Because not doing it is a death sentence?  And because medics are a bit squeamish at handing those out and relatives "want everything done".

Those are incredibly low odds - in my country the estimates are that 60-70% of those in intensive care survive. Of course we have a different culture around death where it's not the done thing to treat people in the ICU when they don't stand a chance of survival.

I think the availability of ICU beds is an important factor for morale though - even though we're talking about a tiny proportion of the patient population, when there are no more beds available, you're going to get panic and that's not what we need at all. Ventilators are an important 'we are in control' symbol.

Edit: see I mixed up some words.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2020, 10:24:32 AM by Imma »

T-Money$

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #577 on: April 04, 2020, 09:12:29 AM »
Is an effective COVID-19 vaccination possible?

I thought attempts at vaccines for other coronavirus strains (SARS) have been unsuccessful?

Regarding ventilators, from what I’ve read the survival rate once a COVID-19 patient has been placed on a ventilator is only about 15%.  Those aren’t good treatment odds, so I’m not quite sure the importance placed on a last resort treatment that is not particularly effective.
Because not doing it is a death sentence?  And because medics are a bit squeamish at handing those out and relatives "want everything done".

Those are incredibly low odds - in my country the estimates are that 60-70% of those in intensive care pass away. Of course we have a different culture around death where it's not the done thing to treat people in the ICU when they don't stand a chance of survival.

I think the availability of ICU beds is an important factor for morale though - even though we're talking about a tiny proportion of the patient population, when there are no more beds available, you're going to get panic and that's not what we need at all. Ventilators are an important 'we are in control' symbol.

Interesting perspective.   From what I’ve seen in America the most medical care is overwhelmingly spent on people that are in the end phases of life.   Treatments become invasive and very expensive when the odds of success are exceedingly low.  I never understood this.  “An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cures” is not something practiced in American medicine, or at least not something taken seriously.

At the very least this is a very expensive psychological experiment.   I do like the importance you’ve stressed regarding the psychology, that seems to be overlooked.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2020, 09:15:06 AM by egillespie »

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #578 on: April 04, 2020, 09:41:24 AM »
I saw a news story from a doctor in New York, talking about a patient coming in from a nursing home with coronavirus, and the patient came in with a ventilator that they had been on even before getting the virus.  The doctor was feeling guilty because she was thinking "there's another ventilator" whereas I was horrified that a patient in a nursing home would be "maintained" on a ventilator in the first place.

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #579 on: April 04, 2020, 10:45:43 AM »
I saw a news story from a doctor in New York, talking about a patient coming in from a nursing home with coronavirus, and the patient came in with a ventilator that they had been on even before getting the virus.  The doctor was feeling guilty because she was thinking "there's another ventilator" whereas I was horrified that a patient in a nursing home would be "maintained" on a ventilator in the first place.

I don't really understand? The patient in the nursing home could have required a ventilator for any number of reasons. What do you expect the nursing home to do, just let them die of whatever condition they had?

SunnyDays

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #580 on: April 04, 2020, 10:51:33 AM »
Is an effective COVID-19 vaccination possible?

I thought attempts at vaccines for other coronavirus strains (SARS) have been unsuccessful?

Regarding ventilators, from what I’ve read the survival rate once a COVID-19 patient has been placed on a ventilator is only about 15%.  Those aren’t good treatment odds, so I’m not quite sure the importance placed on a last resort treatment that is not particularly effective.
Because not doing it is a death sentence?  And because medics are a bit squeamish at handing those out and relatives "want everything done".

Those are incredibly low odds - in my country the estimates are that 60-70% of those in intensive care survive. Of course we have a different culture around death where it's not the done thing to treat people in the ICU when they don't stand a chance of survival.

I think the availability of ICU beds is an important factor for morale though - even though we're talking about a tiny proportion of the patient population, when there are no more beds available, you're going to get panic and that's not what we need at all. Ventilators are an important 'we are in control' symbol.

Edit: see I mixed up some words.

Rates may differ because not all patients in ICU, in fact, probably a minority of them, are on a ventilator.

GuitarStv

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #581 on: April 04, 2020, 12:12:54 PM »
Is an effective COVID-19 vaccination possible?

