Author Topic: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?  (Read 92339 times)

Telecaster

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3551
  • Location: Seattle, WA
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #500 on: March 27, 2020, 06:11:11 PM »
Well, as I stated in the contrarian thread, there seems to be at least a third option of quarantine for the elderly and vulnerable and school, University and work for the others. It has been carefully discussed in the German Bundestag yesterday as virologists have advised to do this.
There is a problem of treating the population unequally when doing this so alone for that reason it may not happen but it is discussed as a solution to the problem and it will be interesting to see what is decided.

I'm not sure that's a viable option for practical reasons.  Major US airlines had already stopped flying to China before the travel restrictions were announced.  Domestically, where there are almost no travel restrictions, yet airlines are canceling flights and those that aren't canceled are flying virtually empty.  In Seattle where I live many restaurants had already closed for lack of business--some permanently--before any restrictions on public gatherings were in effect.  Boeing factory workers who are deemed essential almost revolted until Boeing wound up closing down the lines anyway.  The economy will not recover until people feel like this issue is under control. 

One proposal is to protect the more vulnerable while everyone else goes about their business.  How does this work?  A large percentage of people over 65 live in multi-generational households.  If grandma can't live at home, what do we do with her?  Do we have a safe place for her to live?   And what if grandma provides a caregiver role for the grandkids?  Like say, when mom is at work.   Who takes care of the kids now?  What if grandma is the only caregiver?   

And what's the sequelae?  Can you say for sure it is a good idea to let this thing burn itself out? 

The only rationale response is what we are sort of doing:  Clamp things down and buy time until we can do widespread testing and contact tracing and work on treatments and vaccines.  The economy will never recover until we do those things.

Anette

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 290
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #501 on: March 28, 2020, 02:30:38 AM »
@Telecaster
Since Wednesday when this was first discussed (to my knowledge) there have been more politicians talking about this but keeping in mind this could happen earliest at the end of April. Ultimately that seems the only way? I am not certain how they are doing this in China?
It also is possibly a different situation in Germany as we started testing much earlier than the US, have tested more people per 1000 inhabitants and have according to different sources 3-4x more ICU and general hospital beds available (during normal times).
How this develops remains to be seen, though

Michael in ABQ

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2626
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #502 on: March 28, 2020, 05:12:32 AM »
I would guess that many small businesses will never reopen. Restaurants in particular don’t have a huge profit margin.

That's okay about the restaurants, though, according to Trump:

“I’ve heard 3 percent could be lost, and you could go as high as 10 or 11 percent, but they’ll all come back in one form of another. Might be a different restaurant. But it’s gonna be a great business for a lot of people. We’re making it easy for people — look, what we’re doing in terms of loans, what we’re doing in terms of salaries, they’ll all come back. It may not be the same restaurant, it may not be the same ownership, but they’ll all be back.”


So, why do we need to bail out the airlines & cruise lines again, and resorts?  They'll all come back in some form or fashion.

Because ultra-rich people who buy and sell congressmen don't own stock in the neighborhood restaurant, but they do own stock in the big businesses.

That's why.

Follow the money.

Yep. Pretty much.

To be fair, in normal times if an airline went bankrupt (which many have) they would keep operating, restructure, and continue on. Or they would get bought out by a competitor or outside investor who sees a good deal. All of those things could still happen. There's plenty of money on the sidelines and I'm sure for a 50-80% discount over what they were trading a few months ago, someone would be willing to buy a cruise line, airline, hotel chain, etc.. But that would also mean a lot of shareholders lose everything, probably some bondholders, and lots of others down the line who extended credit to these companies in one form or another would suffer large losses and also go out of business. It's all interconnected and while I loathe the idea of spending hundreds of billions to rescue companies, I do recognize that the alternative would probably be worse. This is not a 20-30% drop in sales, it's a 90%+ drop in sales. No business can survive that for long, even if they start laying people off left and right. There are still fixed expenses that they're contractually obligated to pay.

T-Money$

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 233
  • Location: New York
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #503 on: March 28, 2020, 06:18:10 AM »
In addition, the government more or less prohibited the airlines from operating most of their routes.  In some cases regulation increased, in other cases certain passengers were banned, in yet other cases airlines can no longer operate specific flights.  It seems reasonable the airlines have a claim against the public and their officials.  I'm of the opinion many other businesses also have claims, however not everyone has clout -- and this is where the real travesty is in all of this.
 
Aviation should be treated like a public service, like a fire department or the public water utility.  It is too vulnerable to the irrationality of civilization, hysteria, war, terrorism, etc., to be a long term viable market based entity.  Yes, I think the airlines should be nationalized.

Once this is all over and the fear is reduced, there will be less flights available, more seats crammed into already tight spaces, airline travel will become more expensive and the customer service will be worse (if that is even imaginable).   Have fun.

Getting back to the original post in this thread.  There has been a lot of talk on social media apparently (aside from this forum I don't participate) about people not taking COVID-19 "seriously".  My feeling is this type of thought process, this mindset, is irrational. 

I had a rough childhood growing up.  The byproduct of two narcissistic and alcoholic parents, I had a lot of hysteria and hypochondria.  There were many months of wasted medical tests, irrational fear, depression, over and over again.  I learned to not think that way, but honestly this took years.  I'm a better person for it as the hypochondria and narcissistic thinking is a very self destructive process and also hurt those around me.  I see A LOT of this type of behavior in society now, even in our politicians and policies.  One of the most important things I learned reflecting about my own behavior is that when hysterical, reason, science and rationality are irrelevant.  People will destroy everything they know and have to satisfy their subconscious demons. 

Statistics show healthy people are rarely effected by this virus other than at most mild symptoms.   For healthy people, this virus is literally as risky as a flu and nothing more.  The majority of people in America are clearly unhealthy and have multiple pre-existing conditions (most chronic illness is preventable and reversible).   For decades people in America have not taken their health seriously, obvious examples are obesity, diet, mental health and drug/alcohol addiction.  All of a sudden people are taking their health seriously?  I'm not buying what you are selling.   People are reacting because of irrational fear, and when people do that they are very likely to make bad choices (from my own experience).

A morbidly obese person in a grocery store wearing a mask stocking up on unhealthy frozen foods and toilet paper and practicing social distancing is not someone who is taking their health seriously.   Meanwhile, the majority of healthy people will get exposed to this virus, infected, develop immunity and not even know anything happened.