I thought attempts at vaccines for other coronavirus strains (SARS) have been unsuccessful?

Regarding ventilators, from what I’ve read the survival rate once a COVID-19 patient has been placed on a ventilator is only about 15%.  Those aren’t good treatment odds, so I’m not quite sure the importance placed on a last resort treatment that is not particularly effective.
Because not doing it is a death sentence?  And because medics are a bit squeamish at handing those out and relatives "want everything done".

Those are incredibly low odds - in my country the estimates are that 60-70% of those in intensive care survive. Of course we have a different culture around death where it's not the done thing to treat people in the ICU when they don't stand a chance of survival.

I think the availability of ICU beds is an important factor for morale though - even though we're talking about a tiny proportion of the patient population, when there are no more beds available, you're going to get panic and that's not what we need at all. Ventilators are an important 'we are in control' symbol.

Edit: see I mixed up some words.

What percentage of those who survive do so with permanent lung damage?

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #582 on: April 04, 2020, 12:26:37 PM »
Is an effective COVID-19 vaccination possible?

I thought attempts at vaccines for other coronavirus strains (SARS) have been unsuccessful?

Regarding ventilators, from what I’ve read the survival rate once a COVID-19 patient has been placed on a ventilator is only about 15%.  Those aren’t good treatment odds, so I’m not quite sure the importance placed on a last resort treatment that is not particularly effective.
Because not doing it is a death sentence?  And because medics are a bit squeamish at handing those out and relatives "want everything done".
No kidding.   Given a choice between a 15% chance of living and a 0.00001% chance of living due to a miracle, I'll pick 15%!   

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #583 on: April 04, 2020, 12:29:45 PM »
I saw a news story from a doctor in New York, talking about a patient coming in from a nursing home with coronavirus, and the patient came in with a ventilator that they had been on even before getting the virus.  The doctor was feeling guilty because she was thinking "there's another ventilator" whereas I was horrified that a patient in a nursing home would be "maintained" on a ventilator in the first place.

I don't really understand? The patient in the nursing home could have required a ventilator for any number of reasons. What do you expect the nursing home to do, just let them die of whatever condition they had?
The impression I got was that this was a person in a nursing home who was permanently on a ventilator: ie permanently kept sedated and artificially breathing, with no improvement expected.  Inhumane, and the end result of "we want everything done to keep this person alive".

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #584 on: April 04, 2020, 12:39:01 PM »
Some quadriplegics require a ventilator at all times.

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #585 on: April 04, 2020, 02:41:07 PM »
Some quadriplegics require a ventilator at all times.
Right.  But more of an "iron lung" type than the type of ventilator that is needed for covid-19 patients, which is full sedation and tubes down the throat, right?

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #586 on: April 04, 2020, 06:11:06 PM »
I saw a news story from a doctor in New York, talking about a patient coming in from a nursing home with coronavirus, and the patient came in with a ventilator that they had been on even before getting the virus.  The doctor was feeling guilty because she was thinking "there's another ventilator" whereas I was horrified that a patient in a nursing home would be "maintained" on a ventilator in the first place.

I don't really understand? The patient in the nursing home could have required a ventilator for any number of reasons. What do you expect the nursing home to do, just let them die of whatever condition they had?
The impression I got was that this was a person in a nursing home who was permanently on a ventilator: ie permanently kept sedated and artificially breathing, with no improvement expected.  Inhumane, and the end result of "we want everything done to keep this person alive".

Some quadriplegics require a ventilator at all times.
Right.  But more of an "iron lung" type than the type of ventilator that is needed for covid-19 patients, which is full sedation and tubes down the throat, right?

When someone needs long-term ventilator support, like a quadriplegic, they will get a tracheostomy. This is surgical access through your neck to your trachea. Once in place, this does not need sedation like the standard breathing tube that goes through your mouth, because it's not painful or irritating.

So the patient in the nursing home on a ventilator would not be (pharmaceutically) sedated and out of it.

But the ventilator itself would likely be nearly identical to the ventilators used in the ICU on COVID patients.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #587 on: April 04, 2020, 06:48:34 PM »
Some quadriplegics require a ventilator at all times.
Right.  But more of an "iron lung" type than the type of ventilator that is needed for covid-19 patients, which is full sedation and tubes down the throat, right?