The science behind quarantines, lockdowns and social distancing is dubious.  There are studies that show the virus is already widespread.  There are studies that show there is not much health benefit from the catastrophic economic damage we are doing.  In addition, those that support the lockdowns and quarantines all but ignore the mental health ramifications, the poverty and all the other social ills that go along with these policies -- but again, it's impossible to reason with hysteria (I know from experience).  We won't know until there is a lot more testing, so current policy is based on theory, fear and previous fatality estimates that were likely much too high -- by orders of magnitude.

We are in this situation because people didn't take their health seriously.  People don't eat healthy, they don't exercise, they don't deal with conditions they already have.  We don't have nearly the amount of ICU facilities as Europe -- and now all of us will suffer significantly for years to come because people have not taken their health and healthcare seriously.  Many people are sitting ducks for this illness because of their previous inability to take their health seriously, and now we all have to pay for their immaturity. Many people will have their lives turned upside down even though the virus will never cause them symptoms.

On the extreme I think it can be argued this is not a public health crisis.  This is a crisis for those already ill, but those that are already ill are taking the rest of society down with them.

So don't give me that "not taking COVID-19 seriously" crap.  I've taken my physical and mental health extremely seriously and because of that I am not concerned about this virus at all.  I am however very concerned about the irrational psychology and the future effects as a consequence of such behavior.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 06:26:45 AM by egillespie »

Lews Therin

  • CMTO 2023 Attendees
  • Magnum Stache
  • *
  • Posts: 3896
  • Age: 34
  • Location: Gatineau
  • Fee-only Financial Planner
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #504 on: March 28, 2020, 08:05:18 AM »

On the extreme I think it can be argued this is not a public health crisis.  This is a crisis for those already ill, but those that are already ill are taking the rest of society down with them.

So don't give me that "not taking COVID-19 seriously" crap.  I've taken my physical and mental health extremely seriously and because of that I am not concerned about this virus at all.  I am however very concerned about the irrational psychology and the future effects as a consequence of such behavior.

It's sadly not only unhealthy people that die, (though they are at higher risk) but also people who are simply sick or older or younger.
The other point is that death skyrocket in percentages when hospitals become full, because people don't have access to the equipment that would save their lives.

Linked a graphic from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus  (Following Europe's CDC numbers)

Note China, South Corea and Japan, VS Europe, IRAN ... It's a pretty visible and aggressively clear way of visualizing what concrete and effective measures does to the death rate. (SK and China put in place VERY severe restrictions, and contact chaining.)

(In the link, you can watch the video as it shows time advancing. It's pretty cool.)

T-Money$

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 233
  • Location: New York
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #505 on: March 28, 2020, 08:44:49 AM »

On the extreme I think it can be argued this is not a public health crisis.  This is a crisis for those already ill, but those that are already ill are taking the rest of society down with them.

So don't give me that "not taking COVID-19 seriously" crap.  I've taken my physical and mental health extremely seriously and because of that I am not concerned about this virus at all.  I am however very concerned about the irrational psychology and the future effects as a consequence of such behavior.

It's sadly not only unhealthy people that die, (though they are at higher risk) but also people who are simply sick or older or younger.
The other point is that death skyrocket in percentages when hospitals become full, because people don't have access to the equipment that would save their lives.

Linked a graphic from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus  (Following Europe's CDC numbers)

Note China, South Corea and Japan, VS Europe, IRAN ... It's a pretty visible and aggressively clear way of visualizing what concrete and effective measures does to the death rate. (SK and China put in place VERY severe restrictions, and contact chaining.)

(In the link, you can watch the video as it shows time advancing. It's pretty cool.)

Understood, and the graph is very cool. 

I'm not aware of any deaths in younger healthy people.  There have been one or two anecdotal stories in the news about the death of teenagers, but without data I view them with skepticism.  Also, a typical influenza strain kills young people every year, sadly even those that have been immunized. 

Unlike H1N1 which typically killed younger people at much higher rates than the elderly.  I've read this is because elderly probably had an immunity, but that is a theory I suspect. 

The testimonials and anecdotal stories I meet with great skepticism.  The New York Times had an opinion piece published today written by one of their staff.  A typical story to scare and intimidate, we should take the virus "seriously".  The author claimed to be "generally" healthy, however vaguely admitted to smoking, but he quit some time ago he said.  Looking at his pictures online, he is not a healthy BMI, so being a middle aged person he may very well  be hypertensive.  Hypertensive medications, especially ACE inhibitors have been potentially shown to lead to respiratory problems with COVID-19.

One of the most effective ways to deal with hypochondria is to look at science and data.  Testimonials and emotional thoughts are the opposite of reality, so I've learned to discount them as much as possible for my own serenity.  Humans are notoriously very bad at assessing risk -- hysterical humans even more so. 
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 08:49:18 AM by egillespie »

beltim

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2957
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #506 on: March 28, 2020, 08:52:07 AM »
Statistics show healthy people are rarely effected by this virus other than at most mild symptoms.   For healthy people, this virus is literally as risky as a flu and nothing more.  The majority of people in America are clearly unhealthy and have multiple pre-existing conditions (most chronic illness is preventable and reversible).   For decades people in America have not taken their health seriously, obvious examples are obesity, diet, mental health and drug/alcohol addiction.  All of a sudden people are taking their health seriously?  I'm not buying what you are selling.   People are reacting because of irrational fear, and when people do that they are very likely to make bad choices (from my own experience).

This is false.  Disseminating this sort of false information is dangerous - you are literally advocating that people put their lives at risk because you are repeating false information.

Let's put aside the fact that the death rate from COVID-19 is 10-20 times higher than that of the flu1.  Let's talk about how hospitalizations from COVID-19 are also 5-20 higher than that of the flu and not just affecting those with ores-existing confitions2.  Let's talk about how hospitalizations in the US are hitting every adult age group without a big difference in prevalence3. And how it's about twice as infectious4, which since that's an exponential means that it runs through the population way more than twice as fast.  Let's talk about how those who are hospitalized (remember, at 5-20 times the rate of flu) are twice as likely to need to be in the ICU and on mechanical ventilation even compared to a "bad" flu5.
Let's talk about how all the things you're saying about COVID-19 being more likely to hit those with preexisting health conditions are also true for the flu6.  Let's talk about how Olympic athletes are saying it's the worst disease they've ever had7 and need to be hospitalized8.

This disease does not only affect the healthy.  Unless you're saying multiple Olympic athletes aren't healthy?

There's a reason people are saying that you're not taking this seriously.  You think you're invulnerable, but you're not.  You think this isn't a big deal, but it is. 

I don't have time to do the same breakdown for your other wrong points, but I assure you that the science behind quarantines, lockdowns, and social distancing is very well validated.  Look at different countries responses to this, the relative infection rates, and the relative death rates, and you'll see the real-world efficacy of different measure for this very virus.