No, it's the same ventilator with a tracheostomy for attachment. People who aren't able to breath for themselves because they are paralysed don't need sedation. The sedation is to prevent your body fighting the ventilator (it's quite painful to be intubated). It's not quite the sedation you're thinking of, although it does leave you unable to move. It turns off your signals to breath, so you don't make any attempt to. Anyone intubated has this kind of sedation. There are other conditions that cause people to need a ventilator, not just full body paralysis. ALS causes progressive problems with the throat and breathing. Muscle wasting diseases can mean people don't have the strength to breath for themselves.

Edit to add: Christopher Reeve was on a ventilator for quite some time after his accident. He was alert, able to talk and interact with his family and those around him. I wouldn't begrudge him those years of life. The poor guy also had recurrent infections and problems with his ventilator. It has multiple fail safes that kick in so it won't stop, but it is a complex machine and things go awry. If it stopped, he would have to wait, needing oxygen but not being able to do a thing about it, until the secondary systems kicked in. He couldn't even call for help because that requires and out breath. It's only seconds but I imagine they were some long seconds. Extremely unpleasant but I'm pretty sure he would say it was worth it.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2020, 06:54:20 PM by AnnaGrowsAMustache »

LaineyAZ

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #588 on: April 04, 2020, 07:05:05 PM »
My son, who is a very knowledgeable and attentive source for things in Georgia, said the Governor of Georgia just put statewide restrictions on movement into effect.

He and a number of public health and civic leaders in his part of the state are livid about this because the governor also cancelled all local city and county restrictions with that executive order.

His own area had more stringent restrictions in place and has NOT had the kind of exponential growth other areas are getting.  Now those tougher restrictions are lifted.

I'm waiting to see what the official public response from public health and civic leaders in his part of the state will be to this.

Same situation here in AZ.  Our Republican governor has specifically forbade cities from having more stringent regulations. 
The same governor who finally decided - yesterday - that barbershops and hair salons are not essential businesses. 
Here we are at the mercy of these ideological idiots.  There's blood on their hands.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2020, 07:12:09 PM by LaineyAZ »


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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #590 on: April 04, 2020, 09:45:17 PM »
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/04/coronavirus-trump-says-states-playing-politics-ventilator-requests/5111963002/

How can Trump be so incredibly stupid?  People dying of Covid is not a political gambit.  I'm not an epidemiologist, but I am capable of just looking at the increasing number of diagnosed cases and it is inevitable that the number of hospitalizations and demand for ventilators will spike in the 'hot spots'.  Even if diagnosed cases magically plateaued tomorrow, the current cases will become hospitalizations.  We need an apolitical response to these requests for assistance, knowing what is coming and where ventilators are needed is an optimization vs. data problem - our President is utterly failing us.

Imma

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #591 on: April 05, 2020, 12:31:37 AM »
Is an effective COVID-19 vaccination possible?

I thought attempts at vaccines for other coronavirus strains (SARS) have been unsuccessful?

Regarding ventilators, from what I’ve read the survival rate once a COVID-19 patient has been placed on a ventilator is only about 15%.  Those aren’t good treatment odds, so I’m not quite sure the importance placed on a last resort treatment that is not particularly effective.
Because not doing it is a death sentence?  And because medics are a bit squeamish at handing those out and relatives "want everything done".

Those are incredibly low odds - in my country the estimates are that 60-70% of those in intensive care survive. Of course we have a different culture around death where it's not the done thing to treat people in the ICU when they don't stand a chance of survival.

I think the availability of ICU beds is an important factor for morale though - even though we're talking about a tiny proportion of the patient population, when there are no more beds available, you're going to get panic and that's not what we need at all. Ventilators are an important 'we are in control' symbol.

Edit: see I mixed up some words.

What percentage of those who survive do so with permanent lung damage?

As no one who had been in the ICU has even left hospital yet, and Covid-19 has only been around for a couple of months, no one knows for sure what the long term prognosis is. Under normal circumstances we know that 50% of those admitted to ICU will never again reach the level of health they had before and many SARS patients have permanent lung damage.

@SunnyDays at least in my country for Covid-19 basically everyone in ICU is on a ventilator, some people with this disease also get kidney failure. All other care except for ventilation can be given in regular hospital departments. And a certain % of beds is reserved for non-corona related emergencies.

@SwordGuy in my culture that would be a very unusual choice, but of course everyone can make their own choices. A close relative of mine has passed away from Covid-19 and they were basically given that exact prognosis + the information about what their expected quality of life would be afterwards. They chose no ICU and passed away about a week later with their children by their bedside. No ICU had been in their medical directive since they were about 70 and that's pretty common around here. If I was in the situation where I had a 85% odds of dying alone in ICU and 15% of surviving but bedridden in a nursing home I think my choice is clear.

lemanfan

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #592 on: April 05, 2020, 01:14:00 AM »
One thing that really can affect our future is trust between nations.  Now I'm thinking of how medical supplies are shipped around the world - or not shipped.

In the US, there has been some talk confication of stuff headed for other countries from 3M I think, and in Europe one manufacturer (Mölnlycke) had a logtistics center in France which lead to that the French tried to grab a hold of supplies headed for e.g. Italy and Spain.  This French situation seems resolved now, thank god. 

But what will the long term effects be of trust between countries?


Imma

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #593 on: April 05, 2020, 01:29:38 AM »
One thing that really can affect our future is trust between nations.  Now I'm thinking of how medical supplies are shipped around the world - or not shipped.

In the US, there has been some talk confication of stuff headed for other countries from 3M I think, and in Europe one manufacturer (Mölnlycke) had a logtistics center in France which lead to that the French tried to grab a hold of supplies headed for e.g. Italy and Spain.  This French situation seems resolved now, thank god. 

But what will the long term effects be of trust between countries?

I think after this the balance of power in the world will definitely have shifted from the USA to China. That's been going on for a while, but Trump has adopted an America first policy now, while China is generous. They are sending loads of medical supplies to Europe. I expect them to financially generous in the aftermath too, like the US was after WWII.

In Europe there is some loyalty between some countries (we are cooperating with our close neighbours/alles) but very little on the EU-level. Honestly, as much as I am pro-EU, I wonder whether the EU is doomed if this is the level of cooperation we have in an emergency.

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #594 on: April 05, 2020, 01:35:20 AM »
One thing that really can affect our future is trust between nations.  Now I'm thinking of how medical supplies are shipped around the world - or not shipped.

In the US, there has been some talk confication of stuff headed for other countries from 3M I think, and in Europe one manufacturer (Mölnlycke) had a logtistics center in France which lead to that the French tried to grab a hold of supplies headed for e.g. Italy and Spain.  This French situation seems resolved now, thank god. 

But what will the long term effects be of trust between countries?

I think after this the balance of power in the world will definitely have shifted from the USA to China. That's been going on for a while, but Trump has adopted an America first policy now, while China is generous. They are sending loads of medical supplies to Europe. I expect them to financially generous in the aftermath too, like the US was after WWII.

In Europe there is some loyalty between some countries (we are cooperating with our close neighbours/alles) but very little on the EU-level. Honestly, as much as I am pro-EU, I wonder whether the EU is doomed if this is the level of cooperation we have in an emergency.

To be fair, China did offer medical masks and supplies to the US. The US rejected their offer to help. Said their supplies (N95 masks that meet non-US standards)) “do not meet quality standards”. A few days later, the US CDC recommended that everyone wear homemade cloth masks and hospitals are asking Americans to sew cloth masks for their personnel. I doubt homemade cloth masks are better than the N95 masks offered by China.

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #595 on: April 05, 2020, 01:48:13 AM »
News stories here say th US has now accepted several shipments of this gear from China.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #596 on: April 05, 2020, 01:55:27 AM »
So based on a couple of studies the percentage of people surviving after needing a ventilator ranged from 14% in China, to 33% in the UK, to 33-50% in the US.

Quote
The largest study so far to look at mortality among coronavirus patients on ventilators was done by the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre in London. It found that among 98 ventilated patients in the U.K., just 33 were discharged alive.