1https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/
2 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
3 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-young-people-hospitalized-covid-19-chart/
4 https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
5 https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-model-shows-hospitals-what-to-expect/  and https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/full/10.1164/rccm.201401-0066LE
6 https://www.medpagetoday.com/resource-centers/contemporary-approaches-influenza-a-b/icu-admission-and-mortality-during-flu-season/2391
7 https://www.aa.com.tr/en/latest-on-coronavirus-outbreak/olympic-gold-medalist-van-der-burgh-battling-covid-19/1775843
8 https://www.aipsmedia.com/index.html?page=artdetail&art=27586&CoronavirusItalyEdoardo-Melloni

SwordGuy

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8955
  • Location: Fayetteville, NC
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #507 on: March 28, 2020, 09:09:59 AM »
Yes, @egillespie ,  the asthma I've had since I was a child (when I most assuredly was not obese) is a clear sign of a moral failing in me.

You're right, I deserve to die early.    #DieForTheDow!


Lews Therin

  • CMTO 2023 Attendees
  • Magnum Stache
  • *
  • Posts: 3896
  • Age: 34
  • Location: Gatineau
  • Fee-only Financial Planner
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #508 on: March 28, 2020, 09:11:32 AM »
To join in on Beltim's point: (Reference point 3) https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-young-people-hospitalized-covid-19-chart/

Note the ICU admissions. Those are the ones that will turn into deaths if the hospitals are overwhelmed. Which is why the distancing measures are so important. They are surviving now, but if the hospitals are full, not only would they die, but every other injury/illness that requires the same beds/machines/care will also increase in mortality.


beltim

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2957
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #509 on: March 28, 2020, 09:14:55 AM »
To join in on Beltim's point: (Reference point 3) https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-young-people-hospitalized-covid-19-chart/

Note the ICU admissions. Those are the ones that will turn into deaths if the hospitals are overwhelmed. Which is why the distancing measures are so important. They are surviving now, but if the hospitals are full, not only would they die, but every other injury/illness that requires the same beds/machines/care will also increase in mortality.

Good addition!  I meant to include that and forgot about it while getting sources.  This is such a huge, huge critical point that is the basic reason for social distancing and why "flattening the curve" saves so many lives.

Also, good graphic from your earlier post.  That's such a good illustration of how we can look in near-real time how different measures stack up in efficacy.

T-Money$

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 233
  • Location: New York
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #510 on: March 28, 2020, 09:23:19 AM »
Statistics show healthy people are rarely effected by this virus other than at most mild symptoms.   For healthy people, this virus is literally as risky as a flu and nothing more.  The majority of people in America are clearly unhealthy and have multiple pre-existing conditions (most chronic illness is preventable and reversible).   For decades people in America have not taken their health seriously, obvious examples are obesity, diet, mental health and drug/alcohol addiction.  All of a sudden people are taking their health seriously?  I'm not buying what you are selling.   People are reacting because of irrational fear, and when people do that they are very likely to make bad choices (from my own experience).

This is false.  Disseminating this sort of false information is dangerous - you are literally advocating that people put their lives at risk because you are repeating false information.

Let's put aside the fact that the death rate from COVID-19 is 10-20 times higher than that of the flu1.  Let's talk about how hospitalizations from COVID-19 are also 5-20 higher than that of the flu and not just affecting those with ores-existing confitions2.  Let's talk about how hospitalizations in the US are hitting every adult age group without a big difference in prevalence3. And how it's about twice as infectious4, which since that's an exponential means that it runs through the population way more than twice as fast.  Let's talk about how those who are hospitalized (remember, at 5-20 times the rate of flu) are twice as likely to need to be in the ICU and on mechanical ventilation even compared to a "bad" flu5.
Let's talk about how all the things you're saying about COVID-19 being more likely to hit those with preexisting health conditions are also true for the flu6.  Let's talk about how Olympic athletes are saying it's the worst disease they've ever had7 and need to be hospitalized8.

This disease does not only affect the healthy.  Unless you're saying multiple Olympic athletes aren't healthy?

There's a reason people are saying that you're not taking this seriously.  You think you're invulnerable, but you're not.  You think this isn't a big deal, but it is. 

I don't have time to do the same breakdown for your other wrong points, but I assure you that the science behind quarantines, lockdowns, and social distancing is very well validated.  Look at different countries responses to this, the relative infection rates, and the relative death rates, and you'll see the real-world efficacy of different measure for this very virus.


1https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/
2 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
3 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-young-people-hospitalized-covid-19-chart/
4 https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
5 https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-model-shows-hospitals-what-to-expect/  and https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/full/10.1164/rccm.201401-0066LE
6 https://www.medpagetoday.com/resource-centers/contemporary-approaches-influenza-a-b/icu-admission-and-mortality-during-flu-season/2391
7 https://www.aa.com.tr/en/latest-on-coronavirus-outbreak/olympic-gold-medalist-van-der-burgh-battling-covid-19/1775843
8 https://www.aipsmedia.com/index.html?page=artdetail&art=27586&CoronavirusItalyEdoardo-Melloni

Much of the data you presented I will disagree with.  Regarding the case rate, there are obviously many more people infected with the virus than just those that have tested positive.  So any data regarding mortality that only deals with positive cases is clearly flawed, probably by several magnitudes, if not more.

As more people are tested, the virus "appears" to become less deadly.  Most people that have COVID-19 are asymptomatic and are never tested.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/821958435/why-death-rates-from-coronavirus-can-be-deceiving

Also, you are citing data that is obsolete and has already been prevented as false:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7

Even Dr. Fauci has hypothesized the actual death rate from the virus could be substantially lower than 1%:

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-02-28/china-study-puts-coronavirus-death-rate-at-14-37-real-number-may-be-lower

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/coronavirus-fatality-rate-computing-difficult/#slide-1

Regarding the death rates and effectiveness of social distancing and lockdowns, compare Sweden and Denmark.  Sweden has allowed most businesses and most schools to stay open, while Denmark has locked down.  As of writing this both countries have the same fatality rate (Sweden has approximately twice the population as Denmark).  If the Swedish death rate does in fact increase significantly above Denmark, then I'll be happy to change my thoughts.

Regarding testimonials and anecdotal stories, I already wrote above why I do not feel they are credible.  Just because someone says they are healthy doesn't mean they really are.  In addition, I know immunized children that have been hospitalized from the flu this year, but their cases are very rare.  When I was asthmatic I went into cardiac arrest during an asthma attack, but this is a very rare occurrence and not indicative of the overwhelming majority of asthmatic cases.