The numbers from a study of Wuhan, China, are even grimmer. Only 3 of 22 ventilated patients survived.
And a study of 18 ventilated patients in Washington state found that nine were still alive when the study ended, but only six had recovered enough to breathe on their own.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/02/826105278/ventilators-are-no-panacea-for-critically-ill-covid-19-patients

I'd say a 1/3 chance of survival, perhaps 1/2, is worth the effort.

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #597 on: April 05, 2020, 02:14:43 AM »
I saw a news story from a doctor in New York, talking about a patient coming in from a nursing home with coronavirus, and the patient came in with a ventilator that they had been on even before getting the virus.  The doctor was feeling guilty because she was thinking "there's another ventilator" whereas I was horrified that a patient in a nursing home would be "maintained" on a ventilator in the first place.

I don't really understand? The patient in the nursing home could have required a ventilator for any number of reasons. What do you expect the nursing home to do, just let them die of whatever condition they had?
The impression I got was that this was a person in a nursing home who was permanently on a ventilator: ie permanently kept sedated and artificially breathing, with no improvement expected.  Inhumane, and the end result of "we want everything done to keep this person alive".

Some quadriplegics require a ventilator at all times.
Right.  But more of an "iron lung" type than the type of ventilator that is needed for covid-19 patients, which is full sedation and tubes down the throat, right?

When someone needs long-term ventilator support, like a quadriplegic, they will get a tracheostomy. This is surgical access through your neck to your trachea. Once in place, this does not need sedation like the standard breathing tube that goes through your mouth, because it's not painful or irritating.

So the patient in the nursing home on a ventilator would not be (pharmaceutically) sedated and out of it.

But the ventilator itself would likely be nearly identical to the ventilators used in the ICU on COVID patients.
OK, got it, thanks.  So more like the iron lung option I was thinking about but adaptable for the ICU sedated use.  That's significantly better than I thought, but I can also see that when someone with such a fragile and marginal hold on life then gets COVID-19 it must pretty much be a death sentence.

Freedomin5

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #598 on: April 05, 2020, 02:57:40 AM »
News stories here say th US has now accepted several shipments of this gear from China.

Hopefully that is true. As of last Thursday, one of my Chinese friends in the states tried to bulk order medical masks from China through her contacts. Her family has an essential business in the US and their staff needed masks since they handle food production. She was unable to do so because “American stopped accepting masks from China, unless they are FDA approved, and that reduced number of providers to 10.” Those were her words. The companies she wanted to order from couldn’t ship the masks. Perhaps the US has changed its mind in the last three days.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #599 on: April 05, 2020, 03:06:09 AM »
I saw a news story from a doctor in New York, talking about a patient coming in from a nursing home with coronavirus, and the patient came in with a ventilator that they had been on even before getting the virus.  The doctor was feeling guilty because she was thinking "there's another ventilator" whereas I was horrified that a patient in a nursing home would be "maintained" on a ventilator in the first place.

I don't really understand? The patient in the nursing home could have required a ventilator for any number of reasons. What do you expect the nursing home to do, just let them die of whatever condition they had?
The impression I got was that this was a person in a nursing home who was permanently on a ventilator: ie permanently kept sedated and artificially breathing, with no improvement expected.  Inhumane, and the end result of "we want everything done to keep this person alive".

Some quadriplegics require a ventilator at all times.
Right.  But more of an "iron lung" type than the type of ventilator that is needed for covid-19 patients, which is full sedation and tubes down the throat, right?

When someone needs long-term ventilator support, like a quadriplegic, they will get a tracheostomy. This is surgical access through your neck to your trachea. Once in place, this does not need sedation like the standard breathing tube that goes through your mouth, because it's not painful or irritating.

So the patient in the nursing home on a ventilator would not be (pharmaceutically) sedated and out of it.

But the ventilator itself would likely be nearly identical to the ventilators used in the ICU on COVID patients.
OK, got it, thanks.  So more like the iron lung option I was thinking about but adaptable for the ICU sedated use.  That's significantly better than I thought, but I can also see that when someone with such a fragile and marginal hold on life then gets COVID-19 it must pretty much be a death sentence.

A ventilator is nothing at all like an iron lung. Not even close. Think Christopher Reeve in his wheelchair. That's a ventilator with a trach.


This is an iron lung. It's a terrible, restrictive and vastly old fashioned device