Regarding hospitals becoming overburdened, I agree.  However, at least in my part of the country every general practitioner, medical office and even urgent care centers are closed.  If someone has an unexpected or significant health problem that needs treatment there is nowhere to go but to the hospital.  Even without COVID-19 the hospitals will become overburdened. 

I've learned to only learned to rely on science and data.  The more people are tested, the base case studies indicate to me this disease isn't nearly as lethal as previously estimated.  Yes, there will be cases where people that are otherwise healthy die, but the data shows these cases are exceedingly rare. 

Relying on testimonials and anecdotal stories does lead to hysteria.  Reacting to fear based on those stories leads to bad decisions that effect us all.

Regarding the smart mouth asthma comment above.  I have asthma too, I've been on prednisone, hospitalized and even went through cardiac arrest due to an overdose of medicine while in a hospital.  Also, good luck to the millions of kids out there whose parents are now unemployed.  How will they get their asthma medicine and inhalers?  Have you ever had an asthma attack and no medicine available?  I have.  It sucks worse than COVID-19, quite frankly.  I will take my luck with a virus that in most cases causes at most mild symptoms versus having a severe asthma attack at night without any medicine available.  This will now not be a choice for a lot of children.

I invite you to look at this:

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/03/health/03brod.html

Asthma is largely preventable through natural means.  If you choose to take the anti inflammatories and steroids for your condition I'm sure you know they can cause chronic organ damage and immunity problems.  Stay healthy.  However, because some people are at high risk doesn't mean all of society needs to be locked down.  There are plenty of reasonable theories that indicate only locking down and quarantine those most at risk is preferable, may lead to better health outcomes for the entire population and also reduce the economic impact. 

I will be more than happy to change my viewpoints as the disease progresses and more is learned. 
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 09:39:35 AM by egillespie »

Davnasty

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2793
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #511 on: March 28, 2020, 09:47:00 AM »
As more people are tested, the virus "appears" to become less deadly.  Most people that have COVID-19 are asymptomatic and are never tested.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/821958435/why-death-rates-from-coronavirus-can-be-deceiving

The bolded is false. If that's your takeaway from the cited article, you have misread. It's not that people aren't being tested because they are asymptomatic, it's that they're not being tested because symptoms are not so severe that they're being hospitalized. They are likely still experiencing flu-like symptoms. There's a huge difference between asymptomatic and not being hospitalized.

Your point that mortality rates are likely lower than current testing rates would suggest is correct, however not to the degree you seem to believe. Again from the article you cited:

Quote
So testing was restricted to the sickest people. That probably contributed to early evidence that the fatality rate in Wuhan was 4% or more. A study published last week estimated that in Wuhan, the chance that someone who developed coronavirus symptoms would die was actually 1.4%.

That's 1.4% after adjustment.

Quote
In the U.S., it's likely that the case fatality rate from coronavirus will end up somewhere between 0.5% and 1%, once a broad cross-section of the population has been tested, Lawrence says.

But that's no reason for the nation to relax, he adds.

"To put it into perspective, that's 5 to 10 times more fatal than flu," Lawrence says, a disease that kills between 12,000 and 61,000 people a year.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 09:50:03 AM by Davnasty »

SwordGuy

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8955
  • Location: Fayetteville, NC
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #512 on: March 28, 2020, 09:56:14 AM »

Regarding the smart mouth asthma comment above.  I have asthma too, I've been on prednisone, hospitalized and even went through cardiac arrest due to an overdose of medicine while in a hospital.  Also, good luck to the millions of kids out there whose parents are now unemployed.  How will they get their asthma medicine and inhalers? 


If there was a Darwin Award for "missing the point", you would be a surefire winner.


beltim

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2957
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #513 on: March 28, 2020, 09:59:07 AM »
I will be more than happy to change my viewpoints as the disease progresses and more is learned.

And how many deaths are you willing to accept as the cost of waiting, instead of taking measures we know work now?  When experts in nearly every country disagree with you?  Are you really so confident of your stance?

We won't truly know most of the data you want until the pandemic is over or winding down, depending on how long it takes.  In the meantime, we need to take measures we know work.

American GenX

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 948
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #514 on: March 28, 2020, 10:13:40 AM »
I'm not aware of any deaths in younger healthy people.

Not only is it killing young people, many young people are ending up in the hospital with serious cases, even the young healthy athletic.  It's happening with increasing frequency.

Davnasty

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2793
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #515 on: March 28, 2020, 10:15:43 AM »
Even Dr. Fauci has hypothesized the actual death rate from the virus could be substantially lower than 1%:

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/coronavirus-fatality-rate-computing-difficult/#slide-1

Again, I suspect you're not reading your own citations in their entirety, but instead selecting points which support your narrative and disregarding the rest.

From your National Review citation:

Quote
Regrettably, I reckon the answer must be that even if the coronavirus dipped perceptibly below 1 percent, it would still be much worse than flu. Why? Because none less than Dr. Fauci (among others) says so. Though he recently wrote that the rate could be “considerably less than 1%,” he has also recently testified, in a House hearing, that the novel virus from China has a “mortality rate of ten times” that of seasonal flu.

Quote
I suspect that this explains the ostensible contradiction between Dr. Fauci’s two comments on the fatality rate. Context is everything. In his House testimony, Fauci was confronting a political narrative that COVID-19 is really no worse than flu, and reliance on reported cases showing a 10:1 difference was a useful rebuttal. In his essay, he was trying to demonstrate to other scientists (and whatever sliver of the public reads medical journals) the imprecision of our knowledge about exactly how much worse COVID-19 is than flu.

Quote
The biggest problem may not be the fatality rate, however marginally over or under 1 percent it turns out to be. It is that about 10 percent of those who have tested positive for the virus have required hospitalization — 6,322 out of 65,512, by my last count of the COVID Tracking Project. If this percentage holds steady, and the number of positive reported cases were to rise into the hundreds of thousands and then the millions, our medical system would be overwhelmed.


The author has some good advice for all of us when drawing conclusions from the available data:

Quote
My point is that Fauci is a scientist, and I am not. If he is humble about our state of knowledge, I need to be humility on steroids.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 10:25:35 AM by Davnasty »

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8821
  • Location: Avalon
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #516 on: March 28, 2020, 10:16:27 AM »
Do we know whether the higher percentage of deaths in people with co-morbidities is due to

1) the virus interacting with the co-morbidity to create a more severe illness,

2) having a co-morbidity means that the body is less likely to have the strength to survive a brutal 2 or 3 weeks on a ventilator,

3) someone with co-morbidities being later in the line for scarce medical resources and aggressive treatment,

4) a genetic or lifestyle element to the ability to withstand the virus which is also linked to chances of co-morbidities,

or some combination of all of these?


OtherJen

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5267
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #517 on: March 28, 2020, 10:23:00 AM »
Do we know whether the higher percentage of deaths in people with co-morbidities is due to

1) the virus interacting with the co-morbidity to create a more severe illness,

2) having a co-morbidity means that the body is less likely to have the strength to survive a brutal 2 or 3 weeks on a ventilator,

3) someone with co-morbidities being later in the line for scarce medical resources and aggressive treatment,

4) a genetic or lifestyle element to the ability to withstand the virus which is also linked to chances of co-morbidities,

or some combination of all of these?

In the USA, I'd guess 2 and 4 right now. It may well switch to 3 fairly soon as physicians become faced with a surge of patients and a shortfall of supplies with which to treat them.

Davnasty

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2793
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #518 on: March 28, 2020, 10:33:14 AM »
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/coronavirus-fatality-rate-computing-difficult/#slide-1

This is actually a really good summary of what our current data can and can't tell us. I highly recommend it.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1941
  • Location: Noo Zilind
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #519 on: March 28, 2020, 11:17:59 AM »
Do we know whether the higher percentage of deaths in people with co-morbidities is due to

1) the virus interacting with the co-morbidity to create a more severe illness,

2) having a co-morbidity means that the body is less likely to have the strength to survive a brutal 2 or 3 weeks on a ventilator,

3) someone with co-morbidities being later in the line for scarce medical resources and aggressive treatment,

4) a genetic or lifestyle element to the ability to withstand the virus which is also linked to chances of co-morbidities,

or some combination of all of these?

Way to complicate things. People are dying because the viral symptoms put enormous strain on the heart and lungs. Even people with a mild dose have routinely reported chest pain and breathlessness. If the functionality of your heart and lungs is not 100% because of underlying issues, you simply won't have the ability to overcome the stresses of the viral symptoms.

Abe

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2647
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #520 on: March 28, 2020, 01:12:37 PM »
Causes of death for our patients and reports from my friends in NYC  and Seattle say the patients develop acute respiratory distress syndrome, or ARDS. It’s essentially an inflammatory response to infection that occurs in some illnesses, and the lungs fill with fluid and dead immune cells. This kills the lung cells that exchange air and blood gases. Patients with underlying lung disease have less reserve so will decompensate from ARDS sooner than someone with normal lungs. The blood pressure within the lungs increases due to the inflammation and resulting constricted vessels, so people with heart disease also have less reserve to pump against the high pressure. Most patients who survive ARDs have long-term Lung issues and require months of rehab.

So far we are seeing about a 60-70% mortality after intubation in CA, NYC and WA. Death usually within 1-2 weeks. The majority of these patients did have lung or heart disease, but not unusually bad.

OtherJen

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5267
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #521 on: March 29, 2020, 03:36:37 PM »
Gee, white Evangelicalism doesn't protect you from COVID-19. Who would have ever guessed?

Liberty University Brings Back Its Students, and Coronavirus, Too

SwordGuy

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8955
  • Location: Fayetteville, NC
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #522 on: March 29, 2020, 03:45:25 PM »
Gee, white Evangelicalism doesn't protect you from COVID-19. Who would have ever guessed?

Liberty University Brings Back Its Students, and Coronavirus, Too

Learning not to listen to Falwell and his ilk just might be the single most important lesson those students learn.   

OtherJen

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5267
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #523 on: March 29, 2020, 03:48:52 PM »
Gee, white Evangelicalism doesn't protect you from COVID-19. Who would have ever guessed?

Liberty University Brings Back Its Students, and Coronavirus, Too

Learning not to listen to Falwell and his ilk just might be the single most important lesson those students learn.

The fact that those kids ended up there in the first place suggests that they have at least 18 years of far-right-wing brainwashing to overcome. I hope this at least gives them a bit of incentive to think for themselves.

Dancin'Dog

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1759
  • Location: Here & There
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #524 on: March 29, 2020, 07:28:43 PM »
"Give me Liberty or give me Death" takes on a new meaning.






Physicsteacher

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 554
  • Age: 37
  • Location: Arkansas
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #525 on: March 29, 2020, 10:04:12 PM »
I'm so frustrated by people in my life who pay lip service to social distancing yet seem unwilling to actually minimize contact with those outside their households. My sister-in-law, a registered nurse working in a hospital in a state with a stay at home order, had friends over for a barbecue tonight. My roommate's sister went to a bookstore, a garden center, and a pet store for dog toys this week. A former classmate went out to buy a wading pool for her kids.

ixtap

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4560
  • Age: 51
  • Location: SoCal
    • Our Sea Story
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #526 on: March 29, 2020, 10:09:35 PM »
I'm so frustrated by people in my life who pay lip service to social distancing yet seem unwilling to actually minimize contact with those outside their households. My sister-in-law, a registered nurse working in a hospital in a state with a stay at home order, had friends over for a barbecue tonight. My roommate's sister went to a bookstore, a garden center, and a pet store for dog toys this week. A former classmate went out to buy a wading pool for her kids.

Our roommate seems suspicious of our choice to go for walks nearly every day and to our boat on weekends. But she goes shopping twice a week and gets something delivered more days than not.

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2139
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #527 on: March 29, 2020, 10:23:49 PM »
My state government has said that we are not allowed to form groups of more than 2, and we are not allowed to leave our house other than for groceries, medical care, exercise, or work (where it cannot be done from home). There is an exception for households that live together - so a family of four can socialise and exercise and congregate as a four-some.

To me, that hardly seems fair. As someone who lives alone, I am not willing to spend 23 hours a day (1 hour a day for exercise) cooped up in my apartment, never seeing anyone in person, for the next 6 months. So I have set my own guidelines. The only people I physically see are the girl I'm dating, once a week, and my parents, once a fortnight. To me, the government advice should be moderated to allow people who live in a family relationship or romantic relationship but not in the same physical house to see each other.

Happy to be told I am being selfish, inconsiderate, whatever. When you have large families congregating (and still going to work), and non-essential retailers still operating as normal with no semblance of social distancing, and construction sites still operating, then there is no way that what I am doing is even a blip on the radar.

Kyle Schuant

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1314
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #528 on: March 29, 2020, 10:34:57 PM »
I'm not judging you for that, Bloop. They're getting carried away with this stuff, and it's inconsistent and muddled.

We've already inflicted two million people (including me) with unemployment and the destruction of their businesses. There will be depression and suicides, and bad marriages getting worse. People are anxious, afraid, stuck at home with their families, domestic violence is increasing. Just in case people didn't have enough drama already, they've decided to leave liquor stores open.

As incentives, carrot and stick both work. But it’s remarkable how quickly they jump to grab the stick. Here in Australia, the federal and state governments have already set aside over $200 billion to try to stop the economy from collapsing.

For this amount they could give every adult citizen some $12k - rather than police patrols and threats of fines and imprisonment, why not set aside all the other nonsense and simply pay people to stay home?

But that would be carrot. And they always reach for the stick.

Their demeanour, really, reminds me of US occupying forces - go around threatening and abusing everyone, then handing out wads of cash afterwards. They are then surprised when warm friendship does not spontaneously arise from this process.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 10:36:37 PM by Kyle Schuant »

Davnasty

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2793
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #529 on: March 29, 2020, 11:01:25 PM »
The only people I physically see are the girl I'm dating, once a week, and my parents, once a fortnight. To me, the government advice should be moderated to allow people who live in a family relationship or romantic relationship but not in the same physical house to see each other.

That sounds pretty reasonable to me.

I wonder if they're trying to keep the rules simple and straightforward but not being clear enough in the process.

Little Aussie Battler

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 230
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #530 on: March 30, 2020, 12:24:16 AM »
Bloop

I have a spare, so I’m happy to donate a toddler to keep you company!

It’s still unclear to me what the end-game is here. Are we waiting for a vaccine (which may not ever arrive)? If so, that will take more then 6 months. Are we buying time to increase medical capacity? Are we trying to maintain restrictions until normal flu season has passed? Are we trying to slowly build herd immunity?

More and more, I fear that the Australian government is simply making it up as they go along, which is why the messaging is so confusing and inconsistent. I won’t even start on the issue of paying for childcare.

Kyle Schuant

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1314
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #531 on: March 30, 2020, 12:43:09 AM »
The idea is obviously to suppress it to a level which the medical system can handle, with the view of eventually eradicating it. This was achieved with SARS, swine flu, and so on.

Little Aussie Battler

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 230
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #532 on: March 30, 2020, 12:55:31 AM »
I’m glad that it’s obvious to others.

Can you articulate the long-term strategy Kyle? How do we get from where we are today to a position where the virus is fully eradicated? What measures will be in place to achieve this, and how long is it expected to take?  What cooperation (if any) do we need from other governments, and is it clear that they agree with this course of action?

Kyle Schuant

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1314
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #533 on: March 30, 2020, 02:11:00 AM »
I don't think they have a long-term strategy. It's like a bushfire - first you try to protect the most vulnerable areas, next you try to slow the spread of it to contain it, and only after all that do you worry about getting it all put out. the danger is never really gone, as such - you expect it to flare up again here and there at some point, but you hope to be able to keep it at a level that doesn't cripple your whole country.

OtherJen

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5267
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #534 on: March 30, 2020, 04:15:47 AM »
The idea is obviously to suppress it to a level which the medical system can handle, with the view of eventually eradicating it. This was achieved with SARS, swine flu, and so on.

This. About a week ago, people in my area were making similar complaints when our state government increased the shutdown. Now, the military is building field hospitals in my county because things escalated so quickly and our regional medical systems are already reaching capacity. We don't yet know how much worse this will get. A friend told me on Friday that in a 30-year nursing career, she's never seen anything like this.

I sincerely hope that Australia shut things down in time to avoid the worst of it. Things change very quickly once people start showing up at the local ERs with severe symptoms.

deborah

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 15958
  • Age: 14
  • Location: Australia or another awesome area
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #535 on: March 30, 2020, 04:57:14 AM »
I don't think they have a long-term strategy. It's like a bushfire - first you try to protect the most vulnerable areas, next you try to slow the spread of it to contain it, and only after all that do you worry about getting it all put out. the danger is never really gone, as such - you expect it to flare up again here and there at some point, but you hope to be able to keep it at a level that doesn't cripple your whole country.
Unfortunately, ScoMo has difficulty being a leader - he has to ad lib and muddy the message! I agree with Kyle - the bushfire analogy is great!

Slow the spread: We're doomed if the hospitals are overwhelmed, like they have been in other places, so the first priority is to ensure our health system can cope. They're pretty ham-fisted about it, but the ways to do this are to expand the health care system (removing all elective surgery, shunting off stuff that doesn't require hospital expertise to other places, getting more equipment by rejigging factories and getting stuff from overseas...) and reducing the numbers of people getting it badly enough that they need hospital care (testing - we're almost leading the world in the testing per capita, getting people to isolate...). The fact that the curve is lower in Australia than in most other countries at the same stage, and the exponential progression over the last few days looks like it's slowing, means that this is possibly all working if we can keep at it for another month. Despite what the media is saying, we have far fewer deaths per million than we would expect at this stage.

As other countries are doing things that work, our government is adding them along the way. And they really need to try to keep it completely out of all our remote areas since they already have almost no health services and really poor health outcomes.

Slowing the spread also means slowing the economic spread. I think they've been trying to keep as many people employed as possible, which is what's leading to so many mixed messages. They have, and will, make some pretty stupid calls on this. We are all getting a bit angry at these - and although most of us didn't vote for the people who are in power, they're what we've got, and they're really trying. At least we haven't got Tony. I think funneling all welfare through businesses is going to make things worse, but I'm not the one having to make decisions. At least we have politicians who ARE making somewhat sensible decisions.

I don't think they've thought through how they are going to get us back to a working economy, but as Kyle said - only after stopping the spread do you worry about getting it all put out. I'd guess that they are funneling everything through business to make it easier to get it all put out, but that's about as far as they're able to go.

I think that we will be very lucky if this virus disappears - after all, some variants of the common cold are coronaviruses.


Lews Therin

  • CMTO 2023 Attendees
  • Magnum Stache
  • *
  • Posts: 3896
  • Age: 34
  • Location: Gatineau
  • Fee-only Financial Planner
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #536 on: March 30, 2020, 07:09:47 AM »
I’m glad that it’s obvious to others.

Can you articulate the long-term strategy Kyle? How do we get from where we are today to a position where the virus is fully eradicated? What measures will be in place to achieve this, and how long is it expected to take?  What cooperation (if any) do we need from other governments, and is it clear that they agree with this course of action?

One of our papers wrote an excellent article to define what we are aiming for:

https://www.macleans.ca/society/science/what-does-the-covid-19-endgame-look-like-five-simple-steps/

TLDR: the stay at home is a ''Reset'' to what we should have been doing from the very get-go. Every person with symptoms gets traced, isolated, and the people they were in contact with get alerted, isolated, and their contacts traced. That way the virus stops getting passed on.

Kyle Schuant

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1314
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #537 on: March 30, 2020, 05:35:07 PM »
I think funneling all welfare through businesses is going to make things worse, but I'm not the one having to make decisions.
I think the theory there is to preserve the businesses as much as possible. Scomo keeps talking about "six months" - I know a few medical types and they think that's an overestimate but let's take it as read. Let's say you run a little cafe with 6 employees, you've a chef doing 40hr pw, 4 wait staff and 1 kitchenhand doing 20hr pw. The chef gets $1,000pw, the others get minimum wage of $20 plus casual leave loading etc and thus a total of $500pw, nout counting superannuation and all the other small stuff. You also pay rent of $2,000pw and utilities and other stuff another few hundred.

Now comes the shutdown. You reluctantly stand your staff down. The shutdown lasts 6 months. You've no income. Landlord still wants his rent, though. Maybe if you're really unusual you have some savings, and can keep paying $2,000pw rent for 6 months. The staff go on the dole for those 6 months. Things open up again - maybe if you're lucky one of those staff will come back, you'd never get all 6. A couple will stay unemployed, a couple will go work for some other cafe, and a couple will do a different job now. You can get new staff but it takes you a few weeks and they have to settle down into the way things are done, and it's a messy couple of months. Your old customers drift back, and they don't recognise anybody, and orders get muddled and the place just doesn't feel the same - maybe your old customers go somewhere else, instead. 

But if the govt funnels $750pw through you, that's a drop for the chef but she can hack it for a bit, and it's actually more money for the wait staff and kitchenhand. You might be able to make up the other $250pw for the chef. Psychologically, they're not thinking of the money coming from govt, they're thinking of it coming from you - they're more likely to be back with you on day one of the unlocking. In a week or two they slide back into their old routine, your old customers come back and after months locked up in their homes they're now returning to their favourite cafe and everything's running as smoothly as it did when they were last there.

Obviously there will be opportunities for businesses to engage in fraud. I've no doubt there'll be lawsuits after dodgy business owners give someone $250 and keep the other $500pw for themselves, especially the places employing foreign students without half their hours on the books.

But all in all, it's not actually that bad an idea.


deborah

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 15958
  • Age: 14
  • Location: Australia or another awesome area
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #538 on: March 31, 2020, 12:34:24 AM »
I agree that it's not actually that bad an idea. It will be interesting just how many scrambling for work in the part time economy are eligible for several handouts - and maybe that will make proper full time jobs more available.

Kyle Schuant

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1314
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #539 on: March 31, 2020, 04:13:22 AM »
The question is what happens after. If you've got some waitress on $200 a fortnight who then gets $1,500 for 6 months, she's not going to be happy to go back onto $200, there'll be a lot of political pressure to up the dole or create a UBI or something.

I don't have a problem with this sort of thing as such, it's just that people often forget it has to be paid for. If you have a Scandanavian welfare system then you need Scandanavian taxes - with govt revenue and spending 45-55% of the economy. As well, while we sell off our resources cheaply to foreign-owned companies paying no taxes here, the Scandanavians sold them off expensively by means of state-owned companies, thus lessening slightly their tax burden.

The issue is that it's hard to get elected on a platform of higher taxes, much easier to get elected on a platform of higher spending. If we just have the spending without the revenue, then we get to be like the US and simply print money and hope we all die of old age before someone insists we pay it back. That's not prudent for individuals and it's not for countries, either.

It's a messy problem with no easy solutions. If - for reasons good or bad - you choose to shut down most of the economy for several months, it's going to be messy no matter what you do.

I would have slipped in a UBI there, myself. But I prefer simplicity, where possible.

deborah

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 15958
  • Age: 14
  • Location: Australia or another awesome area
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #540 on: March 31, 2020, 04:48:53 AM »
That’s why I said that funneling welfare through businesses may make things worse. You’re mad at your boss for reducing your pay at the end rather than the government, and in six months people forget that it’s not permanent. It’s going to be easier to rort too.

caracarn

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1920
  • Age: 53
  • Location: Ohio
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #541 on: April 01, 2020, 01:11:51 PM »
Proud of our governor being so forward looking that he's now garnering international kudos:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52113186

To those in the thread indicating there is no plan, I wholeheartedly disagree.  I've seen a lot of things coming together and if you want to see a coherent plan join Ohio's daily press briefings.  Until there is a vaccine or herd immunity, whichever comes first, this will keep repeating but at much lower and lower levels each time.  I think out national leadership (read executive) has be atrocious.  The medical advisors  (Fauci, Birx) are doing OK in the smoke screen and are getting more and more traction each day.  I was actually very nervous about Trump getting the country open by Easter as he said a week ago, and was thrilled to see him somehow get to the spot that he extended to April 30.  I think we will need some more time, but once we get on the downturn of new daily cases I feel comfortable with the science I have heard around that plus two weeks being the indicator for returning from the WFH rules.

My company has given us all paycuts but we have jobs and are doing them from home globally until 4/30 at least.  For something that is really hard to manage, I think most governors have done a reasonable job, though many were late.

scottish

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2716
  • Location: Ottawa
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #542 on: April 02, 2020, 09:00:22 AM »
Ok, I found a good one.   The Quebec government has put police on the bridges from Ontario to spot check drivers entering Quebec.

Linky:  https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/quebec-police-to-limit-ottawa-gatineau-border-crossings-for-covid-19-control/wcm/eac4a7dd-9633-44f9-b02f-a4a28d76f358/

The police are not wearing protective gear.


SwordGuy

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8955
  • Location: Fayetteville, NC
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #543 on: April 02, 2020, 01:35:34 PM »
I think we will need some more time, but once we get on the downturn of new daily cases I feel comfortable with the science I have heard around that plus two weeks being the indicator for returning from the WFH rules.

I had a thought about this first thing today following the scary charts from the recent briefing.  To their credit, the doctors noted that the model was probably pessimistic because it presumed New York would be the standard, which it will not be since that city started taking things seriously much later than other areas and it is very densely populated and had a lot of international travel moving through with a lot of varied points of exposure.  Comparatively, that model won't be like a town in Idaho where they initially traced all cases to one person who had contact outside the region.

What occurred to me this morning was that maybe we are seeing the beginning of a good persuasion play that will help people build confidence that we are moving past the worst of it.  By displaying very worst-case scenarios there will be a steep difference between that model and what happens in actuality.  If the drug cocktail is widely available and effective, the weather warms, and all this extreme distancing has worked then we will be far below the devastating numbers very quickly and obviously.  Showing far lower numbers will move people to say we are winning the war and they will be ready to come out of their mental bunkers to begin life again.  I really believe a huge part of this is fear and anxiety and people really need some hope and a path forward.  This might be the plan to restore some of that. 

If they are doing this on purpose it is pretty smart.  To show the worst numbers first gives people a mental boundary and when we beat those numbers by a mile we will feel like we crushed it and all this sacrifice has paid off.

Well, obviously the original plan to claim it was a hoax and claim the number of cases would go to zero very soon didn't work...

Abe

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2647
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #544 on: April 02, 2020, 01:58:17 PM »
Things seem to be improving on a country-wide level. Latest projections from UW (https://covid19.healthdata.org/) are an improvement from last week. The key number is #ventilators required, as that is the main bottleneck in resources. Currently estimating from 17k-55k at any given time, well within our nation-wide capacity of approximately 150k (assuming we shut down ORs until June, which is the current nation-wide plan). The majority of ventilated patients will die, so this is a surrogate for total deaths. They are predicting a shortage of ICU beds, but I don't believe they've taken into account upstaging regular beds to ICU status. Non-ventilated patients are manageable with higher ratios if necessary. Obviously not ideal, but we can make it work. Looks like everyone will need to stay home for a few more months (this model assumes continued isolation during the pandemic).

kenmoremmm

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 717
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #545 on: April 02, 2020, 01:59:39 PM »
what i don't understand is the end game with social distancing. if we're doing our jobs (of distancing) right, then the spread ends. but, there are plenty of people out there that DGAF, which means it's still spreading. therefore, you can never end distancing because herd immunity will not be achieved and we cannot be freed up to all suddenly get infected. meanwhile, the govt will be printing out $2T/month in stimulus just to replace the economy that would otherwise disappear, crippling the US (forever?).

my take from back in january is that the response needs to be either extreme: 100% lockdown OR 100% freedom. anything in the middle will produce the worst of all scenarios.

Abe

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2647
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #546 on: April 02, 2020, 02:22:10 PM »
what i don't understand is the end game with social distancing. if we're doing our jobs (of distancing) right, then the spread ends. but, there are plenty of people out there that DGAF, which means it's still spreading. therefore, you can never end distancing because herd immunity will not be achieved and we cannot be freed up to all suddenly get infected. meanwhile, the govt will be printing out $2T/month in stimulus just to replace the economy that would otherwise disappear, crippling the US (forever?).

my take from back in january is that the response needs to be either extreme: 100% lockdown OR 100% freedom. anything in the middle will produce the worst of all scenarios.
my understanding is that a lot of people will build up immunity and therefore even if a second or third or fourth wave hits after social distancing ends fewer people will be affected/effected/infected. Plus the hope for a vaccine.

You're correct on both points, @spartana. The end game is not avoiding endemic coronavirus, but decreasing episodes like NYC, Italy, Spain, etc. The percentage of known COVID patients with respiratory failure is ~5%, so while higher than influenza by a lot, it is manageable if spread out over time. Unfortunately, the majority of those patients are dying.

Also, essentially all virology labs in the entire world are now focused on a coronavirus vaccine, so if it is technically possible, that will happen sooner than usual. 

BigMoneyJim

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 368
  • Age: 53
  • Location: Nomadic retiree in the Rockies
    • Jim's Personal Finance Blog
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #547 on: April 02, 2020, 02:37:40 PM »
what i don't understand is the end game with social distancing.

It's time.

We will not be vaccine-less forever. We will not lack herd immunity forever (?). We will catch up with testing and better identify the pockets and individuals that need more targeted isolation instead of shotgunning the world. There may be better treatments or more time to manufacture and/or distribute needed supplies and equipment. There could be a chance for health professionals to get a break every now and then.

I don't think anybody now believes we can isolate well enough to completely eliminate this pandemic, else we wouldn't have flu or colds anymore, either. But this is what they mean by "flatten the curve": Slow the spread, lower the peak, and fewer bad things happen.

I can pretty much guarantee you social distancing will end too soon and we'll have another flare-up, but then we can clamp down again, and maybe by then we'll have more knowledge, more equipment, and the right equipment/supplies/medicines to deal with the second wave better than the first.

kenmoremmm

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 717
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #548 on: April 02, 2020, 02:45:09 PM »
what i don't understand is the end game with social distancing.
I can pretty much guarantee you social distancing will end too soon and we'll have another flare-up, but then we can clamp down again, and maybe by then we'll have more knowledge, more equipment, and the right equipment/supplies/medicines to deal with the second wave better than the first.

sure. but i mean, you end the lock downs, and a week later the virus spreads even more exponentially than it currently is, and then suddenly 50% of the population has it?

the curve flattening will be for naught. it'll spike bigly.

i follow this site:
https://ncov2019.live/

currently showing an 11% increase in cases from yesterday. rule of 72 says 6 days to double.

at peak demand (end of april?), we'll be at 4M infected.

now, let's say you remove the lockdowns. 11% becomes 40%. 2 days to double. 1 week = 2^4 = 16. so, 4M x 16 = 64M.

(obviously crude numbers used above)

BigMoneyJim

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 368
  • Age: 53
  • Location: Nomadic retiree in the Rockies
    • Jim's Personal Finance Blog
Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #549 on: April 02, 2020, 02:55:09 PM »
I'm mostly ignoring the reported numbers. We are *weeks* behind the curve in measuring/testing. We need more testing and reporting, but be careful projecting with today's numbers.

Aside from being behind in testing, it's difficult to extrapolate new cases to the general population since people who are getting tested are typically showing symptoms. In addition, there is an incubation period, so even if we could wave a magic wand and know exactly how many would test infected today we still can't yet extrapolate how many will be infected next week.

But good things are happening (and bad), and the more we can slow the spread the better off we are.

We basically have two choices: let it run its course or use the only tools we currently have to slow it while appropriate professionals catch up. The first options results in a lot more death, and not only from infections but due to overcrowded hospitals that will then underserve the normal daily accident victims, heart attacks, chronically ill, etc..

Edit: I am reminding myself I declared myself out of the "influencing others" business, especially with respect to the current pandemic, so I'm out. I'm going back to my thing and will let the world sort itself out.
« Last Edit: April 02, 2020, 02:56:44 PM by BigMoneyJim